Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the pre...Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.展开更多
The safety valve is an important component to ensure the safe operation of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the effect of safety valve type on the thermal runaway(TR)and gas venting behavior of LIBs,as well as the ...The safety valve is an important component to ensure the safe operation of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the effect of safety valve type on the thermal runaway(TR)and gas venting behavior of LIBs,as well as the TR hazard severity of LIBs,are not known.In this paper,the TR and gas venting behavior of three 100 A h lithium iron phosphate(LFP)batteries with different safety valves are investigated under overheating.Compared to previous studies,the main contribution of this work is in studying and evaluating the effect of gas venting behavior and TR hazard severity of LFP batteries with three safety valve types.Two significant results are obtained:(Ⅰ)the safety valve type dominates over gas venting pressure of battery during safety venting,the maximum gas venting pressure of LFP batteries with a round safety valve is 3320 Pa,which is one order of magnitude higher than other batteries with oval or cavity safety valve;(Ⅱ)the LFP battery with oval safety valve has the lowest TR hazard as shown by the TR hazard assessment model based on gray-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.This study reveals the effect of safety valve type on TR and gas venting,providing a clear direction for the safety valve design.展开更多
Chronic heart failure(CHF)is a clinical syndrome manifested by reduced pumping ability of the heart,increased pressure in heart chambers in both physical activity and at rest.The symptoms of this syndrome are dyspnea,...Chronic heart failure(CHF)is a clinical syndrome manifested by reduced pumping ability of the heart,increased pressure in heart chambers in both physical activity and at rest.The symptoms of this syndrome are dyspnea,undue fatigability,peripheral edema,which follow structural and functional changes of the myocardium.[1]The growing incidence of CHF,especially among elderly people,is an urgent problem for medicine in the vast majority of industrialized countries.For instance,in Russian Federation,CHF is diagnosed in about 7%of cardiovascular patients.At the same time,this indicator varies from 0.3%in young people(20-29 years old)to 70%in the older age group.[2,3].展开更多
Acute pancreatitis(AP)is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas,with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease.Diagnosis,severity prediction,and prognosis assessment of...Acute pancreatitis(AP)is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas,with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease.Diagnosis,severity prediction,and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies,such as computed tomography,magnetic resonance imaging,and ultrasound,and scoring systems,including Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II,and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores.Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity,while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications.Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild,moderate,or severe categories,guiding treatment decisions,such as intensive care unit admission,early enteral feeding,and antibiotic use.Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management,these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy,reproducibility,practicality and economics.Recent advancements of artificial intelligence(AI)provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data.AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data,identify scoring system patterns,and predict the clinical course of disease.AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP,but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application.In addition,understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately,sensitively,and specifically be used in the diagnosis,severity prediction,and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.展开更多
BACKGROUND Bacteremia,which is a major cause of mortality in patients with acute cholangitis,induces hyperactive immune response and mitochondrial dysfunction.Presepsin is responsible for pathogen recognition by innat...BACKGROUND Bacteremia,which is a major cause of mortality in patients with acute cholangitis,induces hyperactive immune response and mitochondrial dysfunction.Presepsin is responsible for pathogen recognition by innate immunity.Acylcarnitines are established mitochondrial biomarkers.AIM To clarify the early predictive value of presepsin and acylcarnitines as biomarkers of severity of acute cholangitis and the need for biliary drainage.METHODS Of 280 patients with acute cholangitis were included and the severity was stratified according to the Tokyo Guidelines 2018.Blood presepsin and plasma acylcarnitines were tested at enrollment by chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry,respectively.RESULTS The concentrations of presepsin,procalcitonin,short-and medium-chain acylcarnitines increased,while long-chain acylcarnitines decreased with the severity of acute cholangitis.The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves(AUC)of presepsin for diagnosing moderate/severe and severe cholangitis(0.823 and 0.801,respectively)were greater than those of conventional markers.The combination of presepsin,direct bilirubin,alanine aminotransferase,temperature,and butyryl-L-carnitine showed good predictive ability for biliary drainage(AUC:0.723).Presepsin,procalcitonin,acetyl-L-carnitine,hydroxydodecenoyl-Lcarnitine,and temperature were independent predictors of bloodstream infection.After adjusting for severity classification,acetyl-L-carnitine was the only acylcarnitine independently associated with 28-d mortality(hazard ratio 14.396;P<0.001)(AUC:0.880).Presepsin concentration showed positive correlation with direct bilirubin or acetyl-L-carnitine.CONCLUSION Presepsin could serve as a specific biomarker to predict the severity of acute cholangitis and need for biliary drainage.Acetyl-L-carnitine is a potential prognostic factor for patients with acute cholangitis.Innate immune response was associated with mitochondrial metabolic dysfunction in acute cholangitis.展开更多
Fire severity classifications determine fire damage and regeneration potential in post-fire areas for effective implementation of restoration applications.Since fire damage varies according to vegetation and fire char...Fire severity classifications determine fire damage and regeneration potential in post-fire areas for effective implementation of restoration applications.Since fire damage varies according to vegetation and fire characteristics,regional assessment of fire severity is crucial.The objectives of this study were:(1)to test the performance of different satellite imagery and spectral indices,and two field—measured severity indices,CBI(Composite Burn Index)and GeoCBI(Geometrically structured Composite Burn Index)to assess fire severity;(2)to calculate classification thresholds for spectral indices that performed best in the study areas;and(3)to generate fire severity maps that could be used to determine the ecological impact of forest fires.Five large fires in Pinus brutia(Turkish pine)and Pinus nigra subsp.pallasiana var.pallasiana(Anatolian black pine)—dominated forests during 2020 and 2021 were selected as study sites.The results show that GeoCBI provided more reliable estimates of field—measured fire severity than CBI.While Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8/OLI images performed similarly well,MODIS performed poorly.Fire severity classification thresholds were determined for Sentinel-2 based RdNBR,dNBR,dSAVI,dNDVI,and dNDMI and Landsat-8/OLI based dNBR,dNDVI,and dSAVI.Among several spectral indices,the highest accuracy for fire severity classification was found for Sentinel-2 based RdNBR(72.1%)and Landsat-8/OLI based dNBR(69.2%).The results can be used to assess and map fire severity in forest ecosystems similar to those in this study.展开更多
Objective:Fournier’s gangrene is a rare but life-threatening infection disease with high mortality rate.The quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)is a new and simpler scoring system that may identify pa...Objective:Fournier’s gangrene is a rare but life-threatening infection disease with high mortality rate.The quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)is a new and simpler scoring system that may identify patients with suspected infection who are at greater risk for a poor outcome.The purpose of this study was to find out role of qSOFA in determining prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene patients.Methods:This study is a case control with retrospective review of Fournier’s gangrene patients treated at Hasan Sadikin Hospital from January 2013 to December 2017 who met inclusion criteria.Participants were divided into two groups according to qSOFA score as high qSOFA(2-3)and low qSOFA(0-1).Results:From 69 patients,the mortality rate was 24.6%.The sensitivity of qSOFA score to predict mortality was 88.2%;the specificity was 94.2%;positive predictive value was 83.3%;negative predictive value was 96.1%;positive likelihood ratio was 15.2;negative likelihood ratio was 0.12;and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of qSOFA was 94.2%.There was significant association between qSOFA scale and mortality with p-value of 0.0001.The qSOFA score has strong positive correlation with Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index(p<0.0001,r=0.704).Conclusion:qSOFA scoring system has a high prognostic value and can be used to determine prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene patients.展开更多
