This paper analyses the climate change in La Plata Basin, one of the most important regions in South America due to its economy and population. For this work it has been used the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI...This paper analyses the climate change in La Plata Basin, one of the most important regions in South America due to its economy and population. For this work it has been used the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) atmospheric global model. For both near and far future, the projected changes for temperature over the entire basin were positive, although they were only statistically significant at the end of the XXI century. Changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature were also positive in all subregions of the basin. Regarding precipitation, there were no changes in the near future that were statistically significant. The summer (winter) is the only season where both models project positive (negative) changes for both periods of the future. In the transitional seasons these changes vary depending on the spatial resolution model and the area of study. The annual cycle showed that the largest changes in precipitation (positive or negative) coincide with the rainy season of each subregion. Regarding the interannual variability of temperature, it was found that the 20 km. model pro-jected a decrease of this variability for both near and far future, especially in summer and autumn. On the other hand, the 60 km. ensemble model showed a decreased of year-to-year variability for summer and an increase in winter and spring. It was also found that both models project an increase in precipitation variability for winter and summer, while in other seasons, only the 60 km. ensemble model presents the mentioned behavior.展开更多
This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in me...This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in mean climate, as well as in the annual cycles and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are discussed. An analysis is also made of the uncertainties of the 60 km resolution model experiments. For the near and distant future, both, the 20 km and 60 km resolution MRI/JMA models project that temperature changes will be positive in all seasons. The greatest values of change are over the Andes and over tropical and subtropical latitudes of the study region. In all the subregions analysed, the 20 km model projects greater changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature than the 60 km model. Changes in summer precipitation are positive over most of the continent, except for southern Chile. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase over northern Argentina and north-western South America and to decrease over central Chile in winter, which might be due to the southward shift of the Pacific storm-track. The most significant positive change in Southeastern South America (SESA) is projected to occur in spring precipitation. In general, projected changes in the annual cycle are greater in the rainy seasons of each subregion. No significant changes are expected in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. La Plata basin is projected to experience increased runoff, which would indicate that the projected rise in precipitation would have stronger effect than projected warming. The analysis of climate projection uncertainties revealed that temperature projections are more reliable than precipitation projections;and that uncertainty in near future simulations is greater than in simulations of the end of the century.展开更多
The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Proje...The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Project （CMIP） from phase 1 （CMIP1） to phase 4 （CMIP4）. The Chinese contribution to CMIP is summarized, and the major achievements from CMIP1 to CMIP3 are listed as a reference for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese models. After a description of CMIP5 experiments, the five Chinese models that participated in CMIP5 are then introduced. Furthermore, following a review of the current status of international model development, both the challenges and opportunities for the Chinese climate modeling community are discussed. The development of high-resolution climate models, earth system mod- els, and improvements in atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, which are core components of earth/climate system models, are highlighted. To guarantee the sustainable development of climate system models in China, the need for national-level coordination is discussed, along with a list of the main compo- nents and supporting elements identified by the US National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.展开更多
2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期。本文基于CRU（Climatic Research Unit）观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5...2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期。本文基于CRU（Climatic Research Unit）观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）试验多模式对全球变暖减缓的模拟及未来气温变化预估。结果表明,2000年后全球陆地平均地面气温的增温率大幅下降至0.14°C（10 a）-1,仅为1976~1999年加速期增温率的一半。全球陆地13个区域中有9个地区的增温率小于2000年前,4个地区甚至出现了降温。其中以欧亚中高纬地区最为特殊。加速期（1976~1999年）增温率达到0.50°C（10 a）-1,为全球陆地最大,2000年后陡降至-0.17°C（10 a）-1,为全球最强降温区,为全球变暖的减缓贡献了49.13%。并且具有显著的季节依赖,减缓期冬季增温率下降了-2.68°C（10a）-1,而秋季升高了0.86°C（10 a）-1,呈现反位相变化特征。CMIP5多模式计划中仅BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下和MRI-ESM1模式在RCP8.5下的模拟较好地预估了全球及欧亚中高纬地区在2000年后增温率的下降以及欧亚中高纬秋、冬温度的反位相变化特征。BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下预估欧亚中高纬地区2012年后温度距平保持在1.2°C左右,2020年后跃至2°C附近振荡。而MRI-ESM1在RCP8.5情景下预估的欧亚中高纬度温度在2030年前一直维持几乎为零的增温率,之后迅速升高。展开更多
使用日本气象研究所(Meteorological Research Institute,MRI)大气环流模式在20 km分辨率下的国际大气模式比较计划(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project,AMIP)试验结果以及A1B温室气体排放情景下(简称A1B情景)的预估试验数据,...使用日本气象研究所(Meteorological Research Institute,MRI)大气环流模式在20 km分辨率下的国际大气模式比较计划(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project,AMIP)试验结果以及A1B温室气体排放情景下(简称A1B情景)的预估试验数据,预估了青藏高原夏季(6—8月)降水的变化,并讨论了降水变化的可能原因。在A1B情景下,青藏高原夏季降水量显著增加,中心位于青藏高原东南部,主要归因于来自印度洋和孟加拉湾的西南水汽,经90°E—100°E附近进入高原的水汽输送显著增加。同时,整个青藏高原夏季强降水出现概率增加,降水频率南部减少,北部增加。高原南部(北部)降水频率的减少(增加)是因为该地区降水强度的增加速率快(慢)于降水量的增加速率。高分辨率MRI模式预估的青藏高原夏季降水变化与较低分辨率的耦合模式预估结果基本一致,但提供了更详细的局地变化信息。展开更多
基金funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme(FP7/2007-2013),under Grant Agreement N°212492.
