With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in differe...With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in different scenarios,and the phenomenon of diminishing marginal benefits of energy storage is becoming more apparent.Therefore,themulti-dimensional value evolution trend of energy storage has become a key issue.This study selects indicators from three dimensions of energy storage:low-carbon emission reduction,smoothing wind and solar power fluctuations,and saving generation costs,quantifying the economic,environmental,and technical values of energy storage.This forms a quantitative evaluation system for energy storage value.By comparing the calculated system values under different energy storage capacities,the marginal value evolution trend of energy storage is obtained.Meanwhile,considering factors such as the utilization rate of renewable energy,the change in energy storage value under different scenarios is analyzed.The results show that the value of long-duration energy storage is significantly affected by the energy storage capacity.Specifically,when the charge-discharge efficiency of longduration energy storage reaches 0.6 or above,the system value increases significantly.Additionally,appropriately reducing the cost of energy storage capacity also helps to improve its system value.展开更多
In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be see...In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be seen as a repeated game between members of the travelers.Based on the analysis of this game and its evolution trend,a multi-dimensional game model of low-carbon travel for residents is established.The two dimensional game strategies include whether to accept the low-carbon concept and whether to choose low-carbon travel.Combined with evolutionary game theory,the low-carbon travel choices of residents in different cities are simulated,and the evolutionary stability strategies are obtained.Finally,the influences of the main parameters of the model on the evolution process and stability strategies are discussed.The results show that travelers would develop towards two trends.Cities with more developed public traffic system have a higher proportion of receiving low-carbon concept and choosing low-carbon travel.Cities with underdeveloped public transport system could increase this proportion by some measures such as encouraging residents to choose slow transport and increasing the propaganda of low-carbon travel,but the positive effects of the measures like propaganda have a limited impact on the proportion.展开更多
The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition o...The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition of the major powers further focuses on the manufacturing industry.Developed countries such as the United States,Germany,and Japan have successively put forward strategic plans such as“re-industrialization”and“return of manufacturing industry”,aiming to seize the commanding heights of a new round of global high-end technology competition and expand international market share.Standing at the historic intersection of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and China's accelerated high-quality development,the“14th Five-Year Plan”clearly pointed out that intelligent manufacturing is the main development trend to promote China's manufacturing to the medium-high end of the global value chain.This reflects the importance of advanced manufacturing for national strategic layout.To better grasp the development direction of advanced manufacturing equipment,the development process and current application status of manufacturing equipment are summarized,and thereafter the characteristics of manufacturing equipment in different development stages of the manufacturing industry are analyzed.Finally,the development trend of advanced milling equipment is prospected.展开更多
It is urgent and important to explore the dynamic evolution in comprehensive transportation green efficiency(CTGE)in the context of green development.We constructed a social development index that reflects the social ...It is urgent and important to explore the dynamic evolution in comprehensive transportation green efficiency(CTGE)in the context of green development.We constructed a social development index that reflects the social benefits of transportation services,and incorporated it into the comprehensive transportation efficiency evaluation framework as an expected output.Based on the panel data of 30 regions in China from 2003-2018,the CTGE in China was measured using the slacks-based measure-data envelopment analysis(SBM-DEA)model.Further,the dynamic evolution trends of CTGE were determined using the spatial Markov model and exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis(ESTDA)technique from a spatio-temporal perspective.The results showed that the CTGE shows a U-shaped change trend but with an overall low level and significant regional differences.The state transition of CTGE has a strong spatial dependence,and there exists the phenomenon of“club convergence”.Neighbourhood background has a significant impact on the CTGE transition types,and the spatial spillover effect is pronounced.The CTGE has an obvious positive correlation and spatial agglomeration characteristics.The geometric characteristics of the LISA time path show that the evolution process of local spatial structure and local spatial dependence of China’s CTGE is stable,but the integration of spatial evolution is weak.The spatio-temporal transition results of LISA indicate that the CTGE has obvious transfer inertness and has certain path-dependence and spatial locking characteristics,which will become the major difficulty in improving the CTGE.展开更多
