The smart grid utilizes the demand side management technology to motivate energy users towards cutting demand during peak power consumption periods, which greatly improves the operation efficiency of the power grid. H...The smart grid utilizes the demand side management technology to motivate energy users towards cutting demand during peak power consumption periods, which greatly improves the operation efficiency of the power grid. However, as the number of energy users participating in the smart grid continues to increase, the demand side management strategy of individual agent is greatly affected by the dynamic strategies of other agents. In addition, the existing demand side management methods, which need to obtain users’ power consumption information,seriously threaten the users’ privacy. To address the dynamic issue in the multi-microgrid demand side management model, a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning method based on centralized training and decentralized execution paradigm is presented to mitigate the damage of training performance caused by the instability of training experience. In order to protect users’ privacy, we design a neural network with fixed parameters as the encryptor to transform the users’ energy consumption information from low-dimensional to high-dimensional and theoretically prove that the proposed encryptor-based privacy preserving method will not affect the convergence property of the reinforcement learning algorithm. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed demand side management scheme with the real-world energy consumption data of Xi’an, Shaanxi, China. Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively improve users’ satisfaction while reducing the bill payment compared with traditional reinforcement learning(RL) methods(i.e., deep Q learning(DQN), deep deterministic policy gradient(DDPG),QMIX and multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient(MADDPG)). The results also demonstrate that the proposed privacy protection scheme can effectively protect users’ privacy while ensuring the performance of the algorithm.展开更多
Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates t...Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.展开更多
The relationship between the supply and demand for ecosystem services(ESs)is a key issue for the rational allocation of natural resources and optimisation of sustainable development capacity.This paper investigateed t...The relationship between the supply and demand for ecosystem services(ESs)is a key issue for the rational allocation of natural resources and optimisation of sustainable development capacity.This paper investigateed the dynamic evolution features of supply and demand of four ESs in Lanzhou of China,namely,water supply,food supply,carbon fixation and soil retention services.The crosssectional data of 2005 and 2017 were used for calculating ESs value and its supply and demand through ArcGIS software,InVEST model,elastic coefficient model and coupling coordination model.Results showed that:1)from 2005 to 2017,the supply of water supply services increased,the demand of soil retention services decreased,and the supply and demand of food supply and carbon fixation services increased.The high-value areas of service supply were mainly distributed in the rocky mountain areas in the southeast and northwest with high vegetation coverage,while the high-value areas of demand were mainly distributed in the urban areas and surrounding areas with high population density.2)There were five different types of coupling relations.Water supply service was dominated by a negative coupling type D,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Negative coupling type C was the main type of food supply and carbon fixation services,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.All three services were supplemented by a positive coupling type A,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Soil retention service generally exhibits a positive coupling type B,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.3)Over the past 12 yr,the coordination degree of supply and demand of water supply,food supply and soil retention services decreased,and the coordination degree of carbon fixation service increased.Various types of ES had a low degree of coupling and coordination,showing different characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution.The areas with imbalanced ESs supply and demand were mainly distributed in urban areas dominated by construction land.The research results are valuable to the optimisation of urban and rural ecological environments and the sustainable development of territory space under the framework of ecological civilisation,including similar ecologically vulnerable areas in other developing countries.展开更多
Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem h...Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.展开更多
The small and medium-sized river basins along southeast coast of China hold comparatively abundant water resources.However,the rapid resources urbanization in recent years has produced a series of water problems such ...The small and medium-sized river basins along southeast coast of China hold comparatively abundant water resources.However,the rapid resources urbanization in recent years has produced a series of water problems such as deterioration of river water quality,water shortage and exacerbated floods,which have constrained urban economic development.By applying the principle of triple supply-demand equilibrium,this paper focuses on the estimation of levels of water supply and demand in 2030 at different guarantee probabilities,with a case study of Xiamen city.The results show that water shortage and inefficient utilization are main problems in the city,as the future water supply looks daunting,and a water shortage may hit nearly 2×10^(8)m^(3)in an extraordinarily dry year.Based on current water supply-demand gap and its trend,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for developing and utilizing groundwater resources and improving the utilization rate of water resources,which can supply as a reference for other southeast middle-to-small-sized basin cities in terms of sustainable water resources and water environment protection.展开更多
Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their r...Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world's and China's supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world's six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China's compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China's demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world's demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China's accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world's YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China's bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world's predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China's crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China's bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China's iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China's crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China's bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.展开更多
The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development in Northwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65.94×108m3 of water resources available in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consu...The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development in Northwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65.94×108m3 of water resources available in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consumption in development and utilization is 43.33×108m3. Water supply and demand reach a balance on the recent level of production, but loss of evaporation and evapotranspiration is as much as 25.69×108m3. So net use efficiency of water resources is 59%. Based on analyzing balance between water and land considering ecological environment at present, there exists the serious water shortage in the Shiyang River system where irrigation lands have overloaded. There is a comparative balance between supply and demand of water resource in the Heihe River system; and the Sule River system has some surplus water to extend irrigation land. Use of agriculture water accounts for 83.3% and ecological forest and grass for 6.9%. The Hexi Corridor still has a great potential for water saving in agriculture production. Water saving efficiency of irrigation is about 10% by using such traditional technologies as furrow and border dike irrigation and small check irrigation, and water saving with plastic film cover and techniques of advanced sprinkler and drip/micro irrigation etc. can save more than 60% of irrigated water. Incremental irrigation area for water saving potential in the Hexi Corridor has been estimated as 56%-197% to original irrigation area. So the second water sources can be developed from water saving agriculture in the Hexi Corridor under Development of the Western Part of China in large scale. This potential can be realized step by step through developing the water saving measures, improving the ecological condition of oasis agriculture, and optimizing allocation of water resources in three river systems.展开更多
Contract is a common and effective mechanism for supply chain coordination,which has been studied extensively in recent years.For a supply chain network model,contracts can be used to coordinate it because it is too i...Contract is a common and effective mechanism for supply chain coordination,which has been studied extensively in recent years.For a supply chain network model,contracts can be used to coordinate it because it is too ideal to obtain the network equilibrium state in practical market competition.In order to achieve equilibrium,we introduce revenue sharing contract into a supply chain network equilibrium model with random demand in this paper.Then,we investigate the influence on this network equilibrium state from demand disruptions caused by unexpected emergencies.When demand disruptions happen,the supply chain network equilibrium state will be broken and change to a new one,so the decision makers need to adjust the contract parameters to achieve the new coordinated state through bargaining.Finally,a numerical example with a sudden demand increase as a result of emergent event is provided for illustrative purposes.展开更多
A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there a...A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there are strong complementarities between two models. Firstly, the rough set was used to reduce the condition attributes, then to eliminate the attributes that were redundant for the forecast, Secondly, it adopted the minimum condition attributes obtained by reduction and the corresponding original data to re-form a new training sample, which only kept the important attributes affecting the forecast accuracy. Finally, it studied and trained the SVM with the training samples after reduction, inputted the test samples re-formed by the minimum condition attributes and the corresponding original data, and then got the mapping relationship model between condition attributes and forecast variables after testing it. This model was used to forecast the power supply and demand. The results show that the average absolute error rate of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are 14.21% and 13.23%, respectively, which indicates that the RS-SVM forecast model has a higher degree of accuracy.展开更多
During 2016-2017, both the supply and demand of China＇s main mineral resources continued to grow. Theimport of major energy resources and metal ore resources,such as iron ores, crude oil, natural gas, coal and bauxit...During 2016-2017, both the supply and demand of China＇s main mineral resources continued to grow. Theimport of major energy resources and metal ore resources,such as iron ores, crude oil, natural gas, coal and bauxite,except for copper, has shown a substantial increase （Table 1）。展开更多
