BACKGROUND Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage(AEVH)is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure,causing acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To analyze if the presence and grad...BACKGROUND Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage(AEVH)is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure,causing acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To analyze if the presence and grading of ACLF as defined by European Society for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure(EASL-CLIF)is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients presenting AEVH.METHODS Retrospective cohort study executed in Hospital Geral de Caxias do Sul.Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for patients who received terlipressin.Medical records were reviewed in order to determine the diagnosis of cirrhosis and AEVH,including 97 patients.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.RESULTS All-cause mortality for AEVH patients was 36%,40.2%and 49.4%for 30-,90-and 365-day,respectively.The prevalence of ACLF was 41.3%.Of these,35%grade 1,50%grade 2 and 15%grade 3.In multivariate analysis,the non-use of non-selective beta-blockers,presence and higher grading of ACLF and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with higher mortality for 30-day with the addition of higher Child-Pugh scores for 90-day period.CONCLUSION Presence and grading of ACLF according to the EASL-CLIF criteria was independently associated with higher 30-and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to AEVH.展开更多
BACKGROUND: Because of the complicated pathological features after liver transplantation, severe sepsis is difficult to treat and often leads to death. This study was undertaken to analyze the role of orthotopic liver...BACKGROUND: Because of the complicated pathological features after liver transplantation, severe sepsis is difficult to treat and often leads to death. This study was undertaken to analyze the role of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with severe sepsis and to evaluate the effect of the scoring system. METHODS: Fifty-six patients conformed to the inclusion criteria. They were divided into two groups: non-OLT group (group A) and OLT group (group B). Besides the general data of the patients, the surveillance of blood lactate, the number of failed organs, acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) and mutiple organ dysfunction score (MODS) were evaluated at the 1st, 3rd and 7th day after OLT. RESULTS: The mortality during hospitalization was 30% in the non-OLT group and 57.6% in the other group. The level of blood lactate at the 1st day of OLT increased more significantly in the OLT group than in the non-OLT group (P<0.01). It was decreased but higher than that in the non-OLT group in the seven days after OLT. The number of failed organs in the OLT group was greater than that in the non-OLT group (P<0.01). The continuous score of APACHEⅡwas not significantly different in the two groups. But the continuous MODS in the OLT group was higher than that in the non-OLT group (P<0.01), which was consistent with the number of failed organs. CONCLUSIONS: The persistently higher level of blood lactate during 7 days may be a dependent risk factor. Immunosuppression may be another risk factor for OLT patients. The mortality of OLT in patients with severe sepsis in 28 days is almost double that in non-OLT patients. The MODS score is better than the APACHEⅡscore in the assessment of organ failure in OLT patients with severe sepsis. The standard scoring system could be improved or a new scoring system that includes the blood lactate score should be established for liver transplantation.展开更多
Background and Aims:Approximately 10%of patients with acute decompensated(AD)cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)within 28 days.Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict.Therefore,w...Background and Aims:Approximately 10%of patients with acute decompensated(AD)cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)within 28 days.Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict.Therefore,we aimed to establish and validate an algorithm to identify these patients on hospitalization.Methods:Hospitalized patients with AD who developed ACLF within 28 days were considered pre-ACLF.Organ dysfunction was defined accord-ing to the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure as-sessment(CLIF-SOFA)criteria,and proven bacterial infec-tion was taken to indicate immune system dysfunction.A retrospective multicenter cohort and prospective one were used to derive and to validate the potential algorithm,re-spectively.A miss rate of<5%was acceptable for the calcu-lating algorithm to rule out pre-ACLF.Results:In the deri-vation cohort(n=673),46 patients developed ACLF within 28 days.Serum total bilirubin,creatinine,international normalized ratio,and present proven bacterial infection at admission were associated with the development of ACLF.AD patients with≥2 organ dysfunctions had a higher risk for pre-ACLF patients[odds ratio=16.58195%confidence interval:(4.271-64.363),p<0.001].In the derivation co-hort,67.5%of patients(454/673)had≤1 organ dysfunction and two patients(0.4%)were pre-ACLF,with a miss rate of 4.3%(missed/total,2/46).In the validation cohort,65.9%of patients(914/1388)had≤1 organ dysfunction,and four(0.3%)of them were pre-ACLF,with a miss rate of 3.4%(missed/total,4/117).Conclusions:AD patients with≤1 organ dysfunction had a significantly lower risk of developing ACLF within 28 days of admission and could be safely ruled out with a pre-ACLF miss rate of<5%.展开更多
