BACKGROUND:This study aimed to determine whether modified shock index(MSI)is associated with mortality that is superior to heart rate,blood pressure,or the shock index(SI).in emergency patients.METHODS:A retrospective...BACKGROUND:This study aimed to determine whether modified shock index(MSI)is associated with mortality that is superior to heart rate,blood pressure,or the shock index(SI).in emergency patients.METHODS:A retrospective database review was performed on 22 161 patients who presented to Peking Union Medical College Hospital Emergency Department and received intravenous fluids from January 1 to December 31,2009.We gathered data of the patients on age,gender,vital signs,levels of consciousness,presenting complaints,and SI and MSI were calculated for all patients.RESULTS:Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine the correlation between risk factors and outcome.There is a significant correlation between emergency patient mortality rate and patient's vital signs obtained at the triage desk(HR>120 beats/min,systolic BP<90 mmHg,diastolic BP<60 mmHg).MSI is a stronger predictor of emergency patient mortality compared to heart rate and blood pressure alone,whereas SI does not have a significant correlation with emergency patient mortality rate.CONCLUSION:MSI is a clinically significant predictor of mortality in emergency patients.It may be better than using heart rate and blood pressure alone.SI is not significantly correlated with the mortality rate of the emergency patient.展开更多
With the decline in the most fisheries resources in the Yellow Sea,the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon has increased in commercial and ecological importance in recent years.We studied the length distribution,length-w...With the decline in the most fisheries resources in the Yellow Sea,the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon has increased in commercial and ecological importance in recent years.We studied the length distribution,length-weight relationship,age composition,growth pattern,mortality,and exploitation rates of the yellow goosefish in the Yellow Sea.Total length(TL)of females and males ranged from 173 to 582 mm and 178 to 500 mm,respectively.The length-weight relationships were also estimated for females and males.Age classes from 2 to 4 years predominated in the samples.The von Bertalanffy growth function(VBGF),estimated based on non-linear least-squares methodology,showed significant differences between sexes.Females attained a greater estimated asymptotic total length(765 mm TL)compared to males(579 mm TL).The VBGF did not differ significantly between stocks of the northern Yellow Sea and the southern Yellow Sea.Estimated natural instantaneous mortality rate(M)ranged from 0.25/a to 0.33/a based on four age-and length-based methods.Total instantaneous mortality rate(Z)of total samples calculated by the age-based catch curve method was 0.591/a and the average fishing mortality(F)was 0.30/a.Estimated exploitation rate(E)was approximately 0.5,indicating that the population of L.litulon in the Yellow Sea may be sustainable.These results provide a reference for the present status of L.litulon and information for the management.展开更多
This study focuses on the novel forecasting method(SutteARIMA)and its application in predicting Infant Mortality Rate data in Indonesia.It undertakes a comparison of the most popular andwidely used four forecasting me...This study focuses on the novel forecasting method(SutteARIMA)and its application in predicting Infant Mortality Rate data in Indonesia.It undertakes a comparison of the most popular andwidely used four forecasting methods:ARIMA,Neural Networks Time Series(NNAR),Holt-Winters,and SutteARIMA.The data used were obtained from the website of the World Bank.The data consisted of the annual infant mortality rate(per 1000 live births)from 1991 to 2019.To determine a suitable and best method for predicting InfantMortality rate,the forecasting results of these four methods were compared based on the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and mean squared error(MSE).The results of the study showed that the accuracy level of SutteARIMA method(MAPE:0.83%andMSE:0.046)in predicting InfantMortality rate in Indonesia was smaller than the other three forecasting methods,specifically the ARIMA(0.2.2)with a MAPE of 1.21%and a MSE of 0.146;the NNAR with a MAPE of 7.95%and a MSE of 3.90;and the Holt-Winters with aMAPE of 1.03%and aMSE:of 0.083.展开更多
Goats are globally very important domestic small ruminants being kept for meat, milk, skin, byproducts and several socio-cultural purposes. Goat farmers in the Lake Albert Crescent Zone (LACZ) of Uganda identified dry...Goats are globally very important domestic small ruminants being kept for meat, milk, skin, byproducts and several socio-cultural purposes. Goat farmers in the Lake Albert Crescent Zone (LACZ) of Uganda identified dry-season feed scarcity, poor breeds, diseases, informal marketing and theft as major constraints which underscore the scarcity of information on improved management technologies and the need for targeted decisions. At BuZARDI goat farm, a semi-intensive farm that is also experiencing similar challenges, we documented management practices and collected production related data for 2 years. We computed flock dynamics and mortality rates purposely to influence decisions aimed at increasing the farm’s productivity. Data were collected using pens and books, validated and analyzed using MS office 2013 and SPSS version 22. The flock size increased from 37 goats in July 2020 to 175 goats in June 2022. One hundred twenty-five goats were introduced into the farm as breeding stock, 89 kids were born on the farm and 61 goats died due to various causes. The average number of goats in the farm per month was 109.2 (SEM = 13.7), female 79.8 (SEM = 10.8) and male 29.4, (SEM = 9.9). Average population of goats at risk of death was 95 and the Mortality rate was 27 goats per 1000 goat months. The disaggregated mortality rate of 5 goats per 1000 goat months and 39 goats per 1000 goat months were obtained for the period FY 2020-2021 and FY2021-2022 respectively. The main contributors to the mortality of goats were worm infestation (33%), fracture and injuries arising from stampedes (18%), Ticks and tick borne diseases (18%), respiratory tract infections (11%) and malnutrition (10%). We recommend strict adherence to the flock health program;improved parasite management, separation & improved care for kids, vaccinations, safer feeding, and evidence based disease management, adoption of digital data collection tools and development of an appropriate app for more accurate determination of mortality rates.展开更多
Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality ra...Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.展开更多
Taking the COVID-19 data from 2020-1-23 to 3-21 days released by the China Health Protection Committee as the sample,the hospital remaining rate,mortality rate and cure rate are selected as covariates,and the contact ...Taking the COVID-19 data from 2020-1-23 to 3-21 days released by the China Health Protection Committee as the sample,the hospital remaining rate,mortality rate and cure rate are selected as covariates,and the contact infection rate is used as response variable to establish a high precision ADL model,results of return substitution show that the predicted value of contact infection rate almost coincides with the sample value,and shows three stages of change characteristics.After March 1,2020,the overall trend is downward,stable below 12%.Main influencing factors of contact infection rate are analyzed quantitatively.Based on this,the ARIMA(1,2,2)model is established to analyze and predict the mortality change trend.The results showed that the domestic COVID-19 mortality rate is stable near 4%after 2020-3-27.展开更多
Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. The specificities of cardiology mortality in Togo are not well known. The objective of this study was to determine the profile of deaths in t...Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. The specificities of cardiology mortality in Togo are not well known. The objective of this study was to determine the profile of deaths in the cardiology department of the Sylvanus Olympio Teaching Hospital (CHU SO) in Lome. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted over a period of 06 years, from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2021, in the cardiology department of the Sylvanus Olympio Teaching Hospital in Lome. In this study, we included all medical records of patients who died in hospital in the cardiology department during the study period. Results: During the study period, 2762 patients were hospitalized in the cardiology unit at CHU SO. We recorded 112 deaths meeting our criteria, for an intrahospital mortality rate of 4.19%. The average age of patients was 53.79 ± 18.27 years. Hypertension was present in 47.3%. Sickness insurance coverage was not available for 94.64% of those who died. The major cardiovascular diseases observed were myocardium in 43.75% whose dilated cardiomyopathy accounted for 71.42%;and rhythmic lesions in 34.82%. Biological infectious syndrome (56.25%), renal failure (48.21%), anemia (47.27%), lung infection (32.14%), hyponatremia (33.04%) were the main comorbidities observed. Among the circumstances of death, sudden death was found in 32.14%, cardiogenic shock in 20.54% and septic shock in 13.39%. Conclusion: The profile of deaths in the cardiology department of the CHU SO reveals that myocardial injuries are more present with circumstances of death dominated by sudden death.展开更多
Reducing neonatal mortality is a critical global health objective,especially in resource-constrained developing countries.This study employs machine learning(ML)techniques to predict fetal health status based on cardi...Reducing neonatal mortality is a critical global health objective,especially in resource-constrained developing countries.This study employs machine learning(ML)techniques to predict fetal health status based on cardiotocography(CTG)examination findings,utilizing a dataset from the Kaggle repository due to the limited comprehensive healthcare data available in developing nations.Features such as baseline fetal heart rate,uterine contractions,and waveform characteristics were extracted using the RFE wrapper feature engineering technique and scaled with a standard scaler.Six ML models—Logistic Regression(LR),Decision Tree(DT),Random Forest(RF),Gradient Boosting(GB),Categorical Boosting(CB),and Extended Gradient Boosting(XGB)—are trained via cross-validation and evaluated using performance metrics.The developed models were trained via cross-validation and evaluated using ML performance metrics.Eight out of the 21 features selected by GB returned their maximum Matthews Correlation Coefficient(MCC)score of 0.6255,while CB,with 20 of the 21 features,returned the maximum and highest MCC score of 0.6321.The study demonstrated the ability of ML models to predict fetal health conditions from CTG exam results,facilitating early identification of high-risk pregnancies and enabling prompt treatment to prevent severe neonatal outcomes.展开更多
Objective:Red blood cell distribution width(RDW)has been utilized as a prognostic indicator for mortality risk assessment in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular patients.Nevertheless,the prognostic significance of RDW ...Objective:Red blood cell distribution width(RDW)has been utilized as a prognostic indicator for mortality risk assessment in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular patients.Nevertheless,the prognostic significance of RDW in critically ill patients with cerebral infarction is yet to be investigated.The objective of this study is to examine the association between RDW and the risk of all-cause mortality in cerebral infarction patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU).Method:A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV 2.2(MIMIC-IV)intensive care dataset for data analysis.The main results were the all-cause mortality rates at 3 and 12 months of follow-up.Cumulative curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method,and Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to examine the relationship between RDW and mortality rates in critically ill cerebral infarction patients.Results:The findings indicate that RDW serves as a significant prognostic factor for mortality risk in critically ill stroke patients,specifically at the 3 and 12-month follow-up periods.The observed correlation between increasing RDW levels and higher mortality rates among cerebral infarction patients further supports the potential utility of RDW as a predictive indicator.Conclusion:RDW emerges as an independent predictor of mortality risk during the 3 and 12-month follow-up periods for critically ill patients with cerebral infarction.展开更多
We compared subgroup differences in COVID-19 case and mortality and investigated factors associated with case and mortality rate(MR)measured at the county level in Mississippi.Findings were based on data published by ...We compared subgroup differences in COVID-19 case and mortality and investigated factors associated with case and mortality rate(MR)measured at the county level in Mississippi.Findings were based on data published by the Mississippi State Department of Health between March 11 and July 16,2020.The COVID-19 case rate and case fatality rate(CFR)differed by gender and race,while MR only differed by race.Residents aged 80 years or older and those who live in a non-metro area had a higher case rate,CFR,and MR.After controlling for selected factors,researchers found that the percent of residents who are obese,low income,or with certain chronic conditions were associated with the county COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and/or MR,though some were negatively related.The findings may help the state to identify counties with higher COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and MR based on county demographics and the degree of its chronic conditions.展开更多
The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has had a considerable impact on the work of physicians and surgeons.The connection between the patient and the surgeon cannot be replaced by telemedicine.For example,the...The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has had a considerable impact on the work of physicians and surgeons.The connection between the patient and the surgeon cannot be replaced by telemedicine.For example,the surgical staff faces more serious difficulties compared to non-surgical specialists during the COVID-19 pandemic.The primary concerns include the safest solutions for protecting healthcare staff and patients and the ability to provide adequate surgical care.Additionally,the adverse effects of any surgery delays and the financial consequences complicate the picture.Therefore,patients’admission during the COVID-19 pandemic should be taken into consideration,as well as preoperative measures.The COVID-19 situation brings particular risk to patients during surgery,where preoperative morbidity and mortality rise in either asymptomatic or symptomatic COVID-19 patients.This review discusses the recent factors associated with surgical complications,mortality rates,outcomes,and experience in COVID-19 surgical patients.展开更多
