[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucello...[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucellosis risk level in different regions.[Method] From 4 dimensions of feeding and importing,breeding,housing and polyculture situation,an evaluation index system was set up,and diary cattle brucellosis risk survey was conducted in 3 typical regions.Finally,systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method was applied to perform data analysis.[Result] The strong-to-weak sequence of Level 1 impact factor of diary cattle brucellosis was as follows：feeding and importinghousingpolyculture situationbreeding;the sequence of Level 2 impact factor was U32〉U12〉U11〉U31〉U21〉U42〉U43〉U23〉U22〉U41;the risk level sequence of 3 typical regions was Province A（County A1,A2,A3）Province B（County B1,B2,B3）Province C（County C1,C2,C3）.[Conclusion] According to the weight of Level 1 index strata,administrative departments at all levels and dairy cattle farmers should lay emphasis on the aspects of feeding,importing and housing;viewed from the perspective of Level 2 index strata,dairy cattle farmers should value the siting of cattle field,the brucellosis surveillance before importing and milking modes most.According to the diary cattle brucellosis risk level of 3 typical regions,if administrative departments at all levels strengthen peoples＇ awareness of their personal health and increase investment in this area,with new healthy cultured atmosphere built,the risk level of diary cattle brucellosis will surly decline.展开更多
To promote and develop green buildings,a standardized,applicable and easily operable index system for the assessment of such buildings was established on the basis of life cycle cost effectiveness.From the perspective...To promote and develop green buildings,a standardized,applicable and easily operable index system for the assessment of such buildings was established on the basis of life cycle cost effectiveness.From the perspectives of environment-friendly materials,water resource environment,energy and environment,quality of indoor and outdoor environment,operation and management,and economical efficiency of life cycle,a modified index system was built,AHP was applied to obtain weights of indexes,evaluation methods of the grey system were used to evaluate green buildings,case study was adopted to verify the practicability and scientificity of the method.The results showed that Grey Clustering Method was an objective and reliable tool to evaluate green buildings,the calculation was simple,practical and easily operable,and moreover,the assessment process could be optimized by computer programming to improve its efficiency and precision.展开更多
Coal mine safety is a complex system, which is controlled by a number of interrelated factors and is difficult to estimate. This paper proposes an index system of safety assessment based on correlated factors involved...Coal mine safety is a complex system, which is controlled by a number of interrelated factors and is difficult to estimate. This paper proposes an index system of safety assessment based on correlated factors involved in coal mining and a comprehensive evaluation model that combines the advantages of the AHP and a grey clustering method to guarantee the accuracy and objectivity of weight coefficients. First, we confirmed the weight of every index using the AHP, then did a general safety assessment by means of a grey clustering method. This model analyses the status of mining safety both qualitatively and quantitatively. It keeps management and technical groups informed of the situation of the coal production line in real time, which aids in making correct decisions based on practical safety issues. A case study in the application of the model is presented. The results show that the method is applicable and realistic with regard to the core of a coal mine's safety management. Consequently, the safe production of a mine and the awareness of advanced safe production management is accelerated.展开更多
It is difficult to establish the integrated method to assess the ambient air quality because the atmospheric environmental system is composed of several environmental elements, which contains many contanination factor...It is difficult to establish the integrated method to assess the ambient air quality because the atmospheric environmental system is composed of several environmental elements, which contains many contanination factors. In view of the typical grey system character of the monitored data in the ambient air, this paper introduces the weighted value to obtain related degree during applying the method of grey related degree analvsis to assess ambient air quality by each polluting factor producing different effects on the environment quality. This method could give more reasonable and reliable evaluating results. Taking the monitored data of Harbin, a provincial city of Heilongjiang, for example in this paper, the result of assessment by this method was coincide,It with the actual environmental quality of Harbin.展开更多
