随着民航事业不断发展,航空用户对精细化气象预报的要求日趋提高,为了落实民航局下发的航空气象“实用性”的要求,提供更优质的民航气象服务,根据用户对TCA划分的区域标准,通过运用统计学方法,将2023年三亚终端区域内的对流性天气,分别...随着民航事业不断发展,航空用户对精细化气象预报的要求日趋提高,为了落实民航局下发的航空气象“实用性”的要求,提供更优质的民航气象服务,根据用户对TCA划分的区域标准,通过运用统计学方法,将2023年三亚终端区域内的对流性天气,分别从不同的季节,运用不同的天气概念模型将造成对流的主要影响系统进行分类,再通过历史资料归纳出的不同区域普遍出现的对流覆盖率标准以及结合对流日变化的特点,综合做出所划分区域内的对流影响预判。结果表明,这套方法适用于大多数情形下的分区预报工作,但是对于台风、东风波等大型热带系统影响时该方法并不适用,容易出现对流覆盖率预估偏低的情况,同时在面临突发性天气时也存在一定的操作难度,此外由于统计学方法本身固有的缺陷,不可避免会造成预报结论会有较大的不稳定性,后续还需结合动力诊断等知识以及对工作程序的优化将所采用的方法进行完善。With the continuous development of the civil aviation industry, aviation users have increasing requirements for refined weather forecasts. In order to implement the “practical” requirements of aviation meteorology issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, provide better civil aviation meteorological services, according to the user’s regional criteria for the TCA division and by applying statistical methods, the convective weather in the terminal area of Sanya in 2023, respectively, from the different seasons, using different weather concept models to classify the main effects of convection systems. Then, through the convection coverage standard in different regions and the characteristics of convection daily variation, make the prediction of the convection influence within the divided region comprehensively. The results show that this method is suitable for most cases partition forecast, but for typhoon, east storm and other large tropical system when the method is not applicable, prone to convection coverage forecast is low, at the same time in the face of sudden weather also has certain operation difficulty, in addition due to the statistical method itself inherent defects, will inevitably cause forecast conclusion will have larger instability, subsequent also need to combine dynamic diagnosis and other knowledge and the optimization of the method of perfect.展开更多
On the basis of the earthquake （gL I〉3.0） catalog in North China from 1970 to 2009, the pattern of temporal and spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas is studied by cor...On the basis of the earthquake （gL I〉3.0） catalog in North China from 1970 to 2009, the pattern of temporal and spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas is studied by correlation analysis with a focus on its anomaly before moderate and strong earthquakes. With different spatial scales, temporal scales and time steps, the spatial distribution of earthquakes is converted to a sequence, then the correlation coefficients between the spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in a long-term and a longer time are calculated for the analysis of anomalies before moderate and strong earthquakes. In the study region center on the epicenter of the 1989 Datong- Yanggao earthquake （Ms5. 9） within a radius of less than 0.8~, with the time length of 3600 days, the longer time length of 3700 days, and the time step of 100 days, the correlation coefficient from 1980 to 2009 is steady between 0.94 and 1.00, but there were anomalies with values less than 0. 94 in the 2 years before the 1989 Datong-Yanggao earthquake （Ms 5.9）, the 1991 Datong earthquake （ Ms 5.8） and 1999 Hunyuan earthquake （Ms 5. 6 ）, which indicates the spatial distribution of a medium-small earthquake is very different from steady background seismicity. The implication for earthquake prediction from the anomaly of the correlation coefficient is also discussed with the three conclusions： （1） Before moderate and strong earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas, the obvious change of spatial distribution patterns of medium-small earthquake can be a kind of seismic precursor of the 2-year time scale for the prediction of an earthquake＇s time. （2） As the study region is restricted within a radius of less than 0. 8~, the result of correlation analysis is also good for the prediction of an earthquake＇s location. （3） The method of correlation analysis in this paper helps recognize the anomaly of spatial distribution of medium-small earthquake.展开更多
文摘随着民航事业不断发展,航空用户对精细化气象预报的要求日趋提高,为了落实民航局下发的航空气象“实用性”的要求,提供更优质的民航气象服务,根据用户对TCA划分的区域标准,通过运用统计学方法,将2023年三亚终端区域内的对流性天气,分别从不同的季节,运用不同的天气概念模型将造成对流的主要影响系统进行分类,再通过历史资料归纳出的不同区域普遍出现的对流覆盖率标准以及结合对流日变化的特点,综合做出所划分区域内的对流影响预判。结果表明,这套方法适用于大多数情形下的分区预报工作,但是对于台风、东风波等大型热带系统影响时该方法并不适用,容易出现对流覆盖率预估偏低的情况,同时在面临突发性天气时也存在一定的操作难度,此外由于统计学方法本身固有的缺陷,不可避免会造成预报结论会有较大的不稳定性,后续还需结合动力诊断等知识以及对工作程序的优化将所采用的方法进行完善。With the continuous development of the civil aviation industry, aviation users have increasing requirements for refined weather forecasts. In order to implement the “practical” requirements of aviation meteorology issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, provide better civil aviation meteorological services, according to the user’s regional criteria for the TCA division and by applying statistical methods, the convective weather in the terminal area of Sanya in 2023, respectively, from the different seasons, using different weather concept models to classify the main effects of convection systems. Then, through the convection coverage standard in different regions and the characteristics of convection daily variation, make the prediction of the convection influence within the divided region comprehensively. The results show that this method is suitable for most cases partition forecast, but for typhoon, east storm and other large tropical system when the method is not applicable, prone to convection coverage forecast is low, at the same time in the face of sudden weather also has certain operation difficulty, in addition due to the statistical method itself inherent defects, will inevitably cause forecast conclusion will have larger instability, subsequent also need to combine dynamic diagnosis and other knowledge and the optimization of the method of perfect.
基金grant from Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration (No. ZDJ2011 - 01) and (No. ZDJ2010 - 26)
文摘On the basis of the earthquake （gL I〉3.0） catalog in North China from 1970 to 2009, the pattern of temporal and spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas is studied by correlation analysis with a focus on its anomaly before moderate and strong earthquakes. With different spatial scales, temporal scales and time steps, the spatial distribution of earthquakes is converted to a sequence, then the correlation coefficients between the spatial distribution of medium-small earthquakes in a long-term and a longer time are calculated for the analysis of anomalies before moderate and strong earthquakes. In the study region center on the epicenter of the 1989 Datong- Yanggao earthquake （Ms5. 9） within a radius of less than 0.8~, with the time length of 3600 days, the longer time length of 3700 days, and the time step of 100 days, the correlation coefficient from 1980 to 2009 is steady between 0.94 and 1.00, but there were anomalies with values less than 0. 94 in the 2 years before the 1989 Datong-Yanggao earthquake （Ms 5.9）, the 1991 Datong earthquake （ Ms 5.8） and 1999 Hunyuan earthquake （Ms 5. 6 ）, which indicates the spatial distribution of a medium-small earthquake is very different from steady background seismicity. The implication for earthquake prediction from the anomaly of the correlation coefficient is also discussed with the three conclusions： （1） Before moderate and strong earthquakes in Datong and its surrounding areas, the obvious change of spatial distribution patterns of medium-small earthquake can be a kind of seismic precursor of the 2-year time scale for the prediction of an earthquake＇s time. （2） As the study region is restricted within a radius of less than 0. 8~, the result of correlation analysis is also good for the prediction of an earthquake＇s location. （3） The method of correlation analysis in this paper helps recognize the anomaly of spatial distribution of medium-small earthquake.
