We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a p...We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.展开更多
It has been primarily confirmed that before the occurrence of a middle or major earthquake, anomalies in the residuals of universal time and latitude measurements obtained by astrometric observations may appear. We in...It has been primarily confirmed that before the occurrence of a middle or major earthquake, anomalies in the residuals of universal time and latitude measurements obtained by astrometric observations may appear. We investigate the relation between the residual anomalies and the three key factors of an earthquake. To build a network of observational sites so as to obtain data of residuals of universal time and latitude from multi-instruments would be of certain significance for determining three key factors of an earthquake, especially for positioning epicenter. The data from multi-instruments would also be valuable for studies of the variation of the vertical. It is proposed to manufacture potable and high-accuracy astrometric instruments and to build observational network to obtain anomalies of universal time and latitude in the regions with high earthquake uprising possibilities.展开更多
The system of geophysical shells （lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere） is considered as an open complex nonlinear system with dissipation where earthquake preparation could be regarded as a self-organizing process l...The system of geophysical shells （lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere） is considered as an open complex nonlinear system with dissipation where earthquake preparation could be regarded as a self-organizing process leading to the critical state of the system. The processes in atmosphere and ionosphere are considered from the point of view of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The intensive ionization of boundary layer of atmosphere （probably provided by radon in occasion of earthquake preparation） gives start to the synergetic sequence of coupling processes where the ionosphere and even magnetosphere are the last links in the chain of interactions. Every anomaly observed in different geophysical fields （surface temperature, latent heat flux, electromagnetic emissions, variations in ionosphere, particle precipitation, etc.） is not considered as an individual process but the part of the self-organizing process, the final goal of which is the reaching of the point of the maximum entropy. Radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake is considered as a perfect example to satisfy the formal seismological determination of the earthquake precursor. What is genetically connected with radon through the ionization process can also be regarded as a precursor. The problem of co-seismic variations of the discussed parameters of atmosphere and ionosphere is considered as well.展开更多
Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multi-point strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during th...Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multi-point strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using Cv value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of Cv value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of Cv value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. Cv value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when Cv value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that Cv value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.展开更多
Statistical properties of reported earthquake precursors show apparent focal mechanism dependence. Intensity of anomaly is described by the ′anomaly ratio′ as defined by the number of stations/items reporting anoma...Statistical properties of reported earthquake precursors show apparent focal mechanism dependence. Intensity of anomaly is described by the ′anomaly ratio′ as defined by the number of stations/items reporting anomalies before the target earthquake over the number of stations/items in operation around the target earthquake. Variation of the ′anomaly ratio′ with the magnitude of the target earthquake was studied for dip-slip earthquakes all over China, strike-slip earthquakes in eastern China, and strike-slip earthquakes in western China, respectively. It is observed that for strike-slip earthquakes, the ′anomaly ratio′ increases linearly with the magnitude of the target earthquake, while earthquakes in eastern China and western China have different slopes. For dip-slip earthquakes, however, the ′anomaly ratio′ has no statistically significant change with the magnitude of the target earthquake. Limited data imply that the ′anomaly ratio′ seems proportional to the apparent stress of the target earthquake. The result might be heuristic for the analysis of candidate earthquake precursors.展开更多
The recent argument about nucleation phase of earthquakes reminds us to completely study the concept of earthquake nucleation. The original meaning of nucleation includes concentration, nucleation and initiation of th...The recent argument about nucleation phase of earthquakes reminds us to completely study the concept of earthquake nucleation. The original meaning of nucleation includes concentration, nucleation and initiation of the eruptive processes. Thus, it is needed to discuss how to exactly translate the word 'nucleation' into Chinese in different fields. The basic concept of earthquake nucleation refers to microcrack concentration in rock. It causes local weakening and instability of the rock. The narrow sense of nucleation theory of friction constitutive is significant in friction of fault surfaces, but should not abuse everywhere unconditionally. In terms of thermodynamics, nucleation actually means the variety processes of multiple state parameters of rock. The nucleation is a project that covers multiple courses. In this paper, the studies of damage theory, fracture, earthquake rupture dynamics and constitutive of friction and their implication to earthquake nucleation are remarked. The recently developments are introduced, including the influence of tectonic on the earthquake nucleation process, the method of measuring medium anisotropy, especially shear wave splitting led by concentration and orientation of microcracks. and the experimental study of remote sensing of infrared and microwave radiation related to the nucleation, etc. This paper also discusses the characteristic of large earthquake nucleation, and the implication of above studies to precursors of Strong earthquakes.展开更多
