Summer precipitation patterns of Shandong Province are relatively independent with regard to the whole eastern China region.To study the rules and causes of precipitation variations,three main climate modes-on the ann...Summer precipitation patterns of Shandong Province are relatively independent with regard to the whole eastern China region.To study the rules and causes of precipitation variations,three main climate modes-on the annual,seasonal,and climatic intra-seasonal oscillation(CISO) scales-are extracted using a harmonic analysis method based on daily precipitation of Shandong during 1965-2009 and multi-year averaged pentad precipitation at 722 stations in China during 1971-2000.Among the three precipitation climate modes,the annual mode is closely related to the annual cycle of Earth-Atmosphere thermal system,which is characterized by the periodic dry and wet seasons.The seasonal mode reflects the monsoon effect on precipitation and the main flood season's contribution to annual precipitation variations.As an important climatic signal,the CISO mode is more evident during summer monsoon.The gradual modulations of the CISO mode,seasonal mode,and annual mode control the annual variation of precipitation.To study the relationship between precipitation climate modes and atmospheric circulations,an East Asian Westerly Jet Index(EAWJI) is defined in this paper.It is revealed that precipitation of Shandong is closely related to EAWJI in all climate modes.A wet or dry phase of each climate mode corresponds to a specific atmospheric circulation pattern.The phase of the annual mode is reverse to that of EAWJI.During the wet phase of the seasonal mode(weak phase of EAWJI),the atmospheric circulation in and around Shandong is characterized by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.A reversed atmospheric circulation exists for the dry phase(strong phase for EAWJI).In the summer wet phase of CISO mode(strong phase of EAWJI),Shandong is controlled by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.Again,the dry phase is corresponding to a reversed circulation structure.The methodology employed in this research,i.e.studying the precipitation climatic variations in terms of independent components of different temporal scales,provides a new approach for annual and seasonal precipitation prediction.展开更多
Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate loca...Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g.,MYR).Yet,large-scale climate modes(LSCMs)are relatively well represented in climate models.Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs,it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs.These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models.In this pilot study,it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs.The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature.The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature.The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed.The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.展开更多
Climate and forecast mode simulations with the regional climate model HIRlam-ECHAM（HIRHAM） are evaluated over a pan-Antarctic domain. The ability of the model to simulate temperature and wind profiles in the troposp...Climate and forecast mode simulations with the regional climate model HIRlam-ECHAM（HIRHAM） are evaluated over a pan-Antarctic domain. The ability of the model to simulate temperature and wind profiles in the troposphere is quantified by comparing its results with radiosonde data acquired from the Davis station for January and July 2007. Compared to the climate mode, the forecast mode was found to deliver improved results for temperature and wind simulations at the near surface and in the lower troposphere. The main remaining model bias found was the under-representation of low-level wind jets. Based on ensemble simulations, it is shown that a distinct internal variability is inherent in the climate mode simulations, and associated areas of reduced predictability over Antarctica are identified.展开更多
The spatial variation of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the North Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated using the EOF decomposition method.The first two main modes of SSTA are associated with Pacific...The spatial variation of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the North Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated using the EOF decomposition method.The first two main modes of SSTA are associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) mode and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO) mode,respectively.Moreover,the first mode(PDO) is switched to the second mode(NPGO),a dominant mode after mid-1980.The mechanism of the modes' transition is analyzed.As the two oceanic modes are forced by the Aleutian Low(AL) and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO) modes,the AR-1 model is further used to examine the possible effect and mechanism of AL and NPO in generating the PDO and NPGO.The results show that compared to the NPO,the AL plays a more important role in generating the NPGO mode since the 1970s.Likewise,both the AL and NPO affect the PDO mode since the 1980s.展开更多
