Based on modeling principle of GM（1,1）model and linear regression model,a combined prediction model is established to predict equipment fault by the fitting of two models.The new prediction model takes full advantag...Based on modeling principle of GM（1,1）model and linear regression model,a combined prediction model is established to predict equipment fault by the fitting of two models.The new prediction model takes full advantage of prediction information provided by the two models and improves the prediction precision.Finally,this model is introduced to predict the system fault time according to the output voltages of a certain type of radar transmitter.展开更多
This paper combines grey model with time series model and then dynamic model for rapid and in-depth fault prediction in chemical processes. Two combination methods are proposed. In one method, historical data is intro...This paper combines grey model with time series model and then dynamic model for rapid and in-depth fault prediction in chemical processes. Two combination methods are proposed. In one method, historical data is introduced into the grey time series model to predict future trend of measurement values in chemical process. These predicted measurements are then used in the dynamic model to retrieve the change of fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. In another method, historical data is introduced directly into the dynamic model to retrieve historical fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. These parameters are then predicted by the grey time series model. The two methods are applied to a gravity tank example. The case study demonstrates that the first method is more accurate for fault prediction.展开更多
Early fault warning for nuclear power machinery is conducive to timely troubleshooting and reductions in safety risks and unnecessary costs. This paper presents a novel intelligent fault prediction method, integrated ...Early fault warning for nuclear power machinery is conducive to timely troubleshooting and reductions in safety risks and unnecessary costs. This paper presents a novel intelligent fault prediction method, integrated probabilistic principal component analysis(PPCA), multi-resolution wavelet analysis, Bayesian inference, and RNN model for nuclear power machinery that consider data uncertainty and chaotic time series. After denoising the source data, the Bayesian PPCA method is employed for dimensional reduction to obtain a refined data group. A recurrent neural network(RNN) prediction model is constructed, and a Bayesian statistical inference approach is developed to quantitatively assess the prediction reliability of the model. By modeling and analyzing the data collected on the steam turbine and components of a nuclear power plant, the results of the goodness of fit, mean square error distribution, and Bayesian confidence indicate that the proposed RNN model can implement early warning in the fault creep period. The accuracy and reliability of the proposed model are quantitatively verified.展开更多
Fighters and other complex engineering systems have many characteristics such as difficult modeling and testing, multiple working situations, and high cost. Aim at these points, a new kind of real-time fault predictor...Fighters and other complex engineering systems have many characteristics such as difficult modeling and testing, multiple working situations, and high cost. Aim at these points, a new kind of real-time fault predictor is designed based on an improved k-nearest neighbor method, which needs neither the math model of system nc, the training data and prior knowledge. It can study and predict while system＇s running, so that it can overcome the difficulty of data acquirement. Besides, this predictor has a fast prediction speed, and the false alarm rate and missing alarm rate can be adjusted randomly. The method is simple and universalizable. The result of simulation on fighter F-16 proved the effidency.展开更多
Time-series prediction is one of the major methodologies used for fault prediction. The methods based on recurrent neural networks have been widely used in time-series prediction for their remarkable non-liner mapping...Time-series prediction is one of the major methodologies used for fault prediction. The methods based on recurrent neural networks have been widely used in time-series prediction for their remarkable non-liner mapping ability. As a new recurrent neural network, reservoir neural network can effectively process the time-series prediction. However, the ill-posedness problem of reservoir neural networks has seriously restricted the generalization performance. In this paper, a fault prediction algorithm based on time-series is proposed using improved reservoir neural networks. The basic idea is taking structure risk into consideration, that is, the cost function involves not only the experience risk factor but also the structure risk factor. Thus a regulation coefficient is introduced to calculate the output weight of the reservoir neural network. As a result, the amplitude of output weight is effectively controlled and the ill-posedness problem is solved. Because the training speed of ordinary reservoir networks is naturally fast, the improved reservoir networks for time-series prediction are good in speed and generalization ability. Experiments on Mackey–Glass and sunspot time series prediction prove the effectiveness of the algorithm. The proposed algorithm is applied to TE process fault prediction. We first forecast some timeseries obtained from TE and then predict the fault type adopting the static reservoirs with the predicted data.The final prediction correct rate reaches 81%.展开更多
