Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack ...Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).展开更多
The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst asses...The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.展开更多
A recently published modeling approach for the penetration into adobe and previous approaches implicitly criticized are reviewed and discussed.This article contains a note on the paper titled“Ballistic model for the ...A recently published modeling approach for the penetration into adobe and previous approaches implicitly criticized are reviewed and discussed.This article contains a note on the paper titled“Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe:A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry”(DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dt.2018.07.017).Reply to the Note from Li Piani et al is linked to this article.展开更多
Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of th...Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of the water-based aerosol is always unsatisfactory due to the rapid evaporation and sedimentation of the aerosol droplets.Great efforts have been devoted to improve the stability of water-based aerosol by using additives with different composition and proportion.However,the lack of the criterion and principle for screening the effective additives results in excessive experimental time consumption and cost.And the stabilization time of the aerosol is still only 30 min,which could not meet the requirements of the perdurable interference.Herein,to improve the stability of water-based aerosol and optimize the complex formulation efficiently,a theoretical calculation method based on thermodynamic entropy theory is proposed.All the factors that influence the shielding effect,including polyol,stabilizer,propellant,water and cosolvent,are considered within calculation.An ultra-stable water-based aerosol with long duration over 120 min is obtained with the optimal fogging agent composition,providing enough time for fighting the electro-optic weapon.Theoretical design guideline for choosing the additives with high phase transition temperature and low phase transition enthalpy is also proposed,which greatly improves the total entropy change and reduce the absolute entropy change of the aerosol cooling process,and gives rise to an enhanced stability of the water-based aerosol.The theoretical calculation methodology contributes to an abstemious time and space for sieving the water-based aerosol with desirable performance and stability,and provides the powerful guarantee to the homeland security.展开更多
Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the pre...Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.展开更多
The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown th...The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.展开更多
Predicting students’academic achievements is an essential issue in education,which can benefit many stakeholders,for instance,students,teachers,managers,etc.Compared with online courses such asMOOCs,students’academi...Predicting students’academic achievements is an essential issue in education,which can benefit many stakeholders,for instance,students,teachers,managers,etc.Compared with online courses such asMOOCs,students’academicrelateddata in the face-to-face physical teaching environment is usually sparsity,and the sample size is relativelysmall.It makes building models to predict students’performance accurately in such an environment even morechallenging.This paper proposes a Two-WayNeuralNetwork(TWNN)model based on the bidirectional recurrentneural network and graph neural network to predict students’next semester’s course performance using only theirprevious course achievements.Extensive experiments on a real dataset show that our model performs better thanthe baselines in many indicators.展开更多
Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of ...Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.展开更多
Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a gro...Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a ground threat prediction-based path planning method is proposed based on artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm by collaborative thinking strategy.Firstly,a dynamic threat distribution probability model is developed based on the characteristics of typical ground threats.The dynamic no-fly zone of the UAH is simulated and established by calculating the distribution probability of ground threats in real time.Then,a dynamic path planning method for UAH is designed in complex environment based on the real-time prediction of ground threats.By adding the collision warning mechanism to the path planning model,the flight path could be dynamically adjusted according to changing no-fly zones.Furthermore,a hybrid enhanced ABC algorithm is proposed based on collaborative thinking strategy.The proposed algorithm applies the leader-member thinking mechanism to guide the direction of population evolution,and reduces the negative impact of local optimal solutions caused by collaborative learning update strategy,which makes the optimization performance of ABC algorithm more controllable and efficient.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ground threat prediction path planning method.展开更多