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has great impacts on the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST).In fact,two major modes of the Indian Ocean SST namely the Indian Ocean Basin(IOB)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IO...The El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has great impacts on the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST).In fact,two major modes of the Indian Ocean SST namely the Indian Ocean Basin(IOB)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)modes,exerting strong influences on the Indian Ocean rim countries,are both influenced by the ENSO.Based on a combined linear regression method,this study quantifies the ENSO impacts on the IOB and the IOD during ENSO concurrent,developing,and decaying stages.After removing the ENSO impacts,the spring peak of the IOB disappears along with significant decrease in number of events,while the number of events is only slightly reduced and the autumn peak remains for the IOD.By isolating the ENSO impacts during each stage,this study reveals that the leading impacts of ENSO contribute to the IOD development,while the delayed impacts facilitate the IOD phase switch and prompt the IOB development.Besides,the decadal variations of ENSO impacts are various during each stage and over different regions.These imply that merely removing the concurrent ENSO impacts would not be sufficient to investigate intrinsic climate variability of the Indian Ocean,and the present method may be useful to study climate variabilities independent of ENSO.展开更多
The westerly winds and East Asian summer monsoon play a leading role in climate change of southwestern North America and eastern Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),respectively.Their convergence in arid and semi...The westerly winds and East Asian summer monsoon play a leading role in climate change of southwestern North America and eastern Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),respectively.Their convergence in arid and semi-arid regions of the Asian continent(AAC)makes the regional climate change more complicated on the millennial-scale.There are still limitations in applying paleoclimate records and climate simulations of characteristic periods to investigate climate change patterns since the LGM in this region.In this study,we adopt two indexes indicating effective moisture and rely on a continuous simulation,a time slice simulation,and numerous paleoclimate records to comprehensively investigate the climate change modes and their driving mechanisms since the LGM in AAC.Results demonstrate a millennial-scale climate differentiation phenomenon and three climate change modes possibly occurring in AAC since the LGM.The western AAC largely controlled by the westerly winds is featured as wet climates during the LGM but relatively dry climates during the mid-Holocene(MH),coinciding with the climate change mode in southwestern North America.Conversely,dry conditions during the LGM and relatively wet conditions during the MH are reflected in eastern AAC governed by the East Asian summer monsoon,which leans to the climate change mode in eastern Asia.If climate change in central AAC is forced by the interaction of two circulations,it expresses wet conditions in both the LGM and MH,tending to a combination of the southwestern North American and eastern Asian modes.Precipitation and evaporation exert different intensities in influencing three climate modes of different periods.Furthermore,we identify the significant driving effects of greenhouse gases and ice sheets on westerly-dominated zones of AAC,while orbit-driven insolation on monsoon-dominated zones of AAC.展开更多
基金National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2012CB955604)Science-Technology Development Plan Project of Shandong Province (2008GG10008001)Key Subject of Shandong Meteorological Bureau (2009sdqxz11)
文摘Summer precipitation patterns of Shandong Province are relatively independent with regard to the whole eastern China region.To study the rules and causes of precipitation variations,three main climate modes-on the annual,seasonal,and climatic intra-seasonal oscillation(CISO) scales-are extracted using a harmonic analysis method based on daily precipitation of Shandong during 1965-2009 and multi-year averaged pentad precipitation at 722 stations in China during 1971-2000.Among the three precipitation climate modes,the annual mode is closely related to the annual cycle of Earth-Atmosphere thermal system,which is characterized by the periodic dry and wet seasons.The seasonal mode reflects the monsoon effect on precipitation and the main flood season's contribution to annual precipitation variations.As an important climatic signal,the CISO mode is more evident during summer monsoon.The gradual modulations of the CISO mode,seasonal mode,and annual mode control the annual variation of precipitation.To study the relationship between precipitation climate modes and atmospheric circulations,an East Asian Westerly Jet Index(EAWJI) is defined in this paper.It is revealed that precipitation of Shandong is closely related to EAWJI in all climate modes.A wet or dry phase of each climate mode corresponds to a specific atmospheric circulation pattern.The phase of the annual mode is reverse to that of EAWJI.During the wet phase of the seasonal mode(weak phase of EAWJI),the atmospheric circulation in and around Shandong is characterized by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.A reversed atmospheric circulation exists for the dry phase(strong phase for EAWJI).In the summer wet phase of CISO mode(strong phase of EAWJI),Shandong is controlled by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.Again,the dry phase is corresponding to a reversed circulation structure.The methodology employed in this research,i.e.studying the precipitation climatic variations in terms of independent components of different temporal scales,provides a new approach for annual and seasonal precipitation prediction.
