This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system fo...This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system for the Eastern Alps.The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples,and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach,based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.展开更多
The heaviest rainfall over 61 yr hit Beijing during 21-22 July 2012.Characterized by great rainfall amount and intensity,wide range,and high impact,this record-breaking heavy rainfall caused dozens of deaths and exten...The heaviest rainfall over 61 yr hit Beijing during 21-22 July 2012.Characterized by great rainfall amount and intensity,wide range,and high impact,this record-breaking heavy rainfall caused dozens of deaths and extensive damage.Despite favorable synoptic conditions,operational forecasts underestimated the precipitation amount and were late at predicting the rainfall start time.To gain a better understanding of the performance of mesoscale models,verification of high-resolution forecasts and analyses from the WRFbased BJ-RUCv2.0 model with a horizontal grid spacing of 3 km is carried out.The results show that water vapor is very rich and a quasi-linear precipitation system produces a rather concentrated rain area.Moreover,model forecasts are first verified statistically using equitable threat score and BIAS score.The BJ-RUCv2.0forecasts under-predict the rainfall with southwestward displacement error and time delay of the extreme precipitation.Further quantitative analysis based on the contiguous rain area method indicates that major errors for total precipitation（〉 5 mm h^（-1）） are due to inaccurate precipitation location and pattern,while forecast errors for heavy rainfall（〉 20 mm h^（-1）） mainly come from precipitation intensity.Finally,the possible causes for the poor model performance are discussed through diagnosing large-scale circulation and physical parameters（water vapor flux and instability conditions） of the BJ-RUCv2.0 model output.展开更多
Super-parameterization（SP） aims to explicitly represent deep convection within a coarse resolution global model by embedding a cloud resolving model（CRM） in each column of the mother model. For the first time, we ...Super-parameterization（SP） aims to explicitly represent deep convection within a coarse resolution global model by embedding a cloud resolving model（CRM） in each column of the mother model. For the first time, we implemented the SP in a mesoscale regional weather model, the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES）. The constructed SP-GRAPES uses a two-dimensional（2D） CRM in each grid column. A control and two SP simulations are conducted for the Beijing ＂7.21＂ heavy rainfall event to evaluate improvements in GRAPES using SP. The SP-run-I is a basic SP run delivering microphysics feedback only, whereas the SP-run-II delivers both microphysical and cloud fraction feedbacks. A comparison of the runs indicates that the SP-run-I has a slightly positive impact on the precipitation forecast than the control run. However, the inclusion of cloud fraction feedback leads to an evident overall improvement, particularly in terms of cloud fraction and 24-h cumulative precipitation. Although this is only a preliminary study using SP-GRAPES, we believe that it will provide considerable guidance for follow-up studies using SP in China.展开更多
基金supported by Beijing Science & Technology Commission (Grant No. Z151100002115012)
文摘This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system for the Eastern Alps.The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples,and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach,based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430106)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201206005)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175087)National Fund for Fostering Talents(J1103410)
文摘The heaviest rainfall over 61 yr hit Beijing during 21-22 July 2012.Characterized by great rainfall amount and intensity,wide range,and high impact,this record-breaking heavy rainfall caused dozens of deaths and extensive damage.Despite favorable synoptic conditions,operational forecasts underestimated the precipitation amount and were late at predicting the rainfall start time.To gain a better understanding of the performance of mesoscale models,verification of high-resolution forecasts and analyses from the WRFbased BJ-RUCv2.0 model with a horizontal grid spacing of 3 km is carried out.The results show that water vapor is very rich and a quasi-linear precipitation system produces a rather concentrated rain area.Moreover,model forecasts are first verified statistically using equitable threat score and BIAS score.The BJ-RUCv2.0forecasts under-predict the rainfall with southwestward displacement error and time delay of the extreme precipitation.Further quantitative analysis based on the contiguous rain area method indicates that major errors for total precipitation（〉 5 mm h^（-1）） are due to inaccurate precipitation location and pattern,while forecast errors for heavy rainfall（〉 20 mm h^（-1）） mainly come from precipitation intensity.Finally,the possible causes for the poor model performance are discussed through diagnosing large-scale circulation and physical parameters（water vapor flux and instability conditions） of the BJ-RUCv2.0 model output.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275104)National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430106)National Science and Technology Support Program of China(2012BAC22B02)
文摘Super-parameterization（SP） aims to explicitly represent deep convection within a coarse resolution global model by embedding a cloud resolving model（CRM） in each column of the mother model. For the first time, we implemented the SP in a mesoscale regional weather model, the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES）. The constructed SP-GRAPES uses a two-dimensional（2D） CRM in each grid column. A control and two SP simulations are conducted for the Beijing ＂7.21＂ heavy rainfall event to evaluate improvements in GRAPES using SP. The SP-run-I is a basic SP run delivering microphysics feedback only, whereas the SP-run-II delivers both microphysical and cloud fraction feedbacks. A comparison of the runs indicates that the SP-run-I has a slightly positive impact on the precipitation forecast than the control run. However, the inclusion of cloud fraction feedback leads to an evident overall improvement, particularly in terms of cloud fraction and 24-h cumulative precipitation. Although this is only a preliminary study using SP-GRAPES, we believe that it will provide considerable guidance for follow-up studies using SP in China.