Schizophrenia is a group of the most common types of mental illness.Commonly used antischizophrenia drugs all increase mortality to some extent.The increased risk of death in older individuals and patients with dement...Schizophrenia is a group of the most common types of mental illness.Commonly used antischizophrenia drugs all increase mortality to some extent.The increased risk of death in older individuals and patients with dementia using atypical antips-ychotics may be due to myocardial damage,increased mobility and increased risk of stroke.展开更多
Neighbourhood characteristics influence infant mortality above and beyond individual/household factors. In India, there are very few studies discussing the effects of neighbourhood characteristics on infant mortality....Neighbourhood characteristics influence infant mortality above and beyond individual/household factors. In India, there are very few studies discussing the effects of neighbourhood characteristics on infant mortality. This study examined the effect of neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics on infant mortality using data from the India’s Third District Level Household Survey conducted in 2007-2008. Multilevel analyses applied on the representative sample of 168,625 nested within 14,193 communities using MCMC procedure. Results established that place of residence, neighbourhood socio-economic factors as important determinants of infant mortality. Overall, being born in affluent (OR: 0.79, p < 0.01), more educated (OR: 0.86, p < 0.01) and socially disadvantaged caste (OR: 0.83, p < 0.01) neighbourhood was associated with the significant reduction in hazards of infant death. The finding of this study suggests that effort should be made to reduce infant mortality in these high focus states by including policies which aim at improving infant survival in the neighbourhood that is economically and socially deprived.展开更多
Background: Preterm birth is a primary cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality especially in low-income countries. Although understanding the preventable factors of neonatal deaths in preterm infants is required for...Background: Preterm birth is a primary cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality especially in low-income countries. Although understanding the preventable factors of neonatal deaths in preterm infants is required for timely interventions, data on those factors is lacking in Kenya. We attempted to determine mortality and its associated factors in preterm babies in Kenya. Methods and Materials: A hospital-based, prospective study was implemented from July 2019 to October 2019 involving 163 preterm neonates and their mothers admitted at Kenyatta National Hospital. A systematic random sampling method was used to recruit the study participants. Data on mortality and the associated factors in preterm neonates were collected using a pretested questionnaire for mothers and neonatal medical records. Data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: The mortality rate was 18.4%. Of the neonates who died, respiratory distress syndrome (63.3%) and neonatal sepsis (20.0%) were documented as the primary causes. Neonates born of single mother (AOR = 8.006, 95% CI 2.267 to 28.272, p = 0.001), unemployed (6.960, 1.059 - 45.757, p = 0.043), self-employed (4.040, 1.067 - 15.302, p = 0.040), anemic (7.465, 2.530 - 22.023, p < 0.001) and with history of bleeding during pregnancy were more likely to have died. The neonates born before 28 weeks of gestation (126.188, 14.554 - 1094.060, p < 0.001), those who did not cry immediately at birth (54.271, 5.970 - 493.395, p < 0.001) and the resuscitated at birth (54.406, 6.807 - 434.851, p < 0.001) were likely to die. Conclusion: High mortality rates of preterm neonates are attributed to both maternal and neonatal factors. Focused antenatal care should aim at early identification of high-risk mothers for early management of bleeding during pregnancy, close monitoring of nutritional status for mothers and health education.展开更多
After Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease. According to WHO data, about 1% of the world’s population over 60 years of age is affected by PD, and its incidence ...After Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease. According to WHO data, about 1% of the world’s population over 60 years of age is affected by PD, and its incidence increases with age. Information about mortality plays a relevant role in the planning and distribution of financial resources in the areas of public health, social assistance and the like. Thus, this article aims to describe the evolution of PD mortality in the Brazilian state capitals, in the period from 2010 to 2019. A descriptive and retrospective study was conducted, based on data collection (number of deaths and estimated resident population), by sex and age group, available in the DATASUS SIM. Mortality rates were calculated per 100 thousand inhabitants;and statistical tests of linear regression, the t-test, ANOVA and the Tukey test, using the R program, were performed to evaluate the significance of the data. The number of deaths and mortality rates were higher in males compared to females and the incidence of mortality was higher in the over 80s. Notably, the southeastern region presented the highest mortality rates, which is to be expected because it concentrates the highest proportion of elderly people. It is hoped that such data will aid the implementation of public health policies and adequate social assistance for those affected by PD, in order to improve their quality of life.展开更多
Introduction: Little is known about the quality of healthcare in intensive care units (ICUs) in Poland. Data on patients hospitalized in ICUs in Warsaw and the results of their treatment are scarce. This information, ...Introduction: Little is known about the quality of healthcare in intensive care units (ICUs) in Poland. Data on patients hospitalized in ICUs in Warsaw and the results of their treatment are scarce. This information, crucial for improving the quality of ICU healthcare services, is not collected routinely. Quality indicators are essential in the concept of holistic quality management. Implementation of these indicators in ICUs is a complex and time-consuming process. Systematic increase in demand for quality assessment tools that can reflect real conditions of the practices of ICUs, prompts the search for effective solutions. Methods: The study included 12,155 patients hospitalized in 16 ICUs of Warsaw hospitals (8 ICUs, n = 3293 of the first level of care, and 8 ICUs, n = 8862 of the second level) between 1<sup>st</sup> January 2017 and 31<sup>st</sup> December 2018. ICUs in pediatric and oncological hospitals were excluded from the study. Characteristics and demography of patients as well as the structure, treatment and human resources of the ICUs in Warsaw were analyzed. Length of stay, unexpected extubations, nosocomial infections, ICU readmissions and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were retrieved from National Health Fund, Ministry of Health, and other public databases. Results: In primary level ICUs patients’ age (66.42 vs. 64.43 years;p = 0.005) and comorbidity rate (30.56% vs. 22.78%, p = 0.037) were higher when compared to ICUs of the second level of care. The crude mortality rate in ICUs in Warsaw was significantly higher than in other EU countries and differed between ICUs of the first and the second level (34.77% vs. 24.53%, respectively;p = 0.004). SMRs were however very low: 0.71 and 0.64 (ns), respectively. ICU readmission rate, unexpected extubations, central catheter related infections, and length of stay were identical in both groups. More patients were admitted to ICU form emergency department and/or discharged home in Level 1 ICUs (18.9% vs 12.9%, p Conclusions: There are no major differences in quality of care provided by Level 1 and Level 2 ICUs in Poland, although more rigorous adhesion to admission and discharge policies is needed. Implementation of the instruments for assessing quality of ICUs including benchmarking, self-assessment of departments and evaluation of changes resulting from audits according to the Deming cycle is of utmost importance. Standardization of quality measures and markers, communication, and cooperation in reporting and creation of ICU medical registers is necessary to improve the quality of healthcare.展开更多
Background: The floodplain forests of Araguaia River, a clear-water river in the southeastern Amazon(Tocantins State, Brazil), are characterized by seasonal flooding up to 3.5 m height, low nutrient levels in the wate...Background: The floodplain forests of Araguaia River, a clear-water river in the southeastern Amazon(Tocantins State, Brazil), are characterized by seasonal flooding up to 3.5 m height, low nutrient levels in the water, and seasonal drought periods of 4–5 months.Methods: We studied the forest dynamics(tree diameter growth, tree mortality and recruitment) of this unique forest ecosystem over a 5-year period by repeated censuses in 12 permanent plots established along a flooding gradient.Results: The cumulative basal area in the plots increased by 0.84(±0.45) m2?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1)(mean ±SD) in the annual y-flooded(AF) plots in lower terrain and by 0.69(±1.00) m2?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1) in the higher non-annual y flooded(NAF) plots, corresponding to an aboveground biomass increase of 0.81(±0.57) and 0.69(±1.58) Mg?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1) in the AF and NAF plots, indicating a recent carbon sink in the biomass. Mean diameter growth rate was 1.8(±0.44) mm?yr^(–1) in the AF and 2.0(±0.56) mm?yr^(–1) in the NAF plots(corresponding to a coarse wood production of 1.53(±1.29) and 2.02(±0.52) Mg?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1)),indicating no flooding effect on radial growth. Mean mortality rates in the 5-year period were 1.9(±0.37)%?yr^(–1) in the AF plots and 1.8(±0.87)%?yr^(–1) in the NAF plots with no differences along the flooding gradient. Highest mortalities were registered in the AF plots for the 10–20 cm dbh class(2.4%?yr^(–1)), likely as a consequence of flooding,and in the NAF plots for the 40–50 cm dbh class(3.0%?yr^(–1)), probably mainly caused by ENSO-related droughts.Conclusions: We conclude that these drought-affected tropical floodplain forests have a lower standing biomass and aboveground productivity than central Amazonian floodplain forests in more humid climates, and the imprint of the flooding gradient on stand dynamics is relatively weak, which may result from the lower flooding height and the interaction of flooding with low nutrient supply and periodic drought.展开更多
Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was ...Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was to describe time trends and distribution of pancreaticoduodenectomies(PDs) performed for treating PC in Brazil in recent years. Methods: Data were retrospectively obtained from Brazilian Health Public System(namely DATASUS) regarding hospitalizations for PC and PD in Brazil from January 2008 to December 2015. PC and PD rates and their mortalities were estimated from DATASUS hospitalizations and analyzed for age, gender and demographic characteristics. Results: A total of 2364 PDs were retrieved. Albeit PC incidence more than doubled, the number of PDs increased only 37%. Most PDs were performed in men(52.2%) and patients between 50 and 69 years old(59.5%). Patients not surgically treated and those 70 years or older had the highest in-hospital mortality rates. The most developed regions(Southeast and South) as well as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered 76.2% and 54.8% of the procedures, respectively. LMIM PD mortality fluctuated, ranging from 13.6% in 2008 to 11.8% in 2015. Conclusions: This study suggests a trend towards regionalization and volume-outcome relationships for PD due to PC, as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered most of the PDs and more stable mortality rates. The substantial differences between PD and PC increasing rates reveals a limiting step on the health system resoluteness. Reduction in the number of hospital beds and late access to hospitalization, despite improvement in diagnostic methods, could at least in part explain these findings.展开更多
The spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has already taken on pandemic extents,influencing even more than 200 nations in a couple of months.Although,regulation measures in China hav...The spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has already taken on pandemic extents,influencing even more than 200 nations in a couple of months.Although,regulation measures in China have decreased new cases by over 98%,this decrease is not the situation everywhere,and most of the countries still have been affected by it.The objective of this research work is to make a comparative analysis of the top 5 most populated countries namely United States,India,China,Pakistan and Indonesia,from 1st January 2020 to 31st July 2020.This research work also targets to predict an increase in the number of deaths and total infected cases in these five countries.In our research,the performance of the proposed framework is determined by using three Machine Learning(ML)regression algorithms namely Linear Regression(LR),Support Vector Regression(SVR),andRandom Forest(RF)Regression.The proposed model is also validated upon the infected and death cases of further dates.The performance of these three algorithms is compared using the RootMean Square Error(RMSE)metrics.Random Forest algorithm shows best performance as compared to other proposed algorithms,with the lowest RMSE value in the prediction of total infected and total deaths cases for all the top five most populated countries.展开更多
