In order to predict the remaining service life of brake pads accurately and efficiently,and to achieve intelligent warning,this paper proposes a CNN-LSTM brake pad remaining life prediction model based on an attention...In order to predict the remaining service life of brake pads accurately and efficiently,and to achieve intelligent warning,this paper proposes a CNN-LSTM brake pad remaining life prediction model based on an attention mechanism.The model constructs a non-linear relationship between brake pad features such as brake temperature,brake oil pressure and brake speed and brake pad wear data through convolutional neural network(CNN)and long and short term memory network(LSTM),as well as capturing the time dependence that exists in the brake pad wear sequence.The attention mechanism is also introduced to assign different weight values to the features output from multiple historical moments,highlighting the features with high saliency and avoiding the influence of invalid features,so as to improve the prediction effect of the remaining brake pad life.The results show that the proposed CNN-LSTM-Attention model can effectively predict the remaining life of brake pads,with the mean absolute error MAE value of 0.0048,root mean square error RMSE value of 0.0059 and coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.9636;and compared with the BP model,CNN model,LSTM model and CNN-LSTM model,the coefficient of determination R2 values are closest to 1,with an improvement of 8.26%,5.25%,3.99%and 1.85%respectively,enabling more effective monitoring and intelligent warning of the remaining brake pad life.展开更多
In order to prevent possible casualties and economic loss, it is critical to accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) in rail prognostics health management. However, the traditional neural networks is di...In order to prevent possible casualties and economic loss, it is critical to accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) in rail prognostics health management. However, the traditional neural networks is difficult to capture the long-term dependency relationship of the time series in the modeling of the long time series of rail damage, due to the coupling relationship of multi-channel data from multiple sensors. Here, in this paper, a novel RUL prediction model with an enhanced pulse separable convolution is used to solve this issue. Firstly, a coding module based on the improved pulse separable convolutional network is established to effectively model the relationship between the data. To enhance the network, an alternate gradient back propagation method is implemented. And an efficient channel attention (ECA) mechanism is developed for better emphasizing the useful pulse characteristics. Secondly, an optimized Transformer encoder was designed to serve as the backbone of the model. It has the ability to efficiently understand relationship between the data itself and each other at each time step of long time series with a full life cycle. More importantly, the Transformer encoder is improved by integrating pulse maximum pooling to retain more pulse timing characteristics. Finally, based on the characteristics of the front layer, the final predicted RUL value was provided and served as the end-to-end solution. The empirical findings validate the efficacy of the suggested approach in forecasting the rail RUL, surpassing various existing data-driven prognostication techniques. Meanwhile, the proposed method also shows good generalization performance on PHM2012 bearing data set.展开更多
The safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion batteries necessitates the accurate prediction of remaining useful life(RUL).However,this task is challenging due to the diverse ageing mechanisms,various operating condi...The safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion batteries necessitates the accurate prediction of remaining useful life(RUL).However,this task is challenging due to the diverse ageing mechanisms,various operating conditions,and limited measured signals.Although data-driven methods are perceived as a promising solution,they ignore intrinsic battery physics,leading to compromised accuracy,low efficiency,and low interpretability.In response,this study integrates domain knowledge into deep learning to enhance the RUL prediction performance.We demonstrate accurate RUL prediction using only a single charging curve.First,a generalisable physics-based model is developed to extract ageing-correlated parameters that can describe and explain battery degradation from battery charging data.The parameters inform a deep neural network(DNN)to predict RUL with high accuracy and efficiency.The trained model is validated under 3 types of batteries working under 7 conditions,considering fully charged and partially charged cases.Using data from one cycle only,the proposed method achieves a root mean squared error(RMSE)of 11.42 cycles and a mean absolute relative error(MARE)of 3.19%on average,which are over45%and 44%lower compared to the two state-of-the-art data-driven methods,respectively.Besides its accuracy,the proposed method also outperforms existing methods in terms of efficiency,input burden,and robustness.The inherent relationship between the model parameters and the battery degradation mechanism is further revealed,substantiating the intrinsic superiority of the proposed method.展开更多