Introduction: COVID-19 is an infectious disease that has been causing a global pandemic since 2019. Although clinical forms are generally less severe in children than in adults, children nevertheless present polymorph...Introduction: COVID-19 is an infectious disease that has been causing a global pandemic since 2019. Although clinical forms are generally less severe in children than in adults, children nevertheless present polymorphous clinical forms and severe cases that can lead to death. Objective: To describe the clinical presentations found in the different waves of COVID-19, and to highlight the different factors of severity. Materials and Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study with retrospective and prospective data collection which lasted 7 months (from November 2021 to June 2022) and covered a study period from 6 March 2020 to 22 June 2022, i.e. 27 months. All patients aged 0 to 18 years, suspected of having COVID-19, confirmed by real-time RT-PCR or an antigenic Rapid Diagnostic Test or antibody were included. These patients were to be managed in the Mother and Child Centre of the Chantal Biya Foundation, as well as in the Specialised Centre for the Management of COVID patients, annex number II of the Yaoundé Central Hospital. The results were analysed using IBM SPSS.23 software. Results: We included 163 patients in our study. No paediatric patients were registered during the 3<sup>rd</sup> wave. The mean age of the patients in the study population was 13 ± 5 years with extremes from 15 days to 18 years. We had a female predominance with a sex ratio of 0.83. The most common comorbidity was asthma. The first wave presented mainly with respiratory symptoms such as dry cough and signs of respiratory distress. The second wave presented mainly with digestive symptoms such as diarrhoea, abdominal pain and vomiting. The fourth wave presented with ENT signs such as sore throat, and rhinorrhea. Factors associated with severity were mainly age less than five years (OR = 17.69), vomiting (OR = 6.50), presence of comorbidities (OR = 3.39), and alteration of vital parameters such as bradypnoea (OR = 19.68), bradycardia (OR = 6.34), tachycardia (OR = 3.73), oxygen saturation Conclusion: Clinical presentations varied between waves and the main risk factor was age under 5 years. The fourth wave was less severe than the second wave, which in turn was less severe than the first. (4<sup>th</sup> <sup>nd</sup> <sup>st</sup>) which allows us to humbly recommend more screening for patients under 18 years of age with respiratory, ENT and digestive signs and special attention for those under 5 years of age.展开更多
BACKGROUND Compared with patients with other causes of acute pancreatitis,those with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis(HTG-AP)are more likely to develop persistent organ failure(POF).Therefore,recognizin...BACKGROUND Compared with patients with other causes of acute pancreatitis,those with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis(HTG-AP)are more likely to develop persistent organ failure(POF).Therefore,recognizing the individuals at risk of developing POF early in the HTG-AP process is a vital for improving outcomes.Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP),a simple parameter that is obtained 24 h after admission,is an ideal index to predict HTG-AP severity;however,the suboptimal sensitivity limits its clinical application.Hence,current clinical scoring systems and biochemical parameters are not sufficient for predicting HTG-AP severity.AIM To elucidate the early predictive value of red cell distribution width(RDW)for POF in HTG-AP.METHODS In total,102 patients with HTG-AP were retrospectively enrolled.Demographic and clinical data,including RDW,were collected from all patients on admission.RESULTS Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification,37(33%)of 102 patients with HTG-AP were diagnosed with POF.On admission,RDW was significantly higher in patients with HTG-AP and POF than in those without POF(14.4%vs 12.5%,P<0.001).The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated a good discrim-inative power of RDW for POF with a cutoff of 13.1%,where the area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity were 0.85,82.4%,and 77.9%,respectively.When the RDW was≥13.1%and one point was added to the original BISAP to obtain a new BISAP score,we achieved a higher AUC,sensitivity,and specificity of 0.89,91.2%,and 67.6%,respectively.CONCLUSION RDW is a promising predictor of POF in patients with HTG-AP,and the addition of RDW can promote the sensitivity of BISAP.展开更多
The world’s agricultural production suffers huge losses estimated between 20% and 40% annually. 40% to 50% of such losses are due to pest and diseases which cause significant economic losses every year. Precise asses...The world’s agricultural production suffers huge losses estimated between 20% and 40% annually. 40% to 50% of such losses are due to pest and diseases which cause significant economic losses every year. Precise assessment of severity is crucial for suitable management of crop diseases. It helps famers to avoid yield losses, reduce production costs, ensure good disease management and so on. This paper is a review of plant diseases severity estimation solutions proposed by researchers the last few years and based on Image Processing Techniques (IPT), classical Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. The analysis of these solutions has allowed us to identify their limitations and potential challenges in plant disease severity assessment.展开更多
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is continuing.The disease most commonly affects the lungs.Since the beginning of the pandemic thorax computed tomography(CT)has been an indispensable imaging m...BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is continuing.The disease most commonly affects the lungs.Since the beginning of the pandemic thorax computed tomography(CT)has been an indispensable imaging method for diagnosis and follow-up.The disease is tried to be controlled with vaccines.Vaccination reduces the possibility of a severe course of the disease.AIM The aim of this study is to investigate whether the vaccination status of patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 has an effect on the CT severity score(CT-SS)and CORADS score obtained during hospitalization.METHODS The files of patients hospitalized between April 1,2021 and April 1,2022 due to COVID-19 were retrospectively reviewed.A total of 224 patients who were older than 18 years of age,whose vaccination status was accessible,whose severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction result was positive,and who had a Thorax CT scan during hospitalization were included in the study.RESULTS Among the patients included in the study,52.2%were female and the mean age was 61.85 years.The patients applied to the hospital on the average 7th day of their complaints.While 63 patients were unvaccinated(Group 1),20 were vaccinated with a single dose of CoronaVac(Group 2),24 with a single dose of BioNTech(Group 3),38 with 2 doses of CoronaVac(Group 4),40 with 2 doses of BioNTech(Group 5),and 39 with 3 doses of vaccine(2 doses of CoronaVac followed by a single dose of BioNTech,Group 6).CT-SS ranged from 5 to 23,with a mean of 12.17.RESULTS CT-SS mean of the groups were determined as 14.17,13.35,11.58,10.87,11.28,10.85,respectively.Accordingly,as a result of the comparisons between the groups,the CT-SS levels of the unvaccinated patients found to be significantly higher than the other groups.As the vaccination rates increased,the rate of typical COVID-19 findings on CT was found to be significantly lower.CONCLUSION Increased vaccination rates in COVID-19 patients reduce the probability of typical COVID-19 symptoms in the lungs.It also reduces the risk of severe disease and decreases CT Severity Scores.This may lead to a loss of importance of Thorax CT in the diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia as the end of the pandemic approaches.展开更多
Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, triglyceride-glucose-BMI (TyG-BMI) index, laboratory indices, and disease severity in patients w...Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, triglyceride-glucose-BMI (TyG-BMI) index, laboratory indices, and disease severity in patients with COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 patients treated at a tertiary hospital in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province, China, from 1 May to 31 May 2023 was performed. The patients were divided into two groups: 66 cases in the moderate group and 61 cases in the severe group. Additionally, 69 uninfected individuals from the medical examination center during the same period were selected as the control group. Spearman rank correlation was used to determine the correlation between the indices and COVID-19 severity. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors affecting COVID-19 severity. ROC curves were constructed to assess the predictive value of the TyG and TyG-BMI indices for severe COVID-19. Results: There were significant differences in smoking and diabetes between the three groups (P Conclusion: Smoking, AST, ALB, TyG index, and TyG-BMI index are valuable in assessing the severity of COVID-19, with the TyG-BMI index having a higher predictive value than the TyG index.展开更多
Rationale: In the literature, some risk factors for severity and mortality from COVID-19 have been indicated. However, these factors can change, depending on the characteristics of the population and health services. ...Rationale: In the literature, some risk factors for severity and mortality from COVID-19 have been indicated. However, these factors can change, depending on the characteristics of the population and health services. In this sense, longitudinal studies can be useful for understanding local realities and subsidizing health actions based on these realities. Objective: To analyze the risk factors for severity and death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized from August 1 to October 16, 2021 (3<sup>rd</sup> wave of the pandemic), notified by the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance of Sao Tome and Principe. We employed measures of strength of associations for the analysis of exposure risk factors. Results: We analyzed 110 hospitalized patients (31.8% severe-critical and 68.2% non-severe). The risk factors for severe forms of COVID-19 were: being aged ≥60 years (RR = 3.3), being male (RR = 2), having comorbidities (RR = 2) and the risk increases to 10-fold for multicomorbidities, with emphasis on obesity, neoplasia, skin-muscle-surgical infection, dementia and to some degree CVD. 62.9% of patients with severe forms of the disease were not vaccinated. Risk factors for death among hospitalized and severe/critical cases, respectively, were having comorbidities (RR = 8 and 2.4) multicomorbidities (RR = 10 and 2.8 for those with 2 comorbidities and RR = 33.3 and 4 for those with 3 or 4 comorbidities), especially diabetes, dementia, neoplasia, cutaneous-muscular infection, and obesity. Although CVD was not associated with risk factors for death, these were the most frequently found among the severely hospitalized and deaths. In addition, important risk factors associated with death were not using corticoids (RR = 3.3, 230-fold risk) and not using anticoagulants-heparin (RR = 1.3, 30% risk) more compared to the severe cases that did use them. Most of the patients who died (63.2%) were not vaccinated. Moreover, having only 1 dose of the vaccine was a risk factor 1.9 times more for death among all hospitalized patients, but in the severe cases, there was no association between the variable vaccination and death. Among those hospitalized with 2 doses, it was a 0.5-fold protective factor among those hospitalized. The Delta variant of Sarscov-2 was the one found among severe cases and deaths investigated by genetic sequencing, with more exuberant clinical features compared to the other 2 previous vaccinations. Conclusion: Being elderly, male and presenting comorbidities, mainly multicomorbidities were the main characteristics associated with severity of COVID-19. On the other hand, comorbidities, and even worse, multicomorbidities, hospitalization for respiratory failure, lowered level of consciousness, no use of corticoid and no use of anticoagulation in critically ill patients, and not having at least 2 doses of vaccine for covid-19, were characteristics associated with death by COVID-19. These results will help inform healthcare providers so that the best interventions can be implemented to improve outcomes for patients with COVID-19. Public health interventions must be carefully tailored and implemented in these susceptible groups to reduce the risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19 and then the risk of major complications. Intensive and regular follow-up is needed to detect early occurrences of clinical conditions.展开更多
An important issue in analyzing accident blackspots is the estimation of severity levels of different types of accidents.This study aims to estimate the severity level of accidents in Bahrain using crash costs.These c...An important issue in analyzing accident blackspots is the estimation of severity levels of different types of accidents.This study aims to estimate the severity level of accidents in Bahrain using crash costs.These crash costs were calculated by the Human Capital Approach(HCA)and total reported costs from the victims.The data was collected from the General Directorate of Traffic,insurance companies,Ministry of Works(MoW)and Ministry of Health.It was found,from the survey responses,that there was no significant effect of victim characteristics on the total cost of the accidents.The severity levels were found to be higher than those found in previous literature or adopted by local authorities which could be attributed to the economic conditions of Bahrain.Moreover,the weights found by both approaches were different from each other.Therefore,it is recommended to use the HCA approach due to its comprehensive calculations involving future costs.展开更多
Objective:To identify the association between serum albumin levels and disease severity among adult patients with dengue in China's Mainland.Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed the data of adult patie...Objective:To identify the association between serum albumin levels and disease severity among adult patients with dengue in China's Mainland.Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed the data of adult patients(aged≥18 years)hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed dengue in a tertiary center for infectious diseases from 2013 to 2019 in China's Mainland.Serum albumin levels were estimated and compared between patients with severe dengue and non-severe dengue.Additionally,the association between serum albumin levels and severe dengue was evaluated using a generalized linear model[relative risks(RR)].Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the potential predictors of severe dengue.Results:Overall,1568 patients were included in this study.Of these patients,34(2.17%)developed severe dengue.The median serum albumin levels were significantly lower in patients with severe dengue than that in those with non-severe dengue(33 g/L vs.37 g/L,P<0.001).After adjustment for age,sex,and comorbidities,hypoalbuminemia(RR 4.877,95%CI 2.193-11.461,P<0.001)was found to be a predictor of severe dengue.Serum albumin levels(OR 1.303,95%CI 1.161-1.462,P<0.001)and age(OR 1.038,95%CI 1.017-1.061,P<0.001)were significant risk factors for severe dengue.The area under the curve for serum albumin levels to distinguish severe dengue was 0.787.Conclusions:Lower serum albumin levels were significantly associated with disease severity in adult patients with dengue.Hypoalbuminemia on admission resulted in at least a four-fold increased risk of severe dengue.展开更多
BACKGROUND: Although pneumonia severity index(PSI) is widely used to evaluate the severity of community-acquired pneumonia(CAP), the calculation of PSI is very complicated. The present study aimed to evaluate the role...BACKGROUND: Although pneumonia severity index(PSI) is widely used to evaluate the severity of community-acquired pneumonia(CAP), the calculation of PSI is very complicated. The present study aimed to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) in predicting the severity of CAP.METHODS: For 202 patients with CAP admitted to the emergency department, BNP levels, cardiac load indexes, inf lammatory indexes including C-reactive protein(CRP), white blood cell count(WBC), and PSI were detected. The correlation between the indexes and PSI was investigated. BNP levels for survivor and non-survivor groups were compared, and a receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve analysis was performed on the BNP levels versus PSI.RESULTS: The BNP levels increased with CAP severity(r=0.782, P<0.001). The BNP levels of the high-risk group(PSI classes IV and V) were signifi cantly higher than those of the low-risk group(PSI classes I–III)(P<0.001). The BNP levels were signifi cantly higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group(P<0.001). In addition, there were positive correlations between BNP levels and PSI scores(r=0.782, P<0.001). The BNP level was highly accurate in predicting the severity of CAP(AUC=0.952). The optimal cut-off point of BNP level for distinguishing high-risk patients from low-risk ones was 125.0 pg/m L, with a sensitivity of 0.891 and a specifi city of 0.946. Moreover, BNP level was accurate in predicting mortality(AUC=0.823). Its optimal cut-off point for predicting death was 299.0 pg/m L, with a sensitivity of 0.675 and a specifi city of 0.816. Its negative predictive cut-off value was 0.926, and the positive predictive cut-off value was 0.426.CONCLUSION: BNP level is positively correlated with the severity of CAP, and may be used as a biomarker for evaluating the severity of CAP.