[Objectives]The paper was to study the occurrence regularity and life history of cigarette beetle Lasioderrma serricorne(Fabricius)in tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop.[Methods]With the tobacco leaf threshi...[Objectives]The paper was to study the occurrence regularity and life history of cigarette beetle Lasioderrma serricorne(Fabricius)in tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop.[Methods]With the tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop as the survey site,the occurrence regularity of L.serricorne was investigated,and the life history table was inferred according to its biological characteristics.The temperature,humidity and duration of tobacco leaf threshing and redrying were simulated in the laboratory to study the survival rate of all states of L.serricorne in this environment.[Results]The lifecycle of L.serricorne in tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop was:the overwintering generation pupated in late February;the pupa began to emerge in early March,and reached its peak in late March.The first-generation eggs started hatching in late March,pupated in late May,emerged in early June,and reached the peak eclosion of the first-generation adults in mid-July.The second-generation eggs began to hatch in late July,pupated in mid-August,emerged in late August,and reached the peak eclosion of the second-generation adults in mid-September.The third-generation eggs began to hatch in mid-September;most of the larvae began to overwinter,some pupated in mid-November and survived the winter as pupae,and some pupae emerged to adults.The survival test results of different states of L.serricorne under simulated temperature,humidity and duration in the tobacco leaf threshing and redrying process showed that the mortality rates of eggs in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 51.22%,90.24% and 100%,and the mortalities of larvae in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 18.30%,81.25%and 100%,respectively.The mortalities of pupae in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 69.39%,100% and 100%,and the mortalities of adults in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 100%,100% and 100%,respectively.[Conclusions]L.serricorne of different states can be killed by appropriately raising the temperature during threshing and redrying.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND:This study aimed to determine whether modified shock index(MSI)is associated with mortality that is superior to heart rate,blood pressure,or the shock index(SI).in emergency patients.METHODS:A retrospective database review was performed on 22 161 patients who presented to Peking Union Medical College Hospital Emergency Department and received intravenous fluids from January 1 to December 31,2009.We gathered data of the patients on age,gender,vital signs,levels of consciousness,presenting complaints,and SI and MSI were calculated for all patients.RESULTS:Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine the correlation between risk factors and outcome.There is a significant correlation between emergency patient mortality rate and patient's vital signs obtained at the triage desk(HR>120 beats/min,systolic BP<90 mmHg,diastolic BP<60 mmHg).MSI is a stronger predictor of emergency patient mortality compared to heart rate and blood pressure alone,whereas SI does not have a significant correlation with emergency patient mortality rate.CONCLUSION:MSI is a clinically significant predictor of mortality in emergency patients.It may be better than using heart rate and blood pressure alone.SI is not significantly correlated with the mortality rate of the emergency patient.
基金Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFD0900902)。
文摘With the decline in the most fisheries resources in the Yellow Sea,the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon has increased in commercial and ecological importance in recent years.We studied the length distribution,length-weight relationship,age composition,growth pattern,mortality,and exploitation rates of the yellow goosefish in the Yellow Sea.Total length(TL)of females and males ranged from 173 to 582 mm and 178 to 500 mm,respectively.The length-weight relationships were also estimated for females and males.Age classes from 2 to 4 years predominated in the samples.The von Bertalanffy growth function(VBGF),estimated based on non-linear least-squares methodology,showed significant differences between sexes.Females attained a greater estimated asymptotic total length(765 mm TL)compared to males(579 mm TL).The VBGF did not differ significantly between stocks of the northern Yellow Sea and the southern Yellow Sea.Estimated natural instantaneous mortality rate(M)ranged from 0.25/a to 0.33/a based on four age-and length-based methods.Total instantaneous mortality rate(Z)of total samples calculated by the age-based catch curve method was 0.591/a and the average fishing mortality(F)was 0.30/a.Estimated exploitation rate(E)was approximately 0.5,indicating that the population of L.litulon in the Yellow Sea may be sustainable.These results provide a reference for the present status of L.litulon and information for the management.
基金This research received funding from Taif University,Researchers Supporting and Project number(TURSP-2020/207),Taif University,Taif,Saudi Arabia.
文摘This study focuses on the novel forecasting method(SutteARIMA)and its application in predicting Infant Mortality Rate data in Indonesia.It undertakes a comparison of the most popular andwidely used four forecasting methods:ARIMA,Neural Networks Time Series(NNAR),Holt-Winters,and SutteARIMA.The data used were obtained from the website of the World Bank.The data consisted of the annual infant mortality rate(per 1000 live births)from 1991 to 2019.To determine a suitable and best method for predicting InfantMortality rate,the forecasting results of these four methods were compared based on the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and mean squared error(MSE).The results of the study showed that the accuracy level of SutteARIMA method(MAPE:0.83%andMSE:0.046)in predicting InfantMortality rate in Indonesia was smaller than the other three forecasting methods,specifically the ARIMA(0.2.2)with a MAPE of 1.21%and a MSE of 0.146;the NNAR with a MAPE of 7.95%and a MSE of 3.90;and the Holt-Winters with aMAPE of 1.03%and aMSE:of 0.083.
文摘Goats are globally very important domestic small ruminants being kept for meat, milk, skin, byproducts and several socio-cultural purposes. Goat farmers in the Lake Albert Crescent Zone (LACZ) of Uganda identified dry-season feed scarcity, poor breeds, diseases, informal marketing and theft as major constraints which underscore the scarcity of information on improved management technologies and the need for targeted decisions. At BuZARDI goat farm, a semi-intensive farm that is also experiencing similar challenges, we documented management practices and collected production related data for 2 years. We computed flock dynamics and mortality rates purposely to influence decisions aimed at increasing the farm’s productivity. Data were collected using pens and books, validated and analyzed using MS office 2013 and SPSS version 22. The flock size increased from 37 goats in July 2020 to 175 goats in June 2022. One hundred twenty-five goats were introduced into the farm as breeding stock, 89 kids were born on the farm and 61 goats died due to various causes. The average number of goats in the farm per month was 109.2 (SEM = 13.7), female 79.8 (SEM = 10.8) and male 29.4, (SEM = 9.9). Average population of goats at risk of death was 95 and the Mortality rate was 27 goats per 1000 goat months. The disaggregated mortality rate of 5 goats per 1000 goat months and 39 goats per 1000 goat months were obtained for the period FY 2020-2021 and FY2021-2022 respectively. The main contributors to the mortality of goats were worm infestation (33%), fracture and injuries arising from stampedes (18%), Ticks and tick borne diseases (18%), respiratory tract infections (11%) and malnutrition (10%). We recommend strict adherence to the flock health program;improved parasite management, separation & improved care for kids, vaccinations, safer feeding, and evidence based disease management, adoption of digital data collection tools and development of an appropriate app for more accurate determination of mortality rates.
文摘Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.