The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China’s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting t...The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China’s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China’s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.展开更多
Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China’s oil demand a...Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China’s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.展开更多
Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance o...Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year (2003), the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.展开更多
The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public...The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public goods is characterized by non-excludability,non-competitiveness and indispensability of other general public goods.The supply situation of Chinese government to rural public goods is analyzed,as well as the demand situation of rural public goods,which includes farmers' demand on training,the assistance demand of rural weak groups,farmers' demand on comfortable living conditions and farmers' demand on "soft" public goods.The paths for innovating the supply mechanism of rural public goods are put forward,which cover perfecting the decision mechanism of public goods supply;scientifically distributing the supply responsibility of rural public goods;facilitating the reform of each supporting equipment and exploring the multiple capital collecting channels of rural public goods.展开更多
Promoting agricultural production and ensuring the supply of agricultural products has always been the main task of agricultural development in China,but the agricultural production in China has not yet been combined ...Promoting agricultural production and ensuring the supply of agricultural products has always been the main task of agricultural development in China,but the agricultural production in China has not yet been combined with the Chinese residents' dietary needs to formulate reasonable development goals,with a certain blindness in production. According to the dietary standards in The Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents developed by the Chinese Nutrition Society,we calculate the demand of various types of agricultural products in China under the conditions of balanced diet. In comparison with the output of various types of agricultural products in China at present,we find that the output of most of agricultural products in China has exceeded the reasonable demand of the Chinese residents under the conditions of balanced diet. Therefore,adjusting the agricultural production structure in China and advocating balanced diet has become an important way to solve the problem of balance between supply and demand of agricultural products.展开更多
A water supply model and a water demand model are developed to exercise resources budgets of the North China Plain with a planning horizon of the year 2030. The budgets indicate that the North China Plain would face s...A water supply model and a water demand model are developed to exercise resources budgets of the North China Plain with a planning horizon of the year 2030. The budgets indicate that the North China Plain would face serious water stress from 1993 to 2000, and water resources available in the region can not meet the needs of the socioeconomic development and environment from 2000 to 2030. The south/north Water transfer project is the only option to solve the emerging water crisis.展开更多
We are accustomed to solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region by the thought of increasing the effective supply of water to meet the needs of Go-west Campaign. After introducing the dynamic equili...We are accustomed to solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region by the thought of increasing the effective supply of water to meet the needs of Go-west Campaign. After introducing the dynamic equilibrium principle on supply and demand in economy, we find that we should solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region through reducing total demand to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand. Finally water resources in the western region can be enlarged by an accumulated way.展开更多
After China entries WTO, China's ‘ textile · garment'industry will confront the difficulties of growth and development. From the view of supply and demand interaction which is common in the social econom...After China entries WTO, China's ‘ textile · garment'industry will confront the difficulties of growth and development. From the view of supply and demand interaction which is common in the social economy, this article analyzes the economic construction and character of China's ‘ textile · garment' industry, represented by Shanghai,Research shows that industrial construction backwardness hinders China's ‘ textile· garment' industry development, which features four bottlenecks in supply and demand interaction in ‘ textile· garment' industry.The key of optimizing the construction and quality of supply and denand interaction in ‘textile· garment'industry is to adjust industrial construction, break the bottlenecks, establish Shanghai as international fashion center, open middle and small size textile processing area with several levels, attach importance to scientific and technology creation and development combined with production, learning and research, and take part in domestic and international maket competition by high added value product, technology and marketing network.展开更多
