基于1980~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,采用线性倾向趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法分析了四川盆地日照时数时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势,结果表明:1) 观测期间年日照时数呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到了19.1 h/10a,...基于1980~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,采用线性倾向趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法分析了四川盆地日照时数时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势,结果表明:1) 观测期间年日照时数呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到了19.1 h/10a,且春夏冬三季呈增加趋势,秋季呈下降趋势,但这些变化均没有达到显著性水平。年日照时数具有26年(第一主周期)和8年(第二主周期)的周期变化特征。2) 年日照时数在中部及西南地区较低,由此向北和向西均逐渐增加;夏季日照时数自西南向东北日照时数值呈逐渐增加趋势,而冬季的空间分布模态与夏季基本相反。3) 年日照时数未来变化继续呈增加趋势,但这种持续性较弱。季节尺度上春夏冬三季的日照时数继续呈增加趋势,而秋季日照时数未来趋势存在很大的不确定性。Based on the sunshine hours measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, this paper studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and its future trend in the Sichuan Basin by using linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and re-scale range analysis. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, the annual sunshine hours showed an increasing trend, and the climate trend rate reached 19.1 h/10a. In addition, there was an increasing trend in spring, summer and winter, and a decreasing trend in autumn. But none of these changes reached a significant level. Annual sunshine hours had periodic changes of 26 years (the first main cycle) and 8 years (the second main cycle). 2) The annual sunshine hours were lower in the central and southwest regions of the Sichuan Basin, and thus gradually increased north and west;the sunshine hours in summer gradually increased from southwest to northeast, and the spatial distribution mode in winter was basically opposite to that in summer. 3) Future changes in annual sunshine hours continued to show an increasing trend, but this persistence was weak. On the seasonal scale, sunshine hours in spring, summer and winter continued to increase, while there is a great deal of uncertainty about future trends in fall sunshine hours.展开更多
基于四川省1961~2017年31个气象站点实测的日照时数和同步观测的气压、气温、相对湿度和风速等资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall (M-K)突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,本文研究了四川省日照时数的时空变化特征及其影响因子,结果表明:...基于四川省1961~2017年31个气象站点实测的日照时数和同步观测的气压、气温、相对湿度和风速等资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall (M-K)突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,本文研究了四川省日照时数的时空变化特征及其影响因子,结果表明:1) 四川省年平均日照时数为1795.5 h,呈显著下降趋势,约为每10年下降29.4 h。年代际尺度上,自20世纪90年代起,日照时数从相对较高的时期逐渐过渡到相对较低的时期。2) 日照时数在1985年发生了明显突变:从偏多期骤然转变为偏少期。就周期性特征而言,日照时数主要包含了3个不同周期,分别为5年(第三周期)、11年(首要周期)和23年(次要周期)。3) 四川省日照时数在空间上自东向西递增,呈现出“西多东少”的分布格局。4) 平均风速对日照时数影响最大,二者呈显著正相关;云量和相对湿度对日照时数的影响次之,呈显著负相关关系;降水量与日照时数呈负相关关系,但不是很显著;气压对日照时数影响较小。Based on the sunshine hours measured by 31 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the data of air pressure, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed observed simultaneously, this paper studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of sunshine hours in Sichuan Province by using climatic inclination rate, Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that: 1) The annual average sunshine hours in Sichuan Province were 1795.5 h, showing a significant downward trend, about 29.4 h per 10 years. From the perspective of interdecadal change, since the 90s of the 20th century, the sunshine hours have gradually transitioned from a relatively high period to a relatively low period. 2) In 1985, there was an obvious abrupt change in the number of sunshine hours: it changed from a period of more than one period to one period of less. In terms of cyclical characteristics, the number of sunshine hours mainly includes three different cycles, namely 5 years (the third cycle), 11 years (the primary cycle) and 23 years (the secondary cycle). 3) The sunshine hours in Sichuan Province increased spatially from east to west, showing a distribution pattern of “more in the west and less in the east”. 4) The average wind speed had the greatest impact on the number of sunshine hours, and there was a significant positive correlation between the two. The effects of cloud cover and relative humidity on sunshine hours were the second, showing a significant negative correlation. There was a negative correlation between precipitation and sunshine hours, but it was not very significant. Barometric pressure has little effect on the number of hours of sunshine.展开更多
