China has experienced a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years.The recent capital exodus to some extent reflects policy difficulties and obstacles that China’s authorities face ...China has experienced a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years.The recent capital exodus to some extent reflects policy difficulties and obstacles that China’s authorities face in managing economic reforms.In particular,China faces tough challenges in balancing the benefit/risk trade-off from capital account opening and attempting to introduce more flexibility to the currency.Moreover,the lack of policy clarity highlights policy inconsistencies and ambiguities among Chinese leaders in macroeconomic management,as more often than not,government policies seem to alternate between emphasizing reform and growth.This may cast doubt on the Chinese leadership’s commitment to reform,undermine confidence in the economy and cause further capital outflows that will have significant repercussions both for China as well as for the world.展开更多
This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, bet...This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, between 1978 and2012, the net capital flow from rural areas to urban areas through the fiscal and financial systems and the price scissors of industrial and agricultural goods amounted to RMB 26. 66 trillion （by 2012price level）. Second, prior to 1994, the outflow of rural capital continued accelerating; starting from the late 1990s, the net outflow of rural capital slowed down but the overall scale remained significant. Third, the contributions by the three capital flow channels （the fiscal system, financial institutions, and the price scissors of agricultural and industrial products） to the net outflow of rural capital varied greatly across different historical periods： prior to the establishment of the market economic system （1978-1993）, most of the rural capital left the countryside in the form of price scissors of agricultural and industrial goods; during the 15 years after the establishment of the market economic system in China （1994-2007）, rural capital flowed into cities mainly through the fiscal system; with the market-oriented reform of the rural financial systems in recent years （2008-2012）, financial institutions became a major channel for the extraction of rural capital. Based on our study, we believe that in the course of more than three decades of reform and opening up, China was in the stage of extracting rural capital and that the contemporary China should enter into a new stage of development by diverting resources to the countryside to support its development. Our recommendation is that the existing fiscal and financial policies be adjusted to boost fiscal spending on agriculture, farmers, and the countryside, and to establish an inclusive, modern rural financial system.展开更多
文摘China has experienced a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years.The recent capital exodus to some extent reflects policy difficulties and obstacles that China’s authorities face in managing economic reforms.In particular,China faces tough challenges in balancing the benefit/risk trade-off from capital account opening and attempting to introduce more flexibility to the currency.Moreover,the lack of policy clarity highlights policy inconsistencies and ambiguities among Chinese leaders in macroeconomic management,as more often than not,government policies seem to alternate between emphasizing reform and growth.This may cast doubt on the Chinese leadership’s commitment to reform,undermine confidence in the economy and cause further capital outflows that will have significant repercussions both for China as well as for the world.
基金supported by the key project of the National Social Sciences Fund:Study on the Synchronized Development of Institutional Innovation for Agricultural Modernization.Industrialization,IT Application.and Urbanization(Grant No.13AZD003)the soft science project of the Ministry of Agriculture for 2014:Study on the New Price Scissors of Urban and Rural Areas(Grant No.D201415)
文摘This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, between 1978 and2012, the net capital flow from rural areas to urban areas through the fiscal and financial systems and the price scissors of industrial and agricultural goods amounted to RMB 26. 66 trillion （by 2012price level）. Second, prior to 1994, the outflow of rural capital continued accelerating; starting from the late 1990s, the net outflow of rural capital slowed down but the overall scale remained significant. Third, the contributions by the three capital flow channels （the fiscal system, financial institutions, and the price scissors of agricultural and industrial products） to the net outflow of rural capital varied greatly across different historical periods： prior to the establishment of the market economic system （1978-1993）, most of the rural capital left the countryside in the form of price scissors of agricultural and industrial goods; during the 15 years after the establishment of the market economic system in China （1994-2007）, rural capital flowed into cities mainly through the fiscal system; with the market-oriented reform of the rural financial systems in recent years （2008-2012）, financial institutions became a major channel for the extraction of rural capital. Based on our study, we believe that in the course of more than three decades of reform and opening up, China was in the stage of extracting rural capital and that the contemporary China should enter into a new stage of development by diverting resources to the countryside to support its development. Our recommendation is that the existing fiscal and financial policies be adjusted to boost fiscal spending on agriculture, farmers, and the countryside, and to establish an inclusive, modern rural financial system.
