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Use of SWAT to Model Impact of Climate Change on Sediment Yield and Agricultural Productivity in Western Oregon, USA
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作者 G. W. Mueller-Warrant C. L. Phillips K. M. Trippe 《Open Journal of Modern Hydrology》 2019年第2期54-88,共35页
Climate change predictions for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States of America include increasing temperatures, intensification of winter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow/rain to rain-dominant e... Climate change predictions for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States of America include increasing temperatures, intensification of winter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow/rain to rain-dominant events, all of which may increase the risk of soil erosion and threaten agricultural and ecological productivity. Here we used the agricultural/environmental model SWAT with climate predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) “high CO2 emissions” scenario (RCP8.5) to study the impact of altered temperature and precipitation patterns on soil erosion and crop productivity in the Willamette River Basin of western Oregon. An ensemble of 10 climate models representing the full range in temperature and precipitation predictions of CIMP5 produced substantial increases in sediment yield, with differences between yearly averages for the final (2090-2099) and first (2010-2019) decades ranging from 3.9 to 15.2 MT&middot;ha-1 among models. Sediment yield in the worst case model (CanESM2) corresponded to loss of 1.5 - 2.7 mm&middot;soil&middot;y-1, equivalent to potentially stripping productive topsoil from the landscape in under two centuries. Most climate models predicted only small increases in precipitation (an average of 5.8% by the end of the 21st century) combined with large increases in temperature (an average of 0.05&deg;C&middot;y-1). We found a strong correlation between predicted temperature increases and sediment yield, with a regression model combining both temperature and precipitation effects describing 79% of the total variation in annual sediment yield. A critical component of response to increased temperature was reduced snowfall during high precipitation events in the wintertime. SWAT characterized years with less than basin-wide averages of 20 mm of precipitation falling as snow as likely to experience severe sediment loss for multiple crops/land uses. Mid-elevation sub-basins that are projected to shift from rain-snow transition to rain-dominant appear particularly vulnerable to sediment loss. Analyses of predicted crop yields indicated declining productivity for many commonly grown grass seed and cereal crops, along with increasing productivity for certain other crops. Adaptation by agriculture and forestry to warmer, more erosive conditions may include changes in selection of crop kinds and in production management practices. 展开更多
关键词 CLIMATE Change SEDIMENT Yield Soil Water Assessment Tool SWAT Coupled MODEL Intercomparison Project 5 cimp5 Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE
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1.5和2℃升温阈值下中国温度和降水变化的预估 被引量:12
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作者 周梦子 周广胜 +2 位作者 吕晓敏 周莉 汲玉河 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第4期728-744,共17页
基于CMIP5耦合气候模式模拟结果对1.5和2℃升温阈值时中国温度和降水变化的分析表明,1.5℃升温阈值时,中国年平均升温由南向北加强且在青藏高原地区有所放大,季节尺度上升温的空间分布与其类似,就区域平均而言,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5... 基于CMIP5耦合气候模式模拟结果对1.5和2℃升温阈值时中国温度和降水变化的分析表明,1.5℃升温阈值时,中国年平均升温由南向北加强且在青藏高原地区有所放大,季节尺度上升温的空间分布与其类似,就区域平均而言,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国年平均气温分别升高1.83、1.75和1.88℃,气温的季节变幅以冬季升高最为显著;除华南和西南地区外中国大部分地区年平均降水量增多,降水的季节差异明显,以夏季降水的分布模态与年平均降水量的分布最为相似,区域平均的年降水量分别增加5.03%、2.82%和3.27%,季节尺度上以冬季降水增幅最大。2℃升温阈值时,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国年平均温度的空间分布与1.5℃升温阈值基本一致,中国年平均气温分别升高2.49和2.54℃,季节尺度上气温的变化以秋、冬季增幅最大;中国范围内年平均降水量基本表现为增多趋势,其中,西北和长江中下游部分地区表现为明显的季节差异,区域平均的年降水量分别增加6.26%和5.86%。与1.5℃升温阈值相比较,2℃升温阈值时中国年平均温度在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别升高0.74和0.76℃,降水则分别增加3.44%和2.59%,空间上温度升高以东北、西北和青藏高原最为显著,降水则在东北、华北、青藏高原和华南地区增加最为明显。 展开更多
关键词 CMIP5耦合气候模式 气候变化 预估 1.5℃升温阈值 2℃升温阈值
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基于CMIP5情景下叶尔羌河上游水沙量预测 被引量:4
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作者 居金浩 彭亮 《水利科技与经济》 2022年第2期1-7,共7页
基于栏干站实测数据和CMIP5模拟数据驱动BP神经网络模型,预测叶尔羌河流域上游阿尔塔什水库未来入库水沙量情况。研究结果表明,径流、输沙预测量在CNRM-CM5、MIROC-ESM两个模式中RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景增长平缓,在RCP8.5情景下增长较为显著... 基于栏干站实测数据和CMIP5模拟数据驱动BP神经网络模型,预测叶尔羌河流域上游阿尔塔什水库未来入库水沙量情况。研究结果表明,径流、输沙预测量在CNRM-CM5、MIROC-ESM两个模式中RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景增长平缓,在RCP8.5情景下增长较为显著;NorESM1-M模式中3种情景的径流、输沙预测量均表现出平稳增长的态势,其中RCP4.5情景下增加较为明显,RCP8.5情景次之。 展开更多
关键词 BP神经网络 输沙量 径流量 CMIP5 叶尔羌河
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