展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP) is an inflammatory disorder of the pancreas with an unpredictable course of illness. A major challenge of AP is the early identification of patients at high-risk for organ failure and...BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP) is an inflammatory disorder of the pancreas with an unpredictable course of illness. A major challenge of AP is the early identification of patients at high-risk for organ failure and death. However, scoring systems are complicated and time consuming, and the predictive values for the clinical course are vague.AIM To determine whether the dynamic changes in presepsin levels can be used to evaluate the severity of disease and outcome of AP.METHODS In this multicentric cohort study, 133 patients with AP were included. Clinical severity was dynamically evaluated using the 2012 revised Atlanta Classification. Blood presepsin levels were measured at days 1, 3, 5 and 7 after admission by chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay.RESULTS The median concentration of presepsin increased and the clearance rate of presepsin decreased with disease severity and organ failure in AP patients. The presepsin levels on days 3, 5 and 7 were independent predictors of moderately severe and severe AP with time-specific area under the curve(AUC) values of 0.827, 0.848 and 0.867, respectively. The presepsin levels positively correlated with bedside index of severity in AP, Ranson, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, computed tomography severity index and Marshall scores. Presepsin levels on days 3, 5 and 7 were independent predictors of 28-d mortality of AP patients with AUC values of 0.781, 0.846 and 0.843, respectively.CONCLUSION Blood presepsin levels within 7 d of admission were associated with and may be useful to dynamically predict the severity of disease course and 28-d mortality in AP patients.展开更多
A spatial analysis of drought characteristics in the Limpopo basin is undertaken to evaluate its regional implications to water management challenges. In this study, drought duration, frequency and severity are invest...A spatial analysis of drought characteristics in the Limpopo basin is undertaken to evaluate its regional implications to water management challenges. In this study, drought duration, frequency and severity are investigated. In addition drought Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves were constructed. The entire Limpopo River Basin is subdivided into four homogeneous regions based on topographic and climate variations in the basin, which was constructed with the K-Means Clustering algorithm. Using the medium range time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought for each homogeneous region, monthly and annual SAF curves and maps of probability of drought occurrence were produced. The results indicated localized severe droughts in higher frequencies compared to moderate to severe low frequency droughts spread over wider areas in the basin. The approach can be used to develop improved drought indicators to assess the relationship between drought hazard and vulnerability and to enhance the performance of methods currently used for drought forecasting. In general, this preliminary investigation reveals that the western part of the basin will face a higher risk of drought when compared to other regions of the Limpopo Basin in terms of the medium-term drought patterns. The Limpopo Basin is water stressed and livelihood challenges remain high, thus impacts of droughts and related resilience options should be taken into account in the formulation of regional sustainable water resources development strategies.展开更多
Recent diagnostic and therapeutic progress for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)remarkably decreased the casemortality rate.To further decrease the mortality rate of SAP,it is important to precisely evaluate the severity...Recent diagnostic and therapeutic progress for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)remarkably decreased the casemortality rate.To further decrease the mortality rate of SAP,it is important to precisely evaluate the severity at an early stage,and initiate appropriate treatment as early as possible.Research Committee of Intractable Diseases of the Pancreas in Japan developed simpler criteria combining routinely available data with clinical signs.Severity can be evaluated by laboratory examinations or by clinical signs,reducing the defect values of the severity factors.Moreover,the severity criteria considered laboratory/clinical severity scores and contrastenhanced computed tomography(CE-CT)findings as independent risk factors.Thus,CE-CT scans are not necessarily required to evaluate the severity of acute pancreatitis.There was no fatal case in mild AP diagnosed by the CE-CT severity score,whereas case-mortality rate in those with SAP was 14.8%.Case-mortality of SAP that fulfilled both the laboratory/clinical and the CE-CT severity criteria was 30.8%.It is recommended,therefore,to perform CE-CT examination to clarify the prognosis in those patients who were diagnosed as SAP by laboratory/clinical severity criteria.Because the mortality rate of these patients with SAP is high,such patients should be transferred to advanced medical units.展开更多
AIM:To investigate the prognostic usefulness of several existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis(AP).METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected clinical database f...AIM:To investigate the prognostic usefulness of several existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis(AP).METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected clinical database from consecutive patients with AP in our institution between January 2011 and December 2012.Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)-Ⅱ,and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)scores,and computed tomography severity index(CTSI)of all patients were calculated.Serum C-reactive protein(CRP)levels were measured at admission(CRPi)and after 24h(CRP24).Severe AP was defined as persistent organ failure for more than 48 h.The predictive accuracy of each scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver-operating curve(AUC).RESULTS:Of 161 patients,21(13%)were classified as severe AP,and 3(1.9%)died.Statistically significant cutoff values for prediction of severe AP were Ranson≥3,BISAP≥2,APACHE-Ⅱ≥8,CTSI≥3,and CRP24≥21.4.AUCs for Ranson,BISAP,APACHE-Ⅱ,CTSI,and CRP24 in predicting severe AP were 0.69(95%CI:0.62-0.76),0.74(95%CI:0.66-0.80),0.78(95%CI:0.70-0.84),0.69(95%CI:0.61-0.76),and0.68(95%CI:0.57-0.78),respectively.APACHE-Ⅱdemonstrated the highest accuracy for prediction of severe AP,however,no statistically significant pairwise differences were observed between APACHE-Ⅱand the other scoring systems,including CRP24.CONCLUSION:Various scoring systems showed similar predictive accuracy for severity of AP.Unique models are needed in order to achieve further improvement of prognostic accuracy.展开更多
文摘Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB2402001)the Postgraduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Practice Project of Anhui Province(No.2022cxcysj013)+2 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2022T150615)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.WK5290000002)supported by Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS(No.Y201768)。
文摘The safety valve is an important component to ensure the safe operation of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the effect of safety valve type on the thermal runaway(TR)and gas venting behavior of LIBs,as well as the TR hazard severity of LIBs,are not known.In this paper,the TR and gas venting behavior of three 100 A h lithium iron phosphate(LFP)batteries with different safety valves are investigated under overheating.Compared to previous studies,the main contribution of this work is in studying and evaluating the effect of gas venting behavior and TR hazard severity of LFP batteries with three safety valve types.Two significant results are obtained:(Ⅰ)the safety valve type dominates over gas venting pressure of battery during safety venting,the maximum gas venting pressure of LFP batteries with a round safety valve is 3320 Pa,which is one order of magnitude higher than other batteries with oval or cavity safety valve;(Ⅱ)the LFP battery with oval safety valve has the lowest TR hazard as shown by the TR hazard assessment model based on gray-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.This study reveals the effect of safety valve type on TR and gas venting,providing a clear direction for the safety valve design.
