This work (in two parts) will present a novel predictive modeling methodology aimed at obtaining “best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties” for the first four moments (mean values, covariance, skewness and k...This work (in two parts) will present a novel predictive modeling methodology aimed at obtaining “best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties” for the first four moments (mean values, covariance, skewness and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters, by combining fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. Underlying the construction of this fourth-order predictive modeling methodology is the “maximum entropy principle” which is initially used to obtain a novel closed-form expression of the (moments-constrained) fourth-order Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) probability distribution constructed from the first four moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis), which are assumed to be known, of an otherwise unknown distribution of a high-dimensional multivariate uncertain quantity of interest. This fourth-order MaxEnt distribution provides optimal compatibility of the available information while simultaneously ensuring minimal spurious information content, yielding an estimate of a probability density with the highest uncertainty among all densities satisfying the known moment constraints. Since this novel generic fourth-order MaxEnt distribution is of interest in its own right for applications in addition to predictive modeling, its construction is presented separately, in this first part of a two-part work. The fourth-order predictive modeling methodology that will be constructed by particularizing this generic fourth-order MaxEnt distribution will be presented in the accompanying work (Part-2).展开更多
This work presents a comprehensive fourth-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology that uses the MaxEnt principle to incorporate fourth-order moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis) of model parameters, com...This work presents a comprehensive fourth-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology that uses the MaxEnt principle to incorporate fourth-order moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis) of model parameters, computed and measured model responses, as well as fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. This new methodology is designated by the acronym 4<sup>th</sup>-BERRU-PM, which stands for “fourth-order best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties.” The results predicted by the 4<sup>th</sup>-BERRU-PM incorporates, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizes the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures.展开更多
This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle for obtaining best-estimate mean values and correlations for model responses and par...This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle for obtaining best-estimate mean values and correlations for model responses and parameters. This methodology is designated by the acronym 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMP, where the attribute “2<sup>nd</sup>” indicates that this methodology incorporates second- order uncertainties (means and covariances) and second (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. The acronym BERRU stands for “Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties” and the last letter (“P”) in the acronym indicates “probabilistic,” referring to the MaxEnt probabilistic inclusion of the computational model responses. This is in contradistinction to the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodology, which deterministically combines the computed model responses with the experimental information, as presented in the accompanying work (Part I). Although both the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMP and the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodologies yield expressions that include second (and higher) order sensitivities of responses to model parameters, the respective expressions for the predicted responses, for the calibrated predicted parameters and for their predicted uncertainties (covariances), are not identical to each other. Nevertheless, the results predicted by both the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMP and the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodologies encompass, as particular cases, the results produced by the extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures, which rely on the minimization, in a least-square sense, of a user-defined functional meant to represent the discrepancies between measured and computed model responses.展开更多
This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology designated by the acronym 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD. The attribute “2<sup>nd</sup>” indicates that this met...This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology designated by the acronym 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD. The attribute “2<sup>nd</sup>” indicates that this methodology incorporates second-order uncertainties (means and covariances) and second-order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. The acronym BERRU stands for “Best- Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties” and the last letter (“D”) in the acronym indicates “deterministic,” referring to the deterministic inclusion of the computational model responses. The 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodology is fundamentally based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle. This principle is in contradistinction to the fundamental principle that underlies the extant data assimilation and/or adjustment procedures which minimize in a least-square sense a subjective user-defined functional which is meant to represent the discrepancies between measured and computed model responses. It is shown that the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodology generalizes and extends current data assimilation and/or data adjustment procedures while overcoming the fundamental limitations of these procedures. In the accompanying work (Part II), the alternative framework for developing the “second- order MaxEnt predictive modelling methodology” is presented by incorporating probabilistically (as opposed to “deterministically”) the computed model responses.展开更多
In the information era,the core business and confidential information of enterprises/organizations is stored in information systems.However,certain malicious inside network users exist hidden inside the organization;t...In the information era,the core business and confidential information of enterprises/organizations is stored in information systems.However,certain malicious inside network users exist hidden inside the organization;these users intentionally or unintentionally misuse the privileges of the organization to obtain sensitive information from the company.The existing approaches on insider threat detection mostly focus on monitoring,detecting,and preventing any malicious behavior generated by users within an organization’s system while ignoring the imbalanced ground-truth insider threat data impact on security.To this end,to be able to detect insider threats more effectively,a data processing tool was developed to process the detected user activity to generate information-use events,and formulated a Data Adjustment(DA)strategy to adjust the weight of the minority and majority samples.Then,an efficient ensemble strategy was utilized,which applied the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)model combined with the DA strategy to detect anomalous behavior.The CERT dataset was used for an insider threat to evaluate our approach,which was a real-world dataset with artificially injected insider threat events.The results demonstrated that the proposed approach can effectively detect insider threats,with an accuracy rate of 99.51%and an average recall rate of 98.16%.Compared with other classifiers,the detection performance is improved by 8.76%.展开更多
The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that a calibration curve can be obtained that can be used for any infiltration test, with the double ring method, as well as an equation that helps speed up data processi...The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that a calibration curve can be obtained that can be used for any infiltration test, with the double ring method, as well as an equation that helps speed up data processing. The experimentation was carried out in eight points in Nicaragua, of which five were distributed in Managua and three in Rivas-Nandaime. These results can be used for purposes of other studies of interest. As a result, a calibration curve is obtained, and an expression equal to is deduced, which will be the equation to determine the average infiltration of a field test occupying the double ring, for a total of 7 hours. And it is from the result that the texture of the soil can be determined by means of the indicator table. The basic methodology allowed analyzing the data since they are obtained, processed and analyzed, resulting in the calibration curve for infiltration tests. Finally, an equation was determined from the averages of the processed data, resulting in a correlation of 0.9976, above 0.5, which means it is very high and reliable.展开更多
文摘This work (in two parts) will present a novel predictive modeling methodology aimed at obtaining “best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties” for the first four moments (mean values, covariance, skewness and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters, by combining fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. Underlying the construction of this fourth-order predictive modeling methodology is the “maximum entropy principle” which is initially used to obtain a novel closed-form expression of the (moments-constrained) fourth-order Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) probability distribution constructed from the first four moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis), which are assumed to be known, of an otherwise unknown distribution of a high-dimensional multivariate uncertain quantity of interest. This fourth-order MaxEnt distribution provides optimal compatibility of the available information while simultaneously ensuring minimal spurious information content, yielding an estimate of a probability density with the highest uncertainty among all densities satisfying the known moment constraints. Since this novel generic fourth-order MaxEnt distribution is of interest in its own right for applications in addition to predictive modeling, its construction is presented separately, in this first part of a two-part work. The fourth-order predictive modeling methodology that will be constructed by particularizing this generic fourth-order MaxEnt distribution will be presented in the accompanying work (Part-2).