The membership of every target and the mathematic model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment are set up by using fuzzy theories and means in this study.Tourism resources of main scenic spots areas in Laiyuan ...The membership of every target and the mathematic model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment are set up by using fuzzy theories and means in this study.Tourism resources of main scenic spots areas in Laiyuan County of Hebei Province are evaluated and classified by applying the model.The results of evaluation indicate that 10 of these scenic spots such as Baoziwo and Qingyunfeng are grade A,and 6 of them such as Yunpan Valley and Xianrenqiao are grade B.The peak forest scenic area in the Baishishan Geological Park and Shipuxia Scenic Area are grade A,and Jumayuan Scenic Area is grade B.Furthermore,suggestions are put forward based on the scientific and feasible development of tourism resources.展开更多
Taking students from Sanya Aviation and Tourism College as research objects, the relationship between physical course and physical health is discussed with the method of grey relational analysis. The index with the hi...Taking students from Sanya Aviation and Tourism College as research objects, the relationship between physical course and physical health is discussed with the method of grey relational analysis. The index with the highest degree of correlation between female students and teaching assessment was the index related to the physical core competence exercise, while the indexes with the highest degree of correlation between male students and teaching assessment were the indexes related to the maintenance of strong and healthy body shape and physical core competence. Thus, in the physical education course setting of higher vocational colleges and in the process of the integrated development between their teaching and students’ physical health, their teaching mode should aim at students’ exercise needs and promoting the quality improvement of their physical education teaching.展开更多
The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismi...The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes after the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows or shallow landslides. A total of 48 debris flows, all triggered by heavy rainfall on 13th August 20l0, are described in this paper. Field investigation, supported by remote sensing image interpretation, was conducted to interpret the co-seismic landslides in the debris flow gullies. Specific characteristics of the study area such as slope, aspect, elevation, channel gradient, lithology, and gully density were selected for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. A score was given to all the debris flow gullies based on the probability of debris flow occurrence for the selected factors. In order to get the contribution of the different factors, principal component analyses were applied. A comprehensive score was obtained for the 48 debris flow gullies which enabled us to make a susceptibility map for debris flows with three classes. Twenty-two gullies have a high susceptibility, twenty gullies show a moderate susceptibility and six gullies have a low susceptibility for debris flows.展开更多
Urbanization strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is an effective instrument to enhance the harmo-nious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Ur-baniza...Urbanization strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is an effective instrument to enhance the harmo-nious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Ur-banization strategic environmental assessment integration technology system (SEA-ITS) is composed of "3S" (RS, GIS and GPS), environmental expert system and environmental model system, coupling with appropriate SEA working process closely. In this paper, the structure and components of SEA-ITS are analyzed based on Chinese characteristics, meanwhile methods to fulfill the following system functions are discussed: urbanization SEA in-quiring, analysis, discrimination, assessment, prediction, decision-making and output. Moreover, methods and tech-nologies employed in different urbanization SEA hierarchies are summarized. As a case study, urbanization SEA-ITS is applied in Changchun City to solving complex real problems. Methods such as system dynamics and grey cluster are adopted to achieve the environmental impact assessment on the eco-industrial system planning. It is revealed that the system designed is capable of reflecting the dynamic behavior of eco-industrial system under different sce-narios, meanwhile accomplishing strategy optimization and supplying scientific reference. The 4th strategy, namely concerning on economy increase and its interaction with science, technology and environment progress, would have the best efficiency. Further, more attention should be paid to the secondary development of integration techniques and function modification system of urbanization SEA-ITS.展开更多
Data processing of small samples is an important and valuable research problem in the electronic equipment test. Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples, it is di...Data processing of small samples is an important and valuable research problem in the electronic equipment test. Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples, it is difficult to use the traditional probability theory to process the samples and assess the degree of uncertainty. Using the grey relational theory and the norm theory, the grey distance information approach, which is based on the grey distance information quantity of a sample and the average grey distance information quantity of the samples, is proposed in this article. The definitions of the grey distance information quantity of a sample and the average grey distance information quantity of the samples, with their characteristics and algorithms, are introduced. The correlative problems, including the algorithm of estimated value, the standard deviation, and the acceptance and rejection criteria of the samples and estimated results, are also proposed. Moreover, the information whitening ratio is introduced to select the weight algorithm and to compare the different samples. Several examples are given to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The examples show that the proposed approach, which has no demand for the probability distribution of small samples, is feasible and effective.展开更多