In recent years,intelligent data-driven prognostic methods have been successfully developed,and good machinery health assessment performance has been achieved through explorations of data from multiple sensors.However...In recent years,intelligent data-driven prognostic methods have been successfully developed,and good machinery health assessment performance has been achieved through explorations of data from multiple sensors.However,existing datafusion prognostic approaches generally rely on the data availability of all sensors,and are vulnerable to potential sensor malfunctions,which are likely to occur in real industries especially for machines in harsh operating environments.In this paper,a deep learning-based remaining useful life(RUL)prediction method is proposed to address the sensor malfunction problem.A global feature extraction scheme is adopted to fully exploit information of different sensors.Adversarial learning is further introduced to extract generalized sensor-invariant features.Through explorations of both global and shared features,promising and robust RUL prediction performance can be achieved by the proposed method in the testing scenarios with sensor malfunctions.The experimental results suggest the proposed approach is well suited for real industrial applications.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a n...Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.展开更多
Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage devices,for which the accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial to their reliable operation and accident prevention.This work thoroug...Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage devices,for which the accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial to their reliable operation and accident prevention.This work thoroughly investigates the developmental trend of RUL prediction with machine learning(ML)algorithms based on the objective screening and statistics of related papers over the past decade to analyze the research core and find future improvement directions.The possibility of extending lithium-ion battery lifetime using RUL prediction results is also explored in this paper.The ten most used ML algorithms for RUL prediction are first identified in 380 relevant papers.Then the general flow of RUL prediction and an in-depth introduction to the four most used signal pre-processing techniques in RUL prediction are presented.The research core of common ML algorithms is given first time in a uniform format in chronological order.The algorithms are also compared from aspects of accuracy and characteristics comprehensively,and the novel and general improvement directions or opportunities including improvement in early prediction,local regeneration modeling,physical information fusion,generalized transfer learning,and hardware implementation are further outlooked.Finally,the methods of battery lifetime extension are summarized,and the feasibility of using RUL as an indicator for extending battery lifetime is outlooked.Battery lifetime can be extended by optimizing the charging profile serval times according to the accurate RUL prediction results online in the future.This paper aims to give inspiration to the future improvement of ML algorithms in battery RUL prediction and lifetime extension strategy.展开更多
A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adh...A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomne...Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.展开更多
Supercapacitors are appealing energy storage devices for their promising features like high power density,outstanding cycling stability,and a quick charge–discharge cycle.The exceptional life cycle and ultimate power...Supercapacitors are appealing energy storage devices for their promising features like high power density,outstanding cycling stability,and a quick charge–discharge cycle.The exceptional life cycle and ultimate power capability of supercapacitors are needed in the transportation and renewable energy generation sectors.Hence,predicting the capacitance and lifecycle of supercapacitors is significant for selecting the suitable material and planning replacement intervals for supercapacitors.In addition,system failures can be better addressed by accurately forecasting the lifecycle of SCs.Recently,the use of machine learning for performance prediction of energy storage materials has drawn increasing attention from researchers globally because of its superiority in prediction accuracy,time efficiency,and costeffectiveness.This article presents a detailed review of the progress and advancement of ML techniques for the prediction of capacitance and remaining useful life(RUL)of supercapacitors.The review starts with an introduction to supercapacitor materials and ML applications in energy storage devices,followed by workflow for ML model building for supercapacitor materials.Then,the summary of machine learning applications for the prediction of capacitance and RUL of different supercapacitor materials including EDLCs(carbon based materials),pesudocapacitive(oxides and composites)and hybrid materials is presented.Finally,the general perspective for future directions is also presented.展开更多
Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium-ion batteries is critical for their large-scale deployment as energy storage devices in electric vehicles and stationary storage.A fundamental understand...Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium-ion batteries is critical for their large-scale deployment as energy storage devices in electric vehicles and stationary storage.A fundamental understanding of the factors affecting RUL is crucial for accelerating battery technology development.However,it is very challenging to predict RUL accurately because of complex degradation mechanisms occurring within the batteries,as well as dynamic operating conditions in practical applications.Moreover,due to insignificant capacity degradation in early stages,early prediction of battery life with early cycle data can be more difficult.In this paper,we propose a hybrid deep learning model for early prediction of battery RUL.The proposed method can effectively combine handcrafted features with domain knowledge and latent features learned by deep networks to boost the performance of RUL early prediction.We also design a non-linear correlation-based method to select effective domain knowledge-based features.Moreover,a novel snapshot ensemble learning strategy is proposed to further enhance model generalization ability without increasing any additional training cost.Our experimental results show that the proposed method not only outperforms other approaches in the primary test set having a similar distribution as the training set,but also generalizes well to the secondary test set having a clearly different distribution with the training set.The PyTorch implementation of our proposed approach is available at https://github.com/batteryrul/battery_rul_early_prediction.展开更多
