In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.Thi...In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.展开更多
Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals...Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals that there are significant zonal gradients of SST in all seasons of the year in the northwestern and eastern Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and western Pacific. It is also found that the variance contribution rates of the first EOF mode of every season is more than 33%. This shows that this kind of spatial distribution of the SST is stable. This pattern is named Pacific-Indian Oceans SSTA mode. Through careful analysis and comparison, an index of the mode was defined.展开更多
Based on 10 years precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） 3B42 and the best track data from China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, t...Based on 10 years precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） 3B42 and the best track data from China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, the seasonal, monthly and annual contribution of tropical cyclone （TC） precipitation to the total rainfall are analyzed over the Western North Pacific （WNP） during 1998 to 2007 from May to December. The results show that： （1） TC seasonal rainfall contribution ranges from 4% in inland regions to above 40% in ocean-regions of 15°N-25°N. TCs at higher categories contribute much more to the total precipitation. （2） On monthly scale, TCs contribute 60% to the total rainfall regionally during whole TC season, which is the maximum contribution. The peak contribution of TC rainfall averaged in multi-months of the ten years occurs in August （28%） over the whole ocean impacted by TC and in December （23%） over the whole land impacted by TC, respectively. （3） On annual scale, the maximum contribution of TC precipitation to the total rainfall are in 2004 （-30%） over ocean and in 1998 （-20%） over land, respectively. （4） The contribution of TC precipitation to the total rainfall increases 6% （decreases 6%） in El Nino （La Nifia） years compared with neutral years.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421505)the Shanghai Typhoon Foundation (2009ST09)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775060)the Program of China Mete-orological Administration (GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002)
文摘In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.
基金The research on the variation of southeast Asian monsoons and their effect on the wetness inYunnan and neighboring areas - a national foundation project (40365001)
文摘Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals that there are significant zonal gradients of SST in all seasons of the year in the northwestern and eastern Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and western Pacific. It is also found that the variance contribution rates of the first EOF mode of every season is more than 33%. This shows that this kind of spatial distribution of the SST is stable. This pattern is named Pacific-Indian Oceans SSTA mode. Through careful analysis and comparison, an index of the mode was defined.
基金supported by the Special Funds for Public Welfare of China(Grant No.GYHY201306077)CAS Strategic Priority Research Program(Grant No.XDA05100303)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41230419,91337213)the Jiangsu Provincial 2011 Program(Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change)
文摘Based on 10 years precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） 3B42 and the best track data from China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, the seasonal, monthly and annual contribution of tropical cyclone （TC） precipitation to the total rainfall are analyzed over the Western North Pacific （WNP） during 1998 to 2007 from May to December. The results show that： （1） TC seasonal rainfall contribution ranges from 4% in inland regions to above 40% in ocean-regions of 15°N-25°N. TCs at higher categories contribute much more to the total precipitation. （2） On monthly scale, TCs contribute 60% to the total rainfall regionally during whole TC season, which is the maximum contribution. The peak contribution of TC rainfall averaged in multi-months of the ten years occurs in August （28%） over the whole ocean impacted by TC and in December （23%） over the whole land impacted by TC, respectively. （3） On annual scale, the maximum contribution of TC precipitation to the total rainfall are in 2004 （-30%） over ocean and in 1998 （-20%） over land, respectively. （4） The contribution of TC precipitation to the total rainfall increases 6% （decreases 6%） in El Nino （La Nifia） years compared with neutral years.
