A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of RC high-rise(RCHR)buildings designed according to Eurocode 8 and located in the Southern Euro-Mediterranean zone is presented herein.The loss assessment methodology is based ...A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of RC high-rise(RCHR)buildings designed according to Eurocode 8 and located in the Southern Euro-Mediterranean zone is presented herein.The loss assessment methodology is based on a comprehensive simulation approach which takes into account ground motion(GM)uncertainty,and the random effects in seismic demand,as well as in predicting the damage states(DSs).The methodology is implemented on three RCHR buildings of 20-story,30-story and 40-story with a core wall structural system.The loss functions described by a cumulative lognormal probability distribution are obtained for two intensity levels for a large set of simulations(NLTHAs)based on 60 GM records with a wide range of magnitude(M),distance to source(R)and different site soil conditions(SS).The losses expressed in percent of building replacement cost for RCHR buildings are obtained.In the estimation of losses,both structural(S)and nonstructural(NS)damage for four DSs are considered.The effect of different GM characteristics(M,R and SS)on the obtained losses are investigated.Finally,the estimated performance of the RCHR buildings are checked to ensure that they fulfill limit state requirements according to Eurocode 8.展开更多
Machine learning is currently one of the research hotspots in the field of landslide prediction.To clarify and evaluate the differences in characteristics and prediction effects of different machine learning models,Co...Machine learning is currently one of the research hotspots in the field of landslide prediction.To clarify and evaluate the differences in characteristics and prediction effects of different machine learning models,Conghua District,which is the most prone to landslide disasters in Guangzhou,was selected for landslide susceptibility evaluation.The evaluation factors were selected by using correlation analysis and variance expansion factor method.Applying four machine learning methods namely Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machines(SVM),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB),landslide models were constructed.Comparative analysis and evaluation of the model were conducted through statistical indices and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.The results showed that LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models have good predictive performance for landslide susceptibility,with the area under curve(AUC)values of 0.752,0.965,0.996,and 0.998,respectively.XGB model had the highest predictive ability,followed by RF model,SVM model,and LR model.The frequency ratio(FR)accuracy of LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models was 0.775,0.842,0.759,and 0.822,respectively.RF and XGB models were superior to LR and SVM models,indicating that the integrated algorithm has better predictive ability than a single classification algorithm in regional landslide classification problems.展开更多
The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in...The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades.The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with MS8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship.Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper.In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.展开更多
Using summer(June-August)precipitation observation data in 10 representative stations of Shaoyang City during 1971-2021 and disaster data caused by summer rainstorm in nine counties(cities)and four districts of Shaoya...Using summer(June-August)precipitation observation data in 10 representative stations of Shaoyang City during 1971-2021 and disaster data caused by summer rainstorm in nine counties(cities)and four districts of Shaoyang during 1981-2021,statistical analysis on summer rainstorm and its caused disaster in Shaoyang was conducted,and spatial and temporal characteristics of summer rainstorm and spatial distribution rule of disaster were found out.The results showed that(1)the rainstorm disaster in Shaoyang City occurs almost every year and is highly seasonal.(2)Rainstorm disaster loss is the first of other meteorological disasters.(3)The summer rainstorm disaster has the characteristics of sudden and destructive.On this basis,the relative grades of rainstorm disaster risk degree and disaster loss degree were divided,and the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Shaoyang City was made,and the disaster prevention and mitigation measures and countermeasures were put forward.The research could provide scientific decision basis for party and government departments guiding flood fighting and disaster relief.展开更多
We explored and studied rainstorm disaster impact grade. Firstly,we selected average precipitation,precipitation intensity,coverage and duration during rainstorm process,and economic losses,the number of deaths and to...We explored and studied rainstorm disaster impact grade. Firstly,we selected average precipitation,precipitation intensity,coverage and duration during rainstorm process,and economic losses,the number of deaths and total casualties in rainstorm disaster situation as the pre-assessment indexes of rainstorm process impact grade along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. Then,normalized and dimensionless processing of each index was conducted. By using gray correlation method,we established rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster impact grade. At last,we conducted regression analysis of relevancy degree between rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster situation grade,and established a linear relationship between the two,thereby getting a rainstorm disaster pre-assessment method. On this basis,using rainstorm hazard factors in independent sample,we carried out pre-assessment test of disaster impact grade. The results show that this pre-assessment method is quick and easy,and the effect is better.展开更多
