We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwi...We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.展开更多
The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining hall...The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.展开更多
Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable viral disease. Often forgotten, it is potentially fatal. Its main symptoms are: fever, cough, conjunctivitis, rhinitis and skin rash. Serological diagnoses by ELISA ...Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable viral disease. Often forgotten, it is potentially fatal. Its main symptoms are: fever, cough, conjunctivitis, rhinitis and skin rash. Serological diagnoses by ELISA test based on the detection of anti-measles virus immunoglobulins M and G (IgM and IgG), are used respectively for the confirmation of suspected cases notified by means of clinical signs of the disease in health structures of the twelve departments of the Republic of Congo involved in the epidemiological surveillance of the disease, and for the evaluation of the immunity conferred by vaccination. During 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were reported and sampled throughout the country, despite the administration under the Expanded Routine Immunization Program (EPI), of 2 doses of the combined measles-rubella vaccine (RR1 and RR2) in 2020. The notification rate was higher in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the departments of Pointe-Noire (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). During the year 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were notified and sampled throughout the country with a high notification rate in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the Pointe-Noire departments (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). The samples consisting of human blood (serum) were sent to the National Public Health Laboratory and analyzed by various ELISA tests for the detection of anti-measles immunog-lobulins M and G. The analysis of the results obtained shows that the measles virus circulated in all departments of the country. 154 cases (33.55%) were confirmed positive by IgM ELISA and 98 positive cases (63.63%) were patients vaccinated against measles. Vaccination coverage in RR1 of [50%-95% [(first dose) as well as the lowest RR2 < 50% (second dose) undoubtedly because the COVID-19 pandemic could be the cause of the high frequency of cases positive vaccinated. The non-detection of IgG immunoglobulins in vaccinated patients observed by IgG ELISA tests revealed that 63.26% of vaccinated patients were not immunized against the measles virus. These results confirm those obtained during the Elisa IgM analysis and make it possible to deduce that the quality, the number of doses not properly administered, the individual characteristics of the people as well as the poor conservation of the administered vaccine (non-compliance with the cold chain) would explain the high proportion of positive cases of vaccinated measles observed.展开更多
It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studie...It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.展开更多
This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemi...This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.展开更多
Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment c...Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.展开更多
In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start wi...In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R<sub>0</sub> ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.展开更多
At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems...At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems of different countries. Omicron infections were first found in Chinese Mainland in Tianjin in December 2021, and Omicron epidemic broke out in many parts of China in 2022. In order to enable the country and government to make scientific and accurate decisions in the face of the epidemic, it is particularly important to predict and analyze the relevant factors of Omicron’s covert transmission. In this paper, based on the official data of Jilin City and the improved SEIR dynamic model, through parameter estimation, the contact infection probability of symptomatic infected persons in Omicron infected patients is 0.4265, and the attenuation factor is 0.1440. Secondly, the influence of infectious duration in different incubation periods, asymptomatic infected persons and other factors on the epidemic situation in this area was compared. Finally, the scale of epidemic development was predicted and analyzed.展开更多
In recent years, the impact of information diffusion and individual behavior adoption patterns on epidemic transmission in complex networks has received significant attention. In the immunization behavior adoption pro...In recent years, the impact of information diffusion and individual behavior adoption patterns on epidemic transmission in complex networks has received significant attention. In the immunization behavior adoption process, different individuals often make behavioral decisions in different ways, and it is of good practical importance to study the influence of individual heterogeneity on the behavior adoption process. In this paper, we propose a three-layer coupled model to analyze the process of co-evolution of official information diffusion, immunization behavior adoption and epidemic transmission in multiplex networks, focusing on individual heterogeneity in behavior adoption patterns. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the credibility of social media and the risk sensitivity of the population on behavior adoption in further study of the effect of heterogeneity of behavior adoption on epidemic transmission. Then we use the microscopic Markov chain approach to describe the dynamic process and capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold. Finally, we conduct extensive simulations to prove our findings. Our results suggest that enhancing the credibility of social media can raise the epidemic transmission threshold, making it effective at controlling epidemic transmission during the dynamic process. In addition, improving an individuals' risk sensitivity, and thus their taking effective protective measures, can also reduce the number of infected individuals and delay the epidemic outbreak. Our study explores the role of individual heterogeneity in behavior adoption in real networks, more clearly models the effect of the credibility of social media and risk sensitivity of the population on the epidemic transmission dynamic, and provides a useful reference for managers to formulate epidemic control and prevention policies.展开更多
Serratia is an opportunistic pathogenic bacterium of the Enterobacteriaceae family, occasionally responsible for epidemics of nosocomial infections in critical departments;in particular in neonatal intensive care unit...Serratia is an opportunistic pathogenic bacterium of the Enterobacteriaceae family, occasionally responsible for epidemics of nosocomial infections in critical departments;in particular in neonatal intensive care units Enterobacteriaceae form a large family of Gram-negative bacteria, which cause diseases of highly variable severity, due to distinct pathogenic mechanisms. This family is heterogeneous as it consists of about 30 genera of bacteria and more than 100 species. However, all these germs have in common their preferential location in the digestive system, some being part of the normal flora although they are also present in the environment. Several metabolic processes characterize this bacterial family. These include the ability to reduce nitrate to nitrite (for energy generation), ferment glucose, lack cytochrome oxidase, be aerobic or anaerobic, motile or immobile, … Enterobacteriaceae constitute more than 80% of the germs isolated in the laboratory: Escherichia, Salmonella, Shigella, Klebsiella, Enterobacter, Serratia, Proteus, Morganella and Yersinia are the rods most often found. Regarding nosocomial infection to Serratia, this bacterium colonizes the respiratory, digestive and urinary systems of patients, mainly responsible for bacteremia, infections of the lower respiratory tract, urinary and skin infections. Through our work, we report the epidemic experienced in the neonatal intensive care unit MOHAMMED VI university hospital, mother-child hospital MARRAKECH MOROCCO for three months from December at February 2023 interesting 30 newborns whose clinical presentation was different, the positive diagnosis was based on blood and geographical samples taken by the bacteriology department to isolate the offending germs, the therapeutic management of our patients consisted essentially of various hygiene measures in association with dual antibiotic therapy based on meropenem and amikacin. The evolution was marked by the death of 21 patients (70%) and the recovery of 9 patients (30%). The prognosis of infection by serratia remains bleak with high morbidity interest in prevention by respecting the rules of hygiene, which begins with hand disinfection.展开更多
This works intends to provide numerical solutions based on the nonlinear fractional order derivatives of the classical White and Comiskey model(NFD-WCM).The fractional order derivatives have provided authentic and acc...This works intends to provide numerical solutions based on the nonlinear fractional order derivatives of the classical White and Comiskey model(NFD-WCM).The fractional order derivatives have provided authentic and accurate solutions for the NDF-WCM.The solutions of the fractional NFD-WCM are provided using the stochastic computing supervised algorithm named Levenberg-Marquard Backpropagation(LMB)based on neural networks(NNs).This regression approach combines gradient descent and Gauss-Newton iterative methods,which means finding a solution through the sequences of different calculations.WCM is used to demonstrate the heroin epidemics.Heroin has been on-growth world wide,mainly in Asia,Europe,and the USA.It is the fourth foremost cause of death due to taking an overdose in the USA.The nonlinear mathematical system NFD-WCM discusses the overall circumstance of different drug users,such as suspected groups,drug users without treatment,and drug users with treatment.The numerical results of NFD-WCM via LMB-NNs have been substantiated through training,testing,and validation measures.The stability and accuracy are then checked through the statistical tool,such asmean square error(MSE),error histogram,and fitness curves.The suggested methodology’s strength is demonstrated by the high convergence between the reference solutions and the solutions generated by adding the efficacy of a constructed solver LMB-NNs,with accuracy levels ranging from 10?9 to 10?10.展开更多