This paper selects Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan as examples and builds a database based on the statistics of the ? fth and sixth national population censuses and the latest statistics of aging population co...This paper selects Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan as examples and builds a database based on the statistics of the ? fth and sixth national population censuses and the latest statistics of aging population collected by ministries and commissions of the Central Government and local departments, as well as by our research team from 2000 to 2010. With its data unit accurate to Jiedao~① level, it is the ? rst time to analyze the micro-level spatial distribution characteristics of the aging population in China's mega cities in comparison with research accomplishments in geography, which lays a foundation for further relevant studies and strategy formulation. The paper draws spatial distribution maps of the aging population in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan by Geograpic Information System(GIS), and uses Aging Degree Index and Population Gravitational Center respectively to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and spatial evolution trends of aging population in these mega cities. The research indicates that, on the one hand, the spatial distribution of the aging population shows similar characteristics with that of developed countries when they were at the same urbanization level, especially with Japan which shares a cultural homology with China; on the other hand, it is greatly in? uenced by the distribution of af? liated residential space of large industrial sectors, enterprises, and research institutes under the early planned economic system. There are two trends: one is centrifugal spread, namely, the elderly are moving from the city center to the outside; the other is centripetal concentration, namely, the elderly who lived in the outer suburbs are moving towards the city center. These phenomena, such as centripetal concentration, suburban spread, exurban concentration, and socio-spatial differentiation of urban aging population, are driven by selective development in the city center, city function upgrading, re-hollowing of villages, and occupation and income differentiation of the elderly before retirement.展开更多
On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the concept...On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the conception of ratio of peak runoff. Main characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang are as follows： 1） The western Zhejiang region is plum rain major control area, and the eastern coastal region of Zhejiang is typhoon major control area. 2） Within a long period in the future, Zhejiang will be in the long period that features droughts. 3） In Zhejiang the 17th century was frequent drought and flood period, the 16th, 19th, and 20th centuries were normal periods, while the 18th century was spasmodic drought and flood period. 4） The severe and medium floods in Zhejiang were all centered around the M-or m-year of the 11-year sunspot activity period. 5） There are biggish years of annual runoff occurred in E1 Nifio year （E） or the following year （E＋1） in Zhejiang. The near future evolution trend of droughts and floods in Zhejiang is as follows： 1） Within a relatively long period in the future, Zhejiang Province will be in the long period of mostly drought years. 2） Between 1999 and 2009 this area will feature drought years mainly, while the period of 2010-2020 will feature flood years mostly. 3） Zhejiang has a good response to the sunspot activities, and the years around 2009, 2015, and 2020 must be given due attention, especially around 2020 there might be an extremely severe flood year in Zhejiang. 4） Floods in Zhejiang have good response to El Nifio events, in El Nifio year or the following year much attention must be paid to. And 5） In the future, the first, second, and third severe typhoon years in Zhejiang will be 2009. 2012. and 2015. resnectivelv.展开更多
The Loess Plateau of China has experienced a lengthy drought and severe soil erosion.Changes in precipitation and land use largely determine the dynamics of runoff and sediment yield in this region. Trend and mutation...The Loess Plateau of China has experienced a lengthy drought and severe soil erosion.Changes in precipitation and land use largely determine the dynamics of runoff and sediment yield in this region. Trend and mutation analyses were performed on hydrological data(1981–2012) from the Yanwachuan watershed in the Loess Plateau Gully Region to study the evolution characteristics of runoff and sediment yield. A time-series contrasting method also was used to evaluate the effects of precipitation and soil and water conservation(SWC) on runoff and sediment yield. Annual sediment yield declined markedly from 1981 to 2012 although there was no significant change in annual precipitation and annual runoff. Change points of annual runoff and annual sediment yield occurred in 1996 and 1997,respectively. Compared with that in the baseline period(1981–1996), annual runoff and annual sediment yield in the change period(1997–2012)decreased by 17.0% and 76.0%, respectively, but annual precipitation increased by 6.3%. Runoff decreased in the flood season and normal season, but increased in the dry season, while sediment yield significantly declined in the whole study period. The SWC measures contributed significantly to the reduction of annual runoff(137.9%) and annual sediment yield(135%) and were more important than precipitation. Biological measures(forestland and grassland) accounted for 61.04% of total runoff reduction, while engineering measures(terraces and dams) accounted for 102.84% of total sediment yield reduction. Furthermore, SWC measures had positive ecological effects. This study provides a scientific basis for soil erosion control on the Loess Plateau.展开更多
