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Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models
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作者 MENG Yali DUAN Keqin +5 位作者 SHANG Wei SHI Peihong LI Shuangshuang CHENG Ying CHEN Rong ZHANG Zhaopeng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第6期1095-1108,共14页
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by sp... The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions. 展开更多
关键词 CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) global warming 1.50warming time 2.00warming time regional differences
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Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming targets 被引量:15
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作者 FU Yuan-Hai LU Ri-Yu GUO Dong 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第2期112-119,共8页
This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercompariso... This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7-2.0 ℃ under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 ℃ target has a large spread of 40-60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4-2.7 ℃ under the 2.0 ℃ target. Furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China: being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9-2.1 ℃ for the 1.5℃ target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part (1.3-1.5 ℃). A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 ℃ target. 展开更多
关键词 TEMPERATURE warming 1.5 target 2.0 target China
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Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets 被引量:31
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作者 SHI Chen JIANG Zhi-Hong +1 位作者 CHEN Wei-Lin Laurent LI 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第2期120-129,共10页
The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts... The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China (relative to 1986-2005) at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels (relative to 1861-1900) by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models under three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day (TXx) and coldest night (TNn) are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days (TX90p) and warm spell duration (WSDI) will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day (TXn) and coldest night (TNn) will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5. 展开更多
关键词 1.5 global warming 2 global warming Temperature extremes CMIP5 China
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Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations 被引量:13
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作者 Guwei ZHANG Gang ZENG +1 位作者 Xiaoye YANG Zhihong JIANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第2期253-267,共15页
Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the... Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China. 展开更多
关键词 extreme high temperature China CMIP6 1.5-5global warming
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Changes of heating and cooling degree days over China in response toglobal warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ and 4℃ 被引量:8
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作者 SHI Ying ZHANG Dong-Feng +1 位作者 XU Ying ZHOU Bo-Tao 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第3期192-200,共9页
