A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in vari...A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.展开更多
The Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area is rich in mineral resources and has a long history of mining.The environmental impact of long-term mining activities cannot be ignored.It is of great sign...The Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area is rich in mineral resources and has a long history of mining.The environmental impact of long-term mining activities cannot be ignored.It is of great significance to study the ecological risk and the accumulation trends of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas for scientific prevention and control of heavy metal pollution.Taking the Taowanbeigou River Basin in the mine concentration area as the research object,the ecological pollution risk and cumulative effect of heavy metals in the soil of the basin were studied by using the comprehensive pollution index method,potential ecological risk assessment method and geoaccumulation index method.On this basis,the cumulative exceeding years of specific heavy metals were predicted by using the early warning model.The comprehensive potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the soil near the Luanchuan mine concentration area is moderate,and the single element Cd is the main ecological risk factor,with a contribution rate of 53.6%.The overall cumulative degrees of Cu and Pb in the soil are“none-moderate”,Zn and Cd are moderate,Mo has reached an extremely strong cumulative level,Hg,As and Cr risks are not obvious,and the overall cumulative risks order is Mo>Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Hg.According to the current accumulation rate and taking the risk screening values for soil contamination of agricultural land as the reference standard,the locations over standard rates of Cu,Zn and Cd will exceed 78%in 90years,and the over standard rate of Pb will reach approximately 57%in 200 years.The cumulative exceeding standard periods of As,Cr and Hg are generally long,which basically indicates that these elements do not pose a significant potential threat to the ecological environment.Mining activities will accelerate the accumulation of heavy metals in soil.With the continuous development of mining activities,the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas will also increase.展开更多
Bivalve farming plays a dominant role in mariculture in China.Paralytic shellfish toxins(PSTs)can be accumulated in bivalves and cause poisoning the consumers.A sensitive detection of PSTs can provide early warning to...Bivalve farming plays a dominant role in mariculture in China.Paralytic shellfish toxins(PSTs)can be accumulated in bivalves and cause poisoning the consumers.A sensitive detection of PSTs can provide early warning to decrease poisoning events in bivalve consuming.PSTs are traditionally examined using the whole soft-tissues.However,PSTs accumulation varies dramatically in different tissues of bivalves.Some tough tissues/organs(such as mantle),which account for a large proportion of the total soft body,exhibit a lower accumulation of PSTs and make the toxin extraction time-and reagent-consuming,potentially decreasing the accuracy and sensitivity of PSTs monitoring in bivalves.To develop a sensitive and cost-effective approach for PSTs examination in massively farmed bivalves,we fed three commercially important bivalves,Yesso scallop Patinopecten yessoensis,Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas,and blue mussel Mytilus edulis with PSTs-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella,and detected PSTs concentration in different tissues.For all three bivalve species,the digestive gland accumulated much more PSTs than other tissues,and the digestive gland’s toxicity was significantly correlated with the PSTs toxicity of the whole soft-tissues,with r^(2)=0.94,0.92,and 0.94 for Yesso scallop,Pacific oyster,and blue mussel,respectively.When the toxicity of the whole soft-tissues reached 80μgSTXeq(100g)^(−1),the regulatory limit for commercial shellfish,the digestive gland’s toxicity reached 571.48,498.90,and 859.20μgSTXeq(100g)^(−1) in Yesso scallop,Pacific oyster,and blue mussel,respectively.Our results indicate that digestive gland can be used for the sensitive and cost-effective monitoring of PSTs in bivalves.展开更多
Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly...Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.展开更多
Internal solitary waves(ISWs) contain great energy and have the characteristics of emergency and concealment. To avoid their damage to offshore engineering, a new generation of monitoring and early warning system for ...Internal solitary waves(ISWs) contain great energy and have the characteristics of emergency and concealment. To avoid their damage to offshore engineering, a new generation of monitoring and early warning system for ISWs was developed using technologies of double buoys monitoring, intelligent realtime data transmission, and automatic software identification. The system was applied to the second natural gas hydrates(NGHs) production test in the Shenhu Area, South China Sea(SCS) and successfully provided the early warning of ISWs for 173 days(from October 2019 to April 2020). The abrupt changes in the thrust force of the drilling platform under the attack of ISWs were consistent with the early warning information, proving the reliability of this system. A total of 93 ISWs were detected around the drilling platform. Most of them occurred during the spring tides in October–December 2019 and April 2020, while few of them occurred in winter. As suggested by the theoretical model, the full-depth structure of ISWs was a typical current profile of mode-1, and the velocities of wave-induced currents can reach 80 cm/s and30 cm/s, respectively, in the upper ocean and near the seabed. The ISWs may be primarily generated from the interactions between the topography and semidiurnal tides in the Luzon Strait, and then propagate westward to the drilling platform. This study could serve as an important reference for the early warning of ISWs for offshore engineering construction in the future.展开更多
Based on the underground powerhouse of Shuangjiangkou hydropower station,Octree theory is adopted to define the indices of the microseismic(MS)spatial aggregation degree and the deviation values of MS count and energy...Based on the underground powerhouse of Shuangjiangkou hydropower station,Octree theory is adopted to define the indices of the microseismic(MS)spatial aggregation degree and the deviation values of MS count and energy.The relationship between the MS multiple parameters and surrounding rock mass instability is established from three aspects:time,space,and strength.Supplemented by the center frequency of the signal evolution characteristics,A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the evolution trend of the MS event center frequency are constructed to quantitatively describe the early warning state of the surrounding rock mass instability.The results show that the multilevel tree structure and voxels generated based on the Octree theory fit relatively well with the set of MS points in threedimensional space.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on MS spatial aggregation and MS count and energy deviation values enables three-dimensional visualization of the potential damage area and damage extent of the surrounding rock mass.The warning time and potential damage zone quantified are highly consistent with the characteristics of MS precursors,with wide recognition and field investigation results,which fully validate the rationality and applicability of the proposed method.These findings can provide references for the early warning of surrounding rock mass instability in similar underground engineering.展开更多