As the fundamental and key technique to ensure the safe and reliable operation of vital systems,prognostics with an emphasis on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction has attracted great attention in the last decade...As the fundamental and key technique to ensure the safe and reliable operation of vital systems,prognostics with an emphasis on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction has attracted great attention in the last decades.In this paper,we briefly discuss the general idea and advances of various prognostics and RUL prediction methods for machinery,mainly including data-driven methods,physics-based methods,hybrid methods,etc.Based on the observations fromthe state of the art,we provide comprehensive discussions on the possible opportunities and challenges of prognostics and RUL prediction of machinery so as to steer the future development.展开更多
Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipmen...Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction.展开更多
To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and t...To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and these parts or components are working in the same environment, thus the degradations of these parts or components will be influenced by common factors. To describe such a phenomenon in degradations, a multi-degradation model with public noise is proposed. To identify the degradation states and the unknown parameters, an iterative estimation method is proposed by using the Kalman filter and the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm. Next, with known thresholds,the RUL of each degradation can be predicted by using the first hitting time(FHT). In addition, the RUL of the whole system can be obtained by a Copula function. Finally, a practical case is used to demonstrate the method proposed.展开更多
As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenanc...As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy when only vibration or oil signal is used to predict the remaining life of gear wear,a gear wear life feature fusion prediction method based on temporal pattern...In order to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy when only vibration or oil signal is used to predict the remaining life of gear wear,a gear wear life feature fusion prediction method based on temporal pattern attention mechanism is proposed.Firstly,deep residual shrinkage network(DRSN)is used to extract the features of the original vibration time series signals with low signal-tonoise ratio,and the vibration features associated with gear wear evolution are obtained.Secondly,the extracted vibration features and the oil monitoring data that can intuitively reflect the wear process information are jointly input into the bi-directional long short-term memory neural network based on temporal pattern attention mechanism(TPA-BiLSTM),the complex nonlinear relationship between vibration features,oil features and gear wear process evolution is further explored to improve the prediction accuracy.The gear life cycle dynamic response and wear process signals are obtained based on the gear numerical simulation model,and the feasibility of the proposed method is verified.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the residual life prediction of gear on a test bench,and the comparison between different methods proved the validity of the proposed method.展开更多
For the large number of nonlinear degradation devices existing in a project, the existing methods have not systematically studied the effects of random effect on the remaining lifetime(RL),the accuracy and efficiency ...For the large number of nonlinear degradation devices existing in a project, the existing methods have not systematically studied the effects of random effect on the remaining lifetime(RL),the accuracy and efficiency of the parameters estimation are not high, and the current degradation state of the target device is not accurately estimated. In this paper, a nonlinear Wiener degradation model with random effect is proposed and the corresponding probability density function(PDF) of the first hitting time(FHT)is deduced. A parameter estimation method based on modified expectation maximum(EM) algorithm is proposed to obtain the estimated value of fixed coefficient and the priori value of random coefficient in the model. The posterior value of the random coefficient and the current degradation state of target device are updated synchronously by the state space model(SSM) and the Kalman filter algorithm. The PDF of RL with random effect is deduced. A simulation example is analyzed to verify that the proposed method has the obvious advantage over the existing methods in parameter estimation error and RL prediction accuracy.展开更多
