The relationship between the Kuroshio transport to the east of Taiwan and the SSHA (Sea Surface Height Anomaly) field is studied based on the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) PCM-1 moored current meter array ...The relationship between the Kuroshio transport to the east of Taiwan and the SSHA (Sea Surface Height Anomaly) field is studied based on the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) PCM-1 moored current meter array observation, the satellite altimeter data from the MSLA (Map of Sea Level Anomaly) products merged with the ERS and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data sets, and the WOCE satellite-tracked drifting buoy data. It is confirmed that the Kuroshio transport across PCM-1 array highly correlates with the SSHA upstream (22°-24°N, 121.75°-124°E). The SSHA is not locally generated by the developed Kuroshio meandering but is from the interior ocean and is propagating westward or northwestward. During the period from October 1992 to January 1998, two events of the northwestward propagating negative SSHA occurred, during which the SSHA merged into the Kuroshio and caused the remarkable low transport events in contrast to the normal westward propagating negative SSHA. It is also shown that the lower Kuroshio transport event would be generated in different ways. The negative anomaly in the upstream of PCM-1 array can reduce the Kuroshio transport by either offshore or onshore Kuroshio meandering. The positive anomaly, which is strong enough to detour the Kuroshio, can cause an offshore meandering and a low transport event at the PCM-1 array.展开更多
In order to understand the role of East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) in forecasting summer precipitation in East China,interseasonal pentad characteristics of the EASWJ and their relation to summer precipita...In order to understand the role of East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) in forecasting summer precipitation in East China,interseasonal pentad characteristics of the EASWJ and their relation to summer precipitation in East China are analyzed with the daily reanalysis data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP,USA) and daily precipitation data from 714 Chinese meteorological stations during the period 1960-2009.In addition,the daily evolution of the EASWJ and objective quantification of the EASWJ are investigated for the Meiyu season over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.It is found that the EASWJ and summer precipitation bands in East China move simultaneously.Especially,the stationary state and northward shift of the EASWJ are closely associated with the beginning,ending and stabilization of the annually first raining season in South China and Meiyu over these reaches.Analysis on the characteristics of the EASWJ in typical (atypical) Meiyu years over these reaches shows that the EASWJ swings steadily around its climatological position in meridional orientation (with large amplitude).Numerical experiments on an example in 2005 shows that indexes proposed in this study can depict the EASWJ well and should be valuable for application in the operation.展开更多
Shipboard X-band radar images acquired on 24 June 2009 are used to study nonlinear internal wave characteristics in the northeastern South China Sea.The studied images show three nonlinear internal waves in a packet.A...Shipboard X-band radar images acquired on 24 June 2009 are used to study nonlinear internal wave characteristics in the northeastern South China Sea.The studied images show three nonlinear internal waves in a packet.A method based on the Radon Transform technique is introduced to calculate internal wave parameters such as the direction of propagation and internal wave velocity from backscatter images.Assuming that the ocean is a two-layer finite depth system,we can derive the mixed-layer depth by applying the internal wave velocity to the mixed-layer depth formula.Results show reasonably good agreement with in-situ thermistor chain and conductivity-temperature-depth data sets.展开更多
