Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical ...Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.展开更多
BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managi...BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managing PHT,it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy,thus affecting patient survival prognosis.To our knowledge,existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes.Consequently,the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation.AIM To develop and validate a Bayesian network(BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS.METHODS The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods,and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.RESULTS Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival:age,ascites,hypertension,indications for TIPS,postoperative portal vein pressure(post-PVP),aspartate aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,total bilirubin,prealbumin,the Child-Pugh grade,and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score.Based on the above-mentioned variables,a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed,which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time:age,ascites,indications for TIPS,concurrent hypertension,post-PVP,the Child-Pugh grade,and the MELD score.The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04,and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16.The model’s accuracy,precision,recall,and F1 score were 0.90,0.92,0.97,and 0.95 respectively,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72.CONCLUSION This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities.It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.展开更多
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating a...Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.展开更多
The Bayesian structural equation model integrates the principles of Bayesian statistics, providing a more flexible and comprehensive modeling framework. In exploring complex relationships between variables, handling u...The Bayesian structural equation model integrates the principles of Bayesian statistics, providing a more flexible and comprehensive modeling framework. In exploring complex relationships between variables, handling uncertainty, and dealing with missing data, the Bayesian structural equation model demonstrates unique advantages. Therefore, Bayesian methods are used in this paper to establish a structural equation model of innovative talent cognition, with the measurement of college students’ cognition of innovative talent being studied. An in-depth analysis is conducted on the effects of innovative self-efficacy, social resources, innovative personality traits, and school education, aiming to explore the factors influencing college students’ innovative talent. The results indicate that innovative self-efficacy plays a key role in perception, social resources are significantly positively correlated with the perception of innovative talents, innovative personality tendencies and school education are positively correlated with the perception of innovative talents, but the impact is not significant.展开更多
Since orthogonal time-frequency space(OTFS)can effectively handle the problems caused by Doppler effect in high-mobility environment,it has gradually become a promising candidate for modulation scheme in the next gene...Since orthogonal time-frequency space(OTFS)can effectively handle the problems caused by Doppler effect in high-mobility environment,it has gradually become a promising candidate for modulation scheme in the next generation of mobile communication.However,the inter-Doppler interference(IDI)problem caused by fractional Doppler poses great challenges to channel estimation.To avoid this problem,this paper proposes a joint time and delayDoppler(DD)domain based on sparse Bayesian learning(SBL)channel estimation algorithm.Firstly,we derive the original channel response(OCR)from the time domain channel impulse response(CIR),which can reflect the channel variation during one OTFS symbol.Compare with the traditional channel model,the OCR can avoid the IDI problem.After that,the dimension of OCR is reduced by using the basis expansion model(BEM)and the relationship between the time and DD domain channel model,so that we have turned the underdetermined problem into an overdetermined problem.Finally,in terms of sparsity of channel in delay domain,SBL algorithm is used to estimate the basis coefficients in the BEM without any priori information of channel.The simulation results show the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed channel estimation algorithm.展开更多
The pneumatic gripper in industrial applications has the advantages of structure simplicity and great adaptability,but its gripping power is usually limited due to the low modulus of soft materials.To address this pro...The pneumatic gripper in industrial applications has the advantages of structure simplicity and great adaptability,but its gripping power is usually limited due to the low modulus of soft materials.To address this problem,a novel bionic pneumatic gripper inspired by spider legs is proposed.The design has two pairs of symmetrical fingers,each finger consists of two pneumatic actuated joints,two rigid links and one pneumatic soft pad.The rigid link connects the pneumatic chamber which is enclosed in a retractable shell to increase the actuation pressure and the gripping force.The compressibility and elasticity of the soft joint and pad enable the gripper to grasp fragile objects without damage.The modeling of the bionic gripper is developed,and the parameters of the joint actuators are optimized accordingly.The prototype is manufactured and tested with the developed experimental platform,where the gripping force,flexibility and adaptability are evaluated.The results indicate that the designed gripper can grasp irregular and fragile items in sizes from 40 to 140 mm without damage,and the lifting weight is up to 15 N.展开更多
