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1961-2017年新疆极端暖事件变化特征及其未来情景预估 被引量:4
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作者 刘璐 刘普幸 +2 位作者 张旺雄 司文洋 乔雪梅 《干旱区研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2021年第6期1590-1600,共11页
研究极端暖事件,对于应对气候变化、制定防灾减灾政策具有重要的理论价值与实际意义。利用1961—2017年中国地面气温日值格点数据集和1961—2050年CMIP6气候模式数据,通过模拟精度验证,筛选出模拟效果较好模式进行多模式集合平均,采用... 研究极端暖事件,对于应对气候变化、制定防灾减灾政策具有重要的理论价值与实际意义。利用1961—2017年中国地面气温日值格点数据集和1961—2050年CMIP6气候模式数据,通过模拟精度验证,筛选出模拟效果较好模式进行多模式集合平均,采用气候倾向率和反距离加权法(IDW)对新疆过去及未来6—9月极端暖事件日数、频率和强度时空变化进行研究。结果表明:过去57 a,新疆极端暖事件日数、频率和强度呈增加趋势,倾向率分别为0.2 d·(10a)^(-1)、0.02次·(10a)^(-1)和0.04℃·(10a)^(-1);极端暖事件日数和频率的空间分布具有南疆高于北疆的特征,高发区为南疆西部,而强度则为北高南低的空间分布特征,高值区分布在北疆。未来33 a,在SSP245与SSP585情景下,新疆极端暖事件日数、频率和强度均呈显著增加趋势;相对于1961—2017年平均极端暖事件日数分别增加21 d和28 d,平均极端暖事件频率分别增加1.6次和1.8次,平均极端暖事件强度分别升高1.2℃和1.3℃,且SSP585情景下增速更显著;极端暖事件日数和频率高发区位于南疆中部,强度高发区仍在北疆;南疆极端暖事件日数、频率和强度增幅均大于北疆。伊朗副热带高压、西太平洋副热带高压位置的变化与土壤湿度变化会影响新疆极端暖事件的强弱。 展开更多
关键词 极端暖事件 多模式集合 时空变化 情景预估 新疆
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安徽省近40 a极端温度事件的气候特征分析 被引量:9
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作者 娄珊珊 陈光舟 +1 位作者 陆雅君 郝莹 《暴雨灾害》 2019年第1期72-78,共7页
利用1975—2014年安徽省77个观测站的日最高温度、最低温度和平均气温资料,对近40 a极端温度事件的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:安徽省冬季极端低温事件的发生频次分布,总体呈北多南少,地区差异较大,极端低温事件发生次数最多的是... 利用1975—2014年安徽省77个观测站的日最高温度、最低温度和平均气温资料,对近40 a极端温度事件的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:安徽省冬季极端低温事件的发生频次分布,总体呈北多南少,地区差异较大,极端低温事件发生次数最多的是宿州萧县。近40 a间冬季的极端低温事件发生减少趋势显著,与冬季平均温度的显著上升相对应。年极端最低温度年际变化趋势不明显,且极端低温的发生频次与强度并不对应。夏季极端高温事件发生频次较多区域为江南。1975—2014年,夏季极端高温事件发生呈整体增多趋势,但趋势不显著。年极端最高温度的时间序列,与极端高温事件发生频次的时间序列是相对应的,呈现明显的正相关。从MK突变上看,年极端低温和高温事件发生均存在突变。分析合成环流场发现,冬季极端冷事件发生时,亚洲中高纬度环流的经向度明显增强;夏季极端暖事件的发生与副高的明显西伸增强维持有关。 展开更多
关键词 极端事件 极端暖事件 实际累积频率分布 MK检验
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State of China’s climate in 2023
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作者 Linhai Sun Xiaying Zhu +8 位作者 Wei Li Wanxiu Ai Xianyan Chen Yundi Jiang Ling Wang Xukai Zou Shanshan Zhao Hongling Zeng Hailing Zhong 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2024年第5期54-60,共7页
China witnessed a warm and dry climate in 2023.The annual surface air temperature reached a new high of 10.71℃,with the hottest autumn and the second hottest summer since 1961.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation was t... China witnessed a warm and dry climate in 2023.The annual surface air temperature reached a new high of 10.71℃,with the hottest autumn and the second hottest summer since 1961.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation was the second lowest since 2012,at 615.0 mm.Precipitation was less than normal from winter to summer,but more in autumn.Consistent with the annual condition,precipitation in the flood season from May to September was also the second lowest since 2012,which was 4.3%less than normal,with the anomalies in the central and eastern parts of China being higher in central areas and lower in the north and south.On the contrary,the West China Autumn Rain brought much more rainfall than normal,with an earlier start and later end.Although there was less annual precipitation in 2023,China suffered seriously from heavy precipitation events and floods.In particular,from the end of July to the beginning of August,a rare,extremely strong rainstorm caused by Typhoon Dussuri hit Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,causing an abrupt alteration from drought to flood conditions in North China.By contrast,Southwest China experienced continuous drought from the previous autumn to current spring.In early summer,North China and the Huanghuai region experienced the strongest high-temperature process since 1961.Nevertheless,there were more cold-air processes than normal impacting China,with the most severe of the year occurring in mid-January.Unexpectedly,in spring,there were more sand and dust occurrences in northern China. 