To provide base for adjusting the sowing date,achieving the yield potential of wheat cultivars with different growth characteristics,and improving the utilization rate of natural resource in the North China Plain （NC...To provide base for adjusting the sowing date,achieving the yield potential of wheat cultivars with different growth characteristics,and improving the utilization rate of natural resource in the North China Plain （NCP）,a 4-yr field experiment of growing degree-days （GDD） before winter （realized through different sowing dates） with three wheat （Triticum aestivum L.） cultivars of each type of semi-winterness and weak springness was carried out at 20 test experimental sites （32°4’N36°1’N） of Henan Province in the NCP.The results showed that：（i） yield of semi-winterness wheat was significantly higher than weak springness wheat （P〈0.01）;（ii） there was a quadratic regression between the yield and GDD before winter.According to the regression equation,the optimum GDD range with high yield of semi-winterness and weak springness wheats was 750-770 and 570-590°C d,respectively;（iii） under the optimum GDD condition,the foliar age on the main stem of semi-winterness and weak springness wheats was 7.67-7.91 and 6.36-6.86 leaves,respectively,calculated by the linear regression equation between foliar age and GDD before winter;（iv） both semi-winterness and weak springness wheats were in the double ridge stage of spike differentiation under the condition of the optimum GDD range,and at this time,the foliar age on the main stem of semi-winterness and weak springness wheats was about 7.80 and 6.07 leaves,respectively,which was consistent with the results calculated by the liner regression equation.Therefore,we could consider that the sowing date is appropriate if the foliar age is about 7.8 and 6.3 leaves for semi-winterness and weak springness wheats,respectively.According to the results of this study,choosing semi-winterness wheat and planting 710 d earlier would improve yield and natural resource utilization in NCP.展开更多
The degree-day model is one important method to estimate glacier melt, which is based on the specific relationship between glacial melting and the sum of daily mean temperatures above the melting point. According to t...The degree-day model is one important method to estimate glacier melt, which is based on the specific relationship between glacial melting and the sum of daily mean temperatures above the melting point. According to the observation data on the Koxkar Glacier(KG) from 2005 to 2010, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of degree-day factors(DDF) and its influential factors. The results indicate that the average value of DDF was 7.2~10.4 mm/(°C·d) on the KG from 2005 to 2010. It showed a decreasing trend between 3,700 m and 4,200 m, and the deceasing trend was more obvious in the upper part of the KG. On a spatial scale, the DDF increased evidently with increasing altitude. The DDF ranged from3.6 to 9.3 mm/(°C·d) at 3,700 m a.s.l., with the average value of 9.3 mm/(°C·d). It varied from 6.9 to 13.0 mm/(°C·d) at4,000 m a.s.l., with the average value of 10.2 mm/(°C·d). During the period of ablation, the fluctuation of DDF was not significant at the lower altitude(3,700 m a.s.l.), but it decreased at the higher altitudes(4,000 m a.s.l. and 4,200 m a.s.l.).The debris changes the transmission of heat, which accelerates the melting of a glacier; and the DDF showed high value.This paper will provide the reference for temporal–spatial parameterization schemes of DDF on Tuomuer glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains.展开更多
The extensive debris that covers glaciers in the ablation zone of the Himalayan region plays an important part in regulating ablation rates and water availability for the downstream region. The melt rate of ice is det...The extensive debris that covers glaciers in the ablation zone of the Himalayan region plays an important part in regulating ablation rates and water availability for the downstream region. The melt rate of ice is determined by the amount of heat conducted through debris material lying over the ice. This study presents the vertical temperature gradients, thermal properties in terms of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity, and positive degree-day factors for the debris-covered portion of Lirung Glacier in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalaya using field-based measurements from three different seasons.Field measurements include debris temperatures at different debris thicknesses, air temperature, and ice melt during the monsoon(2013), winter(2013), and pre-monsoon(2014) seasons. We used a thermal equation to estimate thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity, and degree-day factors(DDF) were calculated from cumulative positive temperature and ice melt of the measurement period. Our analysis of debris temperature profiles at different depths of debris show the daily linear gradients of-20.81 °C/m, 4.05 °C/m, and-7.79 °C/m in the monsoon, winter, and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The values of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity in the monsoon season were 10 times greater than in the winter season. The large difference in these values is attributed to surface temperature and moisture content within the debris. Similarly, we found higher values of DDFs at thinner debris for the pre-monsoon season than in the monsoon season although we observed less melting during the pre-monsoon season. This is attributed to higher cumulative temperature during the monsoon season than in the pre-monsoon season. Our study advances our understanding of heat conductivity through debris material in different seasons, which supports estimating ice melt and discharge from glacierized river basins with debris-covered glaciers in the Himalayan region.展开更多
Glacier mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation at the glacier surface, is the direct reflection of the local climate regime. Under global warming, the simulation of glacier mass balance at the ...Glacier mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation at the glacier surface, is the direct reflection of the local climate regime. Under global warming, the simulation of glacier mass balance at the regional scale has attracted increasing interests. This study selects Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as the testbed for examining the transferability in space and time of two commonly used glacier mass balance simulation models: i.e., the Degree-Day Model(DDM) and the simplified Energy Balance Model(s EBM). Four experiments were carried out for assessing both models’ temporal and spatial transferability. The results show that the spatial transferability of both the DDM and s EBM is strong, whereas the temporal transferability of the DDM is relatively weak. For all four experiments, the overall simulation effect of the s EBM is better than that of the DDM. At the zone around Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), the DDM performed better than the s EBM.Also, the accuracy of parameters, including the lapse rate of air temperature and vertical gradient of precipitation at the glacier surface, is of great significance for improving the spatial transferability of both models.展开更多
The aim of the research was to connect two methods of the chemical control. The first chemical treatments were applied according to the signalling method. The second method was applied according to the phonological cr...The aim of the research was to connect two methods of the chemical control. The first chemical treatments were applied according to the signalling method. The second method was applied according to the phonological criterion i.e., on the basis of the values of effective temperatures sums or heat sums for cutworms. The studies on cutworms infesting sugar beet crops were carried out in the years 2005-2008. The observation performed during the moth flights from May to September included two species, turnip moth （Agrotis segetum Den. ＆ Schiff.） and heart-and-dart moth （A. exclamationis L.）. The dynamics of moth flights was recorded in reference to readings of climatic conditions registered with the field meteorological stations set up near the light traps. Observations on cutworm occurrence during the vegetation season were done every 5-7 days. Moreover, additional studies were conducted under control conditions in the growth chambers at three programmed temperatures （17°C, 20 °C, 24 °C） and relative humidity （50%-70%）. Based on the results the values for the heat sum of 501.1 °C and effective temperatures sum of 230.0 °C were determined for the developmental stages of cutworm. On the base of the results obtained it can be stated that the improved method of short-term forecasting can be an alternative solution in the integrated protection management against pest.展开更多
