BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there hav...BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.展开更多
The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and...The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location.展开更多
This paper uses Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy se theory on historical traffic volume data processing to obtain a 24-hour prediction of traffic volume with high precision. A K-means clustering method is used in this p...This paper uses Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy se theory on historical traffic volume data processing to obtain a 24-hour prediction of traffic volume with high precision. A K-means clustering method is used in this paper to get 5 minutes traffic volume variation as input data for the Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets which can reflect the distribution of historical traffic volume in one statistical period. Moreover, the cluster with the largest collection of data obtained by K-means clustering method is calculated to get the key parameters of type-2 fuzzy sets, mean and standard deviation of the Gaussian membership function.Using the range of data as the input of Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets leads to the range of traffic volume forecasting output with the ability of describing the possible range of the traffic volume as well as the traffic volume prediction data with high accuracy. The simulation results show that the average relative error is reduced to 8% based on the combined K-means Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets forecasting method. The fluctuation range in terms of an upper and a lower forecasting traffic volume completely envelopes the actual traffic volume and reproduces the fluctuation range of traffic flow.展开更多
Knowing the long-term degradation trajectory of Lithium-ion(Li-ion) battery in its early usage stage is critical for the maintenance of the battery energy storage system(BESS) in reality. Previous battery health diagn...Knowing the long-term degradation trajectory of Lithium-ion(Li-ion) battery in its early usage stage is critical for the maintenance of the battery energy storage system(BESS) in reality. Previous battery health diagnosis methods focus on capacity and state of health(SOH) estimation which can receive only the short-term health status of the cell. This paper proposes a novel degradation trajectory prediction method with synthetic dataset and deep learning, which enables to grasp the characterization of the cell's health at a very early stage of Li-ion battery usage. A transferred convolutional neural network(CNN) is chosen to finalize the early prediction target, and the polynomial function based synthetic dataset generation strategy is designed to reduce the costly data collection procedure in real application. In this thread, the proposed method needs one full lifespan data to predict the overall degradation trajectories of other cells. With only the full lifespan cycling data from 4 cells and 100 cycling data from each cell in experimental validation, the proposed method shows a good prediction accuracy on a dataset with more than 100 commercial Li-ion batteries.展开更多
How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anti...How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. Different from ＇traditional techniques （or regimes）＇ proposed in the previous literature, the present scheme guarantees that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.展开更多
For the on-orbit flight missions,the model of orbit prediction is critical for the tasks with high accuracy requirement and limited computing resources of spacecraft.The precession-nutation model,as the main part of e...For the on-orbit flight missions,the model of orbit prediction is critical for the tasks with high accuracy requirement and limited computing resources of spacecraft.The precession-nutation model,as the main part of extended orbit prediction,affects the efficiency and accuracy of on-board operation.In this paper,the previous research about the conversion between the Geocentric Celestial Reference System and International Terrestrial Reference System is briefly summarized,and a practical concise precession-nutation model is proposed for coordinate transformation computation based on Celestial Intermediate Pole(CIP).The idea that simplifying the CIP-based model with interpolation method is driven by characteristics of precession-nutation parameters changing with time.A cubic spline interpolation algorithm is applied to obtain the required CIP coordinates and Celestial Intermediate Origin locator.The complete precession nutation model containing more than 4000 parameters is simplified to the calculation of a cubic polynomial,which greatly reduces the computational load.In addition,for evaluating the actual performance,an orbit propagator is built with the proposed simplified precession-nutationmodel.Compared with the orbit prediction results obtained by the truncated series of IAU2000/2006 precession-nutation model,the simplified precession-nutation model with cubic spline interpolation can significantly improve the accuracy of orbit prediction,which implicates great practical application value in further on-orbit missions of spacecraft.展开更多
Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the...Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.展开更多