In a two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer,the supply chain coordination mechanism in a fuzzy continuous demand environment is researched.A positive triangular fuzzy number is used to model ...In a two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer,the supply chain coordination mechanism in a fuzzy continuous demand environment is researched.A positive triangular fuzzy number is used to model the external market demand.Using the method of fuzzy cut sets theory,both fuzzy decentralized and centralized decision-making processes are analyzed,and another model of fuzzy return contract is proposed to help coordinate such supply chain.It is shown that in fuzzy environment there exists a unique solution of the retailer's optimal order quantity,the double marginalization problem can be solved by providing different tactics for wholesale pricing and return pricing,and the fuzzy expected profit of each actor can be expected to improve in the return contract.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the models and the solution-seeking process.展开更多
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity gene...The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.展开更多
基金supported in part by the National Science Foundation of China (61973247, 61673315, 62173268)the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi (2022GY-033)+2 种基金the Nationa Postdoctoral Innovative Talents Support Program of China (BX20200272)the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61833015)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (xzy022021050)。
文摘The smart grid utilizes the demand side management technology to motivate energy users towards cutting demand during peak power consumption periods, which greatly improves the operation efficiency of the power grid. However, as the number of energy users participating in the smart grid continues to increase, the demand side management strategy of individual agent is greatly affected by the dynamic strategies of other agents. In addition, the existing demand side management methods, which need to obtain users’ power consumption information,seriously threaten the users’ privacy. To address the dynamic issue in the multi-microgrid demand side management model, a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning method based on centralized training and decentralized execution paradigm is presented to mitigate the damage of training performance caused by the instability of training experience. In order to protect users’ privacy, we design a neural network with fixed parameters as the encryptor to transform the users’ energy consumption information from low-dimensional to high-dimensional and theoretically prove that the proposed encryptor-based privacy preserving method will not affect the convergence property of the reinforcement learning algorithm. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed demand side management scheme with the real-world energy consumption data of Xi’an, Shaanxi, China. Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively improve users’ satisfaction while reducing the bill payment compared with traditional reinforcement learning(RL) methods(i.e., deep Q learning(DQN), deep deterministic policy gradient(DDPG),QMIX and multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient(MADDPG)). The results also demonstrate that the proposed privacy protection scheme can effectively protect users’ privacy while ensuring the performance of the algorithm.
文摘Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41861034)。
文摘The relationship between the supply and demand for ecosystem services(ESs)is a key issue for the rational allocation of natural resources and optimisation of sustainable development capacity.This paper investigateed the dynamic evolution features of supply and demand of four ESs in Lanzhou of China,namely,water supply,food supply,carbon fixation and soil retention services.The crosssectional data of 2005 and 2017 were used for calculating ESs value and its supply and demand through ArcGIS software,InVEST model,elastic coefficient model and coupling coordination model.Results showed that:1)from 2005 to 2017,the supply of water supply services increased,the demand of soil retention services decreased,and the supply and demand of food supply and carbon fixation services increased.The high-value areas of service supply were mainly distributed in the rocky mountain areas in the southeast and northwest with high vegetation coverage,while the high-value areas of demand were mainly distributed in the urban areas and surrounding areas with high population density.2)There were five different types of coupling relations.Water supply service was dominated by a negative coupling type D,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Negative coupling type C was the main type of food supply and carbon fixation services,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.All three services were supplemented by a positive coupling type A,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Soil retention service generally exhibits a positive coupling type B,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.3)Over the past 12 yr,the coordination degree of supply and demand of water supply,food supply and soil retention services decreased,and the coordination degree of carbon fixation service increased.Various types of ES had a low degree of coupling and coordination,showing different characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution.The areas with imbalanced ESs supply and demand were mainly distributed in urban areas dominated by construction land.The research results are valuable to the optimisation of urban and rural ecological environments and the sustainable development of territory space under the framework of ecological civilisation,including similar ecologically vulnerable areas in other developing countries.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 42171258,41877084)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(grant number 2021JJ30448)。
文摘Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.
基金This paper was funded by the Geological Survey Project of China Geological Survey"Comprehensive Geological Survey of Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou City"(DD20190303).