An ocean-acoustic joint model is developed for research of acoustic propagation uncertainty in internal wave environments.The internal waves are numerically produced by tidal forcing over a continental slope using an ...An ocean-acoustic joint model is developed for research of acoustic propagation uncertainty in internal wave environments.The internal waves are numerically produced by tidal forcing over a continental slope using an ocean model.Three parameters(i.e.,internal wave,source depth,and water depth)contribute to the dynamic waveguide environments,and result in stochastic sound fields.The sensitivity of the transmission loss(TL)to environment parameters,statistical characteristics of the TL variation,and the associated physical mechanisms are investigated by the Sobol sensitivity analysis method,the Monte Carlo sampling,and the coupled normal mode theory,respectively.The results show that the TL is most sensitive to the source depth in the near field,resulted from the initial amplitudes of higher-order modes;while in middle and far fields,the internal waves are responsible for more than 80%of the total acoustic propagation contribution.In addition,the standard deviation of the TL in the near field and the shallow layer is smaller than those in the middle and far fields and the deep layer.展开更多
Automatic speech recognition(ASR)systems have emerged as indispensable tools across a wide spectrum of applications,ranging from transcription services to voice-activated assistants.To enhance the performance of these...Automatic speech recognition(ASR)systems have emerged as indispensable tools across a wide spectrum of applications,ranging from transcription services to voice-activated assistants.To enhance the performance of these systems,it is important to deploy efficient models capable of adapting to diverse deployment conditions.In recent years,on-demand pruning methods have obtained significant attention within the ASR domain due to their adaptability in various deployment scenarios.However,these methods often confront substantial trade-offs,particularly in terms of unstable accuracy when reducing the model size.To address challenges,this study introduces two crucial empirical findings.Firstly,it proposes the incorporation of an online distillation mechanism during on-demand pruning training,which holds the promise of maintaining more consistent accuracy levels.Secondly,it proposes the utilization of the Mogrifier long short-term memory(LSTM)language model(LM),an advanced iteration of the conventional LSTM LM,as an effective alternative for pruning targets within the ASR framework.Through rigorous experimentation on the ASR system,employing the Mogrifier LSTM LM and training it using the suggested joint on-demand pruning and online distillation method,this study provides compelling evidence.The results exhibit that the proposed methods significantly outperform a benchmark model trained solely with on-demand pruning methods.Impressively,the proposed strategic configuration successfully reduces the parameter count by approximately 39%,all the while minimizing trade-offs.展开更多
In this study,we employed a non-invasive approach based on the collisional radiative(CR)model and optical emission spectroscopy(OES)measurements for the characterization of gas tungsten arc welding(GTAW)discharge and ...In this study,we employed a non-invasive approach based on the collisional radiative(CR)model and optical emission spectroscopy(OES)measurements for the characterization of gas tungsten arc welding(GTAW)discharge and quantification of Zn-induced porosity during the GTAW process of Fe–Al joints.The OES measurements were recorded as a function of weld current,welding speed,and input waveform.The OES measurements revealed significant line emissions from Zn-I in 460–640 nm and Ar-I in 680–800 nm wavelength ranges in all experimental settings.The OES coupled CR model approach for Zn-I line emission enabled the simultaneous determination of both essential discharge parameters i.e.electron temperature and electron density.Further,these predictions were used to estimate the Zn-induced porosity using OES-actinometry on Zn-I emission lines using Ar as actinometer gas.The OES-actinometry results were in good agreement with porosity data derived from an independent approach,i.e.x-ray radiography images.The current study shows that OES-based techniques can provide an efficient route for real-time monitoring of weld quality and estimate porosity during the GTAW process of dissimilar metal joints.展开更多
Recently,the application of Bayesian updating to predict excavation-induced deformation has proven successful and improved prediction accuracy significantly.However,updating the ground settlement profile,which is cruc...Recently,the application of Bayesian updating to predict excavation-induced deformation has proven successful and improved prediction accuracy significantly.However,updating the ground settlement profile,which is crucial for determining potential damage to nearby infrastructures,has received limited attention.To address this,this paper proposes a physics-guided simplified model combined with a Bayesian updating framework to accurately predict the ground settlement profile.The advantage of this model is that it eliminates the need for complex finite element modeling and makes the updating framework user-friendly.Furthermore,the model is physically interpretable,which can provide valuable references for construction adjustments.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through two field case studies,showing that it can yield satisfactory predictions for the settlement profile.展开更多