Due to the strict requirements of extremely high accuracy and fast computational speed, real-time transient stability assessment(TSA) has always been a tough problem in power system analysis.Fortunately, the developme...Due to the strict requirements of extremely high accuracy and fast computational speed, real-time transient stability assessment(TSA) has always been a tough problem in power system analysis.Fortunately, the development of artificial intelligence and big data technologies provide the new prospective methods to this issue, and there have been some successful trials on using intelligent method, such as support vector machine(SVM) method.However, the traditional SVM method cannot avoid false classification, and the interpretability of the results needs to be strengthened and clear.This paper proposes a new strategy to solve the shortcomings of traditional SVM,which can improve the interpretability of results, and avoid the problem of false alarms and missed alarms.In this strategy, two improved SVMs, which are called aggressive support vector machine(ASVM) and conservative support vector machine(CSVM), are proposed to improve the accuracy of the classification.And two improved SVMs can ensure the stability or instability of the power system in most cases.For the small amount of cases with undetermined stability, a new concept of grey region(GR) is built to measure the uncertainty of the results, and GR can assessment the instable probability of the power system.Cases studies on IEEE 39-bus system and realistic provincial power grid illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed strategy.展开更多
The application of Bayesian network(BN) theory in risk assessment is an emerging trend. But in cases where data are incomplete and variables are mutually related, its application is restricted. To overcome these probl...The application of Bayesian network(BN) theory in risk assessment is an emerging trend. But in cases where data are incomplete and variables are mutually related, its application is restricted. To overcome these problems, an improved BN assessment model with parameter retrieval and decorrelation ability is proposed.First, multivariate nonlinear planning is applied to the feedback error learning of parameters. A genetic algorithm is used to learn the probability distribution of nodes that lack quantitative data. Then, based on an improved grey relational analysis that considers the correlation of variation rate, the optimal weight that characterizes the correlation is calculated and the weighted BN is improved for decorrelation. An improved risk assessment model based on the weighted BN then is built. An assessment of sea ice disaster shows that the model can be applied for risk assessment with incomplete data and variable correlation.展开更多
Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model ba...Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model based on grey relation degree analysis to calibrate risk coefficients of DSF model. To solve the optimum solution, a genetic algorithm is employed. Finally, the DSF model is verified through a real-world driving experiment. Results show that the DSF model is consistent with driver's hazard perception and more sensitive than TTC. Moreover, the proposed DSF model offers a novel way for criticality assessment and decision-making of advanced driver assistance systems and intelligent connected vehicles.展开更多
Multicoloured languages play an irreplaceable role in the whole world as a useful communication tool. With the development of technology and science, varieties of languages have an ideal prospective tendency to evolut...Multicoloured languages play an irreplaceable role in the whole world as a useful communication tool. With the development of technology and science, varieties of languages have an ideal prospective tendency to evolution during the long and wonderful history. Will they be thriving or decaying? To begin with, aimed to gain general tendency about the quantity of languages' speakers, we employ the Grey prediction to capture associative curve which can be seen in Figure 1. From the trend of this vivid figure, we not only can come to the conclusion that the number of English and Chinese users tend to increase but also find that Spanish development will reach the period of stagnation. Secondly, for further improvement, we take birth rate, death rate, economic factors and the immigration into consideration and establish the language communication model. This model is deduced from the population prediction model and virus transmission model. After data normalization, the eventual curve indicates that current top-ten languages seem to be replaced by other languages. This transformation phenomenon also