Linear regression analysis is one the most common methods for weather-normalizing energy data,where energy versus degree-days is plotted,quantifying the impacts of outside temperature on buildings’energy use.However,...Linear regression analysis is one the most common methods for weather-normalizing energy data,where energy versus degree-days is plotted,quantifying the impacts of outside temperature on buildings’energy use.However,this approach solely con-siders dry-bulb temperature,while other climate variables are ignored.In addition,depending on buildings’internal loads,weather impact can be less influential,making the linear regression method not applicable for energy data normalization in inter-nally driven buildings(such as research laboratory buildings,healthcare facilities,etc.).In this study,several existing buildings from different categories,all located on the University of Massachusetts Amherst campus and exposed to the same weather conditions in a heating-dominated climate,were analyzed.For all cases,regression of monthly steam use on heating degree-days and floor-area normalized steam data were used,investigating applicability of the former when the latter changes.It was found that internal loads can skew steam consumption,depending on the build-ing functionality,making the effect of degree-days negligible.For laboratory-type buildings,besides heating and domestic hot water production,steam is also used for scientific experiments.Here,daily occupancy percentage,even during weekends and holidays,was higher than that of other buildings,indicating the intensity of scientific experiments performed.This significantly impacted steam consumption,resulting in higher floor-area-normalized steam usage.In these cases,steam use did not provide an outstanding correlation to heating degree-days.Whereas,for cases with other func-tionality-types and lower floor-area normalized steam,coefficients of determination in regressions were high.This study concludes that even for buildings located in the same climate,depending on how building functionality and occupancy schedule influ-ence floor-area normalized steam use,multivariate linear regression can provide more accurate analysis,rather than simple linear regression of steam on heating degree-days.展开更多
Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this s...Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this study,based on 36 Landsat images,we extracted the glacier boundaries in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 using eCognition combined with band operation,GIS(geographic information system)spatial overlay techniques,and manual visual interpretation.We further analyzed the distribution and variation characteristics of glacier area,and simulated glacial runoff using a distributed degree-day model to explore the regulation of runoff recharge.The results showed that glacier area in the Manas River Basin as a whole showed a downward trend over the past 21 a,with a decrease of 10.86%and an average change rate of–0.54%/a.With the increase in glacier scale,the number of smaller glaciers decreased exponentially,and the number and area of larger glaciers were relatively stable.Glacier area showed a normal distribution trend of increasing first and then decreasing with elevation.About 97.92%of glaciers were distributed at 3700–4800 m,and 48.11%of glaciers were observed on the northern and northeastern slopes.The retreat rate of glaciers was the fastest(68.82%)at elevations below 3800 m.There was a clear rise in elevation at the end of glaciers.Glaciers at different slope directions showed a rapid melting trend from the western slope to the southern slope then to the northern slope.Glacial runoff in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend in the past 21 a,with an increase rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)/a.The average annual glacial runoff was 4.80×10^(8) m^(3),of which 33.31%was distributed in the ablation season(June–September).The average annual contribution rate of glacial meltwater to river runoff was 35.40%,and glacial runoff accounted for 45.37%of the total runoff during the ablation season.In addition,precipitation and glacial runoff had complementary regulation patterns for river runoff.The findings can provide a scientific basis for water resource management in the Manas River Basin and other similar arid inland river basins.展开更多
The degree-day factor （DDF） is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the varia- tions in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the ...The degree-day factor （DDF） is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the varia- tions in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Uriimqi （-~O）~Z~=） River in China was selected, and the estimated DDF by stakes-observed mass balance and meteorological data from 1983-2006 was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of DDF and its influencing factors, such as climate condition, surface fea- ture, and topography. Then, the ablations from the 1980s to 2000s were estimated using the degree-day modei, and the ablation change from the 1980s to 2000s was divided into the changes caused by climate change and by the ice-surface feature. The following results were obtained： （1） The annual change in DDF for snow was not obvious, whereas that for ice increased, and the increasing trend on the lower glacier was more significant than that on the upper glacier because of decreased albedo caused by vari- ations in ice-surface feature; （2） The DDF for ice clearly decreased with altitude by approximately 0.046 and 0.043 mm.＇C-l-d-Lm-1 on the east and west branches, respectively, and the DDF of the west branch was obviously larger than that of the east branch in the same altitude belt; （3） the changes in mass balance in the summers from the 1980s to 2000s were -391 and -467 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. Among the total changes, the components directly caused by climate change were -193 and -198 mm, whereas those indirectly caused by ice-surface feature change were -198 and -269 mm on the east and west branches, respectively.展开更多
To improve the prediction accuracy of heating demand, an appropriate base temperature should be estimated before using the heating degree-days (HDD) approach. This study collected the measured data for gas consumption...To improve the prediction accuracy of heating demand, an appropriate base temperature should be estimated before using the heating degree-days (HDD) approach. This study collected the measured data for gas consumption at half-hourly resolution and the building physical characteristics from 89 educational buildings over four years. To determine the base temperature, in addition to the ambient temperature, more detailed independent variables, i.e. solar insolation, relative humidity, wind speed, and one-day ahead residual temperature, were incorporated into a three-parameter change-point multi-variable regression (3PH-MVR) for heating. The mean base temperature using the 3PH-MVR approach was about 0.4℃ lower than the results from the 3PH method only. The relationships between base temperature and annual HDD (based on 15.5℃), building location, and mean daily solar insolation were evaluated. It is found that the annual HDD and the daily insolation had clear impacts on base temperature, while there was a plausible relationship between base temperature and building location. Compared with traditional approach, the proposed 3PH-MVR method considers multiple weather parameters and determines a more robust base temperature, thus improving the prediction accuracy of HDD with higher average R2 value at 0.86 than that of univariate regression (0.82).展开更多
