Based on the system dynamic model, a full system dynamics estimation method is proposed for a chain shell magazine driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). An adaptive extended state observer(AESO) is pro...Based on the system dynamic model, a full system dynamics estimation method is proposed for a chain shell magazine driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). An adaptive extended state observer(AESO) is proposed to estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance, in which the model parameters are adjusted in real time. Theoretical analysis shows that the estimation errors of the disturbances and unmeasured states converge exponentially to zero, and the parameter estimation error can be obtained from the extended state. Then, based on the extended state of the AESO, a novel parameter estimation law is designed. Due to the convergence of AESO, the novel parameter estimation law is insensitive to controllers and excitation signal. Under persistent excitation(PE) condition, the estimated parameters will converge to a compact set around the actual parameter value. Without PE signal, the estimated parameters will converge to zero for the extended state. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance of the chain shell magazine, and the estimated parameters will converge to the actual value without strictly continuous PE signals.展开更多
The power grid,as the hub connecting the power supply and consumption sides,plays an important role in achieving carbon neutrality in China.In emerging carbon markets,assessing the investment benefits of power-grid en...The power grid,as the hub connecting the power supply and consumption sides,plays an important role in achieving carbon neutrality in China.In emerging carbon markets,assessing the investment benefits of power-grid enterprises is essential.Thus,studying the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of powergrid enterprises is key to ensuring their efficient operation.Notably,few studies have examined the interaction between the carbon and electricity markets using system dynamics models,highlighting a research gap in this area.This study investigates the impact of the carbon market on the investment of power-grid enterprises using a novel evaluation system based on a system dynamics model that considers carbon-emissions from an established carbon-emission accounting model.First,an index system for benefit evaluation was constructed from six aspects:financing ability,economic benefit,reliability,social responsibility,user satisfaction,and carbon-emissions.A system dynamics model was then developed to reflect the causal feedback relationship between the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.The simulation results of a provincial power-grid enterprise analyze comprehensive investment evaluation benefits over a 10-year period and the impact of carbon emissions on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.This study provides guidelines for the benign development of power-grid enterprises within the context of the carbon market.展开更多
Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of...Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.展开更多
In today’s society with advanced Internet,the amount of information increases dramatically with each passing day,which leads to increasingly complex processes of open-source intelligence.Therefore,it is more importan...In today’s society with advanced Internet,the amount of information increases dramatically with each passing day,which leads to increasingly complex processes of open-source intelligence.Therefore,it is more important to rationalize the operation mode and improve the operation efficiency of open-source intelligence under the premise of satisfying users’needs.This paper focuses on the simulation study of the process system of opensource intelligence from the user’s perspective.First,the basic concept and development status of open-source intelligence are introduced in details.Second,six existing intelligence operation process models are summarized and their advantages and disadvantages are compared in focus.Based on users’preference,the open-source intelligence system simulation theory model is constructed from four aspects:intelligence collection,intelligence processing,intelligence analysis,and intelligence delivery.Meanwhile,the dynamics model of the open-source intelligence process system is constructed based on the open-source intelligence system simulation theoretical model,which specifically includes five parts:determination of system boundary,construction of causal loop diagram,construction of stock flow diagram,writing ofmathematical equations,and system sensitivity test.Finally,the system simulation results were analyzed.It was found that improving the system of intelligence agencies,opening up government affairs,improving the professional level of intelligence personnel,strengthening the communication and cooperation among personnel of various intelligence departments,and expressing intelligence products through diverse forms can effectively improve the operational efficiency of the open-source intelligence process system.展开更多
Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environm...Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.展开更多
The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to m...The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.展开更多
Sustainable performance is expected to become a major factor when examining the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its life cycle performance. The study on which this paper is based developed a simulati...Sustainable performance is expected to become a major factor when examining the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its life cycle performance. The study on which this paper is based developed a simulation model, using system dy- namics methodology, to assess the sustainable performance of projects. Three major factors are used to examine project sus- tainable performance (PSP): the sustainability of economic development (E), the sustainability of social development (S), and the sustainability of environmental development (En). Sustainable development ability (SDA) was used as a prototype to evaluate the degree of sustainable performance. The simulation software ‘ithink’ was used to help with the application of the model to a real life case. This paper explains and demonstrates the procedures used to develop the model and finally offers an approach for assessing the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its sustainable performance.展开更多
