In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5...In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5） are examined. Compared with the current summer climate （1975-2005）, both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period （average period 2021-2051）. In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent （approximately 4.2%）. Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.展开更多
Expecting that agricultural yield is highly dependent on climatic conditions, particularly water availability and suitable temperature, an agroclimatic study was carried out on rice crops during three different season...Expecting that agricultural yield is highly dependent on climatic conditions, particularly water availability and suitable temperature, an agroclimatic study was carried out on rice crops during three different seasons in four regions of Bangladesh. Data on climate （surface air temperature and precipitation） and seasonal rice production were examined for the period 1986-2006 from 18 rice growth observatories. The relationship between climate and rice production was statistically analyzed by removing long-term trends so that the effects of improved irrigation, which results in a general increase in crop production, may be removed. The analysis involved both single and multiple regressions. The results suggested that, during monsoon and summer, higher temperatures had negative effects on rice production, especially in the northwestern （NW） region. In winter, positive effects were observed throughout Bangladesh. Since the annual mean temperature was positively correlated with those in the three seasons individually, the annual temperature had negative effects on the annual rice production only in the NW region, while it had positive effects in the central and southern regions. With the exception of the NW region, it was basically dry, excessive rainfall both in summer and monsoon yielded floods and reduced rice yield. In winter, more rainfall showed positive effects on crop production only in the central region, which was least irrigated. These findings suggested that accelerated atmospheric warming would result in serious damage to crops during summer and monsoon. Reliable prediction of future crop production will rely on the temperature and rainfall trends in individual seasons.展开更多
Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits...Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits show that at most stations, there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights, as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days, cold nights, frost days, and annual diurnal tem- perature range （DTR）. Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/1 0yr, 3.95 d/10yr, -1.88 d/10yr, -4.27 d/10yr, -4.21 d/10yr and -0.20℃/10yr, respectively. Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results, but there is a large seasonal difference. A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales, which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem- perature. For precipitation indices, the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency, i.e. extreme precipitation days （RD95p）, intensity （RINTEN）, proportion （RPROP） and maximum consecutive wet days （CWD）, but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days （CDD）, which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation （PRCPTOT）. Seasonally, PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer, but generally not significant. In summary, this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.展开更多
To explore the energy saving effect of building envelope, the experiments were carried out through a comparison of basic cubicle in summer. Experiments show that if energy efficiency measures are applied only in the e...To explore the energy saving effect of building envelope, the experiments were carried out through a comparison of basic cubicle in summer. Experiments show that if energy efficiency measures are applied only in the external walls and windows, the energy saving cubicles have an average energy efficiency ratio of 27.75% and 27.05% when the air change rates are 1.1 and 1.4 h-1 in summer, with both values being over the standard target value by 25%. And the indoor air temperature of the energy saving cubicle is below that of the basic cubicle. The daily mean temperature difference between the interior surface of insulation wall and no insulation reaches 1.47℃, and the mean temperature difference is up to 8.52℃ between the interior surface and exterior surface of insulating glass and single glass. The two cubicles were simulated for energy consumption using VisualDOE4.0 software under real weather conditions in summer. The results show that the mean deviation is 10.02% between experimental and simulated energy efficiency ratio. The correctness and validity of simulation results of the VisualDOE4.0 software are proved.展开更多
The Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）is a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability（ISV）and has prominent impacts on the climate of the tropics and extratropics.Predicting the MJO using fully coupled clima...The Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）is a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability（ISV）and has prominent impacts on the climate of the tropics and extratropics.Predicting the MJO using fully coupled climate system models is an interesting and important topic.This paper reports upon a recent progress in MJO ensemble prediction using the climate system model of the Beijing Climate Center,BCC-CSM1.1（m）;specifically,the development of three different initialization schemes in the BCC ISV/MJO prediction system,IMPRESS.Three sets of 10-yr hindcasts were separately conducted with the three initialization schemes.The results showed that the IMPRESS is able to usefully predict the MJO,but is sensitive to the initialization scheme used and becomes better with the initialization of moisture.In addition,a new ensemble approach was developed by averaging the predictions generated from the different initialization schemes,helping to address the uncertainty in the initial values of the MJO.The ensemble-mean MJO prediction showed significant improvement,with a valid prediction length of about 20 days in terms of the different criteria,i.e.,a correlation score beyond 0.5,a RMSE lower than 1.414,or a mean square skill score beyond 0.This study indicates that utilizing the different initialization schemes of this climate model may be an efficient approach when forming ensemble predictions of the MJO.展开更多