occurs among such top-ten languages. For instance, Hindustani will replace Spanish in the future when seen from Table 1. What's more, after predicting the migration pattern, we can draw the conclusion that some range of languages' dissemination has obvious change. As show in vivid Figure 14, we know English will popularize widely among neighboring countries such as Canada, Mexico, Cuba and Russia. Moreover, with regard to how to manage international offices' quantity and locations in the world, we construct the efficiency model with combination of the Bayes' probability theory and Fussy comprehensive assessment. As a result, we obtain 9 optimal plans to establish the international offices. Intelligible result is showed in Table 4 and Table 5. In short, our model is reasonable and feasible, which can accommodate to different situation.展开更多
基金Supported by Special Research Fund for Public Sector(Agriculture)(200903055)~~
文摘[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucellosis risk level in different regions.[Method] From 4 dimensions of feeding and importing,breeding,housing and polyculture situation,an evaluation index system was set up,and diary cattle brucellosis risk survey was conducted in 3 typical regions.Finally,systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method was applied to perform data analysis.[Result] The strong-to-weak sequence of Level 1 impact factor of diary cattle brucellosis was as follows：feeding and importinghousingpolyculture situationbreeding;the sequence of Level 2 impact factor was U32〉U12〉U11〉U31〉U21〉U42〉U43〉U23〉U22〉U41;the risk level sequence of 3 typical regions was Province A（County A1,A2,A3）Province B（County B1,B2,B3）Province C（County C1,C2,C3）.[Conclusion] According to the weight of Level 1 index strata,administrative departments at all levels and dairy cattle farmers should lay emphasis on the aspects of feeding,importing and housing;viewed from the perspective of Level 2 index strata,dairy cattle farmers should value the siting of cattle field,the brucellosis surveillance before importing and milking modes most.According to the diary cattle brucellosis risk level of 3 typical regions,if administrative departments at all levels strengthen peoples＇ awareness of their personal health and increase investment in this area,with new healthy cultured atmosphere built,the risk level of diary cattle brucellosis will surly decline.
基金Supported by Foundation of the Construction Department of Zhejiang Province:Study on Economic Efficiency of Water-Saving and Reclaimed Water Reuse of Green Buildings(2008009)~~
文摘To promote and develop green buildings,a standardized,applicable and easily operable index system for the assessment of such buildings was established on the basis of life cycle cost effectiveness.From the perspectives of environment-friendly materials,water resource environment,energy and environment,quality of indoor and outdoor environment,operation and management,and economical efficiency of life cycle,a modified index system was built,AHP was applied to obtain weights of indexes,evaluation methods of the grey system were used to evaluate green buildings,case study was adopted to verify the practicability and scientificity of the method.The results showed that Grey Clustering Method was an objective and reliable tool to evaluate green buildings,the calculation was simple,practical and easily operable,and moreover,the assessment process could be optimized by computer programming to improve its efficiency and precision.
文摘Coal mine safety is a complex system, which is controlled by a number of interrelated factors and is difficult to estimate. This paper proposes an index system of safety assessment based on correlated factors involved in coal mining and a comprehensive evaluation model that combines the advantages of the AHP and a grey clustering method to guarantee the accuracy and objectivity of weight coefficients. First, we confirmed the weight of every index using the AHP, then did a general safety assessment by means of a grey clustering method. This model analyses the status of mining safety both qualitatively and quantitatively. It keeps management and technical groups informed of the situation of the coal production line in real time, which aids in making correct decisions based on practical safety issues. A case study in the application of the model is presented. The results show that the method is applicable and realistic with regard to the core of a coal mine's safety management. Consequently, the safe production of a mine and the awareness of advanced safe production management is accelerated.
文摘It is difficult to establish the integrated method to assess the ambient air quality because the atmospheric environmental system is composed of several environmental elements, which contains many contanination factors. In view of the typical grey system character of the monitored data in the ambient air, this paper introduces the weighted value to obtain related degree during applying the method of grey related degree analvsis to assess ambient air quality by each polluting factor producing different effects on the environment quality. This method could give more reasonable and reliable evaluating results. Taking the monitored data of Harbin, a provincial city of Heilongjiang, for example in this paper, the result of assessment by this method was coincide,It with the actual environmental quality of Harbin.