In the case of major public emergencies, the ability of cities to resist shocks becomes very important and reflects urban resilience. This paper selected the supply guarantee facilities during the city-wide lockdown o...In the case of major public emergencies, the ability of cities to resist shocks becomes very important and reflects urban resilience. This paper selected the supply guarantee facilities during the city-wide lockdown of Shanghai during March-May 2022 due to COVID-19 pandemic as the research object. In this research, the per capita supply guarantee capacity and supply guarantee overlay intensity were analyzed based on the official list of facilities, and the actual role of the supply guarantee facilities was investigated through a public research questionnaire. The thermodynamic diagram map that was generated based on phone visits reflected the actual distribution of the population. Then the level of “supply guarantee resilience” was evaluated and graded for each district of Shanghai. It was concluded that the overall level of supply guarantee resilience was high in the central city, divergence in the near suburban districts, and generally low in the remote suburban districts. Based on this, the paper summarized the problems of supply guarantee revealed in Shanghai during the epidemic lockdown as well as proposed strategies to improve the resilience of similar scenarios in the future. With the help of big data and public research tools, this paper aimed to provide ways and methods to evaluate the resilience of cities under major public emergencies.展开更多
How to deal with public health emergencies is an important issue related to the normal life of community residents. However, after the corresponding understanding, it is found that a series of unsustainable epidemic p...How to deal with public health emergencies is an important issue related to the normal life of community residents. However, after the corresponding understanding, it is found that a series of unsustainable epidemic prevention factors have been exposed in the community in the COVID-19, such as blocked access to basic materials, unsafe living environment, and lack of social platforms. In view of these problems, based on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, the changes in the hierarchy of needs of residents during the epidemic were analyzed, and sustainable community epidemic prevention strategies were proposed from five aspects of material storage, safe environment, social platform, respect opportunity and self-worth realization, so as to provide effective reference for future response to public health emergencies.展开更多
The immediate international spread of severe acute respiratory syn-drome revealed the potential threat of infectious diseases in a closely integrated and interdependent world.When an outbreak occurs,each country must ...The immediate international spread of severe acute respiratory syn-drome revealed the potential threat of infectious diseases in a closely integrated and interdependent world.When an outbreak occurs,each country must have a well-coordinated and preventative plan to address the situation.Information and Communication Technologies have provided innovative approaches to dealing with numerous facets of daily living.Although intelligent devices and applica-tions have become a vital part of our everyday lives,smart gadgets have also led to several physical and psychological health problems in modern society.Here,we used an artificial intelligence AI-based system for disease prediction using an Artificial Neural Network(ANN).The ANN improved the regularization of the classification model,hence increasing its accuracy.The unconstrained opti-mization model reduced the classifier’s cost function to obtain the lowest possible cost.To verify the performance of the intelligent system,we compared the out-comes of the suggested scheme with the results of previously proposed models.The proposed intelligent system achieved an accuracy of 0.89,and the miss rate 0.11 was higher than in previously proposed models.展开更多
BACKGROUND It is not uncommon to develop viral encephalitis.Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with contactin-associated protein-like 2(CASPR-2)antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis has not been r...BACKGROUND It is not uncommon to develop viral encephalitis.Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with contactin-associated protein-like 2(CASPR-2)antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis has not been reported at present.In clinical work,we need to consider more options.CASE SUMMARY A 32-year-old male worker presented with headache,fever and call-unresponsive presentation.Complete cranial magnetic resonance image showed symmetrical abnormal signals in bilateral medial temporal lobe,bilateral thalamus and basal ganglia.Improved lumbar puncture showed that cerebrospinal fluid protein and cell count increased significantly.Viral encephalitis was considered,and the patient's consciousness still increased rapidly after antiviral treatment.Further detection of Cerebrospinal fluid Japanese B encephalitis virus Polymerase Chain Reaction positive,serum autoimmune encephalitis antibody showed CASPR-2 antibody positive(1:320),the patient's condition gradually improved after plasma exchange treatment.3 mo later,the serum CASPR-2 antibody was negative and the patient's condition was stable.CONCLUSION This article reports the world’s first case of Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with CASPR-2 antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis,with a view to raising awareness.展开更多