基金funded by"Analysis of the Influence Mechanism of Modern Service Industry in Yunnan Province Based on Bayes Method"on the Project of Yunnan University Joint Fund.(2017FH001-068).
文摘Taking the COVID-19 data from 2020-1-23 to 3-21 days released by the China Health Protection Committee as the sample,the hospital remaining rate,mortality rate and cure rate are selected as covariates,and the contact infection rate is used as response variable to establish a high precision ADL model,results of return substitution show that the predicted value of contact infection rate almost coincides with the sample value,and shows three stages of change characteristics.After March 1,2020,the overall trend is downward,stable below 12%.Main influencing factors of contact infection rate are analyzed quantitatively.Based on this,the ARIMA(1,2,2)model is established to analyze and predict the mortality change trend.The results showed that the domestic COVID-19 mortality rate is stable near 4%after 2020-3-27.
文摘Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. The specificities of cardiology mortality in Togo are not well known. The objective of this study was to determine the profile of deaths in the cardiology department of the Sylvanus Olympio Teaching Hospital (CHU SO) in Lome. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted over a period of 06 years, from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2021, in the cardiology department of the Sylvanus Olympio Teaching Hospital in Lome. In this study, we included all medical records of patients who died in hospital in the cardiology department during the study period. Results: During the study period, 2762 patients were hospitalized in the cardiology unit at CHU SO. We recorded 112 deaths meeting our criteria, for an intrahospital mortality rate of 4.19%. The average age of patients was 53.79 ± 18.27 years. Hypertension was present in 47.3%. Sickness insurance coverage was not available for 94.64% of those who died. The major cardiovascular diseases observed were myocardium in 43.75% whose dilated cardiomyopathy accounted for 71.42%;and rhythmic lesions in 34.82%. Biological infectious syndrome (56.25%), renal failure (48.21%), anemia (47.27%), lung infection (32.14%), hyponatremia (33.04%) were the main comorbidities observed. Among the circumstances of death, sudden death was found in 32.14%, cardiogenic shock in 20.54% and septic shock in 13.39%. Conclusion: The profile of deaths in the cardiology department of the CHU SO reveals that myocardial injuries are more present with circumstances of death dominated by sudden death.
文摘Reducing neonatal mortality is a critical global health objective,especially in resource-constrained developing countries.This study employs machine learning(ML)techniques to predict fetal health status based on cardiotocography(CTG)examination findings,utilizing a dataset from the Kaggle repository due to the limited comprehensive healthcare data available in developing nations.Features such as baseline fetal heart rate,uterine contractions,and waveform characteristics were extracted using the RFE wrapper feature engineering technique and scaled with a standard scaler.Six ML models—Logistic Regression(LR),Decision Tree(DT),Random Forest(RF),Gradient Boosting(GB),Categorical Boosting(CB),and Extended Gradient Boosting(XGB)—are trained via cross-validation and evaluated using performance metrics.The developed models were trained via cross-validation and evaluated using ML performance metrics.Eight out of the 21 features selected by GB returned their maximum Matthews Correlation Coefficient(MCC)score of 0.6255,while CB,with 20 of the 21 features,returned the maximum and highest MCC score of 0.6321.The study demonstrated the ability of ML models to predict fetal health conditions from CTG exam results,facilitating early identification of high-risk pregnancies and enabling prompt treatment to prevent severe neonatal outcomes.
基金Project of Science and Technology Plan of Tianjin City(Grant number 20ZYJDSY00020)。
文摘Objective:Red blood cell distribution width(RDW)has been utilized as a prognostic indicator for mortality risk assessment in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular patients.Nevertheless,the prognostic significance of RDW in critically ill patients with cerebral infarction is yet to be investigated.The objective of this study is to examine the association between RDW and the risk of all-cause mortality in cerebral infarction patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU).Method:A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV 2.2(MIMIC-IV)intensive care dataset for data analysis.The main results were the all-cause mortality rates at 3 and 12 months of follow-up.Cumulative curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method,and Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to examine the relationship between RDW and mortality rates in critically ill cerebral infarction patients.Results:The findings indicate that RDW serves as a significant prognostic factor for mortality risk in critically ill stroke patients,specifically at the 3 and 12-month follow-up periods.The observed correlation between increasing RDW levels and higher mortality rates among cerebral infarction patients further supports the potential utility of RDW as a predictive indicator.Conclusion:RDW emerges as an independent predictor of mortality risk during the 3 and 12-month follow-up periods for critically ill patients with cerebral infarction.
文摘We compared subgroup differences in COVID-19 case and mortality and investigated factors associated with case and mortality rate(MR)measured at the county level in Mississippi.Findings were based on data published by the Mississippi State Department of Health between March 11 and July 16,2020.The COVID-19 case rate and case fatality rate(CFR)differed by gender and race,while MR only differed by race.Residents aged 80 years or older and those who live in a non-metro area had a higher case rate,CFR,and MR.After controlling for selected factors,researchers found that the percent of residents who are obese,low income,or with certain chronic conditions were associated with the county COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and/or MR,though some were negatively related.The findings may help the state to identify counties with higher COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and MR based on county demographics and the degree of its chronic conditions.
文摘The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has had a considerable impact on the work of physicians and surgeons.The connection between the patient and the surgeon cannot be replaced by telemedicine.For example,the surgical staff faces more serious difficulties compared to non-surgical specialists during the COVID-19 pandemic.The primary concerns include the safest solutions for protecting healthcare staff and patients and the ability to provide adequate surgical care.Additionally,the adverse effects of any surgery delays and the financial consequences complicate the picture.Therefore,patients’admission during the COVID-19 pandemic should be taken into consideration,as well as preoperative measures.The COVID-19 situation brings particular risk to patients during surgery,where preoperative morbidity and mortality rise in either asymptomatic or symptomatic COVID-19 patients.This review discusses the recent factors associated with surgical complications,mortality rates,outcomes,and experience in COVID-19 surgical patients.
