[Objective] The aim was to study the causes for one large scale of consecutive rainstorm process in the winter of 2010 in Guangxi. [Method] The characteristics and causes of the uncommon persistent heavy rain occurrin...[Objective] The aim was to study the causes for one large scale of consecutive rainstorm process in the winter of 2010 in Guangxi. [Method] The characteristics and causes of the uncommon persistent heavy rain occurring in Guangxi in January, 2010 were analyzed by using synoptic observation data, NCEP 1°×1° per six hours Global Data Assimilation System reanalysis data and satellite image. [Result] The results showed that this persistent heavy rain process was associated with abnormal intensity and the stability of the western pacific subtropical high. The heavy rain was caused by the cloud system maintaining for a long time on the edge of subtropical high. The convergence of the infrequent southeast jet was the primary cause of the uncommon heavy rain. MPV1>0, and MPV2<0 at 700 hPa were the favorable conditions for the heavy rain. The magnitude of MPV1 and MPV2 was equivalent. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of the following similar extreme weather.展开更多
Using real-time data and the WRF mesoscale model,a heavy rain event in the process of Mesoscale Convective Complex(MCC) turning into banded Mesoscale Convective Systems(MCSs) during 18-19 June 2010 is simulated and an...Using real-time data and the WRF mesoscale model,a heavy rain event in the process of Mesoscale Convective Complex(MCC) turning into banded Mesoscale Convective Systems(MCSs) during 18-19 June 2010 is simulated and analyzed in this paper.The results indicated that the formation and maintenance of a southwest vortex and shear line at 850 h Pa was the mesoscale system that affected the production of this heavy rain.The low-vortex heavy rain mainly happened in the development stage of MCC,and the circular MCC turned into banded MCSs in the late stage with mainly shear line precipitation.In the vicinity of rainfall area,the intense horizontal vorticity due to the vertical shear of u and v caused the rotation,and in correspondence,the ascending branch of the vertical circulation triggered the formation of heavy rain.The different distributions of u and v in the vertical direction produced varying vertical circulations.The horizontal vorticity near the low-vortex and shear line had obvious differences which led to varying reasons for heavy rain formation.The low-vortex heavy rain was mainly caused by the vertical shear of v,and the shear line rainfall formed owing to the vertical shear of both u and v.In this process,the vertical shear of v constituted the EW-trending rain band along the shear line,and the latitudinal non-uniformity of the vertical shear in u caused the vertical motion,which was closely related to the generation and development of MCSs at the shear line and the formation of multiple rain clusters.There was also a similar difference in the positively-tilting term(conversion from horizontal vorticity to vertical positive vorticity) near the rainfall center between the low-vortex and the shear line.The conversion in the low vortex was mainly determined by бv/бp<0,while that of the shear line by бu/бp<0.The scale of the conversion from the horizontal vorticity to vertical vorticity was relatively small,and it was easily ignored in the averaged state.The twisting term was mainly conducive to the reinforcement of precipitation,whereas its contribution to the development of southwest vortex and shear line was relatively small.展开更多
An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the an...An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze the process and reason of the extreme heavy rainfall on June 15,2011 in Cold Lake in Qinghai.[Method] The weather,physical field and satellite of one extreme heavy rain in the cold l...[Objective] The aim was to analyze the process and reason of the extreme heavy rainfall on June 15,2011 in Cold Lake in Qinghai.[Method] The weather,physical field and satellite of one extreme heavy rain in the cold lake in Qinghai were expounded.[Result] The formation of the loop "crooked neck" of high pressure,which on the one hand posed a typical situation in the circulation of heavy precipitation in Qinghai,and on the other hand,formed the southwest,southeast of the two water vapor transport in air,in addition to the small groove from the trough of Lake Balk hash and the split vortex plateau,resulted into the extreme heavy rainfall in Cold Lake.The presence of thermal low pressure 700 hPa was conducive to the accumulation of low energy and low-level moisture transport from the Qinghai region to the south of Qaidam Basin.[Conclusion] The resulting process was mainly due to heavy rain in the lower troposphere convergence,high-level divergence,high humidity areas and a strong vertical upward motion.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study the Markov chain prediction method of first heavy rain in spring in Xi'an City.[Method] According to the dependent random variables of the occurrence of heavy rain,precipitation in...[Objective] The aim was to study the Markov chain prediction method of first heavy rain in spring in Xi'an City.[Method] According to the dependent random variables of the occurrence of heavy rain,precipitation in spring in seven meteorological stations in Xi'an City from 1959 to 2010 was selected.Its occurrence date was determined by the standard of first heavy rain in spring in meteorology.According to the length of the sequence of the problem and actual situation,six states were divided.And by dint of Markov chain,first heavy rain prediction model in spring was set up.[Result] The predicted occurrence time of first heavy rain in spring in Xi'an in 2009 and 2010 was consistent with the actual situation.The prediction effect was fine.The method had clear thought and was convenient for calculation,with certain dependence and practicality.[Conclusion] This method provided reference value for the actual forecast of first heavy rain in spring.展开更多
