Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runo...Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.展开更多
Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable dev...Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable development in the future. In this paper, the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area, China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set(CMADS) and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters. On this basis, runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted. Our research shows that:(1) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17% and 10.83%, respectively. Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River.(2) In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model, the average temperature increased by0.61, 1.09 and 1.74 C, respectively, in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050. Average precipitation increased by 14.36, 66.88, and 142.73 mm, respectively, and runoff increased by 15, 24, and 35 million m3, respectively.The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.展开更多
基金This project is supported by the Major Science and Technology Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China(ZDZX2018054)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067013).
文摘Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41867030,41971036)the key Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(23JRRA698)+2 种基金the key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(22YF7NA122)the Oasis Scientific Research achievements Breakthrough Action Plan Project of Northwest normal University(NWNU-LZKX-202302)the cultivation Plan Project of the Major(key)Project of Northwest normal University.
文摘Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable development in the future. In this paper, the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area, China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set(CMADS) and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters. On this basis, runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted. Our research shows that:(1) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17% and 10.83%, respectively. Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River.(2) In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model, the average temperature increased by0.61, 1.09 and 1.74 C, respectively, in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050. Average precipitation increased by 14.36, 66.88, and 142.73 mm, respectively, and runoff increased by 15, 24, and 35 million m3, respectively.The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.