Scrub typhus is an acute febrile vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by the obligate intracellular growth bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi(Ot).Mites are the primary vectors and rodents play a pivotal role in the tran...Scrub typhus is an acute febrile vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by the obligate intracellular growth bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi(Ot).Mites are the primary vectors and rodents play a pivotal role in the transmission of scrub typhus.Due to the climate warming,increased human activity and other factors,cases of scrub typhus have been increased sharply during the past decade in China,especially in the northern China.To understand the incidence trend,epidemic pattern,clinical sign,diagnosis and therapy of this diseases as well as genotype evolution of Orientia tsutsugamushi,we summarized and analyzed the current knowledge of scrub typhus in China from 2010 to 2020.The data indicated that the dominate genotypes of scrub typhus in China were Karp,Kato and Gilliam.Although the disease was distributed national wide,Yunnan,Guangzhou and Fujian showed the highest incidence rate.The main vector of scrub typhus in southwest,middle east and southeast of China appeared a geographic preference respectively.Seasonal timing,age and occupation were the key factors that relate to the peak incidence of scrub typhus.Notably,farmer was the occupation with the highest risk of Ot infection.Further study on the epidemic characteristics,risk factors,diagnosis and treatments of scrub typhus will be of benefit to a comprehensive guideline for prevention and control of this ancient disease.展开更多
Omicron variant was first found in Botswana, southern Africa, on November 9, 2021. The variant has many mutations and spreads quickly. It also has immune escape to existing COVID-19 vaccines, and the infection rate an...Omicron variant was first found in Botswana, southern Africa, on November 9, 2021. The variant has many mutations and spreads quickly. It also has immune escape to existing COVID-19 vaccines, and the infection rate and repeated infection rate have increased worldwide. For such variant, at this stage, foreign countries mainly adopt three strategies to prevent and control the epidemic. First, big data is used to track the potential infection of the epidemic, trace the spread of the epidemic, screen close contacts, and control the scope of infection. The second is to maximum the coverage rate of vaccination, especially the coverage rate of the third injection, so as to reduce the infection level of Omicron variant. At last, they are developing a general coronavirus vaccine to prevent infection caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the Omicron variant, so as to fundamentally eliminate the potential threat of variants to human beings. In this paper, three major epidemic prevention strategies of Omicron variant abroad were summarized in detail.展开更多
Green space is the main public space in the city and plays an important role in urban environmental health and residents’physical and mental health.The outbreak of COVID-19 has put forward new requirements for urban ...Green space is the main public space in the city and plays an important role in urban environmental health and residents’physical and mental health.The outbreak of COVID-19 has put forward new requirements for urban green space construction in many aspects.Based on the population vitality data of comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Beijing,this paper evaluated urban comprehensive parks in the context of COVID-19 epidemic to reveal the changing process of their use and visit characteristics,and proposed suggestions and strategies to deal with the epidemic in comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Beijing.展开更多
Life values are people’s understanding and view on life.After the COVID-19 outbreak,China quickly adopted policies such as lockdown to control the epidemic,while the west could not adopt.One of the important reasons ...Life values are people’s understanding and view on life.After the COVID-19 outbreak,China quickly adopted policies such as lockdown to control the epidemic,while the west could not adopt.One of the important reasons is that Chinese and western life values are different.Through the comparative analysis on Chinese and western life values,it is found that Chinese traditional life values emphasize collective consciousness,while the west pays attention to individual value.Chinese traditional life values avoid death,while the west faces death directly.China emphasizes the present world,while the west pays attention to introspection.There are also similarities between Chinese and western life values.They both emphasize the realization of life values,desire to surpass life,and regard physical life as a natural process.The main reasons for their differences are different economic bases,different cultural influences,and different religious ideas.Therefore,the comparative analysis of Chinese and western life values has theoretical and practical value.展开更多
BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their s...BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12072340)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2022M720727)the Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Postdoctoral Talent(Grant No.2022ZB130).