OBJECTIVES To establish a scoring system combining the ACEF score and the quantitative blood flow ratio(QFR) to improve the long-term risk prediction of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI).METH...OBJECTIVES To establish a scoring system combining the ACEF score and the quantitative blood flow ratio(QFR) to improve the long-term risk prediction of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI).METHODS In this population-based cohort study, a total of 46 features, including patient clinical and coronary lesion characteristics, were assessed for analysis through machine learning models. The ACEF-QFR scoring system was developed using 1263consecutive cases of CAD patients after PCI in PANDA Ⅲ trial database. The newly developed score was then validated on the other remaining 542 patients in the cohort.RESULTS In both the Random Forest Model and the Deep Surv Model, age, renal function(creatinine), cardiac function(LVEF)and post-PCI coronary physiological index(QFR) were identified and confirmed to be significant predictive factors for 2-year adverse cardiac events. The ACEF-QFR score was constructed based on the developmental dataset and computed as age(years)/EF(%) + 1(if creatinine ≥ 2.0 mg/d L) + 1(if post-PCI QFR ≤ 0.92). The performance of the ACEF-QFR scoring system was preliminarily evaluated in the developmental dataset, and then further explored in the validation dataset. The ACEF-QFR score showed superior discrimination(C-statistic = 0.651;95% CI: 0.611-0.691, P < 0.05 versus post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores) and excellent calibration(Hosmer–Lemeshow χ^(2)= 7.070;P = 0.529) for predicting 2-year patient-oriented composite endpoint(POCE). The good prognostic value of the ACEF-QFR score was further validated by multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier analysis(adjusted HR = 1.89;95% CI: 1.18–3.04;log-rank P < 0.01) after stratified the patients into high-risk group and low-risk group.CONCLUSIONS An improved scoring system combining clinical and coronary lesion-based functional variables(ACEF-QFR)was developed, and its ability for prognostic prediction in patients with PCI was further validated to be significantly better than the post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores.展开更多
When the mining goaf is close to the cliff,rock slope subsidence induced by underground mining is significantly affected by its boundary conditions.In this study,an analytical method is proposed by considering the key...When the mining goaf is close to the cliff,rock slope subsidence induced by underground mining is significantly affected by its boundary conditions.In this study,an analytical method is proposed by considering the key strata as a semi-infinite Euler-Bernoulli beam rested on a Winkler foundation with a local subsidence area.The analytical solutions of deflection are derived by analyzing the boundary and continuity conditions of the cliff.Then,the analytical solutions are verified by the results from experimental tests,FEM and InSAR,respectively.After that,the influence of changing parameters on deflections is studied with sensitivity analysis.The results show that the distance between goaf and cliff significantly affects the deflection of semi-infinite beam.The response of semi-infinite beam is obviously determined by the length of goaf and the bending stiffness of beam.The comparisons between semi-infinite beam and infinite beam illustrate the ascendancy of the improved model in such problems.展开更多
Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial pertur...Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.展开更多
Human mobility prediction is important for many applications.However,training an accurate mobility prediction model requires a large scale of human trajectories,where privacy issues become an important problem.The ris...Human mobility prediction is important for many applications.However,training an accurate mobility prediction model requires a large scale of human trajectories,where privacy issues become an important problem.The rising federated learning provides us with a promising solution to this problem,which enables mobile devices to collaboratively learn a shared prediction model while keeping all the training data on the device,decoupling the ability to do machine learning from the need to store the data in the cloud.However,existing federated learningbased methods either do not provide privacy guarantees or have vulnerability in terms of privacy leakage.In this paper,we combine the techniques of data perturbation and model perturbation mechanisms and propose a privacy-preserving mobility prediction algorithm,where we add noise to the transmitted model and the raw data collaboratively to protect user privacy and keep the mobility prediction performance.Extensive experimental results show that our proposed method significantly outperforms the existing stateof-the-art mobility prediction method in terms of defensive performance against practical attacks while having comparable mobility prediction performance,demonstrating its effectiveness.展开更多
This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while ...This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.展开更多
Channel prediction is critical to address the channel aging issue in mobile scenarios.Existing channel prediction techniques are mainly designed for discrete channel prediction,which can only predict the future channe...Channel prediction is critical to address the channel aging issue in mobile scenarios.Existing channel prediction techniques are mainly designed for discrete channel prediction,which can only predict the future channel in a fixed time slot per frame,while the other intra-frame channels are usually recovered by interpolation.However,these approaches suffer from a serious interpolation loss,especially for mobile millimeter-wave communications.To solve this challenging problem,we propose a tensor neural ordinary differential equation(TN-ODE)based continuous-time channel prediction scheme to realize the direct prediction of intra-frame channels.Specifically,inspired by the recently developed continuous mapping model named neural ODE in the field of machine learning,we first utilize the neural ODE model to predict future continuous-time channels.To improve the channel prediction accuracy and reduce computational complexity,we then propose the TN-ODE scheme to learn the structural characteristics of the high-dimensional channel by low-dimensional learnable transform.Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve higher intra-frame channel prediction accuracy than existing schemes.展开更多
A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adh...A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.展开更多