In 2022,a campaign to select and recognize 10 most influential heavy rain events(HREs)in China was initiated by the Chinese Meteorological Society and Wuhan Heavy Rain Research Institute of the China Meteorological Ad...In 2022,a campaign to select and recognize 10 most influential heavy rain events(HREs)in China was initiated by the Chinese Meteorological Society and Wuhan Heavy Rain Research Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).A work flow involving both scientists and the general public for selecting major HREs over the Chinese mainland was implemented,and several evaluation indices that can represent HREs as well as associated causality and economic losses were established,based on which the top 10 most influential HREs in 2022 were recognized and announced to the public.The present paper introduces the selection and evaluation process and summarizes the main results.It is found that 38 major HREs occurred in South,North,and Northeast China in 2022,with the Pearl River basin and Songliao basin experiencing severe floods.A number of HREs occurred in Southwest China with high rainfall intensity,but small cumulative amount.Upper-level troughs,low vortices,low-level jets,low-level shear lines,the subtropical high,and typhoons are the main weather systems leading to the top 10 most influential HREs in 2022.Selection and evaluation of HREs form a quantitative record of major HREs,help concentrate limited research efforts on investigating the causes of major HREs,and promote the improvement of HRE forecasting skills.展开更多
On 20 July 2021,a sudden rainstorm happened in central and northern Henan Province,China,killing at least 302people.This extreme precipitation event incurred substantial socioeconomic impacts and resulted in serious l...On 20 July 2021,a sudden rainstorm happened in central and northern Henan Province,China,killing at least 302people.This extreme precipitation event incurred substantial socioeconomic impacts and resulted in serious losses.Accurate monitoring of such rainstorm events is crucial.In this study,qualitative and quantitative methods are used to comprehensively evaluate the abilities of 10 high-resolution satellite precipitation products[CMORPH-Raw(Climate Prediction Center morphing technique),CMORPH-RT,PERSIANN-CCS(Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks),GPM IMERG-Early(Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement),GPM IMERG-Late,GSMaP-Now(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation),GSMaP-NRT,FY-2F,FY-2G,and FY-2H]in capturing this extreme rainstorm event,as well as their performances in monitoring different precipitation intensities.The results show that these satellite precipitation products are able to capture the spatial distributions of the rainstorm(e.g.,its location in central and northern Henan),but all products have underestimated the amount of precipitation in the rainstorm center.With the increase in precipitation intensity,the hit rate decreases,the threat score decreases,and the false alarm rate increases.CMORPH-RT is better at capturing the rainstorm than CMORPH-Raw,and it depictes the rainstorm process well;GPM IMERG-Late is more accurate than GPM IMERG-Early;GSMaP-NRT has performed better than GSMaP-Now;and PERSIANNCCS and FY-2F perform poorly.Among the products,CMORPH-RT performs the best,which has accurately captured the center of the rainstorm,and is also the closest to the station-based observations.In general,the satellite precipitation products that integrate infrared and passive microwave data are found to be better than those that only make use of infrared data.The satellite precipitation retrieval algorithm and the amount of passive microwave data have a relatively greater impact on the accuracy of satellite precipitation products.展开更多
Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 201...Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.展开更多
In this paper,the data of Automatic Weather Stations(AWSs),ERA5 reanalysis,sounding,wind profile radar,and dual-polarization radar are used to study an extreme rainfall event in the south China Coast on 11 to 12 May 2...In this paper,the data of Automatic Weather Stations(AWSs),ERA5 reanalysis,sounding,wind profile radar,and dual-polarization radar are used to study an extreme rainfall event in the south China Coast on 11 to 12 May 2022 from the aspects of thermodynamics and microphysical characteristics under the influence of low-level jets(LLJs).Results show that:(1)The extreme rainfall event can be divided into two stages:the first stage(S1)from 0000 to 0600 LST on May 12 and the second stage(S2)from 0700 to 1700 LST on the same day.During S1,the rainfall is mainly caused by the upper-level shortwave trough and the boundary layer jet(BLJ),characterized by strong upward motion on the windward side of mountains.In S2,the combined influence of the BLJ and synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ)increases the vertical wind shear and vertical vorticity,strengthening the rainstorm.In combination with the effect of topography,a warm and humid southwest flow continuously transports water vapor to farther north,resulting in a significant increase in rainfall over the study area(on the terrain’s windward slope).From S1 to S2,the altitude of a divergence center in the upper air decreases obviously.(2)The rainfalls in the two stages are both associated with the mesoscale convergence line(MCL)on the surface,and the wind field from the mesoscale outflow boundary(MOB)in S1 is in the same direction as the environmental winds.Due to a small area of convergence that is left behind the MOB,convection moves eastward quickly and causes a short duration of heavy rainfall.In S2,the convergence along the MOB is enhanced,which strengthens the rainfall and leads to strong outflows,further enhancing the surface convergence near the MOB and forming a positive feedback mechanism.It results in a slow motion of convection and a long duration of heavy rainfall.(3)In terms of microphysics,the center of a strong echo in S1 is higher than in S2.The warm-rain process of the oceanic type characterizes both stages,but the convective intensity in S2 is significantly stronger than that in S1,featuring bigger drop sizes and lower concentrations.It is mainly due to the strengthening of LLJs,which makes small cloud droplets lift to melting levels,enhancing the ice phase process(riming process),producing large amounts of graupel particles and enhancing the melting and collision processes as they fall,resulting in the increase of liquid water content(LWC)and the formation of large raindrops near the surface.展开更多
