Objective To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.Methods...Objective To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.Methods Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System(TBIMS)from 2005 to 2020,we calculated the annual percentage change(APC)using the Joinpoint regression model.Results From 2005 to 2020,a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China,with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population.The age standardization rate(ASR)continued to decline from 116.9(/100,000)in 2005 to 47.6(/100,000)in 2020,with an average annual decrease of5.6%[APC=-5.6,95%confidence interval(CI):-7.0 to-4.2].The smallest decline occurred in2011–2018(APC=-3.4,95%CI:-4.6 to-2.3)and the largest decrease in 2018–2020(APC=-9.2,95%CI:-16.4 to-1.3).From 2005 to 2020,the ASR in males(159.8 per 100,000 in 2005,72.0 per 100,000 in2020)was higher than that in females(62.2 per 100,000 in 2005,32.3 per 100,000 in 2020),with an average annual decline of 6.0%for male and 4.9%for female.The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults(65 years and over)(182.3/100,000),with an average annual decline of6.4%;children(0–14 years)were the lowest(4.8/100,000),with an average annual decline of 7.3%,but a significant increase of 3.3%between 2014 and 2020(APC=3.3,95%CI:1.4 to 5.2);middle-aged(35–64years)decreased by 5.8%;and youth(15–34 years)decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%.The average ASR in rural areas(81.3/100,000)is higher than that in urban areas(76.1/100,000).The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5%and 6.3%in urban areas.South China had the highest average ASR(103.2/100,000),with an average annual decline of 5.9%,while North China had the lowest(56.5/100,000),with an average annual decline of 5.9%.The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3(/100,000),with the smallest annual decline(APC=-4.5,95%CI:-5.5 to-3.5);the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1(/100,000),with the largest annual decline(APC=-6.4,95%CI:-10.0 to-2.7);Central,Northeastern,and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%,6.2%,and 6.1%per year,respectively.Conclusions From 2005 to 2020,the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline,falling by55%.For high-risk groups such as males,older adults,high-burden areas in South,Southwest,and Northwest China,and rural regions,proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases.There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years,the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.展开更多
Background:This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022,and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.Method...Background:This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022,and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.Methods:Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention(CISDCP).The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends,while the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model assessed the effects of age,period,and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates.We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive(NNAR)Model,Bayesian Structural Time Series(BSTS)Model,Prophet,Exponential Smoothing(ETS)Model,Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)Model,and Hybrid Model,selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.Results:Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend,with rates higher in men than in women.Higher incidence rates were observed in adults,particularly in the 30-39 age group.Moreover,the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend.Furthermore,in the best-performing NNAR(10,1,6)[12]model,the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023,increasing to 5314 by 2027.展开更多
Background:The incidence of hepatitis B virus(HBV)has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination,but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China.Methods:The year-by-year i...Background:The incidence of hepatitis B virus(HBV)has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination,but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China.Methods:The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected.The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering,and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model(APC).Results:Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females.In addition,the results of the APC model showed that the age,period,and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV,and the incidence was higher in males than in females.The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years(mean:21.76/100,000),especially in males(mean:31.53/100,000)than in females(mean:11.67/100,000).Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age(mean:21.40/100,000),especially males(mean:31.17/100,000)than females(mean:11.63/100,000).The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population.Conclusions:The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend,but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females.The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age.More targeted prevention and control measures should be imple-mented for males and the elderly.展开更多
基金supported by China CDC's Public Health and Emergency Response Mechanism Programme[131031001000150001]FIDELIS-Hubei TB Program[No.2004-fid-4-034].
文摘Objective To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.Methods Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System(TBIMS)from 2005 to 2020,we calculated the annual percentage change(APC)using the Joinpoint regression model.Results From 2005 to 2020,a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China,with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population.The age standardization rate(ASR)continued to decline from 116.9(/100,000)in 2005 to 47.6(/100,000)in 2020,with an average annual decrease of5.6%[APC=-5.6,95%confidence interval(CI):-7.0 to-4.2].The smallest decline occurred in2011–2018(APC=-3.4,95%CI:-4.6 to-2.3)and the largest decrease in 2018–2020(APC=-9.2,95%CI:-16.4 to-1.3).From 2005 to 2020,the ASR in males(159.8 per 100,000 in 2005,72.0 per 100,000 in2020)was higher than that in females(62.2 per 100,000 in 2005,32.3 per 100,000 in 2020),with an average annual decline of 6.0%for male and 4.9%for female.The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults(65 years and over)(182.3/100,000),with an average annual decline of6.4%;children(0–14 years)were the lowest(4.8/100,000),with an average annual decline of 7.3%,but a significant increase of 3.3%between 2014 and 2020(APC=3.3,95%CI:1.4 to 5.2);middle-aged(35–64years)decreased by 5.8%;and youth(15–34 years)decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%.The average ASR in rural areas(81.3/100,000)is higher than that in urban areas(76.1/100,000).The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5%and 6.3%in urban areas.South China had the highest average ASR(103.2/100,000),with an average annual decline of 5.9%,while North China had the lowest(56.5/100,000),with an average annual decline of 5.9%.The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3(/100,000),with the smallest annual decline(APC=-4.5,95%CI:-5.5 to-3.5);the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1(/100,000),with the largest annual decline(APC=-6.4,95%CI:-10.0 to-2.7);Central,Northeastern,and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%,6.2%,and 6.1%per year,respectively.Conclusions From 2005 to 2020,the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline,falling by55%.For high-risk groups such as males,older adults,high-burden areas in South,Southwest,and Northwest China,and rural regions,proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases.There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years,the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.
基金funded by Xiamen Medical and Health Key Project[grant numbers 3502Z20191105].
文摘Background:This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022,and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.Methods:Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention(CISDCP).The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends,while the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model assessed the effects of age,period,and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates.We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive(NNAR)Model,Bayesian Structural Time Series(BSTS)Model,Prophet,Exponential Smoothing(ETS)Model,Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)Model,and Hybrid Model,selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.Results:Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend,with rates higher in men than in women.Higher incidence rates were observed in adults,particularly in the 30-39 age group.Moreover,the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend.Furthermore,in the best-performing NNAR(10,1,6)[12]model,the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023,increasing to 5314 by 2027.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,20720230001self-supporting Program of Guangzhou Laboratory,SRPG22-007research Project on Education and Teaching Reform of Undergraduate Universities of Fujian Province,FBJG20210260.
文摘Background:The incidence of hepatitis B virus(HBV)has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination,but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China.Methods:The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected.The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering,and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model(APC).Results:Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females.In addition,the results of the APC model showed that the age,period,and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV,and the incidence was higher in males than in females.The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years(mean:21.76/100,000),especially in males(mean:31.53/100,000)than in females(mean:11.67/100,000).Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age(mean:21.40/100,000),especially males(mean:31.17/100,000)than females(mean:11.63/100,000).The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population.Conclusions:The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend,but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females.The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age.More targeted prevention and control measures should be imple-mented for males and the elderly.