Background:Accumulated degree-days(ADD)refers to the temperature value and time within a certain period.More and more attention has been paid to the ADD in the study of postmortem interval(PMI)estimation.Aim and Objec...Background:Accumulated degree-days(ADD)refers to the temperature value and time within a certain period.More and more attention has been paid to the ADD in the study of postmortem interval(PMI)estimation.Aim and Objective:This study is to confirm whether ADD is applicable in China.Materials and Methods:We collected meteorological data of 10 different regions in China for 12 months,analyzed the distribution characteristics of ADD in different regions at different time periods,and tested the two ADD calculation methods(accumulated hourly temperature and accumulated daily average temperature),in an attempt to establish a more precise calculation method of ADD.Results:The results show that when the yearly or monthly effective temperature data is taken as the research object,the law of daily ADD mean value gradually decreases from south to north,and the average value of accumulated hourly temperature at each region is larger than the average value of accumulated daily average temperature(the difference was significant).In addition,in different periods of each day,ADD obtained at different regions is different,and the variation of its specific gravity also has a north-south difference.We take the daily average temperature as the independent variable and accumulated hourly temperature as the linear equation fitted by the dependent variable,showing a good linear relationship(0.992<R2<0.999).At the same time,we also identify that extra caution should be exercised when using ADD in some special regions(such as Lhasa)or during the cold season of some regions.It may be unrealistic to attempt divide daily ADD into equal parts and accurately estimate PMI to a certain hour on the day of the crime.However,accurate estimation of PMI can be improved by dividing ADD on the day of the crime according to proportion of different periods and checking the time period of the final ADD value.Conclusion:At present,the study results on ADD need to be further developed,our study provides a preliminary research basis for the future establishment of an unified,simple,accurate,and suitable for the ADD model in China.展开更多
Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the three major food crops and an important source of carbohydrates for maintaining food security around the world.Plant height (H),stem diameter (SD),leaf area index (LAI) and dry matter...Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the three major food crops and an important source of carbohydrates for maintaining food security around the world.Plant height (H),stem diameter (SD),leaf area index (LAI) and dry matter (DM) are important growth parameters that influence maize production.However,the combined effect of temperature and light on maize growth is rarely considered in crop growth models.Ten maize growth models based on the modified logistic growth equation (Mlog) and the Mitscherlich growth equation (Mit) were proposed to simulate the H,SD,LAI and DM of maize under different mulching practices based on experimental data from 2015–2018.Either the accumulative growing degree-days (AGDD),helio thermal units (HTU),photothermal units (PTU) or photoperiod thermal units (PPTU,first proposed here) was used as a single driving factor in the models;or AGDD was combined with either accumulative actual solar hours (ASS),accumulative photoperiod response (APR,first proposed here) or accumulative maximum possible sunshine hours (ADL) as the dual driving factors in the models.The model performances were evaluated using seven statistical indicators and a global performance index.The results showed that the three mulching practices significantly increased the maize growth rates and the maximum values of the growth curves compared with non-mulching.Among the four single factor-driven models,the overall performance of the Mlog_(PTU)Model was the best,followed by the Mlog_(AGDD)Model.The Mlog_(PPTU)Model was better than the Mlog_(AGDD)Model in simulating SD and LAI.Among the 10 models,the overall performance of the Mlog_(AGDD–APR)Model was the best,followed by the Mlog_(AGDD–ASS)Model.Specifically,the Mlog_(AGDD–APR)Model performed the best in simulating H and LAI,while the Mlog_(AGDD–ADL)and Mlog_(AGDD–ASS)models performed the best in simulating SD and DM,respectively.In conclusion,the modified logistic growth equations with AGDD and either APR,ASS or ADL as the dual driving factors outperformed the commonly used modified logistic growth model with AGDD as a single driving factor in simulating maize growth.展开更多
Based on the daily meteorological data with preliminary quality-control from 94 meteorological stations in North China during 1961 -2009, the impact of climate change on energy consumption in North China was analyzed ...Based on the daily meteorological data with preliminary quality-control from 94 meteorological stations in North China during 1961 -2009, the impact of climate change on energy consumption in North China was analyzed by calculating heating and cooling degree-day. It＇s shown that the heating degree-days （HDDs） in most areas of North China reduced obviously during 1961 -2009. The heating energy consumption tended to decrease with temperature rising and the reduction rate in the northern region was greater than that in the southern region. The cooling degree-days （CDDs） in most areas of North China in summer tended to increase. Besides the west of Inner Mongolia, the regions where the CDDs increased significantly in North China corresponded to the urban agglomerations of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shanxi. The rise in temperature made the cooling energy consumption increase greatly in most areas of North China in summer. The result from future climate projection reveals that the HDDs in most areas of North China will reduce persistently and the reduction rate in the northern region is also higher than that in the southern region. Simul- taneously, the CDDs in most areas of North China in summer will continue to increase. The increasing rate in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region, and the most obviously increasing regions are located in the west of Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Tianjin, middle-southern region of Hebei, and south of Shanxi. This reveals that the cooling energy consumption in most areas of North China in summer will significantly increase due to climate warming.展开更多
This study assessed the performances of the traditional temperature-index snowmelt runoff model(SRM) and an SRM model with a finer zonation based on aspect and slope(SRM + AS model) in a data-scarce mountain watershed...This study assessed the performances of the traditional temperature-index snowmelt runoff model(SRM) and an SRM model with a finer zonation based on aspect and slope(SRM + AS model) in a data-scarce mountain watershed in the Urumqi River Basin,in Northwest China.The proposed SRM + AS model was used to estimate the melt rate with the degree-day factor(DDF) through the division of watershed elevation zones based on aspect and slope.The simulation results of the SRM + AS model were compared with those of the traditional SRM model to identify the improvements of the SRM + AS model's performance with consideration of topographic features of the watershed.The results show that the performance of the SRM + AS model has improved slightly compared to that of the SRM model.The coefficients of determination increased from 0.73,0.69,and 0.79 with the SRM model to 0.76,0.76,and 0.81 with the SRM + AS model during the simulation and validation periods in 2005,2006,and 2007,respectively.The proposed SRM + AS model that considers aspect and slope can improve the accuracy of snowmelt runoff simulation compared to the traditional SRM model in mountain watersheds in arid regions by proper parameterization,careful input data selection,and data preparation.展开更多
This paper presents an assessment of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) on a glaciated(Qugaqie) and a non-glaciated(Niyaqu) subbasin of the Nam Co Lake. The Nam Co Lake is located in the southern Tibetan Plateau...This paper presents an assessment of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) on a glaciated(Qugaqie) and a non-glaciated(Niyaqu) subbasin of the Nam Co Lake. The Nam Co Lake is located in the southern Tibetan Plateau, two subbasins having catchment areas of 59 km^2 and 388 km^2, respectively. The scores of examined evaluation indices(i.e., R^2, NSE, and PBIAS) established that the performance of the SWAT model was better on the monthly scale compared to the daily scale. The respective monthly values of R^2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.94, 0.97, and 0.50 for the calibration period while 0.92, 0.88, and -8.80 for the validation period. Glacier melt contribution in the study domain was simulated by using the SWAT model in conjunction with the Degree Day Melt(DDM) approach. The conjunction of DDM with the SWAT Model ensued improved results during both calibration(R^2=0.96, NSE=0.95, and PBIAS=-13.49) and validation (R^2=0.97, NSE=0.96, and PBIAS=-2.87) periods on the monthly time scale. Average contribution(in percentage) of water balance components to the total streamflow of Niyaqu and Qugaqie subbasins was evaluated. We found that the major portion(99.45%) of the streamflow in the Niyaqu subbasin was generated by snowmelt or rainfall surface runoff(SURF_Q), followed by groundwater(GW_Q, 0.47%), and lateral(LAT_Q, 0.06%) flows. Conversely, in the Qugaqie subbasin, major contributor to the streamflow(79.63%) was glacier melt(GLC_Q), followed by SURF_Q(20.14%), GW_Q(0.13%), and LAT_Q(0.089%). The contribution of GLC_Q was the highest(86.79%) in July and lowest(69.95%) in September. This study concludes that the performance of the SWAT model in glaciated catchment is weak without considering glacier component in modeling; however, it performs reasonably well in non-glaciated catchment. Furthermore, the temperature index approach with elevation bands is viable in those catchments where streamflows are driven by snowmelt. Therefore, it is recommended to use the SWAT Model in conjunction with DDM or energy base model to simulate the glacier melt contribution to the total streamflow. This study might be helpful in quantification and better management of water resources in data scarce glaciated regions.展开更多