The radiance lights data in 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) and authoritative energy data distrib...The radiance lights data in 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) and authoritative energy data distributed by the United State Energy Information Administration were applied to estimate the global distribution of anthropogenic heat flux.A strong linear relationship was found to exist between the anthropogenic heat flux and the DMSP/OLS radiance data.On a global scale,the average value of anthropogenic heat flux is approximately 0.03 W m 2 and 0.10 W m 2 for global land area.The results indicate that global anthropogenic heat flux was geographically concentrated and distributed,fundamentally correlating to the economical activities.The anthropogenic heat flux concentrated in the economically developed areas including East Asia,Europe,and eastern North America.The anthropogenic heat flux in the concentrated regions,including the northeastern United States,Central Europe,United Kingdom,Japan,India,and East and South China is much larger than global average level,reaching a large enough value that could affect regional climate.In the center of the concentrated area,the anthropogenic heat flux density may exceed 100 W m 2,according to the results of the model.In developing areas,including South America,Central and North China,India,East Europe,and Middle East,the anthropogenic heat flux can reach a level of more than 10 W m 2 ;however,the anthropogenic heat flux in a vast area,including Africa,Central and North Asia,and South America,is low.With the development of global economy and urban agglomerations,the effect on climate of anthropogenic heat is essential for the research of climate change.展开更多
To improve the burial flux calculations of bioavailable phosphorus （P） and study opal-associated P （Opal-P） in the East China Sea （ECS）, surface and core sediments were collected in the Changjiang Estuary （CE）...To improve the burial flux calculations of bioavailable phosphorus （P） and study opal-associated P （Opal-P） in the East China Sea （ECS）, surface and core sediments were collected in the Changjiang Estuary （CE） and the south of the Cheju Island. In this study, sedimentary P was operationally divided into seven different forms using modified sedimentary extraction （SEDEX） technique： LSor-P （exchangeable or loosely sorbed P）, Fe-P （easily reducible or reactive ferric Fe-bound P）, CFA-P （authigenic carbonate fluorapatite and biogenic apatite and CaCO3-bound P）, Detr-P （detrital apatite）, Org-P （organic P）, Opal-P and Ref-P （refractory P）. The data revealed that the concentrations of the seven different P forms rank as Detr-P 〉 CFA-P 〉 Org-P 〉 Ref-P 〉 Opal-P 〉 Fe-P 〉 LSor-P in surface sediments and CFA-P 〉 Detr-P 〉 Org-P 〉 Ref-P 〉 Fe-P 〉 Opal-P 〉 LSor-P in core sediments. The distributions of the total phosphorus （TP）, TIP, CFA-P, Detr-P are similar and decrease from the CE to the south of the Cheju Island. Meanwhile, Org-P and Opal-P exhibit different distribution trends; this may be affected by the grain size and TOM. The concentrations of potentially bioavailable P are 9.6-13.0 μmol g^-1 and 10.0-13.6 μmol g^-1, representing 61%-70% and 41%？64% of the TP in surface and core sediments, respectively. The concentrations of Opal-P are 0.6-2.3 μmol g^-1 and 0.6-1.4 μmol g^-1 in surface and core sediments, ac-counting for 5.3%？19.8% and 4.2%？10.6% of bioavailable P, respectively. The total burial fluxes of Opal-P and bioavailable P are 1.4×10^9 mol y^-1 and 1.1×10^10 mol yr^-1 in the ECS, respectively. Opal-P represents about 12.7% of potentially bioavailable P, which should be recognized when studying P cycling in marine ecosystems.展开更多
The time has come for the constitution of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） economic community and many facts have been analyzed regarding this topic. This paper presents the results of the statisti...The time has come for the constitution of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） economic community and many facts have been analyzed regarding this topic. This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis applied to several economic parameters which firstly show how their integration pattern adjusts with a considerable good fitting to the optimum currency area model and to its extended version by Behrens; and secondly how the 10 members of this group are moving at relatively same speed in spite of their differences, that are also inferred for ranging.展开更多
A statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIPS） the Representative Concentrati...A statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIPS） the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean- Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS-s2） model. Our val- idation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regres- sion models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the en- hanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21 st century are different across eastern Chi- na under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation, while for the area between 23°N and 32°N mean precipitation is projected to decrease slightly over this century under RCP8.5. The change difference between scenarios mainly exists in the middle and late century. The land-sea thermal contrast and the associated east Asian summer monsoon flow are stronger, such that precipitation increases more, at higher latitudes under RCP8.5 compared to under RCP4.5. For the region south of 32°N, rainfall is projected to increase slightly under RCP4.5 but decrease under RCP8.5 in the late century. At the high resolution of 5 km, our statistically downscaled results for projected precipitation can be used to force hydrological models to project hydrological processes, which will be of great benefit to regional water planning and management.展开更多