The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes by the geomagnetic method. The geomagnetic method is widely used on this problem in seismically active regions of the world as one of the promisi...The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes by the geomagnetic method. The geomagnetic method is widely used on this problem in seismically active regions of the world as one of the promising, informative and operational geophysical methods. The results of long-term geomagnetic studies on the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes in Uzbekistan are presented. Geomagnetic studies were carried out on the territories of the Tashkent, Ferghana, and Kyzylkum geodynamic polygons in the epicentral zones of strong earthquakes that occurred. Long-term, medium- and short-term precursors of earthquakes have been identified. Anomalous changes in the geomagnetic field associated with the decline in aftershock activity were also revealed. The dependence between the duration of the manifestation of long-term magnetic precursors and the magnitude of earthquakes is determined. Absolute proton magnetometers MMP-1, MV-01 (Russia), and G-856 (USA) were used to measure the geomagnetic field.展开更多
We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The ...We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The main idea is as follows. The distribution of the electric field around a thundercloud depends on the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Quasi-static electric fields of a thundercloud decrease in those tropospheric regions where an increase of air conductivity is generated by pre-seismic activities due to emanation of radioactive gas and water into the lower atmosphere. The electric field becomes reduced in the lower troposphere, and the probability decreases of the cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in such “contaminated” areas. Simultaneously, the electric field grows inside and above the thunderclouds, and hence, we anticipate a growth in the number of horizontal and tilted inter-cloud (or intra-cloud) (both termed as IC discharges) strokes. Spatial orientation of lightning strokes reduces vertical projection of their individual amplitudes, while the rate (median number strokes per a unit time) of discharges grows. We demonstrate that channel tilt of strokes modifies the spectral content of ELF/VLF radio noise and changes the rate of detected pulses during the earthquake preparation phase.展开更多
This paper deals with the fuzzy information processing method in the research of the relationship between two variables or among multi-variables, with the undetermined or fuzzy features, different from that in the tr...This paper deals with the fuzzy information processing method in the research of the relationship between two variables or among multi-variables, with the undetermined or fuzzy features, different from that in the traditional statistical method. The reliability and effectiveness of the method have been tested and confirmed in the numerical simulation for a set of man-made data of precursory anomalous parameters and earthquake elements. Finally the relation between the actual monthly frequency of small earthquakes occurring in Huoshan, Anhui Province, China and the magnitude of future stronger earthquakes, as two variables, has been analyzed by the method. It seems to the authors that more reasonable and perfect results could be given with a quantitative analysis of accession degree in fuzzy mathematics by using this method than that of traditional statistical correlation analysis.展开更多
Since 2009 a network of VLF (20 - 60 kHz) and LF (150 - 300 kHz) radio receivers is operating in Europe in order to study the disturbances produced by the earthquakes on the propagation of these signals. In 2011 the n...Since 2009 a network of VLF (20 - 60 kHz) and LF (150 - 300 kHz) radio receivers is operating in Europe in order to study the disturbances produced by the earthquakes on the propagation of these signals. In 2011 the network was formed by nine receivers, of which three are located in Italy and one is in Austria, Greece, Portugal, Romania, Russia and Turkey. On May 19, 2001 an earthquake (Mw = 5.7) occurred in western Turkey, that is inside the “sensitive” area of the network. The radio data collected during April-May 2011 were studied using the Wavelet spectra, the Principal Component Analysis and the Standard Deviation trends as different methods of analysis. Evident anomalies were revealed both in the signals broadcasted by the TRT transmitter (180 kHz) located near Ankara and in a VLF signal coming from a transmitter located in Western Europe and collected by the receiver TUR of the network located in eastern Turkey. Evident precursor phases were pointed out. Some differences in the efficiency of the three analysis methods were revealed.展开更多
The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly ...The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly with the result around 0.1 Hz which was inferred from the earthquake depth according to the skin effect, and found that 0.1 Hz is more proper to detect the ULF anomaly for both earthquakes studied in this paper.展开更多
The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital...The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14：00 o＇clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of -10^4 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi＇an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.展开更多
