Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast s...Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP.Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.展开更多
研究了铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金在750、800、850、900、950℃,0.1、1.0、10.0 s-1应变率下的高温变形行为,获得其热压缩过程的流变应力-应变曲线,构建基于Arrhenius方程的本构模型和热加工图,阐明了变形温度和应变率对铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P...研究了铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金在750、800、850、900、950℃,0.1、1.0、10.0 s-1应变率下的高温变形行为,获得其热压缩过程的流变应力-应变曲线,构建基于Arrhenius方程的本构模型和热加工图,阐明了变形温度和应变率对铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金显微组织的影响规律。结果表明:铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金对温度、应变率较为敏感,其流变应力总体上随变形温度的升高而降低、随应变率的增大而增大,在真应变ε=0.2和ε=0.4对应的热变形激活能分别为359.102 k J/mol和498.313 k J/mol。同一温度下,当应变率为1、10 s-1时,长条变形晶粒更少或再结晶晶粒较小;随变形温度的升高,合金长条变形晶粒发生再结晶和晶粒长大,当热加工温度为900~950℃时,再结晶组织较为均匀。结合显微组织论证分析得到铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金的最佳热加工工艺参数为900~950℃、1 s-1和900℃、10 s-1,为铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金的热加工工艺提供理论指导。展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42192562 and 42030605)。
文摘Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP.Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.
文摘研究了铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金在750、800、850、900、950℃,0.1、1.0、10.0 s-1应变率下的高温变形行为,获得其热压缩过程的流变应力-应变曲线,构建基于Arrhenius方程的本构模型和热加工图,阐明了变形温度和应变率对铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金显微组织的影响规律。结果表明:铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金对温度、应变率较为敏感,其流变应力总体上随变形温度的升高而降低、随应变率的增大而增大,在真应变ε=0.2和ε=0.4对应的热变形激活能分别为359.102 k J/mol和498.313 k J/mol。同一温度下,当应变率为1、10 s-1时,长条变形晶粒更少或再结晶晶粒较小;随变形温度的升高,合金长条变形晶粒发生再结晶和晶粒长大,当热加工温度为900~950℃时,再结晶组织较为均匀。结合显微组织论证分析得到铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金的最佳热加工工艺参数为900~950℃、1 s-1和900℃、10 s-1,为铸态Cu-1.0Ni-0.2P合金的热加工工艺提供理论指导。