基金supported by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund。
文摘Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g.,MYR).Yet,large-scale climate modes(LSCMs)are relatively well represented in climate models.Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs,it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs.These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models.In this pilot study,it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs.The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature.The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature.The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed.The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40905048the German Bosch Foundation,and the program of basic research and operating of CAMS
文摘Climate and forecast mode simulations with the regional climate model HIRlam-ECHAM（HIRHAM） are evaluated over a pan-Antarctic domain. The ability of the model to simulate temperature and wind profiles in the troposphere is quantified by comparing its results with radiosonde data acquired from the Davis station for January and July 2007. Compared to the climate mode, the forecast mode was found to deliver improved results for temperature and wind simulations at the near surface and in the lower troposphere. The main remaining model bias found was the under-representation of low-level wind jets. Based on ensemble simulations, it is shown that a distinct internal variability is inherent in the climate mode simulations, and associated areas of reduced predictability over Antarctica are identified.
基金Basic Research Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (2007CB411800)
文摘The spatial variation of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the North Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated using the EOF decomposition method.The first two main modes of SSTA are associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) mode and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO) mode,respectively.Moreover,the first mode(PDO) is switched to the second mode(NPGO),a dominant mode after mid-1980.The mechanism of the modes' transition is analyzed.As the two oceanic modes are forced by the Aleutian Low(AL) and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO) modes,the AR-1 model is further used to examine the possible effect and mechanism of AL and NPO in generating the PDO and NPGO.The results show that compared to the NPO,the AL plays a more important role in generating the NPGO mode since the 1970s.Likewise,both the AL and NPO affect the PDO mode since the 1980s.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41830538 and 42090042the Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos 133244KYSB20190031,ZDRW-XH-2001902 and ISEE2018PY06the Program of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)under contract Nos GML2019ZD0303 and2019BT02H594。
文摘The El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has great impacts on the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST).In fact,two major modes of the Indian Ocean SST namely the Indian Ocean Basin(IOB)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)modes,exerting strong influences on the Indian Ocean rim countries,are both influenced by the ENSO.Based on a combined linear regression method,this study quantifies the ENSO impacts on the IOB and the IOD during ENSO concurrent,developing,and decaying stages.After removing the ENSO impacts,the spring peak of the IOB disappears along with significant decrease in number of events,while the number of events is only slightly reduced and the autumn peak remains for the IOD.By isolating the ENSO impacts during each stage,this study reveals that the leading impacts of ENSO contribute to the IOD development,while the delayed impacts facilitate the IOD phase switch and prompt the IOB development.Besides,the decadal variations of ENSO impacts are various during each stage and over different regions.These imply that merely removing the concurrent ENSO impacts would not be sufficient to investigate intrinsic climate variability of the Indian Ocean,and the present method may be useful to study climate variabilities independent of ENSO.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42077415,No.41822708The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP),No.2019QZKK0202+2 种基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2019YFC0507401The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA20100102The 111 Project,No.BP0618001。
文摘The westerly winds and East Asian summer monsoon play a leading role in climate change of southwestern North America and eastern Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),respectively.Their convergence in arid and semi-arid regions of the Asian continent(AAC)makes the regional climate change more complicated on the millennial-scale.There are still limitations in applying paleoclimate records and climate simulations of characteristic periods to investigate climate change patterns since the LGM in this region.In this study,we adopt two indexes indicating effective moisture and rely on a continuous simulation,a time slice simulation,and numerous paleoclimate records to comprehensively investigate the climate change modes and their driving mechanisms since the LGM in AAC.Results demonstrate a millennial-scale climate differentiation phenomenon and three climate change modes possibly occurring in AAC since the LGM.The western AAC largely controlled by the westerly winds is featured as wet climates during the LGM but relatively dry climates during the mid-Holocene(MH),coinciding with the climate change mode in southwestern North America.Conversely,dry conditions during the LGM and relatively wet conditions during the MH are reflected in eastern AAC governed by the East Asian summer monsoon,which leans to the climate change mode in eastern Asia.If climate change in central AAC is forced by the interaction of two circulations,it expresses wet conditions in both the LGM and MH,tending to a combination of the southwestern North American and eastern Asian modes.Precipitation and evaporation exert different intensities in influencing three climate modes of different periods.Furthermore,we identify the significant driving effects of greenhouse gases and ice sheets on westerly-dominated zones of AAC,while orbit-driven insolation on monsoon-dominated zones of AAC.