Based on the NCEP data of the United States, a rainstorm process in South China during September 7 to 8, 2022 was studied. Synoptic method is a qualitative and empirical forecasting method. The results show that: In e...Based on the NCEP data of the United States, a rainstorm process in South China during September 7 to 8, 2022 was studied. Synoptic method is a qualitative and empirical forecasting method. The results show that: In early September 2022, the cold air behind the trough line from northeast China to North China can directly drive southward and invade South China from the east road. Typhoon Hinnamnor is located in the saddle field between the mainland subtropical high and the offshore subtropical high. It moves northward on the west side of the coastal subtropical high, affecting the Taiwan Island and the coastal areas of East China. During September 7-8, the wave trough of the 925 hPa Easterly wave was located near 110°E. Easterly jet existed in the southeast of South China. The center of the easterly jet was located to the east of Hainan Island, which could transport abundant water vapor from the sea surface to the sky over South China. The precipitable water in the whole layer of the atmosphere decreased from the southern coastal areas to the north, reaching more than 50 mm in southern China, of which most of the South China Sea, Hainan Island and parts of the western part of Guangdong Province exceeded 60 mm, providing sufficient water vapor supply. The circulation field with convergence at low level and divergence at high level is conducive to vertical uplift to form precipitation.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method] Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torren...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method] Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torrential rain and local heavy rainstorm in Binzhou City during 4-5 August,2010 was analyzed from the circulation situation,physical quantity field,radar echo and so on.[Result] The westerly trough and cold air were the trigger mechanisms of precipitation.The warm wet air flow at the edge of subtropical high and the high-altitude low trough were the main systems of precipitation.It was the typical precipitation process that the northwest of subtropical high overlapped with the westerly trough.In the prior period,the high temperature continued.The cold air at 500 hPa made the convection strengthen.It was the main reason that the local precipitation was strong.In the forecast of rainstorm,the specific humidity,K index and SI index were the good physical quantities and reference indexes.In the formation process of rainstorm,K index had the increasing process.When the rainstorm finished,or the rain intensity weakened,K index decreased obviously.SI index indicated the development of convective precipitation.The radar echo analysis found that the mesocyclone appeared in the process for a short time.For it weakened quickly and disappeared in the shift process,the strong precipitation and gale were formed in the west of Binzou,but the hail wasn't generated.[Conclusion] The research provided the experience for the forecast of such weather in future.展开更多
The structure and organization of the extreme-rain-producing deep convection towers and their roles in the formation of a southwest vortex(SWV)event are studied using the intensified surface rainfall observations,weat...The structure and organization of the extreme-rain-producing deep convection towers and their roles in the formation of a southwest vortex(SWV)event are studied using the intensified surface rainfall observations,weather radar data and numerical simulations from a high-resolution convection-allowing model.The deep convection towers occurred prior to the emergence of SWV and throughout its onset and development stages.They largely resemble the vortical hot tower(VHT)commonly seen in typhoons or hurricanes and are thus considered as a special type of VHT(sVHT).Each sVHT presented a vorticity dipole structure,with the upward motion not superpose the positive vorticity.A positive feedback process in the SWV helped the organization of sVHTs,which in turn strengthened the initial disturbance and development of SWV.The meso-γ-scale large-value areas of positive relative vorticity in the mid-toupper troposphere were largely induced by the diabatic heating and tilting.The strong mid-level convergence was attributed to the mid-level vortex enhancement.The low-level vortex intensification was mainly due to low-level convergence and the stretching of upward flow.The meso-α-scale large-value areas of positive relative vorticity in the low-level could expand up to about 400 hPa,and gradually weakened with time and height due to the decaying low-level convergence and vertical stretching in the matured SWV.As the SWV matured,two secondary circulations were formed,with a weaker mean radial inflow than the outflow and elevated to 300-400 hPa.展开更多
Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort.Allowing for fewer assumptions,a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived ...Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort.Allowing for fewer assumptions,a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived in the Cartesian coordinate system(nonhydrostatic equilibrium)and the isobaric coordinate system(hydrostatic equilibrium),respectively.The terms on the right-hand side of the equations,which comprise the Q vector,are composed of three factors:dynamic,thermodynamic,and mass.A heavy rain event that occurred from 18 to 19 July 2021 in southern Xinjiang was selected to analyze the characteristics of the diagnostic variable in the generalized vertical motion equation(Qz)and the diagnostic variable in the generalized Omega equation(Qp)using high-resolution model data.The results show that the horizontal distribution of the Qz-vector divergence at 5.5 km is roughly similar to the distribution of the Qp-vector divergence at 500 hPa,and that both relate well to the composite radar reflectivity,vertical motion,and hourly accumulated precipitation.The Qz-vector divergence is more effective in indicating weak precipitation.In vertical cross sections,regions with alternating positive and negative large values that match the precipitation are mainly concentrated in the middle levels for both forms of Q vectors.The temporal evolutions of vertically integrated Qz-vector divergence and Qp-vector divergence are generally similar.Both perform better than the classical quasigeostrophic Q vector and nongeostrophic Q vector in indicating the development of the precipitation system.展开更多
Studies based on AC high voltage tests have been done at Cepel to investigate the performance of 800 kV busbar insulators under heavy wetting conditions.Insulators were tested which are now used on site and also with ...Studies based on AC high voltage tests have been done at Cepel to investigate the performance of 800 kV busbar insulators under heavy wetting conditions.Insulators were tested which are now used on site and also with different configurations of booster sheds.Images recorded by ultra-violet(UV) camera were used to help the investigations on the effectiveness of booster sheds.By comparing UV images of the insulator being stressed with high voltage under heavy artificial rain,with and without booster sheds,it was possible to observe how significant the reduction on the flashover formation process was when booster sheds were used.The effectiveness of booster sheds was also quantified by determining the disruptive discharge of the insulator with and without them.The results of these studies can also be considered as contribution to national and international standard technical committees to improving the standardized procedure for tests on ultra high voltage(UHV) insulators under heavy rain.Subjects such as the clear definition of relevant UHV test procedure and test arrangements,including the use of UV camera,have to be taken into account.展开更多
Based on intensive automatic weather station data, satellite cloud imagery, NCEP reanalyzed data, and the simulation results from mesoscale numerical models, this study analyzes the characteristics and formation mecha...Based on intensive automatic weather station data, satellite cloud imagery, NCEP reanalyzed data, and the simulation results from mesoscale numerical models, this study analyzes the characteristics and formation mechanisms of the mesoscale convection system(MCS) during the extreme precipitation event that was triggered by a weakened low-pressure inverted trough of Typhoon Haikui on August 10/2012. The results of this study show that cold air at the rear of a northeastern cold vortex creates thermodynamic conditions favorable to the development of extreme precipitation. The main body of the cold air is northward located so that the cold air invades only the middle layer of the periphery of the inverted trough. Thus, the cold air minimally affects the lower layer, which results in a vertically distributed structure of the temperature advection that augments the formation and development of convective instability stratification. In the middle troposphere, the cold air encounters the convergent, ascending, warm moist air from the low-pressure inverted trough, leading to frontogenesis. The frontogenesis enhances wind convergence which, in turn, further enhances the frontogenesis, and the positive feedback between these two forces augments the development of meso- and small-scale convection systems in the rainstorm region and its vicinity, which strengthens the upward transportation of water vapor from low layers and thickening of water vapor convergence and results in local heavy rains.展开更多
This study focuses on the analysis of the effect of meteorological disasters on film plastic greenhouses by typhoons,heavy snow,strong wind,and heavy rain.The data of meteorological disasters from 1998 to 2015 were an...This study focuses on the analysis of the effect of meteorological disasters on film plastic greenhouses by typhoons,heavy snow,strong wind,and heavy rain.The data of meteorological disasters from 1998 to 2015 were analyzed on provincial basis to calculate the damage rate depending on the weather cause.The cumulative damage area is 20279 hm2.The damage rates of typhoons,heavy snow,strong wind,and heavy rain are 46.4%,47.4%,2.5%,and 3.8%,respectively.The damage index of the greenhouse,which is the ratio of the greenhouse area to the cumulative damage area,was proposed to estimate the disaster risk for 17 administrative districts.The damage index data and the cumulative damage areas were divided using the Jenks’Natural Breaks method.The average damage index is 0.66,and the damage indices are high in the metropolitan cities.展开更多
基金Supported by Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Meteorological Scientific Research Program (Guangxi Meteorological Science 200725)
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the causes for one large scale of consecutive rainstorm process in the winter of 2010 in Guangxi. [Method] The characteristics and causes of the uncommon persistent heavy rain occurring in Guangxi in January, 2010 were analyzed by using synoptic observation data, NCEP 1°×1° per six hours Global Data Assimilation System reanalysis data and satellite image. [Result] The results showed that this persistent heavy rain process was associated with abnormal intensity and the stability of the western pacific subtropical high. The heavy rain was caused by the cloud system maintaining for a long time on the edge of subtropical high. The convergence of the infrequent southeast jet was the primary cause of the uncommon heavy rain. MPV1>0, and MPV2<0 at 700 hPa were the favorable conditions for the heavy rain. The magnitude of MPV1 and MPV2 was equivalent. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of the following similar extreme weather.