The morphological changing trend of the Yangtze Estuary, the largest estuary of Asia, has become a focus of research in recent years. Based on a long series of topographic data from 1950 to 2015, this paper studied th...The morphological changing trend of the Yangtze Estuary, the largest estuary of Asia, has become a focus of research in recent years. Based on a long series of topographic data from 1950 to 2015, this paper studied the erosion-deposition pattern of the entire Yangtze Estuary. An alternation between erosion and deposition was found during the past 65 years, which was in correspondence to the alternation between flood and dry periods identified by multi-year average duration days of high-level water flow (defined as discharge ≥ 60,000 m<sup>3</sup>/s, namely, D<sub>≥60,000</sub>) from the Yangtze River Basin. A quantitative relationship was further developed between the erosional/depositional rate of the Yangtze Estuary and the interpreting variables of yearly water discharge, D<sub>≥60,000</sub> and yearly river sediment load, with contributing rates of 1%, 59% and 40%, respectively. Mechanism behind the alternate erosion and deposition pattern was analyzed by examining residual water surface slope and the corresponding capacity of sediment transport in flood and dry periods. In flood periods, a larger discharge results in steeper slope of residual water level which permits a greater capacity of sediment transport. Therefore, more bed materials can be washed to the sea, leading to erosion of the estuary. In contrast, flatter slope of residual water level occurs in dry periods, and deposition dominates the estuarine area due to the decreased capacity of sediment transport and the increased backwater effect of flood-tide. Coastal dynamics and estuarine engineering projects alter the local morphological changes, but slightly affect the total erosional/depositional rate of the whole estuarine region. Heavy sedimentation within the Yangtze Estuary after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam can be attributed to the reduced occurrence frequency of flood years due to water regulation by the dam, and largely (at least 36%-52%) sourced from the sea. Deposition is still possible to occur in the Yangtze Estuary in the future, because the multi-year average D<sub>≥60,000</sub> is unlikely to exceed the critical value of 14 days/yr which corresponds to the future equilibrium state of the Yangtze Estuary, under the water regulation of the large cascade dams in the upper Yangtze. Nevertheless, the mean depositional rate will not surpass the peak value of the past years, since the total sediment load entering the Yangtze Estuary has presented a decreasing trend.展开更多
基金supported financially by Thematic Project of the State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Company Limited Economic Research Institute under Grant SGLNJY00GHJS2310109.
文摘With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in different scenarios,and the phenomenon of diminishing marginal benefits of energy storage is becoming more apparent.Therefore,themulti-dimensional value evolution trend of energy storage has become a key issue.This study selects indicators from three dimensions of energy storage:low-carbon emission reduction,smoothing wind and solar power fluctuations,and saving generation costs,quantifying the economic,environmental,and technical values of energy storage.This forms a quantitative evaluation system for energy storage value.By comparing the calculated system values under different energy storage capacities,the marginal value evolution trend of energy storage is obtained.Meanwhile,considering factors such as the utilization rate of renewable energy,the change in energy storage value under different scenarios is analyzed.The results show that the value of long-duration energy storage is significantly affected by the energy storage capacity.Specifically,when the charge-discharge efficiency of longduration energy storage reaches 0.6 or above,the system value increases significantly.Additionally,appropriately reducing the cost of energy storage capacity also helps to improve its system value.
基金Project(BK20160512)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,ChinaProject(16YJCZH027)supported by the Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of ChinaProject(15GLC004)supported by the Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China
文摘In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be seen as a repeated game between members of the travelers.Based on the analysis of this game and its evolution trend,a multi-dimensional game model of low-carbon travel for residents is established.The two dimensional game strategies include whether to accept the low-carbon concept and whether to choose low-carbon travel.Combined with evolutionary game theory,the low-carbon travel choices of residents in different cities are simulated,and the evolutionary stability strategies are obtained.Finally,the influences of the main parameters of the model on the evolution process and stability strategies are discussed.The results show that travelers would develop towards two trends.Cities with more developed public traffic system have a higher proportion of receiving low-carbon concept and choosing low-carbon travel.Cities with underdeveloped public transport system could increase this proportion by some measures such as encouraging residents to choose slow transport and increasing the propaganda of low-carbon travel,but the positive effects of the measures like propaganda have a limited impact on the proportion.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.92148301)。