The remaining useful life(RUL)of a system is generally predicted by utilising the data collected from the sensors that continuously monitor different indicators.Recently,different deep learning(DL)techniques have been...The remaining useful life(RUL)of a system is generally predicted by utilising the data collected from the sensors that continuously monitor different indicators.Recently,different deep learning(DL)techniques have been used for RUL prediction and achieved great success.Because the data is often time-sequential,recurrent neural network(RNN)has attracted significant interests due to its efficiency in dealing with such data.This paper systematically reviews RNN and its variants for RUL prediction,with a specific focus on understanding how different components(e.g.,types of optimisers and activation functions)or parameters(e.g.,sequence length,neuron quantities)affect their performance.After that,a case study using the well-studied NASA’s C-MAPSS dataset is presented to quantitatively evaluate the influence of various state-of-the-art RNN structures on the RUL prediction performance.The result suggests that the variant methods usually perform better than the original RNN,and among which,Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory generally has the best performance in terms of stability,precision and accuracy.Certain model structures may fail to produce valid RUL prediction result due to the gradient vanishing or gradient exploring problem if the parameters are not chosen appropriately.It is concluded that parameter tuning is a crucial step to achieve optimal prediction performance.展开更多
Accurate remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is important in industrial systems.It prevents machines from working under failure conditions,and ensures that the industrial system works reliably and efficiently.Recentl...Accurate remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is important in industrial systems.It prevents machines from working under failure conditions,and ensures that the industrial system works reliably and efficiently.Recently,many deep learning based methods have been proposed to predict RUL.Among these methods,recurrent neural network(RNN)based approaches show a strong capability of capturing sequential information.This allows RNN based methods to perform better than convolutional neural network(CNN)based approaches on the RUL prediction task.In this paper,we question this common paradigm and argue that existing CNN based approaches are not designed according to the classic principles of CNN,which reduces their performances.Additionally,the capacity of capturing sequential information is highly affected by the receptive field of CNN,which is neglected by existing CNN based methods.To solve these problems,we propose a series of new CNNs,which show competitive results to RNN based methods.Compared with RNN,CNN processes the input signals in parallel so that the temporal sequence is not easily determined.To alleviate this issue,a position encoding scheme is developed to enhance the sequential information encoded by a CNN.Hence,our proposed position encoding based CNN called PE-Net is further improved and even performs better than RNN based methods.Extensive experiments are conducted on the C-MAPSS dataset,where our PE-Net shows state-of-the-art performance.展开更多
The key to failure prevention for aero-engine lies in performance prediction and the exhaust gas temperature margin(EGTM)is used as the most important degradation parameter to obtain the operating performance of the a...The key to failure prevention for aero-engine lies in performance prediction and the exhaust gas temperature margin(EGTM)is used as the most important degradation parameter to obtain the operating performance of the aero-engine.Because of the complex environment interference,EGTM always has strong randomness,and the state space based degradation model can identify the noisy observation from the true degradation state,which is more close to the actual situations.Therefore,a state space model based on EGTM is established to describe the degradation path and predict the remaining useful life(RUL).As one of the most effective methods for both linear state estimation and parameter estimation,Kalman filter(KF)is applied.Firstly,with EGTM degradation data,state space model approach is used to set up a state space model for aero-engine.Secondly,RUL of aero-engine is analyzed,and expected RUL and distribution of RUL are determined.Finally,the sate space model and KF algorithm are applied to an example of CFM-56aero-engine.The expected RUL is predicted,and corresponding probability density distribution(PDF)and cumulative distribution function(CDF)are given.The result indicates that the accuracy of RUL prediction reaches 7.76%ahead 580 flight cycles(FC),which is more accurate than linear regression,and therefore shows the validity and rationality of the proposed method.展开更多
A method is proposed to improve the accuracy of remaining useful life prediction for rolling element bearings,based on a state space model(SSM)with different degradation stages and a particle filter.The model is impro...A method is proposed to improve the accuracy of remaining useful life prediction for rolling element bearings,based on a state space model(SSM)with different degradation stages and a particle filter.The model is improved by a method based on the Paris formula and the Foreman formula allowing the establishment of different degradation stages.The remaining useful life of rolling element bearings can be predicted by the adjusted model with inputs of physical data and operating status information.The late operating trend is predicted by the use of the particle filter algorithm.The rolling bearing full life experimental data validate the proposed method.Further,the prediction result is compared with the single SSM and the Gamma model,and the results indicate that the predicted accuracy of the proposed method is higher with better practicability.展开更多
基金financed with the means of Liaoning Provincial Science and Technology Department natural Science Regional Joint Fund project,No.2022-YKLH-03.