文摘The membership of every target and the mathematic model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment are set up by using fuzzy theories and means in this study.Tourism resources of main scenic spots areas in Laiyuan County of Hebei Province are evaluated and classified by applying the model.The results of evaluation indicate that 10 of these scenic spots such as Baoziwo and Qingyunfeng are grade A,and 6 of them such as Yunpan Valley and Xianrenqiao are grade B.The peak forest scenic area in the Baishishan Geological Park and Shipuxia Scenic Area are grade A,and Jumayuan Scenic Area is grade B.Furthermore,suggestions are put forward based on the scientific and feasible development of tourism resources.
文摘Taking students from Sanya Aviation and Tourism College as research objects, the relationship between physical course and physical health is discussed with the method of grey relational analysis. The index with the highest degree of correlation between female students and teaching assessment was the index related to the physical core competence exercise, while the indexes with the highest degree of correlation between male students and teaching assessment were the indexes related to the maintenance of strong and healthy body shape and physical core competence. Thus, in the physical education course setting of higher vocational colleges and in the process of the integrated development between their teaching and students’ physical health, their teaching mode should aim at students’ exercise needs and promoting the quality improvement of their physical education teaching.
基金supported by the Key Projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program (Grant No. 2011BAK12B01)Basic Scientific Project of Ministry of Sciences and Technology of China (Grant No. 2011FY110100-3)
文摘The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes after the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows or shallow landslides. A total of 48 debris flows, all triggered by heavy rainfall on 13th August 20l0, are described in this paper. Field investigation, supported by remote sensing image interpretation, was conducted to interpret the co-seismic landslides in the debris flow gullies. Specific characteristics of the study area such as slope, aspect, elevation, channel gradient, lithology, and gully density were selected for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. A score was given to all the debris flow gullies based on the probability of debris flow occurrence for the selected factors. In order to get the contribution of the different factors, principal component analyses were applied. A comprehensive score was obtained for the 48 debris flow gullies which enabled us to make a susceptibility map for debris flows with three classes. Twenty-two gullies have a high susceptibility, twenty gullies show a moderate susceptibility and six gullies have a low susceptibility for debris flows.
基金Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2005CB724207)
文摘Urbanization strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is an effective instrument to enhance the harmo-nious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Ur-banization strategic environmental assessment integration technology system (SEA-ITS) is composed of "3S" (RS, GIS and GPS), environmental expert system and environmental model system, coupling with appropriate SEA working process closely. In this paper, the structure and components of SEA-ITS are analyzed based on Chinese characteristics, meanwhile methods to fulfill the following system functions are discussed: urbanization SEA in-quiring, analysis, discrimination, assessment, prediction, decision-making and output. Moreover, methods and tech-nologies employed in different urbanization SEA hierarchies are summarized. As a case study, urbanization SEA-ITS is applied in Changchun City to solving complex real problems. Methods such as system dynamics and grey cluster are adopted to achieve the environmental impact assessment on the eco-industrial system planning. It is revealed that the system designed is capable of reflecting the dynamic behavior of eco-industrial system under different sce-narios, meanwhile accomplishing strategy optimization and supplying scientific reference. The 4th strategy, namely concerning on economy increase and its interaction with science, technology and environment progress, would have the best efficiency. Further, more attention should be paid to the secondary development of integration techniques and function modification system of urbanization SEA-ITS.
