Carbon dioxide rise, swing and spread (seasonal fluctuations) are addressed in this study. Actual CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations were used rather than dry values. The dry values are artificially higher beca...Carbon dioxide rise, swing and spread (seasonal fluctuations) are addressed in this study. Actual CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations were used rather than dry values. The dry values are artificially higher because water vapor must be removed in order for the NDIR instrument to work and is not factored back into the reported numbers. Articles addressing these observations express opinions that are divergent and often conflicting. This investigation resolves many of those inconsistencies. The data were obtained from many measuring stations at various latitudes since 1972 and then graphical compared to changes in sea temperatures, fossil fuel emissions, humidity, and seasonal ice and snow changes. In analyzing the data, various parameters were addressed including: variability, R squared curve values, correlations between curves, residence times, absorption percentages, and Troposphere effects. Mass balance calculations were also made to corroborate viability. The CO<sub>2</sub> “rise” over a 33-year period from a slight ocean temperature increase (0.7°F) contributed 2.3 percent of the total rise while fossil fuel emissions contributed 1.5 percent. The overwhelming majority (60 ppmv, 96%+) was caused by other factors including ocean and land biology as well potential errors in fundamental hypotheses. With respect to “spread” (seasonal CO<sub>2</sub> fluctuations) at the Polar Circles, graphical analysis with high correlations supported by mass balance calculations confirm that ice and snow are the primary cause and explain why the concentrations are the highest at these cold locations. The global variations in “swing” remain uncertain.展开更多
Objective:To collect information on the seasonal activity of filarial vector around foothills of Susunia of West Bengal,India.Methods:Indoor-resting mosquitoes were collected from the human habitations of 16 villages....Objective:To collect information on the seasonal activity of filarial vector around foothills of Susunia of West Bengal,India.Methods:Indoor-resting mosquitoes were collected from the human habitations of 16 villages.Collected mosquitoes were identified and examined for different parameters following standard methods recommended by World Health Organization and pioneer workers.Results:Overall man hour density,infection rate,infectivity rate,human blood index and daily mortality rate of the vector were assessed as 10.54%,6.31%,1.38%,77.33%and 13.00%, respectively,which were 12.17%,8.63%,2.26%,100.00%and 17.00%,respectively in the summer season.Average load of microfilaria,1st stage,2nd stage and 3rd stage larvae of Wuchereria bancrofti in infected vectors were 10.02.7.50,5.56 and 4.68,respectively,which were 11.58,9.90. 6.27 and 5.44,respectively in summer.Among the searched shelters 63.37%,8.16%and 2.08% were found to be invaded by any vector,infected vector and infective vector,respectively,which were 68.75%,12.76%and 3.91%,respectively in summer.Conclusions:Different indices related to the vector were much higher in summer,which indicates that,summer is the most favorable season for transmission of lymphatic filariasis in the study area.Available data will help to formulate an effective vector control measure.展开更多
AIM:To assess the effect of sitagliptin therapy on seasonal fluctuation of glycemic control in Japanese type 2 diabetic patients.METHODS:Participating patients(age:29-80 years) had been treated with conventional oral ...AIM:To assess the effect of sitagliptin therapy on seasonal fluctuation of glycemic control in Japanese type 2 diabetic patients.METHODS:Participating patients(age:29-80 years) had been treated with conventional oral antidiabetic agents and/or diet and exercise therapy for over 6 mo.From December 2009,35 patients were additionally prescribed oral sitagliptin starting from 50 mg once daily,while 19 patients taking-glucosidase inhibitors were switched to sitagliptin.Twenty-four patients who refused sitagliptin formed the control group.Changes of mean monthly hemoglobin A 1c(HbA 1c) during the "winter holiday season" were compared between groups using Student's t-test(2008-2009 vs 2009-2010).Statistical significance was accepted at P < 0.05.Multivariate analysis was performed to assess whether sitagliptin use was associated with deterioration or improvement of glycemic control.RESULTS:Both add-on sitagliptin and switching from-glucosidase inhibitors to sitagliptin prevented the seasonal deterioration of glycemic control and tended to improve HbA 1c.Multivariate analysis revealed that both adding and switching to sitagliptin were negatively correlated with deterioration of glycemic control.In 44 patients who continued sitagliptin therapy for another year,elevation of HbA 1c was suppressed without adverse effects.CONCLUSION:Sitagliptin is a suitable oral agent for preventing deterioration of glycemic control during the winter holiday season.展开更多
The seasonal fluctuation of the plasmodia ofMyxobolus gibelioiWu et Wang, 1982 in the gill filaments of the allogynogenetic gibel carpCarassius auratus gibelio(Bloch) in a fish pond in Hubei Province of China was inve...The seasonal fluctuation of the plasmodia ofMyxobolus gibelioiWu et Wang, 1982 in the gill filaments of the allogynogenetic gibel carpCarassius auratus gibelio(Bloch) in a fish pond in Hubei Province of China was investigated from August 1999 to July 2000. A total of 445 fish was examined; the overall prevalence of the plasmodium infection in the fish was 64.94% and mean abundance of plasmodia was 11.65 ± 27.85 (mean ± SD). Significant seasonal changes in prevalence and mean abundance, with higher levels of the plasmodia infection from late spring to autumn, were observed.展开更多
Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes (the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights) with respect to a modulated annual cycle (MAC), and those associated exclusively with weathe...Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes (the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights) with respect to a modulated annual cycle (MAC), and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations (WIF) in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960–2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm (cold) nights were found to have increased (decreased) significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) in northern China (north of 40°N). However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas (by 10%–20%); summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%–20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.展开更多
Seasonal variations play an essential role in the metabolism, behavior and activity of the laboratory animals. This study was aimed to examine whether mitochondrial function can be influenced by the seasonal changes a...Seasonal variations play an essential role in the metabolism, behavior and activity of the laboratory animals. This study was aimed to examine whether mitochondrial function can be influenced by the seasonal changes and how large is the impact of these fluctuations on experiments with using animal models and further results interpretation. Liver mitochondria were isolated from male Wistar rats and exposed to calcium ions, PAMAM dendrimers G2.5 or their combination: (Ca2+) and dendrimer. The scientific hypothesis assumed that dendrimer G2.5 is able to limit the detrimental effect of Ca2+ ions on mitochondria function, possibly through affecting the following parameters: calcium transport, mitochondrial potential and membrane fluidity. The activity of mitochondria was monitored using fluorescent labels. The changes in calcium transport were detected using Calcium Green 5-N, the mitochondrial membrane potential and membrane fluidity were elucidated using JC-1 and DPH, respectively. The experiments were carried out during the autumn (October/November) or during the spring (May/June). The obtained data emphasize the effect of seasonal differences on liver mitochondria originating from laboratory animals and outline the importance of planning the experiments during the same seasonal period in order to receive objective and reliable results in the future. Finally, it was revealed the neutral effect of G2.5 dendrimer on mitochondria and its inability to protect mitochondria against overload of calcium ions regardless of seasonality. It was also evidenced that liver mitochondria isolated from autumn-derived animals were more sensitive to calcium and/or dendrimer exposure in comparison with mitochondria isolated from animals investigated during the spring.展开更多
The demand for water resources in the area south of the Dead Sea due t o continued development, especially at the Arab Potash Company(APC) for producti on and domestic purposes necessitates that water quality in the a...The demand for water resources in the area south of the Dead Sea due t o continued development, especially at the Arab Potash Company(APC) for producti on and domestic purposes necessitates that water quality in the area be monitore d and evaluated based on the local geology and hydrogeology. The objective of th is paper is to monitor seasonal fluctuations of groundwater and to determine how fluctuation in the water levels will affect the groundwater quality. Groundwate r levels were found to be influenced by rainfall and pumping of water from the w ells for domestic and industrial use. Twenty water samples were collected from d ifferent wells and analyzed for major chemical constituents both in pre- and pos t-seasons to determine the quality variation. Chemical constituents are signific antly increased after post-season recharge. According to the overall assessment of the area, water quality was found to be useful for drinking, irrigation and i ndustry.展开更多
Decadal changes in the subseasonal evolution and the phase-locked climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of summertime rainfall over the Korean Peninsula before and after the mid-1990s are investigated.The activity ...Decadal changes in the subseasonal evolution and the phase-locked climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of summertime rainfall over the Korean Peninsula before and after the mid-1990s are investigated.The activity and the migration speed of the monsoon rain band over the East Asian region are altered in the recent decade,resulting in the drier conditions in late spring and the earlier onset of Changma.In early August when a climatological monsoon break was clear in the earlier decade,the precipitation has increased dramatically with a meridional coherency.The response to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southeastern China provides a favorable condition for more precipitation in early August through the changes in moisture transport and tropical cyclone passage.展开更多
This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the e...This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the essential part of local eddy available potential energy, as a metric to quantify the temperature fluctuations with weather patterns on various timescales. By comparing groups of singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we suggest a significant linkage between strong (weak) August 10-to-30-day temperature fluctuations over mid-west Asia and enhanced (decreased) Barents-Kara Sea ice in the previous February. We find that when the February SIC increases in the Barents-Kara Sea, a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies appears in the Atlantic subpolar region and lasts from February into the summer months. Evidence suggests that in such a background state, the atmospheric circulation changes evidently from July to August, so that the August is characterized by an amplified meridional circulation over Eurasia, weakened westerlies, and high- pressure anomalies along the Arctic coast. Moreover, the 10-to-30-day wave becomes more active in the North Atlantic-Barents-Kara Sea-Central Asia regions and manifests a more evident southward propagation from the Barents- Kara Sea into the Ural region, which is responsible for the enhanced 10-to-30-day wave activity and temperature fluctuations in the region.展开更多