基金National Program on Basic Research Project(973 Program)(2009CB421503,2013CB430103)National Natural Science Foundation of China(40975037)Construction of Advantageous Disciplines for Higher Education in Jiangsu Province,Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘Using real-time data and the WRF mesoscale model,a heavy rain event in the process of Mesoscale Convective Complex(MCC) turning into banded Mesoscale Convective Systems(MCSs) during 18-19 June 2010 is simulated and analyzed in this paper.The results indicated that the formation and maintenance of a southwest vortex and shear line at 850 h Pa was the mesoscale system that affected the production of this heavy rain.The low-vortex heavy rain mainly happened in the development stage of MCC,and the circular MCC turned into banded MCSs in the late stage with mainly shear line precipitation.In the vicinity of rainfall area,the intense horizontal vorticity due to the vertical shear of u and v caused the rotation,and in correspondence,the ascending branch of the vertical circulation triggered the formation of heavy rain.The different distributions of u and v in the vertical direction produced varying vertical circulations.The horizontal vorticity near the low-vortex and shear line had obvious differences which led to varying reasons for heavy rain formation.The low-vortex heavy rain was mainly caused by the vertical shear of v,and the shear line rainfall formed owing to the vertical shear of both u and v.In this process,the vertical shear of v constituted the EW-trending rain band along the shear line,and the latitudinal non-uniformity of the vertical shear in u caused the vertical motion,which was closely related to the generation and development of MCSs at the shear line and the formation of multiple rain clusters.There was also a similar difference in the positively-tilting term(conversion from horizontal vorticity to vertical positive vorticity) near the rainfall center between the low-vortex and the shear line.The conversion in the low vortex was mainly determined by бv/бp<0,while that of the shear line by бu/бp<0.The scale of the conversion from the horizontal vorticity to vertical vorticity was relatively small,and it was easily ignored in the averaged state.The twisting term was mainly conducive to the reinforcement of precipitation,whereas its contribution to the development of southwest vortex and shear line was relatively small.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405104)Specialized Project for Public Welfare Industries(Meteorological Sector)(GYHY201306004)+2 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Planning Project(2012A061400012)Project of Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau for Science and Technology(2013A04)Science and Technology Plan for the 12th Five-Year of Social and Economic Development(2012BAC22B00)
文摘An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze the process and reason of the extreme heavy rainfall on June 15,2011 in Cold Lake in Qinghai.[Method] The weather,physical field and satellite of one extreme heavy rain in the cold lake in Qinghai were expounded.[Result] The formation of the loop "crooked neck" of high pressure,which on the one hand posed a typical situation in the circulation of heavy precipitation in Qinghai,and on the other hand,formed the southwest,southeast of the two water vapor transport in air,in addition to the small groove from the trough of Lake Balk hash and the split vortex plateau,resulted into the extreme heavy rainfall in Cold Lake.The presence of thermal low pressure 700 hPa was conducive to the accumulation of low energy and low-level moisture transport from the Qinghai region to the south of Qaidam Basin.[Conclusion] The resulting process was mainly due to heavy rain in the lower troposphere convergence,high-level divergence,high humidity areas and a strong vertical upward motion.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the Markov chain prediction method of first heavy rain in spring in Xi'an City.[Method] According to the dependent random variables of the occurrence of heavy rain,precipitation in spring in seven meteorological stations in Xi'an City from 1959 to 2010 was selected.Its occurrence date was determined by the standard of first heavy rain in spring in meteorology.According to the length of the sequence of the problem and actual situation,six states were divided.And by dint of Markov chain,first heavy rain prediction model in spring was set up.[Result] The predicted occurrence time of first heavy rain in spring in Xi'an in 2009 and 2010 was consistent with the actual situation.The prediction effect was fine.The method had clear thought and was convenient for calculation,with certain dependence and practicality.[Conclusion] This method provided reference value for the actual forecast of first heavy rain in spring.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230612)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3007702)+2 种基金Hubei Natural Science Foundation(2022CFD120)Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J010)Open Project Fund of CMA Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(2023BHR-Y19)。