Zonal heat advection （ZHA） plays an important role in the variability of the thermal structure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, especially in the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP）. Using the Simple Ocean Data Assimil...Zonal heat advection （ZHA） plays an important role in the variability of the thermal structure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, especially in the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP）. Using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Version 2.02/4 for the period 1958-2007, this paper presents a detailed analysis of the climatological and seasonal ZHA in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climatologically, ZHA shows a zonal- band spatial pattern associated with equatorial currents and contributes to forming the irregular eastern boundary of the WPWP （EBWP）. Seasonal variation of ZHA with a positive peak from February to July is most prominent in the Nifio3.4 region, where the EBWP is located. The physical mechanism of the seasonal cycle in this region is examined. The mean advection of anomalous temperature, anomalous advection of mean temperature and eddy advection account for 31%, 51%, and 18% of the total seasonal variations, respectively. This suggests that seasonal changes of the South Equatorial Current induced by variability of the trade winds are the dominant contributor to the anomalous advection of mean temperature and hence, the seasonality of ZHA. Heat budget analysis shows that ZHA and surface heat flux make comparable contributions to the seasonal heat variation in the Nifio3.4 region, and that ZHA cools the upper ocean throughout the calendar year except in late boreal spring. The connection between ZHA and EBWP is further explored and a statistical relationship between EBWP, ZHA and surface heat flux is established based on least squares fitting.展开更多
The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Prov-ince, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model （HadCM3） coupled with the ...The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Prov-ince, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model （HadCM3） coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009. The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series, derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435~C per decade, and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade. Compared with other seasons, the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend, while a significant upward trend in autumn. The annual streamflow demonstrates a general down-ward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m^3/s per decade. The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn, respectively. The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m^3/s per decade, which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow. The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.展开更多
Changes in the lake areas of Xainza basin in the past 33 years （1976 to 2008） were studied using Landsat data from Multispectral Scanners （1973- 1977）, Thematic Mapper （1989-1992, 2007-2009）, and Enhanced Themat...Changes in the lake areas of Xainza basin in the past 33 years （1976 to 2008） were studied using Landsat data from Multispectral Scanners （1973- 1977）, Thematic Mapper （1989-1992, 2007-2009）, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus （1999-2002）. The results indicated that lakes in the study area evidently expanded from 1976 to 2008, with total expansion of 1512.64km2. The mean annual air temperature presented an upward trend with certain fluctuations from 1966 to 2008. The air temperature rise rates in the cold season （o.31~C/loa） were higher than those in the hot season （0.24℃/1oa）, in the Xainza station example. Precipitation exhibited evident seasonal differences. Mean annual precipitation in hot season is 281.48 mm and cold season is 32.66 mm from 1966 to 2008 in study area. Precipitation in the hot season was the major contributor to the increase in annual precipitation. Grey relational analysis （GRA） was used to study the response of lake areas to climatic factors. The mean air temperature and precipitation were selected as comoared series, and the lake areas were regarded as the reference series. The grey relational grade （GRG） between compared series and reference series were calculated through GRA. The results indicated that changes in lake areas were mainly affected by climatic factors in the hot season. Lakes in this region were classified into three grades, namely, Grades I, II, and III according to the recharge source and elevation. The GRGs of each series varied for different grade lakes： the area of Grade III lakes were the most relevant to the hot season factors, the GRGs of precipitation and air temperature were 0.7570 and 0.6606; followed by the Grade II lakes; Grade I lakes were more sensitive to the air temperature.展开更多
Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China （Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces）, this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant incre...Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China （Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces）, this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961 -2010. The increasing rate was 0.15℃ per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest （0.27℃ per decade）. The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of -0.10℃ per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961-2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased; change of precipitation in spring was not obvious; precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was -3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d-1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened.展开更多
To reveal the ecological mechanism of spatial patterns of plant phenology and spatial sensitivity of plant phenology responses to climate change,we used Ulmus pumila leaf unfolding and leaf fall data at 46 stations of...To reveal the ecological mechanism of spatial patterns of plant phenology and spatial sensitivity of plant phenology responses to climate change,we used Ulmus pumila leaf unfolding and leaf fall data at 46 stations of China's temperate zone during the period 1986-2005 to simulate 20-year mean and yearly spatial patterns of the beginning and end dates of the Ulmus pumila growing season by establishing air temperature-based spatial phenology models,and validate these models by extensive spatial extrapolation.Results show that the spatial patterns of 20-year mean and yearly February-April or September-November temperatures control the spatial patterns of 20-year mean and yearly beginning or end dates of the growing season.Spatial series of mean beginning dates shows a significantly negative correlation with spatial series of mean February-April temperatures at the 46 stations.The mean spring spatial phenology model explained 90% of beginning date variance(p<0.001) with a Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of 4.7 days.In contrast,spatial series of mean end dates displays a significantly positive correlation with spatial series of mean September-November temperatures at the 46 stations.The mean autumn spatial phenology model explained 79% of end date variance(p<0.001) with a RMSE of 6 days.Similarly,spatial series of yearly beginning dates correlates negatively with spatial series of yearly February-April temperatures and the explained variances of yearly spring spatial phenology models to beginning date are between 72%-87%(p<0.001),whereas spatial series of yearly end dates correlates positively with spatial series of yearly September-November temperatures and the explained variances of yearly autumn spatial phenology models to end date are between 48%-76%(p<0.001).The overall RMSEs of yearly models in simulating beginning and end dates at all modeling stations are 7.3 days and 9 days,respectively.The spatial prediction accuracies of growing season's beginning and end dates based on both 20-year mean and yearly models are close to the spatial simulation accuracies of these models,indicating that the models have a strong spatial extrapolation capability.Further analysis displays that the negative spatial response rate of growing season's beginning date to air temperature was larger in warmer years with higher regional mean February-April temperatures than in colder years with lower regional mean February-April temperatures.This finding implies that climate warming in winter and spring may enhance sensitivity of the spatial response of growing season's beginning date to air temperature.展开更多
Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia were performed by using The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), nested within the NA...Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia were performed by using The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), nested within the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM/CCM3. Two sets of simulations were conducted at 20-km grid spacings, one for present day (1961-1990) and one for the future climate (2071-2100, IPCC A2 scenario). Simulations of present climate conditions over China by RegCM3 and FvGCM were compared against observations to assess the model performance. Results showed that both models repro- duced the observed spatial structure of 500 hPa height, surface air temperature and precipitation. Compared with FvGCM, RegCM3 provided increasing spatial detail of surface variables. Furthermore, RegCM3 improved the simulation of monsoon precipitation over the region. Changes in the mean temperature and precipitation were analyzed and compared between the two models. Significant warming in the end of the 21st century was simulated by both models in December-January-February (DJF), June-July-August (JJA), and the annual mean. In DJF, greater warming was simulated by FvGCM over Northeast and Northwest China, as well as the Tibetan Plateau, compared with RegCM. In JJA, RegCM3 simulated greater warming over northern China, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Simulated changes in DJF precipitation showed similar spatial patterns between the two models. In JJA, while FvGCM projected a prevailing increase of monsoon precipitation over China, which is in agreement with other global models, RegCM3 projected extended areas of decreased precipitation. Changes in the variability for annual mean temperature and precipitation also are presented.展开更多
