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基于贝叶斯推断的卫星螺栓连接结构动力学参数识别
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作者 路森浩 顾乃建 武文华 《大连理工大学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第3期221-230,共10页
在卫星等航天器结构运行过程中,螺栓连接结构会导致卫星刚度损失和能量耗散.对于某卫星螺栓连接结构开展了含能量耗散与滞回效应的动力学参数识别分析方法研究.首先针对螺栓连接结构的力学特征给出了含动力学耗散的Bouc-Wen(B-W)模型,... 在卫星等航天器结构运行过程中,螺栓连接结构会导致卫星刚度损失和能量耗散.对于某卫星螺栓连接结构开展了含能量耗散与滞回效应的动力学参数识别分析方法研究.首先针对螺栓连接结构的力学特征给出了含动力学耗散的Bouc-Wen(B-W)模型,并推导其在不同荷载下的方程新式.进而分别构建了力锤激励冲击加载和激振器周期加载试验系统,基于贝叶斯推断模型开展了螺栓连接结构动力学参数反演识别研究,给出表征Bouc-Wen模型的螺栓连接结构动力学参数及其在周期荷载下的滞回曲线.最后,基于Bouc-Wen模型计算了不同荷载下卫星螺栓连接结构的加速度.通过计算方程新式计算数据与实测数据之间的均方误差对比两种方法的拟合程度,结果表明两者的均方误差较小,所提方法在解决卫星螺栓连接结构动力学参数识别方面具有可行性和准确性. 展开更多
关键词 螺栓连接结构 BOUC-WEN模型 贝叶斯推断模型 非线性滞回
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Automated soil resources mapping based on decision tree and Bayesian predictive modeling 被引量:1
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作者 周斌 张新刚 王人潮 《Journal of Zhejiang University Science》 EI CSCD 2004年第7期782-795,共14页
This article presents two approaches for automated building of knowledge bases of soil resources mapping. These methods used decision tree and Bayesian predictive modeling, respectively to generate knowledge from tra... This article presents two approaches for automated building of knowledge bases of soil resources mapping. These methods used decision tree and Bayesian predictive modeling, respectively to generate knowledge from training data. With these methods, building a knowledge base for automated soil mapping is easier than using the conventional knowledge acquisition approach. The knowledge bases built by these two methods were used by the knowledge classifier for soil type classification of the Longyou area, Zhejiang Province, China using TM bi-temporal imageries and GIS data. To evaluate the performance of the resultant knowledge bases, the classification results were compared to existing soil map based on field survey. The accuracy assessment and analysis of the resultant soil maps suggested that the knowledge bases built by these two methods were of good quality for mapping distribution model of soil classes over the study area. 展开更多
关键词 Soil mapping Decision tree Bayesian predictive modeling Knowledge-based classification Rule extracting
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Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the “Diamond Princess” 被引量:11
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作者 Feng Liu Xin Li Gaofeng Zhu 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第15期1297-1305,M0004,共10页
Traditional compartmental models such as SIR(susceptible,infected,recovered)assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population,but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous.Employing a more ... Traditional compartmental models such as SIR(susceptible,infected,recovered)assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population,but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous.Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary.Here,we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected,protected contact,and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19(coronavirus disease 2019)on the‘‘Diamond Princess"cruise ship.We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique.During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts,the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R0 was 6.94,triple that in the WHO report,indicating that all people would be infected in one month.The t and R0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented.The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation,and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed.This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. 展开更多
关键词 Contact network model SMALL-WORLD Chain-binomial model Airborne spread TRANSMISSIBILITY The basic reproductive number R0
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