文摘We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61871234).
文摘The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.
文摘Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable viral disease. Often forgotten, it is potentially fatal. Its main symptoms are: fever, cough, conjunctivitis, rhinitis and skin rash. Serological diagnoses by ELISA test based on the detection of anti-measles virus immunoglobulins M and G (IgM and IgG), are used respectively for the confirmation of suspected cases notified by means of clinical signs of the disease in health structures of the twelve departments of the Republic of Congo involved in the epidemiological surveillance of the disease, and for the evaluation of the immunity conferred by vaccination. During 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were reported and sampled throughout the country, despite the administration under the Expanded Routine Immunization Program (EPI), of 2 doses of the combined measles-rubella vaccine (RR1 and RR2) in 2020. The notification rate was higher in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the departments of Pointe-Noire (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). During the year 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were notified and sampled throughout the country with a high notification rate in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the Pointe-Noire departments (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). The samples consisting of human blood (serum) were sent to the National Public Health Laboratory and analyzed by various ELISA tests for the detection of anti-measles immunog-lobulins M and G. The analysis of the results obtained shows that the measles virus circulated in all departments of the country. 154 cases (33.55%) were confirmed positive by IgM ELISA and 98 positive cases (63.63%) were patients vaccinated against measles. Vaccination coverage in RR1 of [50%-95% [(first dose) as well as the lowest RR2 < 50% (second dose) undoubtedly because the COVID-19 pandemic could be the cause of the high frequency of cases positive vaccinated. The non-detection of IgG immunoglobulins in vaccinated patients observed by IgG ELISA tests revealed that 63.26% of vaccinated patients were not immunized against the measles virus. These results confirm those obtained during the Elisa IgM analysis and make it possible to deduce that the quality, the number of doses not properly administered, the individual characteristics of the people as well as the poor conservation of the administered vaccine (non-compliance with the cold chain) would explain the high proportion of positive cases of vaccinated measles observed.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42271234,42101246,42101223)Hong Kong Research Grants Council General Research Fund Grant(No.14605920,14611621,14606922)+1 种基金Hong Kong Research Grants Council Collaborative Research Fund Grant(No.C4023-20GF)Hong Kong Research Grants Council Research Matching Grants RMG(No.8601219,8601242)。
文摘It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.
基金the support of Prince Sultan University for paying the article processing charges(APC)of this publication.
文摘This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.
基金Science and Technology Research Program of Xiamen Customs(2020XK08).
文摘Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.
文摘In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R<sub>0</sub> ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.
