This research explores upside and downside jumps in the dynamic processes of three rates:domestic interest rates,foreign interest rates,and exchange rates.To fill the gap between the asymmetric jump in the currency ma...This research explores upside and downside jumps in the dynamic processes of three rates:domestic interest rates,foreign interest rates,and exchange rates.To fill the gap between the asymmetric jump in the currency market and the current models,a correlated asymmetric jump model is proposed to capture the co-movement of the correlated jump risks for the three rates and identify the correlated jump risk premia.The likelihood ratio test results show that the new model performs best in 1-,3-,6-,and 12-month maturities.The in-and out-of-sample test results indicate that the new model can capture more risk factors with relatively small pricing errors.Finally,the risk factors captured by the new model can explain the exchange rate fluctuations for various economic events.展开更多
We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,...We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.展开更多
Many types of cryptocurrencies,which predominantly utilize blockchain technology,have emerged worldwide.Several issuers plan to circulate their original cryptocurrencies for monetary use.This study investigates whethe...Many types of cryptocurrencies,which predominantly utilize blockchain technology,have emerged worldwide.Several issuers plan to circulate their original cryptocurrencies for monetary use.This study investigates whether issuers can stimulate cryptocurrencies to attain a monetary function.We use a multi-agent model,referred to as the Yasutomi model,which simulates the emergence of money.We analyze two scenarios that may result from the actions taken by the issuer.These scenarios focus on increases in the number of stores that accept cryptocurrency payments and situations whereby the cryptocurrency issuer designs the cryptocurrency to be attractive to people and conducts an airdrop.We find that a cryptocurrency can attain a monetary function in two cases.One such case occurs when 20%of all agents accept the cryptocurrency for payment and 50%of the agents are aware of this fact.The second case occurs when the issuer continuously airdrops a cryptocurrency to a specific person while maintaining the total volume of the cryptocurrency within a range that prevents it from losing its attractiveness.展开更多
The importance of cryptocurrency to the global economy is increasing steadily,which is evidenced by a total market capitalization of over$2.18T as of December 17,2021,according to coinmarketcap.com(Coin,2021).Cryptocu...The importance of cryptocurrency to the global economy is increasing steadily,which is evidenced by a total market capitalization of over$2.18T as of December 17,2021,according to coinmarketcap.com(Coin,2021).Cryptocurrencies are too confusing for laymen and require more investigation.In this study,we analyze the impact that the effective reproductive rate,an epidemiological indicator of the spread of COVID-19,has on both the price and trading volume of eight of the largest digital currencies—Bitcoin,Ethereum,Tether,Ripple,Litecoin,Bitcoin Cash,Cardano,and Binance.We hypothesize that as the rate of spread decreases,the trading price of the digital currency increases.Using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models,we find that the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the price and trading volume of cryptocurrencies varies by currency and region.These findings offer novel insight into the cryptocurrency market and the impact that the viral spread of COVID-19 has on the value of the major cryptocurrencies.展开更多
DCEP is the Chinese version of Central Bank Digital Currency(CBDC).It is the only legal digital currency in China and meets four conditions:(a)it is issued by the central bank;(b)it is digitized;(c)it is account and w...DCEP is the Chinese version of Central Bank Digital Currency(CBDC).It is the only legal digital currency in China and meets four conditions:(a)it is issued by the central bank;(b)it is digitized;(c)it is account and wallet based;(d)it is oriented towards the general public.As a retail central bank digital currency,it has three main technical features:a“tiered limit arrangement”(small-scale payments can be made anonymously while large-scale payments cannot),a“two-tier operating system”(as with the central bank-commercial bank traditional model),and a“dual offline payment system”(supporting both parties of the transaction).Compared with CBDCs in other countries,China’s DCEP has smaller economic impacts,more obscure strategic goals,and more scarce technical details.But its progress in testing is ahead of central banks of other countries.This article is based on public information and is intended to explain what DCEP is and why and how it was developed.It also offers suggestions for future research.展开更多
Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may a...Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.展开更多