A number of risks exist in commercial housing,and it is critical for the government,the real estate industry,and consumers to establish an objective early warning indicator system for commercial housing risks and to c...A number of risks exist in commercial housing,and it is critical for the government,the real estate industry,and consumers to establish an objective early warning indicator system for commercial housing risks and to conduct research regarding its measurement and early warning.In this paper,we examine the commodity housing market and construct a risk index for the commodity housing market at three levels:market level,the real estate industry and the national economy.Using the Bootstrap aggregating-grey wolf optimizer-support vector machine(Bagging-GWO-SVM)model after synthesizing the risk index by applying the CRITIC objective weighting method,the commercial housing market can be monitored for risks and early warnings.Based on the empirical study,the following conclusions have been drawn:(1)The commodity housing market risk index accurately reflect the actual risk situation in Tianjin;(2)Based on comparisons with other models,the Bagging-GWO-SVM model provides higher accuracy in early warning.A final set of suggestions is presented based on the empirical study.展开更多
An operating condition recognition approach of wind turbine spindle is proposed based on supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)normal data drive.Firstly,the SCADA raw data of wind turbine under full working c...An operating condition recognition approach of wind turbine spindle is proposed based on supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)normal data drive.Firstly,the SCADA raw data of wind turbine under full working conditions are cleaned and feature extracted.Then the spindle speed is employed as the output parameter,and the single and combined normal behavior model of the wind turbine spindle is constructed sequentially with the preprocessed data,with the evaluation indexes selected as the optimal model.Finally,calculating the spindle operation status index according to the slidingwindowprinciple,ascertaining the threshold value for identifying the abnormal spindle operation status by the hypothesis of small probability event,analyzing the 2.5 MW wind turbine SCADA data froma domestic wind field as a sample,The results show that the fault warning time of the early warningmodel is 5.7 h ahead of the actual fault occurrence time,as well as the identification and early warning of abnormal wind turbine spindle operationwithout abnormal data or a priori knowledge of related faults.展开更多
Objective:The objective of this study was to construct an early warning system(EWS)to facilitate risk assessment,early identification,and appropriate treatment of enteral nutrition feeding intolerance(FI)in patients w...Objective:The objective of this study was to construct an early warning system(EWS)to facilitate risk assessment,early identification,and appropriate treatment of enteral nutrition feeding intolerance(FI)in patients with stroke,so as to provide a reference for risk classification standards and interventions toward a complete EWSs for nursing care of stroke.Materials and Methods:Based on evidence and clinical nursing practice,a structured expert consultation method was adopted on nine experts over two rounds of consultation.Statistical analysis was used to determine the early warning index for FI in patients with stroke.Results:The expert authority coefficient was 0.89;the coefficients of variation for the two rounds of consultation were 0.088-0.312 and 0.096-0.214,respectively.There were significant differences in the Kendall’s concordance coefficient(P<0.05).Finally,22 items in five dimensions of patient age,disease,treatment,biochemical,and enteral nutrition-related factors were identified.Conclusion:The early warning index for FI in patients with a history of stroke is valid and practical.It provides a reference for the early clinical identification of FI risk.展开更多
Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators ...Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators of thunderstorm and gale,hail and short-term heavy rainfall were studied.The results show that the cold vortex weather situation was easy to produce hail,and the falling area of severe convection could be found in the downstream of the cold vortex,the intersection area of jet stream at 200 and 500 hPa,and the wet area side of the 700 hPa main line.The cold trough type weather situation was easy to produce thunderstorm and gale,and the falling area of severe convection appeared on the right side of the upper jet stream axis,the left side of the lower jet stream axis,the wet side of the 700 hPa main line,and the east of the shear line at 700 hPa.The weather situation of the low trough and subtropical high type was dominated by short-term rainstorm,and the falling area of severe convection was on the right side of upper jet stream at 200 hPa,the left side of the low southeast jet stream,and the wet side of the 700 hPa main line.The warning index thresholds of the total index,the temperature change at 850-500 hPa with height,the height of 0 and-20℃layer,lifting condensation height,temperature dew point difference and mixing ratio were highly reliable.展开更多
Introduction: Monitoring vital signs is a basic indicator of a patient’s health status and allows prompt detection of delayed recovery or adverse effects and early intervention. Patients with adverse events during ho...Introduction: Monitoring vital signs is a basic indicator of a patient’s health status and allows prompt detection of delayed recovery or adverse effects and early intervention. Patients with adverse events during hospitalization often display clinical decline for several hours before the event is observed. Non-critical care Nurses’ inconsistent recognition and response to patient deterioration lead to an increase in the length of hospital stay, unexpected admissions to the ICU, and increased morbidity and mortality. Aim: The study aimed to assess the factors that facilitate or impede the detection of early warning signs among adult patients hospitalized in tertiary care settings. Training should be provided to improve nurses’ knowledge, practice and attitude toward early warning signs of deteriorating patients leading to enhanced clinical