The data observed by a spectral airglow temperature imager （SATI） at Beijing National Observatory of Space Environment from July 23, 2008 to July 3l, 2009 are used to study night mesopause temperature in Beijing. Fr...The data observed by a spectral airglow temperature imager （SATI） at Beijing National Observatory of Space Environment from July 23, 2008 to July 3l, 2009 are used to study night mesopause temperature in Beijing. From variations of temperature at 87 and 94 km obtained from OH （6-2） and 02 （0-1） airglow spectra, temperature at night is shown lowest in the summer and highest in the winter. In summer, average temperature at 87 km is 173.9 K, lower than average temperature 180.1 K at 94 km. But in winter, average temperature at 87 Ion is 201.2 K, higher than average temperature 194.8 K at 94 kin. The altitude of mesopause in Beijing is below 87 km in summer and above 94 km in winter. There are about 120-150 days when the mesopause locates below 87 km, which is in agreement with the results of SABER/TIMED. Variations of temperatures at 87 and 94 km are analyzed by harmonic method. Our results show that amplitudes of annual oscillation of temperature at 87 and 94 km are 17.5 and 7.8 K respectively. Amplitudes of semi-annual oscillation at 87 and 94 km are 1.6 and 5.3 K, which are smaller than those of annual oscillation. Although there are differences among different observations because of different locations and different instruments, our results are in general agreement with observation at similar latitude as Beijing.展开更多
The nightly mean mesospheric temperature profiles between 80 and 107 km, observed by Na lidar, over Fort Collins, Colorado （41°N, 105°W） from 1990 to 2010, are employed to research the temporal and spatial...The nightly mean mesospheric temperature profiles between 80 and 107 km, observed by Na lidar, over Fort Collins, Colorado （41°N, 105°W） from 1990 to 2010, are employed to research the temporal and spatial variations and mesopause. We find that the maximum mean temperature is in summer months above 95 kin, but reverse below 95 kin, and there is a cooler region below 185 K around 97 km in August. The largest seasonal variation is 39.2 K at 81 kin, and the minimum is 6.5 K at 96.5 km. The maximum standard derivation in spring and autumn months are larger than other seasons above 105 kin, but the temperatures in March, June and September are lower than the other months between 82 km and 100 km where winter is the largest season. Moreover, the seasonal variations of the temperature are about 36, 8 and 21 K at 85, 95 and 105 km, respectively, winter is colder and summer is warmer above 97.5 km, but reverse below 92 km. The mesopause height is around 102 km in winter, but 84 km in summer, and the mean speed of decreasing or increasing of the mesopause height is about 5 km/month in spring and autumn months which are about 90 km. The lasting time of the mesopause in winter is near 6 months, longer than other seasons, and the mesopause temperature is about 165 K in cool summer, and 185 K in warm winter.展开更多
基金This research was supported by the National Key R＆D Program of China （2017YFA0603802）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41661144005 and 41320104007）, and the CAS-PKU Joint Research Program. We would like to thanks the IPCC for providing the CMIP5 datasets （http：//www.ipccdata.org/sim/gcm_monthly/AR5/Reference-Archive.html）.
文摘In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5） are examined. Compared with the current summer climate （1975-2005）, both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period （average period 2021-2051）. In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent （approximately 4.2%）. Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.
文摘Expecting that agricultural yield is highly dependent on climatic conditions, particularly water availability and suitable temperature, an agroclimatic study was carried out on rice crops during three different seasons in four regions of Bangladesh. Data on climate （surface air temperature and precipitation） and seasonal rice production were examined for the period 1986-2006 from 18 rice growth observatories. The relationship between climate and rice production was statistically analyzed by removing long-term trends so that the effects of improved irrigation, which results in a general increase in crop production, may be removed. The analysis involved both single and multiple regressions. The results suggested that, during monsoon and summer, higher temperatures had negative effects on rice production, especially in the northwestern （NW） region. In winter, positive effects were observed throughout Bangladesh. Since the annual mean temperature was positively correlated with those in the three seasons individually, the annual temperature had negative effects on the annual rice production only in the NW region, while it had positive effects in the central and southern regions. With the exception of the NW region, it was basically dry, excessive rainfall both in summer and monsoon yielded floods and reduced rice yield. In winter, more rainfall showed positive effects on crop production only in the central region, which was least irrigated. These findings suggested that accelerated atmospheric warming would result in serious damage to crops during summer and monsoon. Reliable prediction of future crop production will rely on the temperature and rainfall trends in individual seasons.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40901028)
文摘Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits show that at most stations, there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights, as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days, cold nights, frost days, and annual diurnal tem- perature range （DTR）. Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/1 0yr, 3.95 d/10yr, -1.88 d/10yr, -4.27 d/10yr, -4.21 d/10yr and -0.20℃/10yr, respectively. Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results, but there is a large seasonal difference. A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales, which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem- perature. For precipitation indices, the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency, i.e. extreme precipitation days （RD95p）, intensity （RINTEN）, proportion （RPROP） and maximum consecutive wet days （CWD）, but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days （CDD）, which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation （PRCPTOT）. Seasonally, PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer, but generally not significant. In summary, this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.