文摘In order to predict the remaining service life of brake pads accurately and efficiently,and to achieve intelligent warning,this paper proposes a CNN-LSTM brake pad remaining life prediction model based on an attention mechanism.The model constructs a non-linear relationship between brake pad features such as brake temperature,brake oil pressure and brake speed and brake pad wear data through convolutional neural network(CNN)and long and short term memory network(LSTM),as well as capturing the time dependence that exists in the brake pad wear sequence.The attention mechanism is also introduced to assign different weight values to the features output from multiple historical moments,highlighting the features with high saliency and avoiding the influence of invalid features,so as to improve the prediction effect of the remaining brake pad life.The results show that the proposed CNN-LSTM-Attention model can effectively predict the remaining life of brake pads,with the mean absolute error MAE value of 0.0048,root mean square error RMSE value of 0.0059 and coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.9636;and compared with the BP model,CNN model,LSTM model and CNN-LSTM model,the coefficient of determination R2 values are closest to 1,with an improvement of 8.26%,5.25%,3.99%and 1.85%respectively,enabling more effective monitoring and intelligent warning of the remaining brake pad life.
文摘In order to prevent possible casualties and economic loss, it is critical to accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) in rail prognostics health management. However, the traditional neural networks is difficult to capture the long-term dependency relationship of the time series in the modeling of the long time series of rail damage, due to the coupling relationship of multi-channel data from multiple sensors. Here, in this paper, a novel RUL prediction model with an enhanced pulse separable convolution is used to solve this issue. Firstly, a coding module based on the improved pulse separable convolutional network is established to effectively model the relationship between the data. To enhance the network, an alternate gradient back propagation method is implemented. And an efficient channel attention (ECA) mechanism is developed for better emphasizing the useful pulse characteristics. Secondly, an optimized Transformer encoder was designed to serve as the backbone of the model. It has the ability to efficiently understand relationship between the data itself and each other at each time step of long time series with a full life cycle. More importantly, the Transformer encoder is improved by integrating pulse maximum pooling to retain more pulse timing characteristics. Finally, based on the characteristics of the front layer, the final predicted RUL value was provided and served as the end-to-end solution. The empirical findings validate the efficacy of the suggested approach in forecasting the rail RUL, surpassing various existing data-driven prognostication techniques. Meanwhile, the proposed method also shows good generalization performance on PHM2012 bearing data set.
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52207229)the financial support from the China Scholarship Council(202207550010)。
文摘The safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion batteries necessitates the accurate prediction of remaining useful life(RUL).However,this task is challenging due to the diverse ageing mechanisms,various operating conditions,and limited measured signals.Although data-driven methods are perceived as a promising solution,they ignore intrinsic battery physics,leading to compromised accuracy,low efficiency,and low interpretability.In response,this study integrates domain knowledge into deep learning to enhance the RUL prediction performance.We demonstrate accurate RUL prediction using only a single charging curve.First,a generalisable physics-based model is developed to extract ageing-correlated parameters that can describe and explain battery degradation from battery charging data.The parameters inform a deep neural network(DNN)to predict RUL with high accuracy and efficiency.The trained model is validated under 3 types of batteries working under 7 conditions,considering fully charged and partially charged cases.Using data from one cycle only,the proposed method achieves a root mean squared error(RMSE)of 11.42 cycles and a mean absolute relative error(MARE)of 3.19%on average,which are over45%and 44%lower compared to the two state-of-the-art data-driven methods,respectively.Besides its accuracy,the proposed method also outperforms existing methods in terms of efficiency,input burden,and robustness.The inherent relationship between the model parameters and the battery degradation mechanism is further revealed,substantiating the intrinsic superiority of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(52025056)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(xzy012022062)。
文摘In recent years,intelligent data-driven prognostic methods have been successfully developed,and good machinery health assessment performance has been achieved through explorations of data from multiple sensors.However,existing datafusion prognostic approaches generally rely on the data availability of all sensors,and are vulnerable to potential sensor malfunctions,which are likely to occur in real industries especially for machines in harsh operating environments.In this paper,a deep learning-based remaining useful life(RUL)prediction method is proposed to address the sensor malfunction problem.A global feature extraction scheme is adopted to fully exploit information of different sensors.Adversarial learning is further introduced to extract generalized sensor-invariant features.Through explorations of both global and shared features,promising and robust RUL prediction performance can be achieved by the proposed method in the testing scenarios with sensor malfunctions.The experimental results suggest the proposed approach is well suited for real industrial applications.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922089)。
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.