文摘The small and medium-sized river basins along southeast coast of China hold comparatively abundant water resources.However,the rapid resources urbanization in recent years has produced a series of water problems such as deterioration of river water quality,water shortage and exacerbated floods,which have constrained urban economic development.By applying the principle of triple supply-demand equilibrium,this paper focuses on the estimation of levels of water supply and demand in 2030 at different guarantee probabilities,with a case study of Xiamen city.The results show that water shortage and inefficient utilization are main problems in the city,as the future water supply looks daunting,and a water shortage may hit nearly 2×10^(8)m^(3)in an extraordinarily dry year.Based on current water supply-demand gap and its trend,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for developing and utilizing groundwater resources and improving the utilization rate of water resources,which can supply as a reference for other southeast middle-to-small-sized basin cities in terms of sustainable water resources and water environment protection.
基金supported by the China geological survey subproject of Dynamic Track and Evaluation of the Guarantee Degree of the Main Mineral Resources in China(No.121201103000150112,N1618-8)
文摘Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world's and China's supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world's six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China's compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China's demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world's demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China's accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world's YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China's bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world's predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China's crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China's bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China's iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China's crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China's bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.
文摘The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development in Northwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65.94×108m3 of water resources available in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consumption in development and utilization is 43.33×108m3. Water supply and demand reach a balance on the recent level of production, but loss of evaporation and evapotranspiration is as much as 25.69×108m3. So net use efficiency of water resources is 59%. Based on analyzing balance between water and land considering ecological environment at present, there exists the serious water shortage in the Shiyang River system where irrigation lands have overloaded. There is a comparative balance between supply and demand of water resource in the Heihe River system; and the Sule River system has some surplus water to extend irrigation land. Use of agriculture water accounts for 83.3% and ecological forest and grass for 6.9%. The Hexi Corridor still has a great potential for water saving in agriculture production. Water saving efficiency of irrigation is about 10% by using such traditional technologies as furrow and border dike irrigation and small check irrigation, and water saving with plastic film cover and techniques of advanced sprinkler and drip/micro irrigation etc. can save more than 60% of irrigated water. Incremental irrigation area for water saving potential in the Hexi Corridor has been estimated as 56%-197% to original irrigation area. So the second water sources can be developed from water saving agriculture in the Hexi Corridor under Development of the Western Part of China in large scale. This potential can be realized step by step through developing the water saving measures, improving the ecological condition of oasis agriculture, and optimizing allocation of water resources in three river systems.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (No. 2006BAH02A06)"333 Engineering"Project of Jiangsu Province
文摘Contract is a common and effective mechanism for supply chain coordination,which has been studied extensively in recent years.For a supply chain network model,contracts can be used to coordinate it because it is too ideal to obtain the network equilibrium state in practical market competition.In order to achieve equilibrium,we introduce revenue sharing contract into a supply chain network equilibrium model with random demand in this paper.Then,we investigate the influence on this network equilibrium state from demand disruptions caused by unexpected emergencies.When demand disruptions happen,the supply chain network equilibrium state will be broken and change to a new one,so the decision makers need to adjust the contract parameters to achieve the new coordinated state through bargaining.Finally,a numerical example with a sudden demand increase as a result of emergent event is provided for illustrative purposes.
基金Project(70901025) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there are strong complementarities between two models. Firstly, the rough set was used to reduce the condition attributes, then to eliminate the attributes that were redundant for the forecast, Secondly, it adopted the minimum condition attributes obtained by reduction and the corresponding original data to re-form a new training sample, which only kept the important attributes affecting the forecast accuracy. Finally, it studied and trained the SVM with the training samples after reduction, inputted the test samples re-formed by the minimum condition attributes and the corresponding original data, and then got the mapping relationship model between condition attributes and forecast variables after testing it. This model was used to forecast the power supply and demand. The results show that the average absolute error rate of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are 14.21% and 13.23%, respectively, which indicates that the RS-SVM forecast model has a higher degree of accuracy.
文摘During 2016-2017, both the supply and demand of China＇s main mineral resources continued to grow. Theimport of major energy resources and metal ore resources,such as iron ores, crude oil, natural gas, coal and bauxite,except for copper, has shown a substantial increase （Table 1）。
文摘The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China’s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China’s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.