This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods—from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation—and then population and economic loss estimations.The physi...This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods—from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation—and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress feld,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on diferent nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience signifcantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are signifcant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across diferent scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identifed as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will signifcantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to sufer the most severe damage.These fndings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its infuence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.展开更多
China is prone to disasters and escalating disaster losses. Effective disaster mitigation is the foundation for efficient disaster response and rescue and for reducing the degree of hazardous impacts on the population...China is prone to disasters and escalating disaster losses. Effective disaster mitigation is the foundation for efficient disaster response and rescue and for reducing the degree of hazardous impacts on the population. Vulnerability refers to the population's capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover from the impact of a hazardous event. A hazard vulnerability assessment(HVA) systematically evaluates the damage that could be caused by a potential disaster, the severity of the impact, and the available medical resources during a disaster to reduce population vulnerability and increase the capacity to cope with disasters. In this article, we summarized HVA team membership, content(disaster identification, probability and consequences), and methods and procedures for an HVA that can be tailored to China's needs. We further discussed the role of epidemiology in an HVA. Disaster epidemiology studies the underlying causes of disasters to achieve effective disaster prevention and reduction. In addition, we made several recommendations that are already in practice in developed countries, such as the U.S., for future implementation in China and other developing countries. An effective HVA plan is crucial for successful disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.展开更多
Efficient and accurate access to coastal land cover information is of great significance for marine disaster prevention and mitigation.Although the popular and common sensors of land resource satellites provide free a...Efficient and accurate access to coastal land cover information is of great significance for marine disaster prevention and mitigation.Although the popular and common sensors of land resource satellites provide free and valuable images to map the land cover,coastal areas often encounter significant cloud cover,especially in tropical areas,which makes the classification in those areas non-ideal.To solve this problem,we proposed a framework of combining medium-resolution optical images and synthetic aperture radar(SAR)data with the recently popular object-based image analysis(OBIA)method and used the Landsat Operational Land Imager(OLI)and Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar(PALSAR)images acquired in Singapore in 2017 as a case study.We designed experiments to confirm two critical factors of this framework:one is the segmentation scale that determines the average object size,and the other is the classification feature.Accuracy assessments of the land cover indicated that the optimal segmentation scale was between 40 and 80,and the features of the combination of OLI and SAR resulted in higher accuracy than any individual features,especially in areas with cloud cover.Based on the land cover generated by this framework,we assessed the vulnerability of the marine disasters of Singapore in 2008 and 2017 and found that the high-vulnerability areas mainly located in the southeast and increased by 118.97 km2 over the past decade.To clarify the disaster response plan for different geographical environments,we classified risk based on altitude and distance from shore.The newly increased high-vulnerability regions within 4 km offshore and below 30 m above sea level are at high risk;these regions may need to focus on strengthening disaster prevention construction.This study serves as a typical example of using remote sensing techniques for the vulnerability assessment of marine disasters,especially those in cloudy coastal areas.展开更多
This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 year...This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 years of summer temperature and precipitation data from 74 meteorological stations from 1971 through 2005.The information-diffusion theory has been used extensively in risk assessment,yet almost no one has done research about risk assessment by information-diffusion theory based on meteorological disaster standards.Some research results are as follows:the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region;the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwestern region is the highest;the risk probability of serious low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest,followed by the central and southeast region;the high-risk region of arid disaster in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located in the southwestern,central,and southern parts of the province;the high-intensity arid disaster was located in the south-eastern region;the high-risk region of flood in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located from the southwest and then across the central part to the western part of Heilongjiang Province;the high-intensity flood disasters were located in almost every part of Heilongjiang Province.We can conclude from the integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning that the high-risk region of mete-orological disaster is primarily located in the southern and northern part of the province,the moderate-risk region is distributed in the central southern region and western region,the low-risk region is located in the eastern part,and the light-risk region is located in the central western part of Heilongjiang Province.展开更多