This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that co...This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.展开更多
In the fiber winding process,strong disturbance,uncertainty,strong coupling,and fiber friction complicate the winding constant tension control.In order to effectively reduce the influence of these problems on the tens...In the fiber winding process,strong disturbance,uncertainty,strong coupling,and fiber friction complicate the winding constant tension control.In order to effectively reduce the influence of these problems on the tension output,this paper proposed a tension fluctuation rejection strategy based on feedforward compensation.In addition to the bias harmonic curve of the unknown state,the tension fluctuation also contains the influence of bounded noise.A tension fluctuation observer(TFO)is designed to cancel the uncertain periodic signal,in which the frequency generator is used to estimate the critical parameter information.Then,the fluctuation signal is reconstructed by a third-order auxiliary filter.The estimated signal feedforward compensates for the actual tension fluctuation.Furthermore,a time-varying parameters fractional-order PID controller(TPFOPID)is realized to attenuate the bounded noise in the fluctuation.Finally,TPFOPID is enhanced by TFO and applied to control a tension control system considering multi-source disturbances.The stability of the method is analyzed by using the Lyapunov theorem.Finally,numerical simulations verify that the proposed scheme improves the tracking ability and robustness of the system in response to tension fluctuations.展开更多
El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and de...El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and decaying over the next spring. Several studies have demonstrated that this feature arises as a result of seasonal variation in the growth rate of ENSO as expressed by the sea surface temperature(SST). The bias towards simulating the phase locking of ENSO by many state-of-the-art climate models is also attributed to the unrealistic depiction of the growth rate. In this study, the seasonal variation of SST growth rate in the Ni?o-3.4 region(5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) is estimated in detail based on the mixed layer heat budget equation and recharge oscillator model during 1981–2020. It is suggested that the consideration of a variable mixed layer depth is essential to its diagnostic process. The estimated growth rate has a remarkable seasonal cycle with minimum rates occurring in spring and maximum rates evident in autumn. More specifically, the growth rate derived from the meridional advection(surface heat flux) is positive(negative) throughout the year. Vertical diffusion generally makes a negative contribution to the evolution of growth rate and the magnitude of vertical entrainment represents the smallest contributor. Analysis indicates that the zonal advective feedback is regulated by the meridional immigration of the intertropical convergence zone, which approaches its southernmost extent in February and progresses to its northernmost location in September, and dominates the seasonal variation of the SST growth rate.展开更多
BACKGROUND Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)have large fluctuations in blood glucose(BG),abnormal metabolic function and low immunity to varying degrees,which increases the risk of malignant tumor diseases ...BACKGROUND Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)have large fluctuations in blood glucose(BG),abnormal metabolic function and low immunity to varying degrees,which increases the risk of malignant tumor diseases and affects the efficacy of tumor chemotherapy.Controlling hyperglycemia may have important therapeutic implications for cancer patients.AIM To clarify the influence of BG fluctuations on chemotherapy efficacy and safety in T2DM patients complicated with lung carcinoma(LC).METHODS The clinical data of 60 T2DM+LC patients who presented to the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University between January 2019 and January 2021 were retrospectively analyzed.All patients underwent chemotherapy and were grouped as a control group(CG;normal BG fluctuation with a mean fluctuation<3.9 mmol/L)and an observation group(OG;high BG fluctuation with a mean fluctuation≥3.9 mmol/L)based on their BG fluctuations,with 30 cases each.BGrelated indices,tumor markers,serum inflammatory cytokines and adverse reactions were comparatively analyzed.Pearson correlation analysis was performed to analyze the correlation between BG fluctuations and tumor markers.RESULTS The fasting blood glucose and 2-hour postprandial blood glucose levels in the OG were notably elevated compared with those in the CG,together with markedly higher mean amplitude of glycemic excursions(MAGE),mean of daily differences,largest amplitude of glycemic excursions and standard deviation of blood glucose(P<0.05).In addition,the OG exhibited evidently higher levels of carbohydrate antigen 19-9,carbohydrate antigen 125,carcinoembryonic antigen,neuron-specific enolase,cytokeratin 19,tumor necrosis factor-α,interleukin-6,and highsensitivity C-reactive protein than the CG(P<0.05).Pearson analysis revealed a positive association of MAGE with serum tumor markers.The incidence of adverse reactions was significantly higher in the OG than in the CG(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The greater the BG fluctuation in LC patients after chemotherapy,the more unfavorable the therapeutic effect of chemotherapy;the higher the level of tumor markers and inflammatory cytokines,the more adverse reactions the patient experiences.展开更多