文摘Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China’s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.
基金This work was supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program from the Cold and Add Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CACX2003102）the Chinese Academy of Sciences （KZCX 1 - 10-03-01）the National Natural Science Foundation of China （40401012）.
文摘Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year (2003), the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.
文摘The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public goods is characterized by non-excludability,non-competitiveness and indispensability of other general public goods.The supply situation of Chinese government to rural public goods is analyzed,as well as the demand situation of rural public goods,which includes farmers' demand on training,the assistance demand of rural weak groups,farmers' demand on comfortable living conditions and farmers' demand on "soft" public goods.The paths for innovating the supply mechanism of rural public goods are put forward,which cover perfecting the decision mechanism of public goods supply;scientifically distributing the supply responsibility of rural public goods;facilitating the reform of each supporting equipment and exploring the multiple capital collecting channels of rural public goods.
基金Supported by the Special Fund of Chinese Central Government for Basic Scientific Research Operations in Public-interest Research Institutes (202-23)
文摘Promoting agricultural production and ensuring the supply of agricultural products has always been the main task of agricultural development in China,but the agricultural production in China has not yet been combined with the Chinese residents' dietary needs to formulate reasonable development goals,with a certain blindness in production. According to the dietary standards in The Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents developed by the Chinese Nutrition Society,we calculate the demand of various types of agricultural products in China under the conditions of balanced diet. In comparison with the output of various types of agricultural products in China at present,we find that the output of most of agricultural products in China has exceeded the reasonable demand of the Chinese residents under the conditions of balanced diet. Therefore,adjusting the agricultural production structure in China and advocating balanced diet has become an important way to solve the problem of balance between supply and demand of agricultural products.
基金Under the auspices of the key project!KZ951-Al-203 of CAS National Natural Science Foundation of China!49971020
文摘A water supply model and a water demand model are developed to exercise resources budgets of the North China Plain with a planning horizon of the year 2030. The budgets indicate that the North China Plain would face serious water stress from 1993 to 2000, and water resources available in the region can not meet the needs of the socioeconomic development and environment from 2000 to 2030. The south/north Water transfer project is the only option to solve the emerging water crisis.
文摘We are accustomed to solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region by the thought of increasing the effective supply of water to meet the needs of Go-west Campaign. After introducing the dynamic equilibrium principle on supply and demand in economy, we find that we should solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region through reducing total demand to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand. Finally water resources in the western region can be enlarged by an accumulated way.
文摘After China entries WTO, China's ‘ textile · garment'industry will confront the difficulties of growth and development. From the view of supply and demand interaction which is common in the social economy, this article analyzes the economic construction and character of China's ‘ textile · garment' industry, represented by Shanghai,Research shows that industrial construction backwardness hinders China's ‘ textile· garment' industry development, which features four bottlenecks in supply and demand interaction in ‘ textile· garment' industry.The key of optimizing the construction and quality of supply and denand interaction in ‘textile· garment'industry is to adjust industrial construction, break the bottlenecks, establish Shanghai as international fashion center, open middle and small size textile processing area with several levels, attach importance to scientific and technology creation and development combined with production, learning and research, and take part in domestic and international maket competition by high added value product, technology and marketing network.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (7047106370771010)
文摘In a two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer,the supply chain coordination mechanism in a fuzzy continuous demand environment is researched.A positive triangular fuzzy number is used to model the external market demand.Using the method of fuzzy cut sets theory,both fuzzy decentralized and centralized decision-making processes are analyzed,and another model of fuzzy return contract is proposed to help coordinate such supply chain.It is shown that in fuzzy environment there exists a unique solution of the retailer's optimal order quantity,the double marginalization problem can be solved by providing different tactics for wholesale pricing and return pricing,and the fuzzy expected profit of each actor can be expected to improve in the return contract.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the models and the solution-seeking process.
基金sponsored by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC0704400)the Programmer of Introducing Talents (Grant No. B13011)
文摘The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.