Traditional laboratory tests for measuring rock uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)are tedious and timeconsuming.There is a pressing need for more effective methods to determine rock UCS,especially in deep mining envir...Traditional laboratory tests for measuring rock uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)are tedious and timeconsuming.There is a pressing need for more effective methods to determine rock UCS,especially in deep mining environments under high in-situ stress.Thus,this study aims to develop an advanced model for predicting the UCS of rockmaterial in deepmining environments by combining three boosting-basedmachine learning methods with four optimization algorithms.For this purpose,the Lead-Zinc mine in Southwest China is considered as the case study.Rock density,P-wave velocity,and point load strength index are used as input variables,and UCS is regarded as the output.Subsequently,twelve hybrid predictive models are obtained.Root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),coefficient of determination(R2),and the proportion of the mean absolute percentage error less than 20%(A-20)are selected as the evaluation metrics.Experimental results showed that the hybridmodel consisting of the extreme gradient boostingmethod and the artificial bee colony algorithm(XGBoost-ABC)achieved satisfactory results on the training dataset and exhibited the best generalization performance on the testing dataset.The values of R2,A-20,RMSE,and MAE on the training dataset are 0.98,1.0,3.11 MPa,and 2.23MPa,respectively.The highest values of R2 and A-20(0.93 and 0.96),and the smallest RMSE and MAE values of 4.78 MPa and 3.76MPa,are observed on the testing dataset.The proposed hybrid model can be considered a reliable and effective method for predicting rock UCS in deep mines.展开更多
The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was p...The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same g...Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.展开更多
With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can b...With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81825009,82071505,81901358)the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2021-I2MC&T-B-099,2019-I2M-5–006)+2 种基金the Program of Chinese Institute for Brain Research Beijing(2020-NKX-XM-12)the King’s College London-Peking University Health Science Center Joint Institute for Medical Research(BMU2020KCL001,BMU2019LCKXJ012)the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFF1201103,2016YFC1307000).
文摘Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).
文摘The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.
文摘A recently published modeling approach for the penetration into adobe and previous approaches implicitly criticized are reviewed and discussed.This article contains a note on the paper titled“Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe:A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry”(DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dt.2018.07.017).Reply to the Note from Li Piani et al is linked to this article.
基金supported by the Preparation and Characterization of Fogging Agents,Cooperative Project of China(Grant No.1900030040)Preparation and Test of Fogging Agents,Cooperative Project of China(Grant No.2200030085)。
文摘Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of the water-based aerosol is always unsatisfactory due to the rapid evaporation and sedimentation of the aerosol droplets.Great efforts have been devoted to improve the stability of water-based aerosol by using additives with different composition and proportion.However,the lack of the criterion and principle for screening the effective additives results in excessive experimental time consumption and cost.And the stabilization time of the aerosol is still only 30 min,which could not meet the requirements of the perdurable interference.Herein,to improve the stability of water-based aerosol and optimize the complex formulation efficiently,a theoretical calculation method based on thermodynamic entropy theory is proposed.All the factors that influence the shielding effect,including polyol,stabilizer,propellant,water and cosolvent,are considered within calculation.An ultra-stable water-based aerosol with long duration over 120 min is obtained with the optimal fogging agent composition,providing enough time for fighting the electro-optic weapon.Theoretical design guideline for choosing the additives with high phase transition temperature and low phase transition enthalpy is also proposed,which greatly improves the total entropy change and reduce the absolute entropy change of the aerosol cooling process,and gives rise to an enhanced stability of the water-based aerosol.The theoretical calculation methodology contributes to an abstemious time and space for sieving the water-based aerosol with desirable performance and stability,and provides the powerful guarantee to the homeland security.
文摘Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975116)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.Y202025)。
文摘The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.U2268204,62172061 and 61662017National Key R&D Program of China under Grant Nos.2020YFB1711800 and 2020YFB1707900+1 种基金the Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Province under Grant Nos.2022YFG0155,2022YFG0157,2021GFW019,2021YFG0152,2021YFG0025,2020YFG0322the Guangxi Natural Science Foundation Project under Grant No.2021GXNSFAA220074.
文摘Predicting students’academic achievements is an essential issue in education,which can benefit many stakeholders,for instance,students,teachers,managers,etc.Compared with online courses such asMOOCs,students’academicrelateddata in the face-to-face physical teaching environment is usually sparsity,and the sample size is relativelysmall.It makes building models to predict students’performance accurately in such an environment even morechallenging.This paper proposes a Two-WayNeuralNetwork(TWNN)model based on the bidirectional recurrentneural network and graph neural network to predict students’next semester’s course performance using only theirprevious course achievements.Extensive experiments on a real dataset show that our model performs better thanthe baselines in many indicators.