The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing com...The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components,unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM.The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.展开更多
This study determined the thermal requirements of forest native seedlings (Hymenolobium petraeum and Parkia pendula) and exotic seedlings (Adenanthera pavonina and Cassia fistula) all belonging to Fabaceae family, in ...This study determined the thermal requirements of forest native seedlings (Hymenolobium petraeum and Parkia pendula) and exotic seedlings (Adenanthera pavonina and Cassia fistula) all belonging to Fabaceae family, in three shading conditions (full sun, 50% and 65% of global radiation attenuation by poliefinas black screens). Also they were estimated of leaf emergence by Phyllochron and the Wang and Engel models, on climatological conditions at Sinop (Region of Transition Amazon-Cerrado), Mato Grosso State, Brazil, for winter period (between June and August of 2012). The minimum (Tb) and maximum (TB) basal temperatures and the optimum temperature (Topt) of growth of each species were estimated by regressions between relative growth rates and minimum, maximum and average temperatures, respectively. The values of the estimated Tb were 15.0°C, 16.4°C, 14.5°C and 14.6°C;to TB were 39.7°C, 37.1°C, 38.6°C and 40.1°C;and to Topt were 24.4°C, 24.9°C, 24.9°C and 25.1°C to A. pavonina, C. fistula, H. petraeum and P. pendula, respectively. The Phyllochron model showed highest efficiency in the estimation of leaf appearance when compared to Wang and Engel method.展开更多
Morphological characterization and phenological modeling were carried out on genotypes of <i>Jatropha platyphylla</i> collected from the states of Sinaloa and Durango, Mexico. The morphological characteriz...Morphological characterization and phenological modeling were carried out on genotypes of <i>Jatropha platyphylla</i> collected from the states of Sinaloa and Durango, Mexico. The morphological characterization evidenced the existence of monoecious plants, finding individuals with male and female flowers in the same inflorescence. Fruit with four seeds was also found. The phenological study was divided into two phases and calculated in thermal requirement (<span style="font-family:;" "="">°D): Vegetative [seedtime (0), germination (24), emergence (98), cotyledons (87), second (302) and fourth (524) true leaves, end of vegetative growth (302)] and reproductive [flowering (303), fructification (342), maturation (126), defoliation and senescence (450)]. The thermal constant (2558) was similar in all eight genotypes. The phenological stages and the accumulated degree days were adjusted with a third-degree polynomial (Stage = -0.0041<i>x</i><sup>3</sup> + 0.7446<i>x</i><sup>2</sup> - 8.6808<i>x</i> + 6.2448) (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.99%) stage. The development of phenological models facilitates the prediction of the flowering date for the selection of varieties with high oil and protein content.</span>展开更多
Livestock rearing is one of the major occupations in India and is making significant contribution to the country GDP. The regional and seasonal variations in the teperature and rainfall distribution have been the majo...Livestock rearing is one of the major occupations in India and is making significant contribution to the country GDP. The regional and seasonal variations in the teperature and rainfall distribution have been the major factors influencing the economy of a region. It is a matter of serious concern that out of 11 districts of central India, 9 districts are showing increasing trend in maximum temperature with a rate of 0.01°C to 0.15°C/year. A significant long-term decreasing trend (Slope = -4.26) was found in annual rainfall series at Jhansi. At Jhansi, moderate to severe drought occurs once in five years. But in the last decade, 7 years experienced moderate to disastrous drought in Jhansi region, wherein rainfall deficiency ranged between 40% and 60% from normal value. Of special mention was the year, 2006, which experienced a worst drought ever recorded for this region. Studies related to crop simulation model was carried out for fodder sorghum and its application for agronomic management and assessing the impact of climate change. Crop modeling studies on forage sorghum (C4) and cowpea (C3) showed increased dry matter biomass by 3% in sorghum but more prominent in cowpea by 46% under elevated CO2 from 330 ppm to 770 ppm. The interaction study of enhanced CO2 and temperature showed prominent negative impact on yields of both the crops. Evapotranspiration and crop coefficient (Kc) of several fodder crops i.e. berseem, lucerne, oat, sorghum, teosinte, maize + cowpea, guinea + berseem were worked out. In berseem, the highest Kc (1.81) was found during 2nd cutting followed by 3rd and 4th cuts. Estimates on irrigation scheduling for the guinea grass + berseem showed that the cropping system requires 7 irrigations at an interval ranging from 13 to 30 days to fulfill the 567.6 mm of water per season as net irrigation under mar soil (black) type whose actual water holding capacity (AWHC) is 175 mm. Similarly, if the cropping system is grown under kabar (AHWC = 140 mm) soil, then it requires nine irrigation with a total water requirement of 591.5 mm at an interval ranging from 10 to 24 days. For integrated pest management (IPM) scheme of lucerne, degree day based model was developed to monitor the lucerne weevil population in central region.展开更多
Landsat satellite images and agrometeorological data were used together for modelling the crop coefficient （Kc） in irrigation pivots composed by a mixture of corn hybrids from a commercial farm for grains and silage...Landsat satellite images and agrometeorological data were used together for modelling the crop coefficient （Kc） in irrigation pivots composed by a mixture of corn hybrids from a commercial farm for grains and silage, located at the northwestern side of Sao Paulo state, Brazil. After developing relationships between Kc and the accumulated degree-days （DDac） and having yield data for 2012 available, they were applied in the whole state, to upscale the crop water variables, during the GS （growing seasons） of a second-harvest crop from March to August. Spatial thermohydrological differences among the main corn growing regions were clear. The largest CWP （crop water productivity） values and SD （standard deviations） were for Itapetininga with an average value of 1.60 ± 0.43 kg m-3, while the lowest ones were for Presidente Prudente （0.81±0.21 kg m-3）. As corn is important for these growing regions, being inside of the priorities from the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, these results should be considered for a rational exploration, including both, irrigation and rainfed conditions, as the actual water scarcity can bring much competition with other non-agricultural sectors.展开更多
The removal building heat load and electrical power consumption by air conditioning system are proportional to the outside conditions and solar radiation intensity. Building construction materials has substantial effe...The removal building heat load and electrical power consumption by air conditioning system are proportional to the outside conditions and solar radiation intensity. Building construction materials has substantial effects on the transmission heat through outer walls, ceiling and glazing windows. Good thermal isolation for buildings is important to reduce the transmitted heat and consumed power. The buildings models are constructed from common materials with 0 - 16 cm of thermal insulation thickness in the outer walls and ceilings, and double-layers glazing windows. The building heat loads were calculated for two types of walls and ceiling with and without thermal insulation. The cooling load temperature difference method, <em>CLTD</em>, was used to estimate the building heat load during a 24-hour each day throughout spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons. The annual cooling degree-day, <em>CDD</em> was used to estimate the optimal thermal insulation thickness and payback period with including the solar radiation effect on the outer walls surfaces. The average saved energy percentage in summer, spring, autumn and winter are 35.5%, 32.8%, 33.2% and 30.7% respectively, and average yearly saved energy is about of 33.5%. The optimal thermal insulation thickness was obtained between 7 - 12 cm and payback period of 20 - 30 month for some Egyptian Cities according to the Latitude and annual degree-days.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan periods(2006BAD02A07,2011BAD16B07)