We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake of Ma...We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011. The data include outgoing long wave radiation （OLR）, GPS/TEC, lower Earth orbit ionospheric tomography and critical frequency foF2. Our first results show that on March 7th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere also there was confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. The joint preliminary analysis of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake has revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere/ionosphere to the great Tohoku earthquake.展开更多
Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predic...Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predictive model for normal data.Furthermore,the prediction errors from the predictive models are used to indicate normal or abnormal behavior.An additional advantage of using the LSTM networks is that the earthquake precursor data can be directly fed into the network without any elaborate preprocessing as required by other approaches.Furthermore,no prior information on abnormal data is needed by these networks as they are trained only using normal data.Experiments using three groups of real data were conducted to compare the anomaly detection results of the proposed method with those of manual recognition.The comparison results indicated that the proposed LSTM network achieves promising results and is viable for detecting anomalies in earthquake precursor data.展开更多
Ionospheric TEC （total electron content） time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile an...Ionospheric TEC （total electron content） time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility ofTEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.展开更多
Several days before the MsT. 0 Lushan earthquake, the YRY-4 borehole Strainmeter at Guza Station recorded prominent abnormal changes. The strain anomalies are very striking on the smooth background of several years＇ ...Several days before the MsT. 0 Lushan earthquake, the YRY-4 borehole Strainmeter at Guza Station recorded prominent abnormal changes. The strain anomalies are very striking on the smooth background of several years＇ recording after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, because construction in the town of Guza has been undergoing rapid development in recent years, many factors have interfered with observations at the station. Whether or not the observed strain changes before the Lushan earthquake were affected by any of the sources of interference becomes a question that must be answered. Among the likely sources of interference, apartment construction, sportsground reconstruction, and tunnel cutting can be excluded by analyzing the morphological characteristic of the anomalies. The two remaining most possible sources are road construction in front of the station and the water level change of the nearby Dadu River caused by water filling into and discharging from an upstream reservoir. Through field investigation, comparison of the correlation between the strain and the seismographic recordings, comparison of the correlation between the strain and the Dadu River flow recordings, and analysis of the strain anomaly characteristics, we conclude that the abnormal changes observed at Guza Station cannot be attributed to either of these two sources but should be related to the Lushan earthquake.展开更多
Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satell...Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.展开更多
This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north pat of North China (113°~119°E, 38°~42°N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, ge...This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north pat of North China (113°~119°E, 38°~42°N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjust ment and so on by the software 'The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infra red Anomaly', inversed the each surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei M_s=6.2 earth quake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized. Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bobal seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.展开更多
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiv...This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables-precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, radon earth-surface concentration, the local heat flow, ionosphere variables, low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. The title demonstrates that only geomagnetic data are used in this study. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable SChtM with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Japan Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya INTERMAGNET stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is this with biggest value of the variable SChtM permits to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursor’s signals like a function of earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.展开更多
The field of neural network has found solid application in the past ten years and the field itself is still developing rapidly. Neural network is composed of many simple elements operating in parallel. A neural netwo...The field of neural network has found solid application in the past ten years and the field itself is still developing rapidly. Neural network is composed of many simple elements operating in parallel. A neural network can be trained to perform a particular mapping and this is the basis of its application to practical problems. In this paper, new methods for predicting the strong earthquakes are presented based on neural network. Neural network learns from existing earthquake sequences or earthquake precursors how to make medium and short term prediction of strong earthquakes. This paper describes two neural network prediction models. One is the model based on earthquake evolution sequences, which is applied to the modeling of the magnitude evolution sequences in the Mainland of China, the other is based on earthquake precursors, which is applied to the modeling of the occurrence time of strong earthquakes in North China. Test results show that the prediction methods based on neural networks are efficient, and convenient. They would find more application in the future.展开更多
文摘We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.