The safety and reliability of mechatronics systems,particularly the high-end,large and key mechatronics equipment in service,can strongly influence on production efficiency,personnel safety,resources and environment.B...The safety and reliability of mechatronics systems,particularly the high-end,large and key mechatronics equipment in service,can strongly influence on production efficiency,personnel safety,resources and environment.Based on the demands of development of modern industries and technologies such as international industry 4.0,Made-in-China 2025 and Internet + and so on,this paper started from revealing the regularity of evolution of running state of equipment and the methods of signal processing of low signal noise ratio,proposed the key information technology of state monitoring and earlyfault-warning for equipment,put forward the typical technical line and major technical content,introduced the application of the technology to realize modern predictive maintenance of equipment and introduced the development of relevant safety monitoring instruments.The technology will play an important role in ensuring the safety of equipment in service,preventing accidents and realizing scientific maintenance.展开更多
Nowadays, the elevator has become an indispensable means of indoor transportation in people’s life, but in recent years this kind of traffic tools has caused many casualties because of the gate system fault. In order...Nowadays, the elevator has become an indispensable means of indoor transportation in people’s life, but in recent years this kind of traffic tools has caused many casualties because of the gate system fault. In order to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the elevator, the failure of elevator door system was predicted in this paper. Against the fault type of elevator door system: elevator door opened, excessive vibration when elevator door opened or closed, elevator door did not open or closed when reached the specified level. Three fault types were used as the output of the prediction model. There were 8 reasons for the failure, used them as input. A model based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and BP neural network was established, using MATLAB to emulation;the results showed that: PSO-BP neural network algorithm was feasible in the fault prediction of the elevator door system.展开更多
Inertial system platforms are a kind of important precision devices,which have the characteristics of difficult acquisition for state data and small sample scale.Focusing on the model optimization for data-driven faul...Inertial system platforms are a kind of important precision devices,which have the characteristics of difficult acquisition for state data and small sample scale.Focusing on the model optimization for data-driven fault state prediction and quantitative degreemeasurement,a fast small-sample supersphere one-class SVMmodelingmethod using support vectors pre-selection is systematically studied in this paper.By theorem-proving the irrelevance between themodel’s learning result and the non-support vectors(NSVs),the distribution characters of the support vectors are analyzed.On this basis,a modeling method with selected samples having specific geometry character fromthe training sets is also proposed.The method can remarkably eliminate theNSVs and improve the algorithm’s efficiency.The experimental results testify that the scale of training samples and the modeling time consumption both give a sharply decrease using the support vectors pre-selection method.The experimental results on inertial devices also show good fault prediction capability and effectiveness of quantitative anomaly measurement.展开更多
Turnout is one of the important signal infrastructure equipment,which will directly affect the safety and efficiency of driving.Base on analysis of the power curve of the turnout,we extract and select the time domain ...Turnout is one of the important signal infrastructure equipment,which will directly affect the safety and efficiency of driving.Base on analysis of the power curve of the turnout,we extract and select the time domain and Haar wavelet transform characteristics of the curve firstly.Then the correlation between the degradation state and the fault state is established by using the clustering algorithm and the Pearson correlation coefficient.Finally,the convolutional neural network(CNN)and the gated recurrent unit(GRU)are used to establish the state prediction model of the turnout to realize the failure prediction.The CNN can directly extract features from the original data of the turnout and reduce the dimension,which simplifies the prediction process.Due to its unique gate structure and time series processing features,GRU has certain advantages over the traditional forecasting methods in terms of prediction accuracy and time.The experimental results show that the accuracy of prediction can reach 94.2%when the feature matrix adopts 40-dimensional input and iterates 50 times.展开更多
Condition-based maintenance based on fault prediction has been widely concerned by the industry. Most of the contributions on fault prediction are based on various sensor data and mathematical models of the equipment....Condition-based maintenance based on fault prediction has been widely concerned by the industry. Most of the contributions on fault prediction are based on various sensor data and mathematical models of the equipment. The complexity of the model and data signal is the key factor affecting the practicability of the model. In addition, even for the same type and batch of equipment, the manufacturing process, operation environment and other factors also affect the model parameters. In this paper, a series event model is conducted to predict the fault of marine diesel engines. Numerical example illustrates that the proposed event model is feasible.展开更多
Software testing is an integral part of software development. Not only that testing exists in each software iteration cycle, but it also consumes a considerable amount of resources. While resources such as machinery a...Software testing is an integral part of software development. Not only that testing exists in each software iteration cycle, but it also consumes a considerable amount of resources. While resources such as machinery and manpower are often restricted, it is crucial to decide where and how much effort to put into testing. One way to address this problem is to identify which components of the subject under the test are more error-prone and thus demand more testing efforts. Recent development in machine learning techniques shows promising potential to predict faults in different components of a software system. This work conducts an empirical study to explore the feasibility of using static software metrics to predict software faults. We apply four machine learning techniques to construct fault prediction models from the PROMISE data set and evaluate the effectiveness of using static software metrics to build fault prediction models in four continuous versions of Apache Ant. The empirical results show that the combined software metrics generate the least misclassification errors. The fault prediction results vary significantly among different machine learning techniques and data set. Overall, fault prediction models built with the support vector machine (SVM) have the lowest misclassification errors.展开更多
