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Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
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作者 XU Ziyue MA Kai +1 位作者 YUAN Xu HE Daming 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期294-310,共17页
Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role... Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers. 展开更多
关键词 climate change hydrologic response coupled model intercomparison project 6(cmip6) MIKE SHE(Système Hydrologique Europeén) Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin
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Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models
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作者 MENG Yali DUAN Keqin +5 位作者 SHANG Wei SHI Peihong LI Shuangshuang CHENG Ying CHEN Rong ZHANG Zhaopeng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第6期1095-1108,共14页
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by sp... The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions. 展开更多
关键词 cmip6(coupled model intercomparison project phase 6) global warming 1.50℃warming time 2.00℃warming time regional differences
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A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains
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作者 LIU Xinyu LI Xuemei +2 位作者 ZHANG Zhengrong ZHAO Kaixin LI Lanhai 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期195-219,共25页
Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan M... Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM. 展开更多
关键词 climate change coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(cmip6) global climate models(GCMs) shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios standardized precipitation index(SPI) Chinese Tianshan Mountains
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CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO
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作者 Yunlong LU Junqiao FENG Dunxin HU 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第2期439-453,共15页
The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relat... The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer. 展开更多
关键词 North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(cmip6)
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Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs 被引量:2
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作者 Adnan ABBAS Asher S BHATTI +5 位作者 Safi ULLAH Waheed ULLAH Muhammad WASEEM ZHAO Chengyi DOU Xin Gohar ALI 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第3期274-296,共23页
Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate... Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development. 展开更多
关键词 precipitation extremes extreme precipitation indices climate change coupled model intercomparison project 6(cmip6) Global Climate model(GCM) South Asia
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Global air-sea CO_(2) exchange fl ux since 1980s: results from CMIP6 Earth System Models 被引量:1
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作者 Baoxiao QU Jinming SONG +3 位作者 Xuegang LI Huamao YUAN Kun ZHANG Suqing XU 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第4期1417-1436,共20页
The ocean could profoundly modulate the ever-increasing atmospheric CO_(2) by air-sea CO_(2) exchange process,which is also able to cause signifi cant changes of physical and biogeochemical properties in return.In thi... The ocean could profoundly modulate the ever-increasing atmospheric CO_(2) by air-sea CO_(2) exchange process,which is also able to cause signifi cant changes of physical and biogeochemical properties in return.In this study,we assessed the long-term average and spatial-temporal variability of global air-sea CO_(2) exchange fl ux(F CO_(2))since 1980s basing on the results of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Earth System Models(ESMs).Our fi ndings indicate that the CMIP6 ESMs simulated global CO_(2) sink in recent three decades ranges from 1.80 to 2.24 Pg C/a,which is coincidence with the results of cotemporaneous observations.What’s more,the CMIP6 ESMs consistently show that the global oceanic CO_(2) sink has gradually intensifi ed since 1980s as well as the observations.This study confi rms the simulated F CO_(2) could reach agreements with the observations in the aspect of primary climatological characteristics,however,the simulation skills of CIMP6 ESMs in diverse open-sea biomes are unevenness.None of the 18 CMIP6 ESMs could reproduce the observed F CO_(2) increasement in the central-eastern tropical Pacifi c and the midlatitude Southern Ocean.Defi ciencies of some CMIP6 ESMs in reproducing the atmospheric pressure systems of the Southern Hemisphere and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)mode of the tropical Pacifi c are probably the major causes. 展开更多