This study utilizes daily Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation（APHRODITE）gridded rainfall and the U.S.National Centers for Environmental PredictionDepartment of Ener...This study utilizes daily Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation（APHRODITE）gridded rainfall and the U.S.National Centers for Environmental PredictionDepartment of Energy reanalysis II products to examine the intraseasonal oscillations（ISOs）of rainfall over Eastern China during each summer of 1996,2002,and 2006.These three cases represent three typical spatial patterns of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China,with the strongest intraseasonal rainfall occurring over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin,southern Yangtze Basin,and Southeast China,respectively.The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China are dominated by both 30–60-and 10–20-day ISOs in each summer and are further modulated by the boreal summer ISOs（BSISOs）over the entire Asian summer monsoon region.The objective of this study is thus to apply the Bayesian wavelet-banding（WB）scheme to predicting intraseasonal rainfall over Eastern China.Several key factors associated with BSISOs are selected as predictors to experimentally develop a 15-day-lead statistical forecast.The forecast results show promise for the intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China.Correlations generally greater than or equal to 0.6 are noted between the observed and predicted ISOs of rainfall over the major intraseasonal activity centers during each of the three summers.Such a high forecasting skill on intraseasonal timescales over various areas in Eastern China demonstrates the general usefulness of the WB scheme.展开更多
The main principle and mathematical model of GOCE kinematic orbit adjustment for Earth gravity field model （EGM） validation and accelerometer calibration are presented. Based on 60 days GOCE kinematic orbits with 1-...The main principle and mathematical model of GOCE kinematic orbit adjustment for Earth gravity field model （EGM） validation and accelerometer calibration are presented. Based on 60 days GOCE kinematic orbits with 1-2 cm accuracy and accelerometer data from 2009-11-02 to 2009-12-31, the RMS-of-fit （ROF） of them using EGM2008, EIGEN-SC, ITG- GRACE2010S and GOCO01S up to 120, 150 and 180 degree and order （d/o） are evaluated and compared. The scale factors and biases of GOCE accelerometer data are calibrated and the energy balance method （EBM） is performed to test the accuracy of accelerometer calibration. The results show that GOCE orbits are also sensitive to EGM from 120 to 150 d/o. The ROFs of EGMs with 150 and 180 d/o are obviously better than those of EGMs with 120 d/o. The ROFs of GOCO01S and ITG-GRACE2010S are almost the same up to 120 and 150 d/o, which are about 3.3 cm and 1.8 cm, respectively. They are far better than those of EGM2008 and EIGEN-SC with the same d/o. The ROF of GOCO01S with 180 d/o is about 1.6 em, which is the best one among those EGMs. The accelerometer calibration accuracies （ACAs） of ITG-GRACE2010S and GOCO01S are obviously higher that those of EGM2008 and EIGEN-SC. The ACA of GOCO01S with 180 d/o is far higher than that of EGMs with 120 d/o, and a little higher than that of ITG-GRACE2010S with 150 d/o. I t is suggested that the newest released EGM such as GOCO01S or GOCO02S till at least 150 d/o should be chosen in GOCE precise orbit determination （POD） and accelerometer calibration.展开更多
