The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nifio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time E1 Nifio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the...The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nifio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time E1 Nifio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the inten- sity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model （ICM） is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IOCAS）, named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temper- ature （SST） evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 E! Nifio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer （Te） is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model＇s ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in E1 Nifio- Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and pre- dicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predictecl to occur in rote spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.展开更多
A new hybrid coupled model(HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate oc...A new hybrid coupled model(HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate ocean model(IOM)of the intermediate coupled model(ICM) used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS). The atmospheric component is ECHAM5, the fifth version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model. The HCM integrates its atmospheric and oceanic components by using an anomaly coupling strategy. A100-year simulation has been made with the HCM and its simulation skills are evaluated, including the interannual variability of SST over the tropical Pacific and the ENSO-related responses of the global atmosphere. The model shows irregular occurrence of ENSO events with a spectral range between two and five years. The amplitude and lifetime of ENSO events and the annual phase-locking of SST anomalies are also reproduced realistically. Despite the slightly stronger variance of SST anomalies over the central Pacific than observed in the HCM, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies related to ENSO,such as sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation, are in broad agreement with observations. Therefore, this model can not only simulate the ENSO variability, but also reproduce the global atmospheric variability associated with ENSO, thereby providing a useful modeling tool for ENSO studies. Further model applications of ENSO modulations by ocean–atmosphere processes, and of ENSO-related climate prediction, are also discussed.展开更多
Every institute in the world has its own history,culture,and legacy that show its unique characters.As an oldest,largest,and one of the most advanced institute in marine sciences in China,the Institute of Oceanology,C...Every institute in the world has its own history,culture,and legacy that show its unique characters.As an oldest,largest,and one of the most advanced institute in marine sciences in China,the Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS)was established by her founders in 1950 and cherished by her successors ever since.IOCAS has undertaken her own development roadmap over the last seventy years.Many people know its history,achievements,and contributions in marine sciences,but few would know the stories behind the success.This paper intends to reveal the driven factors pushing the institute forward in the past,present,and future.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41490644,41475101 and41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project+1 种基金the Western Pacific Ocean System(XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(U1406401)
文摘The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nifio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time E1 Nifio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the inten- sity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model （ICM） is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IOCAS）, named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temper- ature （SST） evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 E! Nifio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer （Te） is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model＇s ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in E1 Nifio- Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and pre- dicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predictecl to occur in rote spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NFSCGrant No. 41706016)+3 种基金the National Programme on Global Change and Air– Sea Interaction (Grant No. GASI-IPOVAI-06)the NFSC [Grant Nos. 41690122(41690120), 41606019 and 41421005]the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19060102)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406402)
文摘A new hybrid coupled model(HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate ocean model(IOM)of the intermediate coupled model(ICM) used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS). The atmospheric component is ECHAM5, the fifth version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model. The HCM integrates its atmospheric and oceanic components by using an anomaly coupling strategy. A100-year simulation has been made with the HCM and its simulation skills are evaluated, including the interannual variability of SST over the tropical Pacific and the ENSO-related responses of the global atmosphere. The model shows irregular occurrence of ENSO events with a spectral range between two and five years. The amplitude and lifetime of ENSO events and the annual phase-locking of SST anomalies are also reproduced realistically. Despite the slightly stronger variance of SST anomalies over the central Pacific than observed in the HCM, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies related to ENSO,such as sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation, are in broad agreement with observations. Therefore, this model can not only simulate the ENSO variability, but also reproduce the global atmospheric variability associated with ENSO, thereby providing a useful modeling tool for ENSO studies. Further model applications of ENSO modulations by ocean–atmosphere processes, and of ENSO-related climate prediction, are also discussed.
文摘Every institute in the world has its own history,culture,and legacy that show its unique characters.As an oldest,largest,and one of the most advanced institute in marine sciences in China,the Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS)was established by her founders in 1950 and cherished by her successors ever since.IOCAS has undertaken her own development roadmap over the last seventy years.Many people know its history,achievements,and contributions in marine sciences,but few would know the stories behind the success.This paper intends to reveal the driven factors pushing the institute forward in the past,present,and future.