基金funded by China Scholarship Council,The fund numbers are 202108320111,202208320055。
文摘Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage devices,for which the accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial to their reliable operation and accident prevention.This work thoroughly investigates the developmental trend of RUL prediction with machine learning(ML)algorithms based on the objective screening and statistics of related papers over the past decade to analyze the research core and find future improvement directions.The possibility of extending lithium-ion battery lifetime using RUL prediction results is also explored in this paper.The ten most used ML algorithms for RUL prediction are first identified in 380 relevant papers.Then the general flow of RUL prediction and an in-depth introduction to the four most used signal pre-processing techniques in RUL prediction are presented.The research core of common ML algorithms is given first time in a uniform format in chronological order.The algorithms are also compared from aspects of accuracy and characteristics comprehensively,and the novel and general improvement directions or opportunities including improvement in early prediction,local regeneration modeling,physical information fusion,generalized transfer learning,and hardware implementation are further outlooked.Finally,the methods of battery lifetime extension are summarized,and the feasibility of using RUL as an indicator for extending battery lifetime is outlooked.Battery lifetime can be extended by optimizing the charging profile serval times according to the accurate RUL prediction results online in the future.This paper aims to give inspiration to the future improvement of ML algorithms in battery RUL prediction and lifetime extension strategy.
基金the High-Performance Computing Platform of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(BUCT)for supporting this papersupported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JD2319)+2 种基金the CNOOC Technical Cooperation Project(ZX2022ZCTYF7612)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775029,52004014)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(XK2020-04)。
文摘A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922-089)the Basic Research Plan of Shaanxi Natural Science Foundation of China(2022JM-376).
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.
基金Shivaji University,Kolhapur for financial assistance through Research Strengthening Scheme。
文摘Supercapacitors are appealing energy storage devices for their promising features like high power density,outstanding cycling stability,and a quick charge–discharge cycle.The exceptional life cycle and ultimate power capability of supercapacitors are needed in the transportation and renewable energy generation sectors.Hence,predicting the capacitance and lifecycle of supercapacitors is significant for selecting the suitable material and planning replacement intervals for supercapacitors.In addition,system failures can be better addressed by accurately forecasting the lifecycle of SCs.Recently,the use of machine learning for performance prediction of energy storage materials has drawn increasing attention from researchers globally because of its superiority in prediction accuracy,time efficiency,and costeffectiveness.This article presents a detailed review of the progress and advancement of ML techniques for the prediction of capacitance and remaining useful life(RUL)of supercapacitors.The review starts with an introduction to supercapacitor materials and ML applications in energy storage devices,followed by workflow for ML model building for supercapacitor materials.Then,the summary of machine learning applications for the prediction of capacitance and RUL of different supercapacitor materials including EDLCs(carbon based materials),pesudocapacitive(oxides and composites)and hybrid materials is presented.Finally,the general perspective for future directions is also presented.
