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2022年湖北省两次雨雪过程对比及预报偏差分析 被引量:2
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作者 王珊珊 钟敏 +4 位作者 陈璇 柳草 王艳杰 章翠红 韩芳蓉 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第7期819-829,共11页
利用高空、地面观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料,对2022年湖北省两次雨雪过程的环流形势和环境条件进行了对比分析,并探讨了两次过程对降水相态、降雪量及积雪深度预报的偏差及原因。结果表明2022年1月27—29日过... 利用高空、地面观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料,对2022年湖北省两次雨雪过程的环流形势和环境条件进行了对比分析,并探讨了两次过程对降水相态、降雪量及积雪深度预报的偏差及原因。结果表明2022年1月27—29日过程低槽偏西,急流相对弱且维持时间短,中低层气温高且以暖平流为主,云中冰相粒子含量低,降水相态以雨为主,降雪量主要偏差是由于降水相态预报偏差和ECMWF模式对低空急流预报偏强导致降雪量预报偏大以及对积雪融化机制预报不足使得积雪深度预报偏大。2022年2月6—7日过程低槽偏东,急流相对强且维持时间长,中低层气温更低,云中冰相粒子含量高,低层相对湿度低,主要以降雪为主,ECMWF模式对该过程雨雪量和降水相态的预报均和实况接近,但边界层气温预报偏高和积雪融化能力预报不足是造成积雪深度变化误差的主要原因。对模式降雪量和积雪深度的订正需关注云中冰相粒子的含量、近地层气温的订正以及积雪融化能力的分析。 展开更多
关键词 降水相态 边界层降温 预报误差
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Intercomparison of different physics schemes in the WRF model over the Asian summer monsoon region 被引量:3
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作者 QUE Lin-Jing QUE Wei-Lun FENG Jin-Ming 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2016年第3期169-177,共9页
Enhancing the ability of the WRF model in simulating a large area covering the West Pacific Ocean, China's Mainland, and the East Indian Ocean is very important to improve prediction of the East Asian monsoon clim... Enhancing the ability of the WRF model in simulating a large area covering the West Pacific Ocean, China's Mainland, and the East Indian Ocean is very important to improve prediction of the East Asian monsoon climate. The objective of this study is to identify a reasonable configuration of physical parameterization schemes to simulate the precipitation and temperature in this large area. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Yonsei University (YSU) PBL schemes, the WSM3 and WSM5 microphysics schemes, and the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Tiedtke cumulus schemes are compared through simulation of the regional climate of summer 2008. All cases exhibit a similar spatial distribution of temperature as observed, and the spatial correlation coefficients are all higher than 0.95. The cases combining MY J, WSM3/WSM5, and BMJ have the smallest biases of temperature. The choice of PBL scheme has a significant effect on precipitation in such a large area. The cases with MYJ reproduce a better distribution of rain belts, while YSU strongly overestimates the precipitation intensity. The precipitation simulated using WSM3 is similar to that using WSM5. The BMJ cumulus scheme combined with the MYJ PBL scheme has a smaller bias of precipitation. However, the Tiedtke scheme reproduces the precipitation pattern better, especially over the ITCZ. 展开更多
关键词 WRF model PRECIPITATION temperature PBL scheme microphysics scheme cumulus parameterizationscheme
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