文摘To provide base for adjusting the sowing date,achieving the yield potential of wheat cultivars with different growth characteristics,and improving the utilization rate of natural resource in the North China Plain （NCP）,a 4-yr field experiment of growing degree-days （GDD） before winter （realized through different sowing dates） with three wheat （Triticum aestivum L.） cultivars of each type of semi-winterness and weak springness was carried out at 20 test experimental sites （32°4’N36°1’N） of Henan Province in the NCP.The results showed that：（i） yield of semi-winterness wheat was significantly higher than weak springness wheat （P〈0.01）;（ii） there was a quadratic regression between the yield and GDD before winter.According to the regression equation,the optimum GDD range with high yield of semi-winterness and weak springness wheats was 750-770 and 570-590°C d,respectively;（iii） under the optimum GDD condition,the foliar age on the main stem of semi-winterness and weak springness wheats was 7.67-7.91 and 6.36-6.86 leaves,respectively,calculated by the linear regression equation between foliar age and GDD before winter;（iv） both semi-winterness and weak springness wheats were in the double ridge stage of spike differentiation under the condition of the optimum GDD range,and at this time,the foliar age on the main stem of semi-winterness and weak springness wheats was about 7.80 and 6.07 leaves,respectively,which was consistent with the results calculated by the liner regression equation.Therefore,we could consider that the sowing date is appropriate if the foliar age is about 7.8 and 6.3 leaves for semi-winterness and weak springness wheats,respectively.According to the results of this study,choosing semi-winterness wheat and planting 710 d earlier would improve yield and natural resource utilization in NCP.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41501073, 41471060, 41421061)the project of State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science (SKLCS-ZZ-2017)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M580893, 2016T90966)
文摘The degree-day model is one important method to estimate glacier melt, which is based on the specific relationship between glacial melting and the sum of daily mean temperatures above the melting point. According to the observation data on the Koxkar Glacier(KG) from 2005 to 2010, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of degree-day factors(DDF) and its influential factors. The results indicate that the average value of DDF was 7.2~10.4 mm/(°C·d) on the KG from 2005 to 2010. It showed a decreasing trend between 3,700 m and 4,200 m, and the deceasing trend was more obvious in the upper part of the KG. On a spatial scale, the DDF increased evidently with increasing altitude. The DDF ranged from3.6 to 9.3 mm/(°C·d) at 3,700 m a.s.l., with the average value of 9.3 mm/(°C·d). It varied from 6.9 to 13.0 mm/(°C·d) at4,000 m a.s.l., with the average value of 10.2 mm/(°C·d). During the period of ablation, the fluctuation of DDF was not significant at the lower altitude(3,700 m a.s.l.), but it decreased at the higher altitudes(4,000 m a.s.l. and 4,200 m a.s.l.).The debris changes the transmission of heat, which accelerates the melting of a glacier; and the DDF showed high value.This paper will provide the reference for temporal–spatial parameterization schemes of DDF on Tuomuer glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains.
基金the HKH Cryosphere Monitoring Project implemented by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
文摘The extensive debris that covers glaciers in the ablation zone of the Himalayan region plays an important part in regulating ablation rates and water availability for the downstream region. The melt rate of ice is determined by the amount of heat conducted through debris material lying over the ice. This study presents the vertical temperature gradients, thermal properties in terms of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity, and positive degree-day factors for the debris-covered portion of Lirung Glacier in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalaya using field-based measurements from three different seasons.Field measurements include debris temperatures at different debris thicknesses, air temperature, and ice melt during the monsoon(2013), winter(2013), and pre-monsoon(2014) seasons. We used a thermal equation to estimate thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity, and degree-day factors(DDF) were calculated from cumulative positive temperature and ice melt of the measurement period. Our analysis of debris temperature profiles at different depths of debris show the daily linear gradients of-20.81 °C/m, 4.05 °C/m, and-7.79 °C/m in the monsoon, winter, and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The values of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity in the monsoon season were 10 times greater than in the winter season. The large difference in these values is attributed to surface temperature and moisture content within the debris. Similarly, we found higher values of DDFs at thinner debris for the pre-monsoon season than in the monsoon season although we observed less melting during the pre-monsoon season. This is attributed to higher cumulative temperature during the monsoon season than in the pre-monsoon season. Our study advances our understanding of heat conductivity through debris material in different seasons, which supports estimating ice melt and discharge from glacierized river basins with debris-covered glaciers in the Himalayan region.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.QYZDB-SSW-SYS024)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41771081 and 41761134093).
文摘Glacier mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation at the glacier surface, is the direct reflection of the local climate regime. Under global warming, the simulation of glacier mass balance at the regional scale has attracted increasing interests. This study selects Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as the testbed for examining the transferability in space and time of two commonly used glacier mass balance simulation models: i.e., the Degree-Day Model(DDM) and the simplified Energy Balance Model(s EBM). Four experiments were carried out for assessing both models’ temporal and spatial transferability. The results show that the spatial transferability of both the DDM and s EBM is strong, whereas the temporal transferability of the DDM is relatively weak. For all four experiments, the overall simulation effect of the s EBM is better than that of the DDM. At the zone around Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), the DDM performed better than the s EBM.Also, the accuracy of parameters, including the lapse rate of air temperature and vertical gradient of precipitation at the glacier surface, is of great significance for improving the spatial transferability of both models.
文摘The aim of the research was to connect two methods of the chemical control. The first chemical treatments were applied according to the signalling method. The second method was applied according to the phonological criterion i.e., on the basis of the values of effective temperatures sums or heat sums for cutworms. The studies on cutworms infesting sugar beet crops were carried out in the years 2005-2008. The observation performed during the moth flights from May to September included two species, turnip moth （Agrotis segetum Den. ＆ Schiff.） and heart-and-dart moth （A. exclamationis L.）. The dynamics of moth flights was recorded in reference to readings of climatic conditions registered with the field meteorological stations set up near the light traps. Observations on cutworm occurrence during the vegetation season were done every 5-7 days. Moreover, additional studies were conducted under control conditions in the growth chambers at three programmed temperatures （17°C, 20 °C, 24 °C） and relative humidity （50%-70%）. Based on the results the values for the heat sum of 501.1 °C and effective temperatures sum of 230.0 °C were determined for the developmental stages of cutworm. On the base of the results obtained it can be stated that the improved method of short-term forecasting can be an alternative solution in the integrated protection management against pest.