The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely u...The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.展开更多
The multi-source passive localization problem is a problem of great interest in signal pro-cessing with many applications.In this paper,a sparse representation model based on covariance matrix is constructed for the l...The multi-source passive localization problem is a problem of great interest in signal pro-cessing with many applications.In this paper,a sparse representation model based on covariance matrix is constructed for the long-range localization scenario,and a sparse Bayesian learning algo-rithm based on Laplace prior of signal covariance is developed for the base mismatch problem caused by target deviation from the initial point grid.An adaptive grid sparse Bayesian learning targets localization(AGSBL)algorithm is proposed.The AGSBL algorithm implements a covari-ance-based sparse signal reconstruction and grid adaptive localization dictionary learning.Simula-tion results show that the AGSBL algorithm outperforms the traditional compressed-aware localiza-tion algorithm for different signal-to-noise ratios and different number of targets in long-range scenes.展开更多
There are abundant igneous gas reservoirs in the South China Sea with significant value of research,and lithology classification,mineral analysis and porosity inversion are important links in reservoir evaluation.Howe...There are abundant igneous gas reservoirs in the South China Sea with significant value of research,and lithology classification,mineral analysis and porosity inversion are important links in reservoir evaluation.However,affected by the diverse lithology,complicated mineral and widespread alteration,conventional logging lithology classification and mineral inversion become considerably difficult.At the same time,owing to the limitation of the wireline log response equation,the quantity and accuracy of minerals can hardly meet the exploration requirements of igneous formations.To overcome those issues,this study takes the South China Sea as an example,and combines multi-scale data such as micro rock slices,petrophysical experiments,wireline log and element cutting log to establish a set of joint inversion methods for minerals and porosity of altered igneous rocks.Specifically,we define the lithology and mineral characteristics through core slices and mineral data,and establish an igneous multi-mineral volumetric model.Then we determine element cutting log correction method based on core element data,and combine wireline log and corrected element cutting log to perform the lithology classification and joint inversion of minerals and porosity.However,it is always difficult to determine the elemental eigenvalues of different minerals in inversion.This paper uses multiple linear regression methods to solve this problem.Finally,an integrated inversion technique for altered igneous formations was developed.The results show that the corrected element cutting log are in good agreement with the core element data,and the mineral and porosity results obtained from the joint inversion based on the wireline log and corrected element cutting log are also in good agreement with the core data from X-ray diffraction.The results demonstrate that the inversion technique is applicable and this study provides a new direction for the mineral inversion research of altered igneous formations.展开更多
The mechanical characteristics and acoustic behavior of rock masses are greatly influenced by stochastic joints.In this study,numerical models of rock masses incorporating intermittent joints with different numbers an...The mechanical characteristics and acoustic behavior of rock masses are greatly influenced by stochastic joints.In this study,numerical models of rock masses incorporating intermittent joints with different numbers and dip angles were produced using the finite element method(FEM)with the intrinsic cohesive zone model(ICZM).Then,the uniaxial compressive and wave propagation simulations were performed.The results indicate that the joint number and dip angle can affect the mechanical and acoustic properties of the models.The uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and wave velocity of rock masses decrease monotonically as the joint number increases.However,the wave velocity grows monotonically as the joint dip angle increases.When the joint dip angle is 45°–60°,the UCS of the rock mass is lower than that of other dip angles.The wave velocity parallel to the joints is greater than that perpendicular to the joints.When the dip angle of joints remains unchanged,the UCS and wave velocity are positively related.When the joint dip angle increases,the variation amplitude of the UCS regarding the wave velocity increases.To reveal the effect of the joint distribution on the velocity,a theoretical model was also proposed.According to the theoretical wave velocity,the change in wave velocity of models with various joint numbers and dip angles was consistent with the simulation results.Furthermore,a theoretical indicator(i.e.fabric tensor)was adopted to analyze the variation of the wave velocity and UCS.展开更多
Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few s...Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few scholars have explored the unstable evolution of railway slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration.Based on the model test of sandy soil slope,the unstable evolution process of slope under locomotive vibration,rainfall,and rainfall-vibration joint action conditions was simulated in this paper.By comparing and analyzing the variation trends of soil pressure and water content of slope under these conditions,the change laws of pore pressure under the influence of vibration and rainfall were explored.The main control factors affecting the stability of slope structure under the joint action conditions were further defined.Combined with the slope failure phenomena under these three conditions,the causes of slope instability resulting from each leading factor were clarified.Finally,according to the above conclusions,the unstable evolution of the slope under the rainfall-vibration joint action was determined.The test results show that the unstable evolution process of sandy soil slope,under the rainfall-vibration joint action,can be divided into:rainfall erosion cracking,vibration promotion penetrating,and slope instability sliding three stages.In the process of slope unstable evolution,rainfall and vibration play the roles of inducing and promoting slide respectively.In addition,the deep cracks,which are the premise for the formation of the sliding surface,and the violent irregular fluctuation of soil pressure,which reflects the near penetration of the sliding surface,constitute the instability characteristics of the railway slope together.This paper reveals the unstable evolution of sandy soil slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration,hoping to provide the theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention technology of railway slopes.展开更多
The Beishan pluton in Gansu of China was selected as the simulated model.The simulation results indicate that the formation of unloading joints in granite is mainly influenced by the unloading rate of confin-ing press...The Beishan pluton in Gansu of China was selected as the simulated model.The simulation results indicate that the formation of unloading joints in granite is mainly influenced by the unloading rate of confin-ing pressure.Among the rates tested,the slowest unloading rate 0.025 MPa/s is found to be most conducive to the development of unloading joints.Therefore,a slower unloading rate is favourable for the occurrence of unloading joints.A series of simulations with varying initial depths of uplift ranging from 900 m to 200 m were conducted.The results confirm that when the specimen rises to a depth of 550-500 m,the unloading joints begin to form.The uplift from a depth of 700-500 m,with variations in both vertical and lateral un-loading rates,was simulated.The generation of unloading joints exhibits a negative correlation with vertical unloading and no correlation with lateral unloading,indicating that the unloading joints are mainly controlled by the unloading of vertical pressure.Throughout the simulation process,the vertical joints exhibit irregular and unrealistic regularity,suggesting a more complex formation mechanism than that of the unloading joints.展开更多
BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC...BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC as well as to identify the role of adjuvant therapy.METHODS Patients with curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma(T3 and T4)were selected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database between 2004 and 2015.A survival prediction model based on Bayesian network(BN)was constructed using the tree-augmented na?ve Bayes algorithm,and composite importance measures were applied to rank the influence of factors on survival.The dataset was divided into a training dataset to establish the BN model and a testing dataset to test the model randomly at a ratio of 7:3.The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model accuracy.RESULTS A total of 818 patients met the inclusion criteria.The median survival time was 9.0 mo.The accuracy of BN model was 69.67%,and the area under the curve value for the testing dataset was 77.72%.Adjuvant radiation,adjuvant chemotherapy(CTx),T stage,scope of regional lymph node surgery,and radiation sequence were ranked as the top five prognostic factors.A survival prediction table was established based on T stage,N stage,adjuvant radiotherapy(XRT),and CTx.The distribution of the survival time(>9.0 mo)was affected by different treatments with the order of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy(cXRT)>adjuvant radiation>adjuvant chemotherapy>surgery alone.For patients with node-positive disease,the larger benefit predicted by the model is adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.The survival analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the different adjuvant therapy groups(log rank,surgery alone vs CTx,P<0.001;surgery alone vs XRT,P=0.014;surgery alone vs cXRT,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The BN-based survival prediction model can be used as a decision-making support tool for advanced GBC patients.Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is expected to improve the survival significantly for patients with node-positive disease.展开更多
文摘Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.
