为探究变化环境下雅鲁藏布江流域环境流量组分与水文情势变化情况,采用改进后生态最相关水文指标ERHIs(The most Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indicators)、RVA(Range of Variability Approach)法定量分析了1965—2018年间不同阶...为探究变化环境下雅鲁藏布江流域环境流量组分与水文情势变化情况,采用改进后生态最相关水文指标ERHIs(The most Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indicators)、RVA(Range of Variability Approach)法定量分析了1965—2018年间不同阶段不同环境组分下的雅鲁藏布江流域内水文情势的变化情况,并结合5种突变检验方法对指标进行验证。结果表明,通过EasyDHM插补数据是可行的,参数优化后的Nash系数最大为0.97,最小为0.67,均在合理范围内,在缺资料地区运用较好。针对雅鲁藏布江2个断面强变异指标改变度计算结果均表明雅江中下游地区的水文改变度为高度改变。在指标选取方面,生态水文改变过程的指标体系(Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration,IHA)参数之间的相关性较高,指标间的冗余问题十分突出。ERHIs指标具有一定的合理性,不仅有效缓解了IHA的冗余性问题,还有利于抓住最关键的生态水文变量,对生态水文研究、流域水资源管理和生态保护都具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义,为短缺水文资料地区的生态评估提供参考。展开更多
进入21世纪以来,受气候变化与人类活动因素叠加影响,鄱阳湖退水时间提前、枯水期延长、水位降低等问题频发,呈现出常态化、趋势化特征,给鄱阳湖湖区生产生活带来巨大挑战。运用趋势检验及突变检验的方法分析鄱阳湖湖区1989~2020年5个水...进入21世纪以来,受气候变化与人类活动因素叠加影响,鄱阳湖退水时间提前、枯水期延长、水位降低等问题频发,呈现出常态化、趋势化特征,给鄱阳湖湖区生产生活带来巨大挑战。运用趋势检验及突变检验的方法分析鄱阳湖湖区1989~2020年5个水文站(星子、棠荫、康山、都昌和湖口)年均水位的变化趋势;耦合可细化人类活动影响的PCR-GLOBWB(PCRaster Global Water Balance)模型与可预测时间序列的LSTM长短期记忆神经网络模型,结合IHA/RVA法,量化气候变化与人类活动对鄱阳湖的影响。结果表明:受人类活动影响,鄱阳湖水位呈现下降趋势,在2003年鄱阳湖水位发生显著变异,同时,鄱阳湖水位整体改变度由低度改变上升到中度改变。以星子站为例,人类活动是鄱阳湖水文情势变化的主要驱动因素,贡献率达110.62%,气候变化对其贡献率仅为-10.62%。研究成果可为鄱阳湖的水资源科学管理调控提供依据。展开更多
洞庭湖是长江中下游的重要大型通江湖泊,其防洪、生态地位突出。本文采用滑动平均、M-K趋势检验等数理统计方法,分析三峡建库前后的洞庭湖水文情势变化,结果表明:从入出湖径流量变化分析,洞庭湖入湖组成中荆江三口径流量显著下降,三峡...洞庭湖是长江中下游的重要大型通江湖泊,其防洪、生态地位突出。本文采用滑动平均、M-K趋势检验等数理统计方法,分析三峡建库前后的洞庭湖水文情势变化,结果表明:从入出湖径流量变化分析,洞庭湖入湖组成中荆江三口径流量显著下降,三峡建库后减少44%,洞庭四水来水无明显变化,水量占比上四水比例增加、荆江三口比例下降,出湖径流量呈显著下降趋势,三峡建库后减少了12.8%,主要来自于荆江三口径流量的减少;从湖区代表站七里山站特征水位变化分析,年际、年代际均呈显著上升趋势,三峡建库后七里山站平均水位抬高0.18 m,逐月平均水位具有汛前水位抬高、汛后水位降低的特点,其中抬高、降低幅度最大的月份分别为3月、10月,三峡建库前后对年最高水位无明显影响,建库后年最低水位出现时间明显提前、水位值明显抬高。该成果可为流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用等方面提供基础规律支撑。Dongting Lake is an important large-scale lake that can regulate and store water of Changjiang River, with outstanding flood control and ecological function. This article uses mathematical statistical methods such as moving average and Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze the changes in hydrological regime of Dongting Lake before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results show that the runoff in the three outlets along Jingjiang River significantly decreased by 44% after the operation of the Three Gorges, but the runoff of the four branches of Dongting Lake unchanged. The proportion of the runoff of the four branches to the total runoff of Dongting Lake increased and the proportion of the three outlets along Jingjiang River obviously decreased. The outflow of the Dongting Lake showed a significant downward trend, which decreased by 12.8% after the operation of the reservoir, mainly due to the decrease in the three outlets along Jingjiang River. From the analysis of the characteristic water level changes at Qilishan Station, a representative station in Dongting Lake, there is a significant upward trend between annual and decadal water levels. After the operation of the reservoir, the average water level at Qilishan station has risen by 0.18 meters, and the monthly average water level has the characteristics of rising before the flood season and falling after the flood season. The months with the largest degree of rise and fall are March and October, respectively. The operation of the reservoir has no significant impact on the annual highest water level. After the operation, the occurrence time of the annual minimum water level is significantly earlier, and the water level value rises. This conclusion can provide basic technical support for the prevention of water and drought disasters and the utilization of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin.展开更多