The water quality of lakes can be degraded by excessive riverine nutrients.Riverine water quality generally varies depending on region and season because of the spatiotemporal variations in natural factors and anthrop...The water quality of lakes can be degraded by excessive riverine nutrients.Riverine water quality generally varies depending on region and season because of the spatiotemporal variations in natural factors and anthropogenic activities.Monthly water quality measurements of eight water quality variables were analyzed for two years at 16 sites of the Tianmuhu watershed.The variables were examined using hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA) and factor analysis/principal component analysis(FA/PCA) to reveal the spatiotemporal variations in riverine nutrients and to identify their potential sources.HCA revealed three geographical groups and three periods.Two drainages comprising towns and large villages were the most polluted, six drainages comprising widely distributed tea plantations and orchards were moderately polluted, and eight drainages without the factors were the least polluted.The river was most polluted in June when the first heavy rain(daily rainfall > 50 mm) occurs after fertilization and the number of rainy days is most(monthly number of rainy days > 20 days).Moderate pollution was observed from October to May, during which morethan 60% of the total nitrogen fertilizer and all of the phosphorus fertilizer are applied to the cropland, the total manure is applied to tea plantations and orchards, and a monthly rainfall ranging from 0 mm to 164 mm occurs.The remaining months were characterized by frequent raining(i.e., number of rainy days per month ranged from 5 to 24) and little use of fertilizers, and were thus least polluted.FA/PCA identified that the greatest pollution sources were the runoff from tea plantations and orchards,domestic pollution and the surface runoff from towns and villages, and rural sewage, which had extremely high contributions of riverine nitrogen, phosphorus,and chemical oxygen demand, respectively.The tea plantations and orchards promoted by the agricultural comprehensive development(ACD) were not environmentally friendly.Riverine nitrogen is a major water pollution parameter in hilly watersheds affected by ACD, and this parameter would not be reduced unless its loss load through the runoff from tea plantations and orchards is effectively controlled.展开更多
By applying the historical-run outputs from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3 b dataset(ERSST), the characteristics of different types of ENSO in...By applying the historical-run outputs from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3 b dataset(ERSST), the characteristics of different types of ENSO in the selected CMIP5 models, including cold-season-matured Eastern Pacific(C-EP) ENSO, warmseason-matured EP(W-EP) ENSO, cold-season-matured Central Pacific(C-CP) ENSO, and warm-season-matured CP(W-CP) ENSO, were examined in comparison with those in the ERSST dataset. The results showed that, in general, consistent with observations, EP ENSO events in most of the model runs were relatively much stronger than CP ENSO events, and cold-season-matured ENSO events were relatively much more frequent than warm-season-matured ENSO events for both EP and CP ENSO events. The composite amplitudes of ENSO events in most of the models were generally weaker than in observations, particularly for EP El Ni?o and CP La Ni?a. Moreover, most of the models successfully reproduced the amplitude asymmetries between El Ni?o and La Ni?a for cold-season-matured EP and CP ENSO events, exhibiting an average stronger/weaker EP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime and a weaker/stronger CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime. Most of the models, however, failed to reproduce the observed regimes of stronger/weaker W-EP El Ni?o/ La Ni?a and weaker/stronger W-CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a.展开更多
With the series of annual and seasonal temperature during 1957 – 2001 in Dongguan, Guangdong, the statistical characteristic and power spectrum and secular trend and sudden change phenomena are computed in this paper...With the series of annual and seasonal temperature during 1957 – 2001 in Dongguan, Guangdong, the statistical characteristic and power spectrum and secular trend and sudden change phenomena are computed in this paper. From the results it is known that (1) the temperatures have obvious characteristics of monsoon climate but do not have normal distribution, showing biased distribution of high or low kurtosis; (2) over the recent half- century, the temperatures tend to rise, specially in the last 10 years, in which mean temperature have quickly ascended by about 1.5°C, and except for the spring, there were sudden change of seasonal temperature rising from the 1980’s to 1990’s, which really reflected the influence of developing and opening and urbanization on Dongguan temperature; (3) except for the spring, the temperature of other seasons show some oscillatory periods in Dongguan and some of them also include long-term variation trends.展开更多