judgment, skills and decision-making in addressing alerts. Methodology: A literature search was carried out in various databases;these were Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINHAL), Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Sage. The search area was narrowed from 2017 to 2022. The keywords used were “prevalence” AND “unplanned ICU admission”, “the importance of early warning signs” “outcome failure in rescue” “patient deterioration, communication” “improvement in early detection” AND “patient outcome admission” AND “early warning signs” AND “Pakistan”. After the analysis process, around 33 articles that met the inclusion criteria and were most relevant to the scope and context of the current study were considered. Conclusion: Most of the studies had reviewed literature in a qualitative retrospective observational study, content analysis, mixed method, and quasi-experimental study. The literature review identified that long hours of shift, nurse staffing levels, missed vital signs, lack of nursing training and education, and communication impact nurses’ ability to recognize and respond to early warning signs.展开更多
Background: The fatality of adverse drug reactions (ADR) has become one of the major causes of the non-natural disease deaths globally, with the issue of drug safety emerging as a common topic of concern. Objective: T...Background: The fatality of adverse drug reactions (ADR) has become one of the major causes of the non-natural disease deaths globally, with the issue of drug safety emerging as a common topic of concern. Objective: The personalized ADR early warning method, based on contextual ontology and rule learning, proposed in this study aims to provide a reference method for personalized health and medical information services. Methods: First, the patient data is formalized, and the user contextual ontology is constructed, reflecting the characteristics of the patient population. The concept of ontology rule learning is then proposed, which is to mine the rules contained in the data set through machine learning to improve the efficiency and scientificity of ontology rule generation. Based on the contextual ontology of ADR, the high-level context information is identified and predicted by means of reasoning, so the occurrence of the specific adverse reaction in patients from different populations is extracted. Results: Finally, using diabetes drugs as an example, contextual information is identified and predicted through reasoning, to mine the occurrence of specific adverse reactions in different patient populations, and realize personalized medication decision-making and early warning of ADR.展开更多
In Brazil, the prominent climate-induced disasters are floods and mass movements, with the latter being the most lethal. The spate of major landslide events, especially those in 2011, catalyzed the creation of CEMADEN...In Brazil, the prominent climate-induced disasters are floods and mass movements, with the latter being the most lethal. The spate of major landslide events, especially those in 2011, catalyzed the creation of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters). This article introduces one of CEMADEN’s pivotal systems for early landslide warnings and traces its developmental timeline. The highlighted SNAKE System epitomizes advancements in digital monitoring, forecasting, and alert mechanisms. By leveraging precipitation data from pluviometers in observed municipalities, the system bolsters early warnings related to potential mass movements, like planar slides and debris flows. Its deployment in CEMADEN’s Situation Room attests to its suitability for overseeing high-risk municipalities, attributed primarily to its robustness and precision.展开更多
Objective:To determine the clinical distribution of multi-drug resistant organism(MDRO)in Jiangyan Hospital and the monitoring and warning of drug-resistance bacteria to provide an important basis for guiding the appl...Objective:To determine the clinical distribution of multi-drug resistant organism(MDRO)in Jiangyan Hospital and the monitoring and warning of drug-resistance bacteria to provide an important basis for guiding the application of broad-spectrum antibiotics in clinical treatment and reducing the occurrence of nosocomial infection.Methods:Retrospective screening and analysis were conducted on the pathogenic strains of hospitalized patients in our hospital in 2022.Results:A total of 2,769 strains of pathogenic bacteria and 390 strains of MDRO were detected and isolated in our hospital in 2022;the detection rate of MDRO was 14.08%.A total of 516 strains(18.64%)Klebsiella pneumoniae(KP)and 62 strains(12.02%)of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CR-KP)were detected;436 strains(15.75%)of Escherichia coli(ECO)were detected,including 8 strains(1.83%)of CR-ECO;342 strains(12.35%)of Pseudomonas aeruginosa(PA)and 116 strains(33.92%)of CR-PA were detected;there were 194 strains(7.01%)of Acinetobacter baumannii(AB),among which 125 strains(64.43%)were CR-AB;there were 291 strains(10.51%)of Staphylococcus aureus,among which 79 strains(27.15%)of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA)were detected;78 strains(2.82%)of Enterococcus faecalis were detected,and vancomycin-resistant enterococcus(VRE)was not detected.The first five MDROs were CR-AB,CR-PA,MRSA,CR-KP,and CR-ECO.The top five departments with the highest MDRO detection rate in 2022 were the ICU(37.44%),the Pulmonology Department(ward 13;31.03%),the Department of Rehabilitation(ward 5;6.67%),the Department of Neurosurgery(ward 11;4.62%),and the Department of General Surgery(ward 10;3.59 The resistance rate of antibacterial drugs is divided into four levels for early warning:30%to 40%,41%to 50%,51%to 75%,and 75%or more.Conclusion:Our hospital should strengthen the monitoring of antimicrobial resistance warning related to MDRO and the abuse of antimicrobial drugs.Based on the results of drug sensitivity and antimicrobial resistance warning,the use of antibiotics should be standardized in clinical practice to reduce nosocomial infection。展开更多
New technologies such as big data,artificial intelligence,mobile internet,cloud computing,Internet of Things,and blockchain have brought about significant changes and development in the financial industry.Predicting t...New technologies such as big data,artificial intelligence,mobile internet,cloud computing,Internet of Things,and blockchain have brought about significant changes and development in the financial industry.Predicting the financial situation of enterprises,reducing the probability of uncertainty risks,and reducing the likelihood of financial crises have become important issues in enterprise financial crisis warning.In view of the issues in enterprise financial early warning systems such as lag,low accuracy,and high warning costs in data analysis,a financial early warning system based on big data and deep learning technology has been established,taking into account the different situations of listed and non-listed companies.This carries significance in improving the accuracy of enterprise financial early warning and promoting timely and effective decision-making.展开更多