Port-city system is a complex and integral system, and it can be simulated by system dynamic method, which is used to be employed to solve nonlinear problems. Based on the causality of the every element in the port-ci...Port-city system is a complex and integral system, and it can be simulated by system dynamic method, which is used to be employed to solve nonlinear problems. Based on the causality of the every element in the port-city system, the authors analyzed the feedback relation and logical relation among the system variables and system structure. A system-dynamic flow chart and correlation equations were put forward with VENSIM software, the quantitative relation was described, and the model was debugged. The development trend of the main influence factors in port-city system was simulated. By changing the influence degree of each related factor. It is found the parameters values of variables in the model, we studied that： 1） Foreign trade throughput of port play an important role in the development of export-oriented economy. 2） The development of primary industry and secondary industry affects most of the water transportation demand. With the constant increase of tertiary industry proportion in the industrial structure, the demand of national economy for water transportation decreases gradually. 3） Water transportation presents a kind of oversupply development situation, so port construction should properly slow down. 4） With the development of ports, its direct and indirect contribution to urban economy has been continuously increasing, but contribution rate will be continuously decreasing.展开更多
By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implicat...By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized.展开更多
A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of...A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.展开更多
Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption struct...Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.展开更多
In this paper, the conservation laws of generalized Birkhoff system in event space are studied by using the method of integrating factors. Firstly, the generalized Pfaff-Birkhoff principle and the generalized Birkhoff...In this paper, the conservation laws of generalized Birkhoff system in event space are studied by using the method of integrating factors. Firstly, the generalized Pfaff-Birkhoff principle and the generalized Birkhoff equations are established, and the definition of the integrating factors for the system is given. Secondly, based on the concept of integrating factors, the conservation theorems and their inverse for the generalized Birkhoff system in the event space are presented in detail, and the relation between the conservation laws and the integrating factors of the system is obtained and the generalized Killing equations for the determination of the integrating factors are given. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the application of the results.展开更多
Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and...Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.展开更多
System dynamics (SD) theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability po...System dynamics (SD) theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the "Wen, Pi, Du" county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.展开更多
The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of syste...The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends.展开更多
Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable d...Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.展开更多
A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elem...A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.展开更多
System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates ...System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.展开更多
Background:Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation.These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected,and ...Background:Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation.These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected,and it is important that modellers remain mindful of assumptions and remain diligent with sensitivity testing.Methods:Familiarity with a technique can lead to complacency,and alternative approaches and software can reveal untested assumptions.Visual modelling environments based on system dynamics may help to make critical assumptions more evident by offering an accessible visual overview and empowering a focus on representational rather than computational efficiency.This capacity is illustrated using a cohort-based forest growth model developed for mixed species forest.Results:The alternative model implementation revealed that untested assumptions in the original model could have substantial influence on simulated outcomes.Conclusions:An important implication is that modellers should remain conscious of all assumptions,consider alternative implementations that reveal assumptions more clearly,and conduct sensitivity tests to inform decisions.展开更多
The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national dev...The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.展开更多
文摘Based on the system dynamic model, a full system dynamics estimation method is proposed for a chain shell magazine driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). An adaptive extended state observer(AESO) is proposed to estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance, in which the model parameters are adjusted in real time. Theoretical analysis shows that the estimation errors of the disturbances and unmeasured states converge exponentially to zero, and the parameter estimation error can be obtained from the extended state. Then, based on the extended state of the AESO, a novel parameter estimation law is designed. Due to the convergence of AESO, the novel parameter estimation law is insensitive to controllers and excitation signal. Under persistent excitation(PE) condition, the estimated parameters will converge to a compact set around the actual parameter value. Without PE signal, the estimated parameters will converge to zero for the extended state. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance of the chain shell magazine, and the estimated parameters will converge to the actual value without strictly continuous PE signals.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52107087).
文摘The power grid,as the hub connecting the power supply and consumption sides,plays an important role in achieving carbon neutrality in China.In emerging carbon markets,assessing the investment benefits of power-grid enterprises is essential.Thus,studying the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of powergrid enterprises is key to ensuring their efficient operation.Notably,few studies have examined the interaction between the carbon and electricity markets using system dynamics models,highlighting a research gap in this area.This study investigates the impact of the carbon market on the investment of power-grid enterprises using a novel evaluation system based on a system dynamics model that considers carbon-emissions from an established carbon-emission accounting model.First,an index system for benefit evaluation was constructed from six aspects:financing ability,economic benefit,reliability,social responsibility,user satisfaction,and carbon-emissions.A system dynamics model was then developed to reflect the causal feedback relationship between the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.The simulation results of a provincial power-grid enterprise analyze comprehensive investment evaluation benefits over a 10-year period and the impact of carbon emissions on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.This study provides guidelines for the benign development of power-grid enterprises within the context of the carbon market.
文摘Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China under the project“Research on the mechanism of developing and utilizing domestic and foreign open-source intelligence under product-oriented thinking(20BTQ049)”.