基金State Natural Science Foundation of China (19973011).
文摘It has been primarily confirmed that before the occurrence of a middle or major earthquake, anomalies in the residuals of universal time and latitude measurements obtained by astrometric observations may appear. We investigate the relation between the residual anomalies and the three key factors of an earthquake. To build a network of observational sites so as to obtain data of residuals of universal time and latitude from multi-instruments would be of certain significance for determining three key factors of an earthquake, especially for positioning epicenter. The data from multi-instruments would also be valuable for studies of the variation of the vertical. It is proposed to manufacture potable and high-accuracy astrometric instruments and to build observational network to obtain anomalies of universal time and latitude in the regions with high earthquake uprising possibilities.
基金funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP7/20017-2013)under grant agreement No.263502- -PRE-EARTHQUAKES project:Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthquake precursors studies
文摘The system of geophysical shells （lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere） is considered as an open complex nonlinear system with dissipation where earthquake preparation could be regarded as a self-organizing process leading to the critical state of the system. The processes in atmosphere and ionosphere are considered from the point of view of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The intensive ionization of boundary layer of atmosphere （probably provided by radon in occasion of earthquake preparation） gives start to the synergetic sequence of coupling processes where the ionosphere and even magnetosphere are the last links in the chain of interactions. Every anomaly observed in different geophysical fields （surface temperature, latent heat flux, electromagnetic emissions, variations in ionosphere, particle precipitation, etc.） is not considered as an individual process but the part of the self-organizing process, the final goal of which is the reaching of the point of the maximum entropy. Radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake is considered as a perfect example to satisfy the formal seismological determination of the earthquake precursor. What is genetically connected with radon through the ionization process can also be regarded as a precursor. The problem of co-seismic variations of the discussed parameters of atmosphere and ionosphere is considered as well.
基金Chinese Joint Earthquake Sciences Foundation (9507435).
文摘Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multi-point strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using Cv value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of Cv value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of Cv value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. Cv value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when Cv value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that Cv value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40274013) and MOST Project (2001BA601B02).
文摘Statistical properties of reported earthquake precursors show apparent focal mechanism dependence. Intensity of anomaly is described by the ′anomaly ratio′ as defined by the number of stations/items reporting anomalies before the target earthquake over the number of stations/items in operation around the target earthquake. Variation of the ′anomaly ratio′ with the magnitude of the target earthquake was studied for dip-slip earthquakes all over China, strike-slip earthquakes in eastern China, and strike-slip earthquakes in western China, respectively. It is observed that for strike-slip earthquakes, the ′anomaly ratio′ increases linearly with the magnitude of the target earthquake, while earthquakes in eastern China and western China have different slopes. For dip-slip earthquakes, however, the ′anomaly ratio′ has no statistically significant change with the magnitude of the target earthquake. Limited data imply that the ′anomaly ratio′ seems proportional to the apparent stress of the target earthquake. The result might be heuristic for the analysis of candidate earthquake precursors.
文摘The recent argument about nucleation phase of earthquakes reminds us to completely study the concept of earthquake nucleation. The original meaning of nucleation includes concentration, nucleation and initiation of the eruptive processes. Thus, it is needed to discuss how to exactly translate the word 'nucleation' into Chinese in different fields. The basic concept of earthquake nucleation refers to microcrack concentration in rock. It causes local weakening and instability of the rock. The narrow sense of nucleation theory of friction constitutive is significant in friction of fault surfaces, but should not abuse everywhere unconditionally. In terms of thermodynamics, nucleation actually means the variety processes of multiple state parameters of rock. The nucleation is a project that covers multiple courses. In this paper, the studies of damage theory, fracture, earthquake rupture dynamics and constitutive of friction and their implication to earthquake nucleation are remarked. The recently developments are introduced, including the influence of tectonic on the earthquake nucleation process, the method of measuring medium anisotropy, especially shear wave splitting led by concentration and orientation of microcracks. and the experimental study of remote sensing of infrared and microwave radiation related to the nucleation, etc. This paper also discusses the characteristic of large earthquake nucleation, and the implication of above studies to precursors of Strong earthquakes.