Background:Accurate risk stratification of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is essential for optimizing resource allocation,delivering targeted interventions,and maximizing patient surviv...Background:Accurate risk stratification of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is essential for optimizing resource allocation,delivering targeted interventions,and maximizing patient survival probability.Machine learning(ML)techniques are attracting increased interest for the development of prediction models as they excel in the analysis of complex signals in data-rich environments such as critical care.Methods:We retrieved data on patients with COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit(ICU)between March and October 2020 from the RIsk Stratification in COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit(RISC-19-ICU)registry.We applied the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm to the data to predict as a binary out-come the increase or decrease in patients’Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score on day 5 after ICU admission.The model was iteratively cross-validated in different subsets of the study cohort.Results:The final study population consisted of 675 patients.The XGBoost model correctly predicted a decrease in SOFA score in 320/385(83%)critically ill COVID-19 patients,and an increase in the score in 210/290(72%)patients.The area under the mean receiver operating characteristic curve for XGBoost was significantly higher than that for the logistic regression model(0.86 vs.0.69,P<0.01[paired t-test with 95%confidence interval]).Conclusions:The XGBoost model predicted the change in SOFA score in critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU and can guide clinical decision support systems(CDSSs)aimed at optimizing available resources.展开更多
基金This study was approved by the Research ethics committee of Universidade de Caxias do Sul on June 20,2017,under protocol no.66646617.3.0000.5341.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage(AEVH)is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure,causing acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To analyze if the presence and grading of ACLF as defined by European Society for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure(EASL-CLIF)is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients presenting AEVH.METHODS Retrospective cohort study executed in Hospital Geral de Caxias do Sul.Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for patients who received terlipressin.Medical records were reviewed in order to determine the diagnosis of cirrhosis and AEVH,including 97 patients.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.RESULTS All-cause mortality for AEVH patients was 36%,40.2%and 49.4%for 30-,90-and 365-day,respectively.The prevalence of ACLF was 41.3%.Of these,35%grade 1,50%grade 2 and 15%grade 3.In multivariate analysis,the non-use of non-selective beta-blockers,presence and higher grading of ACLF and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with higher mortality for 30-day with the addition of higher Child-Pugh scores for 90-day period.CONCLUSION Presence and grading of ACLF according to the EASL-CLIF criteria was independently associated with higher 30-and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to AEVH.
文摘BACKGROUND: Because of the complicated pathological features after liver transplantation, severe sepsis is difficult to treat and often leads to death. This study was undertaken to analyze the role of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with severe sepsis and to evaluate the effect of the scoring system. METHODS: Fifty-six patients conformed to the inclusion criteria. They were divided into two groups: non-OLT group (group A) and OLT group (group B). Besides the general data of the patients, the surveillance of blood lactate, the number of failed organs, acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) and mutiple organ dysfunction score (MODS) were evaluated at the 1st, 3rd and 7th day after OLT. RESULTS: The mortality during hospitalization was 30% in the non-OLT group and 57.6% in the other group. The level of blood lactate at the 1st day of OLT increased more significantly in the OLT group than in the non-OLT group (P<0.01). It was decreased but higher than that in the non-OLT group in the seven days after OLT. The number of failed organs in the OLT group was greater than that in the non-OLT group (P<0.01). The continuous score of APACHEⅡwas not significantly different in the two groups. But the continuous MODS in the OLT group was higher than that in the non-OLT group (P<0.01), which was consistent with the number of failed organs. CONCLUSIONS: The persistently higher level of blood lactate during 7 days may be a dependent risk factor. Immunosuppression may be another risk factor for OLT patients. The mortality of OLT in patients with severe sepsis in 28 days is almost double that in non-OLT patients. The MODS score is better than the APACHEⅡscore in the assessment of organ failure in OLT patients with severe sepsis. The standard scoring system could be improved or a new scoring system that includes the blood lactate score should be established for liver transplantation.
