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A partial least-squares regression approach to land use studies in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Yang ZHOU Chenghu ZHANG Yongmin 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2007年第2期234-244,共11页
In several LUCC studies, statistical methods are being used to analyze land use data. A problem using conventional statistical methods in land use analysis is that these methods assume the data to be statistically ind... In several LUCC studies, statistical methods are being used to analyze land use data. A problem using conventional statistical methods in land use analysis is that these methods assume the data to be statistically independent. But in fact, they have the tendency to be dependent, a phenomenon known as multicollinearity, especially in the cases of few observations. In this paper, a Partial Least-Squares (PLS) regression approach is developed to study relationships between land use and its influencing factors through a case study of the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region in China. Multicollinearity exists in the dataset and the number of variables is high compared to the number of observations. Four PLS factors are selected through a preliminary analysis. The correlation analyses between land use and in- fluencing factors demonstrate the land use character of rural industrialization and urbaniza- tion in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region, meanwhile illustrate that the first PLS factor has enough ability to best describe land use patterns quantitatively, and most of the statistical relations derived from it accord with the fact. By the decreasing capacity of the PLS factors, the reliability of model outcome decreases correspondingly. 展开更多
关键词 江苏 苏州-无锡-常州地区 土地利用研究 多变量数据分析 最小二乘偏回归法
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Based on Partial Least-squares Regression to Build up and Analyze the Model of Rice Evapotranspiration
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作者 ZHAO Chang shan,FU Hong,HUANG Bu hai (Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,Heilongjiang,150030,PRC) 《Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(English Edition)》 CAS 2003年第1期1-8,共8页
During the course of calculating the rice evapotranspiration using weather factors,we often find that some independent variables have multiple correlation.The phenomena can lead to the traditional multivariate regress... During the course of calculating the rice evapotranspiration using weather factors,we often find that some independent variables have multiple correlation.The phenomena can lead to the traditional multivariate regression model which based on least square method distortion.And the stability of the model will be lost.The model will be built based on partial least square regression in the paper,through applying the idea of main component analyze and typical correlation analyze,the writer picks up some component from original material.Thus,the writer builds up the model of rice evapotranspiration to solve the multiple correlation among the independent variables (some weather factors).At last,the writer analyses the model in some parts,and gains the satisfied result. 展开更多
关键词 水稻 土壤水分蒸发蒸腾损失总量 气候因子 数学模型 最小二乘法 回归方程
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Smart Healthcare Activity Recognition Using Statistical Regression and Intelligent Learning
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作者 K.Akilandeswari Nithya Rekha Sivakumar +2 位作者 Hend Khalid Alkahtani Shakila Basheer Sara Abdelwahab Ghorashi 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第1期1189-1205,共17页
In this present time,Human Activity Recognition(HAR)has been of considerable aid in the case of health monitoring and recovery.The exploitation of machine learning with an intelligent agent in the area of health infor... In this present time,Human Activity Recognition(HAR)has been of considerable aid in the case of health monitoring and recovery.The exploitation of machine learning with an intelligent agent in the area of health informatics gathered using HAR augments the decision-making quality and significance.Although many research works conducted on Smart Healthcare Monitoring,there remain a certain number of pitfalls such as time,overhead,and falsification involved during analysis.Therefore,this paper proposes a Statistical Partial Regression and Support Vector Intelligent Agent Learning(SPR-SVIAL)for Smart Healthcare Monitoring.At first,the Statistical Partial Regression Feature Extraction model is used for data preprocessing along with the dimensionality-reduced features extraction process.Here,the input dataset the continuous beat-to-beat heart data,triaxial accelerometer data,and psychological characteristics were acquired from IoT wearable devices.To attain highly accurate Smart Healthcare Monitoring with less time,Partial Least Square helps extract the dimensionality-reduced features.After that,with these resulting features,SVIAL is proposed for Smart Healthcare Monitoring with the help of Machine Learning and Intelligent Agents to minimize both analysis falsification and overhead.Experimental evaluation is carried out for factors such as time,overhead,and false positive rate accuracy concerning several instances.The quantitatively analyzed results indicate the better performance of our proposed SPR-SVIAL method when compared with two state-of-the-art methods. 展开更多