Accurate fault prediction can obviously reduce cost and decrease the probability of accidents so as to improve the performance of the system testing and maintenance. Traditional fault prediction methods are always off...Accurate fault prediction can obviously reduce cost and decrease the probability of accidents so as to improve the performance of the system testing and maintenance. Traditional fault prediction methods are always offline that are not suitable for online and real-time processing. For the complicated nonlinear and non-stationary time series, it is hard to achieve exact predicting result with single models such as support vector regression （SVR）, artifieial neural network （ANN）, and autoregressive moving average （ARMA）. Combined with the accurate online support vector regression （AOSVR） algorithm and ARMA model, a new online approach is presented to forecast fault with time series prediction. The fault trend feature can be extracted by the AOSVR with global kernel for general fault modes. Moreover, its prediction residual that represents the local high-frequency components is synchronously revised and compensated by the sliding time window ARMA model. Fault prediction with combined AOSVR and ARMA can be realized better than with the single one. Experiments on Tennessee Eastman process fault data show the new method is practical and effective.展开更多
Class imbalance is a common characteristic of industrial data that adversely affects industrial data mining because it leads to the biased training of machine learning models.To address this issue,the augmentation of ...Class imbalance is a common characteristic of industrial data that adversely affects industrial data mining because it leads to the biased training of machine learning models.To address this issue,the augmentation of samples in minority classes based on generative adversarial networks(GANs)has been demonstrated as an effective approach.This study proposes a novel GAN-based minority class augmentation approach named classifier-aided minority augmentation generative adversarial network(CMAGAN).In the CMAGAN framework,an outlier elimination strategy is first applied to each class to minimize the negative impacts of outliers.Subsequently,a newly designed boundary-strengthening learning GAN(BSLGAN)is employed to generate additional samples for minority classes.By incorporating a supplementary classifier and innovative training mechanisms,the BSLGAN focuses on learning the distribution of samples near classification boundaries.Consequently,it can fully capture the characteristics of the target class and generate highly realistic samples with clear boundaries.Finally,the new samples are filtered based on the Mahalanobis distance to ensure that they are within the desired distribution.To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach,CMAGAN was used to solve the class imbalance problem in eight real-world fault-prediction applications.The performance of CMAGAN was compared with that of seven other algorithms,including state-of-the-art GAN-based methods,and the results indicated that CMAGAN could provide higher-quality augmented results.展开更多
In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhance...In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.展开更多
This paper makes a study of the cause of manufacturing fault,develops the and/or- fault-tree of manufacturing quality fault for MC,and presents a new concept of faint manufacturing quality fault(FMQF)and the decision ...This paper makes a study of the cause of manufacturing fault,develops the and/or- fault-tree of manufacturing quality fault for MC,and presents a new concept of faint manufacturing quality fault(FMQF)and the decision making tree with which the fault of manufacturing system would be found out from FMQF.An approach to identification of FMQF,based on fuzzy set theory,is presented,which can be used for estimating the status of equipment with the deviation of control charts.Based on the study above,an expert system for the flexible manufacturing system's FMQF detection and prediction is built.展开更多
Accurate fault prediction is essential to ensure the safety and reliability of combine harvester operation.In this study,a combine harvester fault prediction method based on a combination of stacked denoising autoenco...Accurate fault prediction is essential to ensure the safety and reliability of combine harvester operation.In this study,a combine harvester fault prediction method based on a combination of stacked denoising autoencoders(SDAE)and multi-classification support vector machines(SVM)is proposed to predict combine harvester faults by extracting operational features of key combine components.In general,SDAE contains autoencoders and uses a deep network architecture to learn complex non-linear input-output relationships in a hierarchical manner.Selected features are fed into the SDAE network,deep-level features of the input parameters are extracted by SDAE,and an SVM classifier is then added to its top layer to achieve combine harvester fault prediction.The experimental results show that the method can achieve accurate and efficient combine harvester fault prediction.In particular,the experiments used Gaussian noise with a distribution center of 0.05 to corrupt the test data samples obtained by random sampling of the whole population,and the results showed that the prediction accuracy of the method was 95.31%,which has better robustness and generalization ability compared to SVM(77.03%),BP(74.61%),and SAE(90.86%).展开更多
