A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadr...A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadratic programming is given. This model has extensive representation. It is a new kind of aggregative method of group forecasting. By taking the suitable combining form of the forecasting models and seeking the optimal parameter, the optimal combining form can be obtained and the forecasting accuracy can be improved. The effectiveness of this model is demonstrated by an example.展开更多
Two kinds of parameter estimation methods (I) and (II) of combining forecasting based on harmontic mean are proposed and compared through a lot of simulation forecasting examples. A very helpful conclusion is obtained...Two kinds of parameter estimation methods (I) and (II) of combining forecasting based on harmontic mean are proposed and compared through a lot of simulation forecasting examples. A very helpful conclusion is obtained, which can lay solid foundations for correct application of the above methods.展开更多
This paper presents the parameter estimation methods of weighting coefficients in generalized weighted mean combining forecasting, and uses this forecasting model to forecast air materials consumption. Finially, the e...This paper presents the parameter estimation methods of weighting coefficients in generalized weighted mean combining forecasting, and uses this forecasting model to forecast air materials consumption. Finially, the efficiency of generalized weighted mean combining forecasting has been demonstrated by an example.展开更多
电力负荷具有一定的周期相似性,为此,提出一种基于子空间旋转矢量不变技术(E S P R I T)的综合负荷预测方法。对电力负荷数据进行移位平移处理构造出满足子空间不变性的数据矩阵,利用最小二乘法E S P R I T原理进行谐波检测,提取出各主...电力负荷具有一定的周期相似性,为此,提出一种基于子空间旋转矢量不变技术(E S P R I T)的综合负荷预测方法。对电力负荷数据进行移位平移处理构造出满足子空间不变性的数据矩阵,利用最小二乘法E S P R I T原理进行谐波检测,提取出各主要频率分量成分。利用K均值聚类法把提取的分量根据频率特点分为不同类型,之后建立不同预测模型对各部分进行独立负荷预测,最终得到综合的预测负荷值。E S P R I T算法具有较高的频谱分辨率,可降低原数据维数,且综合预测法能针对不同成分有更好的预测。最后仿真也证明了该方法预测的准确性及有效性。展开更多
文摘A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadratic programming is given. This model has extensive representation. It is a new kind of aggregative method of group forecasting. By taking the suitable combining form of the forecasting models and seeking the optimal parameter, the optimal combining form can be obtained and the forecasting accuracy can be improved. The effectiveness of this model is demonstrated by an example.
文摘Two kinds of parameter estimation methods (I) and (II) of combining forecasting based on harmontic mean are proposed and compared through a lot of simulation forecasting examples. A very helpful conclusion is obtained, which can lay solid foundations for correct application of the above methods.
文摘This paper presents the parameter estimation methods of weighting coefficients in generalized weighted mean combining forecasting, and uses this forecasting model to forecast air materials consumption. Finially, the efficiency of generalized weighted mean combining forecasting has been demonstrated by an example.
文摘电力负荷具有一定的周期相似性,为此,提出一种基于子空间旋转矢量不变技术(E S P R I T)的综合负荷预测方法。对电力负荷数据进行移位平移处理构造出满足子空间不变性的数据矩阵,利用最小二乘法E S P R I T原理进行谐波检测,提取出各主要频率分量成分。利用K均值聚类法把提取的分量根据频率特点分为不同类型,之后建立不同预测模型对各部分进行独立负荷预测,最终得到综合的预测负荷值。E S P R I T算法具有较高的频谱分辨率,可降低原数据维数,且综合预测法能针对不同成分有更好的预测。最后仿真也证明了该方法预测的准确性及有效性。