文摘Data processing of small samples is an important and valuable research problem in the electronic equipment test. Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples, it is difficult to use the traditional probability theory to process the samples and assess the degree of uncertainty. Using the grey relational theory and the norm theory, the grey distance information approach, which is based on the grey distance information quantity of a sample and the average grey distance information quantity of the samples, is proposed in this article. The definitions of the grey distance information quantity of a sample and the average grey distance information quantity of the samples, with their characteristics and algorithms, are introduced. The correlative problems, including the algorithm of estimated value, the standard deviation, and the acceptance and rejection criteria of the samples and estimated results, are also proposed. Moreover, the information whitening ratio is introduced to select the weight algorithm and to compare the different samples. Several examples are given to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The examples show that the proposed approach, which has no demand for the probability distribution of small samples, is feasible and effective.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51777104)China State Key Laboratory of Power System (No.SKLD16Z08)
文摘Due to the strict requirements of extremely high accuracy and fast computational speed, real-time transient stability assessment(TSA) has always been a tough problem in power system analysis.Fortunately, the development of artificial intelligence and big data technologies provide the new prospective methods to this issue, and there have been some successful trials on using intelligent method, such as support vector machine(SVM) method.However, the traditional SVM method cannot avoid false classification, and the interpretability of the results needs to be strengthened and clear.This paper proposes a new strategy to solve the shortcomings of traditional SVM,which can improve the interpretability of results, and avoid the problem of false alarms and missed alarms.In this strategy, two improved SVMs, which are called aggressive support vector machine(ASVM) and conservative support vector machine(CSVM), are proposed to improve the accuracy of the classification.And two improved SVMs can ensure the stability or instability of the power system in most cases.For the small amount of cases with undetermined stability, a new concept of grey region(GR) is built to measure the uncertainty of the results, and GR can assessment the instable probability of the power system.Cases studies on IEEE 39-bus system and realistic provincial power grid illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed strategy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41375002,51609254)the Provincial Natural Science Fund(BK20161464)of Jiangsu
文摘The application of Bayesian network(BN) theory in risk assessment is an emerging trend. But in cases where data are incomplete and variables are mutually related, its application is restricted. To overcome these problems, an improved BN assessment model with parameter retrieval and decorrelation ability is proposed.First, multivariate nonlinear planning is applied to the feedback error learning of parameters. A genetic algorithm is used to learn the probability distribution of nodes that lack quantitative data. Then, based on an improved grey relational analysis that considers the correlation of variation rate, the optimal weight that characterizes the correlation is calculated and the weighted BN is improved for decorrelation. An improved risk assessment model based on the weighted BN then is built. An assessment of sea ice disaster shows that the model can be applied for risk assessment with incomplete data and variable correlation.
基金Projects(51475254,51625503)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(MCM20150302)supported by the Joint Project of Tsinghua and China Mobile,ChinaProject supported by the joint Project of Tsinghua and Daimler Greater China Ltd.,Beijing,China
文摘Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model based on grey relation degree analysis to calibrate risk coefficients of DSF model. To solve the optimum solution, a genetic algorithm is employed. Finally, the DSF model is verified through a real-world driving experiment. Results show that the DSF model is consistent with driver's hazard perception and more sensitive than TTC. Moreover, the proposed DSF model offers a novel way for criticality assessment and decision-making of advanced driver assistance systems and intelligent connected vehicles.
文摘Multicoloured languages play an irreplaceable role in the whole world as a useful communication tool. With the development of technology and science, varieties of languages have an ideal prospective tendency to evolution during the long and wonderful history. Will they be thriving or decaying? To begin with, aimed to gain general tendency about the quantity of languages' speakers, we employ the Grey prediction to capture associative curve which can be seen in Figure 1. From the trend of this vivid figure, we not only can come to the conclusion that the number of English and Chinese users tend to increase but also find that Spanish development will reach the period of stagnation. Secondly, for further improvement, we take birth rate, death rate, economic factors and the immigration into consideration and establish the language communication model. This model is deduced from the population prediction model and virus transmission model. After data normalization, the eventual curve indicates that current top-ten languages seem to be replaced by other languages. This transformation phenomenon also occurs among such top-ten languages. For instance, Hindustani will replace Spanish in the future when seen from Table 1. What's more, after predicting the migration pattern, we can draw the conclusion that some range of languages' dissemination has obvious change. As show in vivid Figure 14, we know English will popularize widely among neighboring countries such as Canada, Mexico, Cuba and Russia. Moreover, with regard to how to manage international offices' quantity and locations in the world, we construct the efficiency model with combination of the Bayes' probability theory and Fussy comprehensive assessment. As a result, we obtain 9 optimal plans to establish the international offices. Intelligible result is showed in Table 4 and Table 5. In short, our model is reasonable and feasible, which can accommodate to different situation.