Objective To measure the toxicity of phenol, aniline, and their derivatives to algae and to assess, model, and predict the toxicity using quantitative structure-activity relationship （QSAR） method. Methods Oxygen pr...Objective To measure the toxicity of phenol, aniline, and their derivatives to algae and to assess, model, and predict the toxicity using quantitative structure-activity relationship （QSAR） method. Methods Oxygen production was used as the response endpoint for assessing the toxic effects of chemicals on algal photosynthesis. The energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital （ELUMO） and the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital （EHOMO） were obtained from the ChemOffice 2004 program using the quantum chemical method MOPAC, and the frontier orbital energy gap （△E） was obtained. Results The compounds exhibited a reasonably wide range of algal toxicity. The most toxic compound was α-naphthol, whereas the least toxic one was aniline. A two-descriptor model was derived from the algal toxicity and structural parameters： logl/EC50=0.2681ogKow-1.006△E＋11.769 （n=20, r^2=0.946）. This model was stable and satisfactory for predicting toxicity. Conclusion Phenol, aniline, and their derivatives are polar narcotics. Their toxicity is greater than estimated by hydrophobicity only, and addition of the frontier orbital energy gap AE can significantly improve the prediction of logKow-dependent models.展开更多
To optimize cutting control parameters and provide scientific evidence for controlling cutting forces,cutting force modeling and cutting control parameter optimization are researched with one tool adopted to orbital d...To optimize cutting control parameters and provide scientific evidence for controlling cutting forces,cutting force modeling and cutting control parameter optimization are researched with one tool adopted to orbital drill holes in aluminum alloy 6061.Firstly,four cutting control parameters(tool rotation speed,tool revolution speed,axial feeding pitch and tool revolution radius)and affecting cutting forces are identified after orbital drilling kinematics analysis.Secondly,hybrid level orthogonal experiment method is utilized in modeling experiment.By nonlinear regression analysis,two quadratic prediction models for axial and radial forces are established,where the above four control parameters are used as input variables.Then,model accuracy and cutting control parameters are analyzed.Upon axial and radial forces models,two optimal combinations of cutting control parameters are obtained for processing a13mm hole,corresponding to the minimum axial force and the radial force respectively.Finally,each optimal combination is applied in verification experiment.The verification experiment results of cutting force are in good agreement with prediction model,which confirms accracy of the research method in practical production.展开更多
A lightweight multi-layer residual temporal convolutional network model(RTCN)is proposed to target the highly complex kinematics and temporal correlation of human motion.RTCN uses 1-D convolution to efficiently obtain...A lightweight multi-layer residual temporal convolutional network model(RTCN)is proposed to target the highly complex kinematics and temporal correlation of human motion.RTCN uses 1-D convolution to efficiently obtain the spatial structure information of human motion and extract the correlation in the time series of human motion.The residual structure is applied to the proposed network model to alleviate the problem of gradient disappearance in the deep network.Experiments on the Human 3.6M dataset demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reduces the errors of motion prediction compared with previous methods,especially of long-term prediction.展开更多
Software fault prediction is one of the most fundamental but significant management techniques in software dependability assessment. In this paper we concern the software fault prediction using a multilayer-perceptron...Software fault prediction is one of the most fundamental but significant management techniques in software dependability assessment. In this paper we concern the software fault prediction using a multilayer-perceptron neural network, where the underlying software fault count data are transformed to the Gaussian data, by means of the well-known Box-Cox power transformation. More specially, we investigate the long-term behavior of software fault counts by the neural network, and perform the multi-stage look ahead prediction of the cumulative number of software faults detected in the future software testing. In numerical examples with two actual software fault data sets, we compare our neural network approach with the existing software reliability growth models based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in terms of predictive performance with average relative error, and show that the data transformation employed in this paper leads to an improvement in prediction accuracy.展开更多
Two-Line Element(TLE)datasets are the only orbital data source of Earth-orbiting space objects for many civil users for their research and applications.The datasets have uneven qualities that may affect the reliabilit...Two-Line Element(TLE)datasets are the only orbital data source of Earth-orbiting space objects for many civil users for their research and applications.The datasets have uneven qualities that may affect the reliability of the propagated positions of space objects using a single TLE.The least squares approach to use multiple TLEs also suffers from the poor quality of some TLEs,and reliable error information cannot be available.This paper proposes a simplex algorithm to estimate an optimal TLE from multiple TLEs and obtain the uncertainty of each element.It is a derivative-free technique that can deal with various orbit types.Experiments have demonstrated that using the TLE estimated from the simplex method is more reliable,stable,and effective than those from the batch least squares method.As an application example,the optimal TLE and its uncertainty are used for predicting the fallen area,keeping the actual fallen site in the prediction areas.展开更多