文摘At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems of different countries. Omicron infections were first found in Chinese Mainland in Tianjin in December 2021, and Omicron epidemic broke out in many parts of China in 2022. In order to enable the country and government to make scientific and accurate decisions in the face of the epidemic, it is particularly important to predict and analyze the relevant factors of Omicron’s covert transmission. In this paper, based on the official data of Jilin City and the improved SEIR dynamic model, through parameter estimation, the contact infection probability of symptomatic infected persons in Omicron infected patients is 0.4265, and the attenuation factor is 0.1440. Secondly, the influence of infectious duration in different incubation periods, asymptomatic infected persons and other factors on the epidemic situation in this area was compared. Finally, the scale of epidemic development was predicted and analyzed.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72174121 and 71774111)the Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learningthe Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai (Grant No. 21ZR1444100)。
文摘In recent years, the impact of information diffusion and individual behavior adoption patterns on epidemic transmission in complex networks has received significant attention. In the immunization behavior adoption process, different individuals often make behavioral decisions in different ways, and it is of good practical importance to study the influence of individual heterogeneity on the behavior adoption process. In this paper, we propose a three-layer coupled model to analyze the process of co-evolution of official information diffusion, immunization behavior adoption and epidemic transmission in multiplex networks, focusing on individual heterogeneity in behavior adoption patterns. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the credibility of social media and the risk sensitivity of the population on behavior adoption in further study of the effect of heterogeneity of behavior adoption on epidemic transmission. Then we use the microscopic Markov chain approach to describe the dynamic process and capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold. Finally, we conduct extensive simulations to prove our findings. Our results suggest that enhancing the credibility of social media can raise the epidemic transmission threshold, making it effective at controlling epidemic transmission during the dynamic process. In addition, improving an individuals' risk sensitivity, and thus their taking effective protective measures, can also reduce the number of infected individuals and delay the epidemic outbreak. Our study explores the role of individual heterogeneity in behavior adoption in real networks, more clearly models the effect of the credibility of social media and risk sensitivity of the population on the epidemic transmission dynamic, and provides a useful reference for managers to formulate epidemic control and prevention policies.
文摘Serratia is an opportunistic pathogenic bacterium of the Enterobacteriaceae family, occasionally responsible for epidemics of nosocomial infections in critical departments;in particular in neonatal intensive care units Enterobacteriaceae form a large family of Gram-negative bacteria, which cause diseases of highly variable severity, due to distinct pathogenic mechanisms. This family is heterogeneous as it consists of about 30 genera of bacteria and more than 100 species. However, all these germs have in common their preferential location in the digestive system, some being part of the normal flora although they are also present in the environment. Several metabolic processes characterize this bacterial family. These include the ability to reduce nitrate to nitrite (for energy generation), ferment glucose, lack cytochrome oxidase, be aerobic or anaerobic, motile or immobile, … Enterobacteriaceae constitute more than 80% of the germs isolated in the laboratory: Escherichia, Salmonella, Shigella, Klebsiella, Enterobacter, Serratia, Proteus, Morganella and Yersinia are the rods most often found. Regarding nosocomial infection to Serratia, this bacterium colonizes the respiratory, digestive and urinary systems of patients, mainly responsible for bacteremia, infections of the lower respiratory tract, urinary and skin infections. Through our work, we report the epidemic experienced in the neonatal intensive care unit MOHAMMED VI university hospital, mother-child hospital MARRAKECH MOROCCO for three months from December at February 2023 interesting 30 newborns whose clinical presentation was different, the positive diagnosis was based on blood and geographical samples taken by the bacteriology department to isolate the offending germs, the therapeutic management of our patients consisted essentially of various hygiene measures in association with dual antibiotic therapy based on meropenem and amikacin. The evolution was marked by the death of 21 patients (70%) and the recovery of 9 patients (30%). The prognosis of infection by serratia remains bleak with high morbidity interest in prevention by respecting the rules of hygiene, which begins with hand disinfection.
基金National Research Council of Thailand(NRCT)and Khon Kaen University:N42A650291.
文摘This works intends to provide numerical solutions based on the nonlinear fractional order derivatives of the classical White and Comiskey model(NFD-WCM).The fractional order derivatives have provided authentic and accurate solutions for the NDF-WCM.The solutions of the fractional NFD-WCM are provided using the stochastic computing supervised algorithm named Levenberg-Marquard Backpropagation(LMB)based on neural networks(NNs).This regression approach combines gradient descent and Gauss-Newton iterative methods,which means finding a solution through the sequences of different calculations.WCM is used to demonstrate the heroin epidemics.Heroin has been on-growth world wide,mainly in Asia,Europe,and the USA.It is the fourth foremost cause of death due to taking an overdose in the USA.The nonlinear mathematical system NFD-WCM discusses the overall circumstance of different drug users,such as suspected groups,drug users without treatment,and drug users with treatment.The numerical results of NFD-WCM via LMB-NNs have been substantiated through training,testing,and validation measures.The stability and accuracy are then checked through the statistical tool,such asmean square error(MSE),error histogram,and fitness curves.The suggested methodology’s strength is demonstrated by the high convergence between the reference solutions and the solutions generated by adding the efficacy of a constructed solver LMB-NNs,with accuracy levels ranging from 10?9 to 10?10.