Flooding of small and medium rivers is caused by environmental factors like rainfall and soil loosening.With the development and application of technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data,the disaster sup...Flooding of small and medium rivers is caused by environmental factors like rainfall and soil loosening.With the development and application of technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data,the disaster supervision and management of large river basins in China has improved over the years.However,due to the frequent floods in small and medium-sized rivers in our country,the current prediction and early warning of small and medium-sized rivers is not accurate enough;it is difficult to realize real-time monitoring of small and medium-sized rivers,and it is also impossible to obtain corresponding data and information in time.Therefore,the construction and application of small and medium-sized river prediction and early warning systems should be further improved.This paper presents an analysis and discussion on flood forecasting and early warning systems for small and medium-sized rivers in detail,and corresponding strategies to improve the effect of forecasting and early warning systems are proposed.展开更多
This research uses the 59th-70th national emergency early warning information release monthly report data of China to study the total number of emergency early warnings in 2021, the general situation of early warning ...This research uses the 59th-70th national emergency early warning information release monthly report data of China to study the total number of emergency early warnings in 2021, the general situation of early warning categories and regional distribution differences. The results show that: 1) there are 387,075 early warning information in China in 2021, and the early warning has obvious seasonality. 2) The issuance of early warnings is obviously related to the seasons, and the issuance of early warnings varies from month to month. The issuance of one kind of early warning can easily lead to the issuance of another kind of early warning, that is, the early warnings are closely related, and some specific disasters are easy to cause secondary disasters. 3) There are differences in the number of early warnings in each province. 4) The reason for the peak of early warnings in July and the large proportion of red early warnings in Henan Province is the sudden heavy rainstorm in Henan Province in July;the physical mechanism of this heavy rainstorm is sufficient water vapor, strong uplifting movement and stable situation and a long existence time.展开更多
Purpose:To avoid the nursing risk of inpatients,reduce the occurrence of nursing errors and improve the safety of inpatients.Methods:We established a nursing risk early warning and control system,which includes a safe...Purpose:To avoid the nursing risk of inpatients,reduce the occurrence of nursing errors and improve the safety of inpatients.Methods:We established a nursing risk early warning and control system,which includes a safety supervisory network,risk screening and early warning tools,and a risk control process.Results:The qualified rates of risk control measures to prevent pressure ulcers,unplanned extubation and fall/fall from bed all increased.The incidence of reported nursing errors decreased.The number of mistakes in medication-giving decreased.Conclusion:The establishment of an inpatient early warning and control system could effectively avoid nursing risk,improve risk prevention abilities,improve patient safety,and improve nursing quality.展开更多
BACKGROUND:To evaluate the accuracy of National Early Warning Score(NEWS)in predicting clinical outcomes(28-day mortality,intensive care unit[ICU]admission,and mechanical ventilation use)for septic patients with commu...BACKGROUND:To evaluate the accuracy of National Early Warning Score(NEWS)in predicting clinical outcomes(28-day mortality,intensive care unit[ICU]admission,and mechanical ventilation use)for septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia(CAP)compared with other commonly used severity scores(CURB65,Pneumonia Severity Index[PSI],Sequential Organ Failure Assessment[SOFA],quick SOFA[qSOFA],and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis[MEDS])and admission lactate level.METHODS:Adult patients diagnosed with CAP admitted between January 2017 and May 2019 with admission SOFA≥2 from baseline were enrolled.Demographic characteristics were collected.The primary outcome was the 28-day mortality after admission,and the secondary outcome included ICU admission and mechanical ventilation use.Outcome prediction value of parameters above was compared using receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curves.Cox regression analyses were carried out to determine the risk factors for the 28-day mortality.Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and compared using optimal cut-off values of qSOFA and NEWS.RESULTS:Among the 340 enrolled patients,90 patients were dead after a 28-day follow-up,62 patients were admitted to ICU,and 84 patients underwent mechanical ventilation.Among single predictors,NEWS achieved the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC)curve in predicting the 28-day mortality(0.861),ICU admission(0.895),and use of mechanical ventilation(0.873).NEWS+lactate,similar to MEDS+lactate,outperformed other combinations of severity score and admission lactate in predicting the 28-day mortality(AUROC 0.866)and ICU admission(AUROC 0.905),while NEWS+lactate did not outperform other combinations in predicting mechanical ventilation(AUROC 0.886).Admission lactate only improved the predicting performance of CURB65 and qSOFA in predicting the 28-day mortality and ICU admission.CONCLUSIONS:NEWS could be a valuable predictor in septic patients with CAP in emergency departments.Admission lactate did not predict well the outcomes or improve the severity scores.A qSOFA≥2 and a NEWS≥9 were strongly associated with the 28-day mortality,ICU admission,and mechanical ventilation of septic patients with CAP in the emergency departments.展开更多
On the basis of the massive amount of published literature and the long-term practice of our research group in the field of prevention and control of rockburst,the research progress and shortcomings in understanding t...On the basis of the massive amount of published literature and the long-term practice of our research group in the field of prevention and control of rockburst,the research progress and shortcomings in understanding the rockburst phenomenon have been comprehensively in-vestigated.This study focuses on the occurrence mechanism and monitoring and early warning technology for rockburst in coal mines.Results showed that the prevention and control of rockburst had made significant progress.However,with the increasing mining depth,several unre-solved concerns remain challenging.From the in-depth research and analysis,it can be inferred that rockburst disasters involve three main problems,i.e.,the induction factors are complicated,the mechanism is still unclear,and the accuracy of the monitoring equipment and multi-source stereo monitoring technology is insufficient.The monitoring and warning standards of rockburst need to be further clarified and im-proved.Combined with the Internet of Things,cloud computing,and big data,a study of the trend of rockburst needs to be conducted.Further-more,the mechanism of multiphase and multi-field coupling induced by rockburst on a large scale needs to be explored.A multisystem and multiparameter integrated monitoring and early warning system and remote monitoring cloud platform for rockburst should be explored and developed.High-reliability sensing technology and equipment and perfect monitoring and early warning standards are considered to be the de-velopment direction of rockburst in the future.This research will help experts and technicians adopt effective measures for controlling rock-burst disasters.展开更多
