The eco-environmental vulnerability and underdevelopment of the agriculture in Southwest China would strengthen its disadvantage conditions further on the condition of arid climate change.It is necessary to deal with ...The eco-environmental vulnerability and underdevelopment of the agriculture in Southwest China would strengthen its disadvantage conditions further on the condition of arid climate change.It is necessary to deal with the relations between resource utilization and eco-environment finely and ascertain the adaptive principles on the dry valley agriculture to the arid climate change in order to change the extensive utilization of the special agricultural resources.The paper gave some adaptive countermeasures that develop modern rangeland husbandry,strengthening the special agriculture and agricultural industrialization,emphasis on the ecological agriculture development,constructing the extension system of water-saving modern agriculture,encouraging the service industry related to ＂agriculture,peasants and the countryside＂,constructing water utilization facilities,and exploiting the renewable energies.展开更多
The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted gre...The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted great attention.Focusing on a record-breaking flash drought event in the southeastern coastal region of China in summer 2020,the authors found that the suppression of convective precipitation and high temperature caused by the persistent high geopotential height anomalies and land-atmosphere dry coupling were important reasons for the rapid onset and strong intensity of the flash drought.Event attribution analysis with the latest CMIP6 data showed that anthropogenic climate change has not only increased the likelihood of an onset speed and intensity like those of the 2020 flash drought event,by about 93%±20%and 18%±15%,respectively,but also increased the chance of their simultaneous occurrence,by about 86%±38%,according to their joint probability distribution.Under a business-as-usual future scenario(SSP2-4.5),the likelihood of such an onset speed,intensity,and their simultaneous occurrence will further increase,by 85%±33%,49%±8%,and 81%±48%,respectively,as compared with current climate conditions.This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic climate change for accelerating and intensifying flash drought in the southeastern coastal region of China.展开更多
The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed u...The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.展开更多
Wetlands are sensitive to climate change, in the same time, wetlands can influence climate. This study analyzed the spa- rio-temporal characteristics of wetland change in the semi-arid zone of Northeast China from 198...Wetlands are sensitive to climate change, in the same time, wetlands can influence climate. This study analyzed the spa- rio-temporal characteristics of wetland change in the semi-arid zone of Northeast China from 1985 to 2010, and investigated the impact of large area of wetland change on local climate. Results showed that the total area of wetlands was on a rise in the study area. Although natural wetlands （marshes, riparians and lakes） decreased, constructed wetlands （rice fields） increased significantly, and the highest in- crease rate in many places exceeded 30%. Anthropogenic activities are major driving factors for wetland change. Wetland change pro- duced an impact on local climate, mainly on maximum temperature and precipitation during the period of May-September. The increase （or decrease） of wetland area could reduce （or increase） the increment of maximum temperature and the decrement of precipitation. The changes in both maximum temperature and precipitation corresponded with wetland change in spatial distribution. Wetland change played a more important role in moderating local climate compared to the contribution of woodland and grassland changes in the study area. Cold-humid effect of wetlands was main way to moderating local climate as well as alleviating climatic wanning and drying in the study area, and heterogeneity of underlying surface broadened the cold-humid effect of wetlands.展开更多
Quantifying the changes and propagation of drought is of great importance for regional eco-environmental safety and water-related disaster management under global warming.In this study,phase 6 of the Coupled Model Int...Quantifying the changes and propagation of drought is of great importance for regional eco-environmental safety and water-related disaster management under global warming.In this study,phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project was employed to examine future meteorological(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI,and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI),hydrological(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI),and agricultural(Standardized Soil moisture Index,SSI) drought under two warming scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results show that,across the globe,different types of drought events generally exhibit a larger spatial extent,longer duration,and greater severity from 1901 to 2100,with SPEI drought experiencing the greatest increases.Although SRI and SSI drought are expected to be more intensifying than SPI drought,the models show higher consistency in projections of SPI changes.Regions with robust drying trends include the southwestern United States,Amazon Basin,Mediterranean,southern Africa,southern Asia,and Australia.It is also found that meteorological drought shows a higher correlation with hydrological drought than with agricultural drought,especially in warm and humid regions.Additionally,the maximum correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought tends to be achieved at a short time scale.These findings have important implications for drought monitoring and policy interventions for water resource management under a changing climate.展开更多
In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of...In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation （2.2%/℃）. Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent re- sponse, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days （12.4%/℃） and tropical nights （26.0%/℃）, but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days （-4.7%/℃） and ice days （-7.0%/℃）. Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high （2.4%/℃） for heavy precipitation days （〉 10 mm d l） and increases dramatically （5.3%/℃） for very heavy precipitation days （〉 20 mm d-1）, as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days （10.8%/℃） and extremely wet days （22.0%/℃）. Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.展开更多