文摘In today’s society with advanced Internet,the amount of information increases dramatically with each passing day,which leads to increasingly complex processes of open-source intelligence.Therefore,it is more important to rationalize the operation mode and improve the operation efficiency of open-source intelligence under the premise of satisfying users’needs.This paper focuses on the simulation study of the process system of opensource intelligence from the user’s perspective.First,the basic concept and development status of open-source intelligence are introduced in details.Second,six existing intelligence operation process models are summarized and their advantages and disadvantages are compared in focus.Based on users’preference,the open-source intelligence system simulation theory model is constructed from four aspects:intelligence collection,intelligence processing,intelligence analysis,and intelligence delivery.Meanwhile,the dynamics model of the open-source intelligence process system is constructed based on the open-source intelligence system simulation theoretical model,which specifically includes five parts:determination of system boundary,construction of causal loop diagram,construction of stock flow diagram,writing ofmathematical equations,and system sensitivity test.Finally,the system simulation results were analyzed.It was found that improving the system of intelligence agencies,opening up government affairs,improving the professional level of intelligence personnel,strengthening the communication and cooperation among personnel of various intelligence departments,and expressing intelligence products through diverse forms can effectively improve the operational efficiency of the open-source intelligence process system.
文摘Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951004)a project of Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences (XJYS0907-2009-02)
文摘The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.
基金Project supported by the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong,China
文摘Sustainable performance is expected to become a major factor when examining the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its life cycle performance. The study on which this paper is based developed a simulation model, using system dy- namics methodology, to assess the sustainable performance of projects. Three major factors are used to examine project sus- tainable performance (PSP): the sustainability of economic development (E), the sustainability of social development (S), and the sustainability of environmental development (En). Sustainable development ability (SDA) was used as a prototype to evaluate the degree of sustainable performance. The simulation software ‘ithink’ was used to help with the application of the model to a real life case. This paper explains and demonstrates the procedures used to develop the model and finally offers an approach for assessing the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its sustainable performance.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40871063)
文摘Port-city system is a complex and integral system, and it can be simulated by system dynamic method, which is used to be employed to solve nonlinear problems. Based on the causality of the every element in the port-city system, the authors analyzed the feedback relation and logical relation among the system variables and system structure. A system-dynamic flow chart and correlation equations were put forward with VENSIM software, the quantitative relation was described, and the model was debugged. The development trend of the main influence factors in port-city system was simulated. By changing the influence degree of each related factor. It is found the parameters values of variables in the model, we studied that： 1） Foreign trade throughput of port play an important role in the development of export-oriented economy. 2） The development of primary industry and secondary industry affects most of the water transportation demand. With the constant increase of tertiary industry proportion in the industrial structure, the demand of national economy for water transportation decreases gradually. 3） Water transportation presents a kind of oversupply development situation, so port construction should properly slow down. 4） With the development of ports, its direct and indirect contribution to urban economy has been continuously increasing, but contribution rate will be continuously decreasing.
文摘By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.50638020)
文摘A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71273021 and 7167030506)
文摘Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 10572021
文摘In this paper, the conservation laws of generalized Birkhoff system in event space are studied by using the method of integrating factors. Firstly, the generalized Pfaff-Birkhoff principle and the generalized Birkhoff equations are established, and the definition of the integrating factors for the system is given. Secondly, based on the concept of integrating factors, the conservation theorems and their inverse for the generalized Birkhoff system in the event space are presented in detail, and the relation between the conservation laws and the integrating factors of the system is obtained and the generalized Killing equations for the determination of the integrating factors are given. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the application of the results.
文摘Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.
文摘System dynamics (SD) theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the "Wen, Pi, Du" county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41171099)National Key Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB955802)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.10ZD&022)
文摘The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends.
文摘Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50578108)Doctoral Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (No.20050056016)+3 种基金National Key Program for Basic Research ( "973" Program, No.2007CB407306-1)Science and Technology Development Foundation of Tianjin (No.033113811 and No.05YFSYSF032)Educational Commission of Hebei Province (No.2008324)Tianjin Social Key Foundation (No.tjyy08-01-078).
文摘A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.
文摘System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.
文摘Background:Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation.These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected,and it is important that modellers remain mindful of assumptions and remain diligent with sensitivity testing.Methods:Familiarity with a technique can lead to complacency,and alternative approaches and software can reveal untested assumptions.Visual modelling environments based on system dynamics may help to make critical assumptions more evident by offering an accessible visual overview and empowering a focus on representational rather than computational efficiency.This capacity is illustrated using a cohort-based forest growth model developed for mixed species forest.Results:The alternative model implementation revealed that untested assumptions in the original model could have substantial influence on simulated outcomes.Conclusions:An important implication is that modellers should remain conscious of all assumptions,consider alternative implementations that reveal assumptions more clearly,and conduct sensitivity tests to inform decisions.
基金Supported by the National Science&Technology Pillar Program(No.2012BAC20B09)
文摘The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.
