A kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional mean is proposed. Two kinds of parameter estimation methods with its weighting coefficients using the algorithm of quadratic programmi...A kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional mean is proposed. Two kinds of parameter estimation methods with its weighting coefficients using the algorithm of quadratic programming are given. The efficiencies of this combining forecasting model and the comparison of the two kinds of parameter estimation methods are demonstrated with an example. A conclusion is obtained, which is useful for the correct application of the above methods.展开更多
In order to obtain accurate prediction model and compensate for the influence of model mismatch on the control performance of the system and avoid solving nonlinear programming problem,an adaptive fuzzy predictive fun...In order to obtain accurate prediction model and compensate for the influence of model mismatch on the control performance of the system and avoid solving nonlinear programming problem,an adaptive fuzzy predictive functional control(AFPFC) scheme for multivariable nonlinear systems was proposed.Firstly,multivariable nonlinear systems were described based on Takagi-Sugeno(T-S) fuzzy models;assuming that the antecedent parameters of T-S models were kept,the consequent parameters were identified on-line by using the weighted recursive least square(WRLS) method.Secondly,the identified T-S models were linearized to be time-varying state space model at each sampling instant.Finally,by using linear predictive control technique the analysis solution of the optimal control law of AFPFC was established.The application results for pH neutralization process show that the absolute error between the identified T-S model output and the process output is smaller than 0.015;the tracking ability of the proposed AFPFC is superior to that of non-AFPFC(NAFPFC) for pH process without disturbances,the overshoot of the effluent pH value of AFPFC with disturbances is decreased by 50% compared with that of NAFPFC;when the process parameters of AFPFC vary with time the integrated absolute error(IAE) performance index still retains to be less than 200 compared with that of NAFPFC.展开更多
To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to impleme...To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.展开更多
The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it v...The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.展开更多
文摘A kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional mean is proposed. Two kinds of parameter estimation methods with its weighting coefficients using the algorithm of quadratic programming are given. The efficiencies of this combining forecasting model and the comparison of the two kinds of parameter estimation methods are demonstrated with an example. A conclusion is obtained, which is useful for the correct application of the above methods.
基金Project(2007AA04Z162) supported by the National High-Tech Research and Development Program of ChinaProjects(2006T089, 2009T062) supported by the University Innovation Team in the Educational Department of Liaoning Province, China
文摘In order to obtain accurate prediction model and compensate for the influence of model mismatch on the control performance of the system and avoid solving nonlinear programming problem,an adaptive fuzzy predictive functional control(AFPFC) scheme for multivariable nonlinear systems was proposed.Firstly,multivariable nonlinear systems were described based on Takagi-Sugeno(T-S) fuzzy models;assuming that the antecedent parameters of T-S models were kept,the consequent parameters were identified on-line by using the weighted recursive least square(WRLS) method.Secondly,the identified T-S models were linearized to be time-varying state space model at each sampling instant.Finally,by using linear predictive control technique the analysis solution of the optimal control law of AFPFC was established.The application results for pH neutralization process show that the absolute error between the identified T-S model output and the process output is smaller than 0.015;the tracking ability of the proposed AFPFC is superior to that of non-AFPFC(NAFPFC) for pH process without disturbances,the overshoot of the effluent pH value of AFPFC with disturbances is decreased by 50% compared with that of NAFPFC;when the process parameters of AFPFC vary with time the integrated absolute error(IAE) performance index still retains to be less than 200 compared with that of NAFPFC.
基金Projects(61174115,51104044)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2010153)supported by Scientific Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.
基金Project(51204201)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2011ZX05036-001,2011ZX05037-004)supported by the National Science and Technology Major Program of China+1 种基金Project(2010CB226706)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(11CX04050A)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.