文摘This paper analyses the climate change in La Plata Basin, one of the most important regions in South America due to its economy and population. For this work it has been used the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) atmospheric global model. For both near and far future, the projected changes for temperature over the entire basin were positive, although they were only statistically significant at the end of the XXI century. Changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature were also positive in all subregions of the basin. Regarding precipitation, there were no changes in the near future that were statistically significant. The summer (winter) is the only season where both models project positive (negative) changes for both periods of the future. In the transitional seasons these changes vary depending on the spatial resolution model and the area of study. The annual cycle showed that the largest changes in precipitation (positive or negative) coincide with the rainy season of each subregion. Regarding the interannual variability of temperature, it was found that the 20 km. model pro-jected a decrease of this variability for both near and far future, especially in summer and autumn. On the other hand, the 60 km. ensemble model showed a decreased of year-to-year variability for summer and an increase in winter and spring. It was also found that both models project an increase in precipitation variability for winter and summer, while in other seasons, only the 60 km. ensemble model presents the mentioned behavior.
基金partially supported by UBACYT-1028,PIP CONICET 112-200801-00195 and CLARIS-LPB(A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin).
文摘This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in mean climate, as well as in the annual cycles and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are discussed. An analysis is also made of the uncertainties of the 60 km resolution model experiments. For the near and distant future, both, the 20 km and 60 km resolution MRI/JMA models project that temperature changes will be positive in all seasons. The greatest values of change are over the Andes and over tropical and subtropical latitudes of the study region. In all the subregions analysed, the 20 km model projects greater changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature than the 60 km model. Changes in summer precipitation are positive over most of the continent, except for southern Chile. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase over northern Argentina and north-western South America and to decrease over central Chile in winter, which might be due to the southward shift of the Pacific storm-track. The most significant positive change in Southeastern South America (SESA) is projected to occur in spring precipitation. In general, projected changes in the annual cycle are greater in the rainy seasons of each subregion. No significant changes are expected in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. La Plata basin is projected to experience increased runoff, which would indicate that the projected rise in precipitation would have stronger effect than projected warming. The analysis of climate projection uncertainties revealed that temperature projections are more reliable than precipitation projections;and that uncertainty in near future simulations is greater than in simulations of the end of the century.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41125017 and 41330423)LASG/IAP Funding for the Development of Climate System Model
文摘The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Project （CMIP） from phase 1 （CMIP1） to phase 4 （CMIP4）. The Chinese contribution to CMIP is summarized, and the major achievements from CMIP1 to CMIP3 are listed as a reference for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese models. After a description of CMIP5 experiments, the five Chinese models that participated in CMIP5 are then introduced. Furthermore, following a review of the current status of international model development, both the challenges and opportunities for the Chinese climate modeling community are discussed. The development of high-resolution climate models, earth system mod- els, and improvements in atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, which are core components of earth/climate system models, are highlighted. To guarantee the sustainable development of climate system models in China, the need for national-level coordination is discussed, along with a list of the main compo- nents and supporting elements identified by the US National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.
文摘使用日本气象研究所(Meteorological Research Institute,MRI)大气环流模式在20 km分辨率下的国际大气模式比较计划(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project,AMIP)试验结果以及A1B温室气体排放情景下(简称A1B情景)的预估试验数据,预估了青藏高原夏季(6—8月)降水的变化,并讨论了降水变化的可能原因。在A1B情景下,青藏高原夏季降水量显著增加,中心位于青藏高原东南部,主要归因于来自印度洋和孟加拉湾的西南水汽,经90°E—100°E附近进入高原的水汽输送显著增加。同时,整个青藏高原夏季强降水出现概率增加,降水频率南部减少,北部增加。高原南部(北部)降水频率的减少(增加)是因为该地区降水强度的增加速率快(慢)于降水量的增加速率。高分辨率MRI模式预估的青藏高原夏季降水变化与较低分辨率的耦合模式预估结果基本一致,但提供了更详细的局地变化信息。