基金funded by Arid Meteorology Research Fund(IAM201007)Research Fund of Chengdu University of Information Technology(KYTZ201030)National Natural Science Foundation Project(40971304)~~
文摘The eco-environmental vulnerability and underdevelopment of the agriculture in Southwest China would strengthen its disadvantage conditions further on the condition of arid climate change.It is necessary to deal with the relations between resource utilization and eco-environment finely and ascertain the adaptive principles on the dry valley agriculture to the arid climate change in order to change the extensive utilization of the special agricultural resources.The paper gave some adaptive countermeasures that develop modern rangeland husbandry,strengthening the special agriculture and agricultural industrialization,emphasis on the ecological agriculture development,constructing the extension system of water-saving modern agriculture,encouraging the service industry related to ＂agriculture,peasants and the countryside＂,constructing water utilization facilities,and exploiting the renewable energies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41875105]the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2018YFA0606002]the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for Distinguished Young Scholars[grant number BK20211540]。
文摘The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted great attention.Focusing on a record-breaking flash drought event in the southeastern coastal region of China in summer 2020,the authors found that the suppression of convective precipitation and high temperature caused by the persistent high geopotential height anomalies and land-atmosphere dry coupling were important reasons for the rapid onset and strong intensity of the flash drought.Event attribution analysis with the latest CMIP6 data showed that anthropogenic climate change has not only increased the likelihood of an onset speed and intensity like those of the 2020 flash drought event,by about 93%±20%and 18%±15%,respectively,but also increased the chance of their simultaneous occurrence,by about 86%±38%,according to their joint probability distribution.Under a business-as-usual future scenario(SSP2-4.5),the likelihood of such an onset speed,intensity,and their simultaneous occurrence will further increase,by 85%±33%,49%±8%,and 81%±48%,respectively,as compared with current climate conditions.This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic climate change for accelerating and intensifying flash drought in the southeastern coastal region of China.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Grant No. GYHY201306026)the Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology (KLOE) Open Fund (Grant No. XJDX02012012-04)
文摘The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.
基金Under the auspices of National Environmental Protection Public Welfare Industry Research Fund(No.2011467032)
文摘Wetlands are sensitive to climate change, in the same time, wetlands can influence climate. This study analyzed the spa- rio-temporal characteristics of wetland change in the semi-arid zone of Northeast China from 1985 to 2010, and investigated the impact of large area of wetland change on local climate. Results showed that the total area of wetlands was on a rise in the study area. Although natural wetlands （marshes, riparians and lakes） decreased, constructed wetlands （rice fields） increased significantly, and the highest in- crease rate in many places exceeded 30%. Anthropogenic activities are major driving factors for wetland change. Wetland change pro- duced an impact on local climate, mainly on maximum temperature and precipitation during the period of May-September. The increase （or decrease） of wetland area could reduce （or increase） the increment of maximum temperature and the decrement of precipitation. The changes in both maximum temperature and precipitation corresponded with wetland change in spatial distribution. Wetland change played a more important role in moderating local climate compared to the contribution of woodland and grassland changes in the study area. Cold-humid effect of wetlands was main way to moderating local climate as well as alleviating climatic wanning and drying in the study area, and heterogeneity of underlying surface broadened the cold-humid effect of wetlands.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 4208810141901024+1 种基金42175168]the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) [grant number 311021009]。
文摘Quantifying the changes and propagation of drought is of great importance for regional eco-environmental safety and water-related disaster management under global warming.In this study,phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project was employed to examine future meteorological(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI,and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI),hydrological(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI),and agricultural(Standardized Soil moisture Index,SSI) drought under two warming scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results show that,across the globe,different types of drought events generally exhibit a larger spatial extent,longer duration,and greater severity from 1901 to 2100,with SPEI drought experiencing the greatest increases.Although SRI and SSI drought are expected to be more intensifying than SPI drought,the models show higher consistency in projections of SPI changes.Regions with robust drying trends include the southwestern United States,Amazon Basin,Mediterranean,southern Africa,southern Asia,and Australia.It is also found that meteorological drought shows a higher correlation with hydrological drought than with agricultural drought,especially in warm and humid regions.Additionally,the maximum correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought tends to be achieved at a short time scale.These findings have important implications for drought monitoring and policy interventions for water resource management under a changing climate.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305061)the "Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090306)
文摘In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation （2.2%/℃）. Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent re- sponse, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days （12.4%/℃） and tropical nights （26.0%/℃）, but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days （-4.7%/℃） and ice days （-7.0%/℃）. Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high （2.4%/℃） for heavy precipitation days （〉 10 mm d l） and increases dramatically （5.3%/℃） for very heavy precipitation days （〉 20 mm d-1）, as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days （10.8%/℃） and extremely wet days （22.0%/℃）. Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.
