To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to impleme...To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.展开更多
For measurement of component content in the extraction and separation process of praseodymium/neodymium(Pr/Nd), a soft measurement method was proposed based on modeling of ion color features, which is suitable for fas...For measurement of component content in the extraction and separation process of praseodymium/neodymium(Pr/Nd), a soft measurement method was proposed based on modeling of ion color features, which is suitable for fast estimation of component content in production field. Feature analysis on images of the solution is conducted,which are captured from Pr/Nd extraction/separation field. H/S components in the HSI color space are selected as model inputs, so as to establish the least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) model for Nd(Pr) content,while the model parameters are determined with the GA algorithm. To improve the adaptability of the model,the adaptive iteration algorithm is used to correct parameters of the LSSVM model, on the basis of model correction strategy and new sample data. Using the field data collected from rare earth extraction production, predictive methods for component content and comparisons are given. The results indicate that the proposed method presents good adaptability and high prediction precision, so it is applicable to the fast detection of element content in the rare earth extraction.展开更多
The general regression neural network(GRNN) model was proposed to model and predict the length of day(LOD) change, which has very complicated time-varying characteristics. Meanwhile, considering that the axial atmosph...The general regression neural network(GRNN) model was proposed to model and predict the length of day(LOD) change, which has very complicated time-varying characteristics. Meanwhile, considering that the axial atmospheric angular momentum(AAM) function is tightly correlated with the LOD changes, it was introduced into the GRNN prediction model to further improve the accuracy of prediction. Experiments with the observational data of LOD changes show that the prediction accuracy of the GRNN model is 6.1% higher than that of BP network, and after introducing AAM function, the improvement of prediction accuracy further increases to 14.7%. The results show that the GRNN with AAM function is an effective prediction method for LOD changes.展开更多
Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series...Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.展开更多
The degree of accuracy in predicting the photovoltaic power generation plays an important role in appropriate allocations and economic operations of the power plants based on the generating capacity data gathered from...The degree of accuracy in predicting the photovoltaic power generation plays an important role in appropriate allocations and economic operations of the power plants based on the generating capacity data gathered from the geographically separated photovoltaic plants through network. In this paper, a forecasting model is designed with an optimization algorithm which is developed with the combination of PSO （Particle Swarm Optimization） and BP （Back Propagation） neural network. The proposed model is further validated and the experiment results show that the predication model assures the prediction accuracy regardless the day type transitions and other relevant factors, in the proposed model, the prediction error rate is worth less than 20% in all different climatic conditions and most of the prediction error accuracy is less than 10% in sunny day, and whose precision satisfies the management requirements of the power grid companies, reflecting the significance of the proposed model in engineering applications.展开更多
To effectively predict the permeability index of smelting process in the imperial smelting furnace, an intelligent prediction model is proposed. It integrates the case-based reasoning （CBR） with adaptive par- ticle ...To effectively predict the permeability index of smelting process in the imperial smelting furnace, an intelligent prediction model is proposed. It integrates the case-based reasoning （CBR） with adaptive par- ticle swarm optimization （PSO）. The nmnber of nearest neighbors and the weighted features vector are optimized online using the adaptive PSO to improve the prediction accuracy of CBR. The adaptive inertia weight and mutation operation are used to overcome the premature convergence of the PSO. The proposed method is validated a compared with the basic weighted CBR. The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy and better performance than the basic CBR model.展开更多
A selective moving window partial least squares(SMW-PLS) soft sensor was proposed in this paper and applied to a hydro-isomerization process for on-line estimation of para-xylene(PX) content. Aiming at the high freque...A selective moving window partial least squares(SMW-PLS) soft sensor was proposed in this paper and applied to a hydro-isomerization process for on-line estimation of para-xylene(PX) content. Aiming at the high frequency of model updating in previous recursive PLS methods, a selective updating strategy was developed. The model adaptation is activated once the prediction error is larger than a preset threshold, or the model is kept unchanged.As a result, the frequency of model updating is reduced greatly, while the change of prediction accuracy is minor.The performance of the proposed model is better as compared with that of other PLS-based model. The compromise between prediction accuracy and real-time performance can be obtained by regulating the threshold. The guidelines to determine the model parameters are illustrated. In summary, the proposed SMW-PLS method can deal with the slow time-varying processes effectively.展开更多