By studying different compressive strengths and changes in the characteristics of rocks,five variables were selected to predict faults in coal mines. Drillholes in the mined area were divided into two populations, i.e...By studying different compressive strengths and changes in the characteristics of rocks,five variables were selected to predict faults in coal mines. Drillholes in the mined area were divided into two populations, i.e., drillholes containing faults and drillholes without faults. Discriminant functions were established from the values of the five variables using Fisher's approach. Drillholes in the non-mined areas were allocated to one of the two populations by using discriminant functions. The terrenes of each drillhole were divided into 10 sections, above and below a minable coal seam. Each section has 10 layers of rocks. The population to which each drillhole in a section belongs is sorted out and the probability of each drillhole with faults obtained,i.e., a contour map of predicting the probability of faults in coal mining is shown. A comparison with the real distribution of faults shows that the precision of accurately predicting faults is greater than 70 per cent.展开更多
The integrated energy systems,usually including electric energy,natural gas and thermal energy,play a pivotal role in the energy Internet project,which could improve the accommodation of renewable energy through multi...The integrated energy systems,usually including electric energy,natural gas and thermal energy,play a pivotal role in the energy Internet project,which could improve the accommodation of renewable energy through multienergy complementary ways.Focusing on the regional integrated energy system composed of electrical microgrid and natural gas network,a fault risk warning method based on the improved RelieF-softmax method is proposed in this paper.The raw data-set was first clustered by the K-maxmin method to improve the preference of the random sampling process in the RelieF algorithm,and thereby achieved a hierarchical and non-repeated sampling.Then,the improved RelieF algorithm is used to identify the feature vectors,calculate the feature weights,and select the preferred feature subset according to the initially set threshold.In addition,a correlation coefficient method is applied to reduce the feature subset,and further eliminate the redundant feature vectors to obtain the optimal feature subset.Finally,the softmax classifier is used to obtain the early warnings of the integrated energy system.Case studies are conducted on an integrated energy system in the south of China to demonstrate the accuracy of fault risk warning method proposed in this paper.展开更多
Existing power anomaly detection is mainly based on a pattern matching algorithm.However,this method requires a lot of manual work,is time-consuming,and cannot detect unknown anomalies.Moreover,a large amount of label...Existing power anomaly detection is mainly based on a pattern matching algorithm.However,this method requires a lot of manual work,is time-consuming,and cannot detect unknown anomalies.Moreover,a large amount of labeled anomaly data is required in machine learning-based anomaly detection.Therefore,this paper proposes the application of a generative adversarial network(GAN)to massive data stream anomaly identification,diagnosis,and prediction in power dispatching automation systems.Firstly,to address the problem of the small amount of anomaly data,a GAN is used to obtain reliable labeled datasets for fault diagnosis model training based on a few labeled data points.Then,a two-step detection process is designed for the characteristics of grid anomalies,where the generated samples are first input to the XGBoost recognition system to identify the large class of anomalies in the first step.Thereafter,the data processed in the first step are input to the joint model of Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)and Long short-term memory(LSTM)for fine-grained analysis to detect the small class of anomalies in the second step.Extensive experiments show that our work can reduce a lot of manual work and outperform the state-of-art anomalies classification algorithms for power dispatching data network.展开更多
Despite advances in technological complexity and efforts,software repository maintenance requires reusing the data to reduce the effort and complexity.However,increasing ambiguity,irrelevance,and bugs while extracting...Despite advances in technological complexity and efforts,software repository maintenance requires reusing the data to reduce the effort and complexity.However,increasing ambiguity,irrelevance,and bugs while extracting similar data during software development generate a large amount of data from those data that reside in repositories.Thus,there is a need for a repository mining technique for relevant and bug-free data prediction.This paper proposes a fault prediction approach using a data-mining technique to find good predictors for high-quality software.To predict errors in mining data,the Apriori algorithm was used to discover association rules by fixing confidence at more than 40%and support at least 30%.The pruning strategy was adopted based on evaluation measures.Next,the rules were extracted from three projects of different domains;the extracted rules were then combined to obtain the most popular rules based on the evaluation measure values.To evaluate the proposed approach,we conducted an experimental study to compare the proposed rules with existing ones using four different industrial projects.The evaluation showed that the results of our proposal are promising.Practitioners and developers can utilize these rules for defect prediction during early software development.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51175480)
文摘Based on modeling principle of GM（1,1）model and linear regression model,a combined prediction model is established to predict equipment fault by the fitting of two models.The new prediction model takes full advantage of prediction information provided by the two models and improves the prediction precision.Finally,this model is introduced to predict the system fault time according to the output voltages of a certain type of radar transmitter.
