In this paper we demonstrate that price-to-income ratio （PIR） is the most precise indicator of measuring bubble levels in China＇s urban hoasing market under current conditions. We have built a model to measure the ...In this paper we demonstrate that price-to-income ratio （PIR） is the most precise indicator of measuring bubble levels in China＇s urban hoasing market under current conditions. We have built a model to measure the reasonable PIR ceiling. Based on current mortgage rates, loan terms and down payment ratios, we conclude that the reasonable PIR for China ＇s urban residents should lie between 4.38-6.78 and should not exceed 7. 7hen, using statistical data, we calculate current PIR in China ＇s major cities. With reference to proper PIR, we conclude the existence of bubbles in China ＇s urban housing market; in particular, bubbles hace grown enormously large in some first-tier cities, which pose a huge financial risk. Based on the above analysis, we propose some policy suggestions to carefully deflate the bubbles in these housing markets.展开更多
文摘In this paper we demonstrate that price-to-income ratio （PIR） is the most precise indicator of measuring bubble levels in China＇s urban hoasing market under current conditions. We have built a model to measure the reasonable PIR ceiling. Based on current mortgage rates, loan terms and down payment ratios, we conclude that the reasonable PIR for China ＇s urban residents should lie between 4.38-6.78 and should not exceed 7. 7hen, using statistical data, we calculate current PIR in China ＇s major cities. With reference to proper PIR, we conclude the existence of bubbles in China ＇s urban housing market; in particular, bubbles hace grown enormously large in some first-tier cities, which pose a huge financial risk. Based on the above analysis, we propose some policy suggestions to carefully deflate the bubbles in these housing markets.