关键词 air-sea CO_(2)fl ux coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(cmip6) Earth System model(ESM) long-term average spatial-temporal variability
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Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin,China
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作者 INGABIRE Romaine CHANG Yuru +3 位作者 LIU Xia CAO Bo UMUGWANEZA Adeline SHEN Yanjun 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期564-578,共15页
Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may le... Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios.This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management. 展开更多
关键词 RUNOFF climate change MIKE11-NAM model coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(cmip6) upper Daqinghe Basin China
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An assessment of the CMIP5 models in simulating the Argo geostrophic meridional transport in the North Pacifi c Ocean
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作者 LI Xiang YUAN Dongliang 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第5期1445-1463,共19页
Eleven climate system models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)were evaluated based on an assessment of their simulated meridional transports in comparison with the Sverdrup t... Eleven climate system models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)were evaluated based on an assessment of their simulated meridional transports in comparison with the Sverdrup transports.The analyses show that the simulated North Pacifi c Ocean circulation is essentially in Sverdrup balance in most of the 11 models while the Argo geostrophic meridional transports indicate signifi cant non-Sverdrup gyre circulation in the tropical North Pacifi c Ocean.The climate models overestimated the observed tropical and subtropical volume transports signifi cantly.The non-Sverdrup gyre circulation leads to non-Sverdrup heat and salt transports,the absence of which in the CMIP5 simulations suggests defi ciencies of the CMIP5 model dynamics in simulating the realistic meridional volume,heat,and salt transports of the ocean. 展开更多
关键词 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5)models Sverdrup balance meridional transport Argo geostrophic currents
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Future Drought Changes in China Projected by the CMIP6 Models:Contributions from Key Factors 被引量:2
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作者 Qingxin CHEN Tianbao ZHAO +3 位作者 Lijuan HUA Jinhua YU Yafang WANG Chuan XU 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第4期454-468,共15页
Model simulations show that drought may become more severe and widespread in the 21st century due to humaninduced global warming. However, the contributions from the key factors to the model-projected drought changes ... Model simulations show that drought may become more severe and widespread in the 21st century due to humaninduced global warming. However, the contributions from the key factors to the model-projected drought changes in China have not yet been examined in detail. We used the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with Penman–Monteith potential evapotranspiration(scPDSIpm) based on 10 model simulations selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6). We investigated the contributions from precipitation(P), near-surface air temperature and specific humidity [Δ(T + q)], net surface longwave radiation(LW), net surface shortwave radiation(SW), and wind speed(WS) to the future changes in scPDSIpm, including the long-term mean, drying area,probability distribution function(PDF), drought frequency, and drought duration based on the scPDSIpm over China.Our results show that model-projected drying mainly occurs over southern China, whereas the dry areas under drought conditions increase from 20% to about 23%/30% under the two scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP2-4.5/SSP5-8.5) from 1985 to 2100, despite