关键词 Internet of Things smart health care monitoring human activity recognition intelligent agent learning statistical partial regression support vector
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Partial Time-Varying Coefficient Regression and Autoregressive Mixed Model
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作者 Hui Li Zhiqiang Cao 《Open Journal of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases》 2023年第4期514-533,共20页
Regression and autoregressive mixed models are classical models used to analyze the relationship between time series response variable and other covariates. The coefficients in traditional regression and autoregressiv... Regression and autoregressive mixed models are classical models used to analyze the relationship between time series response variable and other covariates. The coefficients in traditional regression and autoregressive mixed models are constants. However, for complicated data, the coefficients of covariates may change with time. In this article, we propose a kind of partial time-varying coefficient regression and autoregressive mixed model and obtain the local weighted least-square estimators of coefficient functions by the local polynomial technique. The asymptotic normality properties of estimators are derived under regularity conditions, and simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators. Finally, we use real data about Lake Shasta inflow to illustrate the application of the proposed model. 展开更多
关键词 regression and Autoregressive Time Series partial Time-Varying Coefficient Local Polynomial
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Partial Time-Varying Coefficient Regression and Autoregressive Mixed Model
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作者 Hui Li Zhiqiang Cao 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2023年第4期514-533,共20页
Regression and autoregressive mixed models are classical models used to analyze the relationship between time series response variable and other covariates. The coefficients in traditional regression and autoregressiv... Regression and autoregressive mixed models are classical models used to analyze the relationship between time series response variable and other covariates. The coefficients in traditional regression and autoregressive mixed models are constants. However, for complicated data, the coefficients of covariates may change with time. In this article, we propose a kind of partial time-varying coefficient regression and autoregressive mixed model and obtain the local weighted least-square estimators of coefficient functions by the local polynomial technique. The asymptotic normality properties of estimators are derived under regularity conditions, and simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators. Finally, we use real data about Lake Shasta inflow to illustrate the application of the proposed model. 展开更多
关键词 regression and Autoregressive Time Series partial Time-Varying Coefficient Local Polynomial
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Characterizing and estimating rice brown spot disease severity using stepwise regression,principal component regression and partial least-square regression 被引量:13
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作者 LIU Zhan-yu1, HUANG Jing-feng1, SHI Jing-jing1, TAO Rong-xiang2, ZHOU Wan3, ZHANG Li-li3 (1Institute of Agriculture Remote Sensing and Information System Application, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China) (2Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China) (3Plant Inspection Station of Hangzhou City, Hangzhou 310020, China) 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science B(Biomedicine & Biotechnology)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2007年第10期738-744,共7页
Detecting plant health conditions plays a key role in farm pest management and crop protection. In this study, measurement of hyperspectral leaf reflectance in rice crop (Oryzasativa L.) was conducted on groups of hea... Detecting plant health conditions plays a key role in farm pest management and crop protection. In this study, measurement of hyperspectral leaf reflectance in rice crop (Oryzasativa L.) was conducted on groups of healthy and infected leaves by the fungus Bipolaris oryzae (Helminthosporium oryzae Breda. de Hann) through the wavelength range from 350 to 2 500 nm. The percentage of leaf surface lesions was estimated and defined as the disease severity. Statistical methods like multiple stepwise regression, principal component analysis and partial least-square regression were utilized to calculate and estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot at the leaf level. Our results revealed that multiple stepwise linear regressions could efficiently estimate disease severity with three wavebands in seven steps. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) for training (n=210) and testing (n=53) dataset were 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Principal component analysis showed that the first principal component could explain approximately 80% of the variance of the original hyperspectral reflectance. The regression model with the first two principal components predicted a disease severity with RMSEs of 16.3% and 13.9% for the training and testing dataset, respec-tively. Partial least-square regression with seven extracted factors could most effectively predict disease severity compared with other statistical methods with RMSEs of 4.1% and 2.0% for the training and testing dataset, respectively. Our research demon-strates that it is feasible to estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot using hyperspectral reflectance data at the leaf level. 展开更多
关键词 HYPERSPECTRAL reflectance Rice BROWN SPOT partial least-square (PLS) regression STEPWISE regression Principal component regression (PCR)
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Double-Penalized Quantile Regression in Partially Linear Models 被引量:1
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作者 Yunlu Jiang 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2015年第2期158-164,共7页
In this paper, we propose the double-penalized quantile regression estimators in partially linear models. An iterative algorithm is proposed for solving the proposed optimization problem. Some numerical examples illus... In this paper, we propose the double-penalized quantile regression estimators in partially linear models. An iterative algorithm is proposed for solving the proposed optimization problem. Some numerical examples illustrate that the finite sample performances of proposed method perform better than the least squares based method with regard to the non-causal selection rate (NSR) and the median of model error (MME) when the error distribution is heavy-tail. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to analyze the ragweed pollen level dataset. 展开更多
关键词 QUANTILE regression partialLY LINEAR MODEL Heavy-Tailed DISTRIBUTION
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Estimating Wheat Grain Protein Content Using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Data Based on Partial Least Squares Regression 被引量:4
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作者 LI Cun-jun WANG Ji-hua +4 位作者 WANG Qian WANG Da-cheng SONG Xiao-yu WANG Yan HUANGWen-jiang 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第9期1445-1452,共8页
Estimating wheat grain protein content by remote sensing is important for assessing wheat quality at maturity and making grains harvest and purchase policies. However, spatial variability of soil condition, temperatur... Estimating wheat grain protein content by remote sensing is important for assessing wheat quality at maturity and making grains harvest and purchase policies. However, spatial variability of soil condition, temperature, and precipitation will affect grain protein contents and these factors usually cannot be monitored accurately by remote sensing data from single image. In this research, the relationships between wheat protein content at maturity and wheat agronomic parameters at different growing stages were analyzed and multi-temporal images of Landsat TM were used to estimate grain protein content by partial least squares regression. Experiment data were acquired in the suburb of Beijing during a 2-yr experiment in the period from 2003 to 2004. Determination coefficient, average deviation of self-modeling, and deviation of cross- validation were employed to assess the estimation accuracy of wheat grain protein content. Their values were 0.88, 1.30%, 3.81% and 0.72, 5.22%, 12.36% for 2003 and 2004, respectively. The research laid an agronomic foundation for GPC (grain protein content) estimation by multi-temporal remote sensing. The results showed that it is feasible to estimate GPC of wheat from multi-temporal remote sensing data in large area. 展开更多
关键词 籽粒蛋白质含量 偏最小二乘回归 遥感数据 回归估计 多时相 小麦 LANDSAT 质量评估
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Discrimination of Transgenic Rice Based on Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy and Partial Least Squares Regression Discriminant Analysis 被引量:6
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作者 ZHANG Long WANG Shan-shan +2 位作者 DING Yan-fei PAN Jia-rong ZHU Cheng 《Rice science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第5期245-249,共5页
Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy(NIRS), a non-destructive measurement technique, was combined with partial least squares regression discrimiant analysis(PLS-DA) to discriminate the transgenic(TCTP and mi166) and... Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy(NIRS), a non-destructive measurement technique, was combined with partial least squares regression discrimiant analysis(PLS-DA) to discriminate the transgenic(TCTP and mi166) and wild type(Zhonghua 11) rice. Furthermore, rice lines transformed with protein gene(Os TCTP) and regulation gene(Osmi166) were also discriminated by the NIRS method. The performances of PLS-DA in spectral ranges of 4 000–8 000 cm-1 and 4 000–10 000 cm-1 were compared to obtain the optimal spectral range. As a result, the transgenic and wild type rice were distinguished from each other in the range of 4 000–10 000 cm-1, and the correct classification rate was 100.0% in the validation test. The transgenic rice TCTP and mi166 were also distinguished from each other in the range of 4 000–10 000 cm-1, and the correct classification rate was also 100.0%. In conclusion, NIRS combined with PLS-DA can be used for the discrimination of transgenic rice. 展开更多
关键词 偏最小二乘回归 近红外反射光谱 转基因水稻 线性判别分析 近红外光谱技术 近红外光谱法 光谱范围 NIRS
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Partial least squares regression for predicting economic loss of vegetables caused by acid rain 被引量:2
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作者 王菊 房春生 《Journal of Chongqing University》 CAS 2009年第1期10-16,共7页
To predict the economic loss of crops caused by acid rain,we used partial least squares(PLS) regression to build a model of single dependent variable -the economic loss calculated with the decrease in yield related to... To predict the economic loss of crops caused by acid rain,we used partial least squares(PLS) regression to build a model of single dependent variable -the economic loss calculated with the decrease in yield related to the pH value and levels of Ca2+,NH4+,Na+,K+,Mg2+,SO42-,NO3-,and Cl-in acid rain. We selected vegetables which were sensitive to acid rain as the sample crops,and collected 12 groups of data,of which 8 groups were used for modeling and 4 groups for testing. Using the cross validation method to evaluate the performace of this prediction model indicates that the optimum number of principal components was 3,determined by the minimum of prediction residual error sum of squares,and the prediction error of the regression equation ranges from -2.25% to 4.32%. The model predicted that the economic loss of vegetables from acid rain is negatively corrrelated to pH and the concentrations of NH4+,SO42-,NO3-,and Cl-in the rain,and positively correlated to the concentrations of Ca2+,Na+,K+ and Mg2+. The precision of the model may be improved if the non-linearity of original data is addressed. 展开更多
关键词 经济损失计算 偏最小二乘 回归预测 酸雨 蔬菜 回归模型 残差平方和 硫酸铵
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Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Three Components Including Deoxyschizandrin by Partial Least Squares Regression 被引量:1
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作者 张立庆 《Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science)》 SCIE EI CAS 2005年第3期119-121,共3页
关键词 分光谱测量法 衰退分析 计算机辅助分析 吸收光谱
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PARAMETRIC TEST IN PARTIAL LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
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作者 高集体 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 1995年第S1期1-10,共10页
PARAMETRIC TEST IN PARTIAL LINEAR REGRESSION MODELSGaoJiti(高集体)(UniversityofScience&TechnologyofChina,Anhui2... PARAMETRIC TEST IN PARTIAL LINEAR REGRESSION MODELSGaoJiti(高集体)(UniversityofScience&TechnologyofChina,Anhui230026China)Abstra... 展开更多
关键词 partial LINEAR model PARAMETRIC TEST Asmpptotic NORMALITY Nonperametric regression technique.
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Partial Least Squares Regression Model to Predict Water Quality in Urban Water Distribution Systems 被引量:1
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作者 骆碧君 赵元 +1 位作者 陈凯 赵新华 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2009年第2期140-144,共5页
The water distribution system of one residential district in Tianjin is taken as an example to analyze the changes of water quality.Partial least squares(PLS) regression model,in which the turbidity and Fe are regarde... The water distribution system of one residential district in Tianjin is taken as an example to analyze the changes of water quality.Partial least squares(PLS) regression model,in which the turbidity and Fe are regarded as control objectives,is used to establish the statistical model.The experimental results indicate that the PLS regression model has good predicted results of water quality compared with the monitored data.The percentages of absolute relative error(below 15%,20%,30%) are 44.4%,66.7%,100%(turbidity) and 33.3%,44.4%,77.8%(Fe) on the 4th sampling point;77.8%,88.9%,88.9%(turbidity) and 44.4%,55.6%,66.7%(Fe) on the 5th sampling point. 展开更多
关键词 偏最小二乘回归 水质变化 模型预测 城市供水系统 回归模型 水分配系统 住宅小区 控制目标
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Comparison of dimension reduction-based logistic regression models for case-control genome-wide association study:principal components analysis vs.partial least squares 被引量:2
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作者 Honggang Yi Hongmei Wo +9 位作者 Yang Zhao Ruyang Zhang Junchen Dai Guangfu Jin Hongxia Ma Tangchun Wu Zhibin Hu Dongxin Lin Hongbing Shen Feng Chen 《The Journal of Biomedical Research》 CAS CSCD 2015年第4期298-307,共10页