文摘Chronic heart failure(CHF)is a clinical syndrome manifested by reduced pumping ability of the heart,increased pressure in heart chambers in both physical activity and at rest.The symptoms of this syndrome are dyspnea,undue fatigability,peripheral edema,which follow structural and functional changes of the myocardium.[1]The growing incidence of CHF,especially among elderly people,is an urgent problem for medicine in the vast majority of industrialized countries.For instance,in Russian Federation,CHF is diagnosed in about 7%of cardiovascular patients.At the same time,this indicator varies from 0.3%in young people(20-29 years old)to 70%in the older age group.[2,3].
基金Fujian Provincial Health Technology Project,No.2020GGA079Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province,No.2021J011380National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.62276146.
文摘Acute pancreatitis(AP)is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas,with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease.Diagnosis,severity prediction,and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies,such as computed tomography,magnetic resonance imaging,and ultrasound,and scoring systems,including Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II,and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores.Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity,while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications.Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild,moderate,or severe categories,guiding treatment decisions,such as intensive care unit admission,early enteral feeding,and antibiotic use.Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management,these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy,reproducibility,practicality and economics.Recent advancements of artificial intelligence(AI)provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data.AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data,identify scoring system patterns,and predict the clinical course of disease.AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP,but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application.In addition,understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately,sensitively,and specifically be used in the diagnosis,severity prediction,and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81773931Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals’ Youth Program,No.QML20170105Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support "Yangfan" Project,No.ZYLX201804
文摘BACKGROUND Bacteremia,which is a major cause of mortality in patients with acute cholangitis,induces hyperactive immune response and mitochondrial dysfunction.Presepsin is responsible for pathogen recognition by innate immunity.Acylcarnitines are established mitochondrial biomarkers.AIM To clarify the early predictive value of presepsin and acylcarnitines as biomarkers of severity of acute cholangitis and the need for biliary drainage.METHODS Of 280 patients with acute cholangitis were included and the severity was stratified according to the Tokyo Guidelines 2018.Blood presepsin and plasma acylcarnitines were tested at enrollment by chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry,respectively.RESULTS The concentrations of presepsin,procalcitonin,short-and medium-chain acylcarnitines increased,while long-chain acylcarnitines decreased with the severity of acute cholangitis.The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves(AUC)of presepsin for diagnosing moderate/severe and severe cholangitis(0.823 and 0.801,respectively)were greater than those of conventional markers.The combination of presepsin,direct bilirubin,alanine aminotransferase,temperature,and butyryl-L-carnitine showed good predictive ability for biliary drainage(AUC:0.723).Presepsin,procalcitonin,acetyl-L-carnitine,hydroxydodecenoyl-Lcarnitine,and temperature were independent predictors of bloodstream infection.After adjusting for severity classification,acetyl-L-carnitine was the only acylcarnitine independently associated with 28-d mortality(hazard ratio 14.396;P<0.001)(AUC:0.880).Presepsin concentration showed positive correlation with direct bilirubin or acetyl-L-carnitine.CONCLUSION Presepsin could serve as a specific biomarker to predict the severity of acute cholangitis and need for biliary drainage.Acetyl-L-carnitine is a potential prognostic factor for patients with acute cholangitis.Innate immune response was associated with mitochondrial metabolic dysfunction in acute cholangitis.
基金funded by the Turkish General Directorate of Forestry(project number:19.9402/2020-2023)。
文摘Fire severity classifications determine fire damage and regeneration potential in post-fire areas for effective implementation of restoration applications.Since fire damage varies according to vegetation and fire characteristics,regional assessment of fire severity is crucial.The objectives of this study were:(1)to test the performance of different satellite imagery and spectral indices,and two field—measured severity indices,CBI(Composite Burn Index)and GeoCBI(Geometrically structured Composite Burn Index)to assess fire severity;(2)to calculate classification thresholds for spectral indices that performed best in the study areas;and(3)to generate fire severity maps that could be used to determine the ecological impact of forest fires.Five large fires in Pinus brutia(Turkish pine)and Pinus nigra subsp.pallasiana var.pallasiana(Anatolian black pine)—dominated forests during 2020 and 2021 were selected as study sites.The results show that GeoCBI provided more reliable estimates of field—measured fire severity than CBI.While Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8/OLI images performed similarly well,MODIS performed poorly.Fire severity classification thresholds were determined for Sentinel-2 based RdNBR,dNBR,dSAVI,dNDVI,and dNDMI and Landsat-8/OLI based dNBR,dNDVI,and dSAVI.Among several spectral indices,the highest accuracy for fire severity classification was found for Sentinel-2 based RdNBR(72.1%)and Landsat-8/OLI based dNBR(69.2%).The results can be used to assess and map fire severity in forest ecosystems similar to those in this study.