文摘A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Research Project to Henan Provincial Department of Natural Resources(Henan Natural Resources Letter[2019]373–10)。
文摘The Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area is rich in mineral resources and has a long history of mining.The environmental impact of long-term mining activities cannot be ignored.It is of great significance to study the ecological risk and the accumulation trends of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas for scientific prevention and control of heavy metal pollution.Taking the Taowanbeigou River Basin in the mine concentration area as the research object,the ecological pollution risk and cumulative effect of heavy metals in the soil of the basin were studied by using the comprehensive pollution index method,potential ecological risk assessment method and geoaccumulation index method.On this basis,the cumulative exceeding years of specific heavy metals were predicted by using the early warning model.The comprehensive potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the soil near the Luanchuan mine concentration area is moderate,and the single element Cd is the main ecological risk factor,with a contribution rate of 53.6%.The overall cumulative degrees of Cu and Pb in the soil are“none-moderate”,Zn and Cd are moderate,Mo has reached an extremely strong cumulative level,Hg,As and Cr risks are not obvious,and the overall cumulative risks order is Mo>Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Hg.According to the current accumulation rate and taking the risk screening values for soil contamination of agricultural land as the reference standard,the locations over standard rates of Cu,Zn and Cd will exceed 78%in 90years,and the over standard rate of Pb will reach approximately 57%in 200 years.The cumulative exceeding standard periods of As,Cr and Hg are generally long,which basically indicates that these elements do not pose a significant potential threat to the ecological environment.Mining activities will accelerate the accumulation of heavy metals in soil.With the continuous development of mining activities,the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas will also increase.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Project(No.2019YFC1605704)the Taishan Industry Leading Talent Project(No.LJNY201816)supported by Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City(No.SKJCKJ-2019KY01).
文摘Bivalve farming plays a dominant role in mariculture in China.Paralytic shellfish toxins(PSTs)can be accumulated in bivalves and cause poisoning the consumers.A sensitive detection of PSTs can provide early warning to decrease poisoning events in bivalve consuming.PSTs are traditionally examined using the whole soft-tissues.However,PSTs accumulation varies dramatically in different tissues of bivalves.Some tough tissues/organs(such as mantle),which account for a large proportion of the total soft body,exhibit a lower accumulation of PSTs and make the toxin extraction time-and reagent-consuming,potentially decreasing the accuracy and sensitivity of PSTs monitoring in bivalves.To develop a sensitive and cost-effective approach for PSTs examination in massively farmed bivalves,we fed three commercially important bivalves,Yesso scallop Patinopecten yessoensis,Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas,and blue mussel Mytilus edulis with PSTs-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella,and detected PSTs concentration in different tissues.For all three bivalve species,the digestive gland accumulated much more PSTs than other tissues,and the digestive gland’s toxicity was significantly correlated with the PSTs toxicity of the whole soft-tissues,with r^(2)=0.94,0.92,and 0.94 for Yesso scallop,Pacific oyster,and blue mussel,respectively.When the toxicity of the whole soft-tissues reached 80μgSTXeq(100g)^(−1),the regulatory limit for commercial shellfish,the digestive gland’s toxicity reached 571.48,498.90,and 859.20μgSTXeq(100g)^(−1) in Yesso scallop,Pacific oyster,and blue mussel,respectively.Our results indicate that digestive gland can be used for the sensitive and cost-effective monitoring of PSTs in bivalves.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFB3901104).
文摘Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.
基金funded by the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0307)the Marine Geological Survey Program of China Geological Survey (DD20190218, DD20221706)+1 种基金the Key Program of Marine Economy Development Special Foundation of Department of Natural Resources of Guangdong Province (GDNRC [2020] 043)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41806074, 41730528)。
文摘Internal solitary waves(ISWs) contain great energy and have the characteristics of emergency and concealment. To avoid their damage to offshore engineering, a new generation of monitoring and early warning system for ISWs was developed using technologies of double buoys monitoring, intelligent realtime data transmission, and automatic software identification. The system was applied to the second natural gas hydrates(NGHs) production test in the Shenhu Area, South China Sea(SCS) and successfully provided the early warning of ISWs for 173 days(from October 2019 to April 2020). The abrupt changes in the thrust force of the drilling platform under the attack of ISWs were consistent with the early warning information, proving the reliability of this system. A total of 93 ISWs were detected around the drilling platform. Most of them occurred during the spring tides in October–December 2019 and April 2020, while few of them occurred in winter. As suggested by the theoretical model, the full-depth structure of ISWs was a typical current profile of mode-1, and the velocities of wave-induced currents can reach 80 cm/s and30 cm/s, respectively, in the upper ocean and near the seabed. The ISWs may be primarily generated from the interactions between the topography and semidiurnal tides in the Luzon Strait, and then propagate westward to the drilling platform. This study could serve as an important reference for the early warning of ISWs for offshore engineering construction in the future.