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the seasonal performance of 20 MW solar power plants in Senegal. The analysis revealed notable seasonal variations in the performance of all stations. The most significa...The main objective of this study is to evaluate the seasonal performance of 20 MW solar power plants in Senegal. The analysis revealed notable seasonal variations in the performance of all stations. The most significant yields are recorded in spring, autumn and winter, with values ranging from 5 to 7.51 kWh/kWp/day for the reference yield and 4.02 to 7.58 kWh/kWp/day for the final yield. These fluctuations are associated with intense solar activity during the dry season and clear skies, indicating peak production. Conversely, minimum values are recorded during the rainy season from June to September, with a final yield of 3.86 kWh/kW/day due to dust, clouds and high temperatures. The performance ratio analysis shows seasonal dynamics throughout the year with rates ranging from 77.40% to 95.79%, reinforcing reliability and optimal utilization of installed capacity. The results of the capacity factor vary significantly, with March, April, May, and sometimes October standing out as periods of optimal performance, with 16% for Kahone, 16% for Bokhol, 18% for Malicounda and 23% for Sakal. Total losses from solar power plants show similar seasonal trends standing out for high loss levels from June to July, reaching up to 3.35 kWh/kWp/day in June. However, using solar trackers at Sakal has increased production by up to 25%, demonstrating the operational stability of this innovative technology compared with the plants fixed panel. Finally, comparing these results with international studies confirms the outstanding efficiency of Senegalese solar power plants, other installations around the world.展开更多
Extreme seasonal water level fluctuations characterize natural floodplain lakes in monsoon regions, which are crucial for ensuring lake water security, including flood prevention water supply and health of aquatic eco...Extreme seasonal water level fluctuations characterize natural floodplain lakes in monsoon regions, which are crucial for ensuring lake water security, including flood prevention water supply and health of aquatic ecosystem. In order to achieve this goal, we established a hydrological regime assessment method based on a set of hydrological indicators for lakes with heavy seasonal water level fluctuations. The results suggest that time-sensitive hydrological indicators and specific time scales for various water security aspects must be considered. We discovered that it is more practical and meaningful to combine the water level classification derived from statistical analyses with characteristic hydrological values linked to water security. The case study of Poyang Lake results show that there are no discernable trends of Poyang Lake water regime status over the last 35 years, and the two periods of poor status are in accordance with climate variation in the lake basin area. Scholars and policy makers should focus on both floods and droughts, which are the main water security problems for Poyang Lake. It is hoped that this multi-scale and multi-element hydrological regime assessment method will provide new guidelines and methods for other international scholars of river and lake water assessment.展开更多
The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captu...The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions,a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern China.However,the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July 2021 and its seasonal predictability are still unknown.Here,the observed northward shift of the WPSH in July 2021 is shown to correspond to a meridional dipole pattern of the 850-hPa geopotential height to the east of China,the amplitude of which became the strongest since 1979.The meridional dipole pattern is two nodes of the Pacific–Japan pattern.To investigate the predictability of the WPSH variation,a 21-member ensemble of seasonal predictions initiated from the end of June 2021 was conducted.The predictable and unpredictable components of the meridional dipole pattern were identified from the ensemble simulations.Its predictable component is driven by positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical western Pacific.The positive precipitation anomalies are caused by positive horizonal advection of the mean moist enthalpy by southwesterly anomalies to the northwestern flank of anticyclonic anomalies excited by the existing La Niña,which is skillfully predicted by the model.The leading mode of the unpredictable component is associated with the atmospheric internal intraseasonal oscillations,which are not initialized in the simulations.The relative contributions of the predictable and unpredictable components to the observed northward shift of the WPSH at 850 hPa are 28.0%and 72.0%,respectively.展开更多
With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slop...With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slope which is located on the left bank of the Jinsha River 75 km upstream of the Xiluodu dam site,began to deform in 2014.The potential failure of the slope not only threatens Yanjiao town but also affects the safe operation of the Xiluodu reservoir.This paper is to find the factors influencing the Yanjiao slope deformation through field investigation,geotechnical reconnaissance,and monitoring.Results show that the Yanjiao slope can be divided into a bank collapse area(BCA)and a strong deformation area(SDA)based on the crack distribution characteristics of the slope.The rear area of the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation with a maximum cumulative displacement(GPS monitoring point G4)of 505 mm and 399 mm in the horizontal and vertical directions,respectively.The potential failure surface of the slope is formed 36 m below the surface based on the borehole inclinometer.The bank collapses of the Yanjiao slope are directly caused by the reservoir impoundment while the deformation area of the slope is affected by the combination of the rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation.Based on mechanism of the Yanjiao slope,prestressed anchor combined with the surface drainage and slope unloading are recommended to prevent potential deformation.展开更多
Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this r...Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.展开更多
文摘Carbon dioxide rise, swing and spread (seasonal fluctuations) are addressed in this study. Actual CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations were used rather than dry values. The dry values are artificially higher because water vapor must be removed in order for the NDIR instrument to work and is not factored back into the reported numbers. Articles addressing these observations express opinions that are divergent and often conflicting. This investigation resolves many of those inconsistencies. The data were obtained from many measuring stations at various latitudes since 1972 and then graphical compared to changes in sea temperatures, fossil fuel emissions, humidity, and seasonal ice and snow changes. In analyzing the data, various parameters were addressed including: variability, R squared curve values, correlations between curves, residence times, absorption percentages, and Troposphere effects. Mass balance calculations were also made to corroborate viability. The CO<sub>2</sub> “rise” over a 33-year period from a slight ocean temperature increase (0.7°F) contributed 2.3 percent of the total rise while fossil fuel emissions contributed 1.5 percent. The overwhelming majority (60 ppmv, 96%+) was caused by other factors including ocean and land biology as well potential errors in fundamental hypotheses. With respect to “spread” (seasonal CO<sub>2</sub> fluctuations) at the Polar Circles, graphical analysis with high correlations supported by mass balance calculations confirm that ice and snow are the primary cause and explain why the concentrations are the highest at these cold locations. The global variations in “swing” remain uncertain.
文摘Objective:To collect information on the seasonal activity of filarial vector around foothills of Susunia of West Bengal,India.Methods:Indoor-resting mosquitoes were collected from the human habitations of 16 villages.Collected mosquitoes were identified and examined for different parameters following standard methods recommended by World Health Organization and pioneer workers.Results:Overall man hour density,infection rate,infectivity rate,human blood index and daily mortality rate of the vector were assessed as 10.54%,6.31%,1.38%,77.33%and 13.00%, respectively,which were 12.17%,8.63%,2.26%,100.00%and 17.00%,respectively in the summer season.Average load of microfilaria,1st stage,2nd stage and 3rd stage larvae of Wuchereria bancrofti in infected vectors were 10.02.7.50,5.56 and 4.68,respectively,which were 11.58,9.90. 6.27 and 5.44,respectively in summer.Among the searched shelters 63.37%,8.16%and 2.08% were found to be invaded by any vector,infected vector and infective vector,respectively,which were 68.75%,12.76%and 3.91%,respectively in summer.Conclusions:Different indices related to the vector were much higher in summer,which indicates that,summer is the most favorable season for transmission of lymphatic filariasis in the study area.Available data will help to formulate an effective vector control measure.
文摘AIM:To assess the effect of sitagliptin therapy on seasonal fluctuation of glycemic control in Japanese type 2 diabetic patients.METHODS:Participating patients(age:29-80 years) had been treated with conventional oral antidiabetic agents and/or diet and exercise therapy for over 6 mo.From December 2009,35 patients were additionally prescribed oral sitagliptin starting from 50 mg once daily,while 19 patients taking-glucosidase inhibitors were switched to sitagliptin.Twenty-four patients who refused sitagliptin formed the control group.Changes of mean monthly hemoglobin A 1c(HbA 1c) during the "winter holiday season" were compared between groups using Student's t-test(2008-2009 vs 2009-2010).Statistical significance was accepted at P < 0.05.Multivariate analysis was performed to assess whether sitagliptin use was associated with deterioration or improvement of glycemic control.RESULTS:Both add-on sitagliptin and switching from-glucosidase inhibitors to sitagliptin prevented the seasonal deterioration of glycemic control and tended to improve HbA 1c.Multivariate analysis revealed that both adding and switching to sitagliptin were negatively correlated with deterioration of glycemic control.In 44 patients who continued sitagliptin therapy for another year,elevation of HbA 1c was suppressed without adverse effects.CONCLUSION:Sitagliptin is a suitable oral agent for preventing deterioration of glycemic control during the winter holiday season.
文摘The seasonal fluctuation of the plasmodia ofMyxobolus gibelioiWu et Wang, 1982 in the gill filaments of the allogynogenetic gibel carpCarassius auratus gibelio(Bloch) in a fish pond in Hubei Province of China was investigated from August 1999 to July 2000. A total of 445 fish was examined; the overall prevalence of the plasmodium infection in the fish was 64.94% and mean abundance of plasmodia was 11.65 ± 27.85 (mean ± SD). Significant seasonal changes in prevalence and mean abundance, with higher levels of the plasmodia infection from late spring to autumn, were observed.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (GrantNo. 2011CB952000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41005039 and40810059003)+1 种基金Yan and Tu were sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421401)Wu was sponsored by the National Science Foundation of USA (ATM-0653136, ATM-0917743)
文摘Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes (the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights) with respect to a modulated annual cycle (MAC), and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations (WIF) in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960–2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm (cold) nights were found to have increased (decreased) significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) in northern China (north of 40°N). However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas (by 10%–20%); summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%–20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.