基金Project(2006BAJ01A05) supported by National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the 11th Five-year Plan Period of China
文摘To explore the energy saving effect of building envelope, the experiments were carried out through a comparison of basic cubicle in summer. Experiments show that if energy efficiency measures are applied only in the external walls and windows, the energy saving cubicles have an average energy efficiency ratio of 27.75% and 27.05% when the air change rates are 1.1 and 1.4 h-1 in summer, with both values being over the standard target value by 25%. And the indoor air temperature of the energy saving cubicle is below that of the basic cubicle. The daily mean temperature difference between the interior surface of insulation wall and no insulation reaches 1.47℃, and the mean temperature difference is up to 8.52℃ between the interior surface and exterior surface of insulating glass and single glass. The two cubicles were simulated for energy consumption using VisualDOE4.0 software under real weather conditions in summer. The results show that the mean deviation is 10.02% between experimental and simulated energy efficiency ratio. The correctness and validity of simulation results of the VisualDOE4.0 software are proved.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2015CB453203)the China Meteorological Special Project(Grant No.GYHY201406022)the LCS/CMA Open Funds for Young Scholars(2014)
文摘The Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）is a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability（ISV）and has prominent impacts on the climate of the tropics and extratropics.Predicting the MJO using fully coupled climate system models is an interesting and important topic.This paper reports upon a recent progress in MJO ensemble prediction using the climate system model of the Beijing Climate Center,BCC-CSM1.1（m）;specifically,the development of three different initialization schemes in the BCC ISV/MJO prediction system,IMPRESS.Three sets of 10-yr hindcasts were separately conducted with the three initialization schemes.The results showed that the IMPRESS is able to usefully predict the MJO,but is sensitive to the initialization scheme used and becomes better with the initialization of moisture.In addition,a new ensemble approach was developed by averaging the predictions generated from the different initialization schemes,helping to address the uncertainty in the initial values of the MJO.The ensemble-mean MJO prediction showed significant improvement,with a valid prediction length of about 20 days in terms of the different criteria,i.e.,a correlation score beyond 0.5,a RMSE lower than 1.414,or a mean square skill score beyond 0.This study indicates that utilizing the different initialization schemes of this climate model may be an efficient approach when forming ensemble predictions of the MJO.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2012CB417401)the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program(No.XDA10010104)
文摘Zonal heat advection （ZHA） plays an important role in the variability of the thermal structure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, especially in the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP）. Using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Version 2.02/4 for the period 1958-2007, this paper presents a detailed analysis of the climatological and seasonal ZHA in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climatologically, ZHA shows a zonal- band spatial pattern associated with equatorial currents and contributes to forming the irregular eastern boundary of the WPWP （EBWP）. Seasonal variation of ZHA with a positive peak from February to July is most prominent in the Nifio3.4 region, where the EBWP is located. The physical mechanism of the seasonal cycle in this region is examined. The mean advection of anomalous temperature, anomalous advection of mean temperature and eddy advection account for 31%, 51%, and 18% of the total seasonal variations, respectively. This suggests that seasonal changes of the South Equatorial Current induced by variability of the trade winds are the dominant contributor to the anomalous advection of mean temperature and hence, the seasonality of ZHA. Heat budget analysis shows that ZHA and surface heat flux make comparable contributions to the seasonal heat variation in the Nifio3.4 region, and that ZHA cools the upper ocean throughout the calendar year except in late boreal spring. The connection between ZHA and EBWP is further explored and a statistical relationship between EBWP, ZHA and surface heat flux is established based on least squares fitting.