文摘The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition of the major powers further focuses on the manufacturing industry.Developed countries such as the United States,Germany,and Japan have successively put forward strategic plans such as“re-industrialization”and“return of manufacturing industry”,aiming to seize the commanding heights of a new round of global high-end technology competition and expand international market share.Standing at the historic intersection of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and China's accelerated high-quality development,the“14th Five-Year Plan”clearly pointed out that intelligent manufacturing is the main development trend to promote China's manufacturing to the medium-high end of the global value chain.This reflects the importance of advanced manufacturing for national strategic layout.To better grasp the development direction of advanced manufacturing equipment,the development process and current application status of manufacturing equipment are summarized,and thereafter the characteristics of manufacturing equipment in different development stages of the manufacturing industry are analyzed.Finally,the development trend of advanced milling equipment is prospected.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFB1600400)National Natural Science Foundation of China(72174035)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(71774018)Liaoning Revitalization Talents Program(XLYC2008030)Liaoning Provincial Natural Science Foundation Shipping Joint Foundation Program(2020-HYLH-20)。
文摘It is urgent and important to explore the dynamic evolution in comprehensive transportation green efficiency(CTGE)in the context of green development.We constructed a social development index that reflects the social benefits of transportation services,and incorporated it into the comprehensive transportation efficiency evaluation framework as an expected output.Based on the panel data of 30 regions in China from 2003-2018,the CTGE in China was measured using the slacks-based measure-data envelopment analysis(SBM-DEA)model.Further,the dynamic evolution trends of CTGE were determined using the spatial Markov model and exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis(ESTDA)technique from a spatio-temporal perspective.The results showed that the CTGE shows a U-shaped change trend but with an overall low level and significant regional differences.The state transition of CTGE has a strong spatial dependence,and there exists the phenomenon of“club convergence”.Neighbourhood background has a significant impact on the CTGE transition types,and the spatial spillover effect is pronounced.The CTGE has an obvious positive correlation and spatial agglomeration characteristics.The geometric characteristics of the LISA time path show that the evolution process of local spatial structure and local spatial dependence of China’s CTGE is stable,but the integration of spatial evolution is weak.The spatio-temporal transition results of LISA indicate that the CTGE has obvious transfer inertness and has certain path-dependence and spatial locking characteristics,which will become the major difficulty in improving the CTGE.
基金sponsored by Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51178357,51308423)and adapted based on the keynote speech in the Annual National Planning Conference 2013
文摘This paper selects Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan as examples and builds a database based on the statistics of the ? fth and sixth national population censuses and the latest statistics of aging population collected by ministries and commissions of the Central Government and local departments, as well as by our research team from 2000 to 2010. With its data unit accurate to Jiedao~① level, it is the ? rst time to analyze the micro-level spatial distribution characteristics of the aging population in China's mega cities in comparison with research accomplishments in geography, which lays a foundation for further relevant studies and strategy formulation. The paper draws spatial distribution maps of the aging population in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan by Geograpic Information System(GIS), and uses Aging Degree Index and Population Gravitational Center respectively to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and spatial evolution trends of aging population in these mega cities. The research indicates that, on the one hand, the spatial distribution of the aging population shows similar characteristics with that of developed countries when they were at the same urbanization level, especially with Japan which shares a cultural homology with China; on the other hand, it is greatly in? uenced by the distribution of af? liated residential space of large industrial sectors, enterprises, and research institutes under the early planned economic system. There are two trends: one is centrifugal spread, namely, the elderly are moving from the city center to the outside; the other is centripetal concentration, namely, the elderly who lived in the outer suburbs are moving towards the city center. These phenomena, such as centripetal concentration, suburban spread, exurban concentration, and socio-spatial differentiation of urban aging population, are driven by selective development in the city center, city function upgrading, re-hollowing of villages, and occupation and income differentiation of the elderly before retirement.