[Objective] This paper aimed to study the risk zoning of rainstorm in Guizhou based on GIS. [Method] Taking Guizhou as study area, 1 km×1 km grid data as evaluation unit, and by dint of daily precipitation in met...[Objective] This paper aimed to study the risk zoning of rainstorm in Guizhou based on GIS. [Method] Taking Guizhou as study area, 1 km×1 km grid data as evaluation unit, and by dint of daily precipitation in meteorological station in Guizhou from 1961 to 2008, the rainstorm risk zoning system was constructed from the aspects of disaster-stricken dangers, suffering flexibility, disaster environment sensitivity and disaster prevention or mitigation; based on the level analysis method to determine factor weight, the risk assessment model based on GIS was set up to evaluate the four sub-indicators and risks and to get the rainstorm disaster in Guizhou in the end. [Result] The risk assessment and zonation results showed a general trend that the risk level decreased from the central to all around. The low risk area distributed in the northwest of Guizhou province because of less heavy rains and high capacity of rainstorm disaster resistant, while high risk area mainly distributed in the west-central of Guizhou due to concentration rainstorms, large terrain undulation and low coverage rate of forest. Especially, according to Anshun, the high risk area took up 98.02% of the city, and the Gangwu County, where a super-large geological disaster concurred in 2010 is located at the high risk area, which showed that the risk assessment coincided with the actual situation. [Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the macro disaster prevention and disaster mitigation plan.展开更多
Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the in...Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timing,scope of wind and rain,and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases,are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai from 1959–2006.The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed,and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results.The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai.The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model,and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster.Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa (0716) would be more serious than those by TC Wipha (0713),and that TC Fung Wong (0808) would have a weak impact.Real-life situations validate these results.展开更多
Given that it is difficult to assess the harmfulness and make emergency response timely in the early stage when flood disasters happen in cities for that the data are complex and rapidly changing, this article constru...Given that it is difficult to assess the harmfulness and make emergency response timely in the early stage when flood disasters happen in cities for that the data are complex and rapidly changing, this article constructs a rapid assessment model, namely Simple Simos Procedure and PROMTHEE II Model (SSPPM), to assess the severity of flood disaster occurring in cities at the early stage based on a view of the rapid flood disaster assessment. On this basis, the fuzzy VIKOR method is applied to choose a scientific emergency plan. This article aims to construct a research framework model, which can provide some practice implications to reduce the losses caused by flood disaster.展开更多
This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based ...This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method]...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed "three-peak" trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.展开更多
The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing h...The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing huge problems to coastal ecosystems. Vulnerability and disaster assessment and mapping in coastal areas are essential tasks and undertakings for coastal disaster risk management. The objectives of this study were to assess the climate change vulnerability and disaster risks in the four municipalities (Sta. Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc and Palauig) of Zambales and to determine the climate change community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) strategies. Remote sensing, GIS, secondary data gathering and key informant interview were used to assess vulnerability and disaster risks and mapping in the four municipalities. Survey questionnaire, focus group discussion and key informant interview were utilized in gathering data for the determination of climate change adaptation strategies. Using remote sensing technology, it was revealed that coastline changes have occurred in the shorelines of the four coastal municipalities after a decade. Sea level rise happened in Sta. Cruz and Masinloc, Zambales while there was build-up of soil in the coastline of Candelaria and Palauig, Zambales. Twelve hazard maps, 12 vulnerability maps and 12 disaster risk maps were generated for the three major disasters (flood, landslide, storm surge) in the four coastal municipalities. Based on the flood vulnerability and disaster risk assessment, the municipality of Palauig was found to be the most prone to flooding while the municipality of Candelaria was found to be the most vulnerable to landslide compared to other municipalities. All coastal barangays in the four municipalities were susceptible to storm surge. The four coastal municipalities were conducting community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) approaches in order to protect their coastal resources from the damaging impacts of climate change and improve the resilience of their local communities.展开更多