A large body of evidence links ambient fine particulates (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) to chronic disease. Efforts continue to be made to improve large scale estimation of this pollutant for within-urban environments...A large body of evidence links ambient fine particulates (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) to chronic disease. Efforts continue to be made to improve large scale estimation of this pollutant for within-urban environments and sparsely monitored areas. Still questions remain about modeling choices. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of spatial only models in predicting national monthly exposure estimates of fine particulate matter at different time aggregations during the time period 2000-2009 for the contiguous United States. Additional goals were to evaluate the difference in prediction between federal reference monitors and non-reference monitors, assess regional differences, and compare with traditional methods. Using spatial generalized additive models (GAM), national models for fine particulate matter were developed, incorporating geographical information systems (GIS)-derived covariates and meteorological variables. Results were compared to nearest monitor and inverse distance weighting at different time aggregations and a comparison was made between the Federal Reference Method and all monitors. Cross-validation was used for model evaluation. Using all monitors, the cross-validated R<sup>2</sup> was 0.76, 0.81, and 0.82 for monthly, 1 year, and 5-year aggregations, respectively. A small decrease in performance was observed when selecting Federal Reference monitors only (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.73, 0.78, and 0.80 respectively). For Inverse distance weighting (IDW), there was a significantly larger decrease in R<sup>2</sup> (0.68, 0.71, and 0.73, respectively). The spatial GAM showed the weakest performance for the northwest region. In conclusion, National exposure estimates of fine particulates at different time aggregations can be significantly improved over traditional methods by using spatial GAMs that are relatively easy to produce. Furthermore, these models are comparable in performance to other national prediction models.展开更多
Objective To explore quantitative electroencephalography in unconscious patients after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) to predict awakening. Methods All cases were divided into two groups(the awake group 19 cases ...Objective To explore quantitative electroencephalography in unconscious patients after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) to predict awakening. Methods All cases were divided into two groups(the awake group 19 cases and the unfavourable prognosis group 22 cases).Two weeks after admission the original EEGs were preformed in 41 patients suffering from severe TBI with duration of disturbance of展开更多
Background: Risk stratification of long-term outcomes for patients undergoing Coronary artery bypass grafting has enormous potential clinical importance. Aim: To develop risk stratification models for predicting long-...Background: Risk stratification of long-term outcomes for patients undergoing Coronary artery bypass grafting has enormous potential clinical importance. Aim: To develop risk stratification models for predicting long-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods: We retrospectively revised the electronic medical records of 2330 patients who underwent adult Cardiac surgery between August 2016 and December 2022 at Madinah Cardiac Center, Saudi Arabia. Three hundred patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria of CABG operations with a complete follow-up period of at least 24 months, and data reporting. The collected data included patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data, pharmacotherapy, echocardiographic parameters, procedural details, postoperative data, in-hospital outcomes, and follow-up data. Our follow-up was depending on the clinical status (NYHA class), chest pain recurrence, medication dependence and echo follow-up. A univariate analysis was performed between each patient risk factor and the long-term outcome to determine the preoperative, operative, and postoperative factors significantly associated with each long-term outcome. Then a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with a stepwise, forward selection procedure. Significant (p < 0.05) risk factors were identified and were used as candidate variables in the development of a multivariable risk prediction model. Results: The incidence of all-cause mortality during hospital admission or follow-up period was 2.3%. Other long-term outcomes included all-cause recurrent hospitalization (9.8%), recurrent chest pain (2.4%), and the need for revascularization by using a stent in 5 (3.0%) patients. Thirteen (4.4%) patients suffered heart failure and they were on the maximum anti-failure medications. The model for predicting all-cause mortality included the preoperative EF ≤ 35% (AOR: 30.757, p = 0.061), the bypass time (AOR: 1.029, p = 0.003), and the duration of ventilation following the operation (AOR: 1.237, p = 0.021). The model for risk stratification of recurrent hospitalization comprised the preoperative EF ≤ 35% (AOR: 6.198, p p = 0.023), low postoperative cardiac output (AOR: 3.622, p = 0.007), and the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AOR: 2.787, p = 0.038). Low postoperative cardiac output was the only predictor that significantly contributed to recurrent chest pain (AOR: 11.66, p = 0.004). Finally, the model consisted of low postoperative cardiac output (AOR: 5.976, p < 0.001) and postoperative ventricular fibrillation (AOR: 4.216, p = 0.019) was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of the future need for revascularization using a stent. Conclusions: A risk prediction model was developed in a Saudi cohort for predicting all-cause mortality risk during both hospital admission and the follow-up period of at least 24 months after isolated CABG surgery. A set of models were also developed for predicting long-term risks of all-cause recurrent hospitalization, recurrent chest pain, heart failure, and the need for revascularization by using stents.展开更多
基金Supported by the Talent Training Plan during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period of Beijing Shijitan Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University,No.2023LJRCLFQ.