基金Supported by the Chinese Nursing Association,No.ZHKY202111Scientific Research Program of School of Nursing,Chongqing Medical University,No.20230307Chongqing Science and Health Joint Medical Research Program,No.2024MSXM063.
文摘BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managing PHT,it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy,thus affecting patient survival prognosis.To our knowledge,existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes.Consequently,the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation.AIM To develop and validate a Bayesian network(BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS.METHODS The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods,and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.RESULTS Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival:age,ascites,hypertension,indications for TIPS,postoperative portal vein pressure(post-PVP),aspartate aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,total bilirubin,prealbumin,the Child-Pugh grade,and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score.Based on the above-mentioned variables,a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed,which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time:age,ascites,indications for TIPS,concurrent hypertension,post-PVP,the Child-Pugh grade,and the MELD score.The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04,and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16.The model’s accuracy,precision,recall,and F1 score were 0.90,0.92,0.97,and 0.95 respectively,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72.CONCLUSION This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities.It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.
基金supported by The Technology Innovation Team(Tianshan Innovation Team),Innovative Team for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Arid Regions(2022TSYCTD0001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171269)the Xinjiang Academician Workstation Cooperative Research Project(2020.B-001).
文摘Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.
文摘The Bayesian structural equation model integrates the principles of Bayesian statistics, providing a more flexible and comprehensive modeling framework. In exploring complex relationships between variables, handling uncertainty, and dealing with missing data, the Bayesian structural equation model demonstrates unique advantages. Therefore, Bayesian methods are used in this paper to establish a structural equation model of innovative talent cognition, with the measurement of college students’ cognition of innovative talent being studied. An in-depth analysis is conducted on the effects of innovative self-efficacy, social resources, innovative personality traits, and school education, aiming to explore the factors influencing college students’ innovative talent. The results indicate that innovative self-efficacy plays a key role in perception, social resources are significantly positively correlated with the perception of innovative talents, innovative personality tendencies and school education are positively correlated with the perception of innovative talents, but the impact is not significant.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(No.cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0017)。
文摘Since orthogonal time-frequency space(OTFS)can effectively handle the problems caused by Doppler effect in high-mobility environment,it has gradually become a promising candidate for modulation scheme in the next generation of mobile communication.However,the inter-Doppler interference(IDI)problem caused by fractional Doppler poses great challenges to channel estimation.To avoid this problem,this paper proposes a joint time and delayDoppler(DD)domain based on sparse Bayesian learning(SBL)channel estimation algorithm.Firstly,we derive the original channel response(OCR)from the time domain channel impulse response(CIR),which can reflect the channel variation during one OTFS symbol.Compare with the traditional channel model,the OCR can avoid the IDI problem.After that,the dimension of OCR is reduced by using the basis expansion model(BEM)and the relationship between the time and DD domain channel model,so that we have turned the underdetermined problem into an overdetermined problem.Finally,in terms of sparsity of channel in delay domain,SBL algorithm is used to estimate the basis coefficients in the BEM without any priori information of channel.The simulation results show the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed channel estimation algorithm.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52175100,51975394)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20211336).
文摘The pneumatic gripper in industrial applications has the advantages of structure simplicity and great adaptability,but its gripping power is usually limited due to the low modulus of soft materials.To address this problem,a novel bionic pneumatic gripper inspired by spider legs is proposed.The design has two pairs of symmetrical fingers,each finger consists of two pneumatic actuated joints,two rigid links and one pneumatic soft pad.The rigid link connects the pneumatic chamber which is enclosed in a retractable shell to increase the actuation pressure and the gripping force.The compressibility and elasticity of the soft joint and pad enable the gripper to grasp fragile objects without damage.The modeling of the bionic gripper is developed,and the parameters of the joint actuators are optimized accordingly.The prototype is manufactured and tested with the developed experimental platform,where the gripping force,flexibility and adaptability are evaluated.The results indicate that the designed gripper can grasp irregular and fragile items in sizes from 40 to 140 mm without damage,and the lifting weight is up to 15 N.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0607900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42176019 and 11874061)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS(Grant No.2021023).