文摘Objective:Fournier’s gangrene is a rare but life-threatening infection disease with high mortality rate.The quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)is a new and simpler scoring system that may identify patients with suspected infection who are at greater risk for a poor outcome.The purpose of this study was to find out role of qSOFA in determining prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene patients.Methods:This study is a case control with retrospective review of Fournier’s gangrene patients treated at Hasan Sadikin Hospital from January 2013 to December 2017 who met inclusion criteria.Participants were divided into two groups according to qSOFA score as high qSOFA(2-3)and low qSOFA(0-1).Results:From 69 patients,the mortality rate was 24.6%.The sensitivity of qSOFA score to predict mortality was 88.2%;the specificity was 94.2%;positive predictive value was 83.3%;negative predictive value was 96.1%;positive likelihood ratio was 15.2;negative likelihood ratio was 0.12;and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of qSOFA was 94.2%.There was significant association between qSOFA scale and mortality with p-value of 0.0001.The qSOFA score has strong positive correlation with Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index(p<0.0001,r=0.704).Conclusion:qSOFA scoring system has a high prognostic value and can be used to determine prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene patients.
文摘Introduction: COVID-19 is an infectious disease that has been causing a global pandemic since 2019. Although clinical forms are generally less severe in children than in adults, children nevertheless present polymorphous clinical forms and severe cases that can lead to death. Objective: To describe the clinical presentations found in the different waves of COVID-19, and to highlight the different factors of severity. Materials and Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study with retrospective and prospective data collection which lasted 7 months (from November 2021 to June 2022) and covered a study period from 6 March 2020 to 22 June 2022, i.e. 27 months. All patients aged 0 to 18 years, suspected of having COVID-19, confirmed by real-time RT-PCR or an antigenic Rapid Diagnostic Test or antibody were included. These patients were to be managed in the Mother and Child Centre of the Chantal Biya Foundation, as well as in the Specialised Centre for the Management of COVID patients, annex number II of the Yaoundé Central Hospital. The results were analysed using IBM SPSS.23 software. Results: We included 163 patients in our study. No paediatric patients were registered during the 3<sup>rd</sup> wave. The mean age of the patients in the study population was 13 ± 5 years with extremes from 15 days to 18 years. We had a female predominance with a sex ratio of 0.83. The most common comorbidity was asthma. The first wave presented mainly with respiratory symptoms such as dry cough and signs of respiratory distress. The second wave presented mainly with digestive symptoms such as diarrhoea, abdominal pain and vomiting. The fourth wave presented with ENT signs such as sore throat, and rhinorrhea. Factors associated with severity were mainly age less than five years (OR = 17.69), vomiting (OR = 6.50), presence of comorbidities (OR = 3.39), and alteration of vital parameters such as bradypnoea (OR = 19.68), bradycardia (OR = 6.34), tachycardia (OR = 3.73), oxygen saturation Conclusion: Clinical presentations varied between waves and the main risk factor was age under 5 years. The fourth wave was less severe than the second wave, which in turn was less severe than the first. (4<sup>th</sup> <sup>nd</sup> <sup>st</sup>) which allows us to humbly recommend more screening for patients under 18 years of age with respiratory, ENT and digestive signs and special attention for those under 5 years of age.
基金the Science and Technology Program of Guiyang Baiyun District Science and Technology Bureau.No.[2017]50Science and Technology Program of Guiyang Municipal Bureau of Science and Technology,No.[2018]1-72Science and Technology Fund Project of Guizhou Provincial Health Commission,No.gzwkj2021-127.
文摘BACKGROUND Compared with patients with other causes of acute pancreatitis,those with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis(HTG-AP)are more likely to develop persistent organ failure(POF).Therefore,recognizing the individuals at risk of developing POF early in the HTG-AP process is a vital for improving outcomes.Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP),a simple parameter that is obtained 24 h after admission,is an ideal index to predict HTG-AP severity;however,the suboptimal sensitivity limits its clinical application.Hence,current clinical scoring systems and biochemical parameters are not sufficient for predicting HTG-AP severity.AIM To elucidate the early predictive value of red cell distribution width(RDW)for POF in HTG-AP.METHODS In total,102 patients with HTG-AP were retrospectively enrolled.Demographic and clinical data,including RDW,were collected from all patients on admission.RESULTS Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification,37(33%)of 102 patients with HTG-AP were diagnosed with POF.On admission,RDW was significantly higher in patients with HTG-AP and POF than in those without POF(14.4%vs 12.5%,P<0.001).The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated a good discrim-inative power of RDW for POF with a cutoff of 13.1%,where the area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity were 0.85,82.4%,and 77.9%,respectively.When the RDW was≥13.1%and one point was added to the original BISAP to obtain a new BISAP score,we achieved a higher AUC,sensitivity,and specificity of 0.89,91.2%,and 67.6%,respectively.CONCLUSION RDW is a promising predictor of POF in patients with HTG-AP,and the addition of RDW can promote the sensitivity of BISAP.
文摘The world’s agricultural production suffers huge losses estimated between 20% and 40% annually. 40% to 50% of such losses are due to pest and diseases which cause significant economic losses every year. Precise assessment of severity is crucial for suitable management of crop diseases. It helps famers to avoid yield losses, reduce production costs, ensure good disease management and so on. This paper is a review of plant diseases severity estimation solutions proposed by researchers the last few years and based on Image Processing Techniques (IPT), classical Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. The analysis of these solutions has allowed us to identify their limitations and potential challenges in plant disease severity assessment.
文摘BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is continuing.The disease most commonly affects the lungs.Since the beginning of the pandemic thorax computed tomography(CT)has been an indispensable imaging method for diagnosis and follow-up.The disease is tried to be controlled with vaccines.Vaccination reduces the possibility of a severe course of the disease.AIM The aim of this study is to investigate whether the vaccination status of patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 has an effect on the CT severity score(CT-SS)and CORADS score obtained during hospitalization.METHODS The files of patients hospitalized between April 1,2021 and April 1,2022 due to COVID-19 were retrospectively reviewed.A total of 224 patients who were older than 18 years of age,whose vaccination status was accessible,whose severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction result was positive,and who had a Thorax CT scan during hospitalization were included in the study.RESULTS Among the patients included in the study,52.2%were female and the mean age was 61.85 years.The patients applied to the hospital on the average 7th day of their complaints.While 63 patients were unvaccinated(Group 1),20 were vaccinated with a single dose of CoronaVac(Group 2),24 with a single dose of BioNTech(Group 3),38 with 2 doses of CoronaVac(Group 4),40 with 2 doses of BioNTech(Group 5),and 39 with 3 doses of vaccine(2 doses of CoronaVac followed by a single dose of BioNTech,Group 6).CT-SS ranged from 5 to 23,with a mean of 12.17.RESULTS CT-SS mean of the groups were determined as 14.17,13.35,11.58,10.87,11.28,10.85,respectively.Accordingly,as a result of the comparisons between the groups,the CT-SS levels of the unvaccinated patients found to be significantly higher than the other groups.As the vaccination rates increased,the rate of typical COVID-19 findings on CT was found to be significantly lower.CONCLUSION Increased vaccination rates in COVID-19 patients reduce the probability of typical COVID-19 symptoms in the lungs.It also reduces the risk of severe disease and decreases CT Severity Scores.This may lead to a loss of importance of Thorax CT in the diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia as the end of the pandemic approaches.