文摘BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41506044the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1606405+2 种基金the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-05the International Cooperation Project on the China-Australia Research Centre for Maritime Engineering of Ministry of Science and Technology,China under contract No.2016YFE0101400the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology through the Transparency Program of Pacific Ocean-South China Sea-Indian Ocean under contract No.2015ASKJ01
文摘The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFB1201500)
文摘This paper uses Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy se theory on historical traffic volume data processing to obtain a 24-hour prediction of traffic volume with high precision. A K-means clustering method is used in this paper to get 5 minutes traffic volume variation as input data for the Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets which can reflect the distribution of historical traffic volume in one statistical period. Moreover, the cluster with the largest collection of data obtained by K-means clustering method is calculated to get the key parameters of type-2 fuzzy sets, mean and standard deviation of the Gaussian membership function.Using the range of data as the input of Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets leads to the range of traffic volume forecasting output with the ability of describing the possible range of the traffic volume as well as the traffic volume prediction data with high accuracy. The simulation results show that the average relative error is reduced to 8% based on the combined K-means Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets forecasting method. The fluctuation range in terms of an upper and a lower forecasting traffic volume completely envelopes the actual traffic volume and reproduces the fluctuation range of traffic flow.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52107229, 62203423, and 61903114)in part by the Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation (2022J01504)。
文摘Knowing the long-term degradation trajectory of Lithium-ion(Li-ion) battery in its early usage stage is critical for the maintenance of the battery energy storage system(BESS) in reality. Previous battery health diagnosis methods focus on capacity and state of health(SOH) estimation which can receive only the short-term health status of the cell. This paper proposes a novel degradation trajectory prediction method with synthetic dataset and deep learning, which enables to grasp the characterization of the cell's health at a very early stage of Li-ion battery usage. A transferred convolutional neural network(CNN) is chosen to finalize the early prediction target, and the polynomial function based synthetic dataset generation strategy is designed to reduce the costly data collection procedure in real application. In this thread, the proposed method needs one full lifespan data to predict the overall degradation trajectories of other cells. With only the full lifespan cycling data from 4 cells and 100 cycling data from each cell in experimental validation, the proposed method shows a good prediction accuracy on a dataset with more than 100 commercial Li-ion batteries.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 10472091 and 10502042） and the Scientific and Technological Innovation Foundation for Young Teachers of Northwestern Polytechnical University, China.
文摘How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. Different from ＇traditional techniques （or regimes）＇ proposed in the previous literature, the present scheme guarantees that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.
基金The authors would like to express gratitude for supporting funding from the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51905272).
文摘For the on-orbit flight missions,the model of orbit prediction is critical for the tasks with high accuracy requirement and limited computing resources of spacecraft.The precession-nutation model,as the main part of extended orbit prediction,affects the efficiency and accuracy of on-board operation.In this paper,the previous research about the conversion between the Geocentric Celestial Reference System and International Terrestrial Reference System is briefly summarized,and a practical concise precession-nutation model is proposed for coordinate transformation computation based on Celestial Intermediate Pole(CIP).The idea that simplifying the CIP-based model with interpolation method is driven by characteristics of precession-nutation parameters changing with time.A cubic spline interpolation algorithm is applied to obtain the required CIP coordinates and Celestial Intermediate Origin locator.The complete precession nutation model containing more than 4000 parameters is simplified to the calculation of a cubic polynomial,which greatly reduces the computational load.In addition,for evaluating the actual performance,an orbit propagator is built with the proposed simplified precession-nutationmodel.Compared with the orbit prediction results obtained by the truncated series of IAU2000/2006 precession-nutation model,the simplified precession-nutation model with cubic spline interpolation can significantly improve the accuracy of orbit prediction,which implicates great practical application value in further on-orbit missions of spacecraft.
基金Supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program("973"Program)(2012CB956204)Special Project for Climate Change of China Meteorological Administration(CCSF2011-4)
文摘Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.