文摘An ocean-acoustic joint model is developed for research of acoustic propagation uncertainty in internal wave environments.The internal waves are numerically produced by tidal forcing over a continental slope using an ocean model.Three parameters(i.e.,internal wave,source depth,and water depth)contribute to the dynamic waveguide environments,and result in stochastic sound fields.The sensitivity of the transmission loss(TL)to environment parameters,statistical characteristics of the TL variation,and the associated physical mechanisms are investigated by the Sobol sensitivity analysis method,the Monte Carlo sampling,and the coupled normal mode theory,respectively.The results show that the TL is most sensitive to the source depth in the near field,resulted from the initial amplitudes of higher-order modes;while in middle and far fields,the internal waves are responsible for more than 80%of the total acoustic propagation contribution.In addition,the standard deviation of the TL in the near field and the shallow layer is smaller than those in the middle and far fields and the deep layer.
基金supported by Institute of Information&communications Technology Planning&Evaluation(IITP)grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT)(No.2022-0-00377,Development of Intelligent Analysis and Classification Based Contents Class Categorization Technique to Prevent Imprudent Harmful Media Distribution).
文摘Automatic speech recognition(ASR)systems have emerged as indispensable tools across a wide spectrum of applications,ranging from transcription services to voice-activated assistants.To enhance the performance of these systems,it is important to deploy efficient models capable of adapting to diverse deployment conditions.In recent years,on-demand pruning methods have obtained significant attention within the ASR domain due to their adaptability in various deployment scenarios.However,these methods often confront substantial trade-offs,particularly in terms of unstable accuracy when reducing the model size.To address challenges,this study introduces two crucial empirical findings.Firstly,it proposes the incorporation of an online distillation mechanism during on-demand pruning training,which holds the promise of maintaining more consistent accuracy levels.Secondly,it proposes the utilization of the Mogrifier long short-term memory(LSTM)language model(LM),an advanced iteration of the conventional LSTM LM,as an effective alternative for pruning targets within the ASR framework.Through rigorous experimentation on the ASR system,employing the Mogrifier LSTM LM and training it using the suggested joint on-demand pruning and online distillation method,this study provides compelling evidence.The results exhibit that the proposed methods significantly outperform a benchmark model trained solely with on-demand pruning methods.Impressively,the proposed strategic configuration successfully reduces the parameter count by approximately 39%,all the while minimizing trade-offs.
基金the Ministry of Human Resources and Development(MHRD),Government of India,for providing HTRA fellowshipthe support by the SERB,India,for listed Grants(Nos.CRG/2018/000419,CVD/2020/000458,and SB/S2/RJN-093/2015)+1 种基金Core Research Grant,India(No.CRG/2020/005089)IIT Tirupati,India(No.MEE/18-19/008/NFSG/DEGA)。
文摘In this study,we employed a non-invasive approach based on the collisional radiative(CR)model and optical emission spectroscopy(OES)measurements for the characterization of gas tungsten arc welding(GTAW)discharge and quantification of Zn-induced porosity during the GTAW process of Fe–Al joints.The OES measurements were recorded as a function of weld current,welding speed,and input waveform.The OES measurements revealed significant line emissions from Zn-I in 460–640 nm and Ar-I in 680–800 nm wavelength ranges in all experimental settings.The OES coupled CR model approach for Zn-I line emission enabled the simultaneous determination of both essential discharge parameters i.e.electron temperature and electron density.Further,these predictions were used to estimate the Zn-induced porosity using OES-actinometry on Zn-I emission lines using Ar as actinometer gas.The OES-actinometry results were in good agreement with porosity data derived from an independent approach,i.e.x-ray radiography images.The current study shows that OES-based techniques can provide an efficient route for real-time monitoring of weld quality and estimate porosity during the GTAW process of dissimilar metal joints.
基金the financial support from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2022A0505030019)the Science and Technology Development Fund,Macao SAR,China(File Nos.0056/2023/RIB2 and SKL-IOTSC-2021-2023).