基金supported by Science and Technology Plan Project of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Transportation“Research and System Development of Highway Asset Digitalization Technology inUse Based onHigh-PrecisionMap”(Project Number:202203)in part by Science and Technology Plan Project of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Transportation:Research and Demonstration Application of Key Technologies for Precise Sensing of Expressway Thrown Objects(No.202204).
文摘Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.
文摘Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a ground threat prediction-based path planning method is proposed based on artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm by collaborative thinking strategy.Firstly,a dynamic threat distribution probability model is developed based on the characteristics of typical ground threats.The dynamic no-fly zone of the UAH is simulated and established by calculating the distribution probability of ground threats in real time.Then,a dynamic path planning method for UAH is designed in complex environment based on the real-time prediction of ground threats.By adding the collision warning mechanism to the path planning model,the flight path could be dynamically adjusted according to changing no-fly zones.Furthermore,a hybrid enhanced ABC algorithm is proposed based on collaborative thinking strategy.The proposed algorithm applies the leader-member thinking mechanism to guide the direction of population evolution,and reduces the negative impact of local optimal solutions caused by collaborative learning update strategy,which makes the optimization performance of ABC algorithm more controllable and efficient.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ground threat prediction path planning method.
基金sponsored by Sino Medical,Tianjin,Chinasupported by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project[Z191100006619107 to B.X.]Capital Health Development Research Project[20201–4032 to K.D.].
文摘OBJECTIVES To establish a scoring system combining the ACEF score and the quantitative blood flow ratio(QFR) to improve the long-term risk prediction of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI).METHODS In this population-based cohort study, a total of 46 features, including patient clinical and coronary lesion characteristics, were assessed for analysis through machine learning models. The ACEF-QFR scoring system was developed using 1263consecutive cases of CAD patients after PCI in PANDA Ⅲ trial database. The newly developed score was then validated on the other remaining 542 patients in the cohort.RESULTS In both the Random Forest Model and the Deep Surv Model, age, renal function(creatinine), cardiac function(LVEF)and post-PCI coronary physiological index(QFR) were identified and confirmed to be significant predictive factors for 2-year adverse cardiac events. The ACEF-QFR score was constructed based on the developmental dataset and computed as age(years)/EF(%) + 1(if creatinine ≥ 2.0 mg/d L) + 1(if post-PCI QFR ≤ 0.92). The performance of the ACEF-QFR scoring system was preliminarily evaluated in the developmental dataset, and then further explored in the validation dataset. The ACEF-QFR score showed superior discrimination(C-statistic = 0.651;95% CI: 0.611-0.691, P < 0.05 versus post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores) and excellent calibration(Hosmer–Lemeshow χ^(2)= 7.070;P = 0.529) for predicting 2-year patient-oriented composite endpoint(POCE). The good prognostic value of the ACEF-QFR score was further validated by multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier analysis(adjusted HR = 1.89;95% CI: 1.18–3.04;log-rank P < 0.01) after stratified the patients into high-risk group and low-risk group.CONCLUSIONS An improved scoring system combining clinical and coronary lesion-based functional variables(ACEF-QFR)was developed, and its ability for prognostic prediction in patients with PCI was further validated to be significantly better than the post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52074042)National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC1504802).
文摘When the mining goaf is close to the cliff,rock slope subsidence induced by underground mining is significantly affected by its boundary conditions.In this study,an analytical method is proposed by considering the key strata as a semi-infinite Euler-Bernoulli beam rested on a Winkler foundation with a local subsidence area.The analytical solutions of deflection are derived by analyzing the boundary and continuity conditions of the cliff.Then,the analytical solutions are verified by the results from experimental tests,FEM and InSAR,respectively.After that,the influence of changing parameters on deflections is studied with sensitivity analysis.The results show that the distance between goaf and cliff significantly affects the deflection of semi-infinite beam.The response of semi-infinite beam is obviously determined by the length of goaf and the bending stiffness of beam.The comparisons between semi-infinite beam and infinite beam illustrate the ascendancy of the improved model in such problems.