基金Supported by the Shandong Natural Science Foundation(ZR2013BL008)
文摘This paper combines grey model with time series model and then dynamic model for rapid and in-depth fault prediction in chemical processes. Two combination methods are proposed. In one method, historical data is introduced into the grey time series model to predict future trend of measurement values in chemical process. These predicted measurements are then used in the dynamic model to retrieve the change of fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. In another method, historical data is introduced directly into the dynamic model to retrieve historical fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. These parameters are then predicted by the grey time series model. The two methods are applied to a gravity tank example. The case study demonstrates that the first method is more accurate for fault prediction.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51875209)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2019B1515120060)the Open Funds of State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment。
文摘Early fault warning for nuclear power machinery is conducive to timely troubleshooting and reductions in safety risks and unnecessary costs. This paper presents a novel intelligent fault prediction method, integrated probabilistic principal component analysis(PPCA), multi-resolution wavelet analysis, Bayesian inference, and RNN model for nuclear power machinery that consider data uncertainty and chaotic time series. After denoising the source data, the Bayesian PPCA method is employed for dimensional reduction to obtain a refined data group. A recurrent neural network(RNN) prediction model is constructed, and a Bayesian statistical inference approach is developed to quantitatively assess the prediction reliability of the model. By modeling and analyzing the data collected on the steam turbine and components of a nuclear power plant, the results of the goodness of fit, mean square error distribution, and Bayesian confidence indicate that the proposed RNN model can implement early warning in the fault creep period. The accuracy and reliability of the proposed model are quantitatively verified.
文摘Fighters and other complex engineering systems have many characteristics such as difficult modeling and testing, multiple working situations, and high cost. Aim at these points, a new kind of real-time fault predictor is designed based on an improved k-nearest neighbor method, which needs neither the math model of system nc, the training data and prior knowledge. It can study and predict while system＇s running, so that it can overcome the difficulty of data acquirement. Besides, this predictor has a fast prediction speed, and the false alarm rate and missing alarm rate can be adjusted randomly. The method is simple and universalizable. The result of simulation on fighter F-16 proved the effidency.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61074153)
文摘Time-series prediction is one of the major methodologies used for fault prediction. The methods based on recurrent neural networks have been widely used in time-series prediction for their remarkable non-liner mapping ability. As a new recurrent neural network, reservoir neural network can effectively process the time-series prediction. However, the ill-posedness problem of reservoir neural networks has seriously restricted the generalization performance. In this paper, a fault prediction algorithm based on time-series is proposed using improved reservoir neural networks. The basic idea is taking structure risk into consideration, that is, the cost function involves not only the experience risk factor but also the structure risk factor. Thus a regulation coefficient is introduced to calculate the output weight of the reservoir neural network. As a result, the amplitude of output weight is effectively controlled and the ill-posedness problem is solved. Because the training speed of ordinary reservoir networks is naturally fast, the improved reservoir networks for time-series prediction are good in speed and generalization ability. Experiments on Mackey–Glass and sunspot time series prediction prove the effectiveness of the algorithm. The proposed algorithm is applied to TE process fault prediction. We first forecast some timeseries obtained from TE and then predict the fault type adopting the static reservoirs with the predicted data.The final prediction correct rate reaches 81%.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51275052)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.3131002)
文摘The safety and reliability of mechatronics systems,particularly the high-end,large and key mechatronics equipment in service,can strongly influence on production efficiency,personnel safety,resources and environment.Based on the demands of development of modern industries and technologies such as international industry 4.0,Made-in-China 2025 and Internet + and so on,this paper started from revealing the regularity of evolution of running state of equipment and the methods of signal processing of low signal noise ratio,proposed the key information technology of state monitoring and earlyfault-warning for equipment,put forward the typical technical line and major technical content,introduced the application of the technology to realize modern predictive maintenance of equipment and introduced the development of relevant safety monitoring instruments.The technology will play an important role in ensuring the safety of equipment in service,preventing accidents and realizing scientific maintenance.