This paper aims to examine and analyse the level of intra-industry trade on economy of ASEAN. These data obtained from the accurate and reliable source of ASEAN Trade Statistics databases. The importance of intra-indu...This paper aims to examine and analyse the level of intra-industry trade on economy of ASEAN. These data obtained from the accurate and reliable source of ASEAN Trade Statistics databases. The importance of intra-industry and measurement is also described. Moreover, the linkage of intra-industry trade and investment liberalization under the ASEAN Economic Community （AEC） is also explained. The effective enhancement schemed to increase the competitiveness of specific industries had been proposed to enhance ASEAN to be efficient production hub and network of region that lead to the ultimate goal of single market. The further studies can be applied to construct and estimate the econometric model and forecasting technique to confirm the empirical results.展开更多
文摘The relationship between the Kuroshio transport to the east of Taiwan and the SSHA (Sea Surface Height Anomaly) field is studied based on the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) PCM-1 moored current meter array observation, the satellite altimeter data from the MSLA (Map of Sea Level Anomaly) products merged with the ERS and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data sets, and the WOCE satellite-tracked drifting buoy data. It is confirmed that the Kuroshio transport across PCM-1 array highly correlates with the SSHA upstream (22°-24°N, 121.75°-124°E). The SSHA is not locally generated by the developed Kuroshio meandering but is from the interior ocean and is propagating westward or northwestward. During the period from October 1992 to January 1998, two events of the northwestward propagating negative SSHA occurred, during which the SSHA merged into the Kuroshio and caused the remarkable low transport events in contrast to the normal westward propagating negative SSHA. It is also shown that the lower Kuroshio transport event would be generated in different ways. The negative anomaly in the upstream of PCM-1 array can reduce the Kuroshio transport by either offshore or onshore Kuroshio meandering. The positive anomaly, which is strong enough to detour the Kuroshio, can cause an offshore meandering and a low transport event at the PCM-1 array.
基金Key Project of New technology by China Meteorological Administration (CMATG20092D02)China Public Science and Technology Special Research Projects of Meteorology (GYHY201006007,GYHY201006008,GYHY201006016)National Science and Technology Project (2009BAC51B03)
文摘In order to understand the role of East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) in forecasting summer precipitation in East China,interseasonal pentad characteristics of the EASWJ and their relation to summer precipitation in East China are analyzed with the daily reanalysis data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP,USA) and daily precipitation data from 714 Chinese meteorological stations during the period 1960-2009.In addition,the daily evolution of the EASWJ and objective quantification of the EASWJ are investigated for the Meiyu season over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.It is found that the EASWJ and summer precipitation bands in East China move simultaneously.Especially,the stationary state and northward shift of the EASWJ are closely associated with the beginning,ending and stabilization of the annually first raining season in South China and Meiyu over these reaches.Analysis on the characteristics of the EASWJ in typical (atypical) Meiyu years over these reaches shows that the EASWJ swings steadily around its climatological position in meridional orientation (with large amplitude).Numerical experiments on an example in 2005 shows that indexes proposed in this study can depict the EASWJ well and should be valuable for application in the operation.
基金Supported by the Key Program and the Normal Program of the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.KZCX1-YW-12-04 and KZCX2-YW-201)the Instrument Developing Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YZ200724)
文摘Shipboard X-band radar images acquired on 24 June 2009 are used to study nonlinear internal wave characteristics in the northeastern South China Sea.The studied images show three nonlinear internal waves in a packet.A method based on the Radon Transform technique is introduced to calculate internal wave parameters such as the direction of propagation and internal wave velocity from backscatter images.Assuming that the ocean is a two-layer finite depth system,we can derive the mixed-layer depth by applying the internal wave velocity to the mixed-layer depth formula.Results show reasonably good agreement with in-situ thermistor chain and conductivity-temperature-depth data sets.