This research investigates the appropriateness of the linear specification of the market model for modeling and forecasting the cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods.Two extensions are off...This research investigates the appropriateness of the linear specification of the market model for modeling and forecasting the cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods.Two extensions are offered to compare the performance of the linear specification of the market model(LMM),which allows for the measurement of the cryptocurrency price beta risk.The first is the generalized additive model,which permits flexibility in the rigid shape of the linearity of the LMM.The second is the time-varying linearity specification of the LMM(Tv-LMM),which is based on the state space model form via the Kalman filter,allowing for the measurement of the time-varying beta risk of the cryptocurrency price.The analysis is performed using daily data from both time periods on the top 10 cryptocurrencies by adjusted market capitalization,using the Crypto Currency Index 30(CCI30)as a market proxy and 1-day and 7-day forward predictions.Such a comparison of cryptocurrency prices has yet to be undertaken in the literature.The empirical findings favor the Tv-LMM,which outperforms the others in terms of modeling and forecasting performance.This result suggests that the relationship between each cryptocurrency price and the CCI30 index should be locally instead of globally linear,especially during the COVID-19 period.展开更多
In this paper we present an application of fuzzy estimators method to price European call currency option. We make use of fuzzy estimators for the volatility of exchange rate which based on statistical data to obtain ...In this paper we present an application of fuzzy estimators method to price European call currency option. We make use of fuzzy estimators for the volatility of exchange rate which based on statistical data to obtain the fuzzy pattern of G-K model. A numerical example is presented to get the -level closed intervals of the European call currency option fuzzy price.展开更多
The aim of the current research paper is to review what the Government of Egypt (GOE) has done to alleviate hardship conditions facing vulnerable low-income citizens, including its civil servants, during the implement...The aim of the current research paper is to review what the Government of Egypt (GOE) has done to alleviate hardship conditions facing vulnerable low-income citizens, including its civil servants, during the implementation of the recent International Monetary Fund Economic Reform program. The main research questions are: What policies and initiatives has the GOE pursued post its currency devaluation in order to alleviate hardships on the most vulnerable? And to what extent are we now a more “socially equitable” nation? The paper provides a background about the 2016 currency devaluation decision, presents a conceptual framework explaining the relation between different economic ideologies and the impact on the vulnerable groups in society, elaborates on why we should seek social justice in Egypt, and then finally examines and assesses some of the government’s efforts in trying to alleviate hardships, including the Takaful and Karama Program, the Amman certificate, and the impact on the pay scale of government employees. Some of the recommendations made by the paper include: the need to apply true conditionality in the claimed “Conditional Cash Transfer Programs”, to re-consider government employees’ compensation, and to re-allocate national resources to what matters in a more transparent manner.展开更多
The contagion aspect of the currency crisis is an important research issue today.In this paper, we set up a dynamic differential model of currency crisis cross contagions between two countries by expanding generalized...The contagion aspect of the currency crisis is an important research issue today.In this paper, we set up a dynamic differential model of currency crisis cross contagions between two countries by expanding generalized logistics model, and analyze all kinds of possible equilibrium conditions. It is probably a new idea of studying currency crisis contagion mechanism.展开更多
Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of Ame...Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of America (USA), along with the member countries of the Euro Zone (European Monetary Union, or EMU). The main purpose is to know the divergence between public debt, average inflation ﹣0% in the graphs—in the main cities or regions of the first two, and compare them with the countries of the EMU. The period of 2001-2012 is chosen to be the years in which the Euro has been circulating among member countries of the Monetary Union (EMU). We find significant differences that allow us to determine the faults that the criteria of divergence on these variables had on the founding treaty of the European Monetary Union.展开更多
Currently,the only central bank digital currencies(CBDC)in the world is Venezuela^currency^Petro.Nowadays,the IMF,BIS,and major countries have conducted a lot of research on CBDC.It's an urgent issue for the centr...Currently,the only central bank digital currencies(CBDC)in the world is Venezuela^currency^Petro.Nowadays,the IMF,BIS,and major countries have conducted a lot of research on CBDC.It's an urgent issue for the central bank to issue CBDC,determine and formulate the circulation of CBDC and the issuance speed,and supervise it.Therefore,establishing ARMA and VARs by sorting out literature,the paper uses the characteristics of CBDC—cash,and similarities with third-party payment in terms of payment to determine the circulation of CDBC by third-party payment users and currency in circulation.The model calculates and predicts the speed of circulation of digital currency.The issuance of CBDC will accelerate the circulation of money.In this regard,we will explore the impact of money supply on monetary policy and make relevant recommendations.展开更多