基金Supported by Curriculum Reform Project of Taizhou University in 2021, No. xkg2021087
文摘Schizophrenia is a group of the most common types of mental illness.Commonly used antischizophrenia drugs all increase mortality to some extent.The increased risk of death in older individuals and patients with dementia using atypical antips-ychotics may be due to myocardial damage,increased mobility and increased risk of stroke.
文摘Neighbourhood characteristics influence infant mortality above and beyond individual/household factors. In India, there are very few studies discussing the effects of neighbourhood characteristics on infant mortality. This study examined the effect of neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics on infant mortality using data from the India’s Third District Level Household Survey conducted in 2007-2008. Multilevel analyses applied on the representative sample of 168,625 nested within 14,193 communities using MCMC procedure. Results established that place of residence, neighbourhood socio-economic factors as important determinants of infant mortality. Overall, being born in affluent (OR: 0.79, p < 0.01), more educated (OR: 0.86, p < 0.01) and socially disadvantaged caste (OR: 0.83, p < 0.01) neighbourhood was associated with the significant reduction in hazards of infant death. The finding of this study suggests that effort should be made to reduce infant mortality in these high focus states by including policies which aim at improving infant survival in the neighbourhood that is economically and socially deprived.
文摘Background: Preterm birth is a primary cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality especially in low-income countries. Although understanding the preventable factors of neonatal deaths in preterm infants is required for timely interventions, data on those factors is lacking in Kenya. We attempted to determine mortality and its associated factors in preterm babies in Kenya. Methods and Materials: A hospital-based, prospective study was implemented from July 2019 to October 2019 involving 163 preterm neonates and their mothers admitted at Kenyatta National Hospital. A systematic random sampling method was used to recruit the study participants. Data on mortality and the associated factors in preterm neonates were collected using a pretested questionnaire for mothers and neonatal medical records. Data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: The mortality rate was 18.4%. Of the neonates who died, respiratory distress syndrome (63.3%) and neonatal sepsis (20.0%) were documented as the primary causes. Neonates born of single mother (AOR = 8.006, 95% CI 2.267 to 28.272, p = 0.001), unemployed (6.960, 1.059 - 45.757, p = 0.043), self-employed (4.040, 1.067 - 15.302, p = 0.040), anemic (7.465, 2.530 - 22.023, p < 0.001) and with history of bleeding during pregnancy were more likely to have died. The neonates born before 28 weeks of gestation (126.188, 14.554 - 1094.060, p < 0.001), those who did not cry immediately at birth (54.271, 5.970 - 493.395, p < 0.001) and the resuscitated at birth (54.406, 6.807 - 434.851, p < 0.001) were likely to die. Conclusion: High mortality rates of preterm neonates are attributed to both maternal and neonatal factors. Focused antenatal care should aim at early identification of high-risk mothers for early management of bleeding during pregnancy, close monitoring of nutritional status for mothers and health education.
文摘After Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease. According to WHO data, about 1% of the world’s population over 60 years of age is affected by PD, and its incidence increases with age. Information about mortality plays a relevant role in the planning and distribution of financial resources in the areas of public health, social assistance and the like. Thus, this article aims to describe the evolution of PD mortality in the Brazilian state capitals, in the period from 2010 to 2019. A descriptive and retrospective study was conducted, based on data collection (number of deaths and estimated resident population), by sex and age group, available in the DATASUS SIM. Mortality rates were calculated per 100 thousand inhabitants;and statistical tests of linear regression, the t-test, ANOVA and the Tukey test, using the R program, were performed to evaluate the significance of the data. The number of deaths and mortality rates were higher in males compared to females and the incidence of mortality was higher in the over 80s. Notably, the southeastern region presented the highest mortality rates, which is to be expected because it concentrates the highest proportion of elderly people. It is hoped that such data will aid the implementation of public health policies and adequate social assistance for those affected by PD, in order to improve their quality of life.
文摘Introduction: Little is known about the quality of healthcare in intensive care units (ICUs) in Poland. Data on patients hospitalized in ICUs in Warsaw and the results of their treatment are scarce. This information, crucial for improving the quality of ICU healthcare services, is not collected routinely. Quality indicators are essential in the concept of holistic quality management. Implementation of these indicators in ICUs is a complex and time-consuming process. Systematic increase in demand for quality assessment tools that can reflect real conditions of the practices of ICUs, prompts the search for effective solutions. Methods: The study included 12,155 patients hospitalized in 16 ICUs of Warsaw hospitals (8 ICUs, n = 3293 of the first level of care, and 8 ICUs, n = 8862 of the second level) between 1<sup>st</sup> January 2017 and 31<sup>st</sup> December 2018. ICUs in pediatric and oncological hospitals were excluded from the study. Characteristics and demography of patients as well as the structure, treatment and human resources of the ICUs in Warsaw were analyzed. Length of stay, unexpected extubations, nosocomial infections, ICU readmissions and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were retrieved from National Health Fund, Ministry of Health, and other public databases. Results: In primary level ICUs patients’ age (66.42 vs. 64.43 years;p = 0.005) and comorbidity rate (30.56% vs. 22.78%, p = 0.037) were higher when compared to ICUs of the second level of care. The crude mortality rate in ICUs in Warsaw was significantly higher than in other EU countries and differed between ICUs of the first and the second level (34.77% vs. 24.53%, respectively;p = 0.004). SMRs were however very low: 0.71 and 0.64 (ns), respectively. ICU readmission rate, unexpected extubations, central catheter related infections, and length of stay were identical in both groups. More patients were admitted to ICU form emergency department and/or discharged home in Level 1 ICUs (18.9% vs 12.9%, p Conclusions: There are no major differences in quality of care provided by Level 1 and Level 2 ICUs in Poland, although more rigorous adhesion to admission and discharge policies is needed. Implementation of the instruments for assessing quality of ICUs including benchmarking, self-assessment of departments and evaluation of changes resulting from audits according to the Deming cycle is of utmost importance. Standardization of quality measures and markers, communication, and cooperation in reporting and creation of ICU medical registers is necessary to improve the quality of healthcare.