文摘Linear regression analysis is one the most common methods for weather-normalizing energy data,where energy versus degree-days is plotted,quantifying the impacts of outside temperature on buildings’energy use.However,this approach solely con-siders dry-bulb temperature,while other climate variables are ignored.In addition,depending on buildings’internal loads,weather impact can be less influential,making the linear regression method not applicable for energy data normalization in inter-nally driven buildings(such as research laboratory buildings,healthcare facilities,etc.).In this study,several existing buildings from different categories,all located on the University of Massachusetts Amherst campus and exposed to the same weather conditions in a heating-dominated climate,were analyzed.For all cases,regression of monthly steam use on heating degree-days and floor-area normalized steam data were used,investigating applicability of the former when the latter changes.It was found that internal loads can skew steam consumption,depending on the build-ing functionality,making the effect of degree-days negligible.For laboratory-type buildings,besides heating and domestic hot water production,steam is also used for scientific experiments.Here,daily occupancy percentage,even during weekends and holidays,was higher than that of other buildings,indicating the intensity of scientific experiments performed.This significantly impacted steam consumption,resulting in higher floor-area-normalized steam usage.In these cases,steam use did not provide an outstanding correlation to heating degree-days.Whereas,for cases with other func-tionality-types and lower floor-area normalized steam,coefficients of determination in regressions were high.This study concludes that even for buildings located in the same climate,depending on how building functionality and occupancy schedule influ-ence floor-area normalized steam use,multivariate linear regression can provide more accurate analysis,rather than simple linear regression of steam on heating degree-days.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52169005)the Support Plan for Innovation and Development of Key Industries in southern Xinjiang,China(2022DB024)the Corps Science and Technology Innovation Talents Program Project of China(2023CB008-08).
文摘Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this study,based on 36 Landsat images,we extracted the glacier boundaries in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 using eCognition combined with band operation,GIS(geographic information system)spatial overlay techniques,and manual visual interpretation.We further analyzed the distribution and variation characteristics of glacier area,and simulated glacial runoff using a distributed degree-day model to explore the regulation of runoff recharge.The results showed that glacier area in the Manas River Basin as a whole showed a downward trend over the past 21 a,with a decrease of 10.86%and an average change rate of–0.54%/a.With the increase in glacier scale,the number of smaller glaciers decreased exponentially,and the number and area of larger glaciers were relatively stable.Glacier area showed a normal distribution trend of increasing first and then decreasing with elevation.About 97.92%of glaciers were distributed at 3700–4800 m,and 48.11%of glaciers were observed on the northern and northeastern slopes.The retreat rate of glaciers was the fastest(68.82%)at elevations below 3800 m.There was a clear rise in elevation at the end of glaciers.Glaciers at different slope directions showed a rapid melting trend from the western slope to the southern slope then to the northern slope.Glacial runoff in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend in the past 21 a,with an increase rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)/a.The average annual glacial runoff was 4.80×10^(8) m^(3),of which 33.31%was distributed in the ablation season(June–September).The average annual contribution rate of glacial meltwater to river runoff was 35.40%,and glacial runoff accounted for 45.37%of the total runoff during the ablation season.In addition,precipitation and glacial runoff had complementary regulation patterns for river runoff.The findings can provide a scientific basis for water resource management in the Manas River Basin and other similar arid inland river basins.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41030527 and 41130368)Global Change Research Program of China(No.2010CB951404)Hundred Talents Program of the Chi-nese Academy of Sciences
文摘The degree-day factor （DDF） is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the varia- tions in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Uriimqi （-~O）~Z~=） River in China was selected, and the estimated DDF by stakes-observed mass balance and meteorological data from 1983-2006 was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of DDF and its influencing factors, such as climate condition, surface fea- ture, and topography. Then, the ablations from the 1980s to 2000s were estimated using the degree-day modei, and the ablation change from the 1980s to 2000s was divided into the changes caused by climate change and by the ice-surface feature. The following results were obtained： （1） The annual change in DDF for snow was not obvious, whereas that for ice increased, and the increasing trend on the lower glacier was more significant than that on the upper glacier because of decreased albedo caused by vari- ations in ice-surface feature; （2） The DDF for ice clearly decreased with altitude by approximately 0.046 and 0.043 mm.＇C-l-d-Lm-1 on the east and west branches, respectively, and the DDF of the west branch was obviously larger than that of the east branch in the same altitude belt; （3） the changes in mass balance in the summers from the 1980s to 2000s were -391 and -467 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. Among the total changes, the components directly caused by climate change were -193 and -198 mm, whereas those indirectly caused by ice-surface feature change were -198 and -269 mm on the east and west branches, respectively.
基金The authors wish to thank the financial support received from various sources for conducting this researchThis work was supported by the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi(No.2020NY-204)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,CHD(No.300102289103).
文摘To improve the prediction accuracy of heating demand, an appropriate base temperature should be estimated before using the heating degree-days (HDD) approach. This study collected the measured data for gas consumption at half-hourly resolution and the building physical characteristics from 89 educational buildings over four years. To determine the base temperature, in addition to the ambient temperature, more detailed independent variables, i.e. solar insolation, relative humidity, wind speed, and one-day ahead residual temperature, were incorporated into a three-parameter change-point multi-variable regression (3PH-MVR) for heating. The mean base temperature using the 3PH-MVR approach was about 0.4℃ lower than the results from the 3PH method only. The relationships between base temperature and annual HDD (based on 15.5℃), building location, and mean daily solar insolation were evaluated. It is found that the annual HDD and the daily insolation had clear impacts on base temperature, while there was a plausible relationship between base temperature and building location. Compared with traditional approach, the proposed 3PH-MVR method considers multiple weather parameters and determines a more robust base temperature, thus improving the prediction accuracy of HDD with higher average R2 value at 0.86 than that of univariate regression (0.82).
基金financial support provided by the Forensic Center of HAU ST(Henan University of Science and Technology).