Based on the Residual Oil Hydrodesulfurization Treatment Unit (S-RHT), the n-order reaction kinetic model for residual oil HDS reactions and artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to determine the sulfur...Based on the Residual Oil Hydrodesulfurization Treatment Unit (S-RHT), the n-order reaction kinetic model for residual oil HDS reactions and artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to determine the sulfur content of hydrogenated residual oil. The established ANN model covered 4 input variables, 1 output variable and 1 hidden layer with 15 neurons. The comparison between the results of two models was listed. The results showed that the predicted mean relative errors of the two models with three different sample data were less than 5% and both the two models had good predictive precision and extrapolative feature for the HDS process. The mean relative error of 5 sets of testing data of the ANN model was 1.62%—3.23%, all of which were smaller than that of the common mechanism model (3.47%— 4.13%). It showed that the ANN model was better than the mechanism model both in terms of fitting results and fitting difficulty. The models could be easily applied in practice and could also provide a reference for the further research of residual oil HDS process.展开更多
Gaussian process(GP)has fewer parameters,simple model and output of probabilistic sense,when compared with the methods such as support vector machines.Selection of the hyper-parameters is critical to the performance o...Gaussian process(GP)has fewer parameters,simple model and output of probabilistic sense,when compared with the methods such as support vector machines.Selection of the hyper-parameters is critical to the performance of Gaussian process model.However,the common-used algorithm has the disadvantages of difficult determination of iteration steps,over-dependence of optimization effect on initial values,and easily falling into local optimum.To solve this problem,a method combining the Gaussian process with memetic algorithm was proposed.Based on this method,memetic algorithm was used to search the optimal hyper parameters of Gaussian process regression(GPR)model in the training process and form MA-GPR algorithms,and then the model was used to predict and test the results.When used in the marine long-range precision strike system(LPSS)battle effectiveness evaluation,the proposed MA-GPR model significantly improved the prediction accuracy,compared with the conjugate gradient method and the genetic algorithm optimization process.展开更多
There are two fundamental goals in statistical learning： identifying relevant predictors and ensuring high prediction accuracy. The first goal, by means of variable selection, is of particular importance when the tru...There are two fundamental goals in statistical learning： identifying relevant predictors and ensuring high prediction accuracy. The first goal, by means of variable selection, is of particular importance when the true underlying model has a sparse representation. Discovering relevant predictors can enhance the performance of the prediction for the fitted model. Usually an estimate is considered desirable if it is consistent in terms of both coefficient estimate and variable selection. Hence, before we try to estimate the regression coefficients β , it is preferable that we have a set of useful predictors m hand. The emphasis of our task in this paper is to propose a method, in the aim of identifying relevant predictors to ensure screening consistency in variable selection. The primary interest is on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit（OMP）.展开更多
基金Projects(61174115,51104044)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2010153)supported by Scientific Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51174091,61364013,61164013)Earlier Research Project of the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China(2014CB360502)
文摘For measurement of component content in the extraction and separation process of praseodymium/neodymium(Pr/Nd), a soft measurement method was proposed based on modeling of ion color features, which is suitable for fast estimation of component content in production field. Feature analysis on images of the solution is conducted,which are captured from Pr/Nd extraction/separation field. H/S components in the HSI color space are selected as model inputs, so as to establish the least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) model for Nd(Pr) content,while the model parameters are determined with the GA algorithm. To improve the adaptability of the model,the adaptive iteration algorithm is used to correct parameters of the LSSVM model, on the basis of model correction strategy and new sample data. Using the field data collected from rare earth extraction production, predictive methods for component content and comparisons are given. The results indicate that the proposed method presents good adaptability and high prediction precision, so it is applicable to the fast detection of element content in the rare earth extraction.
基金Projects(U1231105,10878026)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The general regression neural network(GRNN) model was proposed to model and predict the length of day(LOD) change, which has very complicated time-varying characteristics. Meanwhile, considering that the axial atmospheric angular momentum(AAM) function is tightly correlated with the LOD changes, it was introduced into the GRNN prediction model to further improve the accuracy of prediction. Experiments with the observational data of LOD changes show that the prediction accuracy of the GRNN model is 6.1% higher than that of BP network, and after introducing AAM function, the improvement of prediction accuracy further increases to 14.7%. The results show that the GRNN with AAM function is an effective prediction method for LOD changes.