文摘Seasonal variations play an essential role in the metabolism, behavior and activity of the laboratory animals. This study was aimed to examine whether mitochondrial function can be influenced by the seasonal changes and how large is the impact of these fluctuations on experiments with using animal models and further results interpretation. Liver mitochondria were isolated from male Wistar rats and exposed to calcium ions, PAMAM dendrimers G2.5 or their combination: (Ca2+) and dendrimer. The scientific hypothesis assumed that dendrimer G2.5 is able to limit the detrimental effect of Ca2+ ions on mitochondria function, possibly through affecting the following parameters: calcium transport, mitochondrial potential and membrane fluidity. The activity of mitochondria was monitored using fluorescent labels. The changes in calcium transport were detected using Calcium Green 5-N, the mitochondrial membrane potential and membrane fluidity were elucidated using JC-1 and DPH, respectively. The experiments were carried out during the autumn (October/November) or during the spring (May/June). The obtained data emphasize the effect of seasonal differences on liver mitochondria originating from laboratory animals and outline the importance of planning the experiments during the same seasonal period in order to receive objective and reliable results in the future. Finally, it was revealed the neutral effect of G2.5 dendrimer on mitochondria and its inability to protect mitochondria against overload of calcium ions regardless of seasonality. It was also evidenced that liver mitochondria isolated from autumn-derived animals were more sensitive to calcium and/or dendrimer exposure in comparison with mitochondria isolated from animals investigated during the spring.
文摘The demand for water resources in the area south of the Dead Sea due t o continued development, especially at the Arab Potash Company(APC) for producti on and domestic purposes necessitates that water quality in the area be monitore d and evaluated based on the local geology and hydrogeology. The objective of th is paper is to monitor seasonal fluctuations of groundwater and to determine how fluctuation in the water levels will affect the groundwater quality. Groundwate r levels were found to be influenced by rainfall and pumping of water from the w ells for domestic and industrial use. Twenty water samples were collected from d ifferent wells and analyzed for major chemical constituents both in pre- and pos t-seasons to determine the quality variation. Chemical constituents are signific antly increased after post-season recharge. According to the overall assessment of the area, water quality was found to be useful for drinking, irrigation and i ndustry.
基金the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Research and Development Program under Grant CATER 2006- 4205 and by BK21 program.Partial support for M.Kimoto was given by the Innovative Program of Climate Change for the 21st Century of the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture,Sports,Science and Technology.
文摘Decadal changes in the subseasonal evolution and the phase-locked climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of summertime rainfall over the Korean Peninsula before and after the mid-1990s are investigated.The activity and the migration speed of the monsoon rain band over the East Asian region are altered in the recent decade,resulting in the drier conditions in late spring and the earlier onset of Changma.In early August when a climatological monsoon break was clear in the earlier decade,the precipitation has increased dramatically with a meridional coherency.The response to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southeastern China provides a favorable condition for more precipitation in early August through the changes in moisture transport and tropical cyclone passage.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program under Grant 2022YFE0106900the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant XDA2010030804the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41621005.
文摘This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the essential part of local eddy available potential energy, as a metric to quantify the temperature fluctuations with weather patterns on various timescales. By comparing groups of singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we suggest a significant linkage between strong (weak) August 10-to-30-day temperature fluctuations over mid-west Asia and enhanced (decreased) Barents-Kara Sea ice in the previous February. We find that when the February SIC increases in the Barents-Kara Sea, a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies appears in the Atlantic subpolar region and lasts from February into the summer months. Evidence suggests that in such a background state, the atmospheric circulation changes evidently from July to August, so that the August is characterized by an amplified meridional circulation over Eurasia, weakened westerlies, and high- pressure anomalies along the Arctic coast. Moreover, the 10-to-30-day wave becomes more active in the North Atlantic-Barents-Kara Sea-Central Asia regions and manifests a more evident southward propagation from the Barents- Kara Sea into the Ural region, which is responsible for the enhanced 10-to-30-day wave activity and temperature fluctuations in the region.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42030605)the High-Performance Computing of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work。
文摘This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Number 52075361)Shanxi Province Science and Technology Major Project(Grant Number 20201102003)+3 种基金Lvliang Science and Technology Guidance Special Key R&D Project(Grant Number 2022XDHZ08)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Number 51905367)Shanxi Natural Science Foundation General Project(Grant Numbers 202103021224271,202203021211201)Shanxi Province Key Research and Development Plan(Grant Number 202102020101013).