基金the Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Sichuan Province(No.2020JDJQ0011)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42177143,51809221,and 52274145)the State Key Laboratory for GeoMechanics and Deep Underground Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology(No.SKLGDUEK2013)。
文摘Based on the underground powerhouse of Shuangjiangkou hydropower station,Octree theory is adopted to define the indices of the microseismic(MS)spatial aggregation degree and the deviation values of MS count and energy.The relationship between the MS multiple parameters and surrounding rock mass instability is established from three aspects:time,space,and strength.Supplemented by the center frequency of the signal evolution characteristics,A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the evolution trend of the MS event center frequency are constructed to quantitatively describe the early warning state of the surrounding rock mass instability.The results show that the multilevel tree structure and voxels generated based on the Octree theory fit relatively well with the set of MS points in threedimensional space.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on MS spatial aggregation and MS count and energy deviation values enables three-dimensional visualization of the potential damage area and damage extent of the surrounding rock mass.The warning time and potential damage zone quantified are highly consistent with the characteristics of MS precursors,with wide recognition and field investigation results,which fully validate the rationality and applicability of the proposed method.These findings can provide references for the early warning of surrounding rock mass instability in similar underground engineering.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant Number 81973791.
文摘A number of risks exist in commercial housing,and it is critical for the government,the real estate industry,and consumers to establish an objective early warning indicator system for commercial housing risks and to conduct research regarding its measurement and early warning.In this paper,we examine the commodity housing market and construct a risk index for the commodity housing market at three levels:market level,the real estate industry and the national economy.Using the Bootstrap aggregating-grey wolf optimizer-support vector machine(Bagging-GWO-SVM)model after synthesizing the risk index by applying the CRITIC objective weighting method,the commercial housing market can be monitored for risks and early warnings.Based on the empirical study,the following conclusions have been drawn:(1)The commodity housing market risk index accurately reflect the actual risk situation in Tianjin;(2)Based on comparisons with other models,the Bagging-GWO-SVM model provides higher accuracy in early warning.A final set of suggestions is presented based on the empirical study.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51965034).
文摘An operating condition recognition approach of wind turbine spindle is proposed based on supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)normal data drive.Firstly,the SCADA raw data of wind turbine under full working conditions are cleaned and feature extracted.Then the spindle speed is employed as the output parameter,and the single and combined normal behavior model of the wind turbine spindle is constructed sequentially with the preprocessed data,with the evaluation indexes selected as the optimal model.Finally,calculating the spindle operation status index according to the slidingwindowprinciple,ascertaining the threshold value for identifying the abnormal spindle operation status by the hypothesis of small probability event,analyzing the 2.5 MW wind turbine SCADA data froma domestic wind field as a sample,The results show that the fault warning time of the early warningmodel is 5.7 h ahead of the actual fault occurrence time,as well as the identification and early warning of abnormal wind turbine spindle operationwithout abnormal data or a priori knowledge of related faults.
基金supported by the Young Teacher Project of the Beijing University of Chinese Medicine(No.:2018-JYB-JS155).
文摘Objective:The objective of this study was to construct an early warning system(EWS)to facilitate risk assessment,early identification,and appropriate treatment of enteral nutrition feeding intolerance(FI)in patients with stroke,so as to provide a reference for risk classification standards and interventions toward a complete EWSs for nursing care of stroke.Materials and Methods:Based on evidence and clinical nursing practice,a structured expert consultation method was adopted on nine experts over two rounds of consultation.Statistical analysis was used to determine the early warning index for FI in patients with stroke.Results:The expert authority coefficient was 0.89;the coefficients of variation for the two rounds of consultation were 0.088-0.312 and 0.096-0.214,respectively.There were significant differences in the Kendall’s concordance coefficient(P<0.05).Finally,22 items in five dimensions of patient age,disease,treatment,biochemical,and enteral nutrition-related factors were identified.Conclusion:The early warning index for FI in patients with a history of stroke is valid and practical.It provides a reference for the early clinical identification of FI risk.
文摘Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators of thunderstorm and gale,hail and short-term heavy rainfall were studied.The results show that the cold vortex weather situation was easy to produce hail,and the falling area of severe convection could be found in the downstream of the cold vortex,the intersection area of jet stream at 200 and 500 hPa,and the wet area side of the 700 hPa main line.The cold trough type weather situation was easy to produce thunderstorm and gale,and the falling area of severe convection appeared on the right side of the upper jet stream axis,the left side of the lower jet stream axis,the wet side of the 700 hPa main line,and the east of the shear line at 700 hPa.The weather situation of the low trough and subtropical high type was dominated by short-term rainstorm,and the falling area of severe convection was on the right side of upper jet stream at 200 hPa,the left side of the low southeast jet stream,and the wet side of the 700 hPa main line.The warning index thresholds of the total index,the temperature change at 850-500 hPa with height,the height of 0 and-20℃layer,lifting condensation height,temperature dew point difference and mixing ratio were highly reliable.
