The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it v...The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.展开更多
The structural system failure probability(SFP) is a valuable tool for evaluating the global safety level of concrete gravity dams.Traditional methods for estimating the failure probabilities are based on defined mathe...The structural system failure probability(SFP) is a valuable tool for evaluating the global safety level of concrete gravity dams.Traditional methods for estimating the failure probabilities are based on defined mathematical descriptions,namely,limit state functions of failure modes.Several problems are to be solved in the use of traditional methods for gravity dams.One is how to define the limit state function really reflecting the mechanical mechanism of the failure mode;another is how to understand the relationship among failure modes and enable the probability of the whole structure to be determined.Performing SFP analysis for a gravity dam system is a challenging task.This work proposes a novel nonlinear finite-element-based SFP analysis method for gravity dams.Firstly,reasonable nonlinear constitutive modes for dam concrete,concrete/rock interface and rock foundation are respectively introduced according to corresponding mechanical mechanisms.Meanwhile the response surface(RS) method is used to model limit state functions of main failure modes through the Monte Carlo(MC) simulation results of the dam-interface-foundation interaction finite element(FE) analysis.Secondly,a numerical SFP method is studied to compute the probabilities of several failure modes efficiently by simple matrix integration operations.Then,the nonlinear FE-based SFP analysis methodology for gravity dams considering correlated failure modes with the additional sensitivity analysis is proposed.Finally,a comprehensive computational platform for interfacing the proposed method with the open source FE code Code Aster is developed via a freely available MATLAB software tool(FERUM).This methodology is demonstrated by a case study of an existing gravity dam analysis,in which the dominant failure modes are identified,and the corresponding performance functions are established.Then,the dam failure probability of the structural system is obtained by the proposed method considering the correlation relationship of main failure modes on the basis of the mechanical mechanism analysis with the MC-FE simulations.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC （Heat-Tech Center）, Research ＆ Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN （district heatin...The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC （Heat-Tech Center）, Research ＆ Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN （district heating network）. This work is a part of a project dedicated to develop a software which objective is to increase reliability of DHN. The research methods consisted of three approaches. First, using database of failures which happened in Warsaw DHN and repairing protocols from past 10 years, a statistics approach was applied to perform first analysis. The result was that pipelines with nominal diameter DN （nominal diameter） ≤ 150 had higher failure rate per km, than pipelines with DN 〉 150. The next step of research was to study influence of internal （corrosion caused by heat carrier, quality of materials） and external （stray currents） factor in order to assess its individual influence on failure rate of pipe and explain reasons of differences in failure rate. To end a FMEA （failure mode and＇effects analysis） will aim to identify the main failures modes appearing on DHN, to estimate the main causes of these failures and to propose the best solutions regarding the causes, the costs and the means available.展开更多
基金Project(51204201)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2011ZX05036-001,2011ZX05037-004)supported by the National Science and Technology Major Program of China+1 种基金Project(2010CB226706)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(11CX04050A)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.
基金Projects(51409167,51139001,51179066)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(201401022,201501036)supported by the Ministry of Water Resources Public Welfare Industry Research Special Fund,ChinaProjects(GG201532,GG201546)supported by the Scientific and Technological Research for Water Conservancy,Henan Province,China
文摘The structural system failure probability(SFP) is a valuable tool for evaluating the global safety level of concrete gravity dams.Traditional methods for estimating the failure probabilities are based on defined mathematical descriptions,namely,limit state functions of failure modes.Several problems are to be solved in the use of traditional methods for gravity dams.One is how to define the limit state function really reflecting the mechanical mechanism of the failure mode;another is how to understand the relationship among failure modes and enable the probability of the whole structure to be determined.Performing SFP analysis for a gravity dam system is a challenging task.This work proposes a novel nonlinear finite-element-based SFP analysis method for gravity dams.Firstly,reasonable nonlinear constitutive modes for dam concrete,concrete/rock interface and rock foundation are respectively introduced according to corresponding mechanical mechanisms.Meanwhile the response surface(RS) method is used to model limit state functions of main failure modes through the Monte Carlo(MC) simulation results of the dam-interface-foundation interaction finite element(FE) analysis.Secondly,a numerical SFP method is studied to compute the probabilities of several failure modes efficiently by simple matrix integration operations.Then,the nonlinear FE-based SFP analysis methodology for gravity dams considering correlated failure modes with the additional sensitivity analysis is proposed.Finally,a comprehensive computational platform for interfacing the proposed method with the open source FE code Code Aster is developed via a freely available MATLAB software tool(FERUM).This methodology is demonstrated by a case study of an existing gravity dam analysis,in which the dominant failure modes are identified,and the corresponding performance functions are established.Then,the dam failure probability of the structural system is obtained by the proposed method considering the correlation relationship of main failure modes on the basis of the mechanical mechanism analysis with the MC-FE simulations.
文摘The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC （Heat-Tech Center）, Research ＆ Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN （district heating network）. This work is a part of a project dedicated to develop a software which objective is to increase reliability of DHN. The research methods consisted of three approaches. First, using database of failures which happened in Warsaw DHN and repairing protocols from past 10 years, a statistics approach was applied to perform first analysis. The result was that pipelines with nominal diameter DN （nominal diameter） ≤ 150 had higher failure rate per km, than pipelines with DN 〉 150. The next step of research was to study influence of internal （corrosion caused by heat carrier, quality of materials） and external （stray currents） factor in order to assess its individual influence on failure rate of pipe and explain reasons of differences in failure rate. To end a FMEA （failure mode and＇effects analysis） will aim to identify the main failures modes appearing on DHN, to estimate the main causes of these failures and to propose the best solutions regarding the causes, the costs and the means available.