文摘The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes by the geomagnetic method. The geomagnetic method is widely used on this problem in seismically active regions of the world as one of the promising, informative and operational geophysical methods. The results of long-term geomagnetic studies on the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes in Uzbekistan are presented. Geomagnetic studies were carried out on the territories of the Tashkent, Ferghana, and Kyzylkum geodynamic polygons in the epicentral zones of strong earthquakes that occurred. Long-term, medium- and short-term precursors of earthquakes have been identified. Anomalous changes in the geomagnetic field associated with the decline in aftershock activity were also revealed. The dependence between the duration of the manifestation of long-term magnetic precursors and the magnitude of earthquakes is determined. Absolute proton magnetometers MMP-1, MV-01 (Russia), and G-856 (USA) were used to measure the geomagnetic field.
文摘We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The main idea is as follows. The distribution of the electric field around a thundercloud depends on the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Quasi-static electric fields of a thundercloud decrease in those tropospheric regions where an increase of air conductivity is generated by pre-seismic activities due to emanation of radioactive gas and water into the lower atmosphere. The electric field becomes reduced in the lower troposphere, and the probability decreases of the cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in such “contaminated” areas. Simultaneously, the electric field grows inside and above the thunderclouds, and hence, we anticipate a growth in the number of horizontal and tilted inter-cloud (or intra-cloud) (both termed as IC discharges) strokes. Spatial orientation of lightning strokes reduces vertical projection of their individual amplitudes, while the rate (median number strokes per a unit time) of discharges grows. We demonstrate that channel tilt of strokes modifies the spectral content of ELF/VLF radio noise and changes the rate of detected pulses during the earthquake preparation phase.
文摘This paper deals with the fuzzy information processing method in the research of the relationship between two variables or among multi-variables, with the undetermined or fuzzy features, different from that in the traditional statistical method. The reliability and effectiveness of the method have been tested and confirmed in the numerical simulation for a set of man-made data of precursory anomalous parameters and earthquake elements. Finally the relation between the actual monthly frequency of small earthquakes occurring in Huoshan, Anhui Province, China and the magnitude of future stronger earthquakes, as two variables, has been analyzed by the method. It seems to the authors that more reasonable and perfect results could be given with a quantitative analysis of accession degree in fuzzy mathematics by using this method than that of traditional statistical correlation analysis.
基金partially supported by Foundation of the Cassa di Risparmio di Puglia bank(F.C.R.P.,Bari,Italy).
文摘Since 2009 a network of VLF (20 - 60 kHz) and LF (150 - 300 kHz) radio receivers is operating in Europe in order to study the disturbances produced by the earthquakes on the propagation of these signals. In 2011 the network was formed by nine receivers, of which three are located in Italy and one is in Austria, Greece, Portugal, Romania, Russia and Turkey. On May 19, 2001 an earthquake (Mw = 5.7) occurred in western Turkey, that is inside the “sensitive” area of the network. The radio data collected during April-May 2011 were studied using the Wavelet spectra, the Principal Component Analysis and the Standard Deviation trends as different methods of analysis. Evident anomalies were revealed both in the signals broadcasted by the TRT transmitter (180 kHz) located near Ankara and in a VLF signal coming from a transmitter located in Western Europe and collected by the receiver TUR of the network located in eastern Turkey. Evident precursor phases were pointed out. Some differences in the efficiency of the three analysis methods were revealed.
基金financially supported by the Special Project for Earthquake Research(200708033)
文摘The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly with the result around 0.1 Hz which was inferred from the earthquake depth according to the skin effect, and found that 0.1 Hz is more proper to detect the ULF anomaly for both earthquakes studied in this paper.