文摘Nowadays, the elevator has become an indispensable means of indoor transportation in people’s life, but in recent years this kind of traffic tools has caused many casualties because of the gate system fault. In order to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the elevator, the failure of elevator door system was predicted in this paper. Against the fault type of elevator door system: elevator door opened, excessive vibration when elevator door opened or closed, elevator door did not open or closed when reached the specified level. Three fault types were used as the output of the prediction model. There were 8 reasons for the failure, used them as input. A model based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and BP neural network was established, using MATLAB to emulation;the results showed that: PSO-BP neural network algorithm was feasible in the fault prediction of the elevator door system.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61403397)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(Grant Nos.2020JM-358,2015JM6313).
文摘Inertial system platforms are a kind of important precision devices,which have the characteristics of difficult acquisition for state data and small sample scale.Focusing on the model optimization for data-driven fault state prediction and quantitative degreemeasurement,a fast small-sample supersphere one-class SVMmodelingmethod using support vectors pre-selection is systematically studied in this paper.By theorem-proving the irrelevance between themodel’s learning result and the non-support vectors(NSVs),the distribution characters of the support vectors are analyzed.On this basis,a modeling method with selected samples having specific geometry character fromthe training sets is also proposed.The method can remarkably eliminate theNSVs and improve the algorithm’s efficiency.The experimental results testify that the scale of training samples and the modeling time consumption both give a sharply decrease using the support vectors pre-selection method.The experimental results on inertial devices also show good fault prediction capability and effectiveness of quantitative anomaly measurement.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61863024,71761023)Funding for Scientific Research Projects of Colleges and Universities in Gansu Province(Nos.2018C-11,2018A-22)Natural Science Fund of Gansu Province(No.18JR3RA130)。
文摘Turnout is one of the important signal infrastructure equipment,which will directly affect the safety and efficiency of driving.Base on analysis of the power curve of the turnout,we extract and select the time domain and Haar wavelet transform characteristics of the curve firstly.Then the correlation between the degradation state and the fault state is established by using the clustering algorithm and the Pearson correlation coefficient.Finally,the convolutional neural network(CNN)and the gated recurrent unit(GRU)are used to establish the state prediction model of the turnout to realize the failure prediction.The CNN can directly extract features from the original data of the turnout and reduce the dimension,which simplifies the prediction process.Due to its unique gate structure and time series processing features,GRU has certain advantages over the traditional forecasting methods in terms of prediction accuracy and time.The experimental results show that the accuracy of prediction can reach 94.2%when the feature matrix adopts 40-dimensional input and iterates 50 times.
文摘Condition-based maintenance based on fault prediction has been widely concerned by the industry. Most of the contributions on fault prediction are based on various sensor data and mathematical models of the equipment. The complexity of the model and data signal is the key factor affecting the practicability of the model. In addition, even for the same type and batch of equipment, the manufacturing process, operation environment and other factors also affect the model parameters. In this paper, a series event model is conducted to predict the fault of marine diesel engines. Numerical example illustrates that the proposed event model is feasible.