With recent advances in biotechnology, genome-wide association study(GWAS) has been widely used to identify genetic variants that underlie human complex diseases and traits. In case-control GWAS, typical statistical s... With recent advances in biotechnology, genome-wide association study(GWAS) has been widely used to identify genetic variants that underlie human complex diseases and traits. In case-control GWAS, typical statistical strategy is traditional logistical regression(LR) based on single-locus analysis. However, such a single-locus analysis leads to the well-known multiplicity problem, with a risk of inflating type I error and reducing power. Dimension reduction-based techniques, such as principal component-based logistic regression(PC-LR), partial least squares-based logistic regression(PLS-LR), have recently gained much attention in the analysis of high dimensional genomic data. However, the perfor?mance of these methods is still not clear, especially in GWAS. We conducted simulations and real data application to compare the type I error and power of PC-LR, PLS-LR and LR applicable to GWAS within a defined single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) set region. We found that PC-LR and PLS can reasonably control type I error under null hypothesis.On contrast, LR, which is corrected by Bonferroni method, was more conserved in all simulation settings. In particular, we found that PC-LR and PLS-LR had comparable power and they both outperformed LR, especially when the causal SNP was in high linkage disequilibrium with genotyped ones and with a small effective size in simulation. Based on SNP set analysis, we applied all three methods to analyze non-small cell lung cancer GWAS data. 展开更多
关键词 偏最小二乘回归 全基因组 主成分分析 降维技术 LOGISTIC回归 回归模型 关联 单核苷酸多态性
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Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Ag^+ and Cu^2+ by Partial Least Square Regression 被引量:1
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作者 Azimi Salameh Rofouei Mohammad Kazem M. Sharifkhani Samira 《材料科学与工程(中英文B版)》 2011年第7期895-900,共6页
关键词 分光光度法 银(I) 同时测定 偏最小二乘回归 Cu 化学计量学 预测误差 制备方法
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Quantum partial least squares regression algorithm for multiple correlation problem
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作者 侯艳艳 李剑 +1 位作者 陈秀波 田源 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第3期177-186,共10页
Partial least squares(PLS) regression is an important linear regression method that efficiently addresses the multiple correlation problem by combining principal component analysis and multiple regression. In this pap... Partial least squares(PLS) regression is an important linear regression method that efficiently addresses the multiple correlation problem by combining principal component analysis and multiple regression. In this paper, we present a quantum partial least squares(QPLS) regression algorithm. To solve the high time complexity of the PLS regression, we design a quantum eigenvector search method to speed up principal components and regression parameters construction. Meanwhile, we give a density matrix product method to avoid multiple access to quantum random access memory(QRAM)during building residual matrices. The time and space complexities of the QPLS regression are logarithmic in the independent variable dimension n, the dependent variable dimension w, and the number of variables m. This algorithm achieves exponential speed-ups over the PLS regression on n, m, and w. In addition, the QPLS regression inspires us to explore more potential quantum machine learning applications in future works. 展开更多
关键词 quantum machine learning partial least squares regression eigenvalue decomposition
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A Novel Extension of Kernel Partial Least Squares Regression
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作者 贾金明 仲伟俊 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2009年第4期438-442,共5页
Based on continuum power regression(CPR) method, a novel derivation of kernel partial least squares(named CPR-KPLS) regression is proposed for approximating arbitrary nonlinear functions.Kernel function is used to map... Based on continuum power regression(CPR) method, a novel derivation of kernel partial least squares(named CPR-KPLS) regression is proposed for approximating arbitrary nonlinear functions.Kernel function is used to map the input variables(input space) into a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space(so called feature space),where a linear CPR-PLS is constructed based on the projection of explanatory variables to latent variables(components). The linear CPR-PLS in the high-dimensional feature space corresponds to a nonlinear CPR-KPLS in the original input space. This method offers a novel extension for kernel partial least squares regression(KPLS),and some numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 偏最小二乘回归 小说 高维特征空间 再生核希尔伯特空间 非线性函数 线性最小二乘法 心肺复苏 输入变量
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Boosting the partial least square algorithm for regression modelling