基金supported by the Joint Funds of the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC)(Grant No.U2242213)the National Key Research and Development (R&D)Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No. 2021YFC3000902)the National Science Foundation for Young Scholars (Grant No. 42205166)。
文摘Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under 2020AAA0106000the National Natural Science Foundation of China under U20B2060 and U21B2036supported by a grant from the Guoqiang Institute, Tsinghua University under 2021GQG1005
文摘Human mobility prediction is important for many applications.However,training an accurate mobility prediction model requires a large scale of human trajectories,where privacy issues become an important problem.The rising federated learning provides us with a promising solution to this problem,which enables mobile devices to collaboratively learn a shared prediction model while keeping all the training data on the device,decoupling the ability to do machine learning from the need to store the data in the cloud.However,existing federated learningbased methods either do not provide privacy guarantees or have vulnerability in terms of privacy leakage.In this paper,we combine the techniques of data perturbation and model perturbation mechanisms and propose a privacy-preserving mobility prediction algorithm,where we add noise to the transmitted model and the raw data collaboratively to protect user privacy and keep the mobility prediction performance.Extensive experimental results show that our proposed method significantly outperforms the existing stateof-the-art mobility prediction method in terms of defensive performance against practical attacks while having comparable mobility prediction performance,demonstrating its effectiveness.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB3701705).
文摘This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFB1805005)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62031019)in part by the European Commission through the H2020-MSCA-ITN META WIRELESS Research Project under Grant 956256。
文摘Channel prediction is critical to address the channel aging issue in mobile scenarios.Existing channel prediction techniques are mainly designed for discrete channel prediction,which can only predict the future channel in a fixed time slot per frame,while the other intra-frame channels are usually recovered by interpolation.However,these approaches suffer from a serious interpolation loss,especially for mobile millimeter-wave communications.To solve this challenging problem,we propose a tensor neural ordinary differential equation(TN-ODE)based continuous-time channel prediction scheme to realize the direct prediction of intra-frame channels.Specifically,inspired by the recently developed continuous mapping model named neural ODE in the field of machine learning,we first utilize the neural ODE model to predict future continuous-time channels.To improve the channel prediction accuracy and reduce computational complexity,we then propose the TN-ODE scheme to learn the structural characteristics of the high-dimensional channel by low-dimensional learnable transform.Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve higher intra-frame channel prediction accuracy than existing schemes.
基金the High-Performance Computing Platform of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(BUCT)for supporting this papersupported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JD2319)+2 种基金the CNOOC Technical Cooperation Project(ZX2022ZCTYF7612)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775029,52004014)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(XK2020-04)。
文摘A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52374153).
文摘Traditional laboratory tests for measuring rock uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)are tedious and timeconsuming.There is a pressing need for more effective methods to determine rock UCS,especially in deep mining environments under high in-situ stress.Thus,this study aims to develop an advanced model for predicting the UCS of rockmaterial in deepmining environments by combining three boosting-basedmachine learning methods with four optimization algorithms.For this purpose,the Lead-Zinc mine in Southwest China is considered as the case study.Rock density,P-wave velocity,and point load strength index are used as input variables,and UCS is regarded as the output.Subsequently,twelve hybrid predictive models are obtained.Root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),coefficient of determination(R2),and the proportion of the mean absolute percentage error less than 20%(A-20)are selected as the evaluation metrics.Experimental results showed that the hybridmodel consisting of the extreme gradient boostingmethod and the artificial bee colony algorithm(XGBoost-ABC)achieved satisfactory results on the training dataset and exhibited the best generalization performance on the testing dataset.The values of R2,A-20,RMSE,and MAE on the training dataset are 0.98,1.0,3.11 MPa,and 2.23MPa,respectively.The highest values of R2 and A-20(0.93 and 0.96),and the smallest RMSE and MAE values of 4.78 MPa and 3.76MPa,are observed on the testing dataset.The proposed hybrid model can be considered a reliable and effective method for predicting rock UCS in deep mines.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFB3706800,2020YFB1710100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51821001,52090042,52074183)。
文摘The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.
基金funded by the Fujian Province Science and Technology Plan,China(Grant Number 2019H0017).
文摘Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.
基金This work was supported by the Beijing Nova Program[Z211100002121136]Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution[SKL-K202103]+1 种基金Joint Funds of National Natural Science Foundation of China[U19B6003-02]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[42302149].We would like to thank Prof.Zhu Rixiang from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.