文摘Software testing is an integral part of software development. Not only that testing exists in each software iteration cycle, but it also consumes a considerable amount of resources. While resources such as machinery and manpower are often restricted, it is crucial to decide where and how much effort to put into testing. One way to address this problem is to identify which components of the subject under the test are more error-prone and thus demand more testing efforts. Recent development in machine learning techniques shows promising potential to predict faults in different components of a software system. This work conducts an empirical study to explore the feasibility of using static software metrics to predict software faults. We apply four machine learning techniques to construct fault prediction models from the PROMISE data set and evaluate the effectiveness of using static software metrics to build fault prediction models in four continuous versions of Apache Ant. The empirical results show that the combined software metrics generate the least misclassification errors. The fault prediction results vary significantly among different machine learning techniques and data set. Overall, fault prediction models built with the support vector machine (SVM) have the lowest misclassification errors.
文摘Accurate fault prediction can obviously reduce cost and decrease the probability of accidents so as to improve the performance of the system testing and maintenance. Traditional fault prediction methods are always offline that are not suitable for online and real-time processing. For the complicated nonlinear and non-stationary time series, it is hard to achieve exact predicting result with single models such as support vector regression （SVR）, artifieial neural network （ANN）, and autoregressive moving average （ARMA）. Combined with the accurate online support vector regression （AOSVR） algorithm and ARMA model, a new online approach is presented to forecast fault with time series prediction. The fault trend feature can be extracted by the AOSVR with global kernel for general fault modes. Moreover, its prediction residual that represents the local high-frequency components is synchronously revised and compensated by the sliding time window ARMA model. Fault prediction with combined AOSVR and ARMA can be realized better than with the single one. Experiments on Tennessee Eastman process fault data show the new method is practical and effective.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52375256)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai Municipality(Grant Nos.21ZR1431500 and 23ZR1431600).
文摘Class imbalance is a common characteristic of industrial data that adversely affects industrial data mining because it leads to the biased training of machine learning models.To address this issue,the augmentation of samples in minority classes based on generative adversarial networks(GANs)has been demonstrated as an effective approach.This study proposes a novel GAN-based minority class augmentation approach named classifier-aided minority augmentation generative adversarial network(CMAGAN).In the CMAGAN framework,an outlier elimination strategy is first applied to each class to minimize the negative impacts of outliers.Subsequently,a newly designed boundary-strengthening learning GAN(BSLGAN)is employed to generate additional samples for minority classes.By incorporating a supplementary classifier and innovative training mechanisms,the BSLGAN focuses on learning the distribution of samples near classification boundaries.Consequently,it can fully capture the characteristics of the target class and generate highly realistic samples with clear boundaries.Finally,the new samples are filtered based on the Mahalanobis distance to ensure that they are within the desired distribution.To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach,CMAGAN was used to solve the class imbalance problem in eight real-world fault-prediction applications.The performance of CMAGAN was compared with that of seven other algorithms,including state-of-the-art GAN-based methods,and the results indicated that CMAGAN could provide higher-quality augmented results.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.under Grant GDKJXM20222357.
文摘In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.
文摘This paper makes a study of the cause of manufacturing fault,develops the and/or- fault-tree of manufacturing quality fault for MC,and presents a new concept of faint manufacturing quality fault(FMQF)and the decision making tree with which the fault of manufacturing system would be found out from FMQF.An approach to identification of FMQF,based on fuzzy set theory,is presented,which can be used for estimating the status of equipment with the deviation of control charts.Based on the study above,an expert system for the flexible manufacturing system's FMQF detection and prediction is built.
基金The work was sponsored by the Intelligent Manufacturing Comprehensive Standardization Project(No.2018GXZ1101011)the National Key Research and Development Program of China Sub-project(No.2016YFD0701802)the Natural Science Foundation of Henan(No.202300410124).
文摘Accurate fault prediction is essential to ensure the safety and reliability of combine harvester operation.In this study,a combine harvester fault prediction method based on a combination of stacked denoising autoencoders(SDAE)and multi-classification support vector machines(SVM)is proposed to predict combine harvester faults by extracting operational features of key combine components.In general,SDAE contains autoencoders and uses a deep network architecture to learn complex non-linear input-output relationships in a hierarchical manner.Selected features are fed into the SDAE network,deep-level features of the input parameters are extracted by SDAE,and an SVM classifier is then added to its top layer to achieve combine harvester fault prediction.The experimental results show that the method can achieve accurate and efficient combine harvester fault prediction.In particular,the experiments used Gaussian noise with a distribution center of 0.05 to corrupt the test data samples obtained by random sampling of the whole population,and the results showed that the prediction accuracy of the method was 95.31%,which has better robustness and generalization ability compared to SVM(77.03%),BP(74.61%),and SAE(90.86%).