文摘基于1980~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,采用线性倾向趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法分析了四川盆地日照时数时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势,结果表明:1) 观测期间年日照时数呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到了19.1 h/10a,且春夏冬三季呈增加趋势,秋季呈下降趋势,但这些变化均没有达到显著性水平。年日照时数具有26年(第一主周期)和8年(第二主周期)的周期变化特征。2) 年日照时数在中部及西南地区较低,由此向北和向西均逐渐增加;夏季日照时数自西南向东北日照时数值呈逐渐增加趋势,而冬季的空间分布模态与夏季基本相反。3) 年日照时数未来变化继续呈增加趋势,但这种持续性较弱。季节尺度上春夏冬三季的日照时数继续呈增加趋势,而秋季日照时数未来趋势存在很大的不确定性。Based on the sunshine hours measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, this paper studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and its future trend in the Sichuan Basin by using linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and re-scale range analysis. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, the annual sunshine hours showed an increasing trend, and the climate trend rate reached 19.1 h/10a. In addition, there was an increasing trend in spring, summer and winter, and a decreasing trend in autumn. But none of these changes reached a significant level. Annual sunshine hours had periodic changes of 26 years (the first main cycle) and 8 years (the second main cycle). 2) The annual sunshine hours were lower in the central and southwest regions of the Sichuan Basin, and thus gradually increased north and west;the sunshine hours in summer gradually increased from southwest to northeast, and the spatial distribution mode in winter was basically opposite to that in summer. 3) Future changes in annual sunshine hours continued to show an increasing trend, but this persistence was weak. On the seasonal scale, sunshine hours in spring, summer and winter continued to increase, while there is a great deal of uncertainty about future trends in fall sunshine hours.
文摘基于四川省1961~2017年31个气象站点实测的日照时数和同步观测的气压、气温、相对湿度和风速等资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall (M-K)突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,本文研究了四川省日照时数的时空变化特征及其影响因子,结果表明:1) 四川省年平均日照时数为1795.5 h,呈显著下降趋势,约为每10年下降29.4 h。年代际尺度上,自20世纪90年代起,日照时数从相对较高的时期逐渐过渡到相对较低的时期。2) 日照时数在1985年发生了明显突变:从偏多期骤然转变为偏少期。就周期性特征而言,日照时数主要包含了3个不同周期,分别为5年(第三周期)、11年(首要周期)和23年(次要周期)。3) 四川省日照时数在空间上自东向西递增,呈现出“西多东少”的分布格局。4) 平均风速对日照时数影响最大,二者呈显著正相关;云量和相对湿度对日照时数的影响次之,呈显著负相关关系;降水量与日照时数呈负相关关系,但不是很显著;气压对日照时数影响较小。Based on the sunshine hours measured by 31 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the data of air pressure, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed observed simultaneously, this paper studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of sunshine hours in Sichuan Province by using climatic inclination rate, Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that: 1) The annual average sunshine hours in Sichuan Province were 1795.5 h, showing a significant downward trend, about 29.4 h per 10 years. From the perspective of interdecadal change, since the 90s of the 20th century, the sunshine hours have gradually transitioned from a relatively high period to a relatively low period. 2) In 1985, there was an obvious abrupt change in the number of sunshine hours: it changed from a period of more than one period to one period of less. In terms of cyclical characteristics, the number of sunshine hours mainly includes three different cycles, namely 5 years (the third cycle), 11 years (the primary cycle) and 23 years (the secondary cycle). 3) The sunshine hours in Sichuan Province increased spatially from east to west, showing a distribution pattern of “more in the west and less in the east”. 4) The average wind speed had the greatest impact on the number of sunshine hours, and there was a significant positive correlation between the two. The effects of cloud cover and relative humidity on sunshine hours were the second, showing a significant negative correlation. There was a negative correlation between precipitation and sunshine hours, but it was not very significant. Barometric pressure has little effect on the number of hours of sunshine.