基金supported by the fundamental research fund of Institute of Crustal Dynamics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.ZDJ2008-33)
文摘The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14：00 o＇clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of -10^4 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi＇an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.
基金NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,Chapman University and European Framework program #7 project PREEARTHQUAKE for their kind support
文摘We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011. The data include outgoing long wave radiation （OLR）, GPS/TEC, lower Earth orbit ionospheric tomography and critical frequency foF2. Our first results show that on March 7th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere also there was confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. The joint preliminary analysis of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake has revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere/ionosphere to the great Tohoku earthquake.
基金supported by the Science for Earthquake Resilience of China(No.XH18027)Research and Development of Comprehensive Geophysical Field Observing Instrument in China's Mainland(No.Y201703)Research Fund Project of Shandong Earthquake Agency(Nos.JJ1505Y and JJ1602)
文摘Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predictive model for normal data.Furthermore,the prediction errors from the predictive models are used to indicate normal or abnormal behavior.An additional advantage of using the LSTM networks is that the earthquake precursor data can be directly fed into the network without any elaborate preprocessing as required by other approaches.Furthermore,no prior information on abnormal data is needed by these networks as they are trained only using normal data.Experiments using three groups of real data were conducted to compare the anomaly detection results of the proposed method with those of manual recognition.The comparison results indicated that the proposed LSTM network achieves promising results and is viable for detecting anomalies in earthquake precursor data.
基金supported by the Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (2008BAC35B02)
文摘Ionospheric TEC （total electron content） time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility ofTEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Earthquake Research in the Public Interest(201108009)
文摘Several days before the MsT. 0 Lushan earthquake, the YRY-4 borehole Strainmeter at Guza Station recorded prominent abnormal changes. The strain anomalies are very striking on the smooth background of several years＇ recording after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, because construction in the town of Guza has been undergoing rapid development in recent years, many factors have interfered with observations at the station. Whether or not the observed strain changes before the Lushan earthquake were affected by any of the sources of interference becomes a question that must be answered. Among the likely sources of interference, apartment construction, sportsground reconstruction, and tunnel cutting can be excluded by analyzing the morphological characteristic of the anomalies. The two remaining most possible sources are road construction in front of the station and the water level change of the nearby Dadu River caused by water filling into and discharging from an upstream reservoir. Through field investigation, comparison of the correlation between the strain and the seismographic recordings, comparison of the correlation between the strain and the Dadu River flow recordings, and analysis of the strain anomaly characteristics, we conclude that the abnormal changes observed at Guza Station cannot be attributed to either of these two sources but should be related to the Lushan earthquake.
基金support from the Key Project of Hainan Province Scientific and Technical Plan(grant No.06701)
文摘Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.
文摘This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north pat of North China (113°~119°E, 38°~42°N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjust ment and so on by the software 'The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infra red Anomaly', inversed the each surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei M_s=6.2 earth quake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized. Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bobal seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.
文摘This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables-precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, radon earth-surface concentration, the local heat flow, ionosphere variables, low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. The title demonstrates that only geomagnetic data are used in this study. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable SChtM with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Japan Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya INTERMAGNET stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is this with biggest value of the variable SChtM permits to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursor’s signals like a function of earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.
文摘The field of neural network has found solid application in the past ten years and the field itself is still developing rapidly. Neural network is composed of many simple elements operating in parallel. A neural network can be trained to perform a particular mapping and this is the basis of its application to practical problems. In this paper, new methods for predicting the strong earthquakes are presented based on neural network. Neural network learns from existing earthquake sequences or earthquake precursors how to make medium and short term prediction of strong earthquakes. This paper describes two neural network prediction models. One is the model based on earthquake evolution sequences, which is applied to the modeling of the magnitude evolution sequences in the Mainland of China, the other is based on earthquake precursors, which is applied to the modeling of the occurrence time of strong earthquakes in North China. Test results show that the prediction methods based on neural networks are efficient, and convenient. They would find more application in the future.