基金Under the auspices of Zhejiang Provincial ScienceTechnology Foundation of China(No.2006C23066)
文摘On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the conception of ratio of peak runoff. Main characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang are as follows： 1） The western Zhejiang region is plum rain major control area, and the eastern coastal region of Zhejiang is typhoon major control area. 2） Within a long period in the future, Zhejiang will be in the long period that features droughts. 3） In Zhejiang the 17th century was frequent drought and flood period, the 16th, 19th, and 20th centuries were normal periods, while the 18th century was spasmodic drought and flood period. 4） The severe and medium floods in Zhejiang were all centered around the M-or m-year of the 11-year sunspot activity period. 5） There are biggish years of annual runoff occurred in E1 Nifio year （E） or the following year （E＋1） in Zhejiang. The near future evolution trend of droughts and floods in Zhejiang is as follows： 1） Within a relatively long period in the future, Zhejiang Province will be in the long period of mostly drought years. 2） Between 1999 and 2009 this area will feature drought years mainly, while the period of 2010-2020 will feature flood years mostly. 3） Zhejiang has a good response to the sunspot activities, and the years around 2009, 2015, and 2020 must be given due attention, especially around 2020 there might be an extremely severe flood year in Zhejiang. 4） Floods in Zhejiang have good response to El Nifio events, in El Nifio year or the following year much attention must be paid to. And 5） In the future, the first, second, and third severe typhoon years in Zhejiang will be 2009. 2012. and 2015. resnectivelv.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51239009, 41171034)Shaanxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Key) Project (2013JZ012)+1 种基金Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory Project of Department of Education (14JS059)Shaanxi Provincial Water Conservancy Science and Technology Project (2016slkj-11)
文摘The Loess Plateau of China has experienced a lengthy drought and severe soil erosion.Changes in precipitation and land use largely determine the dynamics of runoff and sediment yield in this region. Trend and mutation analyses were performed on hydrological data(1981–2012) from the Yanwachuan watershed in the Loess Plateau Gully Region to study the evolution characteristics of runoff and sediment yield. A time-series contrasting method also was used to evaluate the effects of precipitation and soil and water conservation(SWC) on runoff and sediment yield. Annual sediment yield declined markedly from 1981 to 2012 although there was no significant change in annual precipitation and annual runoff. Change points of annual runoff and annual sediment yield occurred in 1996 and 1997,respectively. Compared with that in the baseline period(1981–1996), annual runoff and annual sediment yield in the change period(1997–2012)decreased by 17.0% and 76.0%, respectively, but annual precipitation increased by 6.3%. Runoff decreased in the flood season and normal season, but increased in the dry season, while sediment yield significantly declined in the whole study period. The SWC measures contributed significantly to the reduction of annual runoff(137.9%) and annual sediment yield(135%) and were more important than precipitation. Biological measures(forestland and grassland) accounted for 61.04% of total runoff reduction, while engineering measures(terraces and dams) accounted for 102.84% of total sediment yield reduction. Furthermore, SWC measures had positive ecological effects. This study provides a scientific basis for soil erosion control on the Loess Plateau.
基金Youth Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41601275Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Water-Sediment Sciences and Water Disaster Prevention of Hunan Province,No.2019SS06Scientific Research Key Project in Hunan Province Education Department,No.2014A006。
文摘The morphological changing trend of the Yangtze Estuary, the largest estuary of Asia, has become a focus of research in recent years. Based on a long series of topographic data from 1950 to 2015, this paper studied the erosion-deposition pattern of the entire Yangtze Estuary. An alternation between erosion and deposition was found during the past 65 years, which was in correspondence to the alternation between flood and dry periods identified by multi-year average duration days of high-level water flow (defined as discharge ≥ 60,000 m<sup>3</sup>/s, namely, D<sub>≥60,000</sub>) from the Yangtze River Basin. A quantitative relationship was further developed between the erosional/depositional rate of the Yangtze Estuary and the interpreting variables of yearly water discharge, D<sub>≥60,000</sub> and yearly river sediment load, with contributing rates of 1%, 59% and 40%, respectively. Mechanism behind the alternate erosion and deposition pattern was analyzed by examining residual water surface slope and the corresponding capacity of sediment transport in flood and dry periods. In flood periods, a larger discharge results in steeper slope of residual water level which permits a greater capacity of sediment transport. Therefore, more bed materials can be washed to the sea, leading to erosion of the estuary. In contrast, flatter slope of residual water level occurs in dry periods, and deposition dominates the estuarine area due to the decreased capacity of sediment transport and the increased backwater effect of flood-tide. Coastal dynamics and estuarine engineering projects alter the local morphological changes, but slightly affect the total erosional/depositional rate of the whole estuarine region. Heavy sedimentation within the Yangtze Estuary after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam can be attributed to the reduced occurrence frequency of flood years due to water regulation by the dam, and largely (at least 36%-52%) sourced from the sea. Deposition is still possible to occur in the Yangtze Estuary in the future, because the multi-year average D<sub>≥60,000</sub> is unlikely to exceed the critical value of 14 days/yr which corresponds to the future equilibrium state of the Yangtze Estuary, under the water regulation of the large cascade dams in the upper Yangtze. Nevertheless, the mean depositional rate will not surpass the peak value of the past years, since the total sediment load entering the Yangtze Estuary has presented a decreasing trend.