基金the National Science and Technology Major Project(2018ZX10723203,2018ZX10302206)National Natural Science Foundation of China(82070650,81270533,81470038)+7 种基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC0908100)Local Innova-tive and Research Teams Project of Guangdong Pearl River Talents Program(2017BT01S131)Key Scientific and Technological Program of Guangzhou City(201508020262)Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province(2014B020228003,2015B020226004)Clinical Research Program of Nanfang Hospital,Southern Medical University(2018CR037,2020CR026)Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province(2019B020227004)Clinical Research Startup Program of Southern Medical University by High-level University Construction Funding of Guangdong Provincial Department of Education(LC2019ZD006,LC2016PY005)President Foundation of Nanfang Hospital,Southern Medical University(2019Z003).
文摘Background and Aims:Approximately 10%of patients with acute decompensated(AD)cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)within 28 days.Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict.Therefore,we aimed to establish and validate an algorithm to identify these patients on hospitalization.Methods:Hospitalized patients with AD who developed ACLF within 28 days were considered pre-ACLF.Organ dysfunction was defined accord-ing to the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure as-sessment(CLIF-SOFA)criteria,and proven bacterial infec-tion was taken to indicate immune system dysfunction.A retrospective multicenter cohort and prospective one were used to derive and to validate the potential algorithm,re-spectively.A miss rate of<5%was acceptable for the calcu-lating algorithm to rule out pre-ACLF.Results:In the deri-vation cohort(n=673),46 patients developed ACLF within 28 days.Serum total bilirubin,creatinine,international normalized ratio,and present proven bacterial infection at admission were associated with the development of ACLF.AD patients with≥2 organ dysfunctions had a higher risk for pre-ACLF patients[odds ratio=16.58195%confidence interval:(4.271-64.363),p<0.001].In the derivation co-hort,67.5%of patients(454/673)had≤1 organ dysfunction and two patients(0.4%)were pre-ACLF,with a miss rate of 4.3%(missed/total,2/46).In the validation cohort,65.9%of patients(914/1388)had≤1 organ dysfunction,and four(0.3%)of them were pre-ACLF,with a miss rate of 3.4%(missed/total,4/117).Conclusions:AD patients with≤1 organ dysfunction had a significantly lower risk of developing ACLF within 28 days of admission and could be safely ruled out with a pre-ACLF miss rate of<5%.
基金supported by the“Microsoft Grant Award:AI for Health COVID-19″The RISC-19-ICU reg-istry is supported by the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine and funded by internal resources of the Institute of Intensive Care Medicine,of the University Hospital Zurich and by unrestricted grants from CytoSorbents Europe GmbH(Berlin,Germany)+1 种基金Union Bancaire Privée(Zurich,Switzerland)The sponsors had no role in the design of the study,the collection and analysis of the data,or the preparation of the manuscript.
文摘Background:Accurate risk stratification of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is essential for optimizing resource allocation,delivering targeted interventions,and maximizing patient survival probability.Machine learning(ML)techniques are attracting increased interest for the development of prediction models as they excel in the analysis of complex signals in data-rich environments such as critical care.Methods:We retrieved data on patients with COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit(ICU)between March and October 2020 from the RIsk Stratification in COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit(RISC-19-ICU)registry.We applied the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm to the data to predict as a binary out-come the increase or decrease in patients’Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score on day 5 after ICU admission.The model was iteratively cross-validated in different subsets of the study cohort.Results:The final study population consisted of 675 patients.The XGBoost model correctly predicted a decrease in SOFA score in 320/385(83%)critically ill COVID-19 patients,and an increase in the score in 210/290(72%)patients.The area under the mean receiver operating characteristic curve for XGBoost was significantly higher than that for the logistic regression model(0.86 vs.0.69,P<0.01[paired t-test with 95%confidence interval]).Conclusions:The XGBoost model predicted the change in SOFA score in critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU and can guide clinical decision support systems(CDSSs)aimed at optimizing available resources.