基金supported by theNational Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40775008and41075015)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2010DFA22770)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Prior Research Program(Grant No.XDA05100504)
文摘The radiance lights data in 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) and authoritative energy data distributed by the United State Energy Information Administration were applied to estimate the global distribution of anthropogenic heat flux.A strong linear relationship was found to exist between the anthropogenic heat flux and the DMSP/OLS radiance data.On a global scale,the average value of anthropogenic heat flux is approximately 0.03 W m 2 and 0.10 W m 2 for global land area.The results indicate that global anthropogenic heat flux was geographically concentrated and distributed,fundamentally correlating to the economical activities.The anthropogenic heat flux concentrated in the economically developed areas including East Asia,Europe,and eastern North America.The anthropogenic heat flux in the concentrated regions,including the northeastern United States,Central Europe,United Kingdom,Japan,India,and East and South China is much larger than global average level,reaching a large enough value that could affect regional climate.In the center of the concentrated area,the anthropogenic heat flux density may exceed 100 W m 2,according to the results of the model.In developing areas,including South America,Central and North China,India,East Europe,and Middle East,the anthropogenic heat flux can reach a level of more than 10 W m 2 ;however,the anthropogenic heat flux in a vast area,including Africa,Central and North Asia,and South America,is low.With the development of global economy and urban agglomerations,the effect on climate of anthropogenic heat is essential for the research of climate change.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41530965, 41276071, 41003052)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 201564008)
文摘To improve the burial flux calculations of bioavailable phosphorus （P） and study opal-associated P （Opal-P） in the East China Sea （ECS）, surface and core sediments were collected in the Changjiang Estuary （CE） and the south of the Cheju Island. In this study, sedimentary P was operationally divided into seven different forms using modified sedimentary extraction （SEDEX） technique： LSor-P （exchangeable or loosely sorbed P）, Fe-P （easily reducible or reactive ferric Fe-bound P）, CFA-P （authigenic carbonate fluorapatite and biogenic apatite and CaCO3-bound P）, Detr-P （detrital apatite）, Org-P （organic P）, Opal-P and Ref-P （refractory P）. The data revealed that the concentrations of the seven different P forms rank as Detr-P 〉 CFA-P 〉 Org-P 〉 Ref-P 〉 Opal-P 〉 Fe-P 〉 LSor-P in surface sediments and CFA-P 〉 Detr-P 〉 Org-P 〉 Ref-P 〉 Fe-P 〉 Opal-P 〉 LSor-P in core sediments. The distributions of the total phosphorus （TP）, TIP, CFA-P, Detr-P are similar and decrease from the CE to the south of the Cheju Island. Meanwhile, Org-P and Opal-P exhibit different distribution trends; this may be affected by the grain size and TOM. The concentrations of potentially bioavailable P are 9.6-13.0 μmol g^-1 and 10.0-13.6 μmol g^-1, representing 61%-70% and 41%？64% of the TP in surface and core sediments, respectively. The concentrations of Opal-P are 0.6-2.3 μmol g^-1 and 0.6-1.4 μmol g^-1 in surface and core sediments, ac-counting for 5.3%？19.8% and 4.2%？10.6% of bioavailable P, respectively. The total burial fluxes of Opal-P and bioavailable P are 1.4×10^9 mol y^-1 and 1.1×10^10 mol yr^-1 in the ECS, respectively. Opal-P represents about 12.7% of potentially bioavailable P, which should be recognized when studying P cycling in marine ecosystems.
文摘The time has come for the constitution of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） economic community and many facts have been analyzed regarding this topic. This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis applied to several economic parameters which firstly show how their integration pattern adjusts with a considerable good fitting to the optimum currency area model and to its extended version by Behrens; and secondly how the 10 members of this group are moving at relatively same speed in spite of their differences, that are also inferred for ranging.