large uncertainties in individual projections partly due to internal variability. Drought frequency is projected to increases by about 10%–54%(15%–88%) under the SSP2-4.5(SSP5-8.5) scenario by the late 21st century, along with increases in drought duration. These changes are accompanied by a decrease in the mean scPDSIpm and flattening of the PDFs. The changes in drying over southern China are mainly attributed to surface warming and the increased surface vapor pressure deficit(VPD), with small contributions from changes in the surface net radiation. The changes in wetting over northern China mostly result from increased precipitation along with a small wetting effect from the changes in wind speed. 展开更多
关键词 DROUGHT future projection key factors China coupled model intercomparison project phase 6
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基于CMIP6气候变化情景下南极小须鲸(Balaenoptera bonaerensis)在宇航员海栖息地变化分析 被引量:1
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作者 蔺诗颖 赵亮 +1 位作者 刘璐璐 冯建龙 《海洋与湖沼》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第2期387-398,共12页
南极小须鲸(Balaenopterabonaerensis)作为顶级捕食者,在南大洋生态系统中起着重要调节作用。目前对南极小须鲸的研究大多集中在捕食和季节性迁移上,在栖息地分布以及气候变化对栖息地影响方面研究亟待补充。基于MaxEnt模型和CMIP6的数... 南极小须鲸(Balaenopterabonaerensis)作为顶级捕食者,在南大洋生态系统中起着重要调节作用。目前对南极小须鲸的研究大多集中在捕食和季节性迁移上,在栖息地分布以及气候变化对栖息地影响方面研究亟待补充。基于MaxEnt模型和CMIP6的数据,分析了当前情形以及不同排放情景下,到21世纪中期和21世纪末期宇航员海南极小须鲸栖息地的分布和变化。研究结果表明,南极小须鲸主要分布在宇航员海的东部,当前的高度适生区占整个区域的13.96%。深度、海冰密集度和混合层深度最小值是南极小须鲸分布的主要影响因子,三者的累积贡献为60.5%。气候变化情景下南极小须鲸栖息地呈现缩小的趋势。高排放情景下南极小须鲸的栖息地面积减小更快,从21世纪中期到末期这个时期南极小须鲸的栖息地面积减小速率比从当前到21世纪中期快。到本世纪中期,所有情景下的宇航员海东部仍存在南极小须鲸的栖息地;到本世纪末,中排放情景和高排放情景下的宇航员海已不适合南极小须鲸生存,海冰密集度的减小是造成这一现象的主要原因。 展开更多
关键词 南极小须鲸 气候变化 宇航员海 栖息地 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(cmip6)
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长江流域旱涝急转演变特征及其社会经济暴露度 被引量:1
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作者 孟长青 董子娇 +2 位作者 王远坤 张余庆 钟德钰 《水力发电学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期34-49,共16页
旱涝急转是指干旱和洪水之间的快速转变,对农业生产和人类安全造成巨大威胁。本研究基于月尺度的旱涝急转量级指数,分析了长江流域历史和未来四种旱涝急转事件,并通过滑窗法构建了旱涝急转量级的时变函数,揭示了未来旱涝急转风险变化。... 旱涝急转是指干旱和洪水之间的快速转变,对农业生产和人类安全造成巨大威胁。本研究基于月尺度的旱涝急转量级指数,分析了长江流域历史和未来四种旱涝急转事件,并通过滑窗法构建了旱涝急转量级的时变函数,揭示了未来旱涝急转风险变化。同时,结合共享社会经济路径量化了人口和经济受旱涝急转风险变化影响的程度。结果显示,历史时期长江流域中下游旱涝急转事件频发,旱–涝和涝–旱事件每10年发生10~12次,而旱–涝–旱和涝–旱–涝事件每10年发生3~4次。未来旱–涝–旱和涝–旱–涝事件预计大幅增加,其中长江上游部分地区增长了约7倍。对于历史基准期50年一遇的旱涝急转事件,未来发生概率将增加5~10倍,给长江流域的人口和经济带来重大影响。 展开更多
关键词 旱涝急转 标准化降水蒸散指数 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 人口暴露 长江流域
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未来北极夏季陆面气温变化区域特征及其与北大西洋海面温度的关系
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作者 吴雨子 胡舒涵 +1 位作者 赵传湖 黄菲 《海洋气象学报》 2024年第1期65-75,共11页
未来变暖背景下北极气候变化特征研究具有重要意义,基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中对北极气候变化模拟能力较好的模式模拟结果,研究SSP2-4.5情景下21世纪北极2 m气温的时空... 未来变暖背景下北极气候变化特征研究具有重要意义,基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中对北极气候变化模拟能力较好的模式模拟结果,研究SSP2-4.5情景下21世纪北极2 m气温的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)极地陆地的欧亚大陆(Eurasia, EA)和北美-格陵兰(Greenland, GL)对全球变暖具有不同的响应。EA在21世纪中叶前变暖趋势显著,之后主要表现为年代际尺度的冷暖振荡;GL则始终保持增暖趋势。EA、GL分区气温均存在年际、年代际(10~20 a)尺度上的波动,GL分区还存在20~40 a的准周期变化。(2)前冬北大西洋涛动正位相会引起次年夏季北大西洋呈南北向“-、+、-”三极型海面温度异常,并通过影响大气环流导致EA分区气温正异常,这种影响主要体现在年代际尺度上。(3)北大西洋多年代际振荡为正异常时,北美至格陵兰位势高度偏高,GL分区增暖,并且这种影响在21世纪70年代后更重要;北太平洋北部的海面温度正异常对GL分区增温也有贡献。 展开更多
关键词 北极 2 m气温 国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(cmip6) 北大西洋 海面温度
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CMIP6模式对中国东部地区水循环的模拟能力评估 被引量:5
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作者 赵丹 张丽霞 周天军 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第3期557-572,共16页
本文基于观测和再分析资料,采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力,并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明,CMIP6模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发... 本文基于观测和再分析资料,采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力,并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明,CMIP6模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发的年平均气候态空间分布及年循环特征,与观测值的空间相关系数分别为0.92和0.87。较之观测,MME高估了华北地区降水(0.55 mm d^(−1)),低估了华南沿海地区降水(−0.3 mm d^(−1))。所有CMIP6模式均高估蒸发强度(偏差0.03~0.98 mm d^(−1)),使得模拟的降水与蒸发之差偏少。模式整体能够模拟出我国东部季风区降水再循环率及不同边界水汽来源的贡献率,但低估了由南边界进入季风区的水汽贡献,导致东亚季风区偏干。通过分析模式对影响水汽通量的两个气象要素(风速和大气比湿)的模拟能力,发现研究区南边界的风速大小决定了模式间水汽输送差异。南边界风速越大的模式,由南边界进入的水汽通量越大,模式模拟的降水越多。西北太平洋辐合带的东西位置是影响南边界南风速的重要系统之一,辐合带位置偏东的模式模拟的南风强度较弱,使得水汽输送偏弱、降水偏少;反之,南边界水汽输送偏强、降水偏多。本文通过评估最新一代CMIP6模式在东亚水循环方面的模拟性能,指出了当前气候模式在模拟西太平洋辐合带位置方面存在的偏差及其对东亚水循环的影响。 展开更多