文摘Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, triglyceride-glucose-BMI (TyG-BMI) index, laboratory indices, and disease severity in patients with COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 patients treated at a tertiary hospital in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province, China, from 1 May to 31 May 2023 was performed. The patients were divided into two groups: 66 cases in the moderate group and 61 cases in the severe group. Additionally, 69 uninfected individuals from the medical examination center during the same period were selected as the control group. Spearman rank correlation was used to determine the correlation between the indices and COVID-19 severity. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors affecting COVID-19 severity. ROC curves were constructed to assess the predictive value of the TyG and TyG-BMI indices for severe COVID-19. Results: There were significant differences in smoking and diabetes between the three groups (P Conclusion: Smoking, AST, ALB, TyG index, and TyG-BMI index are valuable in assessing the severity of COVID-19, with the TyG-BMI index having a higher predictive value than the TyG index.
文摘Rationale: In the literature, some risk factors for severity and mortality from COVID-19 have been indicated. However, these factors can change, depending on the characteristics of the population and health services. In this sense, longitudinal studies can be useful for understanding local realities and subsidizing health actions based on these realities. Objective: To analyze the risk factors for severity and death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized from August 1 to October 16, 2021 (3<sup>rd</sup> wave of the pandemic), notified by the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance of Sao Tome and Principe. We employed measures of strength of associations for the analysis of exposure risk factors. Results: We analyzed 110 hospitalized patients (31.8% severe-critical and 68.2% non-severe). The risk factors for severe forms of COVID-19 were: being aged ≥60 years (RR = 3.3), being male (RR = 2), having comorbidities (RR = 2) and the risk increases to 10-fold for multicomorbidities, with emphasis on obesity, neoplasia, skin-muscle-surgical infection, dementia and to some degree CVD. 62.9% of patients with severe forms of the disease were not vaccinated. Risk factors for death among hospitalized and severe/critical cases, respectively, were having comorbidities (RR = 8 and 2.4) multicomorbidities (RR = 10 and 2.8 for those with 2 comorbidities and RR = 33.3 and 4 for those with 3 or 4 comorbidities), especially diabetes, dementia, neoplasia, cutaneous-muscular infection, and obesity. Although CVD was not associated with risk factors for death, these were the most frequently found among the severely hospitalized and deaths. In addition, important risk factors associated with death were not using corticoids (RR = 3.3, 230-fold risk) and not using anticoagulants-heparin (RR = 1.3, 30% risk) more compared to the severe cases that did use them. Most of the patients who died (63.2%) were not vaccinated. Moreover, having only 1 dose of the vaccine was a risk factor 1.9 times more for death among all hospitalized patients, but in the severe cases, there was no association between the variable vaccination and death. Among those hospitalized with 2 doses, it was a 0.5-fold protective factor among those hospitalized. The Delta variant of Sarscov-2 was the one found among severe cases and deaths investigated by genetic sequencing, with more exuberant clinical features compared to the other 2 previous vaccinations. Conclusion: Being elderly, male and presenting comorbidities, mainly multicomorbidities were the main characteristics associated with severity of COVID-19. On the other hand, comorbidities, and even worse, multicomorbidities, hospitalization for respiratory failure, lowered level of consciousness, no use of corticoid and no use of anticoagulation in critically ill patients, and not having at least 2 doses of vaccine for covid-19, were characteristics associated with death by COVID-19. These results will help inform healthcare providers so that the best interventions can be implemented to improve outcomes for patients with COVID-19. Public health interventions must be carefully tailored and implemented in these susceptible groups to reduce the risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19 and then the risk of major complications. Intensive and regular follow-up is needed to detect early occurrences of clinical conditions.
文摘An important issue in analyzing accident blackspots is the estimation of severity levels of different types of accidents.This study aims to estimate the severity level of accidents in Bahrain using crash costs.These crash costs were calculated by the Human Capital Approach(HCA)and total reported costs from the victims.The data was collected from the General Directorate of Traffic,insurance companies,Ministry of Works(MoW)and Ministry of Health.It was found,from the survey responses,that there was no significant effect of victim characteristics on the total cost of the accidents.The severity levels were found to be higher than those found in previous literature or adopted by local authorities which could be attributed to the economic conditions of Bahrain.Moreover,the weights found by both approaches were different from each other.Therefore,it is recommended to use the HCA approach due to its comprehensive calculations involving future costs.
基金supported by Special Program of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province(Grant No.:2013A020229001)the Major Program of Guangzhou Healthcare Collaborative Innovation(Grant No.:201803040006)Basic and applied basic research project jointly funded by the University of Guangzhou(Grant No.:2023A03J0810).
文摘Objective:To identify the association between serum albumin levels and disease severity among adult patients with dengue in China's Mainland.Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed the data of adult patients(aged≥18 years)hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed dengue in a tertiary center for infectious diseases from 2013 to 2019 in China's Mainland.Serum albumin levels were estimated and compared between patients with severe dengue and non-severe dengue.Additionally,the association between serum albumin levels and severe dengue was evaluated using a generalized linear model[relative risks(RR)].Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the potential predictors of severe dengue.Results:Overall,1568 patients were included in this study.Of these patients,34(2.17%)developed severe dengue.The median serum albumin levels were significantly lower in patients with severe dengue than that in those with non-severe dengue(33 g/L vs.37 g/L,P<0.001).After adjustment for age,sex,and comorbidities,hypoalbuminemia(RR 4.877,95%CI 2.193-11.461,P<0.001)was found to be a predictor of severe dengue.Serum albumin levels(OR 1.303,95%CI 1.161-1.462,P<0.001)and age(OR 1.038,95%CI 1.017-1.061,P<0.001)were significant risk factors for severe dengue.The area under the curve for serum albumin levels to distinguish severe dengue was 0.787.Conclusions:Lower serum albumin levels were significantly associated with disease severity in adult patients with dengue.Hypoalbuminemia on admission resulted in at least a four-fold increased risk of severe dengue.