Future changes of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over Ea... Future changes of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 (RegCM4.4)driven by the global models of CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR. Under global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃,and 4℃, significant decrease of HDD can be found over China without considering population factor, with greater decrease over high elevationand high latitude regions, including the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China; while population-weightedHDD increased in areas where population will increase in the future, such as Beijing, Tianjin, parts of southern Hebei, northern Shandong andHenan provinces. Similarly, the CDD projections with and without considering population factor are largely different. Specifically, withoutconsidering population, increase of CDD were observed over most parts of China except the Tibetan Plateau where the CDD remained zerobecause of the cold climate even under global warming; while considering population factor, the future CDD decreases in South China andincreases in North China, the Sichuan Basin, and the southeastern coastal areas, which is directly related to the population changes. The differentfuture changes of HDD and CDD when considering and disregarding the effects of population show that population distribution plays animportant role in energy consumption, which should be considered in future research. 展开更多
关键词 REGIONAL CLIMATE model global warming of 1.5 2 3 and 4 Heating DEGREE DAYS Cooling DEGREE DAYS China
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Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 ℃ global warming target 被引量:7
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作者 WANG Tao MIAO Jia-Peng +1 位作者 SUN Jian-Qi FU Yuan-Hai 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第2期102-111,共10页
In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming (1.5 GW) target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5... In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming (1.5 GW) target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined. Compared with the current summer climate (1975-2005), both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period (average period 2021-2051). In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent (approximately 4.2%). Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period. 展开更多
关键词 East Asian summer monsoon PRECIPITATION 1.5 global warming target CMIP5
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Climate Change of 4℃ Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels 被引量:6
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作者 Xiaoxin WANG Dabang JIANG Xianmei LANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第7期757-770,共14页
Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4?C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse... Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4?C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4?C global warming will occur is 2084.Based on the median results of models that project a 4?C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5?C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation. 展开更多
关键词 4 global warming timing climate change signal-to-noise ratio uncertainty
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Projected changes in summer water vapor transport over East Asia under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets 被引量:2
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作者 XU Zhiqing FAN Ke 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2019年第2期124-130,共7页
This study investigates changes in summer water vapor transport(WVT) over East Asia under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming(GW) for the +4.5 and +8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios(RC... This study investigates changes in summer water vapor transport(WVT) over East Asia under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming(GW) for the +4.5 and +8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Of the 27 models used, 18 show better skill in simulating the climatological summer WVT over East Asia of the present day. Of those 18, 13 reach 1.5°C and 2.0°C GW for the two RCPs. Based on these 13 models, results show that — relative to the present day-th e summer WVT is enhanced over East Asia under 1.5°C and 2.0°C GW for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The