文摘In the fiber winding process,strong disturbance,uncertainty,strong coupling,and fiber friction complicate the winding constant tension control.In order to effectively reduce the influence of these problems on the tension output,this paper proposed a tension fluctuation rejection strategy based on feedforward compensation.In addition to the bias harmonic curve of the unknown state,the tension fluctuation also contains the influence of bounded noise.A tension fluctuation observer(TFO)is designed to cancel the uncertain periodic signal,in which the frequency generator is used to estimate the critical parameter information.Then,the fluctuation signal is reconstructed by a third-order auxiliary filter.The estimated signal feedforward compensates for the actual tension fluctuation.Furthermore,a time-varying parameters fractional-order PID controller(TPFOPID)is realized to attenuate the bounded noise in the fluctuation.Finally,TPFOPID is enhanced by TFO and applied to control a tension control system considering multi-source disturbances.The stability of the method is analyzed by using the Lyapunov theorem.Finally,numerical simulations verify that the proposed scheme improves the tracking ability and robustness of the system in response to tension fluctuations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42192564)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (Grant No. 2020B0301030004)the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (Grant No.2020YFA0608802)。
文摘El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and decaying over the next spring. Several studies have demonstrated that this feature arises as a result of seasonal variation in the growth rate of ENSO as expressed by the sea surface temperature(SST). The bias towards simulating the phase locking of ENSO by many state-of-the-art climate models is also attributed to the unrealistic depiction of the growth rate. In this study, the seasonal variation of SST growth rate in the Ni?o-3.4 region(5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) is estimated in detail based on the mixed layer heat budget equation and recharge oscillator model during 1981–2020. It is suggested that the consideration of a variable mixed layer depth is essential to its diagnostic process. The estimated growth rate has a remarkable seasonal cycle with minimum rates occurring in spring and maximum rates evident in autumn. More specifically, the growth rate derived from the meridional advection(surface heat flux) is positive(negative) throughout the year. Vertical diffusion generally makes a negative contribution to the evolution of growth rate and the magnitude of vertical entrainment represents the smallest contributor. Analysis indicates that the zonal advective feedback is regulated by the meridional immigration of the intertropical convergence zone, which approaches its southernmost extent in February and progresses to its northernmost location in September, and dominates the seasonal variation of the SST growth rate.
基金Supported by Chronic Disease Management Center for Thoracic Tumor,The Affiliated Hospital of Medical School of Ningbo University,No.2021MGZX-07Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo,No.2019A610238.
文摘BACKGROUND Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)have large fluctuations in blood glucose(BG),abnormal metabolic function and low immunity to varying degrees,which increases the risk of malignant tumor diseases and affects the efficacy of tumor chemotherapy.Controlling hyperglycemia may have important therapeutic implications for cancer patients.AIM To clarify the influence of BG fluctuations on chemotherapy efficacy and safety in T2DM patients complicated with lung carcinoma(LC).METHODS The clinical data of 60 T2DM+LC patients who presented to the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University between January 2019 and January 2021 were retrospectively analyzed.All patients underwent chemotherapy and were grouped as a control group(CG;normal BG fluctuation with a mean fluctuation<3.9 mmol/L)and an observation group(OG;high BG fluctuation with a mean fluctuation≥3.9 mmol/L)based on their BG fluctuations,with 30 cases each.BGrelated indices,tumor markers,serum inflammatory cytokines and adverse reactions were comparatively analyzed.Pearson correlation analysis was performed to analyze the correlation between BG fluctuations and tumor markers.RESULTS The fasting blood glucose and 2-hour postprandial blood glucose levels in the OG were notably elevated compared with those in the CG,together with markedly higher mean amplitude of glycemic excursions(MAGE),mean of daily differences,largest amplitude of glycemic excursions and standard deviation of blood glucose(P<0.05).In addition,the OG exhibited evidently higher levels of carbohydrate antigen 19-9,carbohydrate antigen 125,carcinoembryonic antigen,neuron-specific enolase,cytokeratin 19,tumor necrosis factor-α,interleukin-6,and highsensitivity C-reactive protein than the CG(P<0.05).Pearson analysis revealed a positive association of MAGE with serum tumor markers.The incidence of adverse reactions was significantly higher in the OG than in the CG(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The greater the BG fluctuation in LC patients after chemotherapy,the more unfavorable the therapeutic effect of chemotherapy;the higher the level of tumor markers and inflammatory cytokines,the more adverse reactions the patient experiences.