文摘Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.61261016，Wuhan Science and technology project for the Solar energy intelligent management system development and application demonstration
文摘The degree of accuracy in predicting the photovoltaic power generation plays an important role in appropriate allocations and economic operations of the power plants based on the generating capacity data gathered from the geographically separated photovoltaic plants through network. In this paper, a forecasting model is designed with an optimization algorithm which is developed with the combination of PSO （Particle Swarm Optimization） and BP （Back Propagation） neural network. The proposed model is further validated and the experiment results show that the predication model assures the prediction accuracy regardless the day type transitions and other relevant factors, in the proposed model, the prediction error rate is worth less than 20% in all different climatic conditions and most of the prediction error accuracy is less than 10% in sunny day, and whose precision satisfies the management requirements of the power grid companies, reflecting the significance of the proposed model in engineering applications.
基金supported by the by the National Natural Science Foundation(No.60874069,60634020)the National High Technology Research and Development Programme of China(No.2009AA04Z124)Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.09JJ3122)
文摘To effectively predict the permeability index of smelting process in the imperial smelting furnace, an intelligent prediction model is proposed. It integrates the case-based reasoning （CBR） with adaptive par- ticle swarm optimization （PSO）. The nmnber of nearest neighbors and the weighted features vector are optimized online using the adaptive PSO to improve the prediction accuracy of CBR. The adaptive inertia weight and mutation operation are used to overcome the premature convergence of the PSO. The proposed method is validated a compared with the basic weighted CBR. The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy and better performance than the basic CBR model.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61203133,61203072)the Open Project Program of the State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology(ICT1214)
文摘A selective moving window partial least squares(SMW-PLS) soft sensor was proposed in this paper and applied to a hydro-isomerization process for on-line estimation of para-xylene(PX) content. Aiming at the high frequency of model updating in previous recursive PLS methods, a selective updating strategy was developed. The model adaptation is activated once the prediction error is larger than a preset threshold, or the model is kept unchanged.As a result, the frequency of model updating is reduced greatly, while the change of prediction accuracy is minor.The performance of the proposed model is better as compared with that of other PLS-based model. The compromise between prediction accuracy and real-time performance can be obtained by regulating the threshold. The guidelines to determine the model parameters are illustrated. In summary, the proposed SMW-PLS method can deal with the slow time-varying processes effectively.
文摘Based on the Residual Oil Hydrodesulfurization Treatment Unit (S-RHT), the n-order reaction kinetic model for residual oil HDS reactions and artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to determine the sulfur content of hydrogenated residual oil. The established ANN model covered 4 input variables, 1 output variable and 1 hidden layer with 15 neurons. The comparison between the results of two models was listed. The results showed that the predicted mean relative errors of the two models with three different sample data were less than 5% and both the two models had good predictive precision and extrapolative feature for the HDS process. The mean relative error of 5 sets of testing data of the ANN model was 1.62%—3.23%, all of which were smaller than that of the common mechanism model (3.47%— 4.13%). It showed that the ANN model was better than the mechanism model both in terms of fitting results and fitting difficulty. The models could be easily applied in practice and could also provide a reference for the further research of residual oil HDS process.
基金Project(513300303)supported by the General Armament Department,China
文摘Gaussian process(GP)has fewer parameters,simple model and output of probabilistic sense,when compared with the methods such as support vector machines.Selection of the hyper-parameters is critical to the performance of Gaussian process model.However,the common-used algorithm has the disadvantages of difficult determination of iteration steps,over-dependence of optimization effect on initial values,and easily falling into local optimum.To solve this problem,a method combining the Gaussian process with memetic algorithm was proposed.Based on this method,memetic algorithm was used to search the optimal hyper parameters of Gaussian process regression(GPR)model in the training process and form MA-GPR algorithms,and then the model was used to predict and test the results.When used in the marine long-range precision strike system(LPSS)battle effectiveness evaluation,the proposed MA-GPR model significantly improved the prediction accuracy,compared with the conjugate gradient method and the genetic algorithm optimization process.
文摘There are two fundamental goals in statistical learning： identifying relevant predictors and ensuring high prediction accuracy. The first goal, by means of variable selection, is of particular importance when the true underlying model has a sparse representation. Discovering relevant predictors can enhance the performance of the prediction for the fitted model. Usually an estimate is considered desirable if it is consistent in terms of both coefficient estimate and variable selection. Hence, before we try to estimate the regression coefficients β , it is preferable that we have a set of useful predictors m hand. The emphasis of our task in this paper is to propose a method, in the aim of identifying relevant predictors to ensure screening consistency in variable selection. The primary interest is on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit（OMP）.