The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for ...The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.展开更多
Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amo...Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.展开更多
The effect of Aphelenchoides besseyi on 27 cultivars of rice(23 japonica and 4 indica) was assessed in the field for two seasons during 2010 and 2011. The vigorous pathogenic nematodes culturing on Botrytis cinerea we...The effect of Aphelenchoides besseyi on 27 cultivars of rice(23 japonica and 4 indica) was assessed in the field for two seasons during 2010 and 2011. The vigorous pathogenic nematodes culturing on Botrytis cinerea were used for this experiment. Inoculation was carried out at the tilling stage; the growth parameters and nematode population were recorded at the end of growth of rice plants. The results showed that the cultivars differed in their response to infection. Most of cultivars were lack of the characteristic symptom of white tip, which was seen less frequently than the other two symptoms, namely small grains and erect panicles; moreover, the expression of symptoms was probably hereditary. The infection lowered the values of all the measured biological parameters, namely length of the stem and of the panicle, the number of filled grains per panicle, and 100-grain weight, in all the cultivars. The final nematode population indicated that the threshold of economic damage had also been exceeded in 10 cultivars, and none of them was immune. Three japonica cultivars proved most vulnerable whereas Tetep, an indica type, showed a level of resistance potentially useful in controlling A. besseyi.展开更多
Guanting 水库，饮用水供给之一北京采购原料，受不了水超营养作用。它主要在 Guishui 河边被供应。因此，调查磷(P) 损失的原因并且在 Guishui 河分水岭改进 P 管理策略为在这个区域的饮用水的安全是重要的。在这研究，评价计划(PRS )...Guanting 水库，饮用水供给之一北京采购原料，受不了水超营养作用。它主要在 Guishui 河边被供应。因此，调查磷(P) 损失的原因并且在 Guishui 河分水岭改进 P 管理策略为在这个区域的饮用水的安全是重要的。在这研究，评价计划(PRS ) 的修订领域 P 被开发基于领域 PRS 在领域规模反映 P 损失的领域危险。在这个新计划，六个因素被包括，并且每一个被分配相对重量和一个决心方法。影响因素被分类进运输因素和来源因素，并且，地面水和土壤侵蚀分类和中国的降级上的环境质量的标准在这个计划被使用。由新计划， Guishui 河里的 34 块地作为“低”被分类，为进流量的 P 损失的“中等”或“高”的潜力。结果证明果园和蔬菜领域的 P 损失风险比玉米和大豆领域的高。来源因素是主要因素从学习区域影响 P 损失。在学习区域，控制 P 输入和改善 P 用法效率对减少 P 损失批评。基于结果，自从他们让极其高的用法 P 和 P 的高土壤测试评价，更多的注意应该在蔬菜和果园的领域上被给予，这被建议。与由领域大小的 P 剩余相比，修订领域 PRS 对反映领域的特征更合适，并且有更高潜在的能力比 PRS 识别 P 损失的批评来源区域。展开更多
文摘A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of RC high-rise(RCHR)buildings designed according to Eurocode 8 and located in the Southern Euro-Mediterranean zone is presented herein.The loss assessment methodology is based on a comprehensive simulation approach which takes into account ground motion(GM)uncertainty,and the random effects in seismic demand,as well as in predicting the damage states(DSs).The methodology is implemented on three RCHR buildings of 20-story,30-story and 40-story with a core wall structural system.The loss functions described by a cumulative lognormal probability distribution are obtained for two intensity levels for a large set of simulations(NLTHAs)based on 60 GM records with a wide range of magnitude(M),distance to source(R)and different site soil conditions(SS).The losses expressed in percent of building replacement cost for RCHR buildings are obtained.In the estimation of losses,both structural(S)and nonstructural(NS)damage for four DSs are considered.The effect of different GM characteristics(M,R and SS)on the obtained losses are investigated.Finally,the estimated performance of the RCHR buildings are checked to ensure that they fulfill limit state requirements according to Eurocode 8.
基金supported by the projects of the China Geological Survey(DD20221729,DD20190291)Zhuhai Urban Geological Survey(including informatization)(MZCD–2201–008).
文摘Machine learning is currently one of the research hotspots in the field of landslide prediction.To clarify and evaluate the differences in characteristics and prediction effects of different machine learning models,Conghua District,which is the most prone to landslide disasters in Guangzhou,was selected for landslide susceptibility evaluation.The evaluation factors were selected by using correlation analysis and variance expansion factor method.Applying four machine learning methods namely Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machines(SVM),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB),landslide models were constructed.Comparative analysis and evaluation of the model were conducted through statistical indices and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.The results showed that LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models have good predictive performance for landslide susceptibility,with the area under curve(AUC)values of 0.752,0.965,0.996,and 0.998,respectively.XGB model had the highest predictive ability,followed by RF model,SVM model,and LR model.The frequency ratio(FR)accuracy of LR,RF,SVM,and XGB models was 0.775,0.842,0.759,and 0.822,respectively.RF and XGB models were superior to LR and SVM models,indicating that the integrated algorithm has better predictive ability than a single classification algorithm in regional landslide classification problems.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40301003), the Open Project Program of Key Laboratory of Re-sources Remote Sensing & Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture.