基金financed by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB428502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40925015)
文摘A statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIPS） the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean- Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS-s2） model. Our val- idation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regres- sion models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the en- hanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21 st century are different across eastern Chi- na under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation, while for the area between 23°N and 32°N mean precipitation is projected to decrease slightly over this century under RCP8.5. The change difference between scenarios mainly exists in the middle and late century. The land-sea thermal contrast and the associated east Asian summer monsoon flow are stronger, such that precipitation increases more, at higher latitudes under RCP8.5 compared to under RCP4.5. For the region south of 32°N, rainfall is projected to increase slightly under RCP4.5 but decrease under RCP8.5 in the late century. At the high resolution of 5 km, our statistically downscaled results for projected precipitation can be used to force hydrological models to project hydrological processes, which will be of great benefit to regional water planning and management.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[grant numbers 2014CB953902,2012CB417203,and 2012CB955202]the Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010402]+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 4117505941375087and 91537103]
文摘This study utilizes daily Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation（APHRODITE）gridded rainfall and the U.S.National Centers for Environmental PredictionDepartment of Energy reanalysis II products to examine the intraseasonal oscillations（ISOs）of rainfall over Eastern China during each summer of 1996,2002,and 2006.These three cases represent three typical spatial patterns of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China,with the strongest intraseasonal rainfall occurring over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin,southern Yangtze Basin,and Southeast China,respectively.The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China are dominated by both 30–60-and 10–20-day ISOs in each summer and are further modulated by the boreal summer ISOs（BSISOs）over the entire Asian summer monsoon region.The objective of this study is thus to apply the Bayesian wavelet-banding（WB）scheme to predicting intraseasonal rainfall over Eastern China.Several key factors associated with BSISOs are selected as predictors to experimentally develop a 15-day-lead statistical forecast.The forecast results show promise for the intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China.Correlations generally greater than or equal to 0.6 are noted between the observed and predicted ISOs of rainfall over the major intraseasonal activity centers during each of the three summers.Such a high forecasting skill on intraseasonal timescales over various areas in Eastern China demonstrates the general usefulness of the WB scheme.
基金Project(41174008)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(SKLGED2013-4-2-EZ)supported by the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics,ChinaProject(2007B51)supported by the Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of China
文摘The main principle and mathematical model of GOCE kinematic orbit adjustment for Earth gravity field model （EGM） validation and accelerometer calibration are presented. Based on 60 days GOCE kinematic orbits with 1-2 cm accuracy and accelerometer data from 2009-11-02 to 2009-12-31, the RMS-of-fit （ROF） of them using EGM2008, EIGEN-SC, ITG- GRACE2010S and GOCO01S up to 120, 150 and 180 degree and order （d/o） are evaluated and compared. The scale factors and biases of GOCE accelerometer data are calibrated and the energy balance method （EBM） is performed to test the accuracy of accelerometer calibration. The results show that GOCE orbits are also sensitive to EGM from 120 to 150 d/o. The ROFs of EGMs with 150 and 180 d/o are obviously better than those of EGMs with 120 d/o. The ROFs of GOCO01S and ITG-GRACE2010S are almost the same up to 120 and 150 d/o, which are about 3.3 cm and 1.8 cm, respectively. They are far better than those of EGM2008 and EIGEN-SC with the same d/o. The ROF of GOCO01S with 180 d/o is about 1.6 em, which is the best one among those EGMs. The accelerometer calibration accuracies （ACAs） of ITG-GRACE2010S and GOCO01S are obviously higher that those of EGM2008 and EIGEN-SC. The ACA of GOCO01S with 180 d/o is far higher than that of EGMs with 120 d/o, and a little higher than that of ITG-GRACE2010S with 150 d/o. I t is suggested that the newest released EGM such as GOCO01S or GOCO02S till at least 150 d/o should be chosen in GOCE precise orbit determination （POD） and accelerometer calibration.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41030745,41271500)Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZZDEW-10-4)+1 种基金Key"135"Project of Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(NIGLAS2012135005)the Scientific Research Foundation of Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y4SL011036)