inte r-model consistency is higher under 2.0°C GW. Increased water vapor content favors the enhanced WVT over both southern and northern East Asia, while lower-level circulation contributes to the enhanced WVT over southern East Asia. Compared to 1.5°C GW, th e summer WVT under 2.0°C GW is further enhanced over most of East Asia for RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, the summer WVT is also further enhanced over southern East Asia, while this is not the case over northern East Asia. Under the additional 0.5°C GW, the changes in summer WVT, with low in ter-model consistency, are closely related to anomalous lower-level circulation. Precipitation increases over the East China Sea to southern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and North China, for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, the changes in precipitation over the South China Sea and Northeast China are different for the two RCPs. This is connected to the difference in the changes of WVT divergence. 展开更多
关键词 Water vapor transport East Asia 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
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预估全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征
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作者 卞国栋 张建云 +1 位作者 王国庆 宋明明 《水科学进展》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第6期827-838,共12页
淮河流域暴雨洪水灾害严重,科学预估未来全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征对流域防洪减灾及应对气候变化具有重要意义。基于最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中22个全球气候模式数据,利用改进的可靠性集合方... 淮河流域暴雨洪水灾害严重,科学预估未来全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征对流域防洪减灾及应对气候变化具有重要意义。基于最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中22个全球气候模式数据,利用改进的可靠性集合方案与概率比法,采用6个极端降雨指标预估了全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下淮河流域未来极端降雨的时空变化与风险变化特征。结果表明:改进可靠性集合方案对淮河流域极端降雨的模拟性能要优于单一气候模式与算术平均集合方案;全球升温达到1.5℃与2.0℃阈值的平均时间段分别约为2017—2046年和2026—2055年;全球升温2.0℃下极端降雨指标增幅约为升温1.5℃下的1.4~2.6倍,其中流域北部地区为极端降雨增幅大值区;2种升温条件下极端降雨发生风险呈增加趋势,且额外增暖0.5℃将导致淮河流域极端降雨风险更高,如100 a重现期的极端降雨在升温1.5℃和2.0℃下将分别变为32年一遇和22年一遇,未来淮河流域极端降雨将会更加频繁。 展开更多
关键词 极端降雨 CMIP6 多模式集合 全球升温1.52.0 淮河流域
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Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming 被引量:1
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作者 Yi Fan Ke Fan Zhiqing Xu 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2021年第4期1-6,共6页
The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO ... The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO intensities are projected under the 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming levels under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Most of the models agree that the ISO intensities increase along a belt region from the south Indochina Peninsula(ICP) to the east to the Philippines.The variation pattern shows little difference between different warming levels or scenarios.Results indicate that the spatial distribution of ISO anomalies is related with the variation of background fields.Enriched lower-level humidity and moist static energy favor the intensity increases of ISOs,which are projected to be larger over the whole western North Pacific,with the most conspicuous changes located over the east to the Philippines for humidity but over the south of the ICP for moist static energy.In contrast,the ISOs over the west to Indonesia and northeast to the Philippines decrease,which is consistent with the local descending motions. 展开更多
关键词 Intraseasonal oscillation intensity Representative concentration pathway 1.5 and 2.0 global warming Western North Pacific
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Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5℃ warming 被引量:1
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作者 KONG Ying WANG Cheng-Hai 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期235-244,共10页