文摘In the case of major public emergencies, the ability of cities to resist shocks becomes very important and reflects urban resilience. This paper selected the supply guarantee facilities during the city-wide lockdown of Shanghai during March-May 2022 due to COVID-19 pandemic as the research object. In this research, the per capita supply guarantee capacity and supply guarantee overlay intensity were analyzed based on the official list of facilities, and the actual role of the supply guarantee facilities was investigated through a public research questionnaire. The thermodynamic diagram map that was generated based on phone visits reflected the actual distribution of the population. Then the level of “supply guarantee resilience” was evaluated and graded for each district of Shanghai. It was concluded that the overall level of supply guarantee resilience was high in the central city, divergence in the near suburban districts, and generally low in the remote suburban districts. Based on this, the paper summarized the problems of supply guarantee revealed in Shanghai during the epidemic lockdown as well as proposed strategies to improve the resilience of similar scenarios in the future. With the help of big data and public research tools, this paper aimed to provide ways and methods to evaluate the resilience of cities under major public emergencies.
文摘How to deal with public health emergencies is an important issue related to the normal life of community residents. However, after the corresponding understanding, it is found that a series of unsustainable epidemic prevention factors have been exposed in the community in the COVID-19, such as blocked access to basic materials, unsafe living environment, and lack of social platforms. In view of these problems, based on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, the changes in the hierarchy of needs of residents during the epidemic were analyzed, and sustainable community epidemic prevention strategies were proposed from five aspects of material storage, safe environment, social platform, respect opportunity and self-worth realization, so as to provide effective reference for future response to public health emergencies.
文摘The immediate international spread of severe acute respiratory syn-drome revealed the potential threat of infectious diseases in a closely integrated and interdependent world.When an outbreak occurs,each country must have a well-coordinated and preventative plan to address the situation.Information and Communication Technologies have provided innovative approaches to dealing with numerous facets of daily living.Although intelligent devices and applica-tions have become a vital part of our everyday lives,smart gadgets have also led to several physical and psychological health problems in modern society.Here,we used an artificial intelligence AI-based system for disease prediction using an Artificial Neural Network(ANN).The ANN improved the regularization of the classification model,hence increasing its accuracy.The unconstrained opti-mization model reduced the classifier’s cost function to obtain the lowest possible cost.To verify the performance of the intelligent system,we compared the out-comes of the suggested scheme with the results of previously proposed models.The proposed intelligent system achieved an accuracy of 0.89,and the miss rate 0.11 was higher than in previously proposed models.
文摘BACKGROUND It is not uncommon to develop viral encephalitis.Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with contactin-associated protein-like 2(CASPR-2)antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis has not been reported at present.In clinical work,we need to consider more options.CASE SUMMARY A 32-year-old male worker presented with headache,fever and call-unresponsive presentation.Complete cranial magnetic resonance image showed symmetrical abnormal signals in bilateral medial temporal lobe,bilateral thalamus and basal ganglia.Improved lumbar puncture showed that cerebrospinal fluid protein and cell count increased significantly.Viral encephalitis was considered,and the patient's consciousness still increased rapidly after antiviral treatment.Further detection of Cerebrospinal fluid Japanese B encephalitis virus Polymerase Chain Reaction positive,serum autoimmune encephalitis antibody showed CASPR-2 antibody positive(1:320),the patient's condition gradually improved after plasma exchange treatment.3 mo later,the serum CASPR-2 antibody was negative and the patient's condition was stable.CONCLUSION This article reports the world’s first case of Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with CASPR-2 antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis,with a view to raising awareness.