文摘The water quality of lakes can be degraded by excessive riverine nutrients.Riverine water quality generally varies depending on region and season because of the spatiotemporal variations in natural factors and anthropogenic activities.Monthly water quality measurements of eight water quality variables were analyzed for two years at 16 sites of the Tianmuhu watershed.The variables were examined using hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA) and factor analysis/principal component analysis(FA/PCA) to reveal the spatiotemporal variations in riverine nutrients and to identify their potential sources.HCA revealed three geographical groups and three periods.Two drainages comprising towns and large villages were the most polluted, six drainages comprising widely distributed tea plantations and orchards were moderately polluted, and eight drainages without the factors were the least polluted.The river was most polluted in June when the first heavy rain(daily rainfall > 50 mm) occurs after fertilization and the number of rainy days is most(monthly number of rainy days > 20 days).Moderate pollution was observed from October to May, during which morethan 60% of the total nitrogen fertilizer and all of the phosphorus fertilizer are applied to the cropland, the total manure is applied to tea plantations and orchards, and a monthly rainfall ranging from 0 mm to 164 mm occurs.The remaining months were characterized by frequent raining(i.e., number of rainy days per month ranged from 5 to 24) and little use of fertilizers, and were thus least polluted.FA/PCA identified that the greatest pollution sources were the runoff from tea plantations and orchards,domestic pollution and the surface runoff from towns and villages, and rural sewage, which had extremely high contributions of riverine nitrogen, phosphorus,and chemical oxygen demand, respectively.The tea plantations and orchards promoted by the agricultural comprehensive development(ACD) were not environmentally friendly.Riverine nitrogen is a major water pollution parameter in hilly watersheds affected by ACD, and this parameter would not be reduced unless its loss load through the runoff from tea plantations and orchards is effectively controlled.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB950400 and 2010CB428603)
文摘By applying the historical-run outputs from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3 b dataset(ERSST), the characteristics of different types of ENSO in the selected CMIP5 models, including cold-season-matured Eastern Pacific(C-EP) ENSO, warmseason-matured EP(W-EP) ENSO, cold-season-matured Central Pacific(C-CP) ENSO, and warm-season-matured CP(W-CP) ENSO, were examined in comparison with those in the ERSST dataset. The results showed that, in general, consistent with observations, EP ENSO events in most of the model runs were relatively much stronger than CP ENSO events, and cold-season-matured ENSO events were relatively much more frequent than warm-season-matured ENSO events for both EP and CP ENSO events. The composite amplitudes of ENSO events in most of the models were generally weaker than in observations, particularly for EP El Ni?o and CP La Ni?a. Moreover, most of the models successfully reproduced the amplitude asymmetries between El Ni?o and La Ni?a for cold-season-matured EP and CP ENSO events, exhibiting an average stronger/weaker EP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime and a weaker/stronger CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime. Most of the models, however, failed to reproduce the observed regimes of stronger/weaker W-EP El Ni?o/ La Ni?a and weaker/stronger W-CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a.
文摘With the series of annual and seasonal temperature during 1957 – 2001 in Dongguan, Guangdong, the statistical characteristic and power spectrum and secular trend and sudden change phenomena are computed in this paper. From the results it is known that (1) the temperatures have obvious characteristics of monsoon climate but do not have normal distribution, showing biased distribution of high or low kurtosis; (2) over the recent half- century, the temperatures tend to rise, specially in the last 10 years, in which mean temperature have quickly ascended by about 1.5°C, and except for the spring, there were sudden change of seasonal temperature rising from the 1980’s to 1990’s, which really reflected the influence of developing and opening and urbanization on Dongguan temperature; (3) except for the spring, the temperature of other seasons show some oscillatory periods in Dongguan and some of them also include long-term variation trends.
文摘This paper aims to examine and analyse the level of intra-industry trade on economy of ASEAN. These data obtained from the accurate and reliable source of ASEAN Trade Statistics databases. The importance of intra-industry and measurement is also described. Moreover, the linkage of intra-industry trade and investment liberalization under the ASEAN Economic Community （AEC） is also explained. The effective enhancement schemed to increase the competitiveness of specific industries had been proposed to enhance ASEAN to be efficient production hub and network of region that lead to the ultimate goal of single market. The further studies can be applied to construct and estimate the econometric model and forecasting technique to confirm the empirical results.