In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5℃ rise (relative to 1861e1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Mo... In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5℃ rise (relative to 1861e1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5℃, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5℃ warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5℃, the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1e3.5 northward (relative to 1986e2005), particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43x106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91x106 km2 (24.1%) and 4.15x106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986e2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40% relative to 1986e2005) in central North America, western Europe, and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in the QinghaieTibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15x106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18x 106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17x106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the QinghaieTibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively. 展开更多
关键词 PERMAFROST SNOW water equivalent NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 1.5 global warming
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未来升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量变化趋势评估 被引量:22
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作者 李阔 熊伟 +3 位作者 潘婕 林而达 李迎春 韩雪 《中国农业气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第12期765-777,共13页
基于ISI-MIP推荐的5个气候模式在4个RCP情景下的模拟结果,筛选21世纪末全球升温最接近1.5℃和2.0℃的气候数据,运用作物模型DSSAT,模拟升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量相对于基准时段1985-2006年的变化,揭示了1.5℃与2.0℃升温背景... 基于ISI-MIP推荐的5个气候模式在4个RCP情景下的模拟结果,筛选21世纪末全球升温最接近1.5℃和2.0℃的气候数据,运用作物模型DSSAT,模拟升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量相对于基准时段1985-2006年的变化,揭示了1.5℃与2.0℃升温背景下中国玉米产量变化的空间分布。结果表明:升温2.0℃背景下玉米减产风险明显高于升温1.5℃,未来升温2.0℃背景下中国玉米减产面积比升温1.5℃背景下多6.2%,升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米平均减产幅度分别为3.7%和11.5%;从空间分布来看,升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下未来中国玉米产量变化在区域分布上大致相似,但未来玉米增产和减产的面积和幅度不尽相同,在北方与西南玉米种植区都有一定的增产区域,其它区域大多以减产为主,其中西北部玉米种植区减幅最大;1.5℃升温背景下北方大部分地区气候条件对玉米生长有利,2.0℃升温背景下北方地区玉米减产也不明显,说明从近期到未来一段时间内,将全球升温控制在1.5℃以内,北方地区玉米仍具有一定增产潜力。 展开更多
关键词 RCP情景 升温1.5 升温2.0 玉米产量 作物模型 巴黎协定
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全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中国极端低温事件变化与耕地暴露度研究 被引量:30
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作者 王安乾 苏布达 +3 位作者 王艳君 黄金龙 温姗姗 姜彤 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2017年第3期415-428,共14页
基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟的1960—2100年逐日最低气温数据及2000年中国土地利用数据,采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,以全球升温1.5℃(RCP 2.6情景)和2.0℃(RCP 4.5情景)为目标,研究不同持续时... 基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟的1960—2100年逐日最低气温数据及2000年中国土地利用数据,采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,以全球升温1.5℃(RCP 2.6情景)和2.0℃(RCP 4.5情景)为目标,研究不同持续时间中国极端低温事件变化特征、最强极端低温事件强度与面积关系和最强中心空间分布,分析极端低温事件下耕地面积暴露度的变化规律。研究发现:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,持续1至9 d的极端低温事件频次相对于基准期(1986—2005年)下降30%—54%,强度变化-1%—8.8%,影响面积下降7%—21%;升温2.0℃,频次下降48%—80%,强度上升6%—11.5%,影响面积则在-14%—19%变化。(2)全球不同升温情景有可能发生强度和面积超过基准期最强事件的极端低温。全球升温1.5—2.0℃时,同等面积上的最强极端低温事件强度明显下降,但最强极端低温事件中心由西北和西南转移到华中和华南等地。(3)不同升温情景下,暴露于极端低温事件的中国耕地面积明显少于基准期,且升温幅度越高下降程度越大。最强极端低温事件的耕地暴露度则随温度的升高而增大。升温1.5℃时,华东、华北与华中等地暴露在最强极端低温事件的耕地面积相对于基准期有所增大,升温2.0℃时,华东与华北等地有大幅度上升。全球不同升温情景下,极端低温事件频次与影响面积持续下降,但强度上升;随着升温幅度的增大,这种差异变化特征越来越明显;特别应注意的是,随着温度上升,发生强度和面积超过当前记录到的最强极端低温事件的可能性增大;应加强极端事件的预警、预报和监测,减缓经济社会的损失。 展开更多
关键词 全球升温1.52.0 极端低温事件 耕地暴露度 强度-面积-持续时间 CCLM模式
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全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温对中国小麦产量的影响研究 被引量:11
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作者 孙茹 韩雪 +2 位作者 潘婕 熊伟 居辉 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第6期573-582,共10页