This paper proposes a method based on Markov Logic Network (MLN) to determine the time order of entity attribute values. We use the characteristics of web sources’ currency, web sources inter-dependency and attribute...This paper proposes a method based on Markov Logic Network (MLN) to determine the time order of entity attribute values. We use the characteristics of web sources’ currency, web sources inter-dependency and attribute data currency in a certain web source as predicates in MLN. We define five rules (new rules can be added) to infer the currency of different values provided by different sources. On one hand, this method considers currency problem based on entity attribute instead of the entire entity, which is critical to improve the qualityof data provided by Web Integration Systems; on the other hand, this method summarizes characteristics of web sources and web data based on carefully analysis. It is noteworthy that it is not complicate for the MLN model to incorporate new rules, which shows that the proposed method is extensible.展开更多
As the global economy is recovering in a unpredictable road, some other threats exist in the possibility of a currency war,resulting in more pressure for China. The latest depreciation
It's just one month after the Chinese Spring Festival. "Gong Xi Fa Cai!" is heard in every corner of life prior to and during Spring Festival in China when the Year of Ox sets in,heralding an auspicious ...It's just one month after the Chinese Spring Festival. "Gong Xi Fa Cai!" is heard in every corner of life prior to and during Spring Festival in China when the Year of Ox sets in,heralding an auspicious arrival of Spring. Besides commonly-used greeting words of wising you a happy,healthy and prosperous new year,the "Gong Xi Fa Cai",literally meaning "congratulations on making money and wealth",is the best-echoed expression for new year greetings,and pleasingly evidenced by mascots of toy ox dressed in beautiful clothes with the Yuan(Chinese money) imprints and decorations that can be found in street stalls,department stores and shop malls. Yes,money is conspicuous in the traditional reveling rituals,and will the most likely be more conspicuous for the country and its textile economy as its value issue is reiterated in a tune of different expression.展开更多
This study examines the portfolio diversification benefits of alternative currency trading in Bitcoin and foreign exchange markets.The following methods are applied for the analysis:the spillover index method of Diebo...This study examines the portfolio diversification benefits of alternative currency trading in Bitcoin and foreign exchange markets.The following methods are applied for the analysis:the spillover index method of Diebold and Yilmaz(Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66,2012.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfor ecast.2011.02.006),the spillover asymmetry measures of Barunik et al.(J Int Money Finance 77:39–56,2017.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimon fin.2017.06.003),and the frequency connectedness method of Barunik and Křehlik(J Financ Econom 16(2):271–296,2018.https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfin ec/nby001).The findings identify the presence of low-level integration and asymmetric volatility spillover as well as a dominant role of short horizon spillover among Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs for six major trading currencies(US dollar,euro,Japanese yen,British pound sterling,Australian dollar,and Canadian dollar).Bitcoin is found to provide significant portfolio diversification benefits for alternative currency foreign exchange portfolios.Alternative currency Bitcoin trading in euro is found to provide the most significant portfolio diversification benefits for foreign exchange portfolios consisting of major trading currencies.The findings of the study regarding spillover dynamics and portfolio diversification capabilities of the Bitcoin market for foreign exchange markets of major trading currencies have significant implications for portfolio diversification and risk minimization.展开更多
The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on centr...The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.展开更多
Due not only to a dominant role of the US dollar in regional trade and financial transactions but also to de facto US dollar pegged exchange rate policy,Asian countries cannot avoid exchange rate risks between their o...Due not only to a dominant role of the US dollar in regional trade and financial transactions but also to de facto US dollar pegged exchange rate policy,Asian countries cannot avoid exchange rate risks between their own currency and the US dollar.In recent years,however,the Chinese government has actively promoted the Renminbi(RMB)internationalisation especially in intermational trade.In December 2015,China introduced a new exchange rate index against a basket of 13 trade-weighted currencies,which can be considered a major turning point from the US dollar standard toward a more flexible currency basket system.However,the estimated implicit basket weights reveal that several Asian economies still tend to stabilise their currencies against the US dollar,while Malaysia and Singapore have stabilised their currencies against RMB in recent years.Since the internationalisation of local currencies and regional monetary arrangements are typically facilitated with each other,further progress of RMB internationalisation is expected to promote a leading role of China in establishing regional exchange rate policy coordination.展开更多