基金supported by Agency for Science,Technology and Research(A*STAR)under the Career Development Fund(C210112037)。
文摘Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium-ion batteries is critical for their large-scale deployment as energy storage devices in electric vehicles and stationary storage.A fundamental understanding of the factors affecting RUL is crucial for accelerating battery technology development.However,it is very challenging to predict RUL accurately because of complex degradation mechanisms occurring within the batteries,as well as dynamic operating conditions in practical applications.Moreover,due to insignificant capacity degradation in early stages,early prediction of battery life with early cycle data can be more difficult.In this paper,we propose a hybrid deep learning model for early prediction of battery RUL.The proposed method can effectively combine handcrafted features with domain knowledge and latent features learned by deep networks to boost the performance of RUL early prediction.We also design a non-linear correlation-based method to select effective domain knowledge-based features.Moreover,a novel snapshot ensemble learning strategy is proposed to further enhance model generalization ability without increasing any additional training cost.Our experimental results show that the proposed method not only outperforms other approaches in the primary test set having a similar distribution as the training set,but also generalizes well to the secondary test set having a clearly different distribution with the training set.The PyTorch implementation of our proposed approach is available at https://github.com/batteryrul/battery_rul_early_prediction.
基金The work in Section III was supported by the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.52025056,52005387)the work in Section IV was supported by the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.62233017,62073336).
文摘As the fundamental and key technique to ensure the safe and reliable operation of vital systems,prognostics with an emphasis on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction has attracted great attention in the last decades.In this paper,we briefly discuss the general idea and advances of various prognostics and RUL prediction methods for machinery,mainly including data-driven methods,physics-based methods,hybrid methods,etc.Based on the observations fromthe state of the art,we provide comprehensive discussions on the possible opportunities and challenges of prognostics and RUL prediction of machinery so as to steer the future development.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(7160118371901216)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)
文摘Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6129032461473164+1 种基金61490701)the Research Fund for the Taishan Scholar Project of Shandong Province of China(LZB2015-162)
文摘To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and these parts or components are working in the same environment, thus the degradations of these parts or components will be influenced by common factors. To describe such a phenomenon in degradations, a multi-degradation model with public noise is proposed. To identify the degradation states and the unknown parameters, an iterative estimation method is proposed by using the Kalman filter and the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm. Next, with known thresholds,the RUL of each degradation can be predicted by using the first hitting time(FHT). In addition, the RUL of the whole system can be obtained by a Copula function. Finally, a practical case is used to demonstrate the method proposed.
基金Project(61174115)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2013001)supported by Scientific Research Program of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52101343)the Aeronautical Science Foundation(ASFC)(No.201834S9002)Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development Special General Project(No.cstc2020jscx-msxm0411).
文摘In order to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy when only vibration or oil signal is used to predict the remaining life of gear wear,a gear wear life feature fusion prediction method based on temporal pattern attention mechanism is proposed.Firstly,deep residual shrinkage network(DRSN)is used to extract the features of the original vibration time series signals with low signal-tonoise ratio,and the vibration features associated with gear wear evolution are obtained.Secondly,the extracted vibration features and the oil monitoring data that can intuitively reflect the wear process information are jointly input into the bi-directional long short-term memory neural network based on temporal pattern attention mechanism(TPA-BiLSTM),the complex nonlinear relationship between vibration features,oil features and gear wear process evolution is further explored to improve the prediction accuracy.The gear life cycle dynamic response and wear process signals are obtained based on the gear numerical simulation model,and the feasibility of the proposed method is verified.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the residual life prediction of gear on a test bench,and the comparison between different methods proved the validity of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)
文摘For the large number of nonlinear degradation devices existing in a project, the existing methods have not systematically studied the effects of random effect on the remaining lifetime(RL),the accuracy and efficiency of the parameters estimation are not high, and the current degradation state of the target device is not accurately estimated. In this paper, a nonlinear Wiener degradation model with random effect is proposed and the corresponding probability density function(PDF) of the first hitting time(FHT)is deduced. A parameter estimation method based on modified expectation maximum(EM) algorithm is proposed to obtain the estimated value of fixed coefficient and the priori value of random coefficient in the model. The posterior value of the random coefficient and the current degradation state of target device are updated synchronously by the state space model(SSM) and the Kalman filter algorithm. The PDF of RL with random effect is deduced. A simulation example is analyzed to verify that the proposed method has the obvious advantage over the existing methods in parameter estimation error and RL prediction accuracy.