采用部门间影响模式比较计划(ISI-MIP)的气候模式,确定全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃出现的时间,并结合农业技术转移决策支持系统(DSSAT)模型模拟小麦的产量,最终选取4套数据对比研究中国小麦区温度和降水变化特征以及各区域小麦产量变化趋势,... 采用部门间影响模式比较计划(ISI-MIP)的气候模式,确定全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃出现的时间,并结合农业技术转移决策支持系统(DSSAT)模型模拟小麦的产量,最终选取4套数据对比研究中国小麦区温度和降水变化特征以及各区域小麦产量变化趋势,综合评价了不同升温情景对中国小麦产量的影响。结果表明:(1)在全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下,我国小麦生育期内温度相对于工业革命前分别升高1.17℃和1.81℃。两种升温情景下我国春麦区升温幅度大于冬麦区升温幅度。春麦区中新疆春麦区升温幅度最大,西北春麦区升温幅度最小;冬麦区中温度变化最大和最小的麦区分别为西南冬麦区和黄淮冬麦区。(2)在全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,我国小麦生育期内降水相对于历史时段(1986—2005年)分别增加9.1%和11.3%。从各麦区来看,两种升温情景下春麦区降水增加幅度略大于冬麦区的增加幅度。所有麦区中只有新疆春麦区降水低于历史时段降水。春麦区降水增加幅度最大的麦区为北部春麦区。冬麦区中降水增加较大的麦区为北部冬麦区和黄淮冬麦区,降水增加较小的麦区为华南冬麦区和西南冬麦区。(3)两种升温情景下,我国小麦单产相对于历史时段(1986—2005年)平均减产分别为5.2%和4.6%,两种升温情景对中国小麦产量并没有显著的差异。在全球升温大背景下我国春小麦主要呈现增产趋势,冬小麦主要呈现减产趋势。减产幅度较大的麦区为华南冬麦区和青藏春麦区,增产幅度最大的麦区为西北春麦区。从各麦区产量减产面积比例上看,我国各麦区减产面积所占比例趋势为从北向南由多变少再变多,其中华南冬麦区减产面积所占比例最大,北部冬麦区最小。 展开更多
关键词 全球1.52.0升温 中国小麦 产量 温度 降水
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全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征 被引量:19
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作者 王艳君 刘俸霞 +2 位作者 翟建青 王豫燕 姜彤 《气象科学》 北大核心 2019年第4期540-547,共8页
基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM及5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES,IPSL-CM5A-LR,MIROC-ESM-CHEM,NorESM1-M)1961-2100年逐日降水数据,采用重现期法计算20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的... 基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM及5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES,IPSL-CM5A-LR,MIROC-ESM-CHEM,NorESM1-M)1961-2100年逐日降水数据,采用重现期法计算20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征。研究发现:全球升温1.5℃目标下,长江流域20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别为78和93 mm,相比1986-2005年将增加10%和9%;空间上表现为中下游普遍增加,最大增幅145%,上游地区则主要表现为减少趋势;全球升温2.0℃目标下,20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别为81和98 mm,将较基准期上升14%和15%;中下游极端降水量显著上升,最大增幅约188%,上游成都平原以西以北明显下降;随全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别增加4%和6%,中下游较上游增幅更明显,最大增幅136%。因此,将温室气体减排目标控制在1.5℃水平对减缓长江流域尤其是中下游地区极端降水事件影响具有重要的意义。 展开更多
关键词 全球升温1.52.0 极端降水 变化特征 重现期 长江流域
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全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下贵州省极端降水的变化特征 被引量:2
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作者 张娇艳 李霄 +2 位作者 陈早阳 李扬 周涛 《中国农业气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第4期251-261,共11页
利用CCSM4和IPSL-CM5A-MR模式1961-2005年历史模拟和2006−2098年RCP2.6和RCP4.5排放情景下的逐日降水以及1961−2005年贵州省84个气象台站逐日降水资料,使用偏差校正改善模式模拟能力,通过降水强度、日最大降水量和强降水量等9个指标探... 利用CCSM4和IPSL-CM5A-MR模式1961-2005年历史模拟和2006−2098年RCP2.6和RCP4.5排放情景下的逐日降水以及1961−2005年贵州省84个气象台站逐日降水资料,使用偏差校正改善模式模拟能力,通过降水强度、日最大降水量和强降水量等9个指标探究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃条件下贵州省极端降水变化特征。结果表明:贵州省RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下各极端降水指数虽然波动幅度较大,但总体上均呈现增加的趋势,且相对于基准期(1986−2005年)而言全球升温2.0℃时各极端降水指数增幅约为升温1.5℃时的两倍。在升温2.0℃下9个极端降水指数概率密度曲线尾端均向右延伸,表明在升温2.0℃情景下各极端降水指数中高值出现的概率增大。因此,将全球升温控制在1.5℃而不是2.0℃意义重大。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 贵州省 升温1.5 升温2.0 极端降水
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长江流域径流对全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃的响应 被引量:9
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作者 徐文馨 陈杰 +2 位作者 顾磊 朱碧莹 专美佳 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2020年第6期690-705,共16页
全球变暖影响着以流域径流要素为主导的水文水资源系统的变化。长江流域未来水资源量的时空分布对长江大保护与长江经济带的发展意义重大。为探究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃对长江流域径流变化的影响,使用基于偏差校正的气候模式集合数据驱... 全球变暖影响着以流域径流要素为主导的水文水资源系统的变化。长江流域未来水资源量的时空分布对长江大保护与长江经济带的发展意义重大。为探究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃对长江流域径流变化的影响,使用基于偏差校正的气候模式集合数据驱动两参数月水量平衡模型,比较两种升温情景下径流量的响应差异。结果表明:基于偏差校正的气候模式集合数据可以较好地代表长江流域历史时期(1976—2005年)的年平均降水和年平均蒸散发情势。两参数月水量平衡模型与参数区域化方法相结合能较好地模拟长江流域各子流域的月径流量。升温1.5℃时,无论是年径流量还是季节径流量均呈上升趋势,与历史时期相比,50%以上三级子流域的增幅超过5%;升温2.0℃时,增幅超过8%。这表明升温2.0℃情景下长江流域水资源量将进一步增加。相对于历史时期,升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江流域北部降水量增幅较大;径流量增幅分布格局基本与降水量一致。汉江流域是全流域径流量增幅最显著的区域。 展开更多