关键词 cmip6(coupled model intercomparison project phase 6) 季风 水循环 降水再循环率 水汽输送
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嫩江流域水文干旱归因分析及未来演变规律 被引量:6
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作者 门宝辉 庞金凤 +1 位作者 张腾 蒋美彤 《水力发电学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第10期60-74,共15页
在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,嫩江流域水旱灾害频繁发生。基于嫩江流域1980—2013年石灰窑、同盟、江桥和大赉水文站实测径流数据,构建流域分布式水文模型和多时间尺度下标准径流干旱指数(SRI),采用Budyko假设耦合水文模拟法对尼尔基... 在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,嫩江流域水旱灾害频繁发生。基于嫩江流域1980—2013年石灰窑、同盟、江桥和大赉水文站实测径流数据,构建流域分布式水文模型和多时间尺度下标准径流干旱指数(SRI),采用Budyko假设耦合水文模拟法对尼尔基水库建成前后流域径流变化和水文干旱特征归因分析,并基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)探究流域未来情景下水文干旱演变规律。结果表明:年尺度下,人类活动为径流演变的主导因素,影响贡献率高达80%,上游至下游水文干旱特征整体呈加剧趋势,且水库上游主要受到气候变化影响,下游主要受到人类活动影响;未来情景下,SRI序列波动性增大且呈现干湿交替特征,干旱历时呈增加趋势,流域未来干旱风险增大。 展开更多
关键词 归因分析 水文干旱 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 嫩江流域
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共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下未来30年长江流域夏季降水预估 被引量:1
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作者 郑衍欣 李双林 何源 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第5期1405-1420,共16页
本文利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中22个全球气候模式试验数据,通过MR评分(Comprehensive Rating Metrics)方法进行评估,择优选取了GFDL-CM4、EC-Earth3、MIROC6等10个模式,使用这些模式在SSP245和SSP585两种共享社会经济路... 本文利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中22个全球气候模式试验数据,通过MR评分(Comprehensive Rating Metrics)方法进行评估,择优选取了GFDL-CM4、EC-Earth3、MIROC6等10个模式,使用这些模式在SSP245和SSP585两种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下的预估试验数据,对未来30年(2021~2050年)长江流域夏季降水,特别是极端降水事件的时空演变特征,进行了预估。结果显示,两种不同排放情景下,相对于1980~2010年的平均,流域总降水量(PRCPTOT)、降水强度(SDII)均呈现显著增加趋势,特别是在上游高原和中下游平原地区;降水频次(R1mm)上游减少,中下游增加,二者相抵导致了流域降水频次整体变化不明显;强降水量(R95p)增加约9.6%、16.5%(SSP245、SSP585),极端降水量(R99p)增加约10.2%、15.5%,最大5日降水量(RX5day)也为增长趋势;连续无降水日数(CDD)在整个流域呈现增多,特别是上游地区。两种排放情景相比较,高情景(SSP585)下的变化强度要比中低情景(SSP245)大。这些结果意味着,未来30年长江流域降水气候可能变得更为极端,不仅总降水量增加,暴雨、大暴雨易于出现,而且连续无雨日长度也增加,干旱变得更为频繁。特别地,中下游地区要警惕发生极端暴雨、极端洪涝的风险,而上游地区要警惕发生干旱、极端干旱的风险。 展开更多
关键词 长江流域 降水 预估 共享社会经济路径(SSPs) 国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(cmip6)
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Development of Climate and Earth System Models in China: Past Achievements and New CMIP6 Results 被引量:19
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作者 Tianjun ZHOU Ziming CHEN +21 位作者 Liwei ZOU Xiaolong CHEN Yongqiang YU Bin WANG Qing BAO Ying BAO Jian CAO Bian HE Shuai HU Lijuan LI Jian LI Yanluan LIN Libin MA Fangli QIAO Xinyao RONG Zhenya SONG Yanli TANG Bo WU Tongwen WU Xiaoge XIN He ZHANG Minghua ZHANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第1期1-19,共19页
The Earth–Climate System Model(ECSM)is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research,and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences,especially in the field of... The Earth–Climate System Model(ECSM)is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research,and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences,especially in the field of global change.The research and development(R&D)of ECSM in China began in the 1980 s and have achieved great progress.In China,ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,ministries,and universities.Following a brief review of the development history of Chinese ECSMs,this paper summarized the technical characteristics of nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assessed the basic performances of four Chinese models in simulating the global climate and the climate in East Asia.The projected changes of global precipitation and surface air temperature and the associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios were also discussed.Finally,combined with the international situation,from the perspective of further improvement,eight directions were proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs. 展开更多
关键词 Earth–Climate System model(ECSM) Chinese models coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(cmip6) model performance CLIMATE prediction and projectION OUTLOOK
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Uncertainty in Projection of Climate Extremes:A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 被引量:7
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作者 Shaobo ZHANG Jie CHEN 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第4期646-662,共17页