文摘Background:Accumulated degree-days(ADD)refers to the temperature value and time within a certain period.More and more attention has been paid to the ADD in the study of postmortem interval(PMI)estimation.Aim and Objective:This study is to confirm whether ADD is applicable in China.Materials and Methods:We collected meteorological data of 10 different regions in China for 12 months,analyzed the distribution characteristics of ADD in different regions at different time periods,and tested the two ADD calculation methods(accumulated hourly temperature and accumulated daily average temperature),in an attempt to establish a more precise calculation method of ADD.Results:The results show that when the yearly or monthly effective temperature data is taken as the research object,the law of daily ADD mean value gradually decreases from south to north,and the average value of accumulated hourly temperature at each region is larger than the average value of accumulated daily average temperature(the difference was significant).In addition,in different periods of each day,ADD obtained at different regions is different,and the variation of its specific gravity also has a north-south difference.We take the daily average temperature as the independent variable and accumulated hourly temperature as the linear equation fitted by the dependent variable,showing a good linear relationship(0.992<R2<0.999).At the same time,we also identify that extra caution should be exercised when using ADD in some special regions(such as Lhasa)or during the cold season of some regions.It may be unrealistic to attempt divide daily ADD into equal parts and accurately estimate PMI to a certain hour on the day of the crime.However,accurate estimation of PMI can be improved by dividing ADD on the day of the crime according to proportion of different periods and checking the time period of the final ADD value.Conclusion:At present,the study results on ADD need to be further developed,our study provides a preliminary research basis for the future establishment of an unified,simple,accurate,and suitable for the ADD model in China.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51879226)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund (2452020018)。
文摘Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the three major food crops and an important source of carbohydrates for maintaining food security around the world.Plant height (H),stem diameter (SD),leaf area index (LAI) and dry matter (DM) are important growth parameters that influence maize production.However,the combined effect of temperature and light on maize growth is rarely considered in crop growth models.Ten maize growth models based on the modified logistic growth equation (Mlog) and the Mitscherlich growth equation (Mit) were proposed to simulate the H,SD,LAI and DM of maize under different mulching practices based on experimental data from 2015–2018.Either the accumulative growing degree-days (AGDD),helio thermal units (HTU),photothermal units (PTU) or photoperiod thermal units (PPTU,first proposed here) was used as a single driving factor in the models;or AGDD was combined with either accumulative actual solar hours (ASS),accumulative photoperiod response (APR,first proposed here) or accumulative maximum possible sunshine hours (ADL) as the dual driving factors in the models.The model performances were evaluated using seven statistical indicators and a global performance index.The results showed that the three mulching practices significantly increased the maize growth rates and the maximum values of the growth curves compared with non-mulching.Among the four single factor-driven models,the overall performance of the Mlog_(PTU)Model was the best,followed by the Mlog_(AGDD)Model.The Mlog_(PPTU)Model was better than the Mlog_(AGDD)Model in simulating SD and LAI.Among the 10 models,the overall performance of the Mlog_(AGDD–APR)Model was the best,followed by the Mlog_(AGDD–ASS)Model.Specifically,the Mlog_(AGDD–APR)Model performed the best in simulating H and LAI,while the Mlog_(AGDD–ADL)and Mlog_(AGDD–ASS)models performed the best in simulating SD and DM,respectively.In conclusion,the modified logistic growth equations with AGDD and either APR,ASS or ADL as the dual driving factors outperformed the commonly used modified logistic growth model with AGDD as a single driving factor in simulating maize growth.
基金Supported by the Special Project for Scientific Research in Public Welfare Industry(201206024)Special Project for Climate Change of China Meteorological Administration(CCSF2010-1)
文摘Based on the daily meteorological data with preliminary quality-control from 94 meteorological stations in North China during 1961 -2009, the impact of climate change on energy consumption in North China was analyzed by calculating heating and cooling degree-day. It＇s shown that the heating degree-days （HDDs） in most areas of North China reduced obviously during 1961 -2009. The heating energy consumption tended to decrease with temperature rising and the reduction rate in the northern region was greater than that in the southern region. The cooling degree-days （CDDs） in most areas of North China in summer tended to increase. Besides the west of Inner Mongolia, the regions where the CDDs increased significantly in North China corresponded to the urban agglomerations of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shanxi. The rise in temperature made the cooling energy consumption increase greatly in most areas of North China in summer. The result from future climate projection reveals that the HDDs in most areas of North China will reduce persistently and the reduction rate in the northern region is also higher than that in the southern region. Simul- taneously, the CDDs in most areas of North China in summer will continue to increase. The increasing rate in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region, and the most obviously increasing regions are located in the west of Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Tianjin, middle-southern region of Hebei, and south of Shanxi. This reveals that the cooling energy consumption in most areas of North China in summer will significantly increase due to climate warming.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51069017)the International Collaborative Research Program of Xinjiang Science and Technology Commission(Grant No.20126013)
文摘This study assessed the performances of the traditional temperature-index snowmelt runoff model(SRM) and an SRM model with a finer zonation based on aspect and slope(SRM + AS model) in a data-scarce mountain watershed in the Urumqi River Basin,in Northwest China.The proposed SRM + AS model was used to estimate the melt rate with the degree-day factor(DDF) through the division of watershed elevation zones based on aspect and slope.The simulation results of the SRM + AS model were compared with those of the traditional SRM model to identify the improvements of the SRM + AS model's performance with consideration of topographic features of the watershed.The results show that the performance of the SRM + AS model has improved slightly compared to that of the SRM model.The coefficients of determination increased from 0.73,0.69,and 0.79 with the SRM model to 0.76,0.76,and 0.81 with the SRM + AS model during the simulation and validation periods in 2005,2006,and 2007,respectively.The proposed SRM + AS model that considers aspect and slope can improve the accuracy of snowmelt runoff simulation compared to the traditional SRM model in mountain watersheds in arid regions by proper parameterization,careful input data selection,and data preparation.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671067 and 41630754)State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science (SKLCS-ZZ-2015)
文摘This paper presents an assessment of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) on a glaciated(Qugaqie) and a non-glaciated(Niyaqu) subbasin of the Nam Co Lake. The Nam Co Lake is located in the southern Tibetan Plateau, two subbasins having catchment areas of 59 km^2 and 388 km^2, respectively. The scores of examined evaluation indices(i.e., R^2, NSE, and PBIAS) established that the performance of the SWAT model was better on the monthly scale compared to the daily scale. The respective monthly values of R^2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.94, 0.97, and 0.50 for the calibration period while 0.92, 0.88, and -8.80 for the validation period. Glacier melt contribution in the study domain was simulated by using the SWAT model in conjunction with the Degree Day Melt(DDM) approach. The conjunction of DDM with the SWAT Model ensued improved results during both calibration(R^2=0.96, NSE=0.95, and PBIAS=-13.49) and validation (R^2=0.97, NSE=0.96, and PBIAS=-2.87) periods on the monthly time scale. Average contribution(in percentage) of water balance components to the total streamflow of Niyaqu and Qugaqie subbasins was evaluated. We found that the major portion(99.45%) of the streamflow in the Niyaqu subbasin was generated by snowmelt or rainfall surface runoff(SURF_Q), followed by groundwater(GW_Q, 0.47%), and lateral(LAT_Q, 0.06%) flows. Conversely, in the Qugaqie subbasin, major contributor to the streamflow(79.63%) was glacier melt(GLC_Q), followed by SURF_Q(20.14%), GW_Q(0.13%), and LAT_Q(0.089%). The contribution of GLC_Q was the highest(86.79%) in July and lowest(69.95%) in September. This study concludes that the performance of the SWAT model in glaciated catchment is weak without considering glacier component in modeling; however, it performs reasonably well in non-glaciated catchment. Furthermore, the temperature index approach with elevation bands is viable in those catchments where streamflows are driven by snowmelt. Therefore, it is recommended to use the SWAT Model in conjunction with DDM or energy base model to simulate the glacier melt contribution to the total streamflow. This study might be helpful in quantification and better management of water resources in data scarce glaciated regions.