关键词 升温1.5 升温2.0 长江流域 偏差校正法 全球气候模式 两参数月水量平衡模型
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全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下澜沧江流域极端降水的变化特征 被引量:10
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作者 丁凯熙 张利平 +2 位作者 佘敦先 张琴 向竣文 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2020年第4期466-479,共14页
澜沧江是我国为数不多的跨境河流,流域内多发暴雨、洪水灾害,因此定量、科学地评估澜沧江流域未来全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为澜沧江-湄公河沿线国家共同管理流域水资源和抵御自然灾害提供一定的科学指导。文中基于部门间... 澜沧江是我国为数不多的跨境河流,流域内多发暴雨、洪水灾害,因此定量、科学地评估澜沧江流域未来全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为澜沧江-湄公河沿线国家共同管理流域水资源和抵御自然灾害提供一定的科学指导。文中基于部门间影响模式比较计划(ISI-MIP)下5个全球气候模式降水数据,通过偏差校正增强其在澜沧江流域极端降水的模拟能力,使用降水强度、日最大降水量和强降水量等9个指标评价未来全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下澜沧江流域极端降水的变化情况,并对结果的不确定性和可信度进行研究,得出以下主要结论:随着全球温度的升高,澜沧江流域年降水和极端降水均呈现增大趋势,其中极强降水量(R99p)升幅最大,升温1.5℃和2.0℃下升幅分别为37%和75%;相对于基准期,全球升温2.0℃下各极端降水指数增幅明显大于升温1.5℃,前者升幅甚至超出后者一倍;未来全球升温情景下,澜沧江流域湿季会变得更湿润,而干季则会更干燥;澜沧江流域降水集中程度会增大,使得流域内洪涝灾害发生的风险增大;ISI-MIP气候模式对澜沧江流域未来极端降水模拟存在较大不确定性,升温2.0℃较升温1.5℃情景下不确定性更大,但相对于基准期,前者极端降水增大的可信度更高。 展开更多
关键词 全球升温1.5 全球升温2.0 极端降水 ISI-MIP 澜沧江流域 不确定性
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全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中国东南沿海致灾气旋的时空变化 被引量:6
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作者 陈雪 苏布达 +4 位作者 温姗姗 姜彤 高超 王艳君 翟建青 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第5期695-704,共10页
将造成经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。基于气象观测站的逐日气压、风速和降水量数据确定致灾气旋阈值,结合区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)在1961—2100年的输出资料,预估致灾气旋发生频数及其风速与降水量,分析全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃... 将造成经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。基于气象观测站的逐日气压、风速和降水量数据确定致灾气旋阈值,结合区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)在1961—2100年的输出资料,预估致灾气旋发生频数及其风速与降水量,分析全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,中国东南沿海地区致灾气旋时空变化特征。结果表明:(1) 1986—2015年,东南沿海地区致灾气旋发生频数共计180个,整体呈上升趋势,平均风速和降水量分别为8.7 m/s和129.8 mm,对浙江东部及广东东部沿海影响最严重。(2)全球升温1.5℃,2020—2039年致灾气旋频数将由基准期(1986—2005年)的111个上升至138个,增加区域主要位于广东省西南地区及福建省南部地区;平均风速和降水量分别上升15%和17%,至8.4 m/s和109.9 mm,以福建省沿海地区增加最明显。(3)全球升温2.0℃,2040—2059年致灾气旋频数较1986—2005年增加33%,将达148个;风速上升32%,以浙江省东部、福建和广东省接壤的沿海地区及广东省南部增幅最大;降水量上升35%,以福建与广东省接壤的沿海地区及广东省西南地区增加明显。(4)相比升温1.5℃,全球气温额外升高0.5℃,东南沿海地区致灾气旋频数及其风速与降水量将分别上升9%、17%和18%。努力将温升控制在1.5℃,对降低致灾气旋频率和强度增加所导致的影响具有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 全球升温1.52.0 致灾气旋 时空变化 CCLM模式 东南沿海地区
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全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水的变化特征 被引量:3
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作者 高淑媛 李瑷蔚 +5 位作者 黄金龙 王雪晴 林镔雷 杨陈心怡 王磊斌 姜彤 《气候与环境研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第1期123-133,共11页
中国乡村振兴核心区生态环境较脆弱,暴雨洪涝等气象灾害频发,在此背景下,定量、科学地评估乡村振兴核心区全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为乡村振兴核心区防止因灾返贫策略等的制定提供一定的科学依据。本研究基于CMIP6(Coupled... 中国乡村振兴核心区生态环境较脆弱,暴雨洪涝等气象灾害频发,在此背景下,定量、科学地评估乡村振兴核心区全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为乡村振兴核心区防止因灾返贫策略等的制定提供一定的科学依据。本研究基于CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)气候模式下不同SSPs-RCPs(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways)组合情景模拟数据,对全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水事件频次、强度和持续时间的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)相对于基准期(1995~2014年),全球升温1.5℃情景下,乡村振兴核心区受极端降水影响明显增大,面积占比60.91%的区域极端降水频次增加,面积占比88.19%的区域极端降水强度增强,面积占比81.07%的区域极端降水持续时间增加;(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,乡村振兴核心区三项极端降水指标变化与升温1.5℃情景下相似,相对于基准期有增加趋势,极端降水频次、强度和持续时间面积占比分别为55.78%、85.24%、79.33%;(3)从空间角度分析,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,乡村振兴核心区中西部相较东部可能更易受极端降水的影响,西藏片区频次和持续时间增加显著,尤其值得关注;(4)当全球升温从1.5℃到2.0℃情景,乡村振兴核心区整体极端降水特征的变化未表现出明显增减趋势及空间特征。相比1.5℃较基准期的变化,2.0℃情景下极端降水频次、强度、持续时间的增加区域范围均缩小,但平均增幅均变大,对于发生极端降水事件的乡村振兴核心区区域而言可能面临更大的风险。 展开更多
关键词 全球升温1.5 2.0 乡村振兴核心区 极端降水 CMIP6 气候模式
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