基金Supported by U.K.EPSRC Platform Grant(Grant No.EP/P027121/1).
文摘The remaining useful life(RUL)of a system is generally predicted by utilising the data collected from the sensors that continuously monitor different indicators.Recently,different deep learning(DL)techniques have been used for RUL prediction and achieved great success.Because the data is often time-sequential,recurrent neural network(RNN)has attracted significant interests due to its efficiency in dealing with such data.This paper systematically reviews RNN and its variants for RUL prediction,with a specific focus on understanding how different components(e.g.,types of optimisers and activation functions)or parameters(e.g.,sequence length,neuron quantities)affect their performance.After that,a case study using the well-studied NASA’s C-MAPSS dataset is presented to quantitatively evaluate the influence of various state-of-the-art RNN structures on the RUL prediction performance.The result suggests that the variant methods usually perform better than the original RNN,and among which,Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory generally has the best performance in terms of stability,precision and accuracy.Certain model structures may fail to produce valid RUL prediction result due to the gradient vanishing or gradient exploring problem if the parameters are not chosen appropriately.It is concluded that parameter tuning is a crucial step to achieve optimal prediction performance.
基金supported by National Research Foundation of Singapore,AME Young Individual Research Grant(A2084c0167)。
文摘Accurate remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is important in industrial systems.It prevents machines from working under failure conditions,and ensures that the industrial system works reliably and efficiently.Recently,many deep learning based methods have been proposed to predict RUL.Among these methods,recurrent neural network(RNN)based approaches show a strong capability of capturing sequential information.This allows RNN based methods to perform better than convolutional neural network(CNN)based approaches on the RUL prediction task.In this paper,we question this common paradigm and argue that existing CNN based approaches are not designed according to the classic principles of CNN,which reduces their performances.Additionally,the capacity of capturing sequential information is highly affected by the receptive field of CNN,which is neglected by existing CNN based methods.To solve these problems,we propose a series of new CNNs,which show competitive results to RNN based methods.Compared with RNN,CNN processes the input signals in parallel so that the temporal sequence is not easily determined.To alleviate this issue,a position encoding scheme is developed to enhance the sequential information encoded by a CNN.Hence,our proposed position encoding based CNN called PE-Net is further improved and even performs better than RNN based methods.Extensive experiments are conducted on the C-MAPSS dataset,where our PE-Net shows state-of-the-art performance.
文摘The key to failure prevention for aero-engine lies in performance prediction and the exhaust gas temperature margin(EGTM)is used as the most important degradation parameter to obtain the operating performance of the aero-engine.Because of the complex environment interference,EGTM always has strong randomness,and the state space based degradation model can identify the noisy observation from the true degradation state,which is more close to the actual situations.Therefore,a state space model based on EGTM is established to describe the degradation path and predict the remaining useful life(RUL).As one of the most effective methods for both linear state estimation and parameter estimation,Kalman filter(KF)is applied.Firstly,with EGTM degradation data,state space model approach is used to set up a state space model for aero-engine.Secondly,RUL of aero-engine is analyzed,and expected RUL and distribution of RUL are determined.Finally,the sate space model and KF algorithm are applied to an example of CFM-56aero-engine.The expected RUL is predicted,and corresponding probability density distribution(PDF)and cumulative distribution function(CDF)are given.The result indicates that the accuracy of RUL prediction reaches 7.76%ahead 580 flight cycles(FC),which is more accurate than linear regression,and therefore shows the validity and rationality of the proposed method.
文摘A method is proposed to improve the accuracy of remaining useful life prediction for rolling element bearings,based on a state space model(SSM)with different degradation stages and a particle filter.The model is improved by a method based on the Paris formula and the Foreman formula allowing the establishment of different degradation stages.The remaining useful life of rolling element bearings can be predicted by the adjusted model with inputs of physical data and operating status information.The late operating trend is predicted by the use of the particle filter algorithm.The rolling bearing full life experimental data validate the proposed method.Further,the prediction result is compared with the single SSM and the Gamma model,and the results indicate that the predicted accuracy of the proposed method is higher with better practicability.