文摘Recently,the application of Bayesian updating to predict excavation-induced deformation has proven successful and improved prediction accuracy significantly.However,updating the ground settlement profile,which is crucial for determining potential damage to nearby infrastructures,has received limited attention.To address this,this paper proposes a physics-guided simplified model combined with a Bayesian updating framework to accurately predict the ground settlement profile.The advantage of this model is that it eliminates the need for complex finite element modeling and makes the updating framework user-friendly.Furthermore,the model is physically interpretable,which can provide valuable references for construction adjustments.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through two field case studies,showing that it can yield satisfactory predictions for the settlement profile.
基金supported by the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011244).
文摘The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.
文摘The multi-source passive localization problem is a problem of great interest in signal pro-cessing with many applications.In this paper,a sparse representation model based on covariance matrix is constructed for the long-range localization scenario,and a sparse Bayesian learning algo-rithm based on Laplace prior of signal covariance is developed for the base mismatch problem caused by target deviation from the initial point grid.An adaptive grid sparse Bayesian learning targets localization(AGSBL)algorithm is proposed.The AGSBL algorithm implements a covari-ance-based sparse signal reconstruction and grid adaptive localization dictionary learning.Simula-tion results show that the AGSBL algorithm outperforms the traditional compressed-aware localiza-tion algorithm for different signal-to-noise ratios and different number of targets in long-range scenes.
基金The project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42204122).
文摘There are abundant igneous gas reservoirs in the South China Sea with significant value of research,and lithology classification,mineral analysis and porosity inversion are important links in reservoir evaluation.However,affected by the diverse lithology,complicated mineral and widespread alteration,conventional logging lithology classification and mineral inversion become considerably difficult.At the same time,owing to the limitation of the wireline log response equation,the quantity and accuracy of minerals can hardly meet the exploration requirements of igneous formations.To overcome those issues,this study takes the South China Sea as an example,and combines multi-scale data such as micro rock slices,petrophysical experiments,wireline log and element cutting log to establish a set of joint inversion methods for minerals and porosity of altered igneous rocks.Specifically,we define the lithology and mineral characteristics through core slices and mineral data,and establish an igneous multi-mineral volumetric model.Then we determine element cutting log correction method based on core element data,and combine wireline log and corrected element cutting log to perform the lithology classification and joint inversion of minerals and porosity.However,it is always difficult to determine the elemental eigenvalues of different minerals in inversion.This paper uses multiple linear regression methods to solve this problem.Finally,an integrated inversion technique for altered igneous formations was developed.The results show that the corrected element cutting log are in good agreement with the core element data,and the mineral and porosity results obtained from the joint inversion based on the wireline log and corrected element cutting log are also in good agreement with the core data from X-ray diffraction.The results demonstrate that the inversion technique is applicable and this study provides a new direction for the mineral inversion research of altered igneous formations.
基金financial support from the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0711802).
文摘The mechanical characteristics and acoustic behavior of rock masses are greatly influenced by stochastic joints.In this study,numerical models of rock masses incorporating intermittent joints with different numbers and dip angles were produced using the finite element method(FEM)with the intrinsic cohesive zone model(ICZM).Then,the uniaxial compressive and wave propagation simulations were performed.The results indicate that the joint number and dip angle can affect the mechanical and acoustic properties of the models.The uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and wave velocity of rock masses decrease monotonically as the joint number increases.However,the wave velocity grows monotonically as the joint dip angle increases.When the joint dip angle is 45°–60°,the UCS of the rock mass is lower than that of other dip angles.The wave velocity parallel to the joints is greater than that perpendicular to the joints.When the dip angle of joints remains unchanged,the UCS and wave velocity are positively related.When the joint dip angle increases,the variation amplitude of the UCS regarding the wave velocity increases.To reveal the effect of the joint distribution on the velocity,a theoretical model was also proposed.According to the theoretical wave velocity,the change in wave velocity of models with various joint numbers and dip angles was consistent with the simulation results.Furthermore,a theoretical indicator(i.e.fabric tensor)was adopted to analyze the variation of the wave velocity and UCS.