基金This work was supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (No. 05-0481)National "973" Great Foundation Research Items of China (No. 2002CB412303)
文摘Objective To measure the toxicity of phenol, aniline, and their derivatives to algae and to assess, model, and predict the toxicity using quantitative structure-activity relationship （QSAR） method. Methods Oxygen production was used as the response endpoint for assessing the toxic effects of chemicals on algal photosynthesis. The energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital （ELUMO） and the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital （EHOMO） were obtained from the ChemOffice 2004 program using the quantum chemical method MOPAC, and the frontier orbital energy gap （△E） was obtained. Results The compounds exhibited a reasonably wide range of algal toxicity. The most toxic compound was α-naphthol, whereas the least toxic one was aniline. A two-descriptor model was derived from the algal toxicity and structural parameters： logl/EC50=0.2681ogKow-1.006△E＋11.769 （n=20, r^2=0.946）. This model was stable and satisfactory for predicting toxicity. Conclusion Phenol, aniline, and their derivatives are polar narcotics. Their toxicity is greater than estimated by hydrophobicity only, and addition of the frontier orbital energy gap AE can significantly improve the prediction of logKow-dependent models.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50975141)the Aviation Science Fund(20091652018,2010352005)the National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2012ZX04003031-4)
文摘To optimize cutting control parameters and provide scientific evidence for controlling cutting forces,cutting force modeling and cutting control parameter optimization are researched with one tool adopted to orbital drill holes in aluminum alloy 6061.Firstly,four cutting control parameters(tool rotation speed,tool revolution speed,axial feeding pitch and tool revolution radius)and affecting cutting forces are identified after orbital drilling kinematics analysis.Secondly,hybrid level orthogonal experiment method is utilized in modeling experiment.By nonlinear regression analysis,two quadratic prediction models for axial and radial forces are established,where the above four control parameters are used as input variables.Then,model accuracy and cutting control parameters are analyzed.Upon axial and radial forces models,two optimal combinations of cutting control parameters are obtained for processing a13mm hole,corresponding to the minimum axial force and the radial force respectively.Finally,each optimal combination is applied in verification experiment.The verification experiment results of cutting force are in good agreement with prediction model,which confirms accracy of the research method in practical production.
文摘A lightweight multi-layer residual temporal convolutional network model(RTCN)is proposed to target the highly complex kinematics and temporal correlation of human motion.RTCN uses 1-D convolution to efficiently obtain the spatial structure information of human motion and extract the correlation in the time series of human motion.The residual structure is applied to the proposed network model to alleviate the problem of gradient disappearance in the deep network.Experiments on the Human 3.6M dataset demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reduces the errors of motion prediction compared with previous methods,especially of long-term prediction.
文摘Software fault prediction is one of the most fundamental but significant management techniques in software dependability assessment. In this paper we concern the software fault prediction using a multilayer-perceptron neural network, where the underlying software fault count data are transformed to the Gaussian data, by means of the well-known Box-Cox power transformation. More specially, we investigate the long-term behavior of software fault counts by the neural network, and perform the multi-stage look ahead prediction of the cumulative number of software faults detected in the future software testing. In numerical examples with two actual software fault data sets, we compare our neural network approach with the existing software reliability growth models based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in terms of predictive performance with average relative error, and show that the data transformation employed in this paper leads to an improvement in prediction accuracy.
基金supported by Chongqing Municipal Natural Science Foundation of General Program(CSTB2022NSCQMSX1093)the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.KJQN202200701)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M703487).
文摘Two-Line Element(TLE)datasets are the only orbital data source of Earth-orbiting space objects for many civil users for their research and applications.The datasets have uneven qualities that may affect the reliability of the propagated positions of space objects using a single TLE.The least squares approach to use multiple TLEs also suffers from the poor quality of some TLEs,and reliable error information cannot be available.This paper proposes a simplex algorithm to estimate an optimal TLE from multiple TLEs and obtain the uncertainty of each element.It is a derivative-free technique that can deal with various orbit types.Experiments have demonstrated that using the TLE estimated from the simplex method is more reliable,stable,and effective than those from the batch least squares method.As an application example,the optimal TLE and its uncertainty are used for predicting the fallen area,keeping the actual fallen site in the prediction areas.