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作者 Ling YU Tiejun WU 《控制理论与应用(英文版)》 EI 2006年第3期257-260,共4页
增加的算法是过去常改进回归分析的一般性能的一般方法的一个类。主要想法是在火车集合上维持分布。以便直接使用给定的分发,一请修改了算法被建议并且用作基础学习者处理非线性多变量回归问题。Experimentson 汽油辛烷数字预言表明那... 增加的算法是过去常改进回归分析的一般性能的一般方法的一个类。主要想法是在火车集合上维持分布。以便直接使用给定的分发,一请修改了算法被建议并且用作基础学习者处理非线性多变量回归问题。Experimentson 汽油辛烷数字预言表明那增加请修改了算法在 PLS 算法上有更好一般的性能。 展开更多
关键词 增压算法 局部最小平方 PLS 回归模型 多变量回归
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Statistical analysis of nitrogen use efficiency in Northeast China using multiple linear regression and Random Forest 被引量:1
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作者 LIU Ying-xia Gerard B.M.HEUVELINK +4 位作者 Zhanguo BAI HE Ping JIANG Rong HUANG Shaohui XU Xin-peng 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第12期3637-3657,共21页
Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of crop nitrogen(N)use efficiency(NUE)and the relationship with explanatory environmental variables can support land-use management and policymaking.Nevertheless,the applica... Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of crop nitrogen(N)use efficiency(NUE)and the relationship with explanatory environmental variables can support land-use management and policymaking.Nevertheless,the application of statistical models for evaluating the explanatory variables of space-time variation in crop NUE is still under-researched.In this study,stepwise multiple linear regression(SMLR)and Random Forest(RF)were used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of NUE indicators(i.e.,partial factor productivity of N(PFPN);partial nutrient balance of N(PNBN))at county scale in Northeast China(Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Jilin provinces)from 1990 to 2015.Explanatory variables included agricultural management practices,topography,climate,economy,soil and crop types.Results revealed that the PFPN was higher in the northern parts and lower in the center of the Northeast China and PNBN increased from southern to northern parts during the 1990–2015 period.The NUE indicators decreased with time in most counties during the study period.The model efficiency coefficients of the SMLR and RF models were 0.44 and 0.84 for PFPN,and 0.67 and 0.89 for PNBN,respectively.The RF model had higher relative importance of soil and climatic covariates and lower relative importance of crop covariates compared to the SMLR model.The planting area index of vegetables and beans,soil clay content,saturated water content,enhanced vegetation index in November&December,soil bulk density,and annual minimum temperature were the main explanatory variables for both NUE indicators.This is the first study to show the quantitative relative importance of explanatory variables for NUE at a county level in Northeast China using RF and SMLR.This novel study gives reference measurements to improve crop NUE which is one of the most effective means of managing N for sustainable development,ensuring food security,alleviating environmental degradation and increasing farmer’s profitability. 展开更多
关键词 partial factor productivity of N partial nutrient balance of N stepwise multiple linear regression Random Forest county scale Northeast China
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Application of Principal Component Regression with Dummy Variable in Statistical Downscaling to Forecast Rainfall
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作者 Sitti Sahriman Anik Djuraidah Aji Hamim Wigena 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2014年第9期678-686,共9页
Statistical downscaling (SD) analyzes relationship between local-scale response and global-scale predictors. The SD model can be used to forecast rainfall (local-scale) using global-scale precipitation from global cir... Statistical downscaling (SD) analyzes relationship between local-scale response and global-scale predictors. The SD model can be used to forecast rainfall (local-scale) using global-scale precipitation from global circulation model output (GCM). The objectives of this research were to determine the time lag of GCM data and build SD model using PCR method with time lag of the GCM precipitation data. The observations of rainfall data in Indramayu were taken from 1979 to 2007 showing similar patterns with GCM data on 1st grid to 64th grid after time shift (time lag). The time lag was determined using the cross-correlation function. However, GCM data of 64 grids showed multicollinearity problem. This problem was solved by principal component regression (PCR), but the PCR model resulted heterogeneous errors. PCR model was modified to overcome the errors with adding dummy variables to the model. Dummy variables were determined based on partial least squares regression (PLSR). The PCR model with dummy variables improved the rainfall prediction. The SD model with lag-GCM predictors was also better than SD model without lag-GCM. 展开更多
关键词 Cross Correlation Function Global CIRCULATION Model partial Least SQUARE regression Principal Component regression STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
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