文摘This work presents a comprehensive fourth-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology that uses the MaxEnt principle to incorporate fourth-order moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis) of model parameters, computed and measured model responses, as well as fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. This new methodology is designated by the acronym 4<sup>th</sup>-BERRU-PM, which stands for “fourth-order best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties.” The results predicted by the 4<sup>th</sup>-BERRU-PM incorporates, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizes the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures.
文摘This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle for obtaining best-estimate mean values and correlations for model responses and parameters. This methodology is designated by the acronym 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMP, where the attribute “2<sup>nd</sup>” indicates that this methodology incorporates second- order uncertainties (means and covariances) and second (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. The acronym BERRU stands for “Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties” and the last letter (“P”) in the acronym indicates “probabilistic,” referring to the MaxEnt probabilistic inclusion of the computational model responses. This is in contradistinction to the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodology, which deterministically combines the computed model responses with the experimental information, as presented in the accompanying work (Part I). Although both the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMP and the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodologies yield expressions that include second (and higher) order sensitivities of responses to model parameters, the respective expressions for the predicted responses, for the calibrated predicted parameters and for their predicted uncertainties (covariances), are not identical to each other. Nevertheless, the results predicted by both the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMP and the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodologies encompass, as particular cases, the results produced by the extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures, which rely on the minimization, in a least-square sense, of a user-defined functional meant to represent the discrepancies between measured and computed model responses.
文摘This work presents a comprehensive second-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology designated by the acronym 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD. The attribute “2<sup>nd</sup>” indicates that this methodology incorporates second-order uncertainties (means and covariances) and second-order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. The acronym BERRU stands for “Best- Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties” and the last letter (“D”) in the acronym indicates “deterministic,” referring to the deterministic inclusion of the computational model responses. The 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodology is fundamentally based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle. This principle is in contradistinction to the fundamental principle that underlies the extant data assimilation and/or adjustment procedures which minimize in a least-square sense a subjective user-defined functional which is meant to represent the discrepancies between measured and computed model responses. It is shown that the 2<sup>nd</sup>-BERRU-PMD methodology generalizes and extends current data assimilation and/or data adjustment procedures while overcoming the fundamental limitations of these procedures. In the accompanying work (Part II), the alternative framework for developing the “second- order MaxEnt predictive modelling methodology” is presented by incorporating probabilistically (as opposed to “deterministically”) the computed model responses.
基金This work was financially supported by“the National Key R&D Program of China”(No.2018YFB0803602)exploration and practice on the education mode for engineering students based on technology,literature and art interdisciplinary integration with the Internet+background(No.022150118004/001)。
文摘In the information era,the core business and confidential information of enterprises/organizations is stored in information systems.However,certain malicious inside network users exist hidden inside the organization;these users intentionally or unintentionally misuse the privileges of the organization to obtain sensitive information from the company.The existing approaches on insider threat detection mostly focus on monitoring,detecting,and preventing any malicious behavior generated by users within an organization’s system while ignoring the imbalanced ground-truth insider threat data impact on security.To this end,to be able to detect insider threats more effectively,a data processing tool was developed to process the detected user activity to generate information-use events,and formulated a Data Adjustment(DA)strategy to adjust the weight of the minority and majority samples.Then,an efficient ensemble strategy was utilized,which applied the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)model combined with the DA strategy to detect anomalous behavior.The CERT dataset was used for an insider threat to evaluate our approach,which was a real-world dataset with artificially injected insider threat events.The results demonstrated that the proposed approach can effectively detect insider threats,with an accuracy rate of 99.51%and an average recall rate of 98.16%.Compared with other classifiers,the detection performance is improved by 8.76%.
文摘The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that a calibration curve can be obtained that can be used for any infiltration test, with the double ring method, as well as an equation that helps speed up data processing. The experimentation was carried out in eight points in Nicaragua, of which five were distributed in Managua and three in Rivas-Nandaime. These results can be used for purposes of other studies of interest. As a result, a calibration curve is obtained, and an expression equal to is deduced, which will be the equation to determine the average infiltration of a field test occupying the double ring, for a total of 7 hours. And it is from the result that the texture of the soil can be determined by means of the indicator table. The basic methodology allowed analyzing the data since they are obtained, processed and analyzed, resulting in the calibration curve for infiltration tests. Finally, an equation was determined from the averages of the processed data, resulting in a correlation of 0.9976, above 0.5, which means it is very high and reliable.