文摘A large body of evidence links ambient fine particulates (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) to chronic disease. Efforts continue to be made to improve large scale estimation of this pollutant for within-urban environments and sparsely monitored areas. Still questions remain about modeling choices. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of spatial only models in predicting national monthly exposure estimates of fine particulate matter at different time aggregations during the time period 2000-2009 for the contiguous United States. Additional goals were to evaluate the difference in prediction between federal reference monitors and non-reference monitors, assess regional differences, and compare with traditional methods. Using spatial generalized additive models (GAM), national models for fine particulate matter were developed, incorporating geographical information systems (GIS)-derived covariates and meteorological variables. Results were compared to nearest monitor and inverse distance weighting at different time aggregations and a comparison was made between the Federal Reference Method and all monitors. Cross-validation was used for model evaluation. Using all monitors, the cross-validated R<sup>2</sup> was 0.76, 0.81, and 0.82 for monthly, 1 year, and 5-year aggregations, respectively. A small decrease in performance was observed when selecting Federal Reference monitors only (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.73, 0.78, and 0.80 respectively). For Inverse distance weighting (IDW), there was a significantly larger decrease in R<sup>2</sup> (0.68, 0.71, and 0.73, respectively). The spatial GAM showed the weakest performance for the northwest region. In conclusion, National exposure estimates of fine particulates at different time aggregations can be significantly improved over traditional methods by using spatial GAMs that are relatively easy to produce. Furthermore, these models are comparable in performance to other national prediction models.
文摘Objective To explore quantitative electroencephalography in unconscious patients after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) to predict awakening. Methods All cases were divided into two groups(the awake group 19 cases and the unfavourable prognosis group 22 cases).Two weeks after admission the original EEGs were preformed in 41 patients suffering from severe TBI with duration of disturbance of
文摘Background: Risk stratification of long-term outcomes for patients undergoing Coronary artery bypass grafting has enormous potential clinical importance. Aim: To develop risk stratification models for predicting long-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods: We retrospectively revised the electronic medical records of 2330 patients who underwent adult Cardiac surgery between August 2016 and December 2022 at Madinah Cardiac Center, Saudi Arabia. Three hundred patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria of CABG operations with a complete follow-up period of at least 24 months, and data reporting. The collected data included patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data, pharmacotherapy, echocardiographic parameters, procedural details, postoperative data, in-hospital outcomes, and follow-up data. Our follow-up was depending on the clinical status (NYHA class), chest pain recurrence, medication dependence and echo follow-up. A univariate analysis was performed between each patient risk factor and the long-term outcome to determine the preoperative, operative, and postoperative factors significantly associated with each long-term outcome. Then a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with a stepwise, forward selection procedure. Significant (p < 0.05) risk factors were identified and were used as candidate variables in the development of a multivariable risk prediction model. Results: The incidence of all-cause mortality during hospital admission or follow-up period was 2.3%. Other long-term outcomes included all-cause recurrent hospitalization (9.8%), recurrent chest pain (2.4%), and the need for revascularization by using a stent in 5 (3.0%) patients. Thirteen (4.4%) patients suffered heart failure and they were on the maximum anti-failure medications. The model for predicting all-cause mortality included the preoperative EF ≤ 35% (AOR: 30.757, p = 0.061), the bypass time (AOR: 1.029, p = 0.003), and the duration of ventilation following the operation (AOR: 1.237, p = 0.021). The model for risk stratification of recurrent hospitalization comprised the preoperative EF ≤ 35% (AOR: 6.198, p p = 0.023), low postoperative cardiac output (AOR: 3.622, p = 0.007), and the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AOR: 2.787, p = 0.038). Low postoperative cardiac output was the only predictor that significantly contributed to recurrent chest pain (AOR: 11.66, p = 0.004). Finally, the model consisted of low postoperative cardiac output (AOR: 5.976, p < 0.001) and postoperative ventricular fibrillation (AOR: 4.216, p = 0.019) was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of the future need for revascularization using a stent. Conclusions: A risk prediction model was developed in a Saudi cohort for predicting all-cause mortality risk during both hospital admission and the follow-up period of at least 24 months after isolated CABG surgery. A set of models were also developed for predicting long-term risks of all-cause recurrent hospitalization, recurrent chest pain, heart failure, and the need for revascularization by using stents.