基金Under the auspices of Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment(No.2009ZX07526-006-04-01)
文摘The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Prov-ince, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model （HadCM3） coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009. The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series, derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435~C per decade, and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade. Compared with other seasons, the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend, while a significant upward trend in autumn. The annual streamflow demonstrates a general down-ward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m^3/s per decade. The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn, respectively. The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m^3/s per decade, which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow. The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.
基金financially supported by National Science and Technology Support Project (Grant No. 2012BAC19B05)
文摘Changes in the lake areas of Xainza basin in the past 33 years （1976 to 2008） were studied using Landsat data from Multispectral Scanners （1973- 1977）, Thematic Mapper （1989-1992, 2007-2009）, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus （1999-2002）. The results indicated that lakes in the study area evidently expanded from 1976 to 2008, with total expansion of 1512.64km2. The mean annual air temperature presented an upward trend with certain fluctuations from 1966 to 2008. The air temperature rise rates in the cold season （o.31~C/loa） were higher than those in the hot season （0.24℃/1oa）, in the Xainza station example. Precipitation exhibited evident seasonal differences. Mean annual precipitation in hot season is 281.48 mm and cold season is 32.66 mm from 1966 to 2008 in study area. Precipitation in the hot season was the major contributor to the increase in annual precipitation. Grey relational analysis （GRA） was used to study the response of lake areas to climatic factors. The mean air temperature and precipitation were selected as comoared series, and the lake areas were regarded as the reference series. The grey relational grade （GRG） between compared series and reference series were calculated through GRA. The results indicated that changes in lake areas were mainly affected by climatic factors in the hot season. Lakes in this region were classified into three grades, namely, Grades I, II, and III according to the recharge source and elevation. The GRGs of each series varied for different grade lakes： the area of Grade III lakes were the most relevant to the hot season factors, the GRGs of precipitation and air temperature were 0.7570 and 0.6606; followed by the Grade II lakes; Grade I lakes were more sensitive to the air temperature.
基金supported by the Climate Change Special Project of China Meteorological Administration:The Assessment Report Preparation of the Climate Change of Central China (No. CCSF-10-04)
文摘Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China （Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces）, this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961 -2010. The increasing rate was 0.15℃ per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest （0.27℃ per decade）. The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of -0.10℃ per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961-2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased; change of precipitation in spring was not obvious; precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was -3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d-1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.40871029 and 41071027)
文摘To reveal the ecological mechanism of spatial patterns of plant phenology and spatial sensitivity of plant phenology responses to climate change,we used Ulmus pumila leaf unfolding and leaf fall data at 46 stations of China's temperate zone during the period 1986-2005 to simulate 20-year mean and yearly spatial patterns of the beginning and end dates of the Ulmus pumila growing season by establishing air temperature-based spatial phenology models,and validate these models by extensive spatial extrapolation.Results show that the spatial patterns of 20-year mean and yearly February-April or September-November temperatures control the spatial patterns of 20-year mean and yearly beginning or end dates of the growing season.Spatial series of mean beginning dates shows a significantly negative correlation with spatial series of mean February-April temperatures at the 46 stations.The mean spring spatial phenology model explained 90% of beginning date variance(p<0.001) with a Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of 4.7 days.In contrast,spatial series of mean end dates displays a significantly positive correlation with spatial series of mean September-November temperatures at the 46 stations.The mean autumn spatial phenology model explained 79% of end date variance(p<0.001) with a RMSE of 6 days.Similarly,spatial series of yearly beginning dates correlates negatively with spatial series of yearly February-April temperatures and the explained variances of yearly spring spatial phenology models to beginning date are between 72%-87%(p<0.001),whereas spatial series of yearly end dates correlates positively with spatial series of yearly September-November temperatures and the explained variances of yearly autumn spatial phenology models to end date are between 48%-76%(p<0.001).The overall RMSEs of yearly models in simulating beginning and end dates at all modeling stations are 7.3 days and 9 days,respectively.The spatial prediction accuracies of growing season's beginning and end dates based on both 20-year mean and yearly models are close to the spatial simulation accuracies of these models,indicating that the models have a strong spatial extrapolation capability.Further analysis displays that the negative spatial response rate of growing season's beginning date to air temperature was larger in warmer years with higher regional mean February-April temperatures than in colder years with lower regional mean February-April temperatures.This finding implies that climate warming in winter and spring may enhance sensitivity of the spatial response of growing season's beginning date to air temperature.