Ghana like all countries in Sub-Saharan region of Africa have long been undergoing intense land use land cover changes (LULCC) which have given rise to extensive forest loss (deforestation and degradation), loss of ar...Ghana like all countries in Sub-Saharan region of Africa have long been undergoing intense land use land cover changes (LULCC) which have given rise to extensive forest loss (deforestation and degradation), loss of arable land and land degradation. This study assessed the past LULCC in the Atwima Nwabiagya which contains the Barekese and Owabi Headworks) and the old Kumasi Local Assemblies’ areas in Ghana and projected the scenario in 2040 for business-as-usual (BAU). The synergies of satellite imagery of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified with an overall accuracy of 90%. Markov Cellular-Automata method was used to forecast the future LULC pattern after detecting main driving forces of LULCC. The findings showed an extensive increase in built up areas from 11% in 1990 to 39% in 2020 owing largely to 23% decrease in forest cover and 6% decrease in agricultural lands within the past 30 years (1990-2020). The projected LULC under the BAU scenario for 2040 showed built-up surge from 39% to 45% indicating additional forest loss from 43% in 2020 to 40% and decreasing agricultural land from 17% to 14%. The main driver for the LULCC is clearly anthropogenic driven as the human population in the study area keeps rising every censual year. This study exemplifies the fast-tracked forest loss, loss of arable land and challenges on ecosystem sustainability of the Barekese-Owabi-Kumasi landscape. The current and projected maps necessitate the apt implementation of suitable interventions such as reforestation, protection measures and policy decision in deliberate land use planning to mitigate further loss of forest cover and safeguard the Barekese and Owabi headworks.展开更多
Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdiscipl...Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata(Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enhanced soil and water retention. However, more attention needs to be paid not only to the simultaneous increase in water retention services and evapotranspiration but also to the type and layout of restored vegetation. Furthermore, urbanization needs to be controlled to prevent uncontrollable LUCCs and climate change. Our findings provide reference data for the regional water and land resources management and the sustainable development of socio-ecological systems in the Loess Plateau under LUCC and climate change scenarios.展开更多
文摘Ghana like all countries in Sub-Saharan region of Africa have long been undergoing intense land use land cover changes (LULCC) which have given rise to extensive forest loss (deforestation and degradation), loss of arable land and land degradation. This study assessed the past LULCC in the Atwima Nwabiagya which contains the Barekese and Owabi Headworks) and the old Kumasi Local Assemblies’ areas in Ghana and projected the scenario in 2040 for business-as-usual (BAU). The synergies of satellite imagery of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified with an overall accuracy of 90%. Markov Cellular-Automata method was used to forecast the future LULC pattern after detecting main driving forces of LULCC. The findings showed an extensive increase in built up areas from 11% in 1990 to 39% in 2020 owing largely to 23% decrease in forest cover and 6% decrease in agricultural lands within the past 30 years (1990-2020). The projected LULC under the BAU scenario for 2040 showed built-up surge from 39% to 45% indicating additional forest loss from 43% in 2020 to 40% and decreasing agricultural land from 17% to 14%. The main driver for the LULCC is clearly anthropogenic driven as the human population in the study area keeps rising every censual year. This study exemplifies the fast-tracked forest loss, loss of arable land and challenges on ecosystem sustainability of the Barekese-Owabi-Kumasi landscape. The current and projected maps necessitate the apt implementation of suitable interventions such as reforestation, protection measures and policy decision in deliberate land use planning to mitigate further loss of forest cover and safeguard the Barekese and Owabi headworks.
基金supported by the State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau(A314021402–202110)the Science Foundation of Hubei Province,China(2021CFB295)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42077451)。
文摘Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata(Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enhanced soil and water retention. However, more attention needs to be paid not only to the simultaneous increase in water retention services and evapotranspiration but also to the type and layout of restored vegetation. Furthermore, urbanization needs to be controlled to prevent uncontrollable LUCCs and climate change. Our findings provide reference data for the regional water and land resources management and the sustainable development of socio-ecological systems in the Loess Plateau under LUCC and climate change scenarios.