展开更多
关键词 Climate in China Hottest year Extreme events Dussuri
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Multimodel ensemble projection of photovoltaic power potential in China by the 2060s
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作者 Xu Zhao Xu Yue +6 位作者 Chenguang Tian Hao Zhou Bin Wang Yuwen Chen Yuan Zhao Weijie Fu Yihan Hu 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2023年第5期102-107,共6页
为了实现能源转型的目标,中国对太阳能的需求一直在极速增长.然而,太阳能发电潜力受到天气条件的影响并预期在气候变暖背景下发生改变.本文中,作者利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)24个气候模式的气象变量以及4个不同形式的光伏模... 为了实现能源转型的目标,中国对太阳能的需求一直在极速增长.然而,太阳能发电潜力受到天气条件的影响并预期在气候变暖背景下发生改变.本文中,作者利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)24个气候模式的气象变量以及4个不同形式的光伏模型,预估了在2060年代低排放或高排放情况下中国的光伏发电潜力.多模式集合平均光伏功率在2004-2014年为277.2KWhm-2yr-1,并呈现出从西到东的下降趋势.到2054-2064年,在低排放情景下,全国平均光伏发电潜力将增加2.29%,而在高排放情景下则减少0.43%.低排放情景的排放控制大大增强了地表太阳辐射,促进了东部的光伏发电.相反,在高排放情景下,强烈的变暖对光伏发电产生了抑制作用.极端暖事件使光伏发电潜力在低排放情景下降低0.28%,而高排放情景下降低0.44%,分别相当于当代损失量的两倍和三倍.预估表明排放控制带来的清洁空气和适度变暖对中国未来的太阳能利用是有益的. 展开更多
关键词 光伏发电 气候变化 极端暖事件 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 集合预估
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Changes of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Hengduan Mountains,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961-2008 被引量:16
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作者 NING Baoying YANG Xiaomei CHANG Li 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2012年第4期422-436,共15页
Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values, and so have received much attention. In this study, twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of p... Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values, and so have received much attention. In this study, twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipita- tion extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008. The re- suits reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequen- cies of extreme warm days and nights. Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant. Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming. At a large proportion of the stations, patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961: warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature. As the center of the Shaluli Mountain, the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer. Changes in precipitation extremes is low: trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation, and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level. It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains, however, the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north. Overall, the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions. 展开更多
关键词 precipitation temperature climate extremes global warming Hengduan Mountains Qinghai-Tibet Pla-teau
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