文摘In 2022,a campaign to select and recognize 10 most influential heavy rain events(HREs)in China was initiated by the Chinese Meteorological Society and Wuhan Heavy Rain Research Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).A work flow involving both scientists and the general public for selecting major HREs over the Chinese mainland was implemented,and several evaluation indices that can represent HREs as well as associated causality and economic losses were established,based on which the top 10 most influential HREs in 2022 were recognized and announced to the public.The present paper introduces the selection and evaluation process and summarizes the main results.It is found that 38 major HREs occurred in South,North,and Northeast China in 2022,with the Pearl River basin and Songliao basin experiencing severe floods.A number of HREs occurred in Southwest China with high rainfall intensity,but small cumulative amount.Upper-level troughs,low vortices,low-level jets,low-level shear lines,the subtropical high,and typhoons are the main weather systems leading to the top 10 most influential HREs in 2022.Selection and evaluation of HREs form a quantitative record of major HREs,help concentrate limited research efforts on investigating the causes of major HREs,and promote the improvement of HRE forecasting skills.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991283 and 42175170)。
文摘On 20 July 2021,a sudden rainstorm happened in central and northern Henan Province,China,killing at least 302people.This extreme precipitation event incurred substantial socioeconomic impacts and resulted in serious losses.Accurate monitoring of such rainstorm events is crucial.In this study,qualitative and quantitative methods are used to comprehensively evaluate the abilities of 10 high-resolution satellite precipitation products[CMORPH-Raw(Climate Prediction Center morphing technique),CMORPH-RT,PERSIANN-CCS(Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks),GPM IMERG-Early(Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement),GPM IMERG-Late,GSMaP-Now(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation),GSMaP-NRT,FY-2F,FY-2G,and FY-2H]in capturing this extreme rainstorm event,as well as their performances in monitoring different precipitation intensities.The results show that these satellite precipitation products are able to capture the spatial distributions of the rainstorm(e.g.,its location in central and northern Henan),but all products have underestimated the amount of precipitation in the rainstorm center.With the increase in precipitation intensity,the hit rate decreases,the threat score decreases,and the false alarm rate increases.CMORPH-RT is better at capturing the rainstorm than CMORPH-Raw,and it depictes the rainstorm process well;GPM IMERG-Late is more accurate than GPM IMERG-Early;GSMaP-NRT has performed better than GSMaP-Now;and PERSIANNCCS and FY-2F perform poorly.Among the products,CMORPH-RT performs the best,which has accurately captured the center of the rainstorm,and is also the closest to the station-based observations.In general,the satellite precipitation products that integrate infrared and passive microwave data are found to be better than those that only make use of infrared data.The satellite precipitation retrieval algorithm and the amount of passive microwave data have a relatively greater impact on the accuracy of satellite precipitation products.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42105004, 41930967, 42192554, and 42105011)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No. LQ20D050001)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou Normal University (Grant No. 2020QDL015)。
文摘Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41975138,42275008)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515010814,2021A1515011415)+1 种基金Science and Technology Development Fund Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020M27)Jiangmen Young science and technology talents lifting Project(2022-2023)。
文摘In this paper,the data of Automatic Weather Stations(AWSs),ERA5 reanalysis,sounding,wind profile radar,and dual-polarization radar are used to study an extreme rainfall event in the south China Coast on 11 to 12 May 2022 from the aspects of thermodynamics and microphysical characteristics under the influence of low-level jets(LLJs).Results show that:(1)The extreme rainfall event can be divided into two stages:the first stage(S1)from 0000 to 0600 LST on May 12 and the second stage(S2)from 0700 to 1700 LST on the same day.During S1,the rainfall is mainly caused by the upper-level shortwave trough and the boundary layer jet(BLJ),characterized by strong upward motion on the windward side of mountains.In S2,the combined influence of the BLJ and synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ)increases the vertical wind shear and vertical vorticity,strengthening the rainstorm.In combination with the effect of topography,a warm and humid southwest flow continuously transports water vapor to farther north,resulting in a significant increase in rainfall over the study area(on the terrain’s windward slope).From S1 to S2,the altitude of a divergence center in the upper air decreases obviously.(2)The rainfalls in the two stages are both associated with the mesoscale convergence line(MCL)on the surface,and the wind field from the mesoscale outflow boundary(MOB)in S1 is in the same direction as the environmental winds.Due to a small area of convergence that is left behind the MOB,convection moves eastward quickly and causes a short duration of heavy rainfall.In S2,the convergence along the MOB is enhanced,which strengthens the rainfall and leads to strong outflows,further enhancing the surface convergence near the MOB and forming a positive feedback mechanism.It results in a slow motion of convection and a long duration of heavy rainfall.(3)In terms of microphysics,the center of a strong echo in S1 is higher than in S2.The warm-rain process of the oceanic type characterizes both stages,but the convective intensity in S2 is significantly stronger than that in S1,featuring bigger drop sizes and lower concentrations.It is mainly due to the strengthening of LLJs,which makes small cloud droplets lift to melting levels,enhancing the ice phase process(riming process),producing large amounts of graupel particles and enhancing the melting and collision processes as they fall,resulting in the increase of liquid water content(LWC)and the formation of large raindrops near the surface.