文摘Introduction: Monitoring vital signs is a basic indicator of a patient’s health status and allows prompt detection of delayed recovery or adverse effects and early intervention. Patients with adverse events during hospitalization often display clinical decline for several hours before the event is observed. Non-critical care Nurses’ inconsistent recognition and response to patient deterioration lead to an increase in the length of hospital stay, unexpected admissions to the ICU, and increased morbidity and mortality. Aim: The study aimed to assess the factors that facilitate or impede the detection of early warning signs among adult patients hospitalized in tertiary care settings. Training should be provided to improve nurses’ knowledge, practice and attitude toward early warning signs of deteriorating patients leading to enhanced clinical judgment, skills and decision-making in addressing alerts. Methodology: A literature search was carried out in various databases;these were Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINHAL), Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Sage. The search area was narrowed from 2017 to 2022. The keywords used were “prevalence” AND “unplanned ICU admission”, “the importance of early warning signs” “outcome failure in rescue” “patient deterioration, communication” “improvement in early detection” AND “patient outcome admission” AND “early warning signs” AND “Pakistan”. After the analysis process, around 33 articles that met the inclusion criteria and were most relevant to the scope and context of the current study were considered. Conclusion: Most of the studies had reviewed literature in a qualitative retrospective observational study, content analysis, mixed method, and quasi-experimental study. The literature review identified that long hours of shift, nurse staffing levels, missed vital signs, lack of nursing training and education, and communication impact nurses’ ability to recognize and respond to early warning signs.
文摘Background: The fatality of adverse drug reactions (ADR) has become one of the major causes of the non-natural disease deaths globally, with the issue of drug safety emerging as a common topic of concern. Objective: The personalized ADR early warning method, based on contextual ontology and rule learning, proposed in this study aims to provide a reference method for personalized health and medical information services. Methods: First, the patient data is formalized, and the user contextual ontology is constructed, reflecting the characteristics of the patient population. The concept of ontology rule learning is then proposed, which is to mine the rules contained in the data set through machine learning to improve the efficiency and scientificity of ontology rule generation. Based on the contextual ontology of ADR, the high-level context information is identified and predicted by means of reasoning, so the occurrence of the specific adverse reaction in patients from different populations is extracted. Results: Finally, using diabetes drugs as an example, contextual information is identified and predicted through reasoning, to mine the occurrence of specific adverse reactions in different patient populations, and realize personalized medication decision-making and early warning of ADR.
文摘In Brazil, the prominent climate-induced disasters are floods and mass movements, with the latter being the most lethal. The spate of major landslide events, especially those in 2011, catalyzed the creation of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters). This article introduces one of CEMADEN’s pivotal systems for early landslide warnings and traces its developmental timeline. The highlighted SNAKE System epitomizes advancements in digital monitoring, forecasting, and alert mechanisms. By leveraging precipitation data from pluviometers in observed municipalities, the system bolsters early warnings related to potential mass movements, like planar slides and debris flows. Its deployment in CEMADEN’s Situation Room attests to its suitability for overseeing high-risk municipalities, attributed primarily to its robustness and precision.
文摘Objective:To determine the clinical distribution of multi-drug resistant organism(MDRO)in Jiangyan Hospital and the monitoring and warning of drug-resistance bacteria to provide an important basis for guiding the application of broad-spectrum antibiotics in clinical treatment and reducing the occurrence of nosocomial infection.Methods:Retrospective screening and analysis were conducted on the pathogenic strains of hospitalized patients in our hospital in 2022.Results:A total of 2,769 strains of pathogenic bacteria and 390 strains of MDRO were detected and isolated in our hospital in 2022;the detection rate of MDRO was 14.08%.A total of 516 strains(18.64%)Klebsiella pneumoniae(KP)and 62 strains(12.02%)of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CR-KP)were detected;436 strains(15.75%)of Escherichia coli(ECO)were detected,including 8 strains(1.83%)of CR-ECO;342 strains(12.35%)of Pseudomonas aeruginosa(PA)and 116 strains(33.92%)of CR-PA were detected;there were 194 strains(7.01%)of Acinetobacter baumannii(AB),among which 125 strains(64.43%)were CR-AB;there were 291 strains(10.51%)of Staphylococcus aureus,among which 79 strains(27.15%)of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA)were detected;78 strains(2.82%)of Enterococcus faecalis were detected,and vancomycin-resistant enterococcus(VRE)was not detected.The first five MDROs were CR-AB,CR-PA,MRSA,CR-KP,and CR-ECO.The top five departments with the highest MDRO detection rate in 2022 were the ICU(37.44%),the Pulmonology Department(ward 13;31.03%),the Department of Rehabilitation(ward 5;6.67%),the Department of Neurosurgery(ward 11;4.62%),and the Department of General Surgery(ward 10;3.59 The resistance rate of antibacterial drugs is divided into four levels for early warning:30%to 40%,41%to 50%,51%to 75%,and 75%or more.Conclusion:Our hospital should strengthen the monitoring of antimicrobial resistance warning related to MDRO and the abuse of antimicrobial drugs.Based on the results of drug sensitivity and antimicrobial resistance warning,the use of antibiotics should be standardized in clinical practice to reduce nosocomial infection。
文摘New technologies such as big data,artificial intelligence,mobile internet,cloud computing,Internet of Things,and blockchain have brought about significant changes and development in the financial industry.Predicting the financial situation of enterprises,reducing the probability of uncertainty risks,and reducing the likelihood of financial crises have become important issues in enterprise financial crisis warning.In view of the issues in enterprise financial early warning systems such as lag,low accuracy,and high warning costs in data analysis,a financial early warning system based on big data and deep learning technology has been established,taking into account the different situations of listed and non-listed companies.This carries significance in improving the accuracy of enterprise financial early warning and promoting timely and effective decision-making.