文摘The main objective of this study is to evaluate the seasonal performance of 20 MW solar power plants in Senegal. The analysis revealed notable seasonal variations in the performance of all stations. The most significant yields are recorded in spring, autumn and winter, with values ranging from 5 to 7.51 kWh/kWp/day for the reference yield and 4.02 to 7.58 kWh/kWp/day for the final yield. These fluctuations are associated with intense solar activity during the dry season and clear skies, indicating peak production. Conversely, minimum values are recorded during the rainy season from June to September, with a final yield of 3.86 kWh/kW/day due to dust, clouds and high temperatures. The performance ratio analysis shows seasonal dynamics throughout the year with rates ranging from 77.40% to 95.79%, reinforcing reliability and optimal utilization of installed capacity. The results of the capacity factor vary significantly, with March, April, May, and sometimes October standing out as periods of optimal performance, with 16% for Kahone, 16% for Bokhol, 18% for Malicounda and 23% for Sakal. Total losses from solar power plants show similar seasonal trends standing out for high loss levels from June to July, reaching up to 3.35 kWh/kWp/day in June. However, using solar trackers at Sakal has increased production by up to 25%, demonstrating the operational stability of this innovative technology compared with the plants fixed panel. Finally, comparing these results with international studies confirms the outstanding efficiency of Senegalese solar power plants, other installations around the world.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106500]the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 2022076]the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)[grant number 2023-EL-ZD-00012].
基金supported by the Chinese-Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42088101]+1 种基金a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311020001].
基金Under the auspices of Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KFZD-SW-318)National Science Foundation of China(No.41571107)National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB417006)
文摘Extreme seasonal water level fluctuations characterize natural floodplain lakes in monsoon regions, which are crucial for ensuring lake water security, including flood prevention water supply and health of aquatic ecosystem. In order to achieve this goal, we established a hydrological regime assessment method based on a set of hydrological indicators for lakes with heavy seasonal water level fluctuations. The results suggest that time-sensitive hydrological indicators and specific time scales for various water security aspects must be considered. We discovered that it is more practical and meaningful to combine the water level classification derived from statistical analyses with characteristic hydrological values linked to water security. The case study of Poyang Lake results show that there are no discernable trends of Poyang Lake water regime status over the last 35 years, and the two periods of poor status are in accordance with climate variation in the lake basin area. Scholars and policy makers should focus on both floods and droughts, which are the main water security problems for Poyang Lake. It is hoped that this multi-scale and multi-element hydrological regime assessment method will provide new guidelines and methods for other international scholars of river and lake water assessment.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41988101the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant XDA20060102the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2022T150638 and K.C.Wong Education Foundation.
文摘The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions,a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern China.However,the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July 2021 and its seasonal predictability are still unknown.Here,the observed northward shift of the WPSH in July 2021 is shown to correspond to a meridional dipole pattern of the 850-hPa geopotential height to the east of China,the amplitude of which became the strongest since 1979.The meridional dipole pattern is two nodes of the Pacific–Japan pattern.To investigate the predictability of the WPSH variation,a 21-member ensemble of seasonal predictions initiated from the end of June 2021 was conducted.The predictable and unpredictable components of the meridional dipole pattern were identified from the ensemble simulations.Its predictable component is driven by positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical western Pacific.The positive precipitation anomalies are caused by positive horizonal advection of the mean moist enthalpy by southwesterly anomalies to the northwestern flank of anticyclonic anomalies excited by the existing La Niña,which is skillfully predicted by the model.The leading mode of the unpredictable component is associated with the atmospheric internal intraseasonal oscillations,which are not initialized in the simulations.The relative contributions of the predictable and unpredictable components to the observed northward shift of the WPSH at 850 hPa are 28.0%and 72.0%,respectively.
基金the project of POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited,Power China under Grant No.P46220the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan,China under Grant No.2022NSFSC0425the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province under Grant No.2021YJ0053。
文摘With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slope which is located on the left bank of the Jinsha River 75 km upstream of the Xiluodu dam site,began to deform in 2014.The potential failure of the slope not only threatens Yanjiao town but also affects the safe operation of the Xiluodu reservoir.This paper is to find the factors influencing the Yanjiao slope deformation through field investigation,geotechnical reconnaissance,and monitoring.Results show that the Yanjiao slope can be divided into a bank collapse area(BCA)and a strong deformation area(SDA)based on the crack distribution characteristics of the slope.The rear area of the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation with a maximum cumulative displacement(GPS monitoring point G4)of 505 mm and 399 mm in the horizontal and vertical directions,respectively.The potential failure surface of the slope is formed 36 m below the surface based on the borehole inclinometer.The bank collapses of the Yanjiao slope are directly caused by the reservoir impoundment while the deformation area of the slope is affected by the combination of the rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation.Based on mechanism of the Yanjiao slope,prestressed anchor combined with the surface drainage and slope unloading are recommended to prevent potential deformation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42175033)the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology。
文摘Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.