基金supported by the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42027806)the Key Programme of the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41630639)National Natural Science Foundation of China General Program(Grant No.42372324).
文摘Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few scholars have explored the unstable evolution of railway slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration.Based on the model test of sandy soil slope,the unstable evolution process of slope under locomotive vibration,rainfall,and rainfall-vibration joint action conditions was simulated in this paper.By comparing and analyzing the variation trends of soil pressure and water content of slope under these conditions,the change laws of pore pressure under the influence of vibration and rainfall were explored.The main control factors affecting the stability of slope structure under the joint action conditions were further defined.Combined with the slope failure phenomena under these three conditions,the causes of slope instability resulting from each leading factor were clarified.Finally,according to the above conclusions,the unstable evolution of the slope under the rainfall-vibration joint action was determined.The test results show that the unstable evolution process of sandy soil slope,under the rainfall-vibration joint action,can be divided into:rainfall erosion cracking,vibration promotion penetrating,and slope instability sliding three stages.In the process of slope unstable evolution,rainfall and vibration play the roles of inducing and promoting slide respectively.In addition,the deep cracks,which are the premise for the formation of the sliding surface,and the violent irregular fluctuation of soil pressure,which reflects the near penetration of the sliding surface,constitute the instability characteristics of the railway slope together.This paper reveals the unstable evolution of sandy soil slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration,hoping to provide the theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention technology of railway slopes.
文摘The Beishan pluton in Gansu of China was selected as the simulated model.The simulation results indicate that the formation of unloading joints in granite is mainly influenced by the unloading rate of confin-ing pressure.Among the rates tested,the slowest unloading rate 0.025 MPa/s is found to be most conducive to the development of unloading joints.Therefore,a slower unloading rate is favourable for the occurrence of unloading joints.A series of simulations with varying initial depths of uplift ranging from 900 m to 200 m were conducted.The results confirm that when the specimen rises to a depth of 550-500 m,the unloading joints begin to form.The uplift from a depth of 700-500 m,with variations in both vertical and lateral un-loading rates,was simulated.The generation of unloading joints exhibits a negative correlation with vertical unloading and no correlation with lateral unloading,indicating that the unloading joints are mainly controlled by the unloading of vertical pressure.Throughout the simulation process,the vertical joints exhibit irregular and unrealistic regularity,suggesting a more complex formation mechanism than that of the unloading joints.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81572420 and No.71871181the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province,No.2017ZDXM-SF-055the Multicenter Clinical Research Project of School of Medicine,Shanghai Jiaotong University,No.DLY201807
文摘BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC as well as to identify the role of adjuvant therapy.METHODS Patients with curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma(T3 and T4)were selected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database between 2004 and 2015.A survival prediction model based on Bayesian network(BN)was constructed using the tree-augmented na?ve Bayes algorithm,and composite importance measures were applied to rank the influence of factors on survival.The dataset was divided into a training dataset to establish the BN model and a testing dataset to test the model randomly at a ratio of 7:3.The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model accuracy.RESULTS A total of 818 patients met the inclusion criteria.The median survival time was 9.0 mo.The accuracy of BN model was 69.67%,and the area under the curve value for the testing dataset was 77.72%.Adjuvant radiation,adjuvant chemotherapy(CTx),T stage,scope of regional lymph node surgery,and radiation sequence were ranked as the top five prognostic factors.A survival prediction table was established based on T stage,N stage,adjuvant radiotherapy(XRT),and CTx.The distribution of the survival time(>9.0 mo)was affected by different treatments with the order of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy(cXRT)>adjuvant radiation>adjuvant chemotherapy>surgery alone.For patients with node-positive disease,the larger benefit predicted by the model is adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.The survival analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the different adjuvant therapy groups(log rank,surgery alone vs CTx,P<0.001;surgery alone vs XRT,P=0.014;surgery alone vs cXRT,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The BN-based survival prediction model can be used as a decision-making support tool for advanced GBC patients.Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is expected to improve the survival significantly for patients with node-positive disease.