基金conducted as a component in the "Carbon Sequestration Project in Bananal Island" sponsored by AES Barry FoundationCNPq(Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)KAAD(Catholic Academic Exchange Service,Germany)
文摘Background: The floodplain forests of Araguaia River, a clear-water river in the southeastern Amazon(Tocantins State, Brazil), are characterized by seasonal flooding up to 3.5 m height, low nutrient levels in the water, and seasonal drought periods of 4–5 months.Methods: We studied the forest dynamics(tree diameter growth, tree mortality and recruitment) of this unique forest ecosystem over a 5-year period by repeated censuses in 12 permanent plots established along a flooding gradient.Results: The cumulative basal area in the plots increased by 0.84(±0.45) m2?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1)(mean ±SD) in the annual y-flooded(AF) plots in lower terrain and by 0.69(±1.00) m2?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1) in the higher non-annual y flooded(NAF) plots, corresponding to an aboveground biomass increase of 0.81(±0.57) and 0.69(±1.58) Mg?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1) in the AF and NAF plots, indicating a recent carbon sink in the biomass. Mean diameter growth rate was 1.8(±0.44) mm?yr^(–1) in the AF and 2.0(±0.56) mm?yr^(–1) in the NAF plots(corresponding to a coarse wood production of 1.53(±1.29) and 2.02(±0.52) Mg?ha^(–1)?yr^(–1)),indicating no flooding effect on radial growth. Mean mortality rates in the 5-year period were 1.9(±0.37)%?yr^(–1) in the AF plots and 1.8(±0.87)%?yr^(–1) in the NAF plots with no differences along the flooding gradient. Highest mortalities were registered in the AF plots for the 10–20 cm dbh class(2.4%?yr^(–1)), likely as a consequence of flooding,and in the NAF plots for the 40–50 cm dbh class(3.0%?yr^(–1)), probably mainly caused by ENSO-related droughts.Conclusions: We conclude that these drought-affected tropical floodplain forests have a lower standing biomass and aboveground productivity than central Amazonian floodplain forests in more humid climates, and the imprint of the flooding gradient on stand dynamics is relatively weak, which may result from the lower flooding height and the interaction of flooding with low nutrient supply and periodic drought.
基金supported by grants from Fundacao de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro-FAPERJ [E-26/2014-202.008]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico–CNPq [302401/2016-4]
文摘Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was to describe time trends and distribution of pancreaticoduodenectomies(PDs) performed for treating PC in Brazil in recent years. Methods: Data were retrospectively obtained from Brazilian Health Public System(namely DATASUS) regarding hospitalizations for PC and PD in Brazil from January 2008 to December 2015. PC and PD rates and their mortalities were estimated from DATASUS hospitalizations and analyzed for age, gender and demographic characteristics. Results: A total of 2364 PDs were retrieved. Albeit PC incidence more than doubled, the number of PDs increased only 37%. Most PDs were performed in men(52.2%) and patients between 50 and 69 years old(59.5%). Patients not surgically treated and those 70 years or older had the highest in-hospital mortality rates. The most developed regions(Southeast and South) as well as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered 76.2% and 54.8% of the procedures, respectively. LMIM PD mortality fluctuated, ranging from 13.6% in 2008 to 11.8% in 2015. Conclusions: This study suggests a trend towards regionalization and volume-outcome relationships for PD due to PC, as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered most of the PDs and more stable mortality rates. The substantial differences between PD and PC increasing rates reveals a limiting step on the health system resoluteness. Reduction in the number of hospital beds and late access to hospitalization, despite improvement in diagnostic methods, could at least in part explain these findings.
文摘The spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has already taken on pandemic extents,influencing even more than 200 nations in a couple of months.Although,regulation measures in China have decreased new cases by over 98%,this decrease is not the situation everywhere,and most of the countries still have been affected by it.The objective of this research work is to make a comparative analysis of the top 5 most populated countries namely United States,India,China,Pakistan and Indonesia,from 1st January 2020 to 31st July 2020.This research work also targets to predict an increase in the number of deaths and total infected cases in these five countries.In our research,the performance of the proposed framework is determined by using three Machine Learning(ML)regression algorithms namely Linear Regression(LR),Support Vector Regression(SVR),andRandom Forest(RF)Regression.The proposed model is also validated upon the infected and death cases of further dates.The performance of these three algorithms is compared using the RootMean Square Error(RMSE)metrics.Random Forest algorithm shows best performance as compared to other proposed algorithms,with the lowest RMSE value in the prediction of total infected and total deaths cases for all the top five most populated countries.
基金Supported by Science and Technology Project of China Tobacco Guizhou Provincial Corporation(201918)Guizhou Province Academic Pioneer and Academic Pioneer Construction。
文摘[Objectives]The paper was to study the occurrence regularity and life history of cigarette beetle Lasioderrma serricorne(Fabricius)in tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop.[Methods]With the tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop as the survey site,the occurrence regularity of L.serricorne was investigated,and the life history table was inferred according to its biological characteristics.The temperature,humidity and duration of tobacco leaf threshing and redrying were simulated in the laboratory to study the survival rate of all states of L.serricorne in this environment.[Results]The lifecycle of L.serricorne in tobacco leaf threshing and redrying workshop was:the overwintering generation pupated in late February;the pupa began to emerge in early March,and reached its peak in late March.The first-generation eggs started hatching in late March,pupated in late May,emerged in early June,and reached the peak eclosion of the first-generation adults in mid-July.The second-generation eggs began to hatch in late July,pupated in mid-August,emerged in late August,and reached the peak eclosion of the second-generation adults in mid-September.The third-generation eggs began to hatch in mid-September;most of the larvae began to overwinter,some pupated in mid-November and survived the winter as pupae,and some pupae emerged to adults.The survival test results of different states of L.serricorne under simulated temperature,humidity and duration in the tobacco leaf threshing and redrying process showed that the mortality rates of eggs in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 51.22%,90.24% and 100%,and the mortalities of larvae in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 18.30%,81.25%and 100%,respectively.The mortalities of pupae in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 69.39%,100% and 100%,and the mortalities of adults in simulated 1,2 and 3 conditions were about 100%,100% and 100%,respectively.[Conclusions]L.serricorne of different states can be killed by appropriately raising the temperature during threshing and redrying.