基金sponsored by the Tenth Five-year Plan of Special Social Common Weal Research Programs of the State (2004DIA3J010).
文摘The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades.The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with MS8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship.Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper.In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.
文摘Using summer(June-August)precipitation observation data in 10 representative stations of Shaoyang City during 1971-2021 and disaster data caused by summer rainstorm in nine counties(cities)and four districts of Shaoyang during 1981-2021,statistical analysis on summer rainstorm and its caused disaster in Shaoyang was conducted,and spatial and temporal characteristics of summer rainstorm and spatial distribution rule of disaster were found out.The results showed that(1)the rainstorm disaster in Shaoyang City occurs almost every year and is highly seasonal.(2)Rainstorm disaster loss is the first of other meteorological disasters.(3)The summer rainstorm disaster has the characteristics of sudden and destructive.On this basis,the relative grades of rainstorm disaster risk degree and disaster loss degree were divided,and the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Shaoyang City was made,and the disaster prevention and mitigation measures and countermeasures were put forward.The research could provide scientific decision basis for party and government departments guiding flood fighting and disaster relief.
基金Supported by Forecaster Special Item of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2014-011)
文摘We explored and studied rainstorm disaster impact grade. Firstly,we selected average precipitation,precipitation intensity,coverage and duration during rainstorm process,and economic losses,the number of deaths and total casualties in rainstorm disaster situation as the pre-assessment indexes of rainstorm process impact grade along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. Then,normalized and dimensionless processing of each index was conducted. By using gray correlation method,we established rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster impact grade. At last,we conducted regression analysis of relevancy degree between rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster situation grade,and established a linear relationship between the two,thereby getting a rainstorm disaster pre-assessment method. On this basis,using rainstorm hazard factors in independent sample,we carried out pre-assessment test of disaster impact grade. The results show that this pre-assessment method is quick and easy,and the effect is better.
基金supported by the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-Resolution Imaging Technology (2022B1212010002)Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0203)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (KQTD20170810111725321).
文摘This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods—from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation—and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress feld,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on diferent nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience signifcantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are signifcant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across diferent scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identifed as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will signifcantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to sufer the most severe damage.These fndings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its infuence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.
基金supported by the General Logistics of PLA in China (Grant No. AWS11L009)
文摘China is prone to disasters and escalating disaster losses. Effective disaster mitigation is the foundation for efficient disaster response and rescue and for reducing the degree of hazardous impacts on the population. Vulnerability refers to the population's capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover from the impact of a hazardous event. A hazard vulnerability assessment(HVA) systematically evaluates the damage that could be caused by a potential disaster, the severity of the impact, and the available medical resources during a disaster to reduce population vulnerability and increase the capacity to cope with disasters. In this article, we summarized HVA team membership, content(disaster identification, probability and consequences), and methods and procedures for an HVA that can be tailored to China's needs. We further discussed the role of epidemiology in an HVA. Disaster epidemiology studies the underlying causes of disasters to achieve effective disaster prevention and reduction. In addition, we made several recommendations that are already in practice in developed countries, such as the U.S., for future implementation in China and other developing countries. An effective HVA plan is crucial for successful disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1402003)the CAS Earth Big Data Science Project(No.XDA19060303)the Innovation Project of the State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System(No.O88RAA01YA)