Climate projections by global climate models(GCMs)are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties.This study aims to compare the uncertainty in projection of precipitation and temperature extremes between C... Climate projections by global climate models(GCMs)are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties.This study aims to compare the uncertainty in projection of precipitation and temperature extremes between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)phase 5(CMIP5)and phase 6(CMIP6),using 24 GCMs forced by 3 emission scenarios in each phase of CMIP.In this study,the total uncertainty(T)of climate projections is decomposed into the greenhouse gas emission scenario uncertainty(S,mean inter-scenario variance of the signals over all the models),GCM uncertainty(M,mean inter-model variance of signals over all emission scenarios),and internal climate variability uncertainty(V,variance in noises over all models,emission scenarios,and projection lead times);namely,T=S+M+V.The results of analysis demonstrate that the magnitudes of S,M,and T present similarly increasing trends over the 21 st century.The magnitudes of S,M,V,and T in CMIP6 are 0.94-0.96,1.38-2.07,1.04-1.69,and 1.20-1.93 times as high as those in CMIP5.Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 exhibit similar spatial variation patterns of uncertainties and similar ranks of contributions from different sources of uncertainties.The uncertainty for precipitation is lower in midlatitudes and parts of the equatorial region,but higher in low latitudes and the polar region.The uncertainty for temperature is higher over land areas than oceans,and higher in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere.For precipitation,T is mainly determined by M and V in the early 21 st century,by M and S at the end of the 21 st century;and the turning point will appear in the 2070 s.For temperature,T is dominated by M in the early 21 st century,and by S at the end of the 21 st century,with the turning point occuring in the 2060 s.The relative contributions of S to T in CMIP6(12.5%-14.3%for precipitation and 31.6%-36.2%for temperature)are lower than those in CMIP5(15.1%-17.5%for precipitation and 38.6%-43.8%for temperature).By contrast,the relative contributions of M in CMIP6(50.6%-59.8%for precipitation and 59.4%-60.3%for temperature)are higher than those in CMIP5(47.5%-57.9%for precipitation and 51.7%-53.6%for temperature).The higher magnitude and relative contributions of M in CMIP6 indicate larger difference among projections of various GCMs.Therefore,more GCMs are needed to ensure the robustness of climate projections. 展开更多
关键词 climate projection uncertainty uncertainty contribution coupled model intercomparison project(CMIP)phase 5(CMIP5)and phase 6(cmip6) extreme precipitation and temperature
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Comparison of trends in the Hadley circulation between CMIP6 and CMIP5 被引量:3
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作者 Yan Xia Yongyun Hu Jiping Liu 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第19期1667-1674,M0004,共9页
There have been extensive studies on poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and the associated poleward shift of subtropical dry zones in the past decade.In the present study,we study the trends in the width and stren... There have been extensive studies on poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and the associated poleward shift of subtropical dry zones in the past decade.In the present study,we study the trends in the width and strength of the Hadley cells,using currently available simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6(CMIP6),and compare the trends with that in CMIP5 simulations.Our results show that the total annual-mean trend in the width of the Hadley cells is 0.13°±0.02°per decade over 1970–2014 in CMIP6 historical All-forcing simulations.It is almost the same as that in CMIP5.The trend in the strength of the Northern-Hemisphere(NH)cell shows much greater weakening in CMIP6 than in CMIP5,while the strength trend in the Southern-Hemisphere(SH)cell shows slight strengthening.Single-forcing simulations demonstrate that increasing greenhouse gases cause widening and weakening of both the NH and SH Hadley cells,while anthropogenic aerosols and stratospheric ozone changes cause weak strengthening trends in the SH cell.CMIP6 projection simulation results show that both the widening and weakening trends increase with radiative forcing. 展开更多