文摘Flooding of small and medium rivers is caused by environmental factors like rainfall and soil loosening.With the development and application of technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data,the disaster supervision and management of large river basins in China has improved over the years.However,due to the frequent floods in small and medium-sized rivers in our country,the current prediction and early warning of small and medium-sized rivers is not accurate enough;it is difficult to realize real-time monitoring of small and medium-sized rivers,and it is also impossible to obtain corresponding data and information in time.Therefore,the construction and application of small and medium-sized river prediction and early warning systems should be further improved.This paper presents an analysis and discussion on flood forecasting and early warning systems for small and medium-sized rivers in detail,and corresponding strategies to improve the effect of forecasting and early warning systems are proposed.
文摘This research uses the 59th-70th national emergency early warning information release monthly report data of China to study the total number of emergency early warnings in 2021, the general situation of early warning categories and regional distribution differences. The results show that: 1) there are 387,075 early warning information in China in 2021, and the early warning has obvious seasonality. 2) The issuance of early warnings is obviously related to the seasons, and the issuance of early warnings varies from month to month. The issuance of one kind of early warning can easily lead to the issuance of another kind of early warning, that is, the early warnings are closely related, and some specific disasters are easy to cause secondary disasters. 3) There are differences in the number of early warnings in each province. 4) The reason for the peak of early warnings in July and the large proportion of red early warnings in Henan Province is the sudden heavy rainstorm in Henan Province in July;the physical mechanism of this heavy rainstorm is sufficient water vapor, strong uplifting movement and stable situation and a long existence time.
基金This study was supported by the Shanghai Health System Advanced and Appropriate Technology Promotion Project(No.2013SY030).
文摘Purpose:To avoid the nursing risk of inpatients,reduce the occurrence of nursing errors and improve the safety of inpatients.Methods:We established a nursing risk early warning and control system,which includes a safety supervisory network,risk screening and early warning tools,and a risk control process.Results:The qualified rates of risk control measures to prevent pressure ulcers,unplanned extubation and fall/fall from bed all increased.The incidence of reported nursing errors decreased.The number of mistakes in medication-giving decreased.Conclusion:The establishment of an inpatient early warning and control system could effectively avoid nursing risk,improve risk prevention abilities,improve patient safety,and improve nursing quality.
基金Capital Clinical Characteristic Application Research of Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission (Z171100001017057).
文摘BACKGROUND:To evaluate the accuracy of National Early Warning Score(NEWS)in predicting clinical outcomes(28-day mortality,intensive care unit[ICU]admission,and mechanical ventilation use)for septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia(CAP)compared with other commonly used severity scores(CURB65,Pneumonia Severity Index[PSI],Sequential Organ Failure Assessment[SOFA],quick SOFA[qSOFA],and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis[MEDS])and admission lactate level.METHODS:Adult patients diagnosed with CAP admitted between January 2017 and May 2019 with admission SOFA≥2 from baseline were enrolled.Demographic characteristics were collected.The primary outcome was the 28-day mortality after admission,and the secondary outcome included ICU admission and mechanical ventilation use.Outcome prediction value of parameters above was compared using receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curves.Cox regression analyses were carried out to determine the risk factors for the 28-day mortality.Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and compared using optimal cut-off values of qSOFA and NEWS.RESULTS:Among the 340 enrolled patients,90 patients were dead after a 28-day follow-up,62 patients were admitted to ICU,and 84 patients underwent mechanical ventilation.Among single predictors,NEWS achieved the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC)curve in predicting the 28-day mortality(0.861),ICU admission(0.895),and use of mechanical ventilation(0.873).NEWS+lactate,similar to MEDS+lactate,outperformed other combinations of severity score and admission lactate in predicting the 28-day mortality(AUROC 0.866)and ICU admission(AUROC 0.905),while NEWS+lactate did not outperform other combinations in predicting mechanical ventilation(AUROC 0.886).Admission lactate only improved the predicting performance of CURB65 and qSOFA in predicting the 28-day mortality and ICU admission.CONCLUSIONS:NEWS could be a valuable predictor in septic patients with CAP in emergency departments.Admission lactate did not predict well the outcomes or improve the severity scores.A qSOFA≥2 and a NEWS≥9 were strongly associated with the 28-day mortality,ICU admission,and mechanical ventilation of septic patients with CAP in the emergency departments.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51634001,51774023,and 51904019).
文摘On the basis of the massive amount of published literature and the long-term practice of our research group in the field of prevention and control of rockburst,the research progress and shortcomings in understanding the rockburst phenomenon have been comprehensively in-vestigated.This study focuses on the occurrence mechanism and monitoring and early warning technology for rockburst in coal mines.Results showed that the prevention and control of rockburst had made significant progress.However,with the increasing mining depth,several unre-solved concerns remain challenging.From the in-depth research and analysis,it can be inferred that rockburst disasters involve three main problems,i.e.,the induction factors are complicated,the mechanism is still unclear,and the accuracy of the monitoring equipment and multi-source stereo monitoring technology is insufficient.The monitoring and warning standards of rockburst need to be further clarified and im-proved.Combined with the Internet of Things,cloud computing,and big data,a study of the trend of rockburst needs to be conducted.Further-more,the mechanism of multiphase and multi-field coupling induced by rockburst on a large scale needs to be explored.A multisystem and multiparameter integrated monitoring and early warning system and remote monitoring cloud platform for rockburst should be explored and developed.High-reliability sensing technology and equipment and perfect monitoring and early warning standards are considered to be the de-velopment direction of rockburst in the future.This research will help experts and technicians adopt effective measures for controlling rock-burst disasters.