基金supported by a grant from the Excellent Talent Training Special Fund,Xicheng District of Beijing(20110046)
文摘BACKGROUND: Although pneumonia severity index(PSI) is widely used to evaluate the severity of community-acquired pneumonia(CAP), the calculation of PSI is very complicated. The present study aimed to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) in predicting the severity of CAP.METHODS: For 202 patients with CAP admitted to the emergency department, BNP levels, cardiac load indexes, inf lammatory indexes including C-reactive protein(CRP), white blood cell count(WBC), and PSI were detected. The correlation between the indexes and PSI was investigated. BNP levels for survivor and non-survivor groups were compared, and a receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve analysis was performed on the BNP levels versus PSI.RESULTS: The BNP levels increased with CAP severity(r=0.782, P<0.001). The BNP levels of the high-risk group(PSI classes IV and V) were signifi cantly higher than those of the low-risk group(PSI classes I–III)(P<0.001). The BNP levels were signifi cantly higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group(P<0.001). In addition, there were positive correlations between BNP levels and PSI scores(r=0.782, P<0.001). The BNP level was highly accurate in predicting the severity of CAP(AUC=0.952). The optimal cut-off point of BNP level for distinguishing high-risk patients from low-risk ones was 125.0 pg/m L, with a sensitivity of 0.891 and a specifi city of 0.946. Moreover, BNP level was accurate in predicting mortality(AUC=0.823). Its optimal cut-off point for predicting death was 299.0 pg/m L, with a sensitivity of 0.675 and a specifi city of 0.816. Its negative predictive cut-off value was 0.926, and the positive predictive cut-off value was 0.426.CONCLUSION: BNP level is positively correlated with the severity of CAP, and may be used as a biomarker for evaluating the severity of CAP.
基金Supported by Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support “Yangfan” Project,No.ZYLX201802Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals’ Youth Program,No.QML20170105National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81374004 and 81773931
文摘BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP) is an inflammatory disorder of the pancreas with an unpredictable course of illness. A major challenge of AP is the early identification of patients at high-risk for organ failure and death. However, scoring systems are complicated and time consuming, and the predictive values for the clinical course are vague.AIM To determine whether the dynamic changes in presepsin levels can be used to evaluate the severity of disease and outcome of AP.METHODS In this multicentric cohort study, 133 patients with AP were included. Clinical severity was dynamically evaluated using the 2012 revised Atlanta Classification. Blood presepsin levels were measured at days 1, 3, 5 and 7 after admission by chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay.RESULTS The median concentration of presepsin increased and the clearance rate of presepsin decreased with disease severity and organ failure in AP patients. The presepsin levels on days 3, 5 and 7 were independent predictors of moderately severe and severe AP with time-specific area under the curve(AUC) values of 0.827, 0.848 and 0.867, respectively. The presepsin levels positively correlated with bedside index of severity in AP, Ranson, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, computed tomography severity index and Marshall scores. Presepsin levels on days 3, 5 and 7 were independent predictors of 28-d mortality of AP patients with AUC values of 0.781, 0.846 and 0.843, respectively.CONCLUSION Blood presepsin levels within 7 d of admission were associated with and may be useful to dynamically predict the severity of disease course and 28-d mortality in AP patients.
文摘A spatial analysis of drought characteristics in the Limpopo basin is undertaken to evaluate its regional implications to water management challenges. In this study, drought duration, frequency and severity are investigated. In addition drought Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves were constructed. The entire Limpopo River Basin is subdivided into four homogeneous regions based on topographic and climate variations in the basin, which was constructed with the K-Means Clustering algorithm. Using the medium range time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought for each homogeneous region, monthly and annual SAF curves and maps of probability of drought occurrence were produced. The results indicated localized severe droughts in higher frequencies compared to moderate to severe low frequency droughts spread over wider areas in the basin. The approach can be used to develop improved drought indicators to assess the relationship between drought hazard and vulnerability and to enhance the performance of methods currently used for drought forecasting. In general, this preliminary investigation reveals that the western part of the basin will face a higher risk of drought when compared to other regions of the Limpopo Basin in terms of the medium-term drought patterns. The Limpopo Basin is water stressed and livelihood challenges remain high, thus impacts of droughts and related resilience options should be taken into account in the formulation of regional sustainable water resources development strategies.
基金Supported by A Grant-in-Aid to the Research Committee on Intractable Pancreatic Diseases provided from the Ministry of HealthLabour and Welfare of Japan
文摘Recent diagnostic and therapeutic progress for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)remarkably decreased the casemortality rate.To further decrease the mortality rate of SAP,it is important to precisely evaluate the severity at an early stage,and initiate appropriate treatment as early as possible.Research Committee of Intractable Diseases of the Pancreas in Japan developed simpler criteria combining routinely available data with clinical signs.Severity can be evaluated by laboratory examinations or by clinical signs,reducing the defect values of the severity factors.Moreover,the severity criteria considered laboratory/clinical severity scores and contrastenhanced computed tomography(CE-CT)findings as independent risk factors.Thus,CE-CT scans are not necessarily required to evaluate the severity of acute pancreatitis.There was no fatal case in mild AP diagnosed by the CE-CT severity score,whereas case-mortality rate in those with SAP was 14.8%.Case-mortality of SAP that fulfilled both the laboratory/clinical and the CE-CT severity criteria was 30.8%.It is recommended,therefore,to perform CE-CT examination to clarify the prognosis in those patients who were diagnosed as SAP by laboratory/clinical severity criteria.Because the mortality rate of these patients with SAP is high,such patients should be transferred to advanced medical units.
文摘AIM:To investigate the prognostic usefulness of several existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis(AP).METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected clinical database from consecutive patients with AP in our institution between January 2011 and December 2012.Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)-Ⅱ,and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)scores,and computed tomography severity index(CTSI)of all patients were calculated.Serum C-reactive protein(CRP)levels were measured at admission(CRPi)and after 24h(CRP24).Severe AP was defined as persistent organ failure for more than 48 h.The predictive accuracy of each scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver-operating curve(AUC).RESULTS:Of 161 patients,21(13%)were classified as severe AP,and 3(1.9%)died.Statistically significant cutoff values for prediction of severe AP were Ranson≥3,BISAP≥2,APACHE-Ⅱ≥8,CTSI≥3,and CRP24≥21.4.AUCs for Ranson,BISAP,APACHE-Ⅱ,CTSI,and CRP24 in predicting severe AP were 0.69(95%CI:0.62-0.76),0.74(95%CI:0.66-0.80),0.78(95%CI:0.70-0.84),0.69(95%CI:0.61-0.76),and0.68(95%CI:0.57-0.78),respectively.APACHE-Ⅱdemonstrated the highest accuracy for prediction of severe AP,however,no statistically significant pairwise differences were observed between APACHE-Ⅱand the other scoring systems,including CRP24.CONCLUSION:Various scoring systems showed similar predictive accuracy for severity of AP.Unique models are needed in order to achieve further improvement of prognostic accuracy.