We propose a new international monetary system based on carbon currency(the carbon standard)to tackle two pressing externalities in today’s global economic and political context:the dangerous and irreversible effects...We propose a new international monetary system based on carbon currency(the carbon standard)to tackle two pressing externalities in today’s global economic and political context:the dangerous and irreversible effects caused by unconstrained green-house gas emissions and the cost to the rest of the world as a result of the U.S.dollar being the dominated global currency and the U.S.Federal Reserve increasingly implementing monetary policies not aligned with the global common interest.We define carbon currency as standardized carbon-related securities backed up by the right of one unit of carbon emissions.It can be used as a new global reserve currency and functions as an international unit of account.Through the trading of carbon currency,efficient carbon prices are established.By incorporating the cost of carbon emissions into decision making,carbon pricing provides incentives for countries to pursue low-carbon growth,which helps achieve the net zero emissions global goal set under the 2015 Paris Agreement.Under the carbon standard,the external shocks to the international financial system would come from variations of carbon emissions rather than the U.S.monetary policies.As such,monetary authorities’commitment to maintaining stable exchange rates comes together with monetary policies aiming at pursuing low-carbon growth.The new system potentially poses a plausible solution to the classical Mundellian Trilemma because the objectives of maintaining fixed exchange rate and implementing monetary policy become one.Although several hurdles are constraining the launch of carbon currency immediately,the carbon standard poses a feasible international monetary system as the world-wide campaign to achieve carbon neutrality progresses.展开更多
文摘This research explores upside and downside jumps in the dynamic processes of three rates:domestic interest rates,foreign interest rates,and exchange rates.To fill the gap between the asymmetric jump in the currency market and the current models,a correlated asymmetric jump model is proposed to capture the co-movement of the correlated jump risks for the three rates and identify the correlated jump risk premia.The likelihood ratio test results show that the new model performs best in 1-,3-,6-,and 12-month maturities.The in-and out-of-sample test results indicate that the new model can capture more risk factors with relatively small pricing errors.Finally,the risk factors captured by the new model can explain the exchange rate fluctuations for various economic events.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,Grant No.2023A1515030221.
文摘We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
文摘Many types of cryptocurrencies,which predominantly utilize blockchain technology,have emerged worldwide.Several issuers plan to circulate their original cryptocurrencies for monetary use.This study investigates whether issuers can stimulate cryptocurrencies to attain a monetary function.We use a multi-agent model,referred to as the Yasutomi model,which simulates the emergence of money.We analyze two scenarios that may result from the actions taken by the issuer.These scenarios focus on increases in the number of stores that accept cryptocurrency payments and situations whereby the cryptocurrency issuer designs the cryptocurrency to be attractive to people and conducts an airdrop.We find that a cryptocurrency can attain a monetary function in two cases.One such case occurs when 20%of all agents accept the cryptocurrency for payment and 50%of the agents are aware of this fact.The second case occurs when the issuer continuously airdrops a cryptocurrency to a specific person while maintaining the total volume of the cryptocurrency within a range that prevents it from losing its attractiveness.
文摘The importance of cryptocurrency to the global economy is increasing steadily,which is evidenced by a total market capitalization of over$2.18T as of December 17,2021,according to coinmarketcap.com(Coin,2021).Cryptocurrencies are too confusing for laymen and require more investigation.In this study,we analyze the impact that the effective reproductive rate,an epidemiological indicator of the spread of COVID-19,has on both the price and trading volume of eight of the largest digital currencies—Bitcoin,Ethereum,Tether,Ripple,Litecoin,Bitcoin Cash,Cardano,and Binance.We hypothesize that as the rate of spread decreases,the trading price of the digital currency increases.Using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models,we find that the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the price and trading volume of cryptocurrencies varies by currency and region.These findings offer novel insight into the cryptocurrency market and the impact that the viral spread of COVID-19 has on the value of the major cryptocurrencies.
文摘DCEP is the Chinese version of Central Bank Digital Currency(CBDC).It is the only legal digital currency in China and meets four conditions:(a)it is issued by the central bank;(b)it is digitized;(c)it is account and wallet based;(d)it is oriented towards the general public.As a retail central bank digital currency,it has three main technical features:a“tiered limit arrangement”(small-scale payments can be made anonymously while large-scale payments cannot),a“two-tier operating system”(as with the central bank-commercial bank traditional model),and a“dual offline payment system”(supporting both parties of the transaction).Compared with CBDCs in other countries,China’s DCEP has smaller economic impacts,more obscure strategic goals,and more scarce technical details.But its progress in testing is ahead of central banks of other countries.This article is based on public information and is intended to explain what DCEP is and why and how it was developed.It also offers suggestions for future research.
基金support from the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2020S1A5A8044620).
文摘Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.