基金Project 40772198 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘By studying different compressive strengths and changes in the characteristics of rocks,five variables were selected to predict faults in coal mines. Drillholes in the mined area were divided into two populations, i.e., drillholes containing faults and drillholes without faults. Discriminant functions were established from the values of the five variables using Fisher's approach. Drillholes in the non-mined areas were allocated to one of the two populations by using discriminant functions. The terrenes of each drillhole were divided into 10 sections, above and below a minable coal seam. Each section has 10 layers of rocks. The population to which each drillhole in a section belongs is sorted out and the probability of each drillhole with faults obtained,i.e., a contour map of predicting the probability of faults in coal mining is shown. A comparison with the real distribution of faults shows that the precision of accurately predicting faults is greater than 70 per cent.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51777193).
文摘The integrated energy systems,usually including electric energy,natural gas and thermal energy,play a pivotal role in the energy Internet project,which could improve the accommodation of renewable energy through multienergy complementary ways.Focusing on the regional integrated energy system composed of electrical microgrid and natural gas network,a fault risk warning method based on the improved RelieF-softmax method is proposed in this paper.The raw data-set was first clustered by the K-maxmin method to improve the preference of the random sampling process in the RelieF algorithm,and thereby achieved a hierarchical and non-repeated sampling.Then,the improved RelieF algorithm is used to identify the feature vectors,calculate the feature weights,and select the preferred feature subset according to the initially set threshold.In addition,a correlation coefficient method is applied to reduce the feature subset,and further eliminate the redundant feature vectors to obtain the optimal feature subset.Finally,the softmax classifier is used to obtain the early warnings of the integrated energy system.Case studies are conducted on an integrated energy system in the south of China to demonstrate the accuracy of fault risk warning method proposed in this paper.
基金supported by the Technology Project of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,China,under Grant J2021167.
文摘Existing power anomaly detection is mainly based on a pattern matching algorithm.However,this method requires a lot of manual work,is time-consuming,and cannot detect unknown anomalies.Moreover,a large amount of labeled anomaly data is required in machine learning-based anomaly detection.Therefore,this paper proposes the application of a generative adversarial network(GAN)to massive data stream anomaly identification,diagnosis,and prediction in power dispatching automation systems.Firstly,to address the problem of the small amount of anomaly data,a GAN is used to obtain reliable labeled datasets for fault diagnosis model training based on a few labeled data points.Then,a two-step detection process is designed for the characteristics of grid anomalies,where the generated samples are first input to the XGBoost recognition system to identify the large class of anomalies in the first step.Thereafter,the data processed in the first step are input to the joint model of Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)and Long short-term memory(LSTM)for fine-grained analysis to detect the small class of anomalies in the second step.Extensive experiments show that our work can reduce a lot of manual work and outperform the state-of-art anomalies classification algorithms for power dispatching data network.
基金This research was financially supported in part by the Ministry of Trade,Industry and Energy(MOTIE)and Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology(KIAT)through the International Cooperative R&D program.(Project No.P0016038)in part by the MSIT(Ministry of Science and ICT),Korea,under the ITRC(Information Technology Research Center)support program(IITP-2021-2016-0-00312)supervised by the IITP(Institute for Information&communications Technology Planning&Evaluation).
文摘Despite advances in technological complexity and efforts,software repository maintenance requires reusing the data to reduce the effort and complexity.However,increasing ambiguity,irrelevance,and bugs while extracting similar data during software development generate a large amount of data from those data that reside in repositories.Thus,there is a need for a repository mining technique for relevant and bug-free data prediction.This paper proposes a fault prediction approach using a data-mining technique to find good predictors for high-quality software.To predict errors in mining data,the Apriori algorithm was used to discover association rules by fixing confidence at more than 40%and support at least 30%.The pruning strategy was adopted based on evaluation measures.Next,the rules were extracted from three projects of different domains;the extracted rules were then combined to obtain the most popular rules based on the evaluation measure values.To evaluate the proposed approach,we conducted an experimental study to compare the proposed rules with existing ones using four different industrial projects.The evaluation showed that the results of our proposal are promising.Practitioners and developers can utilize these rules for defect prediction during early software development.