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421407)the R & D Special Fund for Public Welfare (Grant Nos. Industry Meteorology-GYHY200806010 and Forestry-200804001)
文摘Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia were performed by using The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), nested within the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM/CCM3. Two sets of simulations were conducted at 20-km grid spacings, one for present day (1961-1990) and one for the future climate (2071-2100, IPCC A2 scenario). Simulations of present climate conditions over China by RegCM3 and FvGCM were compared against observations to assess the model performance. Results showed that both models repro- duced the observed spatial structure of 500 hPa height, surface air temperature and precipitation. Compared with FvGCM, RegCM3 provided increasing spatial detail of surface variables. Furthermore, RegCM3 improved the simulation of monsoon precipitation over the region. Changes in the mean temperature and precipitation were analyzed and compared between the two models. Significant warming in the end of the 21st century was simulated by both models in December-January-February (DJF), June-July-August (JJA), and the annual mean. In DJF, greater warming was simulated by FvGCM over Northeast and Northwest China, as well as the Tibetan Plateau, compared with RegCM. In JJA, RegCM3 simulated greater warming over northern China, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Simulated changes in DJF precipitation showed similar spatial patterns between the two models. In JJA, while FvGCM projected a prevailing increase of monsoon precipitation over China, which is in agreement with other global models, RegCM3 projected extended areas of decreased precipitation. Changes in the variability for annual mean temperature and precipitation also are presented.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40974086)the National Important Basic Research Project (Grant No. 2011CB811405)
文摘The data observed by a spectral airglow temperature imager （SATI） at Beijing National Observatory of Space Environment from July 23, 2008 to July 3l, 2009 are used to study night mesopause temperature in Beijing. From variations of temperature at 87 and 94 km obtained from OH （6-2） and 02 （0-1） airglow spectra, temperature at night is shown lowest in the summer and highest in the winter. In summer, average temperature at 87 km is 173.9 K, lower than average temperature 180.1 K at 94 km. But in winter, average temperature at 87 Ion is 201.2 K, higher than average temperature 194.8 K at 94 kin. The altitude of mesopause in Beijing is below 87 km in summer and above 94 km in winter. There are about 120-150 days when the mesopause locates below 87 km, which is in agreement with the results of SABER/TIMED. Variations of temperatures at 87 and 94 km are analyzed by harmonic method. Our results show that amplitudes of annual oscillation of temperature at 87 and 94 km are 17.5 and 7.8 K respectively. Amplitudes of semi-annual oscillation at 87 and 94 km are 1.6 and 5.3 K, which are smaller than those of annual oscillation. Although there are differences among different observations because of different locations and different instruments, our results are in general agreement with observation at similar latitude as Beijing.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40505005,41304146)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories of China
文摘The nightly mean mesospheric temperature profiles between 80 and 107 km, observed by Na lidar, over Fort Collins, Colorado （41°N, 105°W） from 1990 to 2010, are employed to research the temporal and spatial variations and mesopause. We find that the maximum mean temperature is in summer months above 95 kin, but reverse below 95 kin, and there is a cooler region below 185 K around 97 km in August. The largest seasonal variation is 39.2 K at 81 kin, and the minimum is 6.5 K at 96.5 km. The maximum standard derivation in spring and autumn months are larger than other seasons above 105 kin, but the temperatures in March, June and September are lower than the other months between 82 km and 100 km where winter is the largest season. Moreover, the seasonal variations of the temperature are about 36, 8 and 21 K at 85, 95 and 105 km, respectively, winter is colder and summer is warmer above 97.5 km, but reverse below 92 km. The mesopause height is around 102 km in winter, but 84 km in summer, and the mean speed of decreasing or increasing of the mesopause height is about 5 km/month in spring and autumn months which are about 90 km. The lasting time of the mesopause in winter is near 6 months, longer than other seasons, and the mesopause temperature is about 165 K in cool summer, and 185 K in warm winter.