关键词 Hadley circulation Global warming increasing greenhouse gases Stratospheric ozone Anthropogenic aerosols coupled model intercomparison project phase-6(cmip6)
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Variation of Dust in Northern China and Its Reproduction in BCC-ESM1 since 1980
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作者 Yumeng ZHOU Tongwen WU +6 位作者 Jie ZHANG Yong ZHANG Yanwu ZHANG He ZHAO Weihua JIE Yang ZHOU Kalli FURTADO 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第5期617-631,共15页
In this paper,we explore the possible causes and mechanisms for the variation of dust in northern China from 1980to 2014 using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA-2)data... In this paper,we explore the possible causes and mechanisms for the variation of dust in northern China from 1980to 2014 using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA-2)data,observational data,and BCC-ESM1(Beijing Climate Center Earth System Model version 1)simulation data.Two important dust centers are identified in China:one in the Taklamakan Desert in southern Xinjiang Region and the other in the Badain Jaran Desert in western Inner Mongolia Plateau.Both centers display distinct seasonal variations,with high dust concentration in spring and summer and low in autumn and winter.BCC-ESM1 is able to generally capture the main spatial and temporal characteristics of dust in northern China.Both the MERRA-2 reanalysis data and BCCESM1 simulation data show a decreasing trend in spring dust,which is evident during 1980–2000 and 2001–2014.The analysis based on daily mean dust loads and wind fields from MERRA-2 and BCC-ESM1 indicates that dusty weather in North China may be mainly caused by transport of the dust,especially that from the central and western Inner Mongolia Plateau during the prior 0–2 days,through the westerly winds from the upstream“dust core”region(38°–45°N,90°–105°E).This is one of the important paths for dust to move into North China.The weakened westerly wind in the lower troposphere in this“dust core”region may be responsible for the reduction of spring dust in North China. 展开更多
关键词 dust aerosols coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(cmip6) earth system models
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Future Changes in the Impact of North Pacific Midlatitude Oceanic Frontal Intensity on the Wintertime Storm Track in CMIP5 Models 被引量:3
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作者 Yao YAO Zhong ZHONG +1 位作者 Xiu-Qun YANG Xiaogang HUANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第6期1199-1213,共15页
The storm track and oceanic front play an important role in the midlatitude air–sea interaction.In this study,future changes in the impact of the North Pacific midlatitude oceanic frontal intensity on the wintertime ... The storm track and oceanic front play an important role in the midlatitude air–sea interaction.In this study,future changes in the impact of the North Pacific midlatitude oceanic frontal intensity on the wintertime storm track are projected based on climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).The performance of 13 CMIP5 models is evaluated,and it is found that a majority of these models are capable of reproducing the northward intensification of the storm track in response to the strengthened oceanic front.The ensemble means of outputs from six best models under three Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)are compared with the results of the historical simulation,and future changes are projected.It is found that the impact of the oceanic frontal intensity on the storm track tends to get stronger and extends further westward in a warming climate,and the largest increase appears in the RCP8.5 run.Further analysis reveals that the stronger impact of the oceanic front on the storm track in the future may be partially attributed to the greater oceanic frontal impact on the near-surface baroclinicity,which is mainly related to the intensified oceanic frontal impact on the meridional potential temperature gradient under the climate change scenario.However,this process can hardly explain the increasing impact of the oceanic front on the upstream of the storm track. 展开更多
关键词 storm track midlatitude oceanic front climate change coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5)
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