文摘This research investigates the appropriateness of the linear specification of the market model for modeling and forecasting the cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods.Two extensions are offered to compare the performance of the linear specification of the market model(LMM),which allows for the measurement of the cryptocurrency price beta risk.The first is the generalized additive model,which permits flexibility in the rigid shape of the linearity of the LMM.The second is the time-varying linearity specification of the LMM(Tv-LMM),which is based on the state space model form via the Kalman filter,allowing for the measurement of the time-varying beta risk of the cryptocurrency price.The analysis is performed using daily data from both time periods on the top 10 cryptocurrencies by adjusted market capitalization,using the Crypto Currency Index 30(CCI30)as a market proxy and 1-day and 7-day forward predictions.Such a comparison of cryptocurrency prices has yet to be undertaken in the literature.The empirical findings favor the Tv-LMM,which outperforms the others in terms of modeling and forecasting performance.This result suggests that the relationship between each cryptocurrency price and the CCI30 index should be locally instead of globally linear,especially during the COVID-19 period.
文摘In this paper we present an application of fuzzy estimators method to price European call currency option. We make use of fuzzy estimators for the volatility of exchange rate which based on statistical data to obtain the fuzzy pattern of G-K model. A numerical example is presented to get the -level closed intervals of the European call currency option fuzzy price.
文摘The aim of the current research paper is to review what the Government of Egypt (GOE) has done to alleviate hardship conditions facing vulnerable low-income citizens, including its civil servants, during the implementation of the recent International Monetary Fund Economic Reform program. The main research questions are: What policies and initiatives has the GOE pursued post its currency devaluation in order to alleviate hardships on the most vulnerable? And to what extent are we now a more “socially equitable” nation? The paper provides a background about the 2016 currency devaluation decision, presents a conceptual framework explaining the relation between different economic ideologies and the impact on the vulnerable groups in society, elaborates on why we should seek social justice in Egypt, and then finally examines and assesses some of the government’s efforts in trying to alleviate hardships, including the Takaful and Karama Program, the Amman certificate, and the impact on the pay scale of government employees. Some of the recommendations made by the paper include: the need to apply true conditionality in the claimed “Conditional Cash Transfer Programs”, to re-consider government employees’ compensation, and to re-allocate national resources to what matters in a more transparent manner.
文摘The contagion aspect of the currency crisis is an important research issue today.In this paper, we set up a dynamic differential model of currency crisis cross contagions between two countries by expanding generalized logistics model, and analyze all kinds of possible equilibrium conditions. It is probably a new idea of studying currency crisis contagion mechanism.
文摘Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of America (USA), along with the member countries of the Euro Zone (European Monetary Union, or EMU). The main purpose is to know the divergence between public debt, average inflation ﹣0% in the graphs—in the main cities or regions of the first two, and compare them with the countries of the EMU. The period of 2001-2012 is chosen to be the years in which the Euro has been circulating among member countries of the Monetary Union (EMU). We find significant differences that allow us to determine the faults that the criteria of divergence on these variables had on the founding treaty of the European Monetary Union.
文摘Currently,the only central bank digital currencies(CBDC)in the world is Venezuela^currency^Petro.Nowadays,the IMF,BIS,and major countries have conducted a lot of research on CBDC.It's an urgent issue for the central bank to issue CBDC,determine and formulate the circulation of CBDC and the issuance speed,and supervise it.Therefore,establishing ARMA and VARs by sorting out literature,the paper uses the characteristics of CBDC—cash,and similarities with third-party payment in terms of payment to determine the circulation of CDBC by third-party payment users and currency in circulation.The model calculates and predicts the speed of circulation of digital currency.The issuance of CBDC will accelerate the circulation of money.In this regard,we will explore the impact of money supply on monetary policy and make relevant recommendations.
文摘This paper proposes a method based on Markov Logic Network (MLN) to determine the time order of entity attribute values. We use the characteristics of web sources’ currency, web sources inter-dependency and attribute data currency in a certain web source as predicates in MLN. We define five rules (new rules can be added) to infer the currency of different values provided by different sources. On one hand, this method considers currency problem based on entity attribute instead of the entire entity, which is critical to improve the qualityof data provided by Web Integration Systems; on the other hand, this method summarizes characteristics of web sources and web data based on carefully analysis. It is noteworthy that it is not complicate for the MLN model to incorporate new rules, which shows that the proposed method is extensible.