基金the Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center (HiCCDRC), Kathmandu University for constant support throughout the researchfunded by The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)(Grant No. 2019QZKK0904)+3 种基金supported by the Comprehensive Investigation and Assessment of Natural Hazards in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Grant No. 2018FY100500)Ministry of Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Project (2018FY100506)International Science andTechnology Cooperation Program of China (No. 2018YFE0100100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925030 and 41661144028)
文摘The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components,unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM.The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.
文摘This study determined the thermal requirements of forest native seedlings (Hymenolobium petraeum and Parkia pendula) and exotic seedlings (Adenanthera pavonina and Cassia fistula) all belonging to Fabaceae family, in three shading conditions (full sun, 50% and 65% of global radiation attenuation by poliefinas black screens). Also they were estimated of leaf emergence by Phyllochron and the Wang and Engel models, on climatological conditions at Sinop (Region of Transition Amazon-Cerrado), Mato Grosso State, Brazil, for winter period (between June and August of 2012). The minimum (Tb) and maximum (TB) basal temperatures and the optimum temperature (Topt) of growth of each species were estimated by regressions between relative growth rates and minimum, maximum and average temperatures, respectively. The values of the estimated Tb were 15.0°C, 16.4°C, 14.5°C and 14.6°C;to TB were 39.7°C, 37.1°C, 38.6°C and 40.1°C;and to Topt were 24.4°C, 24.9°C, 24.9°C and 25.1°C to A. pavonina, C. fistula, H. petraeum and P. pendula, respectively. The Phyllochron model showed highest efficiency in the estimation of leaf appearance when compared to Wang and Engel method.
文摘Morphological characterization and phenological modeling were carried out on genotypes of <i>Jatropha platyphylla</i> collected from the states of Sinaloa and Durango, Mexico. The morphological characterization evidenced the existence of monoecious plants, finding individuals with male and female flowers in the same inflorescence. Fruit with four seeds was also found. The phenological study was divided into two phases and calculated in thermal requirement (<span style="font-family:;" "="">°D): Vegetative [seedtime (0), germination (24), emergence (98), cotyledons (87), second (302) and fourth (524) true leaves, end of vegetative growth (302)] and reproductive [flowering (303), fructification (342), maturation (126), defoliation and senescence (450)]. The thermal constant (2558) was similar in all eight genotypes. The phenological stages and the accumulated degree days were adjusted with a third-degree polynomial (Stage = -0.0041<i>x</i><sup>3</sup> + 0.7446<i>x</i><sup>2</sup> - 8.6808<i>x</i> + 6.2448) (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.99%) stage. The development of phenological models facilitates the prediction of the flowering date for the selection of varieties with high oil and protein content.</span>
文摘Livestock rearing is one of the major occupations in India and is making significant contribution to the country GDP. The regional and seasonal variations in the teperature and rainfall distribution have been the major factors influencing the economy of a region. It is a matter of serious concern that out of 11 districts of central India, 9 districts are showing increasing trend in maximum temperature with a rate of 0.01°C to 0.15°C/year. A significant long-term decreasing trend (Slope = -4.26) was found in annual rainfall series at Jhansi. At Jhansi, moderate to severe drought occurs once in five years. But in the last decade, 7 years experienced moderate to disastrous drought in Jhansi region, wherein rainfall deficiency ranged between 40% and 60% from normal value. Of special mention was the year, 2006, which experienced a worst drought ever recorded for this region. Studies related to crop simulation model was carried out for fodder sorghum and its application for agronomic management and assessing the impact of climate change. Crop modeling studies on forage sorghum (C4) and cowpea (C3) showed increased dry matter biomass by 3% in sorghum but more prominent in cowpea by 46% under elevated CO2 from 330 ppm to 770 ppm. The interaction study of enhanced CO2 and temperature showed prominent negative impact on yields of both the crops. Evapotranspiration and crop coefficient (Kc) of several fodder crops i.e. berseem, lucerne, oat, sorghum, teosinte, maize + cowpea, guinea + berseem were worked out. In berseem, the highest Kc (1.81) was found during 2nd cutting followed by 3rd and 4th cuts. Estimates on irrigation scheduling for the guinea grass + berseem showed that the cropping system requires 7 irrigations at an interval ranging from 13 to 30 days to fulfill the 567.6 mm of water per season as net irrigation under mar soil (black) type whose actual water holding capacity (AWHC) is 175 mm. Similarly, if the cropping system is grown under kabar (AHWC = 140 mm) soil, then it requires nine irrigation with a total water requirement of 591.5 mm at an interval ranging from 10 to 24 days. For integrated pest management (IPM) scheme of lucerne, degree day based model was developed to monitor the lucerne weevil population in central region.
文摘Landsat satellite images and agrometeorological data were used together for modelling the crop coefficient （Kc） in irrigation pivots composed by a mixture of corn hybrids from a commercial farm for grains and silage, located at the northwestern side of Sao Paulo state, Brazil. After developing relationships between Kc and the accumulated degree-days （DDac） and having yield data for 2012 available, they were applied in the whole state, to upscale the crop water variables, during the GS （growing seasons） of a second-harvest crop from March to August. Spatial thermohydrological differences among the main corn growing regions were clear. The largest CWP （crop water productivity） values and SD （standard deviations） were for Itapetininga with an average value of 1.60 ± 0.43 kg m-3, while the lowest ones were for Presidente Prudente （0.81±0.21 kg m-3）. As corn is important for these growing regions, being inside of the priorities from the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, these results should be considered for a rational exploration, including both, irrigation and rainfed conditions, as the actual water scarcity can bring much competition with other non-agricultural sectors.
文摘The removal building heat load and electrical power consumption by air conditioning system are proportional to the outside conditions and solar radiation intensity. Building construction materials has substantial effects on the transmission heat through outer walls, ceiling and glazing windows. Good thermal isolation for buildings is important to reduce the transmitted heat and consumed power. The buildings models are constructed from common materials with 0 - 16 cm of thermal insulation thickness in the outer walls and ceilings, and double-layers glazing windows. The building heat loads were calculated for two types of walls and ceiling with and without thermal insulation. The cooling load temperature difference method, <em>CLTD</em>, was used to estimate the building heat load during a 24-hour each day throughout spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons. The annual cooling degree-day, <em>CDD</em> was used to estimate the optimal thermal insulation thickness and payback period with including the solar radiation effect on the outer walls surfaces. The average saved energy percentage in summer, spring, autumn and winter are 35.5%, 32.8%, 33.2% and 30.7% respectively, and average yearly saved energy is about of 33.5%. The optimal thermal insulation thickness was obtained between 7 - 12 cm and payback period of 20 - 30 month for some Egyptian Cities according to the Latitude and annual degree-days.