文摘为探究变化环境下雅鲁藏布江流域环境流量组分与水文情势变化情况,采用改进后生态最相关水文指标ERHIs(The most Ecologically Relevant Hydrologic Indicators)、RVA(Range of Variability Approach)法定量分析了1965—2018年间不同阶段不同环境组分下的雅鲁藏布江流域内水文情势的变化情况,并结合5种突变检验方法对指标进行验证。结果表明,通过EasyDHM插补数据是可行的,参数优化后的Nash系数最大为0.97,最小为0.67,均在合理范围内,在缺资料地区运用较好。针对雅鲁藏布江2个断面强变异指标改变度计算结果均表明雅江中下游地区的水文改变度为高度改变。在指标选取方面,生态水文改变过程的指标体系(Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration,IHA)参数之间的相关性较高,指标间的冗余问题十分突出。ERHIs指标具有一定的合理性,不仅有效缓解了IHA的冗余性问题,还有利于抓住最关键的生态水文变量,对生态水文研究、流域水资源管理和生态保护都具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义,为短缺水文资料地区的生态评估提供参考。
文摘进入21世纪以来,受气候变化与人类活动因素叠加影响,鄱阳湖退水时间提前、枯水期延长、水位降低等问题频发,呈现出常态化、趋势化特征,给鄱阳湖湖区生产生活带来巨大挑战。运用趋势检验及突变检验的方法分析鄱阳湖湖区1989~2020年5个水文站(星子、棠荫、康山、都昌和湖口)年均水位的变化趋势;耦合可细化人类活动影响的PCR-GLOBWB(PCRaster Global Water Balance)模型与可预测时间序列的LSTM长短期记忆神经网络模型,结合IHA/RVA法,量化气候变化与人类活动对鄱阳湖的影响。结果表明:受人类活动影响,鄱阳湖水位呈现下降趋势,在2003年鄱阳湖水位发生显著变异,同时,鄱阳湖水位整体改变度由低度改变上升到中度改变。以星子站为例,人类活动是鄱阳湖水文情势变化的主要驱动因素,贡献率达110.62%,气候变化对其贡献率仅为-10.62%。研究成果可为鄱阳湖的水资源科学管理调控提供依据。
文摘洞庭湖是长江中下游的重要大型通江湖泊,其防洪、生态地位突出。本文采用滑动平均、M-K趋势检验等数理统计方法,分析三峡建库前后的洞庭湖水文情势变化,结果表明:从入出湖径流量变化分析,洞庭湖入湖组成中荆江三口径流量显著下降,三峡建库后减少44%,洞庭四水来水无明显变化,水量占比上四水比例增加、荆江三口比例下降,出湖径流量呈显著下降趋势,三峡建库后减少了12.8%,主要来自于荆江三口径流量的减少;从湖区代表站七里山站特征水位变化分析,年际、年代际均呈显著上升趋势,三峡建库后七里山站平均水位抬高0.18 m,逐月平均水位具有汛前水位抬高、汛后水位降低的特点,其中抬高、降低幅度最大的月份分别为3月、10月,三峡建库前后对年最高水位无明显影响,建库后年最低水位出现时间明显提前、水位值明显抬高。该成果可为流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用等方面提供基础规律支撑。Dongting Lake is an important large-scale lake that can regulate and store water of Changjiang River, with outstanding flood control and ecological function. This article uses mathematical statistical methods such as moving average and Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze the changes in hydrological regime of Dongting Lake before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results show that the runoff in the three outlets along Jingjiang River significantly decreased by 44% after the operation of the Three Gorges, but the runoff of the four branches of Dongting Lake unchanged. The proportion of the runoff of the four branches to the total runoff of Dongting Lake increased and the proportion of the three outlets along Jingjiang River obviously decreased. The outflow of the Dongting Lake showed a significant downward trend, which decreased by 12.8% after the operation of the reservoir, mainly due to the decrease in the three outlets along Jingjiang River. From the analysis of the characteristic water level changes at Qilishan Station, a representative station in Dongting Lake, there is a significant upward trend between annual and decadal water levels. After the operation of the reservoir, the average water level at Qilishan station has risen by 0.18 meters, and the monthly average water level has the characteristics of rising before the flood season and falling after the flood season. The months with the largest degree of rise and fall are March and October, respectively. The operation of the reservoir has no significant impact on the annual highest water level. After the operation, the occurrence time of the annual minimum water level is significantly earlier, and the water level value rises. This conclusion can provide basic technical support for the prevention of water and drought disasters and the utilization of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin.