文摘Based on the NCEP data of the United States, a rainstorm process in South China during September 7 to 8, 2022 was studied. Synoptic method is a qualitative and empirical forecasting method. The results show that: In early September 2022, the cold air behind the trough line from northeast China to North China can directly drive southward and invade South China from the east road. Typhoon Hinnamnor is located in the saddle field between the mainland subtropical high and the offshore subtropical high. It moves northward on the west side of the coastal subtropical high, affecting the Taiwan Island and the coastal areas of East China. During September 7-8, the wave trough of the 925 hPa Easterly wave was located near 110°E. Easterly jet existed in the southeast of South China. The center of the easterly jet was located to the east of Hainan Island, which could transport abundant water vapor from the sea surface to the sky over South China. The precipitable water in the whole layer of the atmosphere decreased from the southern coastal areas to the north, reaching more than 50 mm in southern China, of which most of the South China Sea, Hainan Island and parts of the western part of Guangdong Province exceeded 60 mm, providing sufficient water vapor supply. The circulation field with convergence at low level and divergence at high level is conducive to vertical uplift to form precipitation.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method] Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torrential rain and local heavy rainstorm in Binzhou City during 4-5 August,2010 was analyzed from the circulation situation,physical quantity field,radar echo and so on.[Result] The westerly trough and cold air were the trigger mechanisms of precipitation.The warm wet air flow at the edge of subtropical high and the high-altitude low trough were the main systems of precipitation.It was the typical precipitation process that the northwest of subtropical high overlapped with the westerly trough.In the prior period,the high temperature continued.The cold air at 500 hPa made the convection strengthen.It was the main reason that the local precipitation was strong.In the forecast of rainstorm,the specific humidity,K index and SI index were the good physical quantities and reference indexes.In the formation process of rainstorm,K index had the increasing process.When the rainstorm finished,or the rain intensity weakened,K index decreased obviously.SI index indicated the development of convective precipitation.The radar echo analysis found that the mesocyclone appeared in the process for a short time.For it weakened quickly and disappeared in the shift process,the strong precipitation and gale were formed in the west of Binzou,but the hail wasn't generated.[Conclusion] The research provided the experience for the forecast of such weather in future.
基金Operational Technology Research Team Project of Chongqing Meteorological Service(YWGGTD-201702)Technology Innovation and Application Development Key Project of Chongqing(cstc2019jscx-tjsb X0007)Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(cstc2018jcyj AX0434)。
文摘The structure and organization of the extreme-rain-producing deep convection towers and their roles in the formation of a southwest vortex(SWV)event are studied using the intensified surface rainfall observations,weather radar data and numerical simulations from a high-resolution convection-allowing model.The deep convection towers occurred prior to the emergence of SWV and throughout its onset and development stages.They largely resemble the vortical hot tower(VHT)commonly seen in typhoons or hurricanes and are thus considered as a special type of VHT(sVHT).Each sVHT presented a vorticity dipole structure,with the upward motion not superpose the positive vorticity.A positive feedback process in the SWV helped the organization of sVHTs,which in turn strengthened the initial disturbance and development of SWV.The meso-γ-scale large-value areas of positive relative vorticity in the mid-toupper troposphere were largely induced by the diabatic heating and tilting.The strong mid-level convergence was attributed to the mid-level vortex enhancement.The low-level vortex intensification was mainly due to low-level convergence and the stretching of upward flow.The meso-α-scale large-value areas of positive relative vorticity in the low-level could expand up to about 400 hPa,and gradually weakened with time and height due to the decaying low-level convergence and vertical stretching in the matured SWV.As the SWV matured,two secondary circulations were formed,with a weaker mean radial inflow than the outflow and elevated to 300-400 hPa.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA17010105)National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2018YFC1507104)+2 种基金Science and Technology Development Plan Project of Jilin Province(20180201035SF)Flexible Talents Introducing Project of Xinjiang(2019)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)。