文摘Efficient and accurate access to coastal land cover information is of great significance for marine disaster prevention and mitigation.Although the popular and common sensors of land resource satellites provide free and valuable images to map the land cover,coastal areas often encounter significant cloud cover,especially in tropical areas,which makes the classification in those areas non-ideal.To solve this problem,we proposed a framework of combining medium-resolution optical images and synthetic aperture radar(SAR)data with the recently popular object-based image analysis(OBIA)method and used the Landsat Operational Land Imager(OLI)and Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar(PALSAR)images acquired in Singapore in 2017 as a case study.We designed experiments to confirm two critical factors of this framework:one is the segmentation scale that determines the average object size,and the other is the classification feature.Accuracy assessments of the land cover indicated that the optimal segmentation scale was between 40 and 80,and the features of the combination of OLI and SAR resulted in higher accuracy than any individual features,especially in areas with cloud cover.Based on the land cover generated by this framework,we assessed the vulnerability of the marine disasters of Singapore in 2008 and 2017 and found that the high-vulnerability areas mainly located in the southeast and increased by 118.97 km2 over the past decade.To clarify the disaster response plan for different geographical environments,we classified risk based on altitude and distance from shore.The newly increased high-vulnerability regions within 4 km offshore and below 30 m above sea level are at high risk;these regions may need to focus on strengthening disaster prevention construction.This study serves as a typical example of using remote sensing techniques for the vulnerability assessment of marine disasters,especially those in cloudy coastal areas.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Department of Heilongjiang Province (GC06C10302 S8)the grant of Harbin Science and Technology Bureau (2007RFXXS029)the graduate innovative research projects in Heilongjiang Province (YJSCX2009-258HLJ)
文摘This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 years of summer temperature and precipitation data from 74 meteorological stations from 1971 through 2005.The information-diffusion theory has been used extensively in risk assessment,yet almost no one has done research about risk assessment by information-diffusion theory based on meteorological disaster standards.Some research results are as follows:the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region;the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwestern region is the highest;the risk probability of serious low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest,followed by the central and southeast region;the high-risk region of arid disaster in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located in the southwestern,central,and southern parts of the province;the high-intensity arid disaster was located in the south-eastern region;the high-risk region of flood in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located from the southwest and then across the central part to the western part of Heilongjiang Province;the high-intensity flood disasters were located in almost every part of Heilongjiang Province.We can conclude from the integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning that the high-risk region of mete-orological disaster is primarily located in the southern and northern part of the province,the moderate-risk region is distributed in the central southern region and western region,the low-risk region is located in the eastern part,and the light-risk region is located in the central western part of Heilongjiang Province.
文摘[Objective] This paper aimed to study the risk zoning of rainstorm in Guizhou based on GIS. [Method] Taking Guizhou as study area, 1 km×1 km grid data as evaluation unit, and by dint of daily precipitation in meteorological station in Guizhou from 1961 to 2008, the rainstorm risk zoning system was constructed from the aspects of disaster-stricken dangers, suffering flexibility, disaster environment sensitivity and disaster prevention or mitigation; based on the level analysis method to determine factor weight, the risk assessment model based on GIS was set up to evaluate the four sub-indicators and risks and to get the rainstorm disaster in Guizhou in the end. [Result] The risk assessment and zonation results showed a general trend that the risk level decreased from the central to all around. The low risk area distributed in the northwest of Guizhou province because of less heavy rains and high capacity of rainstorm disaster resistant, while high risk area mainly distributed in the west-central of Guizhou due to concentration rainstorms, large terrain undulation and low coverage rate of forest. Especially, according to Anshun, the high risk area took up 98.02% of the city, and the Gangwu County, where a super-large geological disaster concurred in 2010 is located at the high risk area, which showed that the risk assessment coincided with the actual situation. [Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the macro disaster prevention and disaster mitigation plan.
基金National Basic Research Program of China or 973 Program (2009CB421505)Shanghai Key Agricultural Projects (Hu Nong Ke 2006-4-10)
文摘Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timing,scope of wind and rain,and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases,are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai from 1959–2006.The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed,and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results.The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai.The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model,and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster.Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa (0716) would be more serious than those by TC Wipha (0713),and that TC Fung Wong (0808) would have a weak impact.Real-life situations validate these results.
文摘Given that it is difficult to assess the harmfulness and make emergency response timely in the early stage when flood disasters happen in cities for that the data are complex and rapidly changing, this article constructs a rapid assessment model, namely Simple Simos Procedure and PROMTHEE II Model (SSPPM), to assess the severity of flood disaster occurring in cities at the early stage based on a view of the rapid flood disaster assessment. On this basis, the fuzzy VIKOR method is applied to choose a scientific emergency plan. This article aims to construct a research framework model, which can provide some practice implications to reduce the losses caused by flood disaster.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (No. 41201553)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2013BAK05B02)
文摘This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.