文摘As the global economy is recovering in a unpredictable road, some other threats exist in the possibility of a currency war,resulting in more pressure for China. The latest depreciation
文摘It's just one month after the Chinese Spring Festival. "Gong Xi Fa Cai!" is heard in every corner of life prior to and during Spring Festival in China when the Year of Ox sets in,heralding an auspicious arrival of Spring. Besides commonly-used greeting words of wising you a happy,healthy and prosperous new year,the "Gong Xi Fa Cai",literally meaning "congratulations on making money and wealth",is the best-echoed expression for new year greetings,and pleasingly evidenced by mascots of toy ox dressed in beautiful clothes with the Yuan(Chinese money) imprints and decorations that can be found in street stalls,department stores and shop malls. Yes,money is conspicuous in the traditional reveling rituals,and will the most likely be more conspicuous for the country and its textile economy as its value issue is reiterated in a tune of different expression.
文摘This study examines the portfolio diversification benefits of alternative currency trading in Bitcoin and foreign exchange markets.The following methods are applied for the analysis:the spillover index method of Diebold and Yilmaz(Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66,2012.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfor ecast.2011.02.006),the spillover asymmetry measures of Barunik et al.(J Int Money Finance 77:39–56,2017.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimon fin.2017.06.003),and the frequency connectedness method of Barunik and Křehlik(J Financ Econom 16(2):271–296,2018.https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfin ec/nby001).The findings identify the presence of low-level integration and asymmetric volatility spillover as well as a dominant role of short horizon spillover among Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs for six major trading currencies(US dollar,euro,Japanese yen,British pound sterling,Australian dollar,and Canadian dollar).Bitcoin is found to provide significant portfolio diversification benefits for alternative currency foreign exchange portfolios.Alternative currency Bitcoin trading in euro is found to provide the most significant portfolio diversification benefits for foreign exchange portfolios consisting of major trading currencies.The findings of the study regarding spillover dynamics and portfolio diversification capabilities of the Bitcoin market for foreign exchange markets of major trading currencies have significant implications for portfolio diversification and risk minimization.
基金the National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science of China(Grant No.21BJY206)。
文摘The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.
基金supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS)(Grant nos.15K03548,16H03638,16H03627 and 17KT0032).
文摘Due not only to a dominant role of the US dollar in regional trade and financial transactions but also to de facto US dollar pegged exchange rate policy,Asian countries cannot avoid exchange rate risks between their own currency and the US dollar.In recent years,however,the Chinese government has actively promoted the Renminbi(RMB)internationalisation especially in intermational trade.In December 2015,China introduced a new exchange rate index against a basket of 13 trade-weighted currencies,which can be considered a major turning point from the US dollar standard toward a more flexible currency basket system.However,the estimated implicit basket weights reveal that several Asian economies still tend to stabilise their currencies against the US dollar,while Malaysia and Singapore have stabilised their currencies against RMB in recent years.Since the internationalisation of local currencies and regional monetary arrangements are typically facilitated with each other,further progress of RMB internationalisation is expected to promote a leading role of China in establishing regional exchange rate policy coordination.
基金This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.75010005)the China Education Ministry’s Chang Jiang Scholars Program.We thank Carole Gao for her able assistance.
文摘We propose a new international monetary system based on carbon currency(the carbon standard)to tackle two pressing externalities in today’s global economic and political context:the dangerous and irreversible effects caused by unconstrained green-house gas emissions and the cost to the rest of the world as a result of the U.S.dollar being the dominated global currency and the U.S.Federal Reserve increasingly implementing monetary policies not aligned with the global common interest.We define carbon currency as standardized carbon-related securities backed up by the right of one unit of carbon emissions.It can be used as a new global reserve currency and functions as an international unit of account.Through the trading of carbon currency,efficient carbon prices are established.By incorporating the cost of carbon emissions into decision making,carbon pricing provides incentives for countries to pursue low-carbon growth,which helps achieve the net zero emissions global goal set under the 2015 Paris Agreement.Under the carbon standard,the external shocks to the international financial system would come from variations of carbon emissions rather than the U.S.monetary policies.As such,monetary authorities’commitment to maintaining stable exchange rates comes together with monetary policies aiming at pursuing low-carbon growth.The new system potentially poses a plausible solution to the classical Mundellian Trilemma because the objectives of maintaining fixed exchange rate and implementing monetary policy become one.Although several hurdles are constraining the launch of carbon currency immediately,the carbon standard poses a feasible international monetary system as the world-wide campaign to achieve carbon neutrality progresses.
