We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stoc...We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stochastic factors is considered by adding a diffusion process. The integro-differential equation for the ruin probability is derived by a infinitesimal method. Key words ruin probability - variable premium rate - diffusion process - Markov intensity CLC number O 211.9 Foundation item: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10071058, 70273029)展开更多
First,using the law of large numbers,I analyze the setting principle of agricultural insurance premium rate,and take the case of setting of adult sow premium rate for study,to draw the conclusion that with the continu...First,using the law of large numbers,I analyze the setting principle of agricultural insurance premium rate,and take the case of setting of adult sow premium rate for study,to draw the conclusion that with the continuous promotion of agricultural insurance,increase in the types of agricultural insurance and increase in the number of the insured,the premium rate should also be adjusted opportunely.Then,on the basis of Bayes' theorem,I adjust and calibrate the claim frequency and the average claim,in order to correctly adjust agricultural insurance premium rate;take the case of forest insurance for premium rate adjustment analysis.In setting and adjustment of agricultural insurance premium rate,in order to make the expected results well close to the real results,it is necessary to apply the probability estimates in a large number of risk units;focus on the establishment of agricultural risk database,to timely adjust agricultural insurance premium rate.展开更多
Based on theoretical analysis of crop risk and premium rate setting,we take the case of premium rate setting of insurance on cotton yield in Shache County,Shaya County and Aksu City of Xinjiang.Using parametric method...Based on theoretical analysis of crop risk and premium rate setting,we take the case of premium rate setting of insurance on cotton yield in Shache County,Shaya County and Aksu City of Xinjiang.Using parametric methods and insurance actuarial technique,we select the optimal model for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;compare the premium rate calculated accurately under four risk distribution assumptions of cotton yield,and the rational premium rate,to analyze the impact of risk distribution of crop yield on premium rate setting.The empirical results show that the Logistic distribution is the optimal distribution for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;the rational net premium rate of cotton insurance in three areas is 7.62%,6.32% and 4.96%,respectively;there are errors in premium rate setting under assumptions of normal distribution,normalized skew distribution and Weibull distribution,ranging from 0.2 percentage points to 8 percentage points.Thus,it indicates that the selection of risk distribution model of yield directly affects the accuracy of premium rate setting of crops,and the key to accurate premium rate setting of crops lies in correct selection of risk distribution model of yield.展开更多
文摘We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stochastic factors is considered by adding a diffusion process. The integro-differential equation for the ruin probability is derived by a infinitesimal method. Key words ruin probability - variable premium rate - diffusion process - Markov intensity CLC number O 211.9 Foundation item: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10071058, 70273029)
基金Supported by National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation Cultivation Fund Project,Hunan Agricultural University (GYB201003)
文摘First,using the law of large numbers,I analyze the setting principle of agricultural insurance premium rate,and take the case of setting of adult sow premium rate for study,to draw the conclusion that with the continuous promotion of agricultural insurance,increase in the types of agricultural insurance and increase in the number of the insured,the premium rate should also be adjusted opportunely.Then,on the basis of Bayes' theorem,I adjust and calibrate the claim frequency and the average claim,in order to correctly adjust agricultural insurance premium rate;take the case of forest insurance for premium rate adjustment analysis.In setting and adjustment of agricultural insurance premium rate,in order to make the expected results well close to the real results,it is necessary to apply the probability estimates in a large number of risk units;focus on the establishment of agricultural risk database,to timely adjust agricultural insurance premium rate.
基金Supported by International Cooperation Project of China's Agricultural Insurance (DelPHE ACIC)
文摘Based on theoretical analysis of crop risk and premium rate setting,we take the case of premium rate setting of insurance on cotton yield in Shache County,Shaya County and Aksu City of Xinjiang.Using parametric methods and insurance actuarial technique,we select the optimal model for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;compare the premium rate calculated accurately under four risk distribution assumptions of cotton yield,and the rational premium rate,to analyze the impact of risk distribution of crop yield on premium rate setting.The empirical results show that the Logistic distribution is the optimal distribution for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;the rational net premium rate of cotton insurance in three areas is 7.62%,6.32% and 4.96%,respectively;there are errors in premium rate setting under assumptions of normal distribution,normalized skew distribution and Weibull distribution,ranging from 0.2 percentage points to 8 percentage points.Thus,it indicates that the selection of risk distribution model of yield directly affects the accuracy of premium rate setting of crops,and the key to accurate premium rate setting of crops lies in correct selection of risk distribution model of yield.