基金Supported by Meteorological Open Research Fund of Huaihe River basin,China(HRM200805)Soft Science Research Plan of Ministry of Science and Technology,China(2007GXS3D087)
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed "three-peak" trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.
文摘The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing huge problems to coastal ecosystems. Vulnerability and disaster assessment and mapping in coastal areas are essential tasks and undertakings for coastal disaster risk management. The objectives of this study were to assess the climate change vulnerability and disaster risks in the four municipalities (Sta. Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc and Palauig) of Zambales and to determine the climate change community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) strategies. Remote sensing, GIS, secondary data gathering and key informant interview were used to assess vulnerability and disaster risks and mapping in the four municipalities. Survey questionnaire, focus group discussion and key informant interview were utilized in gathering data for the determination of climate change adaptation strategies. Using remote sensing technology, it was revealed that coastline changes have occurred in the shorelines of the four coastal municipalities after a decade. Sea level rise happened in Sta. Cruz and Masinloc, Zambales while there was build-up of soil in the coastline of Candelaria and Palauig, Zambales. Twelve hazard maps, 12 vulnerability maps and 12 disaster risk maps were generated for the three major disasters (flood, landslide, storm surge) in the four coastal municipalities. Based on the flood vulnerability and disaster risk assessment, the municipality of Palauig was found to be the most prone to flooding while the municipality of Candelaria was found to be the most vulnerable to landslide compared to other municipalities. All coastal barangays in the four municipalities were susceptible to storm surge. The four coastal municipalities were conducting community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) approaches in order to protect their coastal resources from the damaging impacts of climate change and improve the resilience of their local communities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No,41171332)the National Science & Technology Pillar Program of China(Grant No.2008BAK50B01-5,2008BAK50B01-6 and O8H80210AR)
文摘The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.
基金support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41302244)
文摘Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.
基金supported by the Jiangsu Agriculture Science and Technology Innovation Project,China(CX(10)206)
文摘The effect of Aphelenchoides besseyi on 27 cultivars of rice(23 japonica and 4 indica) was assessed in the field for two seasons during 2010 and 2011. The vigorous pathogenic nematodes culturing on Botrytis cinerea were used for this experiment. Inoculation was carried out at the tilling stage; the growth parameters and nematode population were recorded at the end of growth of rice plants. The results showed that the cultivars differed in their response to infection. Most of cultivars were lack of the characteristic symptom of white tip, which was seen less frequently than the other two symptoms, namely small grains and erect panicles; moreover, the expression of symptoms was probably hereditary. The infection lowered the values of all the measured biological parameters, namely length of the stem and of the panicle, the number of filled grains per panicle, and 100-grain weight, in all the cultivars. The final nematode population indicated that the threshold of economic damage had also been exceeded in 10 cultivars, and none of them was immune. Three japonica cultivars proved most vulnerable whereas Tetep, an indica type, showed a level of resistance potentially useful in controlling A. besseyi.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005CB121107)the Innovation Research Group of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005).
文摘Guanting 水库，饮用水供给之一北京采购原料，受不了水超营养作用。它主要在 Guishui 河边被供应。因此，调查磷(P) 损失的原因并且在 Guishui 河分水岭改进 P 管理策略为在这个区域的饮用水的安全是重要的。在这研究，评价计划(PRS ) 的修订领域 P 被开发基于领域 PRS 在领域规模反映 P 损失的领域危险。在这个新计划，六个因素被包括，并且每一个被分配相对重量和一个决心方法。影响因素被分类进运输因素和来源因素，并且，地面水和土壤侵蚀分类和中国的降级上的环境质量的标准在这个计划被使用。由新计划， Guishui 河里的 34 块地作为“低”被分类，为进流量的 P 损失的“中等”或“高”的潜力。结果证明果园和蔬菜领域的 P 损失风险比玉米和大豆领域的高。来源因素是主要因素从学习区域影响 P 损失。在学习区域，控制 P 输入和改善 P 用法效率对减少 P 损失批评。基于结果，自从他们让极其高的用法 P 和 P 的高土壤测试评价，更多的注意应该在蔬菜和果园的领域上被给予，这被建议。与由领域大小的 P 剩余相比，修订领域 PRS 对反映领域的特征更合适，并且有更高潜在的能力比 PRS 识别 P 损失的批评来源区域。