文摘Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort.Allowing for fewer assumptions,a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived in the Cartesian coordinate system(nonhydrostatic equilibrium)and the isobaric coordinate system(hydrostatic equilibrium),respectively.The terms on the right-hand side of the equations,which comprise the Q vector,are composed of three factors:dynamic,thermodynamic,and mass.A heavy rain event that occurred from 18 to 19 July 2021 in southern Xinjiang was selected to analyze the characteristics of the diagnostic variable in the generalized vertical motion equation(Qz)and the diagnostic variable in the generalized Omega equation(Qp)using high-resolution model data.The results show that the horizontal distribution of the Qz-vector divergence at 5.5 km is roughly similar to the distribution of the Qp-vector divergence at 500 hPa,and that both relate well to the composite radar reflectivity,vertical motion,and hourly accumulated precipitation.The Qz-vector divergence is more effective in indicating weak precipitation.In vertical cross sections,regions with alternating positive and negative large values that match the precipitation are mainly concentrated in the middle levels for both forms of Q vectors.The temporal evolutions of vertically integrated Qz-vector divergence and Qp-vector divergence are generally similar.Both perform better than the classical quasigeostrophic Q vector and nongeostrophic Q vector in indicating the development of the precipitation system.
文摘Studies based on AC high voltage tests have been done at Cepel to investigate the performance of 800 kV busbar insulators under heavy wetting conditions.Insulators were tested which are now used on site and also with different configurations of booster sheds.Images recorded by ultra-violet(UV) camera were used to help the investigations on the effectiveness of booster sheds.By comparing UV images of the insulator being stressed with high voltage under heavy artificial rain,with and without booster sheds,it was possible to observe how significant the reduction on the flashover formation process was when booster sheds were used.The effectiveness of booster sheds was also quantified by determining the disruptive discharge of the insulator with and without them.The results of these studies can also be considered as contribution to national and international standard technical committees to improving the standardized procedure for tests on ultra high voltage(UHV) insulators under heavy rain.Subjects such as the clear definition of relevant UHV test procedure and test arrangements,including the use of UV camera,have to be taken into account.
基金Jiangsu Province Natural Science Fund(BK20131459)Science and Technology Department Social Development Project(BE2011818)+1 种基金National Meteorological Public Professional Science and Technology Program of China(GYHY201306010)National Sci-Tech Support Plan(2011BAK21B04)
文摘Based on intensive automatic weather station data, satellite cloud imagery, NCEP reanalyzed data, and the simulation results from mesoscale numerical models, this study analyzes the characteristics and formation mechanisms of the mesoscale convection system(MCS) during the extreme precipitation event that was triggered by a weakened low-pressure inverted trough of Typhoon Haikui on August 10/2012. The results of this study show that cold air at the rear of a northeastern cold vortex creates thermodynamic conditions favorable to the development of extreme precipitation. The main body of the cold air is northward located so that the cold air invades only the middle layer of the periphery of the inverted trough. Thus, the cold air minimally affects the lower layer, which results in a vertically distributed structure of the temperature advection that augments the formation and development of convective instability stratification. In the middle troposphere, the cold air encounters the convergent, ascending, warm moist air from the low-pressure inverted trough, leading to frontogenesis. The frontogenesis enhances wind convergence which, in turn, further enhances the frontogenesis, and the positive feedback between these two forces augments the development of meso- and small-scale convection systems in the rainstorm region and its vicinity, which strengthens the upward transportation of water vapor from low layers and thickening of water vapor convergence and results in local heavy rains.
基金support of“Research Program for Agriculture Science&Technology Development(PJ011397)”Rural Development Administration,Republic of Korea.
文摘This study focuses on the analysis of the effect of meteorological disasters on film plastic greenhouses by typhoons,heavy snow,strong wind,and heavy rain.The data of meteorological disasters from 1998 to 2015 were analyzed on provincial basis to calculate the damage rate depending on the weather cause.The cumulative damage area is 20279 hm2.The damage rates of typhoons,heavy snow,strong wind,and heavy rain are 46.4%,47.4%,2.5%,and 3.8%,respectively.The damage index of the greenhouse,which is the ratio of the greenhouse area to the cumulative damage area,was proposed to estimate the disaster risk for 17 administrative districts.The damage index data and the cumulative damage areas were divided using the Jenks’Natural Breaks method.The average damage index is 0.66,and the damage indices are high in the metropolitan cities.