基金High-level Talent Project of the Hainan Province (No.820RC628)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.82060378,81860367)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation Youth Project of Hainan Province (No.820QN267)Cultivation Fund of Hainan Medical College (No.HYPY201919)。
文摘Scrub typhus is an acute febrile vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by the obligate intracellular growth bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi(Ot).Mites are the primary vectors and rodents play a pivotal role in the transmission of scrub typhus.Due to the climate warming,increased human activity and other factors,cases of scrub typhus have been increased sharply during the past decade in China,especially in the northern China.To understand the incidence trend,epidemic pattern,clinical sign,diagnosis and therapy of this diseases as well as genotype evolution of Orientia tsutsugamushi,we summarized and analyzed the current knowledge of scrub typhus in China from 2010 to 2020.The data indicated that the dominate genotypes of scrub typhus in China were Karp,Kato and Gilliam.Although the disease was distributed national wide,Yunnan,Guangzhou and Fujian showed the highest incidence rate.The main vector of scrub typhus in southwest,middle east and southeast of China appeared a geographic preference respectively.Seasonal timing,age and occupation were the key factors that relate to the peak incidence of scrub typhus.Notably,farmer was the occupation with the highest risk of Ot infection.Further study on the epidemic characteristics,risk factors,diagnosis and treatments of scrub typhus will be of benefit to a comprehensive guideline for prevention and control of this ancient disease.
文摘Omicron variant was first found in Botswana, southern Africa, on November 9, 2021. The variant has many mutations and spreads quickly. It also has immune escape to existing COVID-19 vaccines, and the infection rate and repeated infection rate have increased worldwide. For such variant, at this stage, foreign countries mainly adopt three strategies to prevent and control the epidemic. First, big data is used to track the potential infection of the epidemic, trace the spread of the epidemic, screen close contacts, and control the scope of infection. The second is to maximum the coverage rate of vaccination, especially the coverage rate of the third injection, so as to reduce the infection level of Omicron variant. At last, they are developing a general coronavirus vaccine to prevent infection caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the Omicron variant, so as to fundamentally eliminate the potential threat of variants to human beings. In this paper, three major epidemic prevention strategies of Omicron variant abroad were summarized in detail.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(51708004)Construction of Teaching Staff of Famous Young Teachers in Beijing(108051360023XN261)North China University of Technology YuYou Talent Training Program(215051360020XN160/009).
文摘Green space is the main public space in the city and plays an important role in urban environmental health and residents’physical and mental health.The outbreak of COVID-19 has put forward new requirements for urban green space construction in many aspects.Based on the population vitality data of comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Beijing,this paper evaluated urban comprehensive parks in the context of COVID-19 epidemic to reveal the changing process of their use and visit characteristics,and proposed suggestions and strategies to deal with the epidemic in comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Beijing.
文摘Life values are people’s understanding and view on life.After the COVID-19 outbreak,China quickly adopted policies such as lockdown to control the epidemic,while the west could not adopt.One of the important reasons is that Chinese and western life values are different.Through the comparative analysis on Chinese and western life values,it is found that Chinese traditional life values emphasize collective consciousness,while the west pays attention to individual value.Chinese traditional life values avoid death,while the west faces death directly.China emphasizes the present world,while the west pays attention to introspection.There are also similarities between Chinese and western life values.They both emphasize the realization of life values,desire to surpass life,and regard physical life as a natural process.The main reasons for their differences are different economic bases,different cultural influences,and different religious ideas.Therefore,the comparative analysis of Chinese and western life values has theoretical and practical value.
基金Supported by the Key Scientific Research Project of Universities in Henan Province,No.21A330004Natural Science Foundation in Henan Province,No.222